Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
On a point of order the UK does not have bottom-up democracy. We are a unitary state and constitutional monarchy. Power flows downwards from the crown. What power is vested in the devolved parliaments of the home nations is only by the good grace of Her Majesty.
If we're lucky sometimes power makes it as far down as Parliament, but only in exceptional circumstances.
It's a fascinating system really, since we generally pretend it is bottom up.
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
A Corbyn premiership with McDonnell as Chancellor would be farworse than a no deal Brexit but probably what Remainers deserve, particularly those who want a second referendum
I suppose in your mind it is fine for No Deal Brexit to cause companies to collapse, people to be jobless and see their homes repossessed and relationships destroyed. But as soon as the consequences of the lunatic minority of Tories and their obsession with Europe might upset your life, you are worried. Actually, membership of the EU would mitigate the actions of Corbyn and co. but like many Brexiteers you do not understand the membership you are so opposed too. I remember doing GCSE's in the early 1990s and the teacher of one of my classes told me in detail how membership of EEC/EU prevented hard left governments from destroying the economy. Maybe you and other Brexit supporters should enlighten yourselves before wishing ill on millions of families...
You tried Project Fear during the referendum and it didn’t work. I see you’ve learnt nothing.
It only has to work a little better, or for a few more leavers to be too disillusioned to turn out. It could work, though is hardly assured.
I could see a partial boycott.
Remain could win 59:41 - or similar - on a turnout of, say, 45% or so, similar to the AV referendum.
That’s be taken as a clear mandate by the powers that be, but would be very unhealthy.
I bet all the 'there should have been a threshold' voices will suddenly find it is ok after all in that scenario.
The threshold is for avoiding dramatic change unless it has a convincing majority, not for leaving things as they are.
The status quo is we are leaving
Remain would be a screeching U turn
And a national humiliation.
Nations don’t have feelings
Claiming it is humiliation is a dangerously emotional approach
We must do what is necessary no matter how distasteful
At the moment according to commentators like Laura Kuenssberg there is no Commons majority for another deeply divisive EUref2 but probably a Commons majority for Single Market + Customs Union so this is all very interesting but merely hypothetical and the most likely result if May's Deal goes down is the Commons votes for BINO instead
The DUP have made is clear they will bring to government down if the May's Deal is carried. Labour leadership want a GE above all else. Labour leadership are ambivalent about Brexit. Therefore Labour will allow May's deal to pass.
Expect them to abstain at the last minute.
Santa I have been a good boy
Regards
HYUFD
As always with @HYUFD the logic is there (superficially) but the thesis doesn’t survive contact with reality
The DUP have made is clear they will bring to government down if the May's Deal is carried. Labour leadership want a GE above all else. Labour leadership are ambivalent about Brexit. Therefore Labour will allow May's deal to pass.
Expect them to abstain at the last minute.
Santa I have been a good boy
Regards
HYUFD
As always with @HYUFD the logic is there (superficially) but the thesis doesn’t survive contact with reality
Rather like the unalloyed horseshit you peddle regularly about parliamentary sovereignty.
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
People should not automatically accept any compromise of course. Usually the best answer is between two extremes but sometimes dead centre is not best.
However MPs are not seemingly making that kind of calculation. They are simply disavowing compromise explicitly or in pursuit of hypothetical different compromises, some of which are more plausible than others.
"Remain advocates should be thinking right now what they would do to meet the concerns of Leavers,"
Here is a (very long) list of the Brexiteers who told you this list of lies before the last vote, all of whom quit when they found out just how much hard work it would actually be.
Do you want to reward them for their failure with another shot at screwing it up, or do you want to listen to some experts this time?
Theres a long list of iying bstards still telling me the world will end, JLR will stop making cars and we'll be eating grass foi decades.The experts arent that expert ; theyre simply guessers and since they cant forecast 12 months how the hell can they forecast 12 years ?
The simple fact Remainers cant grasp is the the system might work for a privileged few but it doesnt work for the majority and until theres some sign that a change is needed gets in to their thick heads there is no way they will put the issue to bed.
If that wasn't you, one could be forgiven for thinking that was an argument for Corbyn.
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
The backstop could be ended by a unification vote with the republic
The DUP have made is clear they will bring to government down if the May's Deal is carried. Labour leadership want a GE above all else. Labour leadership are ambivalent about Brexit. Therefore Labour will allow May's deal to pass.
Expect them to abstain at the last minute.
Imagine if the vote was defeated by a combo of the ERG, the DuP, Hoey and Labour ultraremainers defying the Labour abstention whip.
Hypotheticals are fun. But let's think about it for one millisecond - "This deal is a terrible, terrible deal and I, Jeremy Corbyn, could negotiate a better one. So let's all not vote on the deal so it can pass, everyone".
It will never arise.
No. It would be anathema to many Labour MPs and cause outrage in the wider party.
Who is on the Privy Council? Ministers, shadow ministers, past ministers?
Party leaders, the cabinet, senior members of the shadow cabinet, law lords, PMs and governors-general of Commonwealth states and British dependent territories, chief whips, private staff of Her Majesty and the Prince of Wales, archbishops, speakers, lord speakers, fathers of the house, chairs of influential select committees, and pretty much anyone else the Crown-in-Parliament deems needful.
My fear is that the loons on both sides are so sure that the people will go their way, that they will agree on a No Deal - Remain referendum.
If we choose No Deal, then people will suddenly be shocked when it turns out that crashing out of the EU's existing relationships with other countries has an impact on the British economy. It will not be pretty.
It we choose Remain, then a very substantial minority of the people will feel utterly betrayed, and if you think politics is poisoned now, just wait until after this,
And, of course, the UK is due a recession. It might have nothing to do with whether we Remain or go No Deal. But it will come, and it will likely be nasty, and it will almost certainly be blamed on whatever choice we made.
It's time to tell the EU that the backstop needs to be endorsed - or ended - by the people of Northern Ireland. They will be cocky enough to think that they will never reject the EU's embrace (and they may be right). And it introduces a healthy measure of democracy into the process.
And then we need to accept the rest of Theresa May's Deal. It's not perfect, but it is better than the disaster that would be either Remain or No Deal.
Wise words. I like the idea of NI deciding on the end of the backstop (maybe if no agreement after, say, 5 years?). Can you use the hotline I am sure you must have to Theresa to suggest it to her and ask her to put it to the EU?
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
The backstop could be ended by a unification vote with the republic
Indeed. Which is probably the best option for NI long term anyway.
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
The backstop could be ended by a unification vote with the republic
Isn't the problem with that logic the fact that the republic can't afford to take on Northern Ireland given how much the UK subsidises it.
The DUP have made is clear they will bring to government down if the May's Deal is carried. Labour leadership want a GE above all else. Labour leadership are ambivalent about Brexit. Therefore Labour will allow May's deal to pass.
Expect them to abstain at the last minute.
Santa I have been a good boy
Regards
HYUFD
As always with @HYUFD the logic is there (superficially) but the thesis doesn’t survive contact with reality
The DUP have made is clear they will bring to government down if the May's Deal is carried. Labour leadership want a GE above all else. Labour leadership are ambivalent about Brexit. Therefore Labour will allow May's deal to pass.
Expect them to abstain at the last minute.
Santa I have been a good boy
Regards
HYUFD
As always with @HYUFD the logic is there (superficially) but the thesis doesn’t survive contact with reality
Rather like the unalloyed horseshit you peddle regularly about parliamentary sovereignty.
Personally I always aim for at least alloyed horseshit - the lack of purity makes it seem authentic.
"Remain advocates should be thinking right now what they would do to meet the concerns of Leavers,"
Here is a (very long) list of the Brexiteers who told you this list of lies before the last vote, all of whom quit when they found out just how much hard work it would actually be.
Do you want to reward them for their failure with another shot at screwing it up, or do you want to listen to some experts this time?
Theres a long list of iying bstards still telling me the world will end, JLR will stop making cars and we'll be eating grass foi decades.The experts arent that expert ; theyre simply guessers and since they cant forecast 12 months how the hell can they forecast 12 years ?
The simple fact Remainers cant grasp is the the system might work for a privileged few but it doesnt work for the majority and until theres some sign that a change is needed gets in to their thick heads there is no way they will put the issue to bed.
If that wasn't you, one could be forgiven for thinking that was an argument for Corbyn.
I think youll find I often say Corbyn is more grounded than the Tories,
"Remain advocates should be thinking right now what they would do to meet the concerns of Leavers,"
Here is a (very long) list of the Brexiteers who told you this list of lies before the last vote, all of whom quit when they found out just how much hard work it would actually be.
Do you want to reward them for their failure with another shot at screwing it up, or do you want to listen to some experts this time?
Here is a (very long) list of remainers who told you that when you voted last time, your vote would be final.
Do you want to reward them for their lies and allow them to rule over you like feudal lords, or do you want to do the proper British thing and throw a handful of muck in their eye?
A vote to Remain in a second referendum would be about the biggest imaginable humiliation for Cameron.
what even worse the screwing a pig ?
I don’t particularly like her (my wife loathes her) but Sam’s not that bad!
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
The backstop could be ended by a unification vote with the republic
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
The backstop could be ended by a unification vote with the republic
Isn't the problem with that logic the fact that the republic can't afford to take on Northern Ireland given how much the UK subsidises it.
Surely they would be willing to take an economic hit for the unification of their country?
I don't want NI to leave the UK, but honestly sometimes it doesn't feel like it likes the rest of the UK much, even as it has loads of people who want to remain in the UK.
Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
On a point of order the UK does not have bottom-up democracy. We are a unitary state and constitutional monarchy. Power flows downwards from the crown. What power is vested in the devolved parliaments of the home nations is only by the good grace of Her Majesty.
If we're lucky sometimes power makes it as far down as Parliament, but only in exceptional circumstances.
It's a fascinating system really, since we generally pretend it is bottom up.
To quote Lord Varys, great thinker and eunuch:
Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick. A shadow on the wall. And a very small man can cast a very large shadow.
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
The backstop could be ended by a unification vote with the republic
Isn't the problem with that logic the fact that the republic can't afford to take on Northern Ireland given how much the UK subsidises it.
you could always ask the Nordies to take a 30% cut in their incomes
It’s not a second referendum but a third 1975 1-0. 2016, 1-1. We are either playing a second half or it’s a penalty shoot out! Who is going to Take the first kick?
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
The backstop could be ended by a unification vote with the republic
Isn't the problem with that logic the fact that the republic can't afford to take on Northern Ireland given how much the UK subsidises it.
Depends on how much the Republic wants it.
Obviously a far richer country so the comparison is not perfect, but Germany thought the price of vast subsidies being sent to the East was worth it to reunify with the DDR.
Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
Yep. For me the economic impact of this has always been vastly overstated by both sides but especially by remain. But I genuinely believe that the implications of the largest vote in U.K. history being disregarded will be devastating and make this country almost ungovernable for decades. Remainers focussing on tenths of a percent of GDP generated by flawed models seem to have no idea what they are doing to this country.
Random wikipediaing, but it claims that one is not disqualified from being an MP even if you are an MP for Ireland or a Commonwealth country. I knew they could vote, and stand for office here, but even when an MP in another country? I wonder if that has ever been done.
The DUP have made is clear they will bring to government down if the May's Deal is carried. Labour leadership want a GE above all else. Labour leadership are ambivalent about Brexit. Therefore Labour will allow May's deal to pass.
Expect them to abstain at the last minute.
Santa I have been a good boy
Regards
HYUFD
As always with @HYUFD the logic is there (superficially) but the thesis doesn’t survive contact with reality
The DUP have made is clear they will bring to government down if the May's Deal is carried. Labour leadership want a GE above all else. Labour leadership are ambivalent about Brexit. Therefore Labour will allow May's deal to pass.
Expect them to abstain at the last minute.
Santa I have been a good boy
Regards
HYUFD
As always with @HYUFD the logic is there (superficially) but the thesis doesn’t survive contact with reality
Rather like the unalloyed horseshit you peddle regularly about parliamentary sovereignty.
It’s not “horseshit”
Parliament is only sovereign in legislation - and even that can now (i think) be overruled by the Supreme Court
But with so many against tweaks are not going to convince 75 MPs to flip. Cosmetic won't cut it.
Thanks to the tireless parliamentary legerdemain of Dominic Grieve, whatever sordid little plan B May brings to the house now is going to be amended and salami sliced up the wazoo.
Ah yes, that parliamentary procedure adapted from the italian legislature I believe.
This is what happens when you don’t have a codified constitution. When consensus breaks down, it becomes a free-for-all.
The process of disintegration set in train by Blair is proceeding nicely.
I'm not. The big two are still polling well even with all this nonsense, because the public say they don't like partisan nonsense or chaos but they like compromising with their hated enemies even less. A government of national unity would require someone to bend on their position, a lot. If our MPs were capable of that a deal would be passed at some stage without a government of national unity.
Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
Yep. For me the economic impact of this has always been vastly overstated by both sides but especially by remain. But I genuinely believe that the implications of the largest vote in U.K. history being disregarded will be devastating and make this country almost ungovernable for decades. Remainers focussing on tenths of a percent of GDP generated by flawed models seem to have no idea what they are doing to this country.
Random wikipediaing, but it claims that one is not disqualified from being an MP even if you are an MP for Ireland or a Commonwealth country. I knew they could vote, and stand for office here, but even when an MP in another country? I wonder if that has ever been done.
Maybe some Australian MPs should come over here and give JRM some lessons in how to defenestrate a PM.
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
The backstop could be ended by a unification vote with the republic
Isn't the problem with that logic the fact that the republic can't afford to take on Northern Ireland given how much the UK subsidises it.
Surely they would be willing to take an economic hit for the unification of their country?
I don't want NI to leave the UK, but honestly sometimes it doesn't feel like it likes the rest of the UK much, even as it has loads of people who want to remain in the UK.
Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
On a point of order the UK does not have bottom-up democracy. We are a unitary state and constitutional monarchy. Power flows downwards from the crown. What power is vested in the devolved parliaments of the home nations is only by the good grace of Her Majesty.
If we're lucky sometimes power makes it as far down as Parliament, but only in exceptional circumstances.
It's a fascinating system really, since we generally pretend it is bottom up.
To quote Lord Varys, great thinker and eunuch:
Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick. A shadow on the wall. And a very small man can cast a very large shadow.
At the moment according to commentators like Laura Kuenssberg there is no Commons majority for another deeply divisive EUref2 but probably a Commons majority for Single Market + Customs Union so this is all very interesting but merely hypothetical and the most likely result if May's Deal goes down is the Commons votes for BINO instead
What does the E.U. say to SM+CU though?
It would remind the U.K. that Europe is not a menu of options from which Parliament can pick and choose - it is remain, the deal, or out. And it might add that it's about time Parliament learned that unicorns do not exist.
Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
On a point of order the UK does not have bottom-up democracy. We are a unitary state and constitutional monarchy. Power flows downwards from the crown. What power is vested in the devolved parliaments of the home nations is only by the good grace of Her Majesty.
If we're lucky sometimes power makes it as far down as Parliament, but only in exceptional circumstances.
It's a fascinating system really, since we generally pretend it is bottom up.
To quote Lord Varys, great thinker and eunuch:
Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick. A shadow on the wall. And a very small man can cast a very large shadow.
Random wikipediaing, but it claims that one is not disqualified from being an MP even if you are an MP for Ireland or a Commonwealth country. I knew they could vote, and stand for office here, but even when an MP in another country? I wonder if that has ever been done.
Maybe some Australian MPs should come over here and give JRM some lessons in how to defenestrate a PM.
Ha. In fairness their way is nuts - they certainly don't have the protection of no more contests if you win one vote.
Random wikipediaing, but it claims that one is not disqualified from being an MP even if you are an MP for Ireland or a Commonwealth country. I knew they could vote, and stand for office here, but even when an MP in another country? I wonder if that has ever been done.
Maybe some Australian MPs should come over here and give JRM some lessons in how to defenestrate a PM.
Ha. In fairness their way is nuts - they certainly don't have the protection of no more contests if you win one vote.
Labours plan was to hope the deal scraped through and then the Tories could own the whole sorry mess!
Unfortunately for them they’re going to have to do something , inaction is now not possible .
Len McLuskey is now trying to stop a second vote and continues to peddle a myth regarding Labour seats .
Even in Labour Leave areas a majority of supporters voted Remain. Corbyn thinks he can continue to sit on the fence and ignore the huge support for another vote in the membership aswell as the overwhelming majority of Labour voters who do not want Brexit .
This will all come to a head after Mays deal goes down . Keir Starmer who knocks spots off Corbyn for leadership will walk if Labour do not eventually end up backing another vote .
And if Starmer goes so does my vote for Labour . I have tolerated the pathetic fence sitting of Corbyn only because I understand the whole process has to play out . There will be no general election , this is wishful thinking , at that point Labour has to make a choice ! Either back a second vote or be held accountable for ignoring the huge majority of Labour voters .
Under a national unity government, Clarke could assemble a cabinet of soft-Brexit Tories and moderate Labourites to take a cold, hard look at the UK’s current options. They may determine that some form of soft Brexit is best for the country; or they could decide to abandon Brexit altogether.
Under a national unity government, Clarke could assemble a cabinet of soft-Brexit Tories and moderate Labourites to take a cold, hard look at the UK’s current options. They may determine that some form of soft Brexit is best for the country; or they could decide to abandon Brexit altogether.
Can imagine the ERG ritually disembowelling themselves on Parliament Green if Clarke became PM.
Labours plan was to hope the deal scraped through and then the Tories could own the whole sorry mess!
Unfortunately for them they’re going to have to do something , inaction is now not possible .
Yes, quite probably - it would be funny were it not so serious.
Interesting to see your strength of feeling on this, but I don't think there's much chance Labour do not switch to backing a vote - sure he will push for a GE but if that does not happen, and it is harder, they will go for a GE, and even the Tories might back that.
Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
On a point of order the UK does not have bottom-up democracy. We are a unitary state and constitutional monarchy. Power flows downwards from the crown. What power is vested in the devolved parliaments of the home nations is only by the good grace of Her Majesty.
If we're lucky sometimes power makes it as far down as Parliament, but only in exceptional circumstances.
It's a fascinating system really, since we generally pretend it is bottom up.
To quote Lord Varys, great thinker and eunuch:
Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick. A shadow on the wall. And a very small man can cast a very large shadow.
To quote Lord Vader, Sith Lord and sinister dude in a black cape:
"I am altering the deal. Pray I do not alter it any further!"
With such a divided country, it is unreasonable to have a full scale cliff edge Brexit or to fully sign up for EU membership. A deal is needed that addresses the concerns of both sides. That means substantially reducing EU immigration (especially among lower wage ones) and maintaining economic access. Nobody has put forward a tangible plan for doing that other than Mrs May.
There isn't going to be a second referendum because the risks and difficulties are too great.
The attempt to get one might fail; having got one leave may win; and if remain won it may be by the same sort of narrow margin which would resolve nothing. That leaves only a slender chance of a decisive and unifying second referendum. Folly upon folly solves nothing.
Since nothing can 'resolve' the matter at the moment the line of least resistance and maximum opportunity is for the present flawed deal to be passed by the House of Commons second time around, after a bit of cosmetic tweaking, on the back of Labour abstentions, with ERG and remainers reluctant support on the basis that all the alternatives are worse. Now that ERG know that the HoC can in practice block no deal, the present deal is their best chance. They just need a decent fig leaf to cover themselves with.
This then allows a great deal more diversity of possible futures (including Norway + and Norway for Now and Canada +) and has the advantage that the 600 pages of WA are already written. Backstop? Hold your nose and hope.
I would normally agree with your last couple of paragraphs. Problem is the positions are so entrenched now and no-one appears to be backing down, I just can’t see it. But maybe you’re right. I hope, for sanity’s sake, you are.
I know it’s crazy to say, but The Deal is probably the outcome that causes the least turmoil. Ok so no-one loves it but it a) keeps control of immigration policy, b) has the default that we’ll still be relatively close to the EU. It can legitimately be argued that it reflects, roughly, the referendum result of a narrow leave win. It’s leave with remainian characteristics, but not necessarily BINO.
I think that's all fair and I find it really hard to understand why so many seem to hate the Deal so much. No one has really articulated to me what is so bad about it. Seems a reasonable mid-point between No Deal and Remain to me.
Remainer though I am, I do not see a 2nd vote between No Deal and Remain ending happily. I would expect May's Deal to beat Remain and to beat No Deal is either of those choices were presented.
A deal v no deal referendum would be pointless; overwhelmingly Parliament favours the deal, if no deal is the only alternative, and they don't need a referendum to endorse it. Voting for such a vote is effectively voting for the deal without wanting to be seen to do so, with all the complications of legislation, delay, and uncertainty, before ending up back where we are now. Even I don't think they are that limp.
My fear is that the loons on both sides are so sure that the people will go their way, that they will agree on a No Deal - Remain referendum.
If we choose No Deal, then people will suddenly be shocked when it turns out that crashing out of the EU's existing relationships with other countries has an impact on the British economy. It will not be pretty.
It we choose Remain, then a very substantial minority of the people will feel utterly betrayed, and if you think politics is poisoned now, just wait until after this,
And, of course, the UK is due a recession. It might have nothing to do with whether we Remain or go No Deal. But it will come, and it will likely be nasty, and it will almost certainly be blamed on whatever choice we made.
It's time to tell the EU that the backstop needs to be endorsed - or ended - by the people of Northern Ireland. They will be cocky enough to think that they will never reject the EU's embrace (and they may be right). And it introduces a healthy measure of democracy into the process.
And then we need to accept the rest of Theresa May's Deal. It's not perfect, but it is better than the disaster that would be either Remain or No Deal.
Wise words. I like the idea of NI deciding on the end of the backstop (maybe if no agreement after, say, 5 years?). Can you use the hotline I am sure you must have to Theresa to suggest it to her and ask her to put it to the EU?
I third this. The Northern Irish people voting one way or another, with all sides agreeing to be bound by the result, would cut this Gordian knot.
Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
On a point of order the UK does not have bottom-up democracy. We are a unitary state and constitutional monarchy. Power flows downwards from the crown. What power is vested in the devolved parliaments of the home nations is only by the good grace of Her Majesty.
If we're lucky sometimes power makes it as far down as Parliament, but only in exceptional circumstances.
It's a fascinating system really, since we generally pretend it is bottom up.
To quote Lord Varys, great thinker and eunuch:
Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick. A shadow on the wall. And a very small man can cast a very large shadow.
To quote Lord Vader, Sith Lord and sinister dude in a black cape:
"I am altering the deal. Pray I do not alter it any further!"
Look, all I'm saying is that yes, Emperor Palpatine was a horrible tyrant, but by gods he worked damn hard to manipulate both sides of a civil war, took total control despite an attempt from the establishment to remove him, and led his supporters to command for another 20 years. He might be just the man to sort out the divisions in the Tory party.
With such a divided country, it is unreasonable to have a full scale cliff edge Brexit or to fully sign up for EU membership. A deal is needed that addresses the concerns of both sides. That means substantially reducing EU immigration (especially among lower wage ones) and maintaining economic access. Nobody has put forward a tangible plan for doing that other than Mrs May.
You seem, once again, to have confused "addressing the concern of both sides" with "adressing what I personally desire" once again.
I, on the other hand, find May's vindictive hatred of immigrants and the fact that it's literally the only part of Brexit she gives a shit about, a huge part of the reason why the deal is such a hideous clustertruck.
May doesn't care about the economic damage, she's happy as long as she's being vindictive to immigrants.
YOU may find that appealing, but don't you fucking DARE claim that May's long-standing hate affair with migrants is now some reasonable, centrist compromise.
Look, all I'm saying is that yes, Emperor Palpatine was a horrible tyrant, but by gods he worked damn hard to manipulate both sides of a civil war, took total control despite an attempt from the establishment to remove him, and led his supporters to command for another 20 years. He might be just the man to sort out the divisions in the Tory party.
Strong and stable sithship in the imperial interest.
Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
On a point of order the UK does not have bottom-up democracy. We are a unitary state and constitutional monarchy. Power flows downwards from the crown. What power is vested in the devolved parliaments of the home nations is only by the good grace of Her Majesty.
If we're lucky sometimes power makes it as far down as Parliament, but only in exceptional circumstances.
It's a fascinating system really, since we generally pretend it is bottom up.
To quote Lord Varys, great thinker and eunuch:
Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick. A shadow on the wall. And a very small man can cast a very large shadow.
To quote Lord Vader, Sith Lord and sinister dude in a black cape:
"I am altering the deal. Pray I do not alter it any further!"
Look, all I'm saying is that yes, Emperor Palpatine was a horrible tyrant, but by gods he worked damn hard to manipulate both sides of a civil war, took total control despite an attempt from the establishment to remove him, and led his supporters to command for another 20 years. He might be just the man to sort out the divisions in the Tory party.
There is a case for saying that by unifying the Galactic Empire and concentrating on building up the Imperial Navy and building superweapons, Palpatine converted the Republic into something that could withstand invasion from the Outer Rim.
Labours plan was to hope the deal scraped through and then the Tories could own the whole sorry mess!
Unfortunately for them they’re going to have to do something , inaction is now not possible .
Len McLuskey is now trying to stop a second vote and continues to peddle a myth regarding Labour seats .
Even in Labour Leave areas a majority of supporters voted Remain. Corbyn thinks he can continue to sit on the fence and ignore the huge support for another vote in the membership aswell as the overwhelming majority of Labour voters who do not want Brexit .
This will all come to a head after Mays deal goes down . Keir Starmer who knocks spots off Corbyn for leadership will walk if Labour do not eventually end up backing another vote .
And if Starmer goes so does my vote for Labour . I have tolerated the pathetic fence sitting of Corbyn only because I understand the whole process has to play out . There will be no general election , this is wishful thinking , at that point Labour has to make a choice ! Either back a second vote or be held accountable for ignoring the huge majority of Labour voters .
Yes the funny thing is that if the membership is to be listened to over one thing (choice of leader) then surely it should be listened to over another (EURef2).
Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
On a point of order the UK does not have bottom-up democracy. We are a unitary state and constitutional monarchy. Power flows downwards from the crown. What power is vested in the devolved parliaments of the home nations is only by the good grace of Her Majesty.
If we're lucky sometimes power makes it as far down as Parliament, but only in exceptional circumstances.
It's a fascinating system really, since we generally pretend it is bottom up.
To quote Lord Varys, great thinker and eunuch:
Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick. A shadow on the wall. And a very small man can cast a very large shadow.
To quote Lord Vader, Sith Lord and sinister dude in a black cape:
"I am altering the deal. Pray I do not alter it any further!"
Look, all I'm saying is that yes, Emperor Palpatine was a horrible tyrant, but by gods he worked damn hard to manipulate both sides of a civil war, took total control despite an attempt from the establishment to remove him, and led his supporters to command for another 20 years. He might be just the man to sort out the divisions in the Tory party.
Last time I was ambivalent, concerned about losing Cameron and Osborne and fairly sensible grown up government (other views are of course available). This time I might actually care enough to get off my well padded behind and campaign for leave.
But what leave?
I could live with May’s deal for all its deficiencies, I could live with Canada + or even Norway. No deal is trickier but with mini deals it would be ok. I just want out. And I don’t think I am alone.
the next round will not be about economics it will be about do we wish to retain our bottom up democracy or accept top down dirigisme
On a point of order the UK does not have bottom-up democracy. We are a unitary state and constitutional monarchy. Power flows downwards from the crown. What power is vested in the devolved parliaments of the home nations is only by the good grace of Her Majesty.
If we're lucky sometimes power makes it as far down as Parliament, but only in exceptional circumstances.
It's a fascinating system really, since we generally pretend it is bottom up.
To quote Lord Varys, great thinker and eunuch:
Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick. A shadow on the wall. And a very small man can cast a very large shadow.
To quote Lord Vader, Sith Lord and sinister dude in a black cape:
"I am altering the deal. Pray I do not alter it any further!"
Look, all I'm saying is that yes, Emperor Palpatine was a horrible tyrant, but by gods he worked damn hard to manipulate both sides of a civil war, took total control despite an attempt from the establishment to remove him, and led his supporters to command for another 20 years. He might be just the man to sort out the divisions in the Tory party.
"Oh, I'm afraid the deflector shield will be quite operational when your friends arrive!"
Labours plan was to hope the deal scraped through and then the Tories could own the whole sorry mess!
Unfortunately for them they’re going to have to do something , inaction is now not possible .
Yes, quite probably - it would be funny were it not so serious.
Interesting to see your strength of feeling on this, but I don't think there's much chance Labour do not switch to backing a vote - sure he will push for a GE but if that does not happen, and it is harder, they will go for a GE, and even the Tories might back that.
For what it is worth I do think Remain would win. Too many leavers would be appalled at either the deal or no deal depending on what remain was up against, or just tired and frustrated by it all, while remainers have had a shot in the arm and are more fired up than ever.
If you think leavers won't be fired up by the crowing triumphalism of remainers who are already salivating at the mere thought of a second referendum, I have a Neil Kinnock on the eve of the 1992 election sized bridge to sell you.
I don't mean some leavers won't be fired up, I mean as a whole they will not. I know this to be true because I voted leave and I'm not going to be fired up by a second referendum, I'm going to be annoyed and depressed at all the wasted time and effort and the pointlessness of it all.
There will be some very fired up leavers. But not all leavers want the deal, or no deal, depending on what would be on offer in the question. That dims enthusiasm for a start. Then the sheer ineptitude that got us to this point depresses the vote a little bit more. People thinking it is all pointless as MPs won't follow through anyway.
It adds up. If it is about getting the same people out as last time, leavers will find some harder to get out than remain will.
We talk a lot about the remainers who didn't turn up in 2016. How if last year's "youthquake" for Corbyn had turned out a year earlier for remain, there might have been a different result.
What we don't take into account is how many people who didn't vote leave in the first referendum can be persuaded to vote for it this time around.
I actually believe that leaverism and corbynism are two cheeks of the same arse, they're protest votes against an establishment that doesn't bloody listen.
It's my guess that if leave focuses on a "Westminster sent you a message - up yours! Send them an up yours right back" (to paraphrase, rather crudely!), they can "do a Corbyn" and get even more of the people we see as traditionally disenfranchised out to vote.
Remainers have (.
Just a shame that Brexit would make most of those worse, eh?
Yes, there is a pretty good correlation between Leave voting areas and areas most likely to suffer from Brexit. It is going to be a lesson in tough love.
Not a perfect correlation though. Liverpool voted remain. Chichester voted leave.
Random wikipediaing, but it claims that one is not disqualified from being an MP even if you are an MP for Ireland or a Commonwealth country. I knew they could vote, and stand for office here, but even when an MP in another country? I wonder if that has ever been done.
You can't have a government of national unity that simply brings together like-minded people on both sides of the House. That's just a government.
Indeed. It would have to include May and Corbyn for a start to be a GONU. Ramsay Mac leading a mainly Tory Cabinet was one. Lloyd George at the Coupon Election. Churchill with Attlee and Bevan. Ken Clarke and Starmer, Chukka, Soubry, Lib Dems et al would be a Parliamentary centrist coup. Neither National nor unifying.
Random wikipediaing, but it claims that one is not disqualified from being an MP even if you are an MP for Ireland or a Commonwealth country. I knew they could vote, and stand for office here, but even when an MP in another country? I wonder if that has ever been done.
For what it is worth I do think Remain would win. Too many leavers would be appalled at either the deal or no deal depending on what remain was up against, or just tired and frustrated by it all, while remainers have had a shot in the arm and are more fired up than ever.
If you think leavers won't be fired up by the crowing triumphalism of remainers who are already salivating at the mere thought of a second referendum, I have a Neil Kinnock on the eve of the 1992 election sized bridge to sell you.
I don't mean some leavers won't be fired up, I mean as a whole they will not. I know this to be true because I voted leave and I'm not going to be fired up by a second referendum, I'm going to be annoyed and depressed at all the wasted time and effort and the pointlessness of it all.
There will be some very fired up leavers. But not all leavers want the deal, or no deal, depending on what would be on offer in the question. That dims enthusiasm for a start. Then the sheer ineptitude that got us to this point depresses the vote a little bit more. People thinking it is all pointless as MPs won't follow through anyway.
It adds up. If it is about getting the same people out as last time, leavers will find some harder to get out than remain will.
We talk a lot about the remainers who didn't turn up in 2016. How if last year's "youthquake" for Corbyn had turned out a year earlier for remain, there might have been a different result.
What we don't take into account is how many people who didn't vote leave in the first referendum can be persuaded to vote for it this time around.
I actually believe that leaverism and corbynism are two cheeks of the same arse, they're protest votes against an establishment that doesn't bloody listen.
It's my guess that if leave focuses on a "Westminster sent you a message - up yours! Send them an up yours right back" (to paraphrase, rather crudely!), they can "do a Corbyn" and get even more of the people we see as traditionally disenfranchised out to vote.
Remainers have (.
Just a shame that Brexit would make most of those worse, eh?
Yes, there is a pretty good correlation between Leave voting areas and areas most likely to suffer from Brexit. It is going to be a lesson in tough love.
Not a perfect correlation though. Liverpool voted remain. Chichester voted leave.
BBC4's trailer to new series "Sinner" has a few bars to the intro to "The Sinner in Me" from Depeche Mode's 2005 album Playing The Angel. It was an album track, never released as a single.
Labours plan was to hope the deal scraped through and then the Tories could own the whole sorry mess!
Unfortunately for them they’re going to have to do something , inaction is now not possible .
Len McLuskey is now trying to stop a second vote and continues to peddle a myth regarding Labour seats .
Even in Labour Leave areas a majority of supporters voted Remain. Corbyn thinks he can continue to sit on the fence and ignore the huge support for another vote in the membership aswell as the overwhelming majority of Labour voters who do not want Brexit .
This will all come to a head after Mays deal goes down . Keir Starmer who knocks spots off Corbyn for leadership will walk if Labour do not eventually end up backing another vote .
And if Starmer goes so does my vote for Labour . I have tolerated the pathetic fence sitting of Corbyn only because I understand the whole process has to play out . There will be no general election , this is wishful thinking , at that point Labour has to make a choice ! Either back a second vote or be held accountable for ignoring the huge majority of Labour voters .
Yes the funny thing is that if the membership is to be listened to over one thing (choice of leader) then surely it should be listened to over another (EURef2).
Corbyn has selective hearing when it comes to a second vote . I expect the Labour infighting will start big time after the vote . The chaos in the Commons is going to get worse if that was at all possible !
Nothing will. The genie’s been released. It will take a proper, existential bullet heavy war which brings a common purpose to put it back in. On balance I’d rather it stayed out.
Nothing will. The genie’s been released. It will take a proper, existential bullet heavy war which brings a common purpose to put it back in. On balance I’d rather it stayed out.
Realistically this is a debate that would only be finally settled if the EU collapsed so there was nothing left for us to rejoin.
That would seem a trifle excessive, so Boris and Corbyn are probably planning it.
The Unite general secretary, Len McCluskey, has privately told Labour MPs the party should have severe reservations about backing a fresh Brexit referendum, saying voters could see it as a betrayal.
Nothing will. The genie’s been released. It will take a proper, existential bullet heavy war which brings a common purpose to put it back in. On balance I’d rather it stayed out.
Realistically this is a debate that would only be finally settled if the EU collapsed so there was nothing left for us to rejoin.
That would seem a trifle excessive, so Boris and Corbyn are probably planning it.
So you are ruling out tag team wrestling then? Seems a bit premature to me. Especially when leave have so many fat b*******
My heart sinks when politicians like Sajid Javid say, "We will be bringing a complete end to freedom." (his words). I'm not the target audience for anti-immigrant rhetoric. Nevertheless, I don't see any mileage in Remainers coming up with simplistic solutions to perceived immigration problems, to counter those of Leavers.
The big Remainer mistake IMO is to present a second referendum as a choice, rather than as the only sensible and democratically valid way to extricate ourselves from a mess..
I'm wondering if May can't get her deal passed then the best course for the Conservatives would be a general election.
It looks increasingly difficult for them to continue as a functioning government, the economy is perhaps at its peak and they're doing pretty well in the polls.
Things could get much worse for them next year and if they lose Brexit then they're bolloxed IMO.
Comments
The sensible thing to do would be to just accept the deal as it stands - without faffing about with an ‘endorsement from the people of NI’ - I mean, WTF is this?
Progress is built on compromise, and this is a compromise. People should get over it.
If not, then EEA+CU is a decent fallback. A second referendum would usher in yet another racist xenophobic divisive nightmare.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preston_By-pass
Claiming it is humiliation is a dangerously emotional approach
We must do what is necessary no matter how distasteful
In this case that’s vote for May’s deal
However MPs are not seemingly making that kind of calculation. They are simply disavowing compromise explicitly or in pursuit of hypothetical different compromises, some of which are more plausible than others.
I don't want NI to leave the UK, but honestly sometimes it doesn't feel like it likes the rest of the UK much, even as it has loads of people who want to remain in the UK.
Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick. A shadow on the wall. And a very small man can cast a very large shadow.
Take the first kick?
Obviously a far richer country so the comparison is not perfect, but Germany thought the price of vast subsidies being sent to the East was worth it to reunify with the DDR.
Parliament is only sovereign in legislation - and even that can now (i think) be overruled by the Supreme Court
The process of disintegration set in train by Blair is proceeding nicely.
What larks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conleth_Hill
As the most experienced elected parliamentarian, the Father of the House should be chosen.
Why not the longest serving member of the Lords, Lord Denham?. He has been a member since 1949, not sure how his health might be.
In all seriousness if she hadn’t put herself forward in 2016 the ideal candidate for leading a GONU might well have been... Theresa May.....
Unfortunately for them they’re going to have to do something , inaction is now not possible .
Len McLuskey is now trying to stop a second vote and continues to peddle a myth regarding Labour seats .
Even in Labour Leave areas a majority of supporters voted Remain. Corbyn thinks he can continue to sit on the fence and ignore the huge support for another vote in the membership aswell as the overwhelming majority of Labour voters who do not want Brexit .
This will all come to a head after Mays deal goes down . Keir Starmer who knocks spots off Corbyn for leadership will walk if Labour do not eventually end up backing another vote .
And if Starmer goes so does my vote for Labour . I have tolerated the pathetic fence sitting of Corbyn only because I understand the whole process has to play out . There will be no general election , this is wishful thinking , at that point Labour has to make a choice ! Either back a second vote or be held accountable for ignoring the huge majority of Labour voters .
https://www.euronews.com/2017/07/26/view-a-crossparty-way-forward-to-avoid-brexit-disaster
Under a national unity government, Clarke could assemble a cabinet of soft-Brexit Tories and moderate Labourites to take a cold, hard look at the UK’s current options. They may determine that some form of soft Brexit is best for the country; or they could decide to abandon Brexit altogether.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEsFtiruIok
N.B. This is not an argument against.
Interesting to see your strength of feeling on this, but I don't think there's much chance Labour do not switch to backing a vote - sure he will push for a GE but if that does not happen, and it is harder, they will go for a GE, and even the Tories might back that.
"I am altering the deal. Pray I do not alter it any further!"
I, on the other hand, find May's vindictive hatred of immigrants and the fact that it's literally the only part of Brexit she gives a shit about, a huge part of the reason why the deal is such a hideous clustertruck.
May doesn't care about the economic damage, she's happy as long as she's being vindictive to immigrants.
YOU may find that appealing, but don't you fucking DARE claim that May's long-standing hate affair with migrants is now some reasonable, centrist compromise.
Pause.
Ah, my coat.
From memory, I think Paisley Snr had a triple mandate once, but happy to be corrected.
Ken Clarke and Starmer, Chukka, Soubry, Lib Dems et al would be a Parliamentary centrist coup.
Neither National nor unifying.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN04101
BBC4's trailer to new series "Sinner" has a few bars to the intro to "The Sinner in Me" from Depeche Mode's 2005 album Playing The Angel. It was an album track, never released as a single.
The only way to settle the debate.
If not, may I offer you my respectful contrafibularities on the robustness of your digestive system.
That would seem a trifle excessive, so Boris and Corbyn are probably planning it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/05/unite-leader-warns-labour-against-backing-second-eu-referendum
The big Remainer mistake IMO is to present a second referendum as a choice, rather than as the only sensible and democratically valid way to extricate ourselves from a mess..
It looks increasingly difficult for them to continue as a functioning government, the economy is perhaps at its peak and they're doing pretty well in the polls.
Things could get much worse for them next year and if they lose Brexit then they're bolloxed IMO.