politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nunc dimittis: Theresa May’s exit approaches
Comments
-
But they'd still insist on the backstop, because the whole point of the backstop is as an insurance policy in case the political declaration doesn't lead into a final state where it's not needed. So an outline agreement that we're aiming for a Norway-ish final state makes zero difference in this respect (although it might bring more MPs on board from opposition parties).grabcocque said:
Norway+ will certainly require both an extension to A50 and a significant renegotiation of both the WA and PD. Would be a seriously big ask of the EU27 unless they believe our pivot is genuine.Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting, but does 'they' in 'they will shift to supporting one of...' refer to the DUP or the government?grabcocque said:
The minutes and hours after the fall of the MV is going to be fascinating. We're going to see political aligments shift at a speed never before observed, as everyone vies to be in commanding position to drive Parliament's attempts to come to a settled view on what to do next.Tissue_Price said:
Parliament can amend the motion all they like, it doesn't change the fact that there is only one deal on the table and, absent it being agreed, we are leaving with No Deal on the 29th March.
The only way to change those facts is to pass new legislation (or take the risk of revoking A50 without an Act of Parliament; I can't see how that case could be decided other than in line with Miller).
Some of the following will happen. Labour will move a VONC, and the DUP will either abstain or vote against, letting the government survive. At that point they will shift to supporting one of:
* A second referendum on deal-vs-remain.
* The Norway+ pivot
But which way will Labour jump? It could go either way, but I think it depends a lot on exactly what happens in those all-important hours after the fall of the Meaningful Vote.
Either way. one difficulty is that a pivot to Norway+ doesn't get round the backstop dead-end.0 -
Have a bad cold, but I thought I heard a vote would be needed to withdraw the vote? Can anyone confirm or deny this?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You may be right but other 'products are available' !!!grabcocque said:
The minutes and hours after the fall of the MV is going to be fascinating. We're going to see political aligments shift at a speed never before observed, as everyone vies to be in commanding position to drive Parliament's attempts to come to a settled view on what to do next.Tissue_Price said:
Parliament can amend the motion all they like, it doesn't change the fact that there is only one deal on the table and, absent it being agreed, we are leaving with No Deal on the 29th March.
The only way to change those facts is to pass new legislation (or take the risk of revoking A50 without an Act of Parliament; I can't see how that case could be decided other than in line with Miller).
Some of the following will happen. Labour will move a VONC, and the DUP will either abstain or vote against, letting the government survive. At that point they will shift to supporting one of:
* A second referendum on deal-vs-remain.
* The Norway+ pivot
But which way will Labour jump? It could go either way, but I think it depends a lot on exactly what happens in those all-important hours after the fall of the Meaningful Vote.
Unless of course TM pulls the vote0 -
What time on Tuesday can we expect the vote?dixiedean said:
Surely we MUST have 48 letters then, too. Which means the Conservative Party tectonic plates will buckle.grabcocque said:
The minutes and hours after the fall of the MV is going to be fascinating. We're going to see political aligments shift at a speed never before observed, as everyone vies to be in commanding position to drive Parliament's attempts to come to a settled view on what to do next.Tissue_Price said:
Parliament can amend the motion all they like, it doesn't change the fact that there is only one deal on the table and, absent it being agreed, we are leaving with No Deal on the 29th March.
The only way to change those facts is to pass new legislation (or take the risk of revoking A50 without an Act of Parliament; I can't see how that case could be decided other than in line with Miller).
Some of the following will happen. Labour will move a VONC, and the DUP will either abstain or vote against, letting the government survive. At that point they will shift to supporting one of:
* A second referendum on deal-vs-remain.
* The Norway+ pivot
But which way will Labour jump? It could go either way, but I think it depends a lot on exactly what happens in those all-important hours after the fall of the Meaningful Vote.
In which case any potential new PM is going to have to get off the fence and outline an at least plausible way forward.*
*Boris, Rees Mogg excepted, natch.
Just looking to plan my evening accordingly - the aftermath could be more exciting than a GE.0 -
I think the DUP have made it pretty clear that they won't support a VONC unless May's deal passes - in which case a VONC won't pass anyway.
0 -
Difficult. The vote has been scheduled by a program motion. To remove it would require the house passing another program motion. Government program motions are rarely pushed to a vote, but if Mrs Leadsom were to try to move a PM to postpone the MV I think she'd find herself on the losing end of a division.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Unless of course TM pulls the vote
0 -
Has he sent a letter to himself yet?Luckyguy1983 said:
I assume he's speaking in his individual capacity as a backbencher rather than as Chairman of the 1922 committee.Pulpstar said:
He's got a huge stack of "Do not open till the meaningful vote" letters hasn't hewilliamglenn said:0 -
You need to read what Melvyn King said - this government has been criminally negligent in its preparations for Brexit.Stark_Dawning said:
Then you shouldn’t have gone ahead with it until you were absolutely certain that one of The Enlightened would be running it, if it was so obvious that a non-Enlightened in control would bring about this disaster.Richard_Tyndall said:
Rubbish. She understands Brexit as well as you do and to be frank I often wonder how you manage to tie your own shoelaces in the morning.Scott_P said:
Another unicornRichard_Tyndall said:We did. We told them it would only work with someone who understood and believed in Brexit in charge.
Theresa May demonstrates more understanding of Brexit than any one of the Brexiteers
Negligence or a deliberate cynical act to get us to this place where our options are quite frankly shit so she hopes we have to say "we better stay" you decide.
Either way utterly unfit to lead this country.
0 -
Who?Pulpstar said:Stephen Lloyd is entirely implicitly correct, the sensible path is to support May's deal then go for another referendum if it fails thereafter. A point of nuance lost on Strong and Cable.
0 -
Tom N D thinks that's correct:dixiedean said:
Have a bad cold, but I thought I heard a vote would be needed to withdraw the vote? Can anyone confirm or deny this?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You may be right but other 'products are available' !!!grabcocque said:
The minutes and hours after the fall of the MV is going to be fascinating. We're going to see political aligments shift at a speed never before observed, as everyone vies to be in commanding position to drive Parliament's attempts to come to a settled view on what to do next.Tissue_Price said:
Parliament can amend the motion all they like, it doesn't change the fact that there is only one deal on the table and, absent it being agreed, we are leaving with No Deal on the 29th March.
The only way to change those facts is to pass new legislation (or take the risk of revoking A50 without an Act of Parliament; I can't see how that case could be decided other than in line with Miller).
Some of the following will happen. Labour will move a VONC, and the DUP will either abstain or vote against, letting the government survive. At that point they will shift to supporting one of:
* A second referendum on deal-vs-remain.
* The Norway+ pivot
But which way will Labour jump? It could go either way, but I think it depends a lot on exactly what happens in those all-important hours after the fall of the Meaningful Vote.
Unless of course TM pulls the vote
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/10704416299353948240 -
Yes, but they believe in Brexit.Scott_P said:
Every time a Brexiteer speaks they prove they know less than the PM.Luckyguy1983 said:A string of memes is not an argument.
And belief is apparently what matters. Forget the complexities caused by reality; if they scrunch their eyes up really hard, cross their fingers and mutter prayers beneath their breath to Saint Farage of Brussels, they can achieve anything! Their righteousness means that their evil foes will give in to any of their wishes!0 -
Indeed. The quality of several regular OP posters puts the national press to shame. Factual and well-balanced. Able to discern the posters personal views without having them front and centre.Benpointer said:Great article Alastair - you should really be writing a regular column for a national broadsheet!
One quibble: Did you mean:
"Hardline Leavers must surely want a Brexit more than a perfect Brexit"
or should that be:
"Hardline Leavers must surely want an imperfect Brexit more than no Brexit"?0 -
Is that the latest spin from the fantasy world of Brexitland? The missed chances of the perfect no-deal Brexit that would have had us immediately better off, if only we had been properly prepared. Yes, I can just see Boris trying to sell that to his monumentally thick following. It would be quite hilarious if it were not so shockingly serious.stodge said:
Nice to see there's still a few prepared to die in the ditch with Theresa.Pulpstar said:Stephen Lloyd is entirely implicitly correct, the sensible path is to support May's deal then go for another referendum if it fails thereafter. A point of nuance lost on Strong and Cable.
She's produced a poor deal which many seem to think isn't worth supporting and because she refused to allow for the contingency planning of No Deal, what might have been an orderly and managed departure from the EU without an agreement risks turning into a national economic disaster.0 -
There are some nasty bugs around. My good lady and I have only just recovered from a respiratory infection lasting 8 weeks.dixiedean said:
Have a bad cold, but I thought I heard a vote would be needed to withdraw the vote? Can anyone confirm or deny this?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You may be right but other 'products are available' !!!grabcocque said:
The minutes and hours after the fall of the MV is going to be fascinating. We're going to see political aligments shift at a speed never before observed, as everyone vies to be in commanding position to drive Parliament's attempts to come to a settled view on what to do next.Tissue_Price said:
Parliament can amend the motion all they like, it doesn't change the fact that there is only one deal on the table and, absent it being agreed, we are leaving with No Deal on the 29th March.
The only way to change those facts is to pass new legislation (or take the risk of revoking A50 without an Act of Parliament; I can't see how that case could be decided other than in line with Miller).
Some of the following will happen. Labour will move a VONC, and the DUP will either abstain or vote against, letting the government survive. At that point they will shift to supporting one of:
* A second referendum on deal-vs-remain.
* The Norway+ pivot
But which way will Labour jump? It could go either way, but I think it depends a lot on exactly what happens in those all-important hours after the fall of the Meaningful Vote.
Unless of course TM pulls the vote
TM can postpone the vote and the media in the last hour or so think it is increasingly likely
Barnier lecturing us today that this is the deal and without it no deal, is only going to anger many more. He should keep quiet until after the vote if it takes place0 -
Tuesday pmBenpointer said:
What time on Tuesday can we expect the vote?dixiedean said:
Surely we MUST have 48 letters then, too. Which means the Conservative Party tectonic plates will buckle.grabcocque said:
The minutes and hours after the fall of the MV is going to be fascinating. We're going to see political aligments shift at a speed never before observed, as everyone vies to be in commanding position to drive Parliament's attempts to come to a settled view on what to do next.Tissue_Price said:
Parliament can amend the motion all they like, it doesn't change the fact that there is only one deal on the table and, absent it being agreed, we are leaving with No Deal on the 29th March.
The only way to change those facts is to pass new legislation (or take the risk of revoking A50 without an Act of Parliament; I can't see how that case could be decided other than in line with Miller).
Some of the following will happen. Labour will move a VONC, and the DUP will either abstain or vote against, letting the government survive. At that point they will shift to supporting one of:
* A second referendum on deal-vs-remain.
* The Norway+ pivot
But which way will Labour jump? It could go either way, but I think it depends a lot on exactly what happens in those all-important hours after the fall of the Meaningful Vote.
In which case any potential new PM is going to have to get off the fence and outline an at least plausible way forward.*
*Boris, Rees Mogg excepted, natch.
Just looking to plan my evening accordingly - the aftermath could be more exciting than a GE.0 -
I suspect that if they abstain young members desperate to remain European citizens will leave in droves (and in tears).Tissue_Price said:
Well, there'll be further Brexit negotiations in any case [even under Remain, one suspects]. If it really comes down to Deal vs No Deal, then letting the Deal through with a GE attached isn't a bad result for Labour.williamglenn said:
That would mean Labour would own this, betray their members and then even if they win the GE they’ll be consumed by further Brexit negotiations.Tissue_Price said:
Labour might abstain at the price of a general election, ideally post-March 29th. Seek to "win the peace" and all that. Quite how that bargain could be struck is beyond me at the moment (obviously there is a NoCon route to one).williamglenn said:
You're forgetting your own usual logic. Why would Labour vote for it?TOPPING said:Good article. She isn't going to resign, however, as the only option is her deal. It's not like Dave in June 2016 leaving it to someone else to negotiate the deal because as you say, there is no time for a new prospectus from the Cons.
The only option is that if the deal fails, and I continue to believe that it won't, then she goes back again the following week with something that would look and sound like a compromise but would likely be a kick into the medium-length grass. Something like an "endeavour to revisit the backstop..." type clause which will buy off the rebels.
Put simply, it is her deal or no deal and it is not going to be no deal.
There isn't going to be any deal acceptable to the DUP, and even in the best case scenario for the government there will be Tory rebels.
There was a comment on BBC World Service that if we leave the trade negotiations could be up to 27x as complex as 2016-18. All member states have a say. It's not a 'simple' series of bilateral talks between Davis/Raab/whoever and Barnier.
Surely Labour realise this? Winning an election is only relatively problem-free for them if
a) we've voted to stay in
or
b) parliament has decided it for us.0 -
Yes but we need to be careful not to go too far the other way. Theresa May's impressive grasp of detail of what she has negotiated does not necessarily mean it is a good deal, still less the best that can have been negotiated.Scott_P said:
Every time a Brexiteer speaks they prove they know less than the PM.Luckyguy1983 said:A string of memes is not an argument.
0 -
Ta.grabcocque said:
Difficult. The vote has been scheduled by a program motion. To remove it would require the house passing another program motion. Government program motions are rarely pushed to a vote, but if Mrs Leadsom were to try to move a PM to postpone the MV I think she'd find herself on the losing end of a division.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Unless of course TM pulls the vote0 -
May in charge of Brexit is up there in the daft stakes with Blair being made middle east peace envoy.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes but we need to be careful not to go too far the other way. Theresa May's impressive grasp of detail of what she has negotiated does not necessarily mean it is a good deal, still less the best that can have been negotiated.Scott_P said:
Every time a Brexiteer speaks they prove they know less than the PM.Luckyguy1983 said:A string of memes is not an argument.
And as successful.
0 -
I'm not suggesting we could.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Can you explain how the UK can export into the EU without their requirements on standards and regulationsPhilip_Thompson said:
I don't understand this logic.Sean_F said:
If at the same time, we were making no financial contributions to the EU, and were exempt from FOM, I would accept that the backstop was mutually uncomfortable, and that each side had good reason to compromise in future negotiations.Philip_Thompson said:Can I please ask a question for any leavers who believe the backstop is a price worth paying to ensure Brexit ... of whom there are a few here, Casino, Sean F and Richard T I believe ... would you say that still if instead of being for Northern Ireland it instead applied to England and Scotland?
If we were being told that upon exit England and Scotland would still in perpetuity be subjected to EU regulations, would in perpetuity be stuck in the customs area . . . And that we would have no MEPs etc to change that and we could never unilaterally end this arrangement, it would take EU permission to change anything and that might never come ...
... if the backstop applies to us would you still think it was a price worth paying?
We will be in a position where we have free trade but on Europes terms and subject to Europes rules and customs. No say in rules or customs and no money or free movement as you say.
Now what is going to change? Unless we are going to restore paying money to them, or going to restore free movement then what do they gain from a free trade deal which isn't entirely written by them to suit them? Unless we are planning to end free trade, start paying or start free movement it looks like the only variable to be changed is to restore control from them to us but what do they gain from that?
But we will need to maintain their regulations on what we import to the UK from outside the EU and not just what we export.0 -
Yes agreed. Many of the PB thread header writers are very good - well done boys and girls!dixiedean said:
Indeed. The quality of several regular OP posters puts the national press to shame. Factual and well-balanced. Able to discern the posters personal views without having them front and centre.Benpointer said:Great article Alastair - you should really be writing a regular column for a national broadsheet!
One quibble: Did you mean:
"Hardline Leavers must surely want a Brexit more than a perfect Brexit"
or should that be:
"Hardline Leavers must surely want an imperfect Brexit more than no Brexit"?
PS: Editing of the headers sometimes leaves a bit to be desired though - I assume that's down to TSE, whom I excuse on the basis he lacks a grammar school education.
0 -
Interestingly the use of Program Motions only became standard practice during the Blair era. Before the use of Program Motions became standard practice, government business was subject to filibustering. And governments would then have to use guillotine motions to bring debate to a close and force a vote.
After Tony Blair's unexpectedly enormous 1997 landslide, Labour whips were uncertain they could maintain discipline in such a large PLP full of young, new people they knew little about.
So the Program Motion began its march to ascendancy. Now almost all government business is covered by PMs, and they're widely regarded as being a much more civil, British way of conducting ourselves than all of that nasty messing about with filibusters and guillotines.
But in this case, there is one side effect: once something is scheduled by a vote of the house, it can also only be unscheduled by another vote of the house.
Which at this time it is unlikely to be minded to do.0 -
Presumably when hardcore Leavers moan that there hasn't been enough preparation for No Deal, they means things like slaughtering the beef herds ready for the market being closed off on 29th March, scrapping the fishing fleets for the same reason, beginning the five-to-ten year project to transform Dover from a RoRo frictionless port to partially LoLo and partially customs-checking port, invading Calais so we can do the same at the other end, that sort of thing. Criminally negligent not to have done all that, natch.0
-
0
-
What is the collective noun for a group of strawmen ?Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably when hardcore Leavers moan that there hasn't been enough preparation for No Deal, they means things like slaughtering the beef herds ready for the market being closed off on 29th March, scrapping the fishing fleets for the same reason, beginning the five-to-ten year project to transform Dover from a RoRo frictionless port to partially LoLo and partially customs-checking port, invading Calais so we can do the same at the other end, that sort of thing. Criminally negligent not to have done all that, natch.
0 -
Mr. Nabavi, point of order: the Morris Dancer Party manifesto did have a commitment to invading France.0
-
If the first vote is defeated then everything is up in the air and the executive can both ignore Grieve's motion and bring back something else to the HoC which is what Grieve wanted in the first place.grabcocque said:
Once more for those at the back:TOPPING said:
Well somehow I am thinking that the Cons will come round. If not on first vote, then on second.
The passing of the Grieve amendment has permanently stripped May of any opportunity to ask Parliament to vote again. Whatever Plan B she wants is now irrelevant, because Parliament will salami-slice and amend it into whatever they want.
May has one *and only one* chance to prevent Parliament from Taking Back Control, and that's win the Meaningful Vote.
And may god have mercy on her soul.
Everyone is approaching the same (potential) amended deal but from different angles. So his amendment becomes trivial. Either the deal or amended deal is able to pass or it is not. That it will be debated does not affect the fact that it still has to pass.
That said, BF might be telling me I am down on my bet that the deal will pass but I refuse to be cowed.0 -
See Joe Gomez of Liverpool fractured his leg v Burnley last night0
-
Good post.Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably when hardcore Leavers moan that there hasn't been enough preparation for No Deal, they means things like slaughtering the beef herds ready for the market being closed off on 29th March, scrapping the fishing fleets for the same reason, beginning the five-to-ten year project to transform Dover from a RoRo frictionless port to partially LoLo and partially customs-checking port, invading Calais so we can do the same at the other end, that sort of thing. Criminally negligent not to have done all that, natch.
However, the point you are missing is that with hardcore Leavers "it is always someone else's fault".0 -
He may not stand again. He may stand and lose. It may be that France's labour market reforms start to have a positive impact, and he ends up getting re-elected.Sean_F said:
If he follows the same trajectory as Hollande he'll be down to single figures before long.david_herdson said:
Apples and pears. The report suggested that Macron would currently win well over his current approval rating in a first round election because although many French don't approve of him, they dislike the alternatives even more.rcs1000 said:
To be fair, they've both lost about the same number of percentage points of support since their election. People forget that Macron only got about 25% in the first roundSean_F said:O/T I see President Macron's approval rating is now down to 18%.
Trump's rating is stellar by comparison (as is May's).
At this point it's a little early to say. But in all the fuss about the fuel taxes, he has successfully increased (albeit modestly) private sector labour mobility, and stripped away a lot of public sector worker provisions. It's not been popular, but it was necessary. And the fuel protests are notable for being the only time he's backed down.0 -
Have just remain on the ballot paper. If they want to look more democratic they could have remain on there twice or even 3 times using AV.Pulpstar said:There is a real problem with what to put on the ballot against remain. Parliament won't countenance no deal, and they'll have just rejected a sensible deal brought forward
This will settle the outcome for a generation.0 -
Dunno, but I've been asking for months what exactly these mysterious preparations which Cameron and then May negligently omitted to do were supposed to be. I haven't had even the glimmer of an answer, nor has there been one from the politicians making the same moan.TGOHF said:
What is the collective noun for a group of strawmen ?Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably when hardcore Leavers moan that there hasn't been enough preparation for No Deal, they means things like slaughtering the beef herds ready for the market being closed off on 29th March, scrapping the fishing fleets for the same reason, beginning the five-to-ten year project to transform Dover from a RoRo frictionless port to partially LoLo and partially customs-checking port, invading Calais so we can do the same at the other end, that sort of thing. Criminally negligent not to have done all that, natch.
Perhaps you could list them for us, just the main ones covering things like agriculture, customs at Dover, car and aerospace manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, that sort of thing.0 -
The Times reported that his Cabinet want to back down on everything (eg reinstating higher tax rates).rcs1000 said:
He may not stand again. He may stand and lose. It may be that France's labour market reforms start to have a positive impact, and he ends up getting re-elected.Sean_F said:
If he follows the same trajectory as Hollande he'll be down to single figures before long.david_herdson said:
Apples and pears. The report suggested that Macron would currently win well over his current approval rating in a first round election because although many French don't approve of him, they dislike the alternatives even more.rcs1000 said:
To be fair, they've both lost about the same number of percentage points of support since their election. People forget that Macron only got about 25% in the first roundSean_F said:O/T I see President Macron's approval rating is now down to 18%.
Trump's rating is stellar by comparison (as is May's).
At this point it's a little early to say. But in all the fuss about the fuel taxes, he has successfully increased (albeit modestly) private sector labour mobility, and stripped away a lot of public sector worker provisions. It's not been popular, but it was necessary. And the fuel protests are notable for being the only time he's backed down.0 -
Mr. Xenon, options could be:
1) Remain
2) Stay
3) J'adore l'EU!
[On a serious note, questions and answers are a serious problem for a theoretical second referendum].0 -
Why not put Remain and Status Quo.Xenon said:
Have just remain on the ballot paper. If they want to look more democratic they could have remain on there twice or even 3 times using AV.Pulpstar said:There is a real problem with what to put on the ballot against remain. Parliament won't countenance no deal, and they'll have just rejected a sensible deal brought forward
This will settle the outcome for a generation.
That will confuse 87.5% of the leavers.0 -
On thus plus side if May, via some miraculous wellspring of convicing power she has heretofore never displayed, is able to wrangle a yes vote on Tuesday, you'll be a shoo-in for punter of the year.TOPPING said:
That said, BF might be telling me I am down on my bet that the deal will pass but I refuse to be cowed.
0 -
They are not alone in that...Benpointer said:
Good post.Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably when hardcore Leavers moan that there hasn't been enough preparation for No Deal, they means things like slaughtering the beef herds ready for the market being closed off on 29th March, scrapping the fishing fleets for the same reason, beginning the five-to-ten year project to transform Dover from a RoRo frictionless port to partially LoLo and partially customs-checking port, invading Calais so we can do the same at the other end, that sort of thing. Criminally negligent not to have done all that, natch.
However, the point you are missing is that with hardcore Leavers "it is always someone else's fault".
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/06/trump-mueller-presidential-harrassment-10464890 -
Yes it's obvious that was the plan all along.Floater said:
You need to read what Melvyn King said - this government has been criminally negligent in its preparations for Brexit.Stark_Dawning said:
Then you shouldn’t have gone ahead with it until you were absolutely certain that one of The Enlightened would be running it, if it was so obvious that a non-Enlightened in control would bring about this disaster.Richard_Tyndall said:
Rubbish. She understands Brexit as well as you do and to be frank I often wonder how you manage to tie your own shoelaces in the morning.Scott_P said:
Another unicornRichard_Tyndall said:We did. We told them it would only work with someone who understood and believed in Brexit in charge.
Theresa May demonstrates more understanding of Brexit than any one of the Brexiteers
Negligence or a deliberate cynical act to get us to this place where our options are quite frankly shit so she hopes we have to say "we better stay" you decide.
Either way utterly unfit to lead this country.
And anyone not going along with this farce is a "loon" apparently.0 -
It's always interesting to hear the views from the antipodes.Philip_Thompson said:Can I please ask a question for any leavers who believe the backstop is a price worth paying to ensure Brexit ... of whom there are a few here, Casino, Sean F and Richard T I believe ... would you say that still if instead of being for Northern Ireland it instead applied to England and Scotland?
If we were being told that upon exit England and Scotland would still in perpetuity be subjected to EU regulations, would in perpetuity be stuck in the customs area . . . And that we would have no MEPs etc to change that and we could never unilaterally end this arrangement, it would take EU permission to change anything and that might never come ...
... if the backstop applies to us would you still think it was a price worth paying?0 -
That might convince even my dad to go out and vote.TOPPING said:
Why not put Remain and Status Quo.Xenon said:
Have just remain on the ballot paper. If they want to look more democratic they could have remain on there twice or even 3 times using AV.Pulpstar said:There is a real problem with what to put on the ballot against remain. Parliament won't countenance no deal, and they'll have just rejected a sensible deal brought forward
This will settle the outcome for a generation.
That will confuse 87.5% of the leavers.
He loves Status Quo, he has all their albums.0 -
Archetypal 21st Century headline ?
24 Amazon Warehouse Workers Sent to Hospital After Robot Punctures Can of Bear Repellent Spray
https://slate.com/business/2018/12/amazon-workers-hospitalized-robot-punctures-bear-repellent-spray.html0 -
TBF, I think Robert Smithson has given pretty detailed answers.Richard_Nabavi said:
Dunno, but I've been asking for months what exactly these mysterious preparations which Cameron and then May negligently neglected were supposed to be. I haven't had even the glimmer of an answer, nor has there been one from the politicians making the same moan.TGOHF said:
What is the collective noun for a group of strawmen ?Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably when hardcore Leavers moan that there hasn't been enough preparation for No Deal, they means things like slaughtering the beef herds ready for the market being closed off on 29th March, scrapping the fishing fleets for the same reason, beginning the five-to-ten year project to transform Dover from a RoRo frictionless port to partially LoLo and partially customs-checking port, invading Calais so we can do the same at the other end, that sort of thing. Criminally negligent not to have done all that, natch.
Perhaps you could list them for us, just the main ones covering things like agriculture, customs at Dover, car and aerospace manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, that sort of thing.0 -
Deal fails Tues, all hell breaks loose, people realise TINO, deal passes following week.grabcocque said:
On thus plus side if May, via some miraculous wellspring of convicing power she has heretofore never displayed, is able to wrangle a yes vote on Tuesday, you'll be a shoo-in for punter of the year.TOPPING said:
That said, BF might be telling me I am down on my bet that the deal will pass but I refuse to be cowed.
I will be nothing if not gracious, unassuming and modest.0 -
once again we must return to AA GillJosiasJessop said:And belief is apparently what matters. Forget the complexities caused by reality; if they scrunch their eyes up really hard, cross their fingers and mutter prayers beneath their breath to Saint Farage of Brussels, they can achieve anything! Their righteousness means that their evil foes will give in to any of their wishes!
Brexit is the fond belief that Britain is worse now than at some point in the foggy past where we achieved peak Blighty. We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
https://dndlaw.com/aa-gill-on-brexit/0 -
Actually, I had a better idea, let's frame the entire People's Vote in terms of Dad Rock.
Would you rather:
Dire Straits or Status Quo?0 -
Well if it was so difficult to prepare for a post EU world, why did Cameron offer the referendum ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Dunno, but I've been asking for months what exactly these mysterious preparations which Cameron and then May negligently neglected were supposed to be. I haven't had even the glimmer of an answer, nor has there been one from the politicians making the same moan.TGOHF said:
What is the collective noun for a group of strawmen ?Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably when hardcore Leavers moan that there hasn't been enough preparation for No Deal, they means things like slaughtering the beef herds ready for the market being closed off on 29th March, scrapping the fishing fleets for the same reason, beginning the five-to-ten year project to transform Dover from a RoRo frictionless port to partially LoLo and partially customs-checking port, invading Calais so we can do the same at the other end, that sort of thing. Criminally negligent not to have done all that, natch.
Perhaps you could list them for us, just the main ones covering things like agriculture, customs at Dover, car and aerospace manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, that sort of thing.
And having lost it , why did May negotiate a deal with all the skill and dexterity of a chimpanzee after a gallon of cognac ?
0 -
Whatever You Want could have been written for the Leave campaign.grabcocque said:
That might convince even my dad to go out and vote.TOPPING said:
Why not put Remain and Status Quo.Xenon said:
Have just remain on the ballot paper. If they want to look more democratic they could have remain on there twice or even 3 times using AV.Pulpstar said:There is a real problem with what to put on the ballot against remain. Parliament won't countenance no deal, and they'll have just rejected a sensible deal brought forward
This will settle the outcome for a generation.
That will confuse 87.5% of the leavers.
He loves Status Quo, he has all their albums.0 -
The questions are a serious problem. The answers - well surely that's down to the electorate?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Xenon, options could be:
1) Remain
2) Stay
3) J'adore l'EU!
[On a serious note, questions and answers are a serious problem for a theoretical second referendum].
If STV were to be used for a 2nd referendum with 3 options the order of the options would need to be randomised across the voting papers.
(Although personally I don't mind if the EC decide to fix the order as Remain, Deal, No Deal
) 0 -
I thought Brexit was the fond belief that decisions should be made in Britain, and not elsewhere? I doubt trade played much of a role in people's decisions.Scott_P said:
once again we must return to AA GillJosiasJessop said:And belief is apparently what matters. Forget the complexities caused by reality; if they scrunch their eyes up really hard, cross their fingers and mutter prayers beneath their breath to Saint Farage of Brussels, they can achieve anything! Their righteousness means that their evil foes will give in to any of their wishes!
Brexit is the fond belief that Britain is worse now than at some point in the foggy past where we achieved peak Blighty. We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
https://dndlaw.com/aa-gill-on-brexit/0 -
Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed0 -
First point: because people, and notably his own party, were insisting on it. Of course he wasn't to know that the loons, having won, would trash the deal required to implement their victory, although I agree that with the benefit of hindsight that should have been obvious.TGOHF said:
Well if it was so difficult to prepare for a post EU world, why did Cameron offer the referendum ?Richard_Nabavi said:
Dunno, but I've been asking for months what exactly these mysterious preparations which Cameron and then May negligently neglected were supposed to be. I haven't had even the glimmer of an answer, nor has there been one from the politicians making the same moan.TGOHF said:
What is the collective noun for a group of strawmen ?Richard_Nabavi said:Presumably when hardcore Leavers moan that there hasn't been enough preparation for No Deal, they means things like slaughtering the beef herds ready for the market being closed off on 29th March, scrapping the fishing fleets for the same reason, beginning the five-to-ten year project to transform Dover from a RoRo frictionless port to partially LoLo and partially customs-checking port, invading Calais so we can do the same at the other end, that sort of thing. Criminally negligent not to have done all that, natch.
Perhaps you could list them for us, just the main ones covering things like agriculture, customs at Dover, car and aerospace manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, that sort of thing.
And having lost it , why did May negotiate a deal with all the skill and dexterity of a chimpanzee after a gallon of cognac ?
Second point: She did rather well, given the constraints.0 -
Except Parliament has no say over the EU's negotiators.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed0 -
I'm no expert but did watch the video and heard no mention that cars are just better and last longer now, so there is less need to replace them. That said, I do not have the time or inclination to check that. But it does seem a plausible explanation.logical_song said:Completely Off Topic
Why are new car sales dropping - these guys have an opinion. They're right about my motives, but overall - I dunno. I'd be interested to hear from RCS on this.
"The Impending Big Auto/Oil Implosion Explained | In Depth"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUC6lsLr04I0 -
A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
That's like taking out health insurance that the insurer can cancel when you get ill.0 -
Indeed - but it throws it back at themRobD said:
Except Parliament has no say over the EU's negotiators.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed0 -
Since it's Dad rock time.RobD said:
I thought Brexit was the fond belief that decisions should be made in Britain, and not elsewhere? I doubt trade played much of a role in people's decisions.Scott_P said:
once again we must return to AA GillJosiasJessop said:And belief is apparently what matters. Forget the complexities caused by reality; if they scrunch their eyes up really hard, cross their fingers and mutter prayers beneath their breath to Saint Farage of Brussels, they can achieve anything! Their righteousness means that their evil foes will give in to any of their wishes!
Brexit is the fond belief that Britain is worse now than at some point in the foggy past where we achieved peak Blighty. We listen to the Brexit lot talk about the trade deals they’re going to make with Europe after we leave, and the blithe insouciance that what they’re offering instead of EU membership is a divorce where you can still have sex with your ex. They reckon they can get out of the marriage, keep the house, not pay alimony, take the kids out of school, stop the in-laws going to the doctor, get strict with the visiting rights, but, you know, still get a shag at the weekend and, obviously, see other people on the side.
Really, that’s their best offer? That’s the plan? To swagger into Brussels with Union Jack pants on and say: “ ’Ello luv, you’re looking nice today. Would you like some?”
When the rest of us ask how that’s really going to work, leavers reply, with Terry-Thomas smirks, that “they’re going to still really fancy us, honest, they’re gagging for us. Possibly not Merkel, but the bosses of Mercedes and those French vintners and cheesemakers, they can’t get enough of old John Bull. Of course they’re going to want to go on making the free market with two backs after we’ve got the decree nisi. Makes sense, doesn’t it?”
https://dndlaw.com/aa-gill-on-brexit/
"I bargained for sovereignty
And she gave me a lethal dose."0 -
She doesn't need a few more days. As the ERG have pointed out, with uncharacteristic wisdom, that would require the reopening of negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, which we have already been told repeatedly by the EU and Mrs May is quite impossible.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
Even if it turned out to not be as impossible as they claimed, there'd have to be another European Council to adopt the revised WA. Which would mean, what, mid January at the earliest.
0 -
That's very good!grabcocque said:Actually, I had a better idea, let's frame the entire People's Vote in terms of Dad Rock.
Would you rather:
Dire Straits or Status Quo?0 -
Mr. Cocque, Money For Nothing, or Burning Bridges?0
-
You need to stop talking your book up.Pulpstar said:I agree with the sentiment but if she can just remain in charge of the Tories till the 31st, ideally whilst installing Lidington as temporary PM I'd be grateful
She needs to stay in charge until the 31st and be replaced by the best person for the job, and that's Jeremy Hunt.0 -
Beth Rigby of Sky saying that the government has a few more days to come up with a wording for the amendmentAllyPally_Rob said:
A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
That's like taking out health insurance that the insurer can cancel when you get ill.0 -
Right got to go - off to see Abba* tonight.
(*Got a feeling it's a tribute band rather than the originals, not totally sure.)0 -
They can write whatever amendment they want, but if they actually moved the amendment they'll look ridiculous. To think that Tory MPs would be dumb enough to fall for an amendment of the meaningful vote being able to bind the EU negotiators to a particular course of action? Utterly ludicrous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Beth Rigby of Sky saying that the government has a few more days to come up with a wording for the amendmentAllyPally_Rob said:
A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
That's like taking out health insurance that the insurer can cancel when you get ill.
Mr Speaker would relish the opportunity to rule it out of order. Really, does May really need to give Bercow another opportunity to ridicule her?0 -
That is true Big_G, thay have a few more days... but they need Harry Potter to help conjure up an amendment that will pass the HoC but not nullify the agreement with the EU.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Beth Rigby of Sky saying that the government has a few more days to come up with a wording for the amendmentAllyPally_Rob said:
A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
That's like taking out health insurance that the insurer can cancel when you get ill.0 -
0
-
The EU can call emergency Council meetings at anytime. Certainly something is going on and as Sky said, it is very unusual for Graham Brady to come on cameragrabcocque said:
She doesn't need a few more days. As the ERG have pointed out, with uncharacteristic wisdom, that would require the reopening of negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, which we have already been told repeatedly by the EU and Mrs May is quite impossible.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
Even if it turned out to not be as impossible as they claimed, there'd have to be another European Council to adopt the revised WA. Which would mean, what, mid January at the earliest.0 -
Er.... can you re-phrase that please?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU can call emergency Council meetings at anytime. Certainly something is going on and as Sky said, it is very unusual for Graham Brady to come on cameragrabcocque said:
She doesn't need a few more days. As the ERG have pointed out, with uncharacteristic wisdom, that would require the reopening of negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, which we have already been told repeatedly by the EU and Mrs May is quite impossible.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
Even if it turned out to not be as impossible as they claimed, there'd have to be another European Council to adopt the revised WA. Which would mean, what, mid January at the earliest.0 -
True, they're certainly better than my first few cars, but they've been good for maybe 20 years.DecrepitJohnL said:
I'm no expert but did watch the video and heard no mention that cars are just better and last longer now, so there is less need to replace them. That said, I do not have the time or inclination to check that. But it does seem a plausible explanation.logical_song said:Completely Off Topic
Why are new car sales dropping - these guys have an opinion. They're right about my motives, but overall - I dunno. I'd be interested to hear from RCS on this.
"The Impending Big Auto/Oil Implosion Explained | In Depth"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUC6lsLr04I0 -
You cannot say that without knowing the amendment and if it satisfies the mpsgrabcocque said:
They can write whatever amendment they want, but if they actually moved the amendment they'll look ridiculous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Beth Rigby of Sky saying that the government has a few more days to come up with a wording for the amendmentAllyPally_Rob said:
A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
That's like taking out health insurance that the insurer can cancel when you get ill.0 -
0
-
I am just a naive old gentleman but maybe appear would have been more suitable !!!Benpointer said:
Er.... can you re-phrase that please?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The EU can call emergency Council meetings at anytime. Certainly something is going on and as Sky said, it is very unusual for Graham Brady to come on cameragrabcocque said:
She doesn't need a few more days. As the ERG have pointed out, with uncharacteristic wisdom, that would require the reopening of negotiations on the withdrawal agreement, which we have already been told repeatedly by the EU and Mrs May is quite impossible.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
Even if it turned out to not be as impossible as they claimed, there'd have to be another European Council to adopt the revised WA. Which would mean, what, mid January at the earliest.0 -
Boris Johnson has just said we should threaten to use Trident, in order to obtain greater leverage over the EU.0 -
Would have to be the Mother of all amendments to satisfy all the Conservative MPs. The penny isn't dropping in Downing Street, that it is no longer in the gift of May and her advisers. Anything, short of a VONC, is unlikely to pass. That was made clear on Tuesday.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You cannot say that without knowing the amendment and if it satisfies the mpsgrabcocque said:
They can write whatever amendment they want, but if they actually moved the amendment they'll look ridiculous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Beth Rigby of Sky saying that the government has a few more days to come up with a wording for the amendmentAllyPally_Rob said:
A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
That's like taking out health insurance that the insurer can cancel when you get ill.0 -
Well at least it's a plan.Sean_F said:
Boris Johnson has just said we should threaten to use Trident, in order to obtain greater leverage over the EU.0 -
You are joking ?Sean_F said:
Boris Johnson has just said we should threaten to use Trident, in order to obtain greater leverage over the EU.0 -
No, you misunderstand. It's not MPs May has to convince, it's Bercow. Mr Speaker selects and rules which amendments are effective and which are out of order. Any attempt to move an amendment which claims to be able to bind the EU negotiators is *clearly* absurd and would no doubt be ruled out of order.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You cannot say that without knowing the amendment and if it satisfies the mps
0 -
Yes but this is Graham Brady making these comments and as Sky has said has appeared to show support for TMdixiedean said:
Would have to be the Mother of all amendments to satisfy all the Conservative MPs. The penny isn't dropping in Downing Street, that it is no longer in the gift of May and her advisers. Anything, short of a VONC, is unlikely to pass. That was made clear on Tuesday.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You cannot say that without knowing the amendment and if it satisfies the mpsgrabcocque said:
They can write whatever amendment they want, but if they actually moved the amendment they'll look ridiculous.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Beth Rigby of Sky saying that the government has a few more days to come up with a wording for the amendmentAllyPally_Rob said:
A backstop with a time limit is not a backstop.Big_G_NorthWales said:Sounds like Graham Brady is suggesting that TM should agree for an amendment to the deal to be laid to make the deal subject to the backstop being time limited or some similar mechanism
He said that if she needs a few more days the vote can be postponed
That's like taking out health insurance that the insurer can cancel when you get ill.0 -
You just do not know that at this stagegrabcocque said:
No, you misunderstand. It's not MPs May has to convince, it's Bercow. Mr Speaker selects and rules which amendments are effective and which are out of order. Any attempt to move an amendment which claims to be able to bind the EU negotiators is *clearly* absurd and would no doubt be ruled out of order.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You cannot say that without knowing the amendment and if it satisfies the mps0 -
FTSE down almost 3.6%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c9qdqqkgz27t/ftse-1000 -
Its a remake of that Christmas Great Die Hard(with a vengence)Tissue_Price said:A new strategy emerges:
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/10707222517278228480 -
Oh no. Quick better transfer some more powers to the EU to fix this.logical_song said:FTSE down almost 3.6%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c9qdqqkgz27t/ftse-1000 -
That has to be a jokeJosiasJessop said:
You are joking ?Sean_F said:
Boris Johnson has just said we should threaten to use Trident, in order to obtain greater leverage over the EU.0 -
Uk down 3.15% and Germany and France by morelogical_song said:FTSE down almost 3.6%
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c9qdqqkgz27t/ftse-1000 -
For the meaningful vote to have, well, meaning, the vote *must* be on the Withdrawal Agreement as it is currently agreed. For the government to think it can somehow make the MV be about some mythical other WA that might or might not exist at some point in the future, and expect the house to vote *on faith*? UTTERLY absurd.
None of the wrecking amendments that have been proposed up to this point come close to being as ridiculous as that.0 -
Why don't we wait and see what happens. Graham Brady is very influential in the partygrabcocque said:For the meaningful vote to have, well, meaning, the vote *must* be on the Withdrawal Agreement as it is currently agreed. For the government to think it can somehow make the MV be about some mythical other WA that might or might not exist at some point in the future, and expect the house to vote *on faith*? UTTERLY absurd.
None of the wrecking amendments that have been proposed up to this point come close to being as ridiculous as that.0 -
Dow Jones down 500 points - market is now negative for 2018.0
-
What Mervyn missed, in an otherwise excellent article, was *why* no No Deal preparation took place. It was not a cynical ploy, but a logical consequence of the business love in the government undertook in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote.Floater said:
You need to read what Melvyn King said - this government has been criminally negligent in its preparations for Brexit.Stark_Dawning said:
Then you shouldn’t have gone ahead with it until you were absolutely certain that one of The Enlightened would be running it, if it was so obvious that a non-Enlightened in control would bring about this disaster.Richard_Tyndall said:
Rubbish. She understands Brexit as well as you do and to be frank I often wonder how you manage to tie your own shoelaces in the morning.Scott_P said:
Another unicornRichard_Tyndall said:We did. We told them it would only work with someone who understood and believed in Brexit in charge.
Theresa May demonstrates more understanding of Brexit than any one of the Brexiteers
Negligence or a deliberate cynical act to get us to this place where our options are quite frankly shit so she hopes we have to say "we better stay" you decide.
Either way utterly unfit to lead this country.
That "love in" was a success, in that it kept investment levels up, and therefore avoided any negative headlines. (And also made sure that the UK didn't slip into recession.) But it also tied the government's hands in negotiation. It had promised Nissan and others there would be a deal, and it was scared of being seen to renege on that commitment.
In retrospect, the government should probably have been more equivocal at the beginning of the process. But had they done that, then perhaps the Brexit recession would have happened... It's all counter-factual, so no one knows, but it wasn't treason or low cunning, it was the consequence of a desire to reassure business.0 -
Yes, but you could imagine him saying it.JosiasJessop said:
You are joking ?Sean_F said:
Boris Johnson has just said we should threaten to use Trident, in order to obtain greater leverage over the EU.
I should of course have prefaced by comment with "Disgraced sack of shit and amoral sociopathic snake …….."0 -
Are Leave Tory MPs thick or delusional ?
A backstop is only a backstop if it’s indefinite .0 -
You'd think so. However Boris does have a habit if tripping over his own words in his attempts to say something meaningful, and so it's easy to imagine he'd say something so wonderfully Boris-like.timmo said:
That has to be a jokeJosiasJessop said:
You are joking ?Sean_F said:
Boris Johnson has just said we should threaten to use Trident, in order to obtain greater leverage over the EU.0 -
*O2 has been down for 10 hours and counting*
Me:
0 -
Is that actually true? See, what I read into Brady's comments is that he is minded to vote against the meaningful vote. He's practically begging, pleading with Mrs May to postpone the MV or fudge the backstop so he doesn't have to.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Why don't we wait and see what happens. Graham Brady is very influential in the partygrabcocque said:For the meaningful vote to have, well, meaning, the vote *must* be on the Withdrawal Agreement as it is currently agreed. For the government to think it can somehow make the MV be about some mythical other WA that might or might not exist at some point in the future, and expect the house to vote *on faith*? UTTERLY absurd.
None of the wrecking amendments that have been proposed up to this point come close to being as ridiculous as that.0 -
Excellent article. There is however a further problem with a GE: while it is at a pinch just possible that a Conservative manifesto could just about say something almost coherent and meaningful about its Brexit intentions if it won a GE, there cannot be any possibility of a Labour manifesto coming anywhere close even to this low bar. As only these two parties could win, and probably neither of them would in fact win outright, a GE runs a high risk of achieving the apparently impossible task of making things worse.
TM remaining, impossible as it might seem, may well be best for the country.0 -
You've changed since we last met.TheScreamingEagles said:*O2 has been down for 10 hours and counting*
Me:0 -
It has been abundantly clear that this deal was not going to pass for well over a week now. So why pull the vote now?
Another week wasted. Reality hit number 10 smack in the face Tuesday. It should have done so the Tuesday before.0 -
Worth commenting very briefly on the market. The US trade deficit was worse than expected this morning, and continues to expand. In particular, the US-China trade deficit worsened (despite all the sanctions).
The expectation is that this will lead to President Trump increasing tariffs on engaging in other anti-trade behaviour.
At heart, the problem is that the US government's policy of cutting taxes and increasing spending was always going to lead to a higher trade deficit. (See Barber, Anthony.)
The problem is that President Trump's trade team is led by a bunch of former steel industry trade lawyers, who successfully cut the trade deficit in steel via tariffs and therefore assume it works for the economy as a whole. The reality is that steel tariffs may have reduced the US steel deficit, but they did so at the expense of the overall trade deficit.
The US, like the UK, spends too much and saves too little. (While the rest of the world, mostly, has the opposite problem.) It's an unstable equilibrium, that will only end badly*.
* The sensible option would be for the US to lobby China and the Eurozone to run more expansionary fiscal policies and to lower some of the incentives for saving. (It would also be received better as a message that yelling about "unfair trade".) And the US should combine this with measures that encourage saving at home, and a budget that reduces the deficit. But that wouldn't produce a "feel good" factor in the US, and therefore will be rejected out of hand.0 -
This pointless two week delay was placed here solely for May's ego, so she could have a fakey general election campaign to sell her deal to the people.dixiedean said:It has been abundantly clear that this deal was not going to pass for well over a week now. So why pull the vote now?
Another week wasted. Reality hit number 10 smack in the face Tuesday. It should have done so the Tuesday before.
It's amazing, in hindsight, that her people can already have forgotten how well May's last election campaign went, since it was not even 18 months ago.0 -
Given Deal beats No Deal 62% to 38% with Yougov May might be tempted to call a Deal v No Deal referendum as a last resort and with a No Deal option the DUP and ERG could back it while it would keep her commitment to respect the original Leave vote0
-
Hell of a long 18 months, though.grabcocque said:
This pointless two week delay was placed here solely for May's ego, so she could have a fakey general election campaign to sell her deal to the people.dixiedean said:It has been abundantly clear that this deal was not going to pass for well over a week now. So why pull the vote now?
Another week wasted. Reality hit number 10 smack in the face Tuesday. It should have done so the Tuesday before.
It's amazing, in hindsight, that her people can already have forgotten how well May's last election campaign went, since it was not even 18 months ago.0 -
How do you propose May would get such a referendum question past the house and past the electoral commission?HYUFD said:Given Deal beats No Deal 62% to 38% with Yougov May might be tempted to call a Deal v No Deal referendum as a last resort and with a No Deal option the DUP and ERG could back it while it would keep her commitment to respect the original Leave vote
0
