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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a huge political day the main Brexit linked betting changes
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a huge political day the main Brexit linked betting changes
Charts once again based on latest trades on the Betfair exchange shown as a percentage probability and derived from Betdat.io
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Although as a social liberal, I'm not quite sure what I think of Nigel Farage taking over at my spiritual home.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
If there is not a GE next year I will be very happy, if slightly poorer.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
Oh not this rubbish again!
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.
Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.
Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-royston-smith-is-least-active-among-parliaments-new-members-a6886761.html
Boris and the ERG are trying to win 7 nil but risk losing 4 - 3.
Sir Peter Bottomley (and other Tory MPs): So what are these alternatives?
Boris: *Tumbleweeds*
I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.
And I'm only quoting Ian as he is saving me from watching it.
https://twitter.com/AltCyberCommand/status/1070040597044453378
Traditionally the move to the right with age was due to economic issues, job progression, income, homeownership, children. That may well not be the case anymore, and conceivably the economic issues could push people towards Remain.
The only way to be sure is to pull back and have a #peoplesvote, viewed from orbit.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
That is collapsing as we watch. Power is sometimes psychological as well as shear numbers.
You might not care to admit it but demographics will undoubtedly help Remain if there is a second vote. Deaths will have come overwhelmingly from the most Brexit demographic and youngsters joining the register are likely to be overwhelmingly remain. I'm not sure how you can seriously argue otherwise.
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1070046029981081600
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
The people tried to do it with Brexit but that decision is in the process of being overturned.
The only thing left to bring the establishment to their knees is a Corbyn government...
More like an exhausted warning than a clarion call to his ERG fellows.
What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.
There must be great inertia in modern society.
I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.
They just sat back and enjoyed the blue on blue tones.
At this stage, we just don’t know who the victors will be.
' Investment into the UK from foreign companies rose to the highest level ever recorded last year as investors shrug off Brexit worries.
The value of the UK’s foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks in 2017 was £1,336.5bn, a rise of £149.2bn since 2016, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The total, which is a record high, was boosted by a 321 per cent growth in investments from India.
Outward investment also increased by £38.7bn to £1,313.3bn over the period. Earnings from these investments enjoyed considerable growth, reversing the negative trend seen in recent years. '
http://www.cityam.com/270147/uk-foreign-investment-hits-record-high-investors-shun
Are we building up to another Norway Debate for the 21st Century?
It has the potential to shape the coming century for Britain.
If May goes you likely get Boris. The only way to stop that is a Javid or Hunt coronation and the ERG would not allow that
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
1) Obviously it's not binding on the CJEU, but...
2) Nobody really expected any sensible court to declare that a notice given under a treaty would be revocable unilaterally (if conditionally) where the treaty was silent on revocation;
3) But I had it at evens (betting market size £0) that the CJEU would so declare. If you didn't, you weren't paying attention in your EU law classes. Costa v ENEL (1964), Commission v France, (1997) Council v Commission, Factortame; it's all been going one way since 1964 - more power to the ECJ/CJEU, more power to the Commission, bad luck if you're a member state.
4) And the emphasis was on "(if conditionally)". The AG says that, a purported revocation of A50 would be binding on the Council if it were not an abusive practice, and not binding if it were abusive.
5) The decision, therefore, is now not the UK's. It is the ECJ's.
6) And the decision itself if a pretty poor piece of jurisprudence. It makes French judgments look good. The AG said that:
6.1) if A50 notice is unilateral, it is 'logical' that revocation is unilateral. Obviously, that's nonsense. There's no such logical step and a moment's thought will confirm this.
6.2) the Vienna Convention on treaties is a precedent, but the EU isn't a party and the TEU expressly excludes international law such as this. I could go on but I won't as I'm losing interest myself.
7) The Commission (once) and the EU parliament (at least thrice) have made their view clear that A50 isn't revocable. The deal is finalised, the balance of interests shifts, and all of a sudden the AG of the CJEU says the opposite; it is revocable. I'm sure it's just a coincidence, of course. The CJEU wouldn't be making decisions primarily in the interests of the EU institutions against the interests of Member States, would it?
Anyway, look forward to reading the other AG's full Brexit advice tomorrow...