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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First of the weekend’s polls sees LAB edge up in ICM/Sunday

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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    There's a story in the Sunday Times that's going to either confuse the Daily Mail or is a Daily Mail dream story

    A MUSLIM family of Somali origin have protested after social services chose a white lesbian couple to adopt their three-year-old daughter.

    They say offers from four members of their extended family to care for the girl were rejected. Relatives want the child to be brought up by a family who share their religious and ethnic background.

    There are times I believe that the social services are really just trolling people...

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    The final two episodes of The Bridge were pretty harrowing viewing IMO. Brilliant scriptwriting.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    There's a story in the Sunday Times that's going to either confuse the Daily Mail or is a Daily Mail dream story

    A MUSLIM family of Somali origin have protested after social services chose a white lesbian couple to adopt their three-year-old daughter.

    They say offers from four members of their extended family to care for the girl were rejected. Relatives want the child to be brought up by a family who share their religious and ethnic background.

    Let's hope social services don't cave in on this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Two partly Chinese candidates have now been selected in winnable seats: Sarah Yong for the LDs in Somerton & Frome and Sarah Owen for Labour in Hastings & Rye.
  • fitalass said:

    Any Conservative Leader that decides to form a pact with UKIP would cross my red line and end my support for the party.


    Blue line, surely?

    :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Polling stations in Thailand open in about 55 minutes:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26003995
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    AndyJS and any other Bridge fans - the author's now corrected his earlier statement - next and final sderies will air in Sweden Sept 2015 (not 2016) - so presumably here around Xmas. And yes, quite remarkable writing there.
  • AndyJS said:

    Two partly Chinese candidates have now been selected in winnable seats: Sarah Yong for the LDs in Somerton & Frome and Sarah Owen for Labour in Hastings & Rye.

    South Belfast has an ethnic Chinese MLA (Stormont) - Anna Lo of the Alliance Party.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    The discussion with the author is on http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/blogbbctv/posts/The-Bridge-Live-web-chat (assume it will stay up after the chat finishes). You have to page through zillions of pending-noderaiton messages to find his replies. Warning - it's full of soilers for anyone who hasn't watched it yet.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014

    AndyJS and any other Bridge fans - the author's now corrected his earlier statement - next and final sderies will air in Sweden Sept 2015 (not 2016) - so presumably here around Xmas. And yes, quite remarkable writing there.

    The scene in the female toilets was one of the most difficult to watch (in my experience). It was far worse than any horror film I've seen.
  • Ninoinoz said:

    Ninoinoz said:

    fitalass said:

    Any Conservative Leader that decides to form a pact with UKIP would cross my red line and end my support for the party.

    Hmmm despite the spin, a majority of Tories are opposed to a pact with UKIP

    When we last asked Conservative members in our monthly survey whether or not the Party should form a pact with UKIP for the next election, they divided a third for, a third against and a third not knowing (34 per cent, 33 per cent and 33 per cent, to be precise).

    The best part of nine month months on, the percentage not knowing has been whittled down to a nugatory five per cent. The proportion wanting a deal is up to 41 per cent – just over two in five Tory activists, as I say. 54 per cent, the majority, are against

    http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/02/two-in-five-tory-members-want-a-pact-with-ukip.html

    Really? Why start now?

    Your conservative "principles" must be pretty elastic if you're still in the Conservative Party after all the Cameroons have done and said.
    I think the mistake you are making is in believing that Cameroons have any principles in the first place.
    Oh, I don't know.

    Is discarding anything or anyone who might hinder their pursuit of political power a guiding principle?
    "Power flows only to those who know how!" - Megatron in "Transformers: Arrival From Cyberton"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    I think one of the minor reasons people watch The Bridge is to see whether Saga might smile, if only for half a second. And of course she never will because the writers know people are longing for her to do precisely that.
  • Grrr, there's only a part yougov in the Sunday Times.

    LDs 8%, UKIP 12%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Clive James: The end of The Bridge? I might die of despair

    Sofia Helin's Saga Noren in The Bridge is a case to be solved in herself, says Clive James":


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/tv-and-radio-reviews/10602238/Clive-James-The-end-of-The-Bridge-I-might-die-of-despair.html
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited February 2014
    ABBA on BBC channel 4 for the last hour and half; still continuing. Sublime.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited February 2014
    Sunil, good point, I should have said my clear blue Conservative line. :)

    fitalass said:

    Any Conservative Leader that decides to form a pact with UKIP would cross my red line and end my support for the party.


    Blue line, surely?

    :)
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    'The Bridge' is fantastic enough to make the sometimes ludicrous plot twists believable.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    I wonder whether the writers were trying to make a point about the vacuity of swanky airport hotels?
  • There's some YouGov polling/Peter Kellner piece in the Sunday Times on the 50p

    The effects of the 50p tax rate, part I

    54% think Labour will end up raising taxes paid by people on average earnings, not just the rich

    28% Say the 50p tax rate will help keep taxes down for those on average earning.

    18% DK

    The effects of the 50p tax rate, part II

    16% Think it will raise significant extra revenue and help Labour reduce the deficit

    71% Say rich people will find ways of avoiding the increase, so won't raise much

    13% DK

    On the effects of the 50p tax rate on foreign businesses investing in the UK

    49% say it will have little/no effect on the decisions of foreign business leaders to invest in the UK

    32% Disagree and say it will deter foreign business leaders in investing and job opportunities will suffer

    19% DK
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    AndyJS said:

    Two partly Chinese candidates have now been selected in winnable seats: Sarah Yong for the LDs in Somerton & Frome and Sarah Owen for Labour in Hastings & Rye.

    Iirc (or rather remember reading from twitter) of the 8 seats where incumbent LD MPs are standing down, 6 have been selected, 5 of the 6 candidates are women. (The 6th is Ibrahim Taguri, standing in Brent central).

    The latent question of course being how many manage to hold the seat.
  • MikeK said:

    ABBA on BBC channel 4 for the last hour and half; still continuing. Sublime.

    Ah, I have been on Sky Arts watching Bryan Ferry 'Dylanesque' followed by the Roxy Music Story. Fab music.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Sunil - Your colours look very... UKIP !
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TSE - FFS am I carrying the stanchions with the squirrel or not?
  • I'm crying like a disgraced televangelist that I missed something ABBA related on the Telly.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Sunil - Your colours look very... UKIP !

    Nonsense, that's just your imagination :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    The best period for pop music was roughly 1975-85 IMO. Early 80s is my favourite, probably around 1981-84. At the moment I'm listening to Level 42's first 3 albums, which are amazingly good. They were a jazz/funk/pop band in those days before becoming more mainstream in the mid/late 80s.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    I will second that.
    AndyJS said:

    The best period for pop music was roughly 1975-85 IMO. Early 80s is my favourite, probably around 1981-84.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    edited February 2014
    Some more yougov in the Sunday Times, I'm unamazed by this poll.

    A YouGov/Sunday Times survey has found that 56% of men, on meeting a woman, think most or some of the time what they would be like to make love to. The most likely to think about sex at first sight are male professionals aged 25 to 39.

    For women, 18% — think of sex the first time they meet a man.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Watched 12 Years a slave at the cinema, Chiwetel Ejiofor gives a very strong performance. An excellent movie.
  • Just got back in from a concert. Missed The Bridge and all the polling.

    There'll be a full round-up in the morning
  • AndyJS said:

    The best period for pop music was roughly 1975-85 IMO. Early 80s is my favourite, probably around 1981-84. At the moment I'm listening to Level 42's first 3 albums, which are amazingly good. They were a jazz/funk/pop band in those days before becoming more mainstream in the mid/late 80s.

    For me it was probably 1967 to 1980. As a decade the 70s are very hard to beat. I do havea particular love for the late 70s with the first few albums from Talking Heads, Blondie, Dire Straits, Ian Dury and Squeeze before they all went a bit too professional and smooth.
  • AndyJS said:

    The best period for pop music was roughly 1975-85 IMO. Early 80s is my favourite, probably around 1981-84. At the moment I'm listening to Level 42's first 3 albums, which are amazingly good. They were a jazz/funk/pop band in those days before becoming more mainstream in the mid/late 80s.

    The 80s were the best!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Holy hell http://www.foc.us/ o_O

    Overclock your brain using transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS) to increase the plasticity of your brain. Make your synapses fire faster.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567

    Just got back in from a concert. Missed The Bridge and all the polling.

    There'll be a full round-up in the morning

    The butler did it. :-)

    Seriously, do catch it on iplayer. Quite extraordinary.

  • @NickPalmer I've watched every episode at least twice to pick u the nuances. A fantastic series.

    There's a Welsh spin off that I've just discovered called "Hinterland" which is really good as well.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Survation on Scottish Westminster and Holyrood VI

    Westminster Voting Intention

    Conservative – 16%, Labour – 38%, Liberal Democrat – 10%, SNP – 30%, Other – 6%

    Holyrood Voting Intention

    Conservative – 12%, Labour – 36%, Liberal Democrat – 9%, SNP – 38%, Other – 5%

    - See more at: http://survation.com/2014/02/new-polling-on-scottish-independence-what-if-conservative-fortunes-improved/#sthash.giGXIz48.dpuf

    Survation on Scottish Westminster and Holyrood VI

    Westminster Voting Intention

    Conservative – 16%, Labour – 38%, Liberal Democrat – 10%, SNP – 30%, Other – 6%

    Holyrood Voting Intention

    Conservative – 12%, Labour – 36%, Liberal Democrat – 9%, SNP – 38%, Other – 5%

    - See more at: http://survation.com/2014/02/new-polling-on-scottish-independence-what-if-conservative-fortunes-improved/#sthash.giGXIz48.dpuf

    SNP is not doing too badly in Westminster polls.

    IN 2010, it was: Lab 42%, SNP 20%, LD 19%, Con 17%.. So despite the headlines, the Tory share has actually gone down. Labour may lose a few seats. However, Labour did add 2.5% in 2010 without gaining a single seat. So there is some insulation in their votes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567

    @NickPalmer I've watched every episode at least twice to pick u the nuances. A fantastic series.

    There's a Welsh spin off that I've just discovered called "Hinterland" which is really good as well.

    I read about that in the Standard today - apparently the series is still on iplayer - but only until tomorrow night!

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    I really regret never catching Fleetwood Mac, ABBA or Blondie live. The Police would have been on that list too if my best friend had not surprised me by getting us amazing seats at their Cardiff gig a few years ago, my first visit to Wales as well. I have to admit that Sting is like a very good vintage wine, he just gets better with age. :)
    AndyJS said:

    The best period for pop music was roughly 1975-85 IMO. Early 80s is my favourite, probably around 1981-84. At the moment I'm listening to Level 42's first 3 albums, which are amazingly good. They were a jazz/funk/pop band in those days before becoming more mainstream in the mid/late 80s.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,567
    Good interview with the main actors for Bridge groupies here:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-25960862
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2014
    Why does iPlayer have time limits when it's obviously possible to use a video/DVD machine to record programmes and keep them as long as you want? (I found an old video the other day recorded by my mum featuring Ken Hom's original Chinese cookery programme from 1984).

    Another gripe is that you can't download radio programmes with iPlayer. Only live streaming is available.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Eagles, is it becoming incredible rare to find a phone poll of Scottish Westminster/Holyrood voting intentions these days?
    surbiton said:

    Survation on Scottish Westminster and Holyrood VI

    Westminster Voting Intention

    Conservative – 16%, Labour – 38%, Liberal Democrat – 10%, SNP – 30%, Other – 6%

    Holyrood Voting Intention

    Conservative – 12%, Labour – 36%, Liberal Democrat – 9%, SNP – 38%, Other – 5%

    - See more at: http://survation.com/2014/02/new-polling-on-scottish-independence-what-if-conservative-fortunes-improved/#sthash.giGXIz48.dpuf

    Survation on Scottish Westminster and Holyrood VI

    Westminster Voting Intention

    Conservative – 16%, Labour – 38%, Liberal Democrat – 10%, SNP – 30%, Other – 6%

    Holyrood Voting Intention

    Conservative – 12%, Labour – 36%, Liberal Democrat – 9%, SNP – 38%, Other – 5%

    - See more at: http://survation.com/2014/02/new-polling-on-scottish-independence-what-if-conservative-fortunes-improved/#sthash.giGXIz48.dpuf

    SNP is not doing too badly in Westminster polls.

    IN 2010, it was: Lab 42%, SNP 20%, LD 19%, Con 17%.. So despite the headlines, the Tory share has actually gone down. Labour may lose a few seats. However, Labour did add 2.5% in 2010 without gaining a single seat. So there is some insulation in their votes.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited February 2014
    Another gem from the early eighties, Stevie Nicks going solo for a while.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Polls are open in Thailand. SeanT is still in Bangkok I think.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2014
    surbiton said:

    Survation on Scottish Westminster and Holyrood VI

    Westminster Voting Intention

    Conservative – 16%, Labour – 38%, Liberal Democrat – 10%, SNP – 30%, Other – 6%

    Holyrood Voting Intention

    Conservative – 12%, Labour – 36%, Liberal Democrat – 9%, SNP – 38%, Other – 5%

    - See more at: http://survation.com/2014/02/new-polling-on-scottish-independence-what-if-conservative-fortunes-improved/#sthash.giGXIz48.dpuf

    Survation on Scottish Westminster and Holyrood VI

    Westminster Voting Intention

    Conservative – 16%, Labour – 38%, Liberal Democrat – 10%, SNP – 30%, Other – 6%

    Holyrood Voting Intention

    Conservative – 12%, Labour – 36%, Liberal Democrat – 9%, SNP – 38%, Other – 5%

    - See more at: http://survation.com/2014/02/new-polling-on-scottish-independence-what-if-conservative-fortunes-improved/#sthash.giGXIz48.dpuf

    SNP is not doing too badly in Westminster polls.

    IN 2010, it was: Lab 42%, SNP 20%, LD 19%, Con 17%.. So despite the headlines, the Tory share has actually gone down. Labour may lose a few seats. However, Labour did add 2.5% in 2010 without gaining a single seat. So there is some insulation in their votes.
    I'm really fascinated by what will happen in Scotland at the next election. We all know the Lib Dems are getting absolutely hammered there even more than elsewhere in the UK, so where are their lost votes going to go? Labour obviously punched well above their weight in Scotland in 2010, and so arguably are operating at near maximum capacity already, so you'd think they maybe won't put on many extra votes. People make a good argument that people see the SNP as a bit of a wasted vote in Westminster elections, especially if they lose the independence referendum. The idea of a Scottish Tory surge doesn't really make much sense. UKIP are apparently not going anywhere there. Those lost Lib Dem votes are going to have to go somewhere, but, curiously, there doesn't seem any party who stands to be the obvious recipient of them.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Even trashy pop from the early 80s tends to be worth listening to I find, especially when produced by the likes of Trevor Horn and Arif Mardin.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    AndyJS said:

    Even trashy pop from the early 80s tends to be worth listening to I find, especially when produced by the likes of Trevor Horn and Arif Mardin.

    TSE, you've been warned before about hacking into other people's accounts.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2014
    AndyJS said:

    Polls are open in Thailand. SeanT is still in Bangkok I think.

    My theory is that the "No more democracy" side are going to have a hard time getting their voters to turn out.

    PS Follow @thegrugq on the Twitters for good snarky commentary from a security perspective.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited February 2014

    54% think Labour will end up raising taxes paid by people on average earnings, not just the rich

    28% Say the 50p tax rate will help keep taxes down for those on average earning.

    This is the core of their problem. The voters may agree with them on the policy, but it'll still cost them votes if it worsens a general branding problem on tax and/or the economy.

    That said, what are the equivalent numbers for the Tories ending up raising taxes paid by people on average earnings? Maybe the voters perceive (correctly, IMHO) that taxes are going up whoever wins.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    edited February 2014
    Your really not getting it on this issue living abroad. Labour took the 10p tax rate away from the lowest earners to fund a 2p tax cut for middle income earners in Gordon Brown's last budget as Chancellor before he entered No10. Most of those low income earners didn't really understand the slight of hand or the impact of what he had done until they opened their pay packets the following year, but it was debated here on PB at the time, and right up until it really impacted on those lowest earners. Brown and his Government on the other hand, only then increased the top rate of tax for the highest earners 57 days before he left Office. He also gave David Cameron as the next PM a pay cut about that time too.

    Right now, Osborne has dropped the highest rate from 50p to 45p, but the richest earners continue to pay far more under this government than they ever did over the 13 years that Labour were in power. The lowest earners on the other hand, have now been lifted out of paying income tax at all. The Conservative party is in favour of lower taxes, the Labour party are not. So no, the voters don't currently perceive that the Tories intend to raise taxes for anyone after the GE.

    54% think Labour will end up raising taxes paid by people on average earnings, not just the rich

    28% Say the 50p tax rate will help keep taxes down for those on average earning.

    This is the core of their problem. The voters may agree with them on the policy, but it'll still cost them votes if it worsens a general branding problem on tax and/or the economy.

    That said, what are the equivalent numbers for the Tories ending up raising taxes paid by people on average earnings? Maybe the voters perceive (correctly, IMHO) that taxes are going up whoever wins.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @edmundintokyo

    'This is the core of their problem. The voters may agree with them on the policy, but it'll still cost them votes if it worsens a general branding problem on tax and/or the economy.'

    It's in Labour's DNA to increase taxes whether there's an economic crisis or not,long before the crash of 20008 we had NI hikes,the doubling of council tax and of course the 10p rate scrapped.
  • AndyJS said:

    Polls are open in Thailand. SeanT is still in Bangkok I think.

    He was posting here the other day - inimitably, but under a pseudonym.
This discussion has been closed.