politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First of the weekend’s polls sees LAB edge up in ICM/Sunday

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a story in the Sunday Times that's going to either confuse the Daily Mail or is a Daily Mail dream story

A MUSLIM family of Somali origin have protested after social services chose a white lesbian couple to adopt their three-year-old daughter.

They say offers from four members of their extended family to care for the girl were rejected. Relatives want the child to be brought up by a family who share their religious and ethnic background.

There are times I believe that the social services are really just trolling people...

TheScreamingEagles said:

There's a story in the Sunday Times that's going to either confuse the Daily Mail or is a Daily Mail dream story

A MUSLIM family of Somali origin have protested after social services chose a white lesbian couple to adopt their three-year-old daughter.

They say offers from four members of their extended family to care for the girl were rejected. Relatives want the child to be brought up by a family who share their religious and ethnic background.

Let's hope social services don't cave in on this.

fitalass said:

Any Conservative Leader that decides to form a pact with UKIP would cross my red line and end my support for the party.

Blue line, surely?

AndyJS and any other Bridge fans - the author's now corrected his earlier statement - next and final sderies will air in Sweden Sept 2015 (not 2016) - so presumably here around Xmas. And yes, quite remarkable writing there.

The discussion with the author is on http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/blogbbctv/posts/The-Bridge-Live-web-chat (assume it will stay up after the chat finishes). You have to page through zillions of pending-noderaiton messages to find his replies. Warning - it's full of soilers for anyone who hasn't watched it yet.

Ninoinoz said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Ninoinoz said:

fitalass said:

Any Conservative Leader that decides to form a pact with UKIP would cross my red line and end my support for the party.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Hmmm despite the spin, a majority of Tories are opposed to a pact with UKIP

When we last asked Conservative members in our monthly survey whether or not the Party should form a pact with UKIP for the next election, they divided a third for, a third against and a third not knowing (34 per cent, 33 per cent and 33 per cent, to be precise).

The best part of nine month months on, the percentage not knowing has been whittled down to a nugatory five per cent. The proportion wanting a deal is up to 41 per cent – just over two in five Tory activists, as I say. 54 per cent, the majority, are against

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/02/two-in-five-tory-members-want-a-pact-with-ukip.html

Really? Why start now?

Your conservative "principles" must be pretty elastic if you're still in the Conservative Party after all the Cameroons have done and said.

I think the mistake you are making is in believing that Cameroons have any principles in the first place.

Oh, I don't know.

Is discarding anything or anyone who might hinder their pursuit of political power a guiding principle?

"Power flows only to those who know how!" - Megatron in "Transformers: Arrival From Cyberton"

Grrr, there's only a part yougov in the Sunday Times.

LDs 8%, UKIP 12%

'The Bridge' is fantastic enough to make the sometimes ludicrous plot twists believable.

There's some YouGov polling/Peter Kellner piece in the Sunday Times on the 50p

The effects of the 50p tax rate, part I

54% think Labour will end up raising taxes paid by people on average earnings, not just the rich

28% Say the 50p tax rate will help keep taxes down for those on average earning.

18% DK

The effects of the 50p tax rate, part II

16% Think it will raise significant extra revenue and help Labour reduce the deficit

71% Say rich people will find ways of avoiding the increase, so won't raise much

13% DK

On the effects of the 50p tax rate on foreign businesses investing in the UK

49% say it will have little/no effect on the decisions of foreign business leaders to invest in the UK

32% Disagree and say it will deter foreign business leaders in investing and job opportunities will suffer

19% DK

MikeK said:

ABBA on BBC channel 4 for the last hour and half; still continuing. Sublime.

Ah, I have been on Sky Arts watching Bryan Ferry 'Dylanesque' followed by the Roxy Music Story. Fab music.

TSE - FFS am I carrying the stanchions with the squirrel or not?

Pulpstar said:

Sunil - Your colours look very... UKIP !

Nonsense, that's just your imagination

I will second that.

AndyJS said:

The best period for pop music was roughly 1975-85 IMO. Early 80s is my favourite, probably around 1981-84.

Watched 12 Years a slave at the cinema, Chiwetel Ejiofor gives a very strong performance. An excellent movie.

AndyJS said:

The best period for pop music was roughly 1975-85 IMO. Early 80s is my favourite, probably around 1981-84. At the moment I'm listening to Level 42's first 3 albums, which are amazingly good. They were a jazz/funk/pop band in those days before becoming more mainstream in the mid/late 80s.

For me it was probably 1967 to 1980. As a decade the 70s are very hard to beat. I do havea particular love for the late 70s with the first few albums from Talking Heads, Blondie, Dire Straits, Ian Dury and Squeeze before they all went a bit too professional and smooth.

Holy hell http://www.foc.us/ o_O

Overclock your brain using transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) to increase the plasticity of your brain. Make your synapses fire faster.

@NickPalmer I've watched every episode at least twice to pick u the nuances. A fantastic series.

There's a Welsh spin off that I've just discovered called "Hinterland" which is really good as well.

MikeSmithson said:

@NickPalmer I've watched every episode at least twice to pick u the nuances. A fantastic series.

There's a Welsh spin off that I've just discovered called "Hinterland" which is really good as well.

I read about that in the Standard today - apparently the series is still on iplayer - but only until tomorrow night!

Good interview with the main actors for Bridge groupies here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25960862

Eagles, is it becoming incredible rare to find a phone poll of Scottish Westminster/Holyrood voting intentions these days?

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Survation on Scottish Westminster and Holyrood VI

Westminster Voting Intention

Conservative – 16%, Labour – 38%, Liberal Democrat – 10%, SNP – 30%, Other – 6%

Holyrood Voting Intention

Conservative – 12%, Labour – 36%, Liberal Democrat – 9%, SNP – 38%, Other – 5%

- See more at: http://survation.com/2014/02/new-polling-on-scottish-independence-what-if-conservative-fortunes-improved/#sthash.giGXIz48.dpuf

TheScreamingEagles said:

Survation on Scottish Westminster and Holyrood VI

Westminster Voting Intention

Conservative – 16%, Labour – 38%, Liberal Democrat – 10%, SNP – 30%, Other – 6%

Holyrood Voting Intention

Conservative – 12%, Labour – 36%, Liberal Democrat – 9%, SNP – 38%, Other – 5%

- See more at: http://survation.com/2014/02/new-polling-on-scottish-independence-what-if-conservative-fortunes-improved/#sthash.giGXIz48.dpuf

SNP is not doing too badly in Westminster polls.

IN 2010, it was: Lab 42%, SNP 20%, LD 19%, Con 17%.. So despite the headlines, the Tory share has actually gone down. Labour may lose a few seats. However, Labour did add 2.5% in 2010 without gaining a single seat. So there is some insulation in their votes.

Polls are open in Thailand. SeanT is still in Bangkok I think.

Even trashy pop from the early 80s tends to be worth listening to I find, especially when produced by the likes of Trevor Horn and Arif Mardin.

AndyJS said:

Polls are open in Thailand. SeanT is still in Bangkok I think.

My theory is that the "No more democracy" side are going to have a hard time getting their voters to turn out.

PS Follow ＠thegrugq on the Twitters for good snarky commentary from a security perspective.

Your really not getting it on this issue living abroad. Labour took the 10p tax rate away from the lowest earners to fund a 2p tax cut for middle income earners in Gordon Brown's last budget as Chancellor before he entered No10. Most of those low income earners didn't really understand the slight of hand or the impact of what he had done until they opened their pay packets the following year, but it was debated here on PB at the time, and right up until it really impacted on those lowest earners. Brown and his Government on the other hand, only then increased the top rate of tax for the highest earners 57 days before he left Office. He also gave David Cameron as the next PM a pay cut about that time too.

Right now, Osborne has dropped the highest rate from 50p to 45p, but the richest earners continue to pay far more under this government than they ever did over the 13 years that Labour were in power. The lowest earners on the other hand, have now been lifted out of paying income tax at all. The Conservative party is in favour of lower taxes, the Labour party are not. So no, the voters don't currently perceive that the Tories intend to raise taxes for anyone after the GE.

edmundintokyo said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

54% think Labour will end up raising taxes paid by people on average earnings, not just the rich

28% Say the 50p tax rate will help keep taxes down for those on average earning.

This is the core of their problem. The voters may agree with them on the policy, but it'll still cost them votes if it worsens a general branding problem on tax and/or the economy.

That said, what are the equivalent numbers for the Tories ending up raising taxes paid by people on average earnings? Maybe the voters perceive (correctly, IMHO) that taxes are going up whoever wins.

AndyJS said:

Polls are open in Thailand. SeanT is still in Bangkok I think.

He was posting here the other day - inimitably, but under a pseudonym.