politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a huge political day the main Brexit linked betting changes
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Quite, probably a lot longer.AlastairMeeks said:
Only five years?Scott_P said:
A second referendum would have to produce a course of action though, which means ranked choice.
A mandate to renegotiate wouldn’t be any kind of solution, though, so what deal option(s) should be on there ? May ? Norway + (whatever that is) ?
If the Commons can’t achieve a consensus on Brexit, why would they be able to do so on referendum terms ?
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I’m sorry, it’s early and my brain isn’t working.Pulpstar said:
I think it makes the 1.83 available for a generic Dem win good valueTheScreamingEagles said:
Big shout out to the PBer who called turnout would be so high.Alistair said:
Pineapple puss to all those that said turnout wouldn’t be anywhere near 50%.
Which market is that?0 -
But the reduction in caloric intake due to the chaos if this deal is voted down will reduce it.rottenborough said:
Doesn't that add weight to the case?Pulpstar said:Looks like
Not if you're the DUP, it's superbrottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
(Can I please correct one misconception? The CJEU has NOT ruled that A50 can be unilaterally revoked. The Advocate General has said he believes it can be, and they may, but are not obliged to, follow his view.)0 -
Mainly because no one in government wanted to admit to the bait and switch.Notch said:
Some countries set a threshold for turnout, but is there a single country in the world where ANY kind of proposed change being voted on in a referendum, whether constitutional or otherwise, is declared the victor only if it wins by something other than a simple majority?Benpointer said:
Indeed - any constitutional referendum should have a sensible threshold set.rottenborough said:
Bollx.grabcocque said:More good news.
Julia Hitler-Brewer is hecking furious rn https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1070060079716667392
Seems to me the HoC is a fair reflection of a country utterly divided, roughly 50:50 on the EU, with various sub-groups within each portion who disagree on various aspects and nuances.
Yes, Leave won. But by far too small a margin to settle matters.
Cameron's failure to add a threshold was a calamity.
David Cameron's failure wasn't that he didn't require Leave to achieve 53%, or 66.7%, or some other figure bigger than 51.9%, which would have been idiotic and probably caused the mess the country is in by now to be even worse than it is. His failure was that he didn't convince enough people of the merits of staying in the EU. Partly that was because he wasn't fighting against a discredited Labour government that had been in office for 13 years and whose leader had just showed himself as a two-faced b*stard when he expressed his utmost contempt for a working class woman on film, nor was he able to play an "I agree with Nick" move. Mainly it was because no British government had ever bothered to channel propaganda to the Morlocks that painted the EU as an "us". Not many Tory clubs hang pictures of Edward Heath on their walls either. Which doesn't let Cameron off the hook. During his 7 years in office he didn't even try.
If you try to build a political edifice without legitimacy, like a skyscraper without proper foundations, it will fall over at some point
Some, like the Tower of Pisa, might last longer than others (the Tower of Babel) but they will add fall in the end
“Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”0 -
Conservative whips have already been ‘suggesting’ to MPs that if the deal passes they’ll get to see their families for Christmas.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
The suggestion of course being that if it doesn’t pass there isn’t going to be a recess due to the impasse. I’m all for having the Commons sit from 8am until midnight every day until they can agree on a way forward.0 -
She would be just about the only person in the Tory party who would want one now. So, she can't make a decision that it is in the national interest to have a GE.edmundintokyo said:
What's the problem? Jeremy Corbyn says he wants a General Election, so if TMay wants one too there's nothing to stop her asking Parliament to vote for one.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.0 -
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28009878/market?marketId=1.128988348TheScreamingEagles said:
I’m sorry, it’s early and my brain isn’t working.Pulpstar said:
I think it makes the 1.83 available for a generic Dem win good valueTheScreamingEagles said:
Big shout out to the PBer who called turnout would be so high.Alistair said:
Pineapple puss to all those that said turnout wouldn’t be anywhere near 50%.
Which market is that?0 -
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.0 -
It is abundantly clear that the Moggites have no real interest in government - just forcing some version of Brexit which conforms to their strange prejudices, and leaving it up to someone else to sort out the mess.Scott_P said:
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No, rather it is human nature not to fully appreciate the benefits of what you have, until it is gone.Charles said:
Mainly because no one in government wanted to admit to the bait and switch.Notch said:
Some countries set a threshold for turnout, but is there a single country in the world where ANY kind of proposed change being voted on in a referendum, whether constitutional or otherwise, is declared the victor only if it wins by something other than a simple majority?Benpointer said:
Indeed - any constitutional referendum should have a sensible threshold set.rottenborough said:
Bollx.grabcocque said:More good news.
Julia Hitler-Brewer is hecking furious rn https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1070060079716667392
Seems to me the HoC is a fair reflection of a country utterly divided, roughly 50:50 on the EU, with various sub-groups within each portion who disagree on various aspects and nuances.
Yes, Leave won. But by far too small a margin to settle matters.
Cameron's failure to add a threshold was a calamity.
David Cameron's failure wasn't that he didn't require Leave to achieve 53%, or 66.7%, or some other figure bigger than 51.9%, which would have been idiotic and probably caused the mess the country is in by now to be even worse than it is. His failure was that he didn't convince enough people of the merits of staying in the EU. Partly that was because he wasn't fighting against a discredited Labour government that had been in office for 13 years and whose leader had just showed himself as a two-faced b*stard when he expressed his utmost contempt for a working class woman on film, nor was he able to play an "I agree with Nick" move. Mainly it was because no British government had ever bothered to channel propaganda to the Morlocks that painted the EU as an "us". Not many Tory clubs hang pictures of Edward Heath on their walls either. Which doesn't let Cameron off the hook. During his 7 years in office he didn't even try.
If you try to build a political edifice without legitimacy, like a skyscraper without proper foundations, it will fall over at some point
Some, like the Tower of Pisa, might last longer than others (the Tower of Babel) but they will add fall in the end
“Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”0 -
The problem with such a clause is it would have added further weight to the claim the 'establishment' was rigging the ballot for its own ends.Charles said:
Mainly because no one in government wanted to admit to the bait and switch.Notch said:
Some countries set a threshold for turnout, but is there a single country in the world where ANY kind of proposed change being voted on in a referendum, whether constitutional or otherwise, is declared the victor only if it wins by something other than a simple majority?Benpointer said:
Indeed - any constitutional referendum should have a sensible threshold set.rottenborough said:
Bollx.grabcocque said:More good news.
Julia Hitler-Brewer is hecking furious rn https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1070060079716667392
Seems to me the HoC is a fair reflection of a country utterly divided, roughly 50:50 on the EU, with various sub-groups within each portion who disagree on various aspects and nuances.
Yes, Leave won. But by far too small a margin to settle matters.
Cameron's failure to add a threshold was a calamity.
David Cameron's failure wasn't that he didn't require Leave to achieve 53%, or 66.7%, or some other figure bigger than 51.9%, which would have been idiotic and probably caused the mess the country is in by now to be even worse than it is. His failure was that he didn't convince enough people of the merits of staying in the EU. Partly that was because he wasn't fighting against a discredited Labour government that had been in office for 13 years and whose leader had just showed himself as a two-faced b*stard when he expressed his utmost contempt for a working class woman on film, nor was he able to play an "I agree with Nick" move. Mainly it was because no British government had ever bothered to channel propaganda to the Morlocks that painted the EU as an "us". Not many Tory clubs hang pictures of Edward Heath on their walls either. Which doesn't let Cameron off the hook. During his 7 years in office he didn't even try.
If you try to build a political edifice without legitimacy, like a skyscraper without proper foundations, it will fall over at some point
Some, like the Tower of Pisa, might last longer than others (the Tower of Babel) but they will add fall in the end
“Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”
A more plausible way forward would have been the Scotland clause - a minimum of 40% of the entire electorate would have to vote for the change - but again, that was a wrecking amendment, and in case nobody has noticed, it left a lasting legacy of bitterness.
But also, I would hesitate before responding in any detail to Grabcocque, whose name amply sums up his character.0 -
In an election where the actual votes merely determine the voters who make the final decision the voter turnout doesn't matter. Remember Hilary won the national vote in 2016 but a lot of her votes were additional surplus votes on the coasts..TheScreamingEagles said:
I’m sorry, it’s early and my brain isn’t working.Pulpstar said:
I think it makes the 1.83 available for a generic Dem win good valueTheScreamingEagles said:
Big shout out to the PBer who called turnout would be so high.Alistair said:
Pineapple puss to all those that said turnout wouldn’t be anywhere near 50%.
Which market is that?0 -
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My wager is with Ladbrokes thus far on this one as it's a binary choice - so nothing to lay and no premium chargeBarnesian said:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28009878/market?marketId=1.128988348TheScreamingEagles said:
I’m sorry, it’s early and my brain isn’t working.Pulpstar said:
I think it makes the 1.83 available for a generic Dem win good valueTheScreamingEagles said:
Big shout out to the PBer who called turnout would be so high.Alistair said:
Pineapple puss to all those that said turnout wouldn’t be anywhere near 50%.
Which market is that?0 -
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
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Except the bit about actually having a preferred form of Brexit.SquareRoot said:0 -
Pisa is beng steadily unleant. It will likely outlast the EU.Charles said:
Mainly because no one in government wanted to admit to the bait and switch.Notch said:
Some countries set a threshold for turnout, but is there a single country in the world where ANY kind of proposed change being voted on in a referendum, whether constitutional or otherwise, is declared the victor only if it wins by something other than a simple majority?Benpointer said:
Indeed - any constitutional referendum should have a sensible threshold set.rottenborough said:
Bollx.grabcocque said:More good news.
Julia Hitler-Brewer is hecking furious rn https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1070060079716667392
Seems to me the HoC is a fair reflection of a country utterly divided, roughly 50:50 on the EU, with various sub-groups within each portion who disagree on various aspects and nuances.
Yes, Leave won. But by far too small a margin to settle matters.
Cameron's failure to add a threshold was a calamity.
David Cameron's failure wasn't that he didn't require Leave to achieve 53%, or 66.7%, or some other figure bigger than 51.9%, which would have been idiotic and probably caused the mess the country is in by now to be even worse than it is. His failure was that he didn't convince enough people of the merits of staying in the EU. Partly that was because he wasn't fighting against a discredited Labour government that had been in office for 13 years and whose leader had just showed himself as a two-faced b*stard when he expressed his utmost contempt for a working class woman on film, nor was he able to play an "I agree with Nick" move. Mainly it was because no British government had ever bothered to channel propaganda to the Morlocks that painted the EU as an "us". Not many Tory clubs hang pictures of Edward Heath on their walls either. Which doesn't let Cameron off the hook. During his 7 years in office he didn't even try.
If you try to build a political edifice without legitimacy, like a skyscraper without proper foundations, it will fall over at some point
Some, like the Tower of Pisa, might last longer than others (the Tower of Babel) but they will add fall in the end
“Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”
0 -
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.0 -
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Has a second referendum become odds on yet?0 -
Except it wouldn’t be quite true. Corbyn is deluded in a different manner; he believes he could succeed in government.SquareRoot said:
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EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.0 -
From a partisan viewpoint I'm fine with letting the Government extend its contempt for a few days - extends the story. But she may say "tomorrow" which would be accepted without quibble. If she says "Oh, around the 12th" she'll be seen as taking the piss.David_Evershed said:
Andrea Leadsom gave no undertaking to release the full legal advice - only that they would respoind on Wednesday. Bercow and Labour let her off the hook by not following up on the ambiguous reply.NickPalmer said:
No, but they've found another way to annoy people - apparently they may not release the legal guidance tomorrow, merely announce tomorrow that they will comply at a later date.0 -
Given the way the Conservative party elects their leader how on earth is Dominic Raab the current favourite to be next leader (odds 8.6).
0 -
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
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The Suez moment is very close now.There will be much recrimination. Worth remembering in the long term the UK emerged from Suez stronger as an internationalist nation with politicians better equipped to understand how the world worked.0
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A small problem is that it's subject to Parliamentary consent. I think there might be a little revolt about that. And to be fair the problem in Parliament is not that they're short of time to reflect - they've had two years. The problem is that they've reflected and come up with irreoncilable views.Sandpit said:
Conservative whips have already been ‘suggesting’ to MPs that if the deal passes they’ll get to see their families for Christmas.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
The suggestion of course being that if it doesn’t pass there isn’t going to be a recess due to the impasse. I’m all for having the Commons sit from 8am until midnight every day until they can agree on a way forward.0 -
That could be something for the MPs to debate over Christmas.Nigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?0 -
Indeed. Britons who saw their birthrights to sovereignty successfully given away in Maastricht and Lisbon would agree.IanB2 said:
No, rather it is human nature not to fully appreciate the benefits of what you have, until it is gone.Charles said:
Mainly because no one in government wanted to admit to the bait and switch.Notch said:
Some countries set a threshold for turnout, but is there a single country in the world where ANY kind of proposed change being voted on in a referendum, whether constitutional or otherwise, is declared the victor only if it wins by something other than a simple majority?Benpointer said:
Indeed - any constitutional referendum should have a sensible threshold set.rottenborough said:
Bollx.grabcocque said:More good news.
Julia Hitler-Brewer is hecking furious rn https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1070060079716667392
Seems to me the HoC is a fair reflection of a country utterly divided, roughly 50:50 on the EU, with various sub-groups within each portion who disagree on various aspects and nuances.
Yes, Leave won. But by far too small a margin to settle matters.
Cameron's failure to add a threshold was a calamity.
David Cameron's failure wasn't that he didn't require Leave to achieve 53%, or 66.7%, or some other figure bigger than 51.9%, which would have been idiotic and probably caused the mess the country is in by now to be even worse than it is. His failure was that he didn't convince enough people of the merits of staying in the EU. Partly that was because he wasn't fighting against a discredited Labour government that had been in office for 13 years and whose leader had just showed himself as a two-faced b*stard when he expressed his utmost contempt for a working class woman on film, nor was he able to play an "I agree with Nick" move. Mainly it was because no British government had ever bothered to channel propaganda to the Morlocks that painted the EU as an "us". Not many Tory clubs hang pictures of Edward Heath on their walls either. Which doesn't let Cameron off the hook. During his 7 years in office he didn't even try.
If you try to build a political edifice without legitimacy, like a skyscraper without proper foundations, it will fall over at some point
Some, like the Tower of Pisa, might last longer than others (the Tower of Babel) but they will add fall in the end
“Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”0 -
Keep en locked in the chamber on Christmas day I sayNickPalmer said:
A small problem is that it's subject to Parliamentary consent. I think there might be a little revolt about that. And to be fair the problem in Parliament is not that they're short of time to reflect - they've had two years. The problem is that they've reflected and come up with irreoncilable views.Sandpit said:
Conservative whips have already been ‘suggesting’ to MPs that if the deal passes they’ll get to see their families for Christmas.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
The suggestion of course being that if it doesn’t pass there isn’t going to be a recess due to the impasse. I’m all for having the Commons sit from 8am until midnight every day until they can agree on a way forward.0 -
The Govt isnt in control any more...NickPalmer said:
A small problem is that it's subject to Parliamentary consent. I think there might be a little revolt about that. And to be fair the problem in Parliament is not that they're short of time to reflect - they've had two years. The problem is that they've reflected and come up with irreoncilable views.Sandpit said:
Conservative whips have already been ‘suggesting’ to MPs that if the deal passes they’ll get to see their families for Christmas.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
The suggestion of course being that if it doesn’t pass there isn’t going to be a recess due to the impasse. I’m all for having the Commons sit from 8am until midnight every day until they can agree on a way forward.0 -
Nigelb said:
Except it wouldn’t be quite true. Corbyn is deluded in a different manner; he believes he could succeed in government.SquareRoot said:
Well Nick Palmer thinks Labour look competent
(he must think it as he has started on here that he never posts anything he knows not to be true!)(but then I guess everyone is entitled to be deluded at times.)
I guess anything looks competent to the shambles going on at the moment. All 650 MP's are to blame. Ironically, it would seem that the ERG have the traits of being " gadarene". I await the outcome with interest!
Oh for some TMS...0 -
I) They willNigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
2) Ranked choice Deal, No Deal exit, Remain hopefully0 -
Elsewhere, it appears Biden is running (“I am the most qualified to be President”), and Deval Patrick isn’t.
The Democratic field will whittle itself down very quickly to the handful of candidates able to raise serious money.0 -
Maybe the AG hasn’t actually written down his legal advice yet?NickPalmer said:
From a partisan viewpoint I'm fine with letting the Government extend its contempt for a few days - extends the story. But she may say "tomorrow" which would be accepted without quibble. If she says "Oh, around the 12th" she'll be seen as taking the piss.David_Evershed said:
Andrea Leadsom gave no undertaking to release the full legal advice - only that they would respoind on Wednesday. Bercow and Labour let her off the hook by not following up on the ambiguous reply.NickPalmer said:
No, but they've found another way to annoy people - apparently they may not release the legal guidance tomorrow, merely announce tomorrow that they will comply at a later date.
https://videosift.com/british/video/Yes-Prime-Minister-How-To-Take-Minutes-From-A-Meeting0 -
Which deal ?Pulpstar said:
I) They willNigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
2) Ranked choice Deal, No Deal exit, Remain hopefully
(The only one we know is deliverable at the moment is May’s.)
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That settles it then. There’s no plot.Plank said:Laura K is speculating that the Grieve amendment could have been secretly supported by the chief whip in the hope it will end up helping TMay.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-464494980 -
Raab is now joint second with Javid on 11% each behind Boris who leads on 24% in the new ConHome Tory members surveyeek said:Given the way the Conservative party elects their leader how on earth is Dominic Raab the current favourite to be next leader (odds 8.6).
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/johnson-distrusted-by-conservative-mps-clung-to-by-party-members-he-extends-his-lead-in-our-next-tory-leader-survey.html0 -
Might not the opposite approach work better? After the deal is voted down, May just says, right, see you in 21 days, to run the clock down and concentrate minds.Sandpit said:
Conservative whips have already been ‘suggesting’ to MPs that if the deal passes they’ll get to see their families for Christmas.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
The suggestion of course being that if it doesn’t pass there isn’t going to be a recess due to the impasse. I’m all for having the Commons sit from 8am until midnight every day until they can agree on a way forward.0 -
A Tory landslide would give May the votes to get her deal through.Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
A Tory majority might give her the votes to screw Northern Ireland and develop a new deal.
A Labour win and Corbyn would I suspect easily get the votes to pass whatever deal he came up with, if he agreed to a second referendum on his deal.0 -
Yep. Very good timing from the advocate general too. Continuity remainers would be silly to give up now and even if nearly all the ERG backed the deal some more remainers are needed.anothernick said:
Yes I think this is now the most likely outcome.daodao said:
I now expect the Remainer MPs, who form the majority, to propose a 2nd referendum, which on the basis of the evidence that you have publicised, will lead to the cancellation of Brexit.Scott_P said:
There is no Commons majoritynfor any exit deal, "Norway" included, and no deal is not an option.
So a second referendum it will be and Article 50 will be revoked.
How long before labour back remain? They aren't going to take no stance in a referendum as 90% of them will campaign for remain.
0 -
Slaves to the grid? Is it possible Theresa May would, two years ago, have given her right arm to be here, or somewhere very near here, and that Number 10 should stop fighting on all fronts and accept the new reality rather than risk precipitating a no deal exit, a change of leader, or Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street?0
-
Grieve deserves considerable credit for his amendment.timmo said:
The Govt isnt in control any more...NickPalmer said:
A small problem is that it's subject to Parliamentary consent. I think there might be a little revolt about that. And to be fair the problem in Parliament is not that they're short of time to reflect - they've had two years. The problem is that they've reflected and come up with irreoncilable views.Sandpit said:
Conservative whips have already been ‘suggesting’ to MPs that if the deal passes they’ll get to see their families for Christmas.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
The suggestion of course being that if it doesn’t pass there isn’t going to be a recess due to the impasse. I’m all for having the Commons sit from 8am until midnight every day until they can agree on a way forward.
It is notable the the official opposition were unable to come up with anything so effective..
0 -
We don't know what a GE would throw up. But that is part of the system. It is up to the collective of the people what the makeup of the Commons becomes next.rkrkrk said:
A Tory landslide would give May the votes to get her deal through.Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
A Tory majority might give her the votes to screw Northern Ireland and develop a new deal.
A Labour win and Corbyn would I suspect easily get the votes to pass whatever deal he came up with, if he agreed to a second referendum on his deal.
Seems to me at this point this would be less divisive than another referendum.
Worth trying first? After an A50 extension of say 6 months.0 -
No it doesn't. I've never understood the antipathy for it. If the government can't function there are provisions to hold early elections.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
And were current polls correct a GE would not make things better anyway, we'd still have a confused situation.0 -
But in 1992 over 90% of voters voted for parties that had manifesto commitments to ratify the Maastricht treaty.Mortimer said:
Indeed. Britons who saw their birthrights to sovereignty successfully given away in Maastricht and Lisbon would agree.IanB2 said:
No, rather it is human nature not to fully appreciate the benefits of what you have, until it is gone.Charles said:
Mainly because no one in government wanted to admit to the bait and switch.Notch said:
Some countries set a threshold for turnout, but is there a single country in the world where ANY kind of proposed change being voted on in a referendum, whether constitutional or otherwise, is declared the victor only if it wins by something other than a simple majority?Benpointer said:
Indeed - any constitutional referendum should have a sensible threshold set.rottenborough said:
Bollx.grabcocque said:More good news.
Julia Hitler-Brewer is hecking furious rn https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1070060079716667392
Seems to me the HoC is a fair reflection of a country utterly divided, roughly 50:50 on the EU, with various sub-groups within each portion who disagree on various aspects and nuances.
Yes, Leave won. But by far too small a margin to settle matters.
Cameron's failure to add a threshold was a calamity.
David Cameron's failure wasn't that he didn't require Leave to achieve 53%, or 66.7%, or some other figure bigger than 51.9%, which would have been idiotic and probably caused the mess the country is in by now to be even worse than it is. His failure was that he didn't convince enough people of the merits of staying in the EU. Partly that was because he wasn't fighting against a discredited Labour government that had been in office for 13 years and whose leader had just showed himself as a two-faced b*stard when he expressed his utmost contempt for a working class woman on film, nor was he able to play an "I agree with Nick" move. Mainly it was because no British government had ever bothered to channel propaganda to the Morlocks that painted the EU as an "us". Not many Tory clubs hang pictures of Edward Heath on their walls either. Which doesn't let Cameron off the hook. During his 7 years in office he didn't even try.
If you try to build a political edifice without legitimacy, like a skyscraper without proper foundations, it will fall over at some point
Some, like the Tower of Pisa, might last longer than others (the Tower of Babel) but they will add fall in the end
“Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”
#WillOfThePeople.0 -
Cross out Boris and Raab, who don't have a prayer of reaching the final two, and this looks like good news for Javid.HYUFD said:
Raab is now joint second with Javid on 11% each behind Boris who leads on 24% in the new ConHome Tory members surveyeek said:Given the way the Conservative party elects their leader how on earth is Dominic Raab the current favourite to be next leader (odds 8.6).
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/12/johnson-distrusted-by-conservative-mps-clung-to-by-party-members-he-extends-his-lead-in-our-next-tory-leader-survey.html0 -
The most important issue is now Brexit on 66% followed by healthcare on 32%
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/10701310601372262400 -
I think leadsom just said on the beeb that the full legal advice will be released this morning. OR she said this morning it would be released.alex. said:
Maybe the AG hasn’t actually written down his legal advice yet?NickPalmer said:
From a partisan viewpoint I'm fine with letting the Government extend its contempt for a few days - extends the story. But she may say "tomorrow" which would be accepted without quibble. If she says "Oh, around the 12th" she'll be seen as taking the piss.David_Evershed said:
Andrea Leadsom gave no undertaking to release the full legal advice - only that they would respoind on Wednesday. Bercow and Labour let her off the hook by not following up on the ambiguous reply.NickPalmer said:
No, but they've found another way to annoy people - apparently they may not release the legal guidance tomorrow, merely announce tomorrow that they will comply at a later date.
https://videosift.com/british/video/Yes-Prime-Minister-How-To-Take-Minutes-From-A-Meeting0 -
Which was pretty clear from her reply yesterday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t expect it to add a great deal to the AG’s statement - though Labour will pretend it is a bombshell.
0 -
Ranked choice ie. Alternative vote? Or is this something else?Pulpstar said:
I) They willNigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
2) Ranked choice Deal, No Deal exit, Remain hopefully
AV misleads voters because they are inevitably told “to keep it simple”, that they can vote for their preference without risk/need for tactical voting. When in reality it can make a big difference if the preferred compromise option comes third.
0 -
I’m far more concerned about losing my birthright EU. citizenship. One thing Brexit has demonstrated is how meaningless arguments about “sovereignty” are in today’s inter-connected economy.Mortimer said:
Indeed. Britons who saw their birthrights to sovereignty successfully given away in Maastricht and Lisbon would agree.IanB2 said:
No, rather it is human nature not to fully appreciate the benefits of what you have, until it is gone.Charles said:
Mainly because no one in government wanted to admit to the bait and switch.Notch said:
Some countries set a threshold for turnout, but is there a single country in the world where ANY kind of proposed change being voted on in a referendum, whether constitutional or otherwise, is declared the victor only if it wins by something other than a simple majority?Benpointer said:
Indeed - any constitutional referendum should have a sensible threshold set.rottenborough said:
Bollx.grabcocque said:More good news.
Julia Hitler-Brewer is hecking furious rn https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1070060079716667392
Seems to me the HoC is a fair reflection of a country utterly divided, roughly 50:50 on the EU, with various sub-groups within each portion who disagree on various aspects and nuances.
Yes, Leave won. But by far too small a margin to settle matters.
Cameron's failure to add a threshold was a calamity.
David Cameron's failure wasn't that he didn't require Leave to achieve 53%, or 66.7%, or some other figure bigger than 51.9%, which would have been idiotic and probably caused the mess the country is in by now to be even worse than it is. His failure was that he didn't convince enough people of the merits of staying in the EU. Partly that was because he wasn't fighting against a discredited Labour government that had been in office for 13 years and whose leader had just showed himself as a two-faced b*stard when he expressed his utmost contempt for a working class woman on film, nor was he able to play an "I agree with Nick" move. Mainly it was because no British government had ever bothered to channel propaganda to the Morlocks that painted the EU as an "us". Not many Tory clubs hang pictures of Edward Heath on their walls either. Which doesn't let Cameron off the hook. During his 7 years in office he didn't even try.
If you try to build a political edifice without legitimacy, like a skyscraper without proper foundations, it will fall over at some point
Some, like the Tower of Pisa, might last longer than others (the Tower of Babel) but they will add fall in the end
“Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”
0 -
They don't care. They are seizing the chance for remain while they can.asjohnstone said:
Do "Remainer" MPs form the majority ? 83% of them were elected 18 months ago on a manifestos that promised to leave the EUdaodao said:
I now expect the Remainer MPs, who form the majority, to propose a 2nd referendum, which on the basis of the evidence that you have publicised, will lead to the cancellation of Brexit.Scott_P said:0 -
Number 10 will pretend it is a bombshell and it has not wasted the past week fighting over nothing.Nigelb said:
Which was pretty clear from her reply yesterday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t expect it to add a great deal to the AG’s statement - though Labour will pretend it is a bombshell.0 -
After the last one there is no way Parliament will allow no deal to go to a vote.Pulpstar said:
I) They willNigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
2) Ranked choice Deal, No Deal exit, Remain hopefully0 -
Corbyn wouldn’t be able to meet his own six tests.rkrkrk said:
A Tory landslide would give May the votes to get her deal through.Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
A Tory majority might give her the votes to screw Northern Ireland and develop a new deal.
A Labour win and Corbyn would I suspect easily get the votes to pass whatever deal he came up with, if he agreed to a second referendum on his deal.
And any sort of decisive May win sounds pretty fantastical in the circumstances.
I note you don’t envisage a hung parliament - which would be a distinct possibility.
0 -
Given that the assumed “killer” information is that the U.K. will potentially be trapped in a customs union, won’t Labour have to explain why their policy - the U.K. actually being “trapped” in a customs union, is such a great improvement?Nigelb said:
Which was pretty clear from her reply yesterday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t expect it to add a great deal to the AG’s statement - though Labour will pretend it is a bombshell.
Of course not, silly me.
0 -
Clearly a very high turnout for a midterm and well done into those who did predict it would hit 50% if confirmed.Alistair said:
However even then the 2018 midterm elections would still have had a lower turnout than every post-war presidential and general election bar 19960 -
But without it as an option, any referendum would not achieve the consent of the electorate. It must be defeated, not elided as a possibility.IanB2 said:
After the last one there is no way Parliament will allow no deal to go to a vote.Pulpstar said:
I) They willNigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
2) Ranked choice Deal, No Deal exit, Remain hopefully
0 -
Sorry you optimists out there, there was never a shift in momentum. Mps are still moving against it too. Now that really is embarrassing.TheScreamingEagles said:Support for Theresa May’s Brexit deal has faded since its high watermark last week. Now 23 per cent say that they support it, down from 27 per cent last Thursday, while 46 per cent oppose it, up from 45 per cent.
Can they cut the 5 days short? Sure it's an important debate but more time before Xmas to try other options might be better than wasting time on an agreement deader than a bill to reintroduce slavery.0 -
Perhaps the Govt will release 3 contradictory pieces of legal “advice”? 0
-
He is not a Moggite - just an unprincipled ally of convenience.logical_song said:
0 -
Anything brought forward by the opposition wouldn't have passed.Nigelb said:
Grieve deserves considerable credit for his amendment.timmo said:
The Govt isnt in control any more...NickPalmer said:
A small problem is that it's subject to Parliamentary consent. I think there might be a little revolt about that. And to be fair the problem in Parliament is not that they're short of time to reflect - they've had two years. The problem is that they've reflected and come up with irreoncilable views.Sandpit said:
Conservative whips have already been ‘suggesting’ to MPs that if the deal passes they’ll get to see their families for Christmas.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
The suggestion of course being that if it doesn’t pass there isn’t going to be a recess due to the impasse. I’m all for having the Commons sit from 8am until midnight every day until they can agree on a way forward.
It is notable the the official opposition were unable to come up with anything so effective..0 -
I agree, I think a GE would be best if this deal can't pass.rottenborough said:
We don't know what a GE would throw up. But that is part of the system. It is up to the collective of the people what the makeup of the Commons becomes next.rkrkrk said:
A Tory landslide would give May the votes to get her deal through.Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
A Tory majority might give her the votes to screw Northern Ireland and develop a new deal.
A Labour win and Corbyn would I suspect easily get the votes to pass whatever deal he came up with, if he agreed to a second referendum on his deal.
Seems to me at this point this would be less divisive than another referendum.
Worth trying first? After an A50 extension of say 6 months.0 -
I assumed the 4 days was to allow one day to debate the deal and four to prove there is no passable alternative.kle4 said:
Sorry you optimists out there, there was never a shift in momentum. Mps are still moving against it too. Now that really is embarrassing.TheScreamingEagles said:Support for Theresa May’s Brexit deal has faded since its high watermark last week. Now 23 per cent say that they support it, down from 27 per cent last Thursday, while 46 per cent oppose it, up from 45 per cent.
Can they cut the 5 days short? Sure it's an important debate but more time before Xmas to try other options might be better than wasting time on an agreement deader than a bill to reintroduce slavery.
0 -
She might be beyond then- might take a few days to figure out who the interim pm should be, and she has to give a name to the queen.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1070225313194487808
Until next Wed that is then...
She should say Jeremy Corbyn. Ask him to sort it out.0 -
Much as I would like us to remain, and also hit my prediction from day one that in fact we will not leave after all, I now fear the social unrest of a 2nd vote is a very high price.rkrkrk said:
I agree, I think a GE would be best if this deal can't pass.rottenborough said:
We don't know what a GE would throw up. But that is part of the system. It is up to the collective of the people what the makeup of the Commons becomes next.rkrkrk said:
A Tory landslide would give May the votes to get her deal through.Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
A Tory majority might give her the votes to screw Northern Ireland and develop a new deal.
A Labour win and Corbyn would I suspect easily get the votes to pass whatever deal he came up with, if he agreed to a second referendum on his deal.
Seems to me at this point this would be less divisive than another referendum.
Worth trying first? After an A50 extension of say 6 months.
Try a GE first?0 -
If it's a hung parliament, then yes we are back where we started.Nigelb said:
Corbyn wouldn’t be able to meet his own six tests.rkrkrk said:
A Tory landslide would give May the votes to get her deal through.Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
A Tory majority might give her the votes to screw Northern Ireland and develop a new deal.
A Labour win and Corbyn would I suspect easily get the votes to pass whatever deal he came up with, if he agreed to a second referendum on his deal.
And any sort of decisive May win sounds pretty fantastical in the circumstances.
I note you don’t envisage a hung parliament - which would be a distinct possibility.
I don't think a May win is all that fantastical, particularly if she successfully makes the case that her deal is ending freedom of movement.
As for Corbyn, he'd simply say he did the best he could, and if people didn't like his deal, well they could vote for remain.0 -
The remainers disagree. The goal is all that matters.Nigelb said:
But without it as an option, any referendum would not achieve the consent of the electorate. It must be defeated, not elided as a possibility.IanB2 said:
After the last one there is no way Parliament will allow no deal to go to a vote.Pulpstar said:
I) They willNigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
2) Ranked choice Deal, No Deal exit, Remain hopefully0 -
According to Laura Kuenssberg yesterday there is a majority in Parliament for Single Market and Customs Union Brexit but not for EUref2 as it stands, to get a majority for the latter it would likely need to be a 3 way Remain, Deal, No Deal referendumkle4 said:
Yep. Very good timing from the advocate general too. Continuity remainers would be silly to give up now and even if nearly all the ERG backed the deal some more remainers are needed.anothernick said:
Yes I think this is now the most likely outcome.daodao said:
I now expect the Remainer MPs, who form the majority, to propose a 2nd referendum, which on the basis of the evidence that you have publicised, will lead to the cancellation of Brexit.Scott_P said:
There is no Commons majoritynfor any exit deal, "Norway" included, and no deal is not an option.
So a second referendum it will be and Article 50 will be revoked.
How long before labour back remain? They aren't going to take no stance in a referendum as 90% of them will campaign for remain.0 -
It has spent the latter end of the week fighting over the principle of not releasing advice, rather than the advice itself - which Cox described in what was for the government uncomfortable detail.DecrepitJohnL said:
Number 10 will pretend it is a bombshell and it has not wasted the past week fighting over nothing.Nigelb said:
Which was pretty clear from her reply yesterday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t expect it to add a great deal to the AG’s statement - though Labour will pretend it is a bombshell.
And setting the advice itself aside, it is an important principle - though overridden by parliamentary sovereignty.
0 -
Quite. And many millions will agree with you. Extremists like Mortimer who were born with a Union Jack stuck up their backsides are dying out. He is a young fogey, but there aren’t many of them.not_on_fire said:
I’m far more concerned about losing my birthright EU. citizenship. One thing Brexit has demonstrated is how meaningless arguments about “sovereignty” are in today’s inter-connected economy.Mortimer said:
Indeed. Britons who saw their birthrights to sovereignty successfully given away in Maastricht and Lisbon would agree.IanB2 said:
No, rather it is human nature not to fully appreciate the benefits of what you have, until it is gone.Charles said:
Mainly because no one in government wanted to admit to the bait and switch.Notch said:
their walls either. Which doesn't let Cameron off the hook. During his 7 years in office he didn't even try.Benpointer said:
Indeed - any constitutional referendum should have a sensible threshold set.rottenborough said:
Bollx.grabcocque said:More good news.
Julia Hitler-Brewer is hecking furious rn https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1070060079716667392
Seems to me the HoC is a fair reflection of a country utterly divided, roughly 50:50 on the EU, with various sub-groups within each portion who disagree on various aspects and nuances.
Yes, Leave won. But by far too small a margin to settle matters.
Cameron's failure to add a threshold was a calamity.
If you try to build a political edifice without legitimacy, like a skyscraper without proper foundations, it will fall over at some point
Some, like the Tower of Pisa, might last longer than others (the Tower of Babel) but they will add fall in the end
“Look on my works, ye mighty, and despair!”
0 -
I am a remainer.kle4 said:
The remainers disagree. The goal is all that matters.Nigelb said:
But without it as an option, any referendum would not achieve the consent of the electorate. It must be defeated, not elided as a possibility.IanB2 said:
After the last one there is no way Parliament will allow no deal to go to a vote.Pulpstar said:
I) They willNigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
2) Ranked choice Deal, No Deal exit, Remain hopefully
0 -
No majority for a referendum then and if not May's Deal Single Market and Customs Union BINO is the likely outcomeIanB2 said:
After the last one there is no way Parliament will allow no deal to go to a vote.Pulpstar said:
I) They willNigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
2) Ranked choice Deal, No Deal exit, Remain hopefully0 -
Given the way we run alternative vote systems with the least popular option being removed before the next round there is a strong risk that any multiple choice vote would tend towards the extreme options as the more moderate compromise options would be removed in the earlier rounds.Nigelb said:
But without it as an option, any referendum would not achieve the consent of the electorate. It must be defeated, not elided as a possibility.IanB2 said:
After the last one there is no way Parliament will allow no deal to go to a vote.Pulpstar said:
I) They willNigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
2) Ranked choice Deal, No Deal exit, Remain hopefully
Now were the election to use a Bucklin type method....0 -
Liddington would pay out nicely for me.kle4 said:
She might be beyond then- might take a few days to figure out who the interim pm should be, and she has to give a name to the queen.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1070225313194487808
Until next Wed that is then...
She should say Jeremy Corbyn. Ask him to sort it out.
Hague even bigger.
0 -
He's a smart man. But he's still an ultra who cares only about his extremist ideal at whatever cost and who will ignore any problems with his goals because of a belief in his own moral right. He's the ERG with more brains and a smidge more judgement in when to make a play, but if they are to be criticised for idealist obsession he must face the same charge.Nigelb said:
Grieve deserves considerable credit for his amendment.timmo said:
The Govt isnt in control any more...NickPalmer said:
A small problem is that it's subject to Parliamentary consent. I think there might be a little revolt about that. And to be fair the problem in Parliament is not that they're short of time to reflect - they've had two years. The problem is that they've reflected and come up with irreoncilable views.Sandpit said:
Conservative whips have already been ‘suggesting’ to MPs that if the deal passes they’ll get to see their families for Christmas.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
The suggestion of course being that if it doesn’t pass there isn’t going to be a recess due to the impasse. I’m all for having the Commons sit from 8am until midnight every day until they can agree on a way forward.
It is notable the the official opposition were unable to come up with anything so effective..0 -
Single market and customs union Brexit requires passing the deal. It is something that can only come about via the trade negotiations - ie. at best is a matter for the (non binding) political declaration.HYUFD said:
According to Laura Kuenssberg yesterday there is a majority in Parliament for Single Market and Customs Union Brexit but not for EUref2 as it stands, to get a majority for the latter it would likely need to be a 3 way Remain, Deal, No Deal referendumkle4 said:
Yep. Very good timing from the advocate general too. Continuity remainers would be silly to give up now and even if nearly all the ERG backed the deal some more remainers are needed.anothernick said:
Yes I think this is now the most likely outcome.daodao said:
I now expect the Remainer MPs, who form the majority, to propose a 2nd referendum, which on the basis of the evidence that you have publicised, will lead to the cancellation of Brexit.Scott_P said:
There is no Commons majoritynfor any exit deal, "Norway" included, and no deal is not an option.
So a second referendum it will be and Article 50 will be revoked.
How long before labour back remain? They aren't going to take no stance in a referendum as 90% of them will campaign for remain.
And it would require seriously hard negotiation to get there - the EU aren’t going to offer up permanent Single market access on a plate.0 -
In this context I mean the parliamentary continuity remainers. Obviously there's nuance out in the real world. I back a referendum though I'm a leaver and disagree with the motivations of the peoplesvote campaign.Nigelb said:
I am a remainer.kle4 said:
The remainers disagree. The goal is all that matters.Nigelb said:
But without it as an option, any referendum would not achieve the consent of the electorate. It must be defeated, not elided as a possibility.IanB2 said:
After the last one there is no way Parliament will allow no deal to go to a vote.Pulpstar said:
I) They willNigelb said:
They might (or might not).Pulpstar said:
EU extend Art 50 for a significant event (GE or 3rd referendum)Nigelb said:
A point I made below - though no one has yet explained how agreement on the terms of such a vote might be reached (or indeed how it might be implemented in the time remaining).Foxy said:
It wouldn't, but a #peoplesvote might.Nigelb said:
But how would a GE solve the current impasse ?rottenborough said:
Yes, but GE are seen as safety valves in our system (how ever imperfect). Look at 1909/10 and the People's Budget stuff.IanB2 said:
The politicians are in a room and can't come out until they sort out a way forward. That isn't such a bad place to put them.rottenborough said:Morning all,
The Fixed Term Parliament Act is looking more stupid than ever today.
For the majority of them in safe seats, an election is of no consequence other than delay, anyhow, and for the majority of voters in safe seats an election offers them next to nothing.
And what about the referendum terms ?
2) Ranked choice Deal, No Deal exit, Remain hopefully0 -
Hmm. Odds changed a bit yesterday on the 11 December vote being approved, now it's reverted to normal (1.14 on it failing, 5 on it passing). Other odds unchanged.
Mr. kle4, People's Vote is a gloriously condescending slogan, not to mention being unwittingly Soviet.0 -
Agreed, MPs may well end up in the absurd situation where they reject May's Deal but end up having to cave in even more to the EU to get a new Deal as a result most likely with full free movement being the EU's price.alex. said:
Single market and customs union Brexit requires passing the deal. It is something that can only come about via the trade negotiations - ie. at best is a matter for the (non binding) political declaration.HYUFD said:
According to Laura Kuenssberg yesterday there is a majority in Parliament for Single Market and Customs Union Brexit but not for EUref2 as it stands, to get a majority for the latter it would likely need to be a 3 way Remain, Deal, No Deal referendumkle4 said:
Yep. Very good timing from the advocate general too. Continuity remainers would be silly to give up now and even if nearly all the ERG backed the deal some more remainers are needed.anothernick said:
Yes I think this is now the most likely outcome.daodao said:
I now expect the Remainer MPs, who form the majority, to propose a 2nd referendum, which on the basis of the evidence that you have publicised, will lead to the cancellation of Brexit.Scott_P said:
There is no Commons majoritynfor any exit deal, "Norway" included, and no deal is not an option.
So a second referendum it will be and Article 50 will be revoked.
How long before labour back remain? They aren't going to take no stance in a referendum as 90% of them will campaign for remain.
And it would require seriously hard negotiation to get there - the EU aren’t going to offer up permanent Single market access on a plate.
Then wait for the furious backlash from working class Leavers so far relatively muted over May's Deal and a surge in support for UKIP or a new Farage/Bannon party0 -
Things are only moving in one direction. Remainers in parliament are too close to not go for it. Worst case for them now the deal wins against remain since they wont allow no deal. And the deal is worth risking to get full remain.HYUFD said:
According to Laura Kuenssberg yesterday there is a majority in Parliament for Single Market and Customs Union Brexit but not for EUref2 as it stands, to get a majority for the latter it would likely need to be a 3 way Remain, Deal, No Deal referendumkle4 said:
Yep. Very good timing from the advocate general too. Continuity remainers would be silly to give up now and even if nearly all the ERG backed the deal some more remainers are needed.anothernick said:
Yes I think this is now the most likely outcome.daodao said:
I now expect the Remainer MPs, who form the majority, to propose a 2nd referendum, which on the basis of the evidence that you have publicised, will lead to the cancellation of Brexit.Scott_P said:
There is no Commons majoritynfor any exit deal, "Norway" included, and no deal is not an option.
So a second referendum it will be and Article 50 will be revoked.
How long before labour back remain? They aren't going to take no stance in a referendum as 90% of them will campaign for remain.0 -
David Lidington following Theresa May would be worth £10k to me. I’m not holding my breath.rottenborough said:
Liddington would pay out nicely for me.kle4 said:
She might be beyond then- might take a few days to figure out who the interim pm should be, and she has to give a name to the queen.rottenborough said:https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1070225313194487808
Until next Wed that is then...
She should say Jeremy Corbyn. Ask him to sort it out.
Hague even bigger.0 -
I prefer to call it the dishonest name campaign but wanted to be clear who I meant.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Odds changed a bit yesterday on the 11 December vote being approved, now it's reverted to normal (1.14 on it failing, 5 on it passing). Other odds unchanged.
Mr. kle4, People's Vote is a gloriously condescending slogan, not to mention being unwittingly Soviet.0 -
And they shall call it a triumph.HYUFD said:
Agreed, MPs may well end up in the absurd situation where they reject May's Deal but end up having to cave in even more to the EU to get a new Deal as a resultalex. said:
Single market and customs union Brexit requires passing the deal. It is something that can only come about via the trade negotiations - ie. at best is a matter for the (non binding) political declaration.HYUFD said:
According to Laura Kuenssberg yesterday there is a majority in Parliament for Single Market and Customs Union Brexit but not for EUref2 as it stands, to get a majority for the latter it would likely need to be a 3 way Remain, Deal, No Deal referendumkle4 said:
Yep. Very good timing from the advocate general too. Continuity remainers would be silly to give up now and even if nearly all the ERG backed the deal some more remainers are needed.anothernick said:
Yes I think this is now the most likely outcome.daodao said:
I now expect the Remainer MPs, who form the majority, to propose a 2nd referendum, which on the basis of the evidence that you have publicised, will lead to the cancellation of Brexit.Scott_P said:
There is no Commons majoritynfor any exit deal, "Norway" included, and no deal is not an option.
So a second referendum it will be and Article 50 will be revoked.
How long before labour back remain? They aren't going to take no stance in a referendum as 90% of them will campaign for remain.
And it would require seriously hard negotiation to get there - the EU aren’t going to offer up permanent Single market access on a plate.0 -
Showing your historical ignorance once again.Morris_Dancer said:Hmm. Odds changed a bit yesterday on the 11 December vote being approved, now it's reverted to normal (1.14 on it failing, 5 on it passing). Other odds unchanged.
Mr. kle4, People's Vote is a gloriously condescending slogan, not to mention being unwittingly Soviet.
IIRC it is named in part after this country’s People’s Budget of 1909/1910.
I mean the CCCP didn’t exist in 1909.0 -
Things looking bad out there in hospital land. Full on bed crisis, overflowing casualty and financial crisis.HYUFD said:The most important issue is now Brexit on 66% followed by healthcare on 32%
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1070131060137226240
https://www.rcem.ac.uk/RCEM/News/News_2018/Four_out_of_five_Emergency_Medicine_doctors_believe_emergency_care_is_getting_worse.aspx
But Brexit, Brexit, Brexit, Nothing but repeats, and a distraction from the real issues in the country.
0 -
Mortimer is young? I always assumed he was about 87 from his output on here.Anazina said:
Quite. And many millions will agree with you. Extremists like Mortimer who were born with a Union Jack stuck up their backsides are dying out. He is a young fogey, but there aren’t many of them.0 -
YouGov
Wrong to leave 49
Right to leave 38
Support for Brexit at its lowest since the vote .0 -
Interesting Mark Stone of Sky reports there is no chance that the deal will be changed but the EU will pivot to Norway which of course includes free movement
Nicky Morgan on radio 5 live this morning says she will vote for TM deal but if it falls she will back Norway but opposes a second referendum
The direction of travel is Norway0 -
Is that a new you gov ?nico67 said:YouGov
Wrong to leave 49
Right to leave 38
Support for Brexit at its lowest since the vote .0 -
Mr. Eagles, the swastika was used through history, perhaps most notably by Hindus, but appropriated by the Nazis. If I had a swastika banner, do you think people would associate that with me being a Hindu [for the record, I'm not], or being a Nazi?
Likewise, People's X, Y and Z sounds far more Soviet than it does a 1909-10 Budget.
Or, for that matter, Hitler getting cultural dominance of the toothbrush moustache, when Chaplin had it first.0 -
Not everyone is as historically ignorant as you.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, the swastika was used through history, perhaps most notably by Hindus, but appropriated by the Nazis. If I had a swastika banner, do you think people would associate that with me being a Hindu [for the record, I'm not], or being a Nazi?
Likewise, People's X, Y and Z sounds far more Soviet than it does a 1909-10 Budget.
Or, for that matter, Hitler getting cultural dominance of the toothbrush moustache, when Chaplin had it first.0 -
We're fine with being in a custgoms union. We're fine with the Irish situation remaining as it is now. It is ONLY the ultra-Brexiteers who dislike it, because they believe there are great trade deals to be had outside. Many of us actively dislike the idea of a US trade deal, with the almost inevitable decline in food standards that would be necessary to get it agreed.alex. said:
Given that the assumed “killer” information is that the U.K. will potentially be trapped in a customs union, won’t Labour have to explain why their policy - the U.K. actually being “trapped” in a customs union, is such a great improvement?Nigelb said:
Which was pretty clear from her reply yesterday.TheScreamingEagles said:
I don’t expect it to add a great deal to the AG’s statement - though Labour will pretend it is a bombshell.
Of course not, silly me.0
This discussion has been closed.