politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a huge political day the main Brexit linked betting changes
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a huge political day the main Brexit linked betting changes
Charts once again based on latest trades on the Betfair exchange shown as a percentage probability and derived from Betdat.io
Comments
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First like the "resurgent" SDP.
Although as a social liberal, I'm not quite sure what I think of Nigel Farage taking over at my spiritual home.0 -
Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
The mood music is shifting. It's remain to lose now. Which is still possible as there are many steps that yet, er, remain, but not surprised to see that cross over. Curious the referendum is still a lower chance. I guess an extension is still seen as likely before any such vote, as it is pretty close now.
If there is not a GE next year I will be very happy, if slightly poorer.0 -
LikewiseEl_Capitano said:
First like the "resurgent" SDP.
Although as a social liberal, I'm not quite sure what I think of Nigel Farage taking over at my spiritual home.0 -
2018 will be its last year in office.rottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.0
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Last year or last 'full' year in office?kle4 said:
2018 will be its last year in office.rottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?0
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Like Damian McBride I'm fully expecting Mrs May to announce her resignation next week.rottenborough said:0 -
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.0 -
No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.rottenborough said:More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
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Last full year. It's not easy to totally replace it in the next few weeks.rottenborough said:
Last year or last 'full' year in office?kle4 said:
2018 will be its last year in office.rottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
kle4 said:
Last full year. It's not easy to totally replace it in the next few weeks.rottenborough said:
Last year or last 'full' year in office?kle4 said:
2018 will be its last year in office.rottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
That's what I thought you meant. 0 -
Those saying the least are the ones to watch for future leader bid.kle4 said:
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.0 -
And yet still 9 on BF.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.rottenborough said:More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
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FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)
Oh not this rubbish again!Novo said:None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!0 -
Tory MPs control the first part of the process.rottenborough said:
And yet still 9 on BF.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.rottenborough said:More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.
Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.
Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.0 -
Ah, that'll be this chap then - back in 2016 he was the least active in parliament of all the new intakeFrancisUrquhart said:
Those saying the least are the ones to watch for future leader bid.kle4 said:
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-royston-smith-is-least-active-among-parliaments-new-members-a6886761.html0 -
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Boris really poor here. Finding it hard to put a coherent sentence together under heavy mockery.0
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Tory MP nails it.
Boris and the ERG are trying to win 7 nil but risk losing 4 - 3.0 -
Of course, if his leadership ambitions are floundering he has even less reason to stop opposing May (or her successor, since she is a zombie PM right now).eek said:0 -
Boris Johnson: There are alternatives to the withdrawal agreement
Sir Peter Bottomley (and other Tory MPs): So what are these alternatives?
Boris: *Tumbleweeds*0 -
Good evening, everybody.
I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.0 -
Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...kle4 said:
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.0 -
That's peculiar, considering we have had reports the Cabinet (sans May) is preparing alternatives to the WA.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson: There are alternatives to the withdrawal agreement
Sir Peter Bottomley (and other Tory MPs): So what are these alternatives?
Boris: *Tumbleweeds*0 -
Yes, but not the ones that Boris 'Farage' Johnson wants.kle4 said:
That's peculiar, considering we have had reports the Cabinet (sans May) is preparing alternatives to the WA.TheScreamingEagles said:Boris Johnson: There are alternatives to the withdrawal agreement
Sir Peter Bottomley (and other Tory MPs): So what are these alternatives?
Boris: *Tumbleweeds*0 -
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1070043432155049984
And I'm only quoting Ian as he is saving me from watching it.0 -
Boris in full on cake and unicorns mode. Get rid of backstop and keep half the money. The EU will fold under such a scenario.0
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Liddington is 65 on BFeek said:
Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...kle4 said:
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.0 -
I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...AnneJGP said:Good evening, everybody.
I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.0 -
Utterly off topic but it makes me laugh
https://twitter.com/AltCyberCommand/status/10700405970444533780 -
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Surely you joke?GIN1138 said:
I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...AnneJGP said:Good evening, everybody.
I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.0 -
Apparently they are so desperate for a deal they will do just that.Scott_P said:0 -
You are looking at the wrong market - Liddington is 70 on BF for next PM and that is the first market to look at when May walks away next week and a short term PM is required...rottenborough said:
Liddington is 65 on BFeek said:
Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...kle4 said:
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.0 -
Who is the MP sitting behind Johnson? Might stick a pony on him for next Tory Leader, tbh.0
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Though we do have a substantially different electorate to 3 years ago, even if few change their minds, and that is before turnout issues.GIN1138 said:FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)
Oh not this rubbish again!Novo said:None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
Traditionally the move to the right with age was due to economic issues, job progression, income, homeownership, children. That may well not be the case anymore, and conceivably the economic issues could push people towards Remain.
The only way to be sure is to pull back and have a #peoplesvote, viewed from orbit.0 -
Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPsTheScreamingEagles said:
Tory MPs control the first part of the process.rottenborough said:
And yet still 9 on BF.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.rottenborough said:More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.
Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.
Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.0 -
Yes.GIN1138 said:
I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...AnneJGP said:Good evening, everybody.
I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.0 -
Apologies it was Sir Roger Gale not Sir Peter Bottomley.0
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Don't ask me. I am trying hard to follow. Logic, along with answering hostile questions, are not 2 of BoJos strong points.alex. said:
Hold off half the money that we’re committed to pay at a rate of about £1b a year over 40 years?dixiedean said:Boris in full on cake and unicorns mode. Get rid of backstop and keep half the money. The EU will fold under such a scenario.
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That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
Indeed. Thanks. But that is what I am looking at. I have 65 on my screen.eek said:
You are looking at the wrong market - Liddington is 70 on BF for next PM and that is the first market to look at when May walks away next week and a short term PM is required...rottenborough said:
Liddington is 65 on BFeek said:
Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...kle4 said:
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.0 -
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And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.HYUFD said:
Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPsTheScreamingEagles said:
Tory MPs control the first part of the process.rottenborough said:
And yet still 9 on BF.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.rottenborough said:More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.
Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.
Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.0 -
If and when May goes it is hard to see past Boris v CorbynGIN1138 said:
I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...AnneJGP said:Good evening, everybody.
I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.0 -
I assume if (God forbid) Boris ever becomes Tory leader, Scott Mann will have quite a senior job.0
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I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.0 -
But has a lot more charisma and the support of the DUPTheScreamingEagles said:
And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.HYUFD said:
Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPsTheScreamingEagles said:
Tory MPs control the first part of the process.rottenborough said:
And yet still 9 on BF.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.rottenborough said:More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.
Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.
Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.0 -
Maybe not youself but some of us can!HYUFD said:
If and when May goes it is hard to see past Boris v CorbynGIN1138 said:
I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...AnneJGP said:Good evening, everybody.
I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.0 -
These conversions tend to happen in middle age. As the average age of home ownership inexorably rises into the same age group, one wonders whether the tendency is diminishing somewhat.GIN1138 said:FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)
Oh not this rubbish again!Novo said:None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!0 -
I can still see £3 at 70.. (it was £6 but I've taken £3 of it to add to the amount I added earlier),.rottenborough said:
Indeed. Thanks. But that is what I am looking at. I have 65 on my screen.eek said:
You are looking at the wrong market - Liddington is 70 on BF for next PM and that is the first market to look at when May walks away next week and a short term PM is required...rottenborough said:
Liddington is 65 on BFeek said:
Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...kle4 said:
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.0 -
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
Oh yes, I agree. I was talking about the control and command of the HoC.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
That is collapsing as we watch. Power is sometimes psychological as well as shear numbers.0 -
Generally I would be inclined to agree but not over such a short time scale. People might become more conservative over decades as they get older but I doubt anyone has suddenly become more Brexity because they are 2 years older.GIN1138 said:FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)
Oh not this rubbish again!Novo said:None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
You might not care to admit it but demographics will undoubtedly help Remain if there is a second vote. Deaths will have come overwhelmingly from the most Brexit demographic and youngsters joining the register are likely to be overwhelmingly remain. I'm not sure how you can seriously argue otherwise.0 -
Good closing line from Boris 'If we try and cheat the voters now they will spot it and never forgive it'0
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Have they got their popcorn out? or is that unparliamentry?Scott_P said:0 -
Ian Blackford now up as the SNP's preference for permanent Single Market and Customs Union looms closer0
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0
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The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.0 -
Well sure, but a lot of MPs, possibly the majority are obviously working toward remain anyway, so a backlash is kind of going to be baked in.NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
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Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.0 -
No. The establishment is out of control and purely in it for themselves. The country needs once in a century shake up.NorthofStoke said:
Surely you joke?GIN1138 said:
I think we've got to let Corbyn clear out the establishment in order to build something better after his done his worst...AnneJGP said:Good evening, everybody.
I'm more than somewhat dismayed at the prospect of an anti-Jewish Labour government, but it will be interesting to see how communism works out in this day & age and in this country.
The people tried to do it with Brexit but that decision is in the process of being overturned.
The only thing left to bring the establishment to their knees is a Corbyn government...0 -
Dunno about anyone else, but Boris summing up seemed to me to be a man who knows he is about to lose the prize in more ways than one.
More like an exhausted warning than a clarion call to his ERG fellows.0 -
So lots of fun on PB today I assume
What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.
There must be great inertia in modern society.
I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.0 -
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.0 -
Andactuarily the CDE demographic that is most Brexity has a higher than average mortality, while AB Liberals live on in their dotage. It is possible that numbers not standardised by SE class underestimate the effect.OllyT said:
Generally I would be inclined to agree but not over such a short time scale. People might become more conservative over decades as they get older but I doubt anyone has suddenly become more Brexity because they are 2 years older.GIN1138 said:FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)
Oh not this rubbish again!Novo said:None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
You might not care to admit it but demographics will undoubtedly help Remain if there is a second vote. Deaths will have come overwhelmingly from the most Brexit demographic and youngsters joining the register are likely to be overwhelmingly remain. I'm not sure how you can seriously argue otherwise.0 -
How many votes do the DUP have in the MPs section of the Tory leadership election?HYUFD said:
But has a lot more charisma and the support of the DUPTheScreamingEagles said:
And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.HYUFD said:
Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPsTheScreamingEagles said:
Tory MPs control the first part of the process.rottenborough said:
And yet still 9 on BF.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.rottenborough said:More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.
Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.
Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.0 -
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.0 -
It won't as most Tory voters would vote for them over Corbyn even if Tory MPs were machinegunning each other in the Commons whether that have agreed on anything or notkle4 said:
Something is going to give at some point. Even if you want to vote Tory how would you even know what you might be voting for if there were an election? Labour's Brexit policy is a deliberately vague contradiction, but at least I know it, the Tories could be backing anything by next week when May goes, and even then hundreds of them will be supporting some other thing, who knows what any candidates might think.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.0 -
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Boris was Labours perfect amuse bouche to cleanse the palate of Corbyns sub-par performance.
They just sat back and enjoyed the blue on blue tones.0 -
HYFUD is a fervent supporting of polling to say the least.numbertwelve said:
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.0 -
Probably the news that impacted directly on the lives of millions today was that Grayling remains TransportSec0
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More than they should, if they make clear through back channels that the confidence and supply agreement would not work with some candidates.TheScreamingEagles said:
How many votes do the DUP have in the MPs section of the Tory leadership election?HYUFD said:
But has a lot more charisma and the support of the DUPTheScreamingEagles said:
And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.HYUFD said:
Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPsTheScreamingEagles said:
Tory MPs control the first part of the process.rottenborough said:
And yet still 9 on BF.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.rottenborough said:More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.
Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.
Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.0 -
Largely it’s as a result of the major political battles of the post-war period having been won. But new battles now appear to be emerging, new fault lines. Trump, Brexit and Corbynism show that people are starting to challenge the status quo.another_richard said:So lots of fun on PB today I assume
What strikes me is despite the utter uselessness of governments (and its a similar story in other western countries) life for almost all people continues to roll on as normal.
There must be great inertia in modern society.
I wonder if this was how people felt in the last century of the Roman Empire.
At this stage, we just don’t know who the victors will be.
0 -
Remember how earlier this year some people tried to claim that foreign investment in the UK had collapsed ?
' Investment into the UK from foreign companies rose to the highest level ever recorded last year as investors shrug off Brexit worries.
The value of the UK’s foreign direct investment (FDI) stocks in 2017 was £1,336.5bn, a rise of £149.2bn since 2016, according to figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The total, which is a record high, was boosted by a 321 per cent growth in investments from India.
Outward investment also increased by £38.7bn to £1,313.3bn over the period. Earnings from these investments enjoyed considerable growth, reversing the negative trend seen in recent years. '
http://www.cityam.com/270147/uk-foreign-investment-hits-record-high-investors-shun0 -
The Commons is split down the middle but the last Brecit standing is probably BINO if May's Deal goes downrottenborough said:
Oh yes, I agree. I was talking about the control and command of the HoC.HYUFD said:
That has been the case for months, yet still the Tories level with Labour in the polls and May leads Corbyn as best PMrottenborough said:Blue on blue now.
This is a government falling to pieces in front of our eyes.
That is collapsing as we watch. Power is sometimes psychological as well as shear numbers.0 -
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:0 -
Months and months ago I, and others I am sure, speculated that if any top Brexiteer was to flip back to remain and kind of make it work, it would be Boris. His words there are once again so anti the deal, or any similar deal, that remaining seems very viable.Scott_P said:0 -
Watching this speech you can see what a disaster he would be as PM. He has looked better on smaller stages where he isn't open to much challenge.dixiedean said:
Don't ask me. I am trying hard to follow. Logic, along with answering hostile questions, are not 2 of BoJos strong points.alex. said:
Hold off half the money that we’re committed to pay at a rate of about £1b a year over 40 years?dixiedean said:Boris in full on cake and unicorns mode. Get rid of backstop and keep half the money. The EU will fold under such a scenario.
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None. And a lot less sway that they did last month, given the way they have carried on in recent days.TheScreamingEagles said:
How many votes do the DUP have in the MPs section of the Tory leadership election?HYUFD said:
But has a lot more charisma and the support of the DUPTheScreamingEagles said:
And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.HYUFD said:
Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPsTheScreamingEagles said:
Tory MPs control the first part of the process.rottenborough said:
And yet still 9 on BF.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.rottenborough said:More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.
Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.
Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.0 -
The Tories poll rating of 42% actually almost exactly matched that at the start of the campaign, all that happened was Corbyn squeezed the minor parties votes which he cannot do again.numbertwelve said:
As the previous election showed, we can’t guarantee a result based on pre campaign polls.HYUFD said:
Which acvording to the polls will lead to just more indecision and an even more hung parliamentnumbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.0 -
Indeed, you did. It would be incredible. But then again...kle4 said:
Months and months ago I, and others I am sure, speculated that if any top Brexiteer was to flip back to remain and kind of make it work, it would be Boris. His words there are once again so anti the deal, or any similar deal, that remaining seems very viable.Scott_P said:0 -
The whole electorate has had two more years to watch the EU in action. Some who previously voted remain will no doubt have misgivings about its behaviour.OllyT said:
Generally I would be inclined to agree but not over such a short time scale. People might become more conservative over decades as they get older but I doubt anyone has suddenly become more Brexity because they are 2 years older.GIN1138 said:FPT (so we can go through this thread without it being repeased)
Oh not this rubbish again!Novo said:None of the analysis here reflects on our changing Demographics might effect the outcome of a second referendum. There are roughly 500,000m deaths each year in the uk. If we assume that 75% voted leave and they are replaced by 16-17yr old from 2016 who would vote 75% to remain, then the original majority has probably disappeared. We should have sought a 60%+ majority for such major consitutional change. Parliament and our people are hopelessly divided - a good reason for staying as we are!
For every old person who dies another old person replaces them and they tend to be just as right wing.
Hence the reason we don't stop having right of center governments!
You might not care to admit it but demographics will undoubtedly help Remain if there is a second vote. Deaths will have come overwhelmingly from the most Brexit demographic and youngsters joining the register are likely to be overwhelmingly remain. I'm not sure how you can seriously argue otherwise.0 -
The Norway Debate is one of the Parliamentary moments in the 20th Century that is most often positively referred to as a moment when the Commons was at the centre of the central political question of the day.numbertwelve said:The government has shown it does not have the necessary will and numbers to govern and parliament has shown it does not have the numbers to act decisively (except maybe for Norway?)
Can’t belive I’m saying this but it’s time for a GE.
Are we building up to another Norway Debate for the 21st Century?
It has the potential to shape the coming century for Britain.0 -
You mean like filing a news piece (very late) from Brussels and then heading to the pub?IanB2 said:
Watching this speech you can see what a disaster he would be as PM. He has looked better on smaller stages where he isn't open to much challenge.dixiedean said:
Don't ask me. I am trying hard to follow. Logic, along with answering hostile questions, are not 2 of BoJos strong points.alex. said:
Hold off half the money that we’re committed to pay at a rate of about £1b a year over 40 years?dixiedean said:Boris in full on cake and unicorns mode. Get rid of backstop and keep half the money. The EU will fold under such a scenario.
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The DUP determine who becomes PM at present but as I said Boris only needs 80 odd MPs to get to the final 2 and there are more thsn enough Brexiteers to get that.TheScreamingEagles said:
How many votes do the DUP have in the MPs section of the Tory leadership election?HYUFD said:
But has a lot more charisma and the support of the DUPTheScreamingEagles said:
And, Boris carries a lot more baggage than they ever did.HYUFD said:
Even Leadsom, IDS and Davis made the final 2 with MPsTheScreamingEagles said:
Tory MPs control the first part of the process.rottenborough said:
And yet still 9 on BF.TheScreamingEagles said:
No, pretty much everyone thinks Boris is a ****.rottenborough said:More blue on blue. Have the whips told loyalists to attack Boris as he speaks?
Boris Johnson is unlikely to carry his immediate family.
Ignore the ConHome polls, members don't get to choose who the final two are.
Plus Boris the coward has a history of quitting when the going gets tough.
If May goes you likely get Boris. The only way to stop that is a Javid or Hunt coronation and the ERG would not allow that0 -
Think this is a shift, SNP coming out for straight up remain.0
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The more BINO the Brexit ironically the better for Boris as he can then lead the Brexiteer backlashrottenborough said:
As I say, an exhausted-looking Boris (to me at least) seems almost resigned to the outcome now.Scott_P said:0 -
FOM is potentially fixable, FSVO "fixable", along the lines of the IPPR's proposals: https://www.ippr.org/files/publications/pdf/free-movement-welfare_Nov2015.pdfNickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
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He looked a defeated man tonight with zest gone and under attack from fellow conservativesHYUFD said:
There are at least 80 Tory MPs who are staunch Brexiteers, if they get behind Boris they alone will ensure he gets to the final 2NickPalmer said:I don't mind the Norway option much - it works well enough for Norway! Thanks to Andy Cooke for his handy overview of it on the last thread. However, it preserves freedom of movement, and there's very strong evidence that FOM is the main thing that most Leavers were trying to escape. I can't see it standing up to serious scrutiny when people contemplate the potential backlash.
Boris is certainly toast in the Parliamentary party in terms of getting to the last 2. But if there's a split, I wonder if he might lead the Brexiteers - they would have a decent chance with him as he has universal recognition and a significant following. Compared with Farage, who IMO would not top 15%, he'd be a better bet to actually win seats.
Game over and even he knows it.
If he was even given a chance there would be defections. He is over0 -
I recognise this is ancient history by now, but can I offer a few thoughts on the AG's opinion this morning?
1) Obviously it's not binding on the CJEU, but...
2) Nobody really expected any sensible court to declare that a notice given under a treaty would be revocable unilaterally (if conditionally) where the treaty was silent on revocation;
3) But I had it at evens (betting market size £0) that the CJEU would so declare. If you didn't, you weren't paying attention in your EU law classes. Costa v ENEL (1964), Commission v France, (1997) Council v Commission, Factortame; it's all been going one way since 1964 - more power to the ECJ/CJEU, more power to the Commission, bad luck if you're a member state.
4) And the emphasis was on "(if conditionally)". The AG says that, a purported revocation of A50 would be binding on the Council if it were not an abusive practice, and not binding if it were abusive.
5) The decision, therefore, is now not the UK's. It is the ECJ's.
6) And the decision itself if a pretty poor piece of jurisprudence. It makes French judgments look good. The AG said that:
6.1) if A50 notice is unilateral, it is 'logical' that revocation is unilateral. Obviously, that's nonsense. There's no such logical step and a moment's thought will confirm this.
6.2) the Vienna Convention on treaties is a precedent, but the EU isn't a party and the TEU expressly excludes international law such as this. I could go on but I won't as I'm losing interest myself.
7) The Commission (once) and the EU parliament (at least thrice) have made their view clear that A50 isn't revocable. The deal is finalised, the balance of interests shifts, and all of a sudden the AG of the CJEU says the opposite; it is revocable. I'm sure it's just a coincidence, of course. The CJEU wouldn't be making decisions primarily in the interests of the EU institutions against the interests of Member States, would it?
Anyway, look forward to reading the other AG's full Brexit advice tomorrow...0 -
https://twitter.com/stephenkerrMP/status/1070049275604807682Pulpstar said:Think this is a shift, SNP coming out for straight up remain.
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Lidington is 100/1 with Betfred.rottenborough said:
Liddington is 65 on BFeek said:
Liddington if May leaves immediately and I suspect Gove when the party election finishes...kle4 said:
That's future PM Johnson, thank you.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Johnson bumbling around now. Quite the busted flush these days.
Actually I have no idea who the Tories could possibly choose. I've no doubt Hunt and Javid will twist to positions more pleasing to the membership once May goes next week, but the true believers still won't buy anything from them, Johnson seems to be very disliked by MPs, strong remainers are right out, so who? Contemptuous Cox? Come on.0
