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Since deep down I think he is a remainer, were not adopting a contrary stance so much to his apparent personal advantage (at least until that moment when he was photographed having just won the vote), there was a time when I thought you were right, and saw that as a possible solution. But he is now so discredited that I am not sure any sensible remainer would want him on board.kle4 said:
Months and months ago I, and others I am sure, speculated that if any top Brexiteer was to flip back to remain and kind of make it work, it would be Boris. His words there are once again so anti the deal, or any similar deal, that remaining seems very viable.Scott_P said:0 -
In the Conservative Party maybe... But what would his future be in a new Farage Party?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
They were spotted having dinner together a few weeks back...
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Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over0 -
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.HYUFD said:
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.numbertwelve said:
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.0 -
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hourHYUFD said:
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlashrottenborough said:
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:0 -
In the Rodeo of British Politics Boris chose Bull Riding - High risk, maximum gain.. Got thrown off and ground in to the dust. Should have stuck to Team Roping!0
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Thanks.DecrepitJohnL said:
Lidington is 100/1 with Betfred.rottenborough said:
Liddington is 65 on BFeek said:
Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...kle4 said:
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
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I honestly don't think there will be one; people have had enough and if things settle down after a BINO type deal, no-one will be willing to hear much more from the Brexit hardnuts, whose reputations and credibility are mostly shot. Their only chance of any sort of backlash is if we remain.HYUFD said:
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlashrottenborough said:
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:0 -
They are welcome to him. The sooner he decides to go the betterGIN1138 said:
In the Conservative Party maybe... But what would his future be in a new Farage Party?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
They were spotted having dinner together a few weeks back...0 -
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over0 -
I think Farage is planning to lead the backlash. At least he can say he had absolutely naught to do with it all.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hourHYUFD said:
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlashrottenborough said:
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:
Boris was iirc the Foreign Sec during most of this mess.0 -
Not within the EEA or EU it isn't. Cameron would have tried it if he could. These were fantastical legal claims by people trying to get us to stay in the EU.El_Capitano said:
FOM is potentially fixable, FSVO "fixable", along the lines of the IPPR's proposals: https://www.ippr.org/files/publications/pdf/free-movement-welfare_Nov2015.pdfNickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
If the political elite turn around and tell the working class that unlimited immigration is back to stay, the backlash will be bigger than almost all of them are expecting. "Your vote doesn't count. We will keep asking until you are defeated" is an explosive position. MPs are playing with fire.0 -
I agree he looked defeated. Exhausted and lacking the zest.Novo said:Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
His hero would say KBO.
Will Boris?0 -
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Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.IanB2 said:
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.HYUFD said:
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.numbertwelve said:
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.0 -
Huge risk. I presume in between studying Greek and Sumerian, Boris had a glance at the workings of FPTP?GIN1138 said:
In the Conservative Party maybe... But what would his future be in a new Farage Party?Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
They were spotted having dinner together a few weeks back...0 -
We all need a bit of light relief. That made me laughScott_P said:0 -
Next election will be next year and Britain will not leave the EU. Corbyn will be PM, the Tory Party will be decimated, businesses will flee the U.K. and we’ll regret we ever stuck with May for so long or defied the referendum result.0
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That's why we need something bigger than the traditional Nation State. With some form of democratic management.another_richard said:So lots of fun on PB today I assume
What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.
There must be great inertia in modern society.
I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.
The Roman Empire had become concentrated on its own small centre.0 -
On the one hand we live in a time of zombie politics. No argument is ever truly dead, or incapable of being resurrected by a sufficiently charismatic leader. If people are looking for a grievance then they would have a whopper to latch onto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hourHYUFD said:
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlashrottenborough said:
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:
On the other hand, I'm reminded of the salience of the EU in the Mori Issues polling over the years, and if it was settled, and no longer a source of uncertainty then, provided immigration from the EU did not surge again I could see it being forgotten.0 -
Theresa May is speaking for the 52%. She has won back control of immigration, UK courts supreme over British law again and the ability to go and ended vast billions being sent to Brussels each year.GIN1138 said:
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.IanB2 said:
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.HYUFD said:
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.numbertwelve said:
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.0 -
Win and he would lose several defections and any chance of governingAmpfieldAndy said:
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
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Just a thought...but:
Did May instruct some of her supposed loyal types to support Grieve?
i.e. I want Parliament to take the next step?0 -
What will the annual contribution for the future relationship be? You have no way of knowing so it's completely misleading to say we will stop sending billions to Brussels each year.Theo said:
Theresa May is speaking for the 52%. She has won back control of immigration, UK courts supreme over British law again and the ability to go and ended vast billions being sent to Brussels each year.GIN1138 said:
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.IanB2 said:
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.HYUFD said:
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.numbertwelve said:
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.0 -
All roads to Brexit (other than no deal) still lead through the Withdrawal agreement. That is one of the things so ridiculous about all the current debate about "Norway" etc. We aren't going to have "Norway" from 1st April next year. We would have two years of effective continued EU membership during the transition period, followed by Norway afterwards - as the solution negotiated through the trade deal.
May's deal doesn't rule out a Norway solution, but a Norway solution requires the withdrawal agreement. Realistically anybody opposing the Withdrawal agreement can only be in favour of Remain or No deal as an alternative. Various stripes of alternative Brexits, still lead through the transition period that requires the Withdrawal Agreement.0 -
Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days0
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Please don't let a tiny thing like facts get in the way of the remainiacs doom porn.another_richard said:Remember how earlier this year some people tried to claim that foreign investment in the UK had collapsed ?
' Investment into the UK from foreign companies rose to the highest level ever recorded last year as investors shrug off Brexit worries.
The value of the UK’s foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks in 2017 was £1,336.5bn, a rise of £149.2bn since 2016, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The total, which is a record high, was boosted by a 321 per cent growth in investments from India.
Outward investment also increased by £38.7bn to £1,313.3bn over the period. Earnings from these investments enjoyed considerable growth, reversing the negative trend seen in recent years. '
http://www.cityam.com/270147/uk-foreign-investment-hits-record-high-investors-shun
Also see
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-04/mervyn-king-says-may-s-brexit-deal-is-a-betrayal
"Before the referendum, official economic projections intended to scare the country into voting Remain didn’t succeed. Based on flimsy and arbitrary assumptions, they were subsequently proved wrong. The same strategy has resurfaced.
It saddens me to see the Bank of England unnecessarily drawn into this project. The Bank’s latest worst-case scenario shows the cost of leaving without a deal exceeding 10 percent of GDP. Two factors are responsible for the size of this effect: first, the assertion that productivity will fall because of lower trade; second, the assumption that disruption at borders — queues of lorries and interminable customs checks — will continue year after year. Neither is plausible. On this I concur with Paul Krugman. He’s no friend of Brexit and believes that Britain would be better off inside the EU — but on the claim of lower productivity, he describes the Bank’s estimates as “black box numbers” that are “dubious” and “questionable.” And on the claim of semi-permanent dislocation, he just says, “Really?” I agree: The British civil service may not be perfect, but it surely isn’t as bad as that. "0 -
You are living in a dreamland if you think a hundred thousand unskilled workers coming to the UK every year with no limits on it will be forgotten. Especially if people who had long felt disenfranchised by politics finally got to have a say on it and then their victory got overturned. Remain won't put the fire out. It will throw gasoline on it.OblitusSumMe said:
On the one hand we live in a time of zombie politics. No argument is ever truly dead, or incapable of being resurrected by a sufficiently charismatic leader. If people are looking for a grievance then they would have a whopper to latch onto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hourHYUFD said:
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlashrottenborough said:
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:
On the other hand, I'm reminded of the salience of the EU in the Mori Issues polling over the years, and if it was settled, and no longer a source of uncertainty then, provided immigration from the EU did not surge again I could see it being forgotten.0 -
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Excuse me. When did I say I would not support a leaver. Not an ERG member but there are many euro sceptics in the partyAmpfieldAndy said:
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
The party will hold together, painfully maybe, butnCorbyn unites the whole party to keep him out0 -
Evening David. I mean Andy, sorry.AmpfieldAndy said:Next election will be next year and Britain will not leave the EU. Corbyn will be PM, the Tory Party will be decimated, businesses will flee the U.K. and we’ll regret we ever stuck with May for so long or defied the referendum result.
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I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".HYUFD said:
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or notkle4 said:
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
Hmm no, the SNP aren't liars - they're straight up about remaining. Many on the Labour side are being deeply duplicitous.Theo said:0 -
That's just crap, though, isn't it? There is no 52%. There is a small number of libertarian Brexit fanatics on the right. There is a larger number of people strongly opposed to the EU largely because of open borders and immigration. Then there is a larger still number of people who don't, and never did, care that much about Europe either way but chose to vote Leave on balance for a variety of reasons of which funding for the NHS figures highly (just as there are a mass of Remain voters who aren't strongly pro-EU).GIN1138 said:
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.IanB2 said:
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.HYUFD said:
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.numbertwelve said:
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.
There is no political market of any size for the first group (which is why they have always tried to hijack the Tory Party from within). The third group don't care enough. Whether or not the second group might back some sort of new Banks/Farage type enterprise is indeed an open question, but (as with much of UKIPs support) they would draw support from across the political spectrum.0 -
As things stand, nothing. If it is anything near the current amount we turn it down and seek trade elsewhere. It's not like the EU can shut the borders on us.williamglenn said:
What will the annual contribution for the future relationship be? You have no way of knowing so it's completely misleading to say we will stop sending billions to Brussels each year.Theo said:
Theresa May is speaking for the 52%. She has won back control of immigration, UK courts supreme over British law again and the ability to go and ended vast billions being sent to Brussels each year.GIN1138 said:
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.IanB2 said:
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.HYUFD said:
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.numbertwelve said:
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.0 -
6 on BFEx on the Deal passing at present, and an interesting new market on the number of Ayes.Scott_P said:
The Headbangers are indeed a bit dim, but I also reckon that they will funk it.
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Worth adding the responseTheScreamingEagles said:A traitorous rat speaks.
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1070050668243771392
https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/10700512311110164490 -
The polling evidence would suggest that more leavers are switching to remain than the other way around. However the point of the demographic argument is that the leave majority has all but disappeared even if nobody else has changed their minds.initforthemoney said:
The whole electorate has had two more years to watch the EU in action. Some who previously voted remain will no doubt have misgivings about its behaviour.OllyT said:
Generally I would be inclined to agree but not over such a short time scale. People might become more conservative over decades as they get older but I doubt anyone has suddenly become more Brexity because they are 2 years older.GIN1138 said:FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)
Oh not this rubbish again!Novo said:None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
You might not care to admit it but demographics will undoubtedly help Remain if there is a second vote. Deaths will have come overwhelmingly from the most Brexit demographic and youngsters joining the register are likely to be overwhelmingly remain. I'm not sure how you can seriously argue otherwise.0 -
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.tottenhamWC said:Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
0 -
It's interesting, though, isn't it?rottenborough said:Huge risk. I presume in between studying Greek and Sumerian, Boris had a glance at the workings of FPTP?
Thus far the cast-iron argument against a new centrist party has been that it's doomed under FPTP, as SDP Mark 1 was. Because if the Radicals or the Democrats or the Together Mix take 30% of the vote, most of that is off Labour and so the Tories live to fight another day.
But what if there's a new right-wing party as well? Farage+Boris vs May+Hammond vs Chuka+Soubry+Vince vs Corbyn+McDonnell. You potentially have four parties roughly scrapping around the 20-30% mark.
Uncharted waters. Obviously it'll never happen. But "obviously" doesn't work so well on a day where the Government has lost three votes in a row.0 -
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1070041963561476101Foxy said:0 -
I did mention immigration quite specifically as a potential stumbling block.Theo said:
You are living in a dreamland if you think a hundred thousand unskilled workers coming to the UK every year with no limits on it will be forgotten. Especially if people who had long felt disenfranchised by politics finally got to have a say on it and then their victory got overturned. Remain won't put the fire out. It will throw gasoline on it.OblitusSumMe said:
On the one hand we live in a time of zombie politics. No argument is ever truly dead, or incapable of being resurrected by a sufficiently charismatic leader. If people are looking for a grievance then they would have a whopper to latch onto.Big_G_NorthWales said:
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hourHYUFD said:
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlashrottenborough said:
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:
On the other hand, I'm reminded of the salience of the EU in the Mori Issues polling over the years, and if it was settled, and no longer a source of uncertainty then, provided immigration from the EU did not surge again I could see it being forgotten.
I don't know what level of immigration from the EU would be high enough to cause political problems. Maybe 100,000 a year would be enough. I don't make a judgement on it. What I say is that it might be the only thing that would be able to keep the issue alive. Without it the importance of the issue disappears.0 -
They claimed to oppose the deal because it didn't guarantee 100% repatriation of fishing rights. Now they are supporting a position that guarantees 0% repatriation.Pulpstar said:
Hmm no, the SNP aren't liars - they're straight up about remaining. Many on the Labour side are being deeply duplicitous.Theo said:
But once again the Remain media doesn't call out the hypocrisy of Remainers.0 -
Undoubtedly, but he’ll still win if he gets to the final two. He might even win a general election against Corbyn but he would be a terrible PM and not last long. Labour however might at least find someone sensible to replace Corbyn. The Tories will elect a Remainer and allow Corbyn in or another Leaver andallow Brexit to proceed. Don’t see the latter happening myself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Win and he would lose several defections and any chance of governingAmpfieldAndy said:
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over0 -
-
Interesting stuff.El_Capitano said:
It's interesting, though, isn't it?rottenborough said:Huge risk. I presume in between studying Greek and Sumerian, Boris had a glance at the workings of FPTP?
Thus far the cast-iron argument against a new centrist party has been that it's doomed under FPTP, as SDP Mark 1 was. Because if the Radicals or the Democrats or the Together Mix take 30% of the vote, most of that is off Labour and so the Tories live to fight another day.
But what if there's a new right-wing party as well? Farage+Boris vs May+Hammond vs Chuka+Soubry+Vince vs Corbyn+McDonnell. You potentially have four parties roughly scrapping around the 20-30% mark.
Uncharted waters. Obviously it'll never happen. But "obviously" doesn't work so well on a day where the Government has lost three votes in a row.
Goodwin has pointed out, many times, that the most likely new party is not some Blair centrist thing but a social conservative, Brexit-loving, economically to the slight left, thing to the right.0 -
Yep - suspect far less people are ultimately obsessed by Brexit than people on here possibly seem to think!IanB2 said:
That's just crap, though, isn't it? There is no 52%. There is a small number of libertarian Brexit fanatics on the right. There is a larger number of people strongly opposed to the EU largely because of open borders and immigration. Then there is a larger still number of people who don't, and never did, care that much about Europe either way but chose to vote Leave on balance for a variety of reasons of which funding for the NHS figures highly (just as there are a mass of Remain voters who aren't strongly pro-EU).GIN1138 said:
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.IanB2 said:
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.HYUFD said:
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.numbertwelve said:
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.
There is no political market of any size for the first group (which is why they have always tried to hijack the Tory Party from within). The third group don't care enough. Whether or not the second group might back some sort of new Banks/Farage type enterprise is indeed an open question, but (as with much of UKIPs support) they would draw support from across the political spectrum.
To think that 52 per cent will vote for the hard Brexiteer option is a non starter; let alone as their primary issue of focus at a GE (vs. NHS, education, taxes, etc); it is a hardcore minority who will fight on. Everyone else will move on I suspect....
0 -
I presume the scoring system of the Eton wall game working a bit differently to other games?Scott_P said:0 -
How are the polls and best leader ratings doing just now NickNickPalmer said:
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".HYUFD said:
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or notkle4 said:
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
We may well come full circle. Until a few years ago (a number which can be more precisely measured by using the number of appearances by Farage on the bbc :-) ) most people couldn't give a cuss about the detail of the EU.anothernick said:
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.tottenhamWC said:Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
0 -
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.anothernick said:
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.tottenhamWC said:Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
0 -
-
JRM was speculating it will be 5 votes either way earlier today for what that is worth. I can’t believe it will be that close. The deal has nothinggoing for it.rottenborough said:0 -
Remainer trying to convince himself that overturning the referendum result will have no consequences?anothernick said:
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.tottenhamWC said:Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
0 -
As has the EU.OldKingCole said:
That's why we need something bigger than the traditional Nation State. With some form of democratic management.another_richard said:So lots of fun on PB today I assume
What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.
There must be great inertia in modern society.
I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.
The Roman Empire had become concentrated on its own small centre.
And its 'democratic management' is based upon allowing only what its self-perpetuating leadership wants.0 -
Well, that's made Private Eye's 'Colman Balls' column (can't remember exactly what it is called now)FrancisUrquhart said:
I presume the scoring system of the Eton wall game working a bit differently to other games?Scott_P said:0 -
Sorry, pal. I don’t know who David is but he’s not me.Scott_P said:
Evening David. I mean Andy, sorry.AmpfieldAndy said:Next election will be next year and Britain will not leave the EU. Corbyn will be PM, the Tory Party will be decimated, businesses will flee the U.K. and we’ll regret we ever stuck with May for so long or defied the referendum result.
0 -
I doubt it. As I said yesterday, this isn't France. If Brexit is abrogated, I just won't vote Tory again. It will be very sad that the country would have sold itself for a mess of pottage, but I won't let bitterness consume me - bad for the complexion if nothing else!AmpfieldAndy said:
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.anothernick said:
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.tottenhamWC said:Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/04/brexit-fatigue-basildon-essex
With in-laws from Basildon my experience of the town every time I visit is that eyes were glazed over a long time ago...0 -
Liked May’s line to parliament that the outcome has to satisfy the 52% who voted Leave as well as the 48% who voted Remain. That all this is corrosive to our politics and that all progress is built on compromise.
She might have been bullied into it. The Citizens of Nowhere might now be, erm, nowhere. But she got there, eventually.0 -
Name 1 Leaver whom you would support against a Remainer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me. When did I say I would not support a leaver. Not an ERG member but there are many euro sceptics in the partyAmpfieldAndy said:
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
The party will hold together, painfully maybe, butnCorbyn unites the whole party to keep him out0 -
Far from it, game is only just beginning.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash0 -
its moving in th right direction, though.another_richard said:
As has the EU.OldKingCole said:
That's why we need something bigger than the traditional Nation State. With some form of democratic management.another_richard said:So lots of fun on PB today I assume
What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.
There must be great inertia in modern society.
I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.
The Roman Empire had become concentrated on its own small centre.
And its 'democratic management' is based upon allowing only what its self-perpetuating leadership wants.0 -
Head to head against Remain even No Deal gets at least 45% ie the same as Yes got in Scotland in 2014 and we all know what happened after the nationalist backlash in Scotland at General election 2015Big_G_NorthWales said:
What backlash. They are much diminished and losing influence by the hourHYUFD said:
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlashrottenborough said:
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:0 -
Margaret Beckett clearly didn't read @Antifrank piece on trade negotiations.0
-
Brilliant intervention from Margaret Beckett. Authoritative, Experienced, Factual.0
-
Even Labour lost lots of votes to UKIP in 2015 as it could do again if BINOGIN1138 said:
Your thinking the election will be a normal Con Vs Lab election. It will not.IanB2 said:
The next election hangs, as I have said before, upon who is unsqueezed.HYUFD said:
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.numbertwelve said:
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
At the moment all the main parties are speaking for the 48%. Nobody is speaking for the 52% and in fact the 52% is held in contempt by the establishment.
That's not sustainable so inevitably a new party for the 52% will rise to fill the vacuum. Add to that the looming Con split and you can see how the right of center vote will be torn apart allowing Labour through the middle.0 -
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.NickPalmer said:
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".HYUFD said:
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or notkle4 said:
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
0 -
Just watching back Boris. What a rambling incoherent idiot.
Why didn't he just stand up, say he disagrees with the deal, sit down and let what he didn't say speak for him. Instead he is proving his moronicity.0 -
She always be a moron.RochdalePioneers said:Brilliant intervention from Margaret Beckett. Authoritative, Experienced, Factual.
0 -
There are more than enough Brexit hardliners to provide 20 to 25% for a new populist anti immigration party and we have our own FN, AfD, Swedish Democrats or Lega NordIanB2 said:
I honestly don't think there will be one; people have had enough and if things settle down after a BINO type deal, no-one will be willing to hear much more from the Brexit hardnuts, whose reputations and credibility are mostly shot. Their only chance of any sort of backlash is if we remain.HYUFD said:
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlashrottenborough said:
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:0 -
I was with you until you write ‘thing to the right’. Eh?rottenborough said:
Interesting stuff.El_Capitano said:
It's interesting, though, isn't it?rottenborough said:Huge risk. I presume in between studying Greek and Sumerian, Boris had a glance at the workings of FPTP?
Thus far the cast-iron argument against a new centrist party has been that it's doomed under FPTP, as SDP Mark 1 was. Because if the Radicals or the Democrats or the Together Mix take 30% of the vote, most of that is off Labour and so the Tories live to fight another day.
But what if there's a new right-wing party as well? Farage+Boris vs May+Hammond vs Chuka+Soubry+Vince vs Corbyn+McDonnell. You potentially have four parties roughly scrapping around the 20-30% mark.
Uncharted waters. Obviously it'll never happen. But "obviously" doesn't work so well on a day where the Government has lost three votes in a row.
Goodwin has pointed out, many times, that the most likely new party is not some Blair centrist thing but a social conservative, Brexit-loving, economically to the slight left, thing to the right.0 -
He is a man that supported a killing campaign against British citizens.Anazina said:
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.NickPalmer said:
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".HYUFD said:
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or notkle4 said:
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
Presents being the operative word.Anazina said:
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.NickPalmer said:
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".HYUFD said:
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or notkle4 said:
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
Triggered Art 50 when she clearly never intended to follow through with any sort of Brexit, ever.TheScreamingEagles said:
She always be a moron.RochdalePioneers said:Brilliant intervention from Margaret Beckett. Authoritative, Experienced, Factual.
No clue about how long trade deals take.
Got Corbyn on the ballot.
0 -
She is pretty much the first speaker that I have heard (I missed the PM's intro) who recognises the seriousness and import of the debate and is making points of substance rather than just trying to score debating points.TheScreamingEagles said:
She always be a moron.RochdalePioneers said:Brilliant intervention from Margaret Beckett. Authoritative, Experienced, Factual.
Boris behaved as if he was in a university union debate and, once it had finished, the only job remaining was a trip to the bar.0 -
Even now the Tories are polling at least as high as they got at General election 2015 with most post 2017 movement to UKIP not LabourNickPalmer said:
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".HYUFD said:
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or notkle4 said:
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
-
Very interesting that JRM called the MV that close. The only way it can be is if he supports May in the vote.AmpfieldAndy said:
JRM was speculating it will be 5 votes either way earlier today for what that is worth. I can’t believe it will be that close. The deal has nothinggoing for it.rottenborough said:0 -
So thought ukip. Once upon a time. If we remain, perhaps. But BINO doesn't agitate 2% let alone 20%. Brexit means Brexit (and nothing more), remember?HYUFD said:
There are more than enough Brexit hardliners to provide 20 to 25% for a new populist anti immigration party and we have our own FN, AfD, Swedish Democrats or Lega NordIanB2 said:
I honestly don't think there will be one; people have had enough and if things settle down after a BINO type deal, no-one will be willing to hear much more from the Brexit hardnuts, whose reputations and credibility are mostly shot. Their only chance of any sort of backlash is if we remain.HYUFD said:
The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlashrottenborough said:
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:0 -
https://twitter.com/AlexanderGardin/status/1070026410679549957steve_garner said:Very interesting that JRM called the MV that close. The only way it can be is if he supports May in the vote.
0 -
I am the moron for sitting watching this in my hotel room. But its a politics trip to London so why not watch politics on TV before watching from the gallery tomorrow?TheScreamingEagles said:
She always be a moron.RochdalePioneers said:Brilliant intervention from Margaret Beckett. Authoritative, Experienced, Factual.
0 -
Listening to her speech, I'm wondering why the hell did Beckett trigger Art 50 or the referendum ?0
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DIdn't see it but the fact that so many remainers here and on social media are attacking Boris's speech so intensely makes me think that it was probably rather good...TOPPING said:Just watching back Boris. What a rambling incoherent idiot.
Why didn't he just stand up, say he disagrees with the deal, sit down and let what he didn't say speak for him. Instead he is proving his moronicity.0 -
Hence why I used it!FrancisUrquhart said:
Presents being the operative word.Anazina said:
I’m instinctively antagonistic to McDonnell as you would expect from someone well to the right of him. But I’ve been very impressed by him. He presents as pragmatic and competent even if he is not.NickPalmer said:
I think quite a lot of Tory voters would simply abstain at the moment. The party is driving itself into the ground and appears incapable of running the country in any coherent fashion, good or bad. Tory voters will be deeply sceptical of Corbyn, but Labour has managed to look reasonably coherent for the last year and both McDonnell and Starmer are clearly competent. You can't beat something with nothing, and I think a fair number of voters will shrug and say "OK, let them have a go while the Tories sort themselves out".HYUFD said:
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or notkle4 said:
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
I wouldn’t be surprised if he did. He is all talk and very little substance.steve_garner said:
Very interesting that JRM called the MV that close. The only way it can be is if he supports May in the vote.AmpfieldAndy said:
JRM was speculating it will be 5 votes either way earlier today for what that is worth. I can’t believe it will be that close. The deal has nothinggoing for it.rottenborough said:0 -
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It must be really tiring seeing racism in every story...rather than guy who wrote a stinker of a book got it published because he has name recognition which is likely to make it sell and has made publishers a lot of money over the years.
https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/04/bad-sex-award-james-frey-katerina-fiction0 -
Penny MordauntAmpfieldAndy said:
Name 1 Leaver whom you would support against a Remainer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me. When did I say I would not support a leaver. Not an ERG member but there are many euro sceptics in the partyAmpfieldAndy said:
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
The party will hold together, painfully maybe, butnCorbyn unites the whole party to keep him out0 -
AmpfieldAndy said:
There will undoubtedly be a huge backlash if there is no Brexit.anothernick said:
I agree. Outside political circles Brexit is a massive yawn and people just want it to go away. The chances that there will be a massive backlash if we end up with BRINO or remain are wildly overstated, mostly by people who spent their entire lives obsessing about the EU and think that everyone else has done the same. But they haven't.tottenhamWC said:Talking to family this evening, some previously hardcore leaver relatives seem to have thrown in the towel and have switched to "what's the point... we might as well remain"; no real anger more resignation. Interesting to see where opinion polls move - or not - over coming days
I’m starting to doubt that. I think most normal people (I.e. not PBers) are bored to tears with it, past caring.0 -
Fair enough. I had a lot of time for her myself but not if she supports May’s deal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Penny MordauntAmpfieldAndy said:
Name 1 Leaver whom you would support against a Remainer.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Excuse me. When did I say I would not support a leaver. Not an ERG member but there are many euro sceptics in the partyAmpfieldAndy said:
If Boris gets to the final 2 up against a Remainer, he’ll win. Even as a Leaver I think that would be a mistake but I would support him against a Remainer just as you would support any Remainer against any Leaver. I don’t see how the party holds together myself.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
The party will hold together, painfully maybe, butnCorbyn unites the whole party to keep him out0 -
It is over for him in the conservative party, maybe he can lead UKIP with FarageHYUFD said:
Far from it, game is only just beginning.Big_G_NorthWales said:
He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over
Of course he is not going to be happy he is not getting pure Brexit, all the better for him to lead the Brexiteer backlash0 -
Isn't there going to be a UKIP/Tommy Robinson march in London on Sunday? I think Farage is expecting violence and he's dissociating himself before it all starts kicking off.TheScreamingEagles said:
Though I'm sure he's lining up starting a new party as well...0
