politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely greater than 54%
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It is to be hoped they are not. It is to be hoped that they are infinitesimal!0
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Looks like the GOP are up to some nasty tricks in WI and MI to strip the new Dem Governors of power whilst they still control the government in those states. Thank goodness we don’t have the idiocy of lame duck sessions here.
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Out for 6 months by now and talking about something other than Brexit? Yes indeed the man is an idiot!0
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Err....not_on_fire said:Looks like the GOP are up to some nasty tricks in WI and MI to strip the new Dem Governors of power whilst they still control the government in those states. Thank goodness we don’t have the idiocy of lame duck sessions here.
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Fourth and falling fast, like Boris
Edit/ fifth already...0 -
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Ok, not *official* lame duck sessions....DavidL said:
Err....not_on_fire said:Looks like the GOP are up to some nasty tricks in WI and MI to strip the new Dem Governors of power whilst they still control the government in those states. Thank goodness we don’t have the idiocy of lame duck sessions here.
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Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Glenn, I'm enormously surprised by that ruling but it's got to put rocket-boosters under Remain MPs of various parties.
Edited extra bit: ah, does require full ruling though to become binding. But still helpful for Remainers in the Commons.0 -
Being out in name only, which is the reality of May’s deal, is meaningless and will please no one. All it will do is ensure Brexit continues to dominate politics, which seems inevitable now, rather than allowing us to get on with the rest of our lives. How could the Tories be so inept as to keep her as their leader.
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Thats an interesting development.0
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Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?0
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The only thing I'm sure of is that Brexit will continue to be news for the rest of my life.AmpfieldAndy said:Being out in name only, which is the reality of May’s deal, is meaningless and will please no one. All it will do is ensure Brexit continues to dominate politics, which seems inevitable now, rather than allowing us to get on with the rest of our lives. How could the Tories be so inept as to keep her as their leader.
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Time to withdraw A50 then reinvoke it?0
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FPT:
Yes, looking back our exit from the ERM was the firing of the starting gun on a decade and a half of unprecedented and uninterrupted economic growth.Charles said:
With hindsight it had proved to beRecidivist said:
I don't think Black Wednesday was self evidently the right thing to do.MarqueeMark said:
Unlikely. So many in Westminster don't want him. But if it gets to the members, I think he probably still gets it, as the standard bearer for Brexit. Would he really Hard Brexit? I'm not sure he would, when it came down to it. Not out of choice. He'd be looking for some compromise. But at least he would make efforts to achieve that better deal. Unlike May, who has gone as far as she wants - even if it is not as far as she needs.JosiasJessop said:
Do you really think Boris will be PM?
But I don't think he would shirk from delivering Brexit if he had to - once all the other options had fallen away. And I still wonder whether Hard Brexit might be the way to go. It has the benefit of starting the EU trade negotiations with a clean slate, rather than under the hideously compromised May deal. A trade arangement that could last decades. And there would no doubt be some initial economic hardship (although the death and famine doom will look to be ridiculously over-played when reality arrives).
But I do think - could it be a Black Wednesday Redux? Getting out of a European arrangement that initially caused economic mayhem, but proved self-evidently the right thing to do when it allowed the economy to power head. I could see Boris getting stuck in to deliver that. And at least the Tory MPs could remove him from Number 10 at a later date. The same can not be said if they have facilitated PM Corbyn.
At the time it was a balance between politics and economics with the politicians deciding in favour of politics
It was difficult for a short while, as things adjusted to the new normal, but the U.K. is full of resourceful people who soon worked out how to benefit from the changed arrangements.
Brexit has the potential to be the same, if only the politicians on all sides could see the opportunity staring them in the face and get behind leaving the EU. 90% of worldwide economic growth in the next decade is forecast to come from outside the EU.
*runs away*0 -
Mr. Slackbladder, no. My understanding, as asserted by Laura Kuenssberg and others, is that, as the rebate is not in any treaty, it can (and likely will) be phased out.
Schengen (Shengen?) and eurozone opt-outs are in treaties and would remain, ahem, if we were to stay in, but not if we were to rejoin.0 -
I would have thought so.Slackbladder said:Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?
Back to to status quo ante Article 50.0 -
> Also the Electoral Commission has declared that it needs 5 or 6 months notice for such a major vote to take place and that takes us to a late spring at the earliest.
I think this overstates the case a bit - they say they recommend 6 months, but they stress that it's not a legal requirement.
That said, I agree that it's getting too late for a referendum without an Article 50 extension. I think you can actually turn this on its head and say that it's an argument why TMay may have to agree to a referendum, even if she doesn't want to. If she wants to hang on to her job (seems in character), and she can't get her deal through parliament (it's looking a bit tricky) and the government hasn't done enough to prepare for No Deal (is hasn't) then she'll need the EU's permission to kick the can. And they'll only agree to that if there's something that might actually move things in a different direction: A general election (aargh) or a referendum.
Edit to add: ^ Post overtaken by events, apparently...0 -
Doubt it. Once its concluded it will drift away.Recidivist said:
The only thing I'm sure of is that Brexit will continue to be news for the rest of my life.AmpfieldAndy said:Being out in name only, which is the reality of May’s deal, is meaningless and will please no one. All it will do is ensure Brexit continues to dominate politics, which seems inevitable now, rather than allowing us to get on with the rest of our lives. How could the Tories be so inept as to keep her as their leader.
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Rebate expires in 2020 anyway. We would need to negotiate for it to be renewed.Slackbladder said:Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?
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Yes, no reason to play for a reasonable brexit at all. As Philip Thompson raises, if this is confirmed what is to stop a nation from notifying and withdrawing over and over.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Glenn, I'm enormously surprised by that ruling but it's got to put rocket-boosters under Remain MPs of various parties.
Edited extra bit: ah, does require full ruling though to become binding. But still helpful for Remainers in the Commons.
Brexit is dead. Remainers won't give up when they are so close and leavers won't unite behind anything to ensure it happens. As long as enough unite to stop no deal , brexit is now over and out.
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If thats the case, that utterly puts no-deal off the table. No PM would allow No-deal to happen if they have the power to stop it. Even if they planned for it, parliment would step in to forbide them.
Which means it's highly likely we're staying.0 -
Lol, so we can revoke Article 50 tomorrow, and then reinvoke it the day after?
Perhaps “revoke, royal commission to work out how we do it better the second time, reinvoke”0 -
As is usual in British political commentary, that's very inward looking. At a minimum that rather ignores the impact of the marketisation and growth of the Chinese economy. To give an indication, in 1997 Hong Kong made up around 18% of Chinese GDP. It's around 4% now and it's not as if its shrunk.Sandpit said:FPT:
Yes, looking back our exit from the ERM was the firing of the starting gun on a decade and a half of unprecedented and uninterrupted economic growth.Charles said:
With hindsight it had proved to beRecidivist said:
I don't think Black Wednesday was self evidently the right thing to do.MarqueeMark said:
Unlikely. So many in Westminster don't want him. But if it gets to the members, I think he probably still gets it, as the standard bearer for Brexit. Would he really Hard Brexit? I'm not sure he would, when it came down to it. Not out of choice. He'd be looking for some compromise. But at least he would make efforts to achieve that better deal. Unlike May, who has gone as far as she wants - even if it is not as far as she needs.JosiasJessop said:
Do you really think Boris will be PM?
But I don't think he would shirk from delivering Brexit if he had to - once all the other options had fallen away. And I still wonder whether Hard Brexit might be the way to go. It has the benefit of starting the EU trade negotiations with a clean slate, rather than under the hideously compromised May deal. A trade arangement that could last decades. And there would no doubt be some initial economic hardship (although the death and famine doom will look to be ridiculously over-played when reality arrives).
But I do think - could it be a Black Wednesday Redux? Getting out of a European arrangement that initially caused economic mayhem, but proved self-evidently the right thing to do when it allowed the economy to power head. I could see Boris getting stuck in to deliver that. And at least the Tory MPs could remove him from Number 10 at a later date. The same can not be said if they have facilitated PM Corbyn.
At the time it was a balance between politics and economics with the politicians deciding in favour of politics
It was difficult for a short while, as things adjusted to the new normal, but the U.K. is full of resourceful people who soon worked out how to benefit from the changed arrangements.
Brexit has the potential to be the same, if only the politicians on all sides could see the opportunity staring them in the face and get behind leaving the EU. 90% of worldwide economic growth in the next decade is forecast to come from outside the EU.
*runs away*0 -
OTOH the UK has a veto on that decision (along with everyone else), IIUCPhilip_Thompson said:
Rebate expires in 2020 anyway. We would need to negotiate for it to be renewed.Slackbladder said:Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?
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It will never be concludedPhilip_Thompson said:Doubt it. Once its concluded it will drift away.
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Give Boris and the Brexiteers two years to see what they can do.Philip_Thompson said:Time to withdraw A50 then reinvoke it?
Then have a second referendum: May or Boris's Deal.
Sorted.0 -
Seems like an unfortunately timed new thread header from OGH...0
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Pretty much. I voted leave, but this is now a situation which we need to get out of asap.kle4 said:
Brexit is dead. Remainers won't give up when they are so close and leavers won't unite behind anything to ensure it happens.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Glenn, I'm enormously surprised by that ruling but it's got to put rocket-boosters under Remain MPs of various parties.
Edited extra bit: ah, does require full ruling though to become binding. But still helpful for Remainers in the Commons.
If there's pressure to leave the EU again in the future, then we need to know exactly how we're doing it in the future. Not a leap into the dark.
I just hope there's a right-leaning sensible political party i can vote for after this, not a bunch of loons and fruitcases taking over the Tories
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Nah, you voted Leave meant the possibility of No Deal.Slackbladder said:If thats the case, that utterly puts no-deal off the table. No PM would allow No-deal to happen if they have the power to stop it. Even if they planned for it, parliment would step in to forbide them.
Which means it's highly likely we're staying.
Look at last night’s ComRes, the voters are prepared to an economic hit for Brexit.
Plus UKIP, now that they have confirmed they are the BNP/EDL in blazers will riot.
Most MPs will worry about suffering the same fate as Jo Cox if they revoke Brexit.
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...provided that the revocation has been decided upon in accordance with the Member State’s constitutional requirements, is formally notified to the European Council and does not involve an abusive practice.Scott_P said:0 -
So just ignoring the largest vote in British history?TheScreamingEagles said:
I would have thought so.Slackbladder said:Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?
Back to to status quo ante Article 50.0 -
Is this article taking into account the ECJ ruling ?0
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The obvious solution nobody is talking about.alex. said:Lol, so we can revoke Article 50 tomorrow, and then reinvoke it the day after?
Perhaps “revoke, royal commission to work out how we do it better the second time, reinvoke”0 -
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Barnier: *facepalm*0
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Hague: Brexiteers "are slowly heading towards defeating their own project"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/03/sorry-brexiteers-parliament-doesnt-want-no-deal-mps-will-kill/0 -
No. We have to Brexit next March.Charles said:
So just ignoring the largest vote in British history?TheScreamingEagles said:
I would have thought so.Slackbladder said:Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?
Back to to status quo ante Article 50.0 -
The people are keen for other people to take a hit. Have we heard at any stage that pensions or other state benefits will be reduced? The hit only applies to those who are employed.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, you voted Leave meant the possibility of No Deal.Slackbladder said:If thats the case, that utterly puts no-deal off the table. No PM would allow No-deal to happen if they have the power to stop it. Even if they planned for it, parliment would step in to forbide them.
Which means it's highly likely we're staying.
Look at last night’s ComRes, the voters are prepared to an economic hit for Brexit.
Plus UKIP, now that they have confirmed they are the BNP/EDL in blazers will riot.
Most MPs will worry about suffering the same fate as Jo Cox if they revoke Brexit.0 -
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So Labour pivot to Revoke - but will Corbyn?0
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And will the DUP?0
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Is it advisory?edmundintokyo said:Cautionary retweet:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1069871927915933696
*Innocent Face*0 -
“An abusive practice” presumably means revoking without the intention of remaining. So we could have a situation post March where the U.K. is at the ECJ arguing we haven’t left, and the European Council arguing we have...0
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Pretty much. Weird isn't it. Back in 2016 I couldn't see any way Brexit could be stopped. I hadn't reckoned with the stupidity of the leavers charged with implementing it.kle4 said:
Yes, no reason to play for a reasonable brexit at all. As Philip Thompson raises, if this is confirmed what is to stop a nation from notifying and withdrawing over and over.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Glenn, I'm enormously surprised by that ruling but it's got to put rocket-boosters under Remain MPs of various parties.
Edited extra bit: ah, does require full ruling though to become binding. But still helpful for Remainers in the Commons.
Brexit is dead. Remainers won't give up when they are so close and leavers won't unite behind anything to ensure it happens. As long as enough unite to stop no deal , brexit is now over and out.0 -
Last chance saloon for the Brexiteers. Do you really want no brexit or BINO? Previously remain vs no deal looked like the options but if this ruling is right we are not no dealing, not if senior government figures and practically every other non Tory mp is talking about rationing and stuff.
Remain or deal. I don't see the dup changing their minds and this ruling means no labour remainer rebels will, but maybe it'll sway a few previously against. Not enough though.0 -
We've tested the limits of direct democracy. It doesn't work terribly well when so many seem to be insulated from the consequences.Charles said:
So just ignoring the largest vote in British history?TheScreamingEagles said:
I would have thought so.Slackbladder said:Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?
Back to to status quo ante Article 50.
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Would parliament have a majority to do that? Presumably even if it has the rights to compel the PM to pull the lever it would still need to pass legislation, which in practice needs government support, etc etc.Slackbladder said:If thats the case, that utterly puts no-deal off the table. No PM would allow No-deal to happen if they have the power to stop it. Even if they planned for it, parliment would step in to forbide them.
Which means it's highly likely we're staying.0 -
This tweet delights me for so many reasons.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/zackpolanski/status/1069641592909250561?s=210 -
On topic: shhhhhhh.0
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For NOTME a new report on poverty..https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-20180
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Mervyn King really is a tosser.
Coughs *364 economists*
https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1069870056052535297?s=21
https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1069873061128744961?s=210 -
Probably. It will be very problematic. Some kind of vote may be sensible. But what to do? Leavers won't get anything through the commons and if this is right then parliament won't let us no deal.Charles said:
So just ignoring the largest vote in British history?TheScreamingEagles said:
I would have thought so.Slackbladder said:Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?
Back to to status quo ante Article 50.
If you don't want parliament to ignore the big vote there is a deal to leave on the table, get on to your old Etonian pals to take it.0 -
f the CJEU agrees with the AG it puts the UK in an immensely powerful position. We can revoke A50 having found out exactly how the EU27 would handle a withdrawal negotiation. That gives us a hell of a lot of leverage for the future if we use this knowledge properly.0
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Be interesting to see whether the odds shift on Ladbrokes (he says, hoping no second referendum lengthens to about 5 so he can be nicely green either way).0
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Yes but it's a surprising opinion which remainers will all assume the judges will agree with. Whether that's right is less relevant than how it makes them act.edmundintokyo said:Cautionary retweet:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/10698719279159336960 -
Presumably the EU will seek to amend A50 PDQ in light of this?0
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I hope Hague is right and HoC will use every single arcane procedure and twist to halt a No Deal Brexit, if May's plan falls.
Time to for MPs to step up to the plate and stop this madness in its tracks.0 -
“Abusive practice” = something the Commission doesn’t likewilliamglenn said:
...provided that the revocation has been decided upon in accordance with the Member State’s constitutional requirements, is formally notified to the European Council and does not involve an abusive practice.Scott_P said:0 -
don't we end in same place though?SouthamObserver said:f the CJEU agrees with the AG it puts the UK in an immensely powerful position. We can revoke A50 having found out exactly how the EU27 would handle a withdrawal negotiation. That gives us a hell of a lot of leverage for the future if we use this knowledge properly.
"backstop, backstop, Ireland, i hate customs unions, my unicorn is shiny etc etc etc"0 -
How long are we expecting until the actual judgement?kle4 said:
Yes but it's a surprising opinion which remainers will all assume the judges will agree with. Whether that's right is less relevant than how it makes them act.edmundintokyo said:Cautionary retweet:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/10698719279159336960 -
Maybe this is an elaborate ploy to allow the EU to bend on the negotiation point, give may a last ditch boost, since they wouldn't want that?SouthamObserver said:f the CJEU agrees with the AG it puts the UK in an immensely powerful position. We can revoke A50 having found out exactly how the EU27 would handle a withdrawal negotiation. That gives us a hell of a lot of leverage for the future if we use this knowledge properly.
Nah, too implausible.
Goodbye brexit, you're done. I hope the ERG truly believe inadequate brexit was not worth it otherwise they will soon be crying about this.0 -
Quite the opposite.matt said:
As is usual in British political commentary, that's very inward looking. At a minimum that rather ignores the impact of the marketisation and growth of the Chinese economy. To give an indication, in 1997 Hong Kong made up around 18% of Chinese GDP. It's around 4% now and it's not as if its shrunk.Sandpit said:FPT:
Yes, looking back our exit from the ERM was the firing of the starting gun on a decade and a half of unprecedented and uninterrupted economic growth.Charles said:
With hindsight it had proved to beRecidivist said:
I don't think Black Wednesday was self evidently the right thing to do.MarqueeMark said:
.JosiasJessop said:
Do you really think Boris will be PM?
At the time it was a balance between politics and economics with the politicians deciding in favour of politics
It was difficult for a short while, as things adjusted to the new normal, but the U.K. is full of resourceful people who soon worked out how to benefit from the changed arrangements.
Brexit has the potential to be the same, if only the politicians on all sides could see the opportunity staring them in the face and get behind leaving the EU. 90% of worldwide economic growth in the next decade is forecast to come from outside the EU.
*runs away*
The EU is inward-looking, protectionist (especially in agriculture), and spends years or even decades negotiating trade deals that go into excruciating detail on design of widgets - yet almost completely ignore financial services, intellectual property and developing technologies.
It’s a big wide world out there, and it’s growing massively compared to what’s going on in Europe, where the last recession is still being recovered from and many places still have huge unemployment.
(Looks out of window 3,500 miles away and counts 72 cranes in less than perfect visibility - on a good day it’s probably over a hundred)
The opportunity is massive and we have one chance to take it. Yes there will be some adjustment needed, and probably some temporary government intervention required in certain areas, but IMO the chance of success is too big to turn down.
A successful U.K. outside the EU terrifies the EU more than almost anything else, hence the way the negotiations have been played. Sadly our political leaders and their risk-averse civil servants have been taken along for the ride.0 -
It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.
We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.0 -
If Hague said that he should be ashamed of himself. Since when did Leave mean leave as long as it’s not on a no deal basis. If MPs wanted a better deal they should have been much more rigorous holding May to account and should have negotiated harder and obtained something worthwhile in the negotiations.rottenborough said:I hope Hague is right and HoC will use every single arcane procedure and twist to halt a No Deal Brexit, if May's plan falls.
Time to for MPs to step up to the plate and stop this madness in its tracks.0 -
Could a court revoke A50. Or the Scottish parliament ??
I think not buy just checking0 -
I have used the useful flow chart from the FT showing the various possible outcomes.
https://www.ft.com/content/6ab20026-f71c-11e8-8b7c-6fa24bd5409c
I've honestly tried to put my best unbiased probabilities on this. The result is:
May's deal goes through 47% (made up of 20% passed first time, 16% passed second time after a tweak with the EU, 15% as a result of a second referendum - probability 36% of this happening).
Norway+ deal 15% (as a result of parliament successfully getting an A50 extension and going for this option rather than a second referendum)
No Brexit 22% (as a result of defeat of May's deal at first or second attempt 64% X UK asks for A50 extension 80% X Parliament agrees 2nd referendum 70% X No Brexit wins 60%)
No Deal 16% (made up of 13% Parliament opts for a managed no deal plus 3% as a result of a second referendum)
The probability of May's deal going through at first or second attempt in time for 29 March is 36%. If it doesn't go through, there is a 13% chance of a no deal - probably with a small extension for mini agreement to lesson the blow and a 51% chance of an agreed extension to A50.
So I think the chances of the UK leaving the EU on 29th March are surely less than 54%. I certainly wouldn't bet on it.0 -
Hague seems to be saying this morning that without a working majority on this issue, Parliament can affectively stop the working of government completely by all sorts of parliamentary devices. MPs would/could block a No Deal.edmundintokyo said:
Would parliament have a majority to do that? Presumably even if it has the rights to compel the PM to pull the lever it would still need to pass legislation, which in practice needs government support, etc etc.Slackbladder said:If thats the case, that utterly puts no-deal off the table. No PM would allow No-deal to happen if they have the power to stop it. Even if they planned for it, parliment would step in to forbide them.
Which means it's highly likely we're staying.0 -
The EU27 will hate it, too.AlastairMeeks said:It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.
We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.
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I think it helps Mrs May with Leavers.AlastairMeeks said:It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.
We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.
Back my deal or the House will vote to revoke A50.0 -
I am currently in Shanghai. It's the last day of a two-day event my company has organised here. We got 450 delegates, 70% of them from Asia-Pacific countries. The EU has not prevented us from holding it and generating large sponsorship and delegate fees in any way, shape or form.Sandpit said:
Quite the opposite.matt said:
As is usual in British political commentary, that's very inward looking. At a minimum that rather ignores the impact of the marketisation and growth of the Chinese economy. To give an indication, in 1997 Hong Kong made up around 18% of Chinese GDP. It's around 4% now and it's not as if its shrunk.Sandpit said:FPT:
Yes, looking back our exit from the ERM was the firing of the starting gun on a decade and a half of unprecedented and uninterrupted economic growth.Charles said:
With hindsight it had proved to beRecidivist said:
I don't think Black Wednesday was self evidently the right thing to do.MarqueeMark said:
.JosiasJessop said:
Do you really think Boris will be PM?
At the time it was a balance between politics and economics with the politicians deciding in favour of politics
It was difficult for a short while, as things adjusted to the new normal, but the U.K. is full of resourceful people who soon worked out how to benefit from the changed arrangements.
Brexit has tthe EU. 90% of worldwide economic growth in the next decade is forecast to come from outside the EU.
*runs away*
The EU is inward-looking, protectionist (especially in agriculture), and spends years or even decades negotiating trade deals that go into excruciating detail on design of widgets - yet almost completely ignore financial services, intellectual property and developing technologies.
It’s a big wide world out there, and it’s growing massively compared to what’s going on in Europe, where the last recession is still being recovered from and many places still have huge unemployment.
(Looks out of window 3,500 miles away and counts 72 cranes in less than perfect visibility - on a good day it’s probably over a hundred)
The opportunity is massive and we have one chance to take it. Yes there will be some adjustment needed, and probably some temporary government intervention required in certain areas, but IMO the chance of success is too big to turn down.
A successful U.K. outside the EU terrifies the EU more than almost anything else, hence the way the negotiations have been played. Sadly our political leaders and their risk-averse civil servants have been taken along for the ride.
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Then let's see if they decide the backstop is not necessary after all, that's the best chance of us leaving now. But throwing Ireland under the bus like that, would they do it? They've been very insistent on that backstop.SouthamObserver said:
The EU27 will hate it, too.AlastairMeeks said:It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.
We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.0 -
Salvini will be noting the judgement with interest I expect.0
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Mr. Observer, disagree. The political class is pro-EU and it would take a hell of a lot for them to flirt with the possibility of the proletariat having wrong opinions again.0
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Or not...TheScreamingEagles said:
No. We have to Brexit next March.Charles said:
So just ignoring the largest vote in British history?TheScreamingEagles said:
I would have thought so.Slackbladder said:Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?
Back to to status quo ante Article 50.
And it does make a second referendum actually doable within the timeframe (though not overwhelmingly likely).0 -
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1069860244157841409TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it helps Mrs May with Leavers.AlastairMeeks said:It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.
We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.
Back my deal or the House will vote to revoke A50.0 -
They were insistent as they knew we would fold so they could insist. No other reason.kle4 said:
Then let's see if they decide the backstop is not necessary after all, that's the best chance of us leaving now. But throwing Ireland under the bus like that, would they do it? They've been very insistent on that backstop.SouthamObserver said:
The EU27 will hate it, too.AlastairMeeks said:It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.
We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.
Initially it wasn't even there! It only got added in after they realised how week May was and they could get away with it.0 -
This (potentially) completely solves the second referendum question.
Should we revoke Article 50?
Yes
No0 -
I'm not a trade expert or anything but this doesn't seem to square with anything I've heard about the actual trade deals the EU is signing - for example, this is the IP section in the EU-Japan deal:Sandpit said:
The EU is inward-looking, protectionist (especially in agriculture), and spends years or even decades negotiating trade deals that go into excruciating detail on design of widgets - yet almost completely ignore financial services, intellectual property and developing technologies.
http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2018/august/tradoc_157228.pdf#page=361
Also not seeing the excruciating widget design details in there, maybe they're included by a reference to some other agreement or something???0 -
Not enough leavers to get the deal through the house. And labour are 1 step from being the remain party so will continue to say they want all options open not this deal. Any Tory switching would be admitting they fear remain would win if they don't agree. And Tory remainers, some, will vote against.TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it helps Mrs May with Leavers.AlastairMeeks said:It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.
We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.
Back my deal or the House will vote to revoke A50.
So the deal still isn't happening.0 -
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Andrew Lilico is one of those Brexiteers that has been driven insane.williamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1069860244157841409TheScreamingEagles said:
I think it helps Mrs May with Leavers.AlastairMeeks said:It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.
We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.
Back my deal or the House will vote to revoke A50.
He prefers a Corbyn government if Mrs May doesn’t deliver the precise Brexit Lilico wants.0 -
https://twitter.com/jlsinc/status/1069876887000883200TheScreamingEagles said:Andrew Lilico is one of those Brexiteers that has been driven insane.
He prefers a Corbyn government if Mrs May doesn’t deliver the precise Brexit Lilico wants.0 -
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And referendums in Ireland and Denmark, potentially???Nigelb said:
Would that require unanimity ?tlg86 said:Presumably the EU will seek to amend A50 PDQ in light of this?
But I don't see why they'd want to, as long as the "no fucking around" clause is in there to stop people revoking Article 50 when they intend to remain. It's not like the rest of the EU is massively jealous of the UK for the chance to take part in excruciating, all-consuming negotiations while the EU agencies relocate and the rest of the EU makes its decisions without them.0 -
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Mr. Pulpstar, Twitter yesterday reckoned Salvini had caved in to EU threats of a fine and will amend the Italian spending plans accordingly.0
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Ladbrokes: odds down just a smidge on another referendum (2.37 to 2.25, with no second referendum before the end of 2019 lengthening from 1.53 to 1.57).
Be interesting to see if weight of money causes a bigger shift.
Right now, you can get 4 and 4.5 on a second referendum Remain or Leave vote, respectively, but if the referendum's more complicated than that it could throw up potential problems.0 -
Actually May's Deal leaves the EU and ends free movement. As Deltapoll showed voters prefer that head to head to Remain or No Deal.AmpfieldAndy said:Being out in name only, which is the reality of May’s deal, is meaningless and will please no one. All it will do is ensure Brexit continues to dominate politics, which seems inevitable now, rather than allowing us to get on with the rest of our lives. How could the Tories be so inept as to keep her as their leader.
If you really want Brexit in name only try permanent Single Market and Customs Union which may be what we end up with if the Deal is voted down or under PM Corbyn0 -
I'd put remain at 75% chance now. There's procedural issues to work out but unless 100 people change their minds on the deal the path has gotten much easier.Morris_Dancer said:Ladbrokes: odds down just a smidge on another referendum (2.37 to 2.25, with no second referendum before the end of 2019 lengthening from 1.53 to 1.57).
Be interesting to see if weight of money causes a bigger shift.
Right now, you can get 4 and 4.5 on a second referendum Remain or Leave vote, respectively, but if the referendum's more complicated than that it could throw up potential problems.0 -
There needs to be two changes in the law for Remain, how do you see that happening?kle4 said:
I'd put remain at 75% chance now. There's procedural issues to work out but unless 100 people change their minds on the deal the path has gotten much easier.Morris_Dancer said:Ladbrokes: odds down just a smidge on another referendum (2.37 to 2.25, with no second referendum before the end of 2019 lengthening from 1.53 to 1.57).
Be interesting to see if weight of money causes a bigger shift.
Right now, you can get 4 and 4.5 on a second referendum Remain or Leave vote, respectively, but if the referendum's more complicated than that it could throw up potential problems.0
