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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nunc dimittis: Theresa May’s exit approaches

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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    Backbenchers think they amend the Meaningful Vote and the backstop will simply disappear.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1070773611789729794

    Be fascinated to hear what the EU thinks of Mrs May's attempts to derogate from the backstop before it's even approved.

    Is it valid if he got his five year old kid to sign it?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,409

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    I don't think it's especially nonsense. Rather less than May's so called deal, in fact
    TM has a deal agreed by the EU 27

    Labour are talking nonsense
    May has.a deal which essentially implements the EU's original withdrawal requirements against a temporary extension of the status quo and a commitment to negotiate further. It absolutely isn't an end state agreement, although May dishonestly pretends it is.
    It is Brexit
    Surely you mean it's Numberwang.....
  • kle4 said:



    For me (I think!); I first voted in 1992):
    Conservative
    Labour
    Lib Dem
    Green
    Independent

    Sometimes at the same visit to the polling station (e.g. locals, GE).

    Basically, most parties available in my part of England aside from UKIP. And I am so glad I never soiled myself by associating myself via a vote with that party.

    First voted in the mid-nineties

    Have voted for:

    Conservative
    UKIP
    Referendum Party
    Lib Dem
    SNP
    Green
    Nine Percent Growth Party
    Scottish Libertarian Party
    Independent

    Would probably spoil my ballot if there were a general election before 29 March. Never done that before.
    Wow, quite the list. I feel very dull only having voted LD, Independent and Conservative since 2005.

    Wait, 'Nine Percent Growth Party'?
    My first election was 1987. I missed the 83 election by 1 month.

    I voted

    Conservative (Thatcher)
    Conservative (Major)
    Referendum Party
    Conservative (A local vote for Pat Mercer)
    UKIP
    UKIP
    UKIP
    Spoilt Paper ( I refused to vote for May or UKIP and there was no one else worth supporting)
    So you voted for the Maastricht treaty.
    Yep. I was young and stupid. We all do idiotic things that we come to regret as we get older and wiser. I learnt my lesson quickly enough though. Hence the Referendum Party in 97.
  • TheoTheo Posts: 325
    kle4 said:

    Theo said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    I don't think it's especially nonsense. Rather less than May's so called deal, in fact
    TM has a deal agreed by the EU 27

    Labour are talking nonsense
    But not agreed by her party, Parliament or the people of the UK. Which is a slight problem.
    Because Remainers are voting it down because they can not tolerate any Brexit and are willing to plunge the UK into a crash rather than respect the democratic vote.
    As you well know they are not the only ones voting it down.
    They are the vast majority. Pointing to a small minority of anti-deal MPs for its failure is pure sophistry. By far the dominant reason for this deal being blocked by parliament is Remain MPs. The majority of them that are doing so by citing six impossible tests that any Brexit deal would fail.

    They are deliberately trying to overrule the people in a dirty tricks way, and the media is covering for them. There has been active collaboration between Labour, Barnier and major media outlets to keep us in the EU and keep mass immigration going.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    edited December 2018
    My personal experience of ministers and shadow ministers is fairly limited, but of those, Barry Gardiner (who I dealt with when he was at DEFRA) is the least impressive by several leagues. The “couldn’t tie his own shoelaces” barb being bandied around here earlier... I’m not even convinced he could fasten his own velcro straps.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    glw said:

    Pulpstar said:
    The ERG are basically nuts, but at least they are proposing things that are deliverable if unpalatable. Corbyn and co. are pretty much just making shit up at this point, it would be quite nice to here some official EU position on what Labour are saying.
    That might give Starmer's game away - which is to justify voting against any deal that is proposed on the basis Labour can deliver the world, then 'reluctantly' back Remain in a referendum as they never got the chance to deliver this amazing proposal. Since we are assured the EU do want us to remain despite the problems (because we are a net contributor), even if they were inclined to comment on opposition proposals directly it might not be in their interests to do so.
    Labour's insistence on renegotiating the deal is a major, major strategic mistake on their part.
    Not at all - it demonstrates their sincerity to deliver Brexit, and when they do not get a chance to deliver proper Brexit, it justifies why they then switch to a referendum, in which they back remain (officially or otherwise). They weren't against brexit, just this brexit, and look at how many Tories agree it was a terrible Brexit.
    Certainly the trashing the ERG gave both May and the deal when it came out played straight into the opposition's hands. They always want the two birds in the bush.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    kle4 said:



    For me (I think!); I first voted in 1992):
    Conservative
    Labour
    Lib Dem
    Green
    Independent

    Sometimes at the same visit to the polling station (e.g. locals, GE).

    Basically, most parties available in my part of England aside from UKIP. And I am so glad I never soiled myself by associating myself via a vote with that party.

    First voted in the mid-nineties

    Have voted for:

    Conservative
    UKIP
    Referendum Party
    Lib Dem
    SNP
    Green
    Nine Percent Growth Party
    Scottish Libertarian Party
    Independent

    Would probably spoil my ballot if there were a general election before 29 March. Never done that before.
    Wow, quite the list. I feel very dull only having voted LD, Independent and Conservative since 2005.

    Wait, 'Nine Percent Growth Party'?
    My first election was 1987. I missed the 83 election by 1 month.

    I voted

    Conservative (Thatcher)
    Conservative (Major)
    Referendum Party
    Conservative (A local vote for Pat Mercer)
    UKIP
    UKIP
    UKIP
    Spoilt Paper ( I refused to vote for May or UKIP and there was no one else worth supporting)
    So you voted for the Maastricht treaty.
    Yep. I was young and stupid. We all do idiotic things that we come to regret as we get older and wiser. I learnt my lesson quickly enough though. Hence the Referendum Party in 97.
    I am not sure that is the voting profile of someone becoming more sensible with age!
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138

    IanB2 said:

    In my experience Tory negativity about Labour is at least as strong. For whatever reason this doesn't drive them to vote tactically in such large numbers (although obviously it does happen, in seats like Clegg's for example.

    Though I find that locally, Labour dislike the Tories, the Tories dislike Labour, but they both really hate the Lib Dems.

    The Labour councillor for one stop down the train line, a self-described "centrist", is politically not that far from the Lib Dem councillor for where I live... but mein gott, the vitriol she pours on the Lib Dems on Twitter is a sight to behold. And the Tories are similar.

    Which is all a bit bloody self-defeating given that the county is a hung council and one of them will, conceivably, need Lib Dem support to govern before too long, but there you go.
    Of course their activists hate the Lib Dems. Their objective, whether Labour or Con, is to polarise politics into just two blocks, so that the electorate is forced to choose between bad and even worse. That way they have a chance, sooner or later, at grabbing hold of uncontrolled power for themselves.

    This is what happened at the 2017 election. Many people voted against the prospect of a Tory dictatorship, and others against a Socialist dictatorship. We ended up with the former, and it is taking the country along the road to total ruination.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2018
    Is there any truth to this?

    "Elysee fears ‘putschists’, coup attempt during Yellow Vests protests this weekend – media"

    https://www.rt.com/news/445750-france-coup-attempt-protests/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    AndyJS said:

    Is there any truth to this?

    "Elysee fears ‘putschists’, coup attempt during Yellow Vests protests this weekend – media"

    https://www.rt.com/news/445750-france-coup-attempt-protests/

    It's Russia Today, so they'd know if there was a coup attempt likely.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    Trevor Skeet?
  • rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    Wasn't that because you weren't old enough to vote in 1992?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Pulpstar said:

    Oh Dear Lord, never realised Hugo Swire was on the payroll. What the hell is the Gov't doing ?
    This is madness. I assumed it was some ERG nonsense.

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1070777337380331521
    IF you have a spare ninety seconds, see how far you can get through Swire's horribly-drafted amendment without shouting PARKLIFE.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Theo said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    I don't think it's especially nonsense. Rather less than May's so called deal, in fact
    Outside the EU, in the customs union with "say" in trade deals ?

    Lol.
    Indeed. But don't expect that with "May's deal" either. At least Labour are discussing a viable end state. May's deal is just cake.
    It's not a viable end state. Full single market access with immigration controls? Outside the EU but with meaningful input on trade deals? It is pixie dust and unicorns.

    But the Remain media covers for them, because it has long given up any sense of being about journalistic integrity or impartiality.
    My point is that in the pantheon of pixie dust, this proposal has smaller quantities of it than hard leavers, Theresa May or second referendumers.

    The UK won't have a huge input into trade deals under any probable Brexit scenario simply because the EU is big, we're next to it and we're plugged in. I think it's the least of the Vassal State concerns because it's something you would want to do as a consortium Being left out is a bigger problem.

    I wouldn't say this snippet makes any huge claim for immigration control. If you are that way inclined, surely you would object it doesn't offer more?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    PClipp said:

    IanB2 said:

    In my experience Tory negativity about Labour is at least as strong. For whatever reason this doesn't drive them to vote tactically in such large numbers (although obviously it does happen, in seats like Clegg's for example.

    Though I find that locally, Labour dislike the Tories, the Tories dislike Labour, but they both really hate the Lib Dems.

    The Labour councillor for one stop down the train line, a self-described "centrist", is politically not that far from the Lib Dem councillor for where I live... but mein gott, the vitriol she pours on the Lib Dems on Twitter is a sight to behold. And the Tories are similar.

    Which is all a bit bloody self-defeating given that the county is a hung council and one of them will, conceivably, need Lib Dem support to govern before too long, but there you go.
    Of course their activists hate the Lib Dems. Their objective, whether Labour or Con, is to polarise politics into just two blocks, so that the electorate is forced to choose between bad and even worse. That way they have a chance, sooner or later, at grabbing hold of uncontrolled power for themselves.
    Acutely observed, thank you.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    OGH, prepare the ban hammer.
  • AndyJS said:

    Is there any truth to this?

    "Elysee fears ‘putschists’, coup attempt during Yellow Vests protests this weekend – media"

    https://www.rt.com/news/445750-france-coup-attempt-protests/

    They’re overdue a good old Gallic coup attempt, aren’t they?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited December 2018
    rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    Confession Time, I did vote for your dad in 2002.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    Confession Time, I did vote for your dad in 2002.
    Did he stand in 2002?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    DUP have categorically rejected May's wish-the-backstop-away amendment.

    https://twitter.com/DUPleader/status/1070796443655565312
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    Confession Time, I did vote for your dad in 2002.
    Did he stand in 2002?
    Council Election in Jericho & Osney.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    AndyJS said:

    Is there any truth to this?

    "Elysee fears ‘putschists’, coup attempt during Yellow Vests protests this weekend – media"

    https://www.rt.com/news/445750-france-coup-attempt-protests/

    They’re overdue a good old Gallic coup attempt, aren’t they?
    I have to admit, I've always had a soft spot for Frenchie's jackbooted liberalism.
  • Theo said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FF43 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    I don't think it's especially nonsense. Rather less than May's so called deal, in fact
    Outside the EU, in the customs union with "say" in trade deals ?

    Lol.
    Indeed. But don't expect that with "May's deal" either. At least Labour are discussing a viable end state. May's deal is just cake.
    It's not a viable end state. Full single market access with immigration controls? Outside the EU but with meaningful input on trade deals? It is pixie dust and unicorns.

    But the Remain media covers for them, because it has long given up any sense of being about journalistic integrity or impartiality.
    Remain media 😂😂😂

    Does this 'Remain Media' include the Daily Mail, Express, Telegraph, Sun, Star ect?!

    Does this include the Today programme that seems to have David Davis on on a daily basis?!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    I've always voted for my Dad whenever he's been on my ballot paper.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    Confession Time, I did vote for your dad in 2002.
    Did he stand in 2002?
    Council Election in Jericho & Osney.
    [gasp] Not mentioned on OGH's Wiki page!
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    edited December 2018
    Ha, having spent days working on this last-ditch amendment, only to be laughed at, seems Number 10 are briefing they didn't really mean it.

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1070604859257307137

    "of course, we never expected them to fall for this cheap trick. We just felt that by insulting their intelligence one last time, we'd make them feel bad for not supporting us"
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,580
    edited December 2018
    IanB2 said:

    kle4 said:



    For me (I think!); I first voted in 1992):
    Conservative
    Labour
    Lib Dem
    Green
    Independent

    Sometimes at the same visit to the polling station (e.g. locals, GE).

    Basically, most parties available in my part of England aside from UKIP. And I am so glad I never soiled myself by associating myself via a vote with that party.

    First voted in the mid-nineties

    Have voted for:

    Conservative
    UKIP
    Referendum Party
    Lib Dem
    SNP
    Green
    Nine Percent Growth Party
    Scottish Libertarian Party
    Independent

    Would probably spoil my ballot if there were a general election before 29 March. Never done that before.
    Wow, quite the list. I feel very dull only having voted LD, Independent and Conservative since 2005.

    Wait, 'Nine Percent Growth Party'?
    My first election was 1987. I missed the 83 election by 1 month.

    I voted

    Conservative (Thatcher)
    Conservative (Major)
    Referendum Party
    Conservative (A local vote for Pat Mercer)
    UKIP
    UKIP
    UKIP
    Spoilt Paper ( I refused to vote for May or UKIP and there was no one else worth supporting)
    So you voted for the Maastricht treaty.
    Yep. I was young and stupid. We all do idiotic things that we come to regret as we get older and wiser. I learnt my lesson quickly enough though. Hence the Referendum Party in 97.
    I am not sure that is the voting profile of someone becoming more sensible with age!
    It is the voting profile of a realist who has seen more of the world (both good and bad) than most people in this country.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    Wasn't that because you weren't old enough to vote in 1992?
    Shhhh. You and your facts.

    I didn't vote in 1997, because I was in Berlin. I didn't vote in 2001, because I was in the US.

    The first election I ever voted in was - I think - the London Mayoral election of 2000.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    Confession Time, I did vote for your dad in 2002.
    I voted for his dad in 1980.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    kle4 said:



    For me (I think!); I first voted in 1992):
    Conservative
    Labour
    Lib Dem
    Green
    Independent

    Sometimes at the same visit to the polling station (e.g. locals, GE).

    Basically, most parties available in my part of England aside from UKIP. And I am so glad I never soiled myself by associating myself via a vote with that party.

    First voted in the mid-nineties

    Have voted for:

    Conservative
    UKIP
    Referendum Party
    Lib Dem
    SNP
    Green
    Nine Percent Growth Party
    Scottish Libertarian Party
    Independent

    Would probably spoil my ballot if there were a general election before 29 March. Never done that before.
    Wow, quite the list. I feel very dull only having voted LD, Independent and Conservative since 2005.

    Wait, 'Nine Percent Growth Party'?
    My first election was 1987. I missed the 83 election by 1 month.

    I voted

    Conservative (Thatcher)
    Conservative (Major)
    Referendum Party
    Conservative (A local vote for Pat Mercer)
    UKIP
    UKIP
    UKIP
    Spoilt Paper ( I refused to vote for May or UKIP and there was no one else worth supporting)
    Lord Buckethead was the most robust all rounder in 2017.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,409
    edited December 2018
    New Thread
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I voted for chaos with Ed Miliband.
  • Anazina said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Confession time: I didn't vote for my dad in 1992.

    Confession Time, I did vote for your dad in 2002.
    I voted for his dad in 1980.
    Your mum.
This discussion has been closed.