politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first months of a Corbyn government

kyf_100 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

edmundintokyo said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

The belief that all land ultimately belongs to the state and tax policy is levied accordingly is bad economics. It’s impoverished every country where it’s been tried.

The belief that the state can tax pretty much anything it can measure without needing to own it is pretty standard market economics, and has made all the countries that are currently rich rich.

And there was me thinking that rich countries were those that encouraged private enterprise, business investment, R&D and set tax rates accordingly. Don’t see anything recognisably Corbynite in any of those.

And you see that in May's government? Brexit has destroyed all of that - business has provided detailed analysis of hard Brexit contrary to cakeist Tory fantasies only to be told "fuck business". With the understandable continuation of lack of business investment. R&D is what bits are begged by government - such as the cash given to Dyson only for manufacturing to be announced elsewhere. Then we have the governments cuts to physical infrastructure etc etc.

What you will get with a Corbyn investment is Capitalism 101. Borrow. Invest in projects which deliver a return on that investment. Receive more income. Repeat the cycle to drive further growth. Slashing investment and services to the bone - what the Tories do - is reverse capitalism.

Which is why I think this is such a clever attack video. Regardless of whether or not you agree with the economics of it all, it explains the point you have just made in a way the layman will find easy to understand and agree with.

https://www.facebook.com/JeremyCorbynMP/videos/308880119676193/

So Corbynomics is to make our over-reliant on internal consumption even more so ?

Blimey.

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1071695919626772481

Pathetic if true. Firstly, why would they believe anything she says? Secondly, how does her leaving after the Deal is rammed through change any of the things they hate about it? Thirdly, how does throwing around petty threats about Christmas do anything to foster good will?

That's a meaningless deal. When the deal goes down in flames she'll be gone soon enough anyway.

edmundintokyo said:

ydoethur said:

He also intended to fund free school meals by a huge levy on private school meals, and charge business rates for all schools including charities.

Was that in the manifesto???

Yes. His figures simply didn't add up as a result.

Anyway, I have to go. Have a good morning.

ydoethur said:

edmundintokyo said:

ydoethur said:

He also intended to fund free school meals by a huge levy on private school meals, and charge business rates for all schools including charities.

Was that in the manifesto???

Yes.

What the hell is a "levy on Private School Meals"? It wouldn't shut private schools, it would just stop private school meals!

HYUFD said:

If Corbyn gets in it will likely be reliant on SNP and even LD votes. That means it would effectively be a BINO Brexit with not only permanent Customs Union as Corbyn wants but thanks to the SNP permanent Single Market too.


Meanwhile as Labour slams higher taxes on the rich and wealthy there will start to be a 'brain drain' of our most talented to the likes of Monaco and Singapore and Switzerland much as there was when Hollande was elected and he set on his initial course of high taxes. Nationalisations will also move forward starting with the Royal Mail, key utilities like gas, water and electricity and rail and moving on from there.


Once in office without the burden of responsibility the Tories can offer clear blue water with Corbyn Labour, probably under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson, on a pure Brexit, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, low tax populist agenda. If the evidence of the Hollande administration is anything to go by the Tories could have a double-digit lead within a year

Plus a second Scottish Referendum

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1071695919626772481

Pathetic if true. Firstly, why would they believe anything she says? Secondly, how does her leaving after the Deal is rammed through change any of the things they hate about it? Thirdly, how does throwing around petty threats about Christmas do anything to foster good will?

May resigning only after she has forced through her shit deal is kinda missing the point. Her successor, the activists, the members, the voters - they don't want us tied to a permanent shit deal in the first place.

Plus, these same MPs she is "bargaining" with can boot her out tomorrow, if they are so minded. She doesn't exactly have security of tenure.

Pulpstar said:

kyf_100 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

edmundintokyo said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

The belief that all land ultimately belongs to the state and tax policy is levied accordingly is bad economics. It’s impoverished every country where it’s been tried.

The belief that the state can tax pretty much anything it can measure without needing to own it is pretty standard market economics, and has made all the countries that are currently rich rich.

And there was me thinking that rich countries were those that encouraged private enterprise, business investment, R&D and set tax rates accordingly. Don’t see anything recognisably Corbynite in any of those.

And you see that in May's government? Brexit has destroyed all of that - business has provided detailed analysis of hard Brexit contrary to cakeist Tory fantasies only to be told "fuck business". With the understandable continuation of lack of business investment. R&D is what bits are begged by government - such as the cash given to Dyson only for manufacturing to be announced elsewhere. Then we have the governments cuts to physical infrastructure etc etc.

What you will get with a Corbyn investment is Capitalism 101. Borrow. Invest in projects which deliver a return on that investment. Receive more income. Repeat the cycle to drive further growth. Slashing investment and services to the bone - what the Tories do - is reverse capitalism.

Which is why I think this is such a clever attack video. Regardless of whether or not you agree with the economics of it all, it explains the point you have just made in a way the layman will find easy to understand and agree with.

https://www.facebook.com/JeremyCorbynMP/videos/308880119676193/

So Corbynomics is to make our over-reliant on internal consumption even more so ?

Blimey.

Heh. Well, I said whether you agree with it or not it's a convincing way of explaining a keynesian POV to people who aren't economists and just wonder why they haven't had a pay rise in ten years.

FWIW I think brexitism and Corbynism both have a whiff of autarky about them.

AmpfieldAndy said:

edmundintokyo said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

A Corbyn Gov will mean economic amageddon. Businesses who can leave the U.K., will. McDonnell will impose his manifesto land tax proposals effectively charging people extortionate rents for living in their own homes; we’ll see a plethora of strikes and the lack of investment we are seeing now will get worse. There will be an huge outflow of capital before he takes office. There will be a ton of money chucked at public services and it won’t make bit of difference to them. Renationalisation will be expensive and pointless achieving nothing. Inflation will be back with a vengeance forcing interest rates up and there will be a run on the £.

The Tories will have no one to blame but themselves for sticking with May for so long and making Corbyn so appealing to so many.

A land tax is good neo-liberal economics. I don't doubt that the voters would hate it, but it's definitely not the kind of thing that would cause capital flight.

The belief that all land ultimately belongs to the state and tax policy is levied accordingly is bad economics. It’s impoverished every country where it’s been tried.

I think the state owns all land in Hong Kong and has substantially relied on leases for revenue. Hong Kong is a notably prosperous as well as a somewhat right wing libertarian kind of place.

ydoethur said:

alex. said:

ydoethur said:

edmundintokyo said:

ydoethur said:

He also intended to fund free school meals by a huge levy on private school meals, and charge business rates for all schools including charities.

Was that in the manifesto???

Yes.

What the hell is a "levy on Private School Meals"? It wouldn't shut private schools, it would just stop private school meals!

You are suggesting children in boarding schools should not be permitted to eat? That strikes me as a strange position.

Have a good morning.

What i mean is that the schools would find some other way to get food to children that doesn't meet the definition of whatever "private school meals" is. Maybe they'd all be given an allowance to go and purchase food from a "nearby restaurant".

RochdalePioneers said:

kyf_100 said:

Which is why I think this is such a clever attack video. Regardless of whether or not you agree with the economics of it all, it explains the point you have just made in a way the layman will find easy to understand and agree with.

https://www.facebook.com/JeremyCorbynMP/videos/308880119676193/

Capitalism (the working example not the Marx definition) used to operate on these cycles. And what's more the big players in capitalism understood that in order to sell their product/service they needed not just a product that people wanted to but but also consumers with the wherewithal to buy. That means leaving people with surplus income where the cost of living is lower than wages so that they can consume.

When consumption wasn't enough for the quarterly stock exchange reporting cycle (having been perfectly fine on the old longer cycles of not having everything floated) a way was found to give people more money- credit. After the crash credit has been tighter and we had a decade of wage stagnation and soaring living costs. Which is how we have so many people working and just about managing.

How to break the cycle? Invest. The Tories have burned through a trillion quid without investing as austerity slowly braked economic performance. Let the government borrow at near zero interest rates, slam the money into economy driving infrastructure projects, offer business incentive to invest* and we breathe life back into an economy that actually works for most people

Personal debt has increased for several years. Consumer credit, student debt and mortgage debt have all increased.

TheJezziah said:

alex. said:

ydoethur said:

edmundintokyo said:

ydoethur said:

He also intended to fund free school meals by a huge levy on private school meals, and charge business rates for all schools including charities.

Was that in the manifesto???

Yes.

What the hell is a "levy on Private School Meals"? It wouldn't shut private schools, it would just stop private school meals!

Struggling to find it in the manifesto tbh... wondering if Ydoethur is trolling us...

Indeed @ydoethur is mistaken. Presume he was thinking of this (p38):

"To aid attainment, we will introduce free school meals for all primary school children, paid for by removing the VAT exemption on private school fees."

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

If Corbyn gets in it will likely be reliant on SNP and even LD votes. That means it would effectively be a BINO Brexit with not only permanent Customs Union as Corbyn wants but thanks to the SNP permanent Single Market too.


Meanwhile as Labour slams higher taxes on the rich and wealthy there will start to be a 'brain drain' of our most talented to the likes of Monaco and Singapore and Switzerland much as there was when Hollande was elected and he set on his initial course of high taxes. Nationalisations will also move forward starting with the Royal Mail, key utilities like gas, water and electricity and rail and moving on from there.


Once in office without the burden of responsibility the Tories can offer clear blue water with Corbyn Labour, probably under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson, on a pure Brexit, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, low tax populist agenda. If the evidence of the Hollande administration is anything to go by the Tories could have a double-digit lead within a year

Plus a second Scottish Referendum

Actually far less likely under PM Corbyn than under No Deal, after all the only polls which have Yes ahead in Scotland are under a hard Brexit No Deal scenario. If Corbyn becomes PM and we get permanent Customs Union and Single Market anyway, which would be likely due to his reliance on the SNP, the SNP would have far less grounds to call a referendum as Brexit would be based on the SNP's core policy

There will be no PM Corbyn then , that will be minimum for SNP to support the idiot.

Benpointer said:

TheJezziah said:

alex. said:

ydoethur said:

edmundintokyo said:

ydoethur said:

He also intended to fund free school meals by a huge levy on private school meals, and charge business rates for all schools including charities.

Was that in the manifesto???

Yes.

What the hell is a "levy on Private School Meals"? It wouldn't shut private schools, it would just stop private school meals!

Struggling to find it in the manifesto tbh... wondering if Ydoethur is trolling us...

Indeed @ydoethur is mistaken. Presume he was thinking of this (p38):

"To aid attainment, we will introduce free school meals for all primary school children, paid for by removing the VAT exemption on private school fees."

His main theme is correct , Corbyn would bankrupt most of the private schools and put a huge burden on the state to pick up the bill, the man is a moron.

HYUFD said:

Once in office without the burden of responsibility the Tories can offer clear blue water with Corbyn Labour, probably under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson, on a pure Brexit, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, low tax populist agenda. If the evidence of the Hollande administration is anything to go by the Tories could have a double-digit lead within a year

I share your concerns about the likely effects of a Corbyn Government - as poor as the current Government is, I don't trust a populist Left alternative not to wreck the economy - but the idea that the Tories are willing or able to stand on a low tax platform anymore is questionable to put it mildly.

The Conservatives are the party of the old, and the old adore taxation - so long as it doesn't affect their property. They expect to be paid gold-plated pensions and to have their joints replaced and their bottoms wiped for free when they become infirm, and they are quite happy to see the rest of us taxed into the ground to pay for it.

If that sounds like a despairing call to inter-generational warfare then it isn't meant as such. What is actually required is some relief from ever-higher taxes for the working age population, more investment in the interests of the young, and for better-off older people to accept that they may have to pass on a nest egg rather than a fortune to their offspring after they have died, in order that the country may continue to be a fit place to live in the present time.

The Conservatives cannot offer a low-tax platform because there are too many people who are dependent on the state, and most of those are older people who also form their core vote. This also means that, faced with the need to levy hefty taxation (and I believe that the total tax burden is the highest it has been for half-a-century,) they tax the wrong things and cut the wrong things.

What is desperately needed is a Government that will operate just a bit less in the interest of the old and a bit more in the interest of the young, to put the public finances on a genuinely sustainable footing. Tragically, what we're liable to get with Labour is a Government that uses yet more borrowing and short-sighted impositions on business in a vain attempt to dodge all the difficult decisions.

That's our problem as a country. Everyone expects everyone else to pay for loads of stuff for them, the politicians respond with unrealistic and myopic ideas, they keep on failing, and so we lurch from left to right to left to right to left to right, with society growing progressively more stressed with the passing of each electoral cycle.

And one thing of which I'm as certain as I can be is that Boris Johnson as Prime Minister does not represent much of a solution to anything. Clueless professional politicians are bad enough; God defend us from Government by journalists.

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1071695919626772481

Pathetic if true. Firstly, why would they believe anything she says? Secondly, how does her leaving after the Deal is rammed through change any of the things they hate about it? Thirdly, how does throwing around petty threats about Christmas do anything to foster good will?

The Deal is the ONLY one on the table, it does not matter whether May or anyone else is PM there is no alternative without the backstop. There is no majority in the Commons for leaving without No Deal so a likely alternative would be PM Rudd or Lidington by some sort of coronation and Norway+ and permanent Customs Union for which there is likely a majority in the Commons

There is no polling on Norway+. It is likely that when spelt out to them, a significant majority will say "fuck that....". Certainly amongst Tory voters.

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

If Corbyn gets in it will likely be reliant on SNP and even LD votes. That means it would effectively be a BINO Brexit with not only permanent Customs Union as Corbyn wants but thanks to the SNP permanent Single Market too.


Meanwhile as Labour slams higher taxes on the rich and wealthy there will start to be a 'brain drain' of our most talented to the likes of Monaco and Singapore and Switzerland much as there was when Hollande was elected and he set on his initial course of high taxes. Nationalisations will also move forward starting with the Royal Mail, key utilities like gas, water and electricity and rail and moving on from there.


Once in office without the burden of responsibility the Tories can offer clear blue water with Corbyn Labour, probably under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson, on a pure Brexit, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, low tax populist agenda. If the evidence of the Hollande administration is anything to go by the Tories could have a double-digit lead within a year

Plus a second Scottish Referendum

Actually far less likely under PM Corbyn than under No Deal, after all the only polls which have Yes ahead in Scotland are under a hard Brexit No Deal scenario. If Corbyn becomes PM and we get permanent Customs Union and Single Market anyway, which would be likely due to his reliance on the SNP, the SNP would have far less grounds to call a referendum as Brexit would be based on the SNP's core policy

There will be no PM Corbyn then , that will be minimum for SNP to support the idiot.

It won't be as Sturgeon and Blackford have made quite clear they will only call indyref2 if they do not get their 'compromise Brexit' of permanent single market and customs union or EUref2. If Corbyn essentially agrees the former hence in the SNP's own words no need for indyref2

The need for one is never the point it's the desire for one.

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Thanks for the header, Nick, which seems fair enough from a Labour loyalist perspective. However, I’m expecting the Conservatives to crawl all the way to 2022.

What happens after that is currently unknowable.

Not expecting much legislation passed in that time I imagine. Deal or no deal some pissed off Tories will use every excuse to rebel.

I’m expecting it to be a placeholder government, dismal, degraded and enervated.

Someone imaginative as Prime Minister in that time could use it to put forward a string of populist policies that Parliament would vote down, as an extended trailer for their next manifesto. The Conservatives don’t seem long on imaginative senior politicians.

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

edmundintokyo said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

A Corbyn Gov will mean economic amageddon. Businesses who can leave the U.K., will. McDonnell will impose his manifesto land tax proposals effectively charging people extortionate rents for living in their own homes; we’ll see a plethora of strikes and the lack of investment we are seeing now will get worse. There will be an huge outflow of capital before he takes office. There will be a ton of money chucked at public services and it won’t make bit of difference to them. Renationalisation will be expensive and pointless achieving nothing. Inflation will be back with a vengeance forcing interest rates up and there will be a run on the £.

The Tories will have no one to blame but themselves for sticking with May for so long and making Corbyn so appealing to so many.

A land tax is good neo-liberal economics. I don't doubt that the voters would hate it, but it's definitely not the kind of thing that would cause capital flight.

The belief that all land ultimately belongs to the state and tax policy is levied accordingly is bad economics. It’s impoverished every country where it’s been tried.

Hmmm.

Just in case you were unaware of this, since the Battle of Hastings in 1066 all land in the country *does* technically belong to the Crown.

That is why the title deeds of a property refer to 'freehold.' You hold it free of any third party directly from the King or in this case, queen.

And it can be taken away - most commonly in the Middle Ages by Bill of Attainder.

How many bills of attainder have there been since say the last 100 or 200 years and council tax is not the wealth tax included in Labour’s last manifesto.

None since 1870 when it was officially abolished.

However, it is part of the basis of the Proceeds of Crime Act 2002, which has been used more than once.

That is curious. The US, whose constitutions, both federal and state, ban bills of attainder, has similar legislation without recourse to them.

I believe Churchill considered their use against captured Nazis during WWII as a means of executing them without trial, but was dissuaded.

Marr reports Lidington now believes a second referendum is the most likely alternative if the Deal is voted down with the highest number of potential votes in Parliament

"Labour's John McDonnell said a "network of hate" was emerging."

Ah, that's referring to a 'Brexit Betrayal' march.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46495595

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

kle4 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Thanks for the header, Nick, which seems fair enough from a Labour loyalist perspective. However, I’m expecting the Conservatives to crawl all the way to 2022.

What happens after that is currently unknowable.

Not expecting much legislation passed in that time I imagine. Deal or no deal some pissed off Tories will use every excuse to rebel.

I’m expecting it to be a placeholder government, dismal, degraded and enervated.

Someone imaginative as Prime Minister in that time could use it to put forward a string of populist policies that Parliament would vote down, as an extended trailer for their next manifesto. The Conservatives don’t seem long on imaginative senior politicians.

Indeed. But could such a dismal government drag on for 3 years?

I think if they can get through the next 6 months they might go the distance, I'm just not certain they can manage that. The procedural problems in calling an election is the only thing keeping them there.

When I have time I have a thread header to write on this subject. My hunch is that we’re as likely to see two new Prime Ministers before the general election as as we are to see a general election next year.

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Kwasi Kwarteng refuses to rule out resigning if the Deal fails and is replaced by the Norway option as it requires free movement. Says No Deal would lead to deep uncertainty

So if he doesn't want free movement or no deal what will those like him do after the deal fails? He's ruled out no deal, remain and the most talked about alternative. Since he has to do something what is left? Surely only a referendum?

Anyway the EU know how important the Freedom of Movement thing in the whole Brexit debate. Even if a British Govt try to brush over it in the desperation to secure an alternative deal, i would suspect that the EU would think twice. They know that it won't pass the HoC once the public get to know about it.

What, we've gone through this whole brexit thing because the EU won't provide concessions on Freedom of Movement and then our ultimate Brexit deal has no limitations on Freedom of movement? It obviously won't wash.

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

Marr reports Lidington now believes a second referendum is the most likely alternative if the Deal is voted down with the highest number of potential votes in Parliament

WHAT IS THE QUESTION????? Does nobody ever answer this?

We will drift into a planning-free No Deal whilst MPs fight about the various multiple referendum questions.

With Corbyn's acquiesence. He will be happy enough with the Tories getting the blame for a No Deal Brexit (which he could have stopped) whilst Brexit gets delivered.

RochdalePioneers said:

kyf_100 said:

Which is why I think this is such a clever attack video. Regardless of whether or not you agree with the economics of it all, it explains the point you have just made in a way the layman will find easy to understand and agree with.

https://www.facebook.com/JeremyCorbynMP/videos/308880119676193/

Capitalism (the working example not the Marx definition) used to operate on these cycles. And what's more the big players in capitalism understood that in order to sell their product/service they needed not just a product that people wanted to but but also consumers with the wherewithal to buy. That means leaving people with surplus income where the cost of living is lower than wages so that they can consume.

When consumption wasn't enough for the quarterly stock exchange reporting cycle (having been perfectly fine on the old longer cycles of not having everything floated) a way was found to give people more money- credit. After the crash credit has been tighter and we had a decade of wage stagnation and soaring living costs. Which is how we have so many people working and just about managing.

How to break the cycle? Invest. The Tories have burned through a trillion quid without investing as austerity slowly braked economic performance. Let the government borrow at near zero interest rates, slam the money into economy driving infrastructure projects, offer business incentive to invest* and we breathe life back into an economy that actually works for most people

You're contradicting yourself.

You say credit has been tighter then say the government has burned through a trillion quid.

Where do you think most of that trillion quid went ?

Imported consumer tat and foreign holidays.

Now if you want more infrastructure and business investment then that's fine with me - but it will come at a cost of reduced consumer spending as the balance in the economy changes.

'Scottish independence would be better than a no-deal Brexit, say 59%, with 41% disagreeing. While 53% say independence would benefit the country more than staying in the UK but outside the EU under a negotiated Brexit deal, 47% take the opposite view.

But there is still a hesitancy to actually vote for independence. Now backed by 47%' 53% No

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scottish-independence-better-than-brexit-htt8lbwvc

SandyRentool said:

I see that the notion of a Labour government has got the blinkered right wing ideologues out in force this morning.

For the many, not the few, comrades.

shaft the many more like

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

If Corbyn gets in it will likely be reliant on SNP and even LD votes. That means it would effectively be a BINO Brexit with not only permanent Customs Union as Corbyn wants but thanks to the SNP permanent Single Market too.


Meanwhile as Labour slams higher taxes on the rich and wealthy there will start to be a 'brain drain' of our most talented to the likes of Monaco and Singapore and Switzerland much as there was when Hollande was elected and he set on his initial course of high taxes. Nationalisations will also move forward starting with the Royal Mail, key utilities like gas, water and electricity and rail and moving on from there.


Once in office without the burden of responsibility the Tories can offer clear blue water with Corbyn Labour, probably under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson, on a pure Brexit, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, low tax populist agenda. If the evidence of the Hollande administration is anything to go by the Tories could have a double-digit lead within a year

Plus a second Scottish Referendum

Actually far less likely under PM Corbyn than under No Deal, after all the only polls which have Yes ahead in Scotland are under a hard Brexit No Deal scenario. If Corbyn becomes PM and we get permanent Customs Union and Single Market anyway, which would be likely due to his reliance on the SNP, the SNP would have far less grounds to call a referendum as Brexit would be based on the SNP's core policy

There will be no PM Corbyn then , that will be minimum for SNP to support the idiot.

It won't be as Sturgeon and Blackford have made quite clear they will only call indyref2 if they do not get their 'compromise Brexit' of permanent single market and customs union or EUref2. If Corbyn essentially agrees the former hence in the SNP's own words no need for indyref2

Then the SNP will be out on their arses

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

Marr reports Lidington now believes a second referendum is the most likely alternative if the Deal is voted down with the highest number of potential votes in Parliament

WHAT IS THE QUESTION????? Does nobody ever answer this?

Most likely a 3 way, Deal, No Deal, Remain either head to head of the former then the latter or under AV

MarqueeMark said:

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

Marr reports Lidington now believes a second referendum is the most likely alternative if the Deal is voted down with the highest number of potential votes in Parliament

WHAT IS THE QUESTION????? Does nobody ever answer this?

We will drift into a planning-free No Deal whilst MPs fight about the various multiple referendum questions.

With Corbyn's acquiesence. He will be happy enough with the Tories getting the blame for a No Deal Brexit (which he could have stopped) whilst Brexit gets delivered.

Except it won't if say May went and Lidington took over as he would immediately prepare for EUref2 with Parliament's support over No Deal if May's Deal failed

AlastairMeeks said:

You can bet on vote bands and if doing so check this out:

https://twitter.com/nicholas_mairs/status/1071704479479812098?s=21

There seems to be a general assumption that the Ayes can only rise. That assumption seems dangerous to me.

It goes against the trend we've seen in parliament. People struggling to accept what the numbers are saying.

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1071695919626772481

Pathetic if true. Firstly, why would they believe anything she says? Secondly, how does her leaving after the Deal is rammed through change any of the things they hate about it? Thirdly, how does throwing around petty threats about Christmas do anything to foster good will?

The Deal is the ONLY one on the table, it does not matter whether May or anyone else is PM there is no alternative without the backstop. There is no majority in the Commons for leaving without No Deal so a likely alternative would be PM Rudd or Lidington by some sort of coronation and Norway+ and permanent Customs Union for which there is likely a majority in the Commons

There is no polling on Norway+. It is likely that when spelt out to them, a significant majority will say "fuck that....". Certainly amongst Tory voters.

As ICM has shown it is No Deal that is the least popular outcome of all with a -33% rating to +7% for Norway


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/libleave_brexit_spectrum.html

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

If Corbyn gets in it will likely be reliant on SNP and even LD votes. That means it would effectively be a BINO Brexit with not only permanent Customs Union as Corbyn wants but thanks to the SNP permanent Single Market too.


Meanwhile as Labour slams higher taxes on the rich and wealthy there will start to be a 'brain drain' of our most talented to the likes of Monaco and Singapore and Switzerland much as there was when Hollande was elected and he set on his initial course of high taxes. Nationalisations will also move forward starting with the Royal Mail, key utilities like gas, water and electricity and rail and moving on from there.


Once in office without the burden of responsibility the Tories can offer clear blue water with Corbyn Labour, probably under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson, on a pure Brexit, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, low tax populist agenda. If the evidence of the Hollande administration is anything to go by the Tories could have a double-digit lead within a year

Plus a second Scottish Referendum

Actually far less likely under PM Corbyn than under No Deal, after all the only polls which have Yes ahead in Scotland are under a hard Brexit No Deal scenario. If Corbyn becomes PM and we get permanent Customs Union and Single Market anyway, which would be likely due to his reliance on the SNP, the SNP would have far less grounds to call a referendum as Brexit would be based on the SNP's core policy

There will be no PM Corbyn then , that will be minimum for SNP to support the idiot.

It won't be as Sturgeon and Blackford have made quite clear they will only call indyref2 if they do not get their 'compromise Brexit' of permanent single market and customs union or EUref2. If Corbyn essentially agrees the former hence in the SNP's own words no need for indyref2

The need for one is never the point it's the desire for one.

If the SNP lose again they lose it for a generation, they only have a desire for one if they do not get EUref2 and Remain or Scotland leaves the Single Market and Customs Union as those are the only circumstances they may win it

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Kwasi Kwarteng refuses to rule out resigning if the Deal fails and is replaced by the Norway option as it requires free movement. Says No Deal would lead to deep uncertainty

So if he doesn't want free movement or no deal what will those like him do after the deal fails? He's ruled out no deal, remain and the most talked about alternative. Since he has to do something what is left? Surely only a referendum?

Quite likely, I think many who back the Deal will back a referendum as the voters prefer it to MPs, certainly head to head with Remain or No Deal

Big_G_NorthWales said:

malcolmg said:

Benpointer said:

TheJezziah said:

alex. said:

ydoethur said:

edmundintokyo said:

ydoethur said:

He also intended to fund free school meals by a huge levy on private school meals, and charge business rates for all schools including charities.

Was that in the manifesto???

Yes.

What the hell is a "levy on Private School Meals"? It wouldn't shut private schools, it would just stop private school meals!

Struggling to find it in the manifesto tbh... wondering if Ydoethur is trolling us...

Indeed @ydoethur is mistaken. Presume he was thinking of this (p38):

"To aid attainment, we will introduce free school meals for all primary school children, paid for by removing the VAT exemption on private school fees."

His main theme is correct , Corbyn would bankrupt most of the private schools and put a huge burden on the state to pick up the bill, the man is a moron.

Corbyn is a real danger to education if he thinks that private school fees are an easy hit.

The number of parents taking their children out of the private school sector would dwarf the VAT income, as it would be substantially less, the private school sector would be crippled, and thousands of children would suddenly have to be accommodated into the education system.

However, this is only one example of how the hard left have no idea of the effect that their policies would have on the wider economy

Morning G, yes and they do not care either, pure ideology and for sure it will not affect the politburo. They will be well looked after.

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

Once in office without the burden of responsibility the Tories can offer clear blue water with Corbyn Labour, probably under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson, on a pure Brexit, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, low tax populist agenda. If the evidence of the Hollande administration is anything to go by the Tories could have a double-digit lead within a year

I share your concerns about the likely effects of a Corbyn Government - as poor as the current Government is, I don't trust a populist Left alternative not to wreck the economy - but the idea that the Tories are willing or able to stand on a low tax platform anymore is questionable to put it mildly.

The Conservatives are the party of the old, and the old adore taxation - so long as it doesn't affect their property. They expect to be paid gold-plated pensions and to have their joints replaced and their bot

What is desperately needed is a Government that will operate just a bit less in the interest of the old and a bit more in the interest of the young, to put the public finances on a genuinely sustainable footing. Tragically, what we're liable to get with Labour is a Government that uses yet more borrowing and short-sighted impositions on business in a vain attempt to dodge all the difficult decisions.

That's our problem as a country. Everyone expects everyone else to pay for loads of stuff for them, the politicians respond with unrealistic and myopic ideas, they keep on failing, and so we lurch from left to right to left to right to left to right, with society growing progressively more stressed with the passing of each electoral cycle.

And one thing of which I'm as certain as I can be is that Boris Johnson as Prime Minister does not represent much of a solution to anything. Clueless professional politicians are bad enough; God defend us from Government by journalists.

Boris would go full Berlusconi, prizes for everyone, tax cuts for the middle aged and young, inheritance tax abolished, higher pensions for the old, a brilliant Brexit out of the EU and the single market and customs union but able to get some sort of trade deal. As leader of the opposition he can promise whatever he wants exactly as Corbyn has and if Corbyn has to deliver his unicorns as PM Boris can pounce when it goes wrong

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

If Corbyn gets in it will likely be reliant on SNP and even LD votes. That means it would effectively be a BINO Brexit with not only permanent Customs Union as Corbyn wants but thanks to the SNP permanent Single Market too.


Meanwhile as Labour slams higher taxes on the rich and wealthy there will start to be a 'brain drain' of our most talented to the likes of Monaco and Singapore and Switzerland much as there was when Hollande was elected and he set on his initial course of high taxes. Nationalisations will also move forward starting with the Royal Mail, key utilities like gas, water and electricity and rail and moving on from there.


Once in office without the burden of responsibility the Tories can offer clear blue water with Corbyn Labour, probably under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson, on a pure Brexit, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, low tax populist agenda. If the evidence of the Hollande administration is anything to go by the Tories could have a double-digit lead within a year

Plus a second Scottish Referendum

Actually far less likely under PM Corbyn than under No Deal, after all the only polls which have Yes ahead in Scotland are under a hard Brexit No Deal scenario. If Corbyn becomes PM and we get permanent Customs Union and Single Market anyway, which would be likely due to his reliance on the SNP, the SNP would have far less grounds to call a referendum as Brexit would be based on the SNP's core policy

There will be no PM Corbyn then , that will be minimum for SNP to support the idiot.

It won't be as Sturgeon and Blackford have made quite clear they will only call indyref2 if they do not get their 'compromise Brexit' of permanent single market and customs union or EUref2. If Corbyn essentially agrees the former hence in the SNP's own words no need for indyref2

The need for one is never the point it's the desire for one.

If the SNP lose again they lose it for a generation, they only have a desire for one if they do not get EUref2 and Remain or Scotland leaves the Single Market and Customs Union as those are the only circumstances they may win it

Rubbish, the people will not support the SNP forever if they are not pushing very very hard for a referendum. I am already hacked off with them increasing my taxes , mucking about with drinks prices and generally poking their beaks into ordinary people's lives rather than less interference and getting on with the job they are there for.

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

Marr reports Lidington now believes a second referendum is the most likely alternative if the Deal is voted down with the highest number of potential votes in Parliament

WHAT IS THE QUESTION????? Does nobody ever answer this?

To be or not to be. That is the question.

Nigelb said:

malcolmg said:

TheJezziah said:

malcolmg said:

Benpointer said:

TheJezziah said:

alex. said:

ydoethur said:

edmundintokyo said:

ydoethur said:

He also intended to fund free school meals by a huge levy on private school meals, and charge business rates for all schools including charities.

Was that in the manifesto???

Yes.

What the hell is a "levy on Private School Meals"? It wouldn't shut private schools, it would just stop private school meals!

Struggling to find it in the manifesto tbh... wondering if Ydoethur is trolling us...

Indeed @ydoethur is mistaken. Presume he was thinking of this (p38):

"To aid attainment, we will introduce free school meals for all primary school children, paid for by removing the VAT exemption on private school fees."

His main theme is correct , Corbyn would bankrupt most of the private schools and put a huge burden on the state to pick up the bill, the man is a moron.

If people want to send their children to private school they will have to pay the fees to keep the place running, those that don't will pressure their representatives into improving school standards for everyone as their children will have to go to such schools. The state shouldn't subsidise better education for the wealthy.

Quite frankly even if it works out economically neutral (and I'll question ydoethurs assessment of Labour policies given his track record on them) it is worth it to improve the education system for everyone else.

All it will do is dumb it down for more people. Where are they going to get the cash to pay for all the extra pupils. How many billions do we still owe from Labour's last PFI shambles, paying a fortune for schools that are substandard..

Yes, the it will “improve the educati9nal system for everyone else” smacks of magical thinking.

I’m not a particular fan of private education, but destroying the bulk of the sector would be highly disruptive in the short to medium term.

Exactly , every private pupil means extra money into the state system for remaining pupils as it reduces numbers. Far better they tried to emulate the private schools and concentrate on educating the children.

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

Marr reports Lidington now believes a second referendum is the most likely alternative if the Deal is voted down with the highest number of potential votes in Parliament

WHAT IS THE QUESTION????? Does nobody ever answer this?

Most likely a 3 way, Deal, No Deal, Remain either head to head of the former then the latter or under AV

Most likely Deal versus Remain.

Over 400 MPs will not allow No Deal on the ballot. 200 Dealers and 200 Remainers will cooperate to agree to a second referendum and agree it will be Deal versus Remain.

MPs don't accept the result of the first referendum - why would they accept the result of a second referenedum?

Rebecca Long-Bailey confirms on Marr Labour's only real difference with May's Deal is on the backstop which they want to deal with via a permanent customs union rather than a temporary one

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

malcolmg said:

HYUFD said:

If Corbyn gets in it will likely be reliant on SNP and even LD votes. That means it would effectively be a BINO Brexit with not only permanent Customs Union as Corbyn wants but thanks to the SNP permanent Single Market too.


Meanwhile as Labour slams higher taxes on the rich and wealthy there will start to be a 'brain drain' of our most talented to the likes of Monaco and Singapore and Switzerland much as there was when Hollande was elected and he set on his initial course of high taxes. Nationalisations will also move forward starting with the Royal Mail, key utilities like gas, water and electricity and rail and moving on from there.


Once in office without the burden of responsibility the Tories can offer clear blue water with Corbyn Labour, probably under Leader of the Opposition Boris Johnson, on a pure Brexit, out of the Single Market and Customs Union, low tax populist agenda. If the evidence of the Hollande administration is anything to go by the Tories could have a double-digit lead within a year

Plus a second Scottish Referendum

Actually far less likely under PM Corbyn than under No Deal, after all the only polls which have Yes ahead in Scotland are under a hard Brexit No Deal scenario. If Corbyn becomes PM and we get permanent Customs Union and Single Market anyway, which would be likely due to his reliance on the SNP, the SNP would have far less grounds to call a referendum as Brexit would be based on the SNP's core policy

There will be no PM Corbyn then , that will be minimum for SNP to support the idiot.

It won't

The need for one is never the point it's the desire for one.

If the SNP lose again they lose it for a generation, they only have a desire for one if they do not get EUref2 and Remain or Scotland leaves the Single Market and Customs Union as those are the only circumstances they may win it

Rubbish, the people will not support the SNP forever if they are not pushing very very hard for a referendum. I am already hacked off with them increasing my taxes , mucking about with drinks prices and generally poking their beaks into ordinary people's lives rather than less interference and getting on with the job they are there for.

Sturgeon is like May, a ditherer, if you want full speed to nationalism you need a Salmond but as Brexiteers need Boris

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

Marr reports Lidington now believes a second referendum is the most likely alternative if the Deal is voted down with the highest number of potential votes in Parliament

WHAT IS THE QUESTION????? Does nobody ever answer this?

Most likely a 3 way, Deal, No Deal, Remain either head to head of the former then the latter or under AV

Most likely Deal versus Remain.

Over 400 MPs will not allow No Deal on the ballot. 200 Dealers and 200 Remainers will cooperate to agree to a second referendum and agree it will be Deal versus Remain.

Whichever of those won that would lead to a third of voters disenfranchised and would be a huge boost to UKIP/Tommy Robinson or Farage's new party

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

MarqueeMark said:

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1071695919626772481

Pathetic if true. Firstly, why would they believe anything she says? Secondly, how does her leaving after the Deal is rammed through change any of the things they hate about it? Thirdly, how does throwing around petty threats about Christmas do anything to foster good will?

The Deal is the ONLY one on the table, it does not matter whether May or anyone else is PM there is no alternative without the backstop. There is no majority in the Commons for leaving without No Deal so a likely alternative would be PM Rudd or Lidington by some sort of coronation and Norway+ and permanent Customs Union for which there is likely a majority in the Commons

There is no polling on Norway+. It is likely that when spelt out to them, a significant majority will say "fuck that....". Certainly amongst Tory voters.

As ICM has shown it is No Deal that is the least popular outcome of all with a -33% rating to +7% for Norway


https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/libleave_brexit_spectrum.html

"This page first posted 31 August 2018, updated 13 September 2018"

You don't think the world might have moved on since this was posted?

And virtually nobody knows what "Norway+" means. Many here don't know. And if the Geekocracy don't know.....

It has not moved on much as the 65% for Deal 35% for No Deal YouGov poll last week showed

Boris on Marr now

David_Evershed said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

alex. said:

HYUFD said:

Marr reports Lidington now believes a second referendum is the most likely alternative if the Deal is voted down with the highest number of potential votes in Parliament

WHAT IS THE QUESTION????? Does nobody ever answer this?

Most likely a 3 way, Deal, No Deal, Remain either head to head of the former then the latter or under AV

Most likely Deal versus Remain.

Over 400 MPs will not allow No Deal on the ballot. 200 Dealers and 200 Remainers will cooperate to agree to a second referendum and agree it will be Deal versus Remain.

MPs don't accept the result of the first referendum - why would they accept the result of a second referenedum?

Because it will give the right answer. Seriously, it will be accepted and will be the last referendum ever.

You would expect the 200 no dealers and 200 dealers to cooperate because they are mostly in the same party but there is a bigger division between them than between Dealers and Remainers.