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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely

SystemSystem Posts: 12,173
edited December 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely greater than 54%

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    It is to be hoped they are not. It is to be hoped that they are infinitesimal!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited December 2018
    Looks like the GOP are up to some nasty tricks in WI and MI to strip the new Dem Governors of power whilst they still control the government in those states. Thank goodness we don’t have the idiocy of lame duck sessions here.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,884
    Out for 6 months by now and talking about something other than Brexit? Yes indeed the man is an idiot!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,884
    not_on_fire said:

    Looks like the GOP are up to some nasty tricks in WI and MI to strip the new Dem Governors of power whilst they still control the government in those states. Thank goodness we don’t have the idiocy of lame duck sessions here.

    Err....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743
    https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/1069867365897306112?s=21
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    edited December 2018
    Fourth and falling fast, like Boris

    Edit/ fifth already...
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/1069867365897306112?s=21

    Wow
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    DavidL said:

    not_on_fire said:

    Looks like the GOP are up to some nasty tricks in WI and MI to strip the new Dem Governors of power whilst they still control the government in those states. Thank goodness we don’t have the idiocy of lame duck sessions here.

    Err....
    Ok, not *official* lame duck sessions....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/status/1069868266775035906
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    edited December 2018
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Glenn, I'm enormously surprised by that ruling but it's got to put rocket-boosters under Remain MPs of various parties.

    Edited extra bit: ah, does require full ruling though to become binding. But still helpful for Remainers in the Commons.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    Being out in name only, which is the reality of May’s deal, is meaningless and will please no one. All it will do is ensure Brexit continues to dominate politics, which seems inevitable now, rather than allowing us to get on with the rest of our lives. How could the Tories be so inept as to keep her as their leader.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Thats an interesting development.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Being out in name only, which is the reality of May’s deal, is meaningless and will please no one. All it will do is ensure Brexit continues to dominate politics, which seems inevitable now, rather than allowing us to get on with the rest of our lives. How could the Tories be so inept as to keep her as their leader.

    The only thing I'm sure of is that Brexit will continue to be news for the rest of my life.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Time to withdraw A50 then reinvoke it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    FPT:
    Charles said:

    Recidivist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    JosiasJessop said:


    Do you really think Boris will be PM?

    Unlikely. So many in Westminster don't want him. But if it gets to the members, I think he probably still gets it, as the standard bearer for Brexit. Would he really Hard Brexit? I'm not sure he would, when it came down to it. Not out of choice. He'd be looking for some compromise. But at least he would make efforts to achieve that better deal. Unlike May, who has gone as far as she wants - even if it is not as far as she needs.

    But I don't think he would shirk from delivering Brexit if he had to - once all the other options had fallen away. And I still wonder whether Hard Brexit might be the way to go. It has the benefit of starting the EU trade negotiations with a clean slate, rather than under the hideously compromised May deal. A trade arangement that could last decades. And there would no doubt be some initial economic hardship (although the death and famine doom will look to be ridiculously over-played when reality arrives).

    But I do think - could it be a Black Wednesday Redux? Getting out of a European arrangement that initially caused economic mayhem, but proved self-evidently the right thing to do when it allowed the economy to power head. I could see Boris getting stuck in to deliver that. And at least the Tory MPs could remove him from Number 10 at a later date. The same can not be said if they have facilitated PM Corbyn.
    I don't think Black Wednesday was self evidently the right thing to do.
    With hindsight it had proved to be

    At the time it was a balance between politics and economics with the politicians deciding in favour of politics
    Yes, looking back our exit from the ERM was the firing of the starting gun on a decade and a half of unprecedented and uninterrupted economic growth.

    It was difficult for a short while, as things adjusted to the new normal, but the U.K. is full of resourceful people who soon worked out how to benefit from the changed arrangements.

    Brexit has the potential to be the same, if only the politicians on all sides could see the opportunity staring them in the face and get behind leaving the EU. 90% of worldwide economic growth in the next decade is forecast to come from outside the EU.

    *runs away*
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Slackbladder, no. My understanding, as asserted by Laura Kuenssberg and others, is that, as the rebate is not in any treaty, it can (and likely will) be phased out.

    Schengen (Shengen?) and eurozone opt-outs are in treaties and would remain, ahem, if we were to stay in, but not if we were to rejoin.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edited December 2018
    Slackbladder said:

    Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?

    I would have thought so.

    Back to to status quo ante Article 50.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited December 2018
    > Also the Electoral Commission has declared that it needs 5 or 6 months notice for such a major vote to take place and that takes us to a late spring at the earliest.

    I think this overstates the case a bit - they say they recommend 6 months, but they stress that it's not a legal requirement.

    That said, I agree that it's getting too late for a referendum without an Article 50 extension. I think you can actually turn this on its head and say that it's an argument why TMay may have to agree to a referendum, even if she doesn't want to. If she wants to hang on to her job (seems in character), and she can't get her deal through parliament (it's looking a bit tricky) and the government hasn't done enough to prepare for No Deal (is hasn't) then she'll need the EU's permission to kick the can. And they'll only agree to that if there's something that might actually move things in a different direction: A general election (aargh) or a referendum.

    Edit to add: ^ Post overtaken by events, apparently...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Recidivist said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Being out in name only, which is the reality of May’s deal, is meaningless and will please no one. All it will do is ensure Brexit continues to dominate politics, which seems inevitable now, rather than allowing us to get on with the rest of our lives. How could the Tories be so inept as to keep her as their leader.

    The only thing I'm sure of is that Brexit will continue to be news for the rest of my life.
    Doubt it. Once its concluded it will drift away.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Slackbladder said:

    Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?

    Rebate expires in 2020 anyway. We would need to negotiate for it to be renewed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,171
    edited December 2018
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Glenn, I'm enormously surprised by that ruling but it's got to put rocket-boosters under Remain MPs of various parties.

    Edited extra bit: ah, does require full ruling though to become binding. But still helpful for Remainers in the Commons.

    Yes, no reason to play for a reasonable brexit at all. As Philip Thompson raises, if this is confirmed what is to stop a nation from notifying and withdrawing over and over.

    Brexit is dead. Remainers won't give up when they are so close and leavers won't unite behind anything to ensure it happens. As long as enough unite to stop no deal , brexit is now over and out.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    If thats the case, that utterly puts no-deal off the table. No PM would allow No-deal to happen if they have the power to stop it. Even if they planned for it, parliment would step in to forbide them.

    Which means it's highly likely we're staying.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Lol, so we can revoke Article 50 tomorrow, and then reinvoke it the day after?

    Perhaps “revoke, royal commission to work out how we do it better the second time, reinvoke”
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    Recidivist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    JosiasJessop said:


    Do you really think Boris will be PM?

    Unlikely. So many in Westminster don't want him. But if it gets to the members, I think he probably still gets it, as the standard bearer for Brexit. Would he really Hard Brexit? I'm not sure he would, when it came down to it. Not out of choice. He'd be looking for some compromise. But at least he would make efforts to achieve that better deal. Unlike May, who has gone as far as she wants - even if it is not as far as she needs.

    But I don't think he would shirk from delivering Brexit if he had to - once all the other options had fallen away. And I still wonder whether Hard Brexit might be the way to go. It has the benefit of starting the EU trade negotiations with a clean slate, rather than under the hideously compromised May deal. A trade arangement that could last decades. And there would no doubt be some initial economic hardship (although the death and famine doom will look to be ridiculously over-played when reality arrives).

    But I do think - could it be a Black Wednesday Redux? Getting out of a European arrangement that initially caused economic mayhem, but proved self-evidently the right thing to do when it allowed the economy to power head. I could see Boris getting stuck in to deliver that. And at least the Tory MPs could remove him from Number 10 at a later date. The same can not be said if they have facilitated PM Corbyn.
    I don't think Black Wednesday was self evidently the right thing to do.
    With hindsight it had proved to be

    At the time it was a balance between politics and economics with the politicians deciding in favour of politics
    Yes, looking back our exit from the ERM was the firing of the starting gun on a decade and a half of unprecedented and uninterrupted economic growth.

    It was difficult for a short while, as things adjusted to the new normal, but the U.K. is full of resourceful people who soon worked out how to benefit from the changed arrangements.

    Brexit has the potential to be the same, if only the politicians on all sides could see the opportunity staring them in the face and get behind leaving the EU. 90% of worldwide economic growth in the next decade is forecast to come from outside the EU.

    *runs away*
    As is usual in British political commentary, that's very inward looking. At a minimum that rather ignores the impact of the marketisation and growth of the Chinese economy. To give an indication, in 1997 Hong Kong made up around 18% of Chinese GDP. It's around 4% now and it's not as if its shrunk.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?

    Rebate expires in 2020 anyway. We would need to negotiate for it to be renewed.
    OTOH the UK has a veto on that decision (along with everyone else), IIUC
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/andywightman/status/1069870756862062593
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Doubt it. Once its concluded it will drift away.

    It will never be concluded
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Time to withdraw A50 then reinvoke it?

    Give Boris and the Brexiteers two years to see what they can do.

    Then have a second referendum: May or Boris's Deal.

    Sorted.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Seems like an unfortunately timed new thread header from OGH...
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    kle4 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Glenn, I'm enormously surprised by that ruling but it's got to put rocket-boosters under Remain MPs of various parties.

    Edited extra bit: ah, does require full ruling though to become binding. But still helpful for Remainers in the Commons.

    Brexit is dead. Remainers won't give up when they are so close and leavers won't unite behind anything to ensure it happens.
    Pretty much. I voted leave, but this is now a situation which we need to get out of asap.

    If there's pressure to leave the EU again in the future, then we need to know exactly how we're doing it in the future. Not a leap into the dark.

    I just hope there's a right-leaning sensible political party i can vote for after this, not a bunch of loons and fruitcases taking over the Tories

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Slackbladder said:

    If thats the case, that utterly puts no-deal off the table. No PM would allow No-deal to happen if they have the power to stop it. Even if they planned for it, parliment would step in to forbide them.

    Which means it's highly likely we're staying.

    Nah, you voted Leave meant the possibility of No Deal.

    Look at last night’s ComRes, the voters are prepared to an economic hit for Brexit.

    Plus UKIP, now that they have confirmed they are the BNP/EDL in blazers will riot.

    Most MPs will worry about suffering the same fate as Jo Cox if they revoke Brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/andywightman/status/1069870756862062593

    ...provided that the revocation has been decided upon in accordance with the Member State’s constitutional requirements, is formally notified to the European Council and does not involve an abusive practice.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?

    I would have thought so.

    Back to to status quo ante Article 50.
    So just ignoring the largest vote in British history?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Is this article taking into account the ECJ ruling ?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    alex. said:

    Lol, so we can revoke Article 50 tomorrow, and then reinvoke it the day after?

    Perhaps “revoke, royal commission to work out how we do it better the second time, reinvoke”

    The obvious solution nobody is talking about.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    Barnier: *facepalm*
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Cautionary retweet:

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1069871927915933696
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    Hague: Brexiteers "are slowly heading towards defeating their own project"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/03/sorry-brexiteers-parliament-doesnt-want-no-deal-mps-will-kill/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?

    I would have thought so.

    Back to to status quo ante Article 50.
    So just ignoring the largest vote in British history?
    No. We have to Brexit next March.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    If thats the case, that utterly puts no-deal off the table. No PM would allow No-deal to happen if they have the power to stop it. Even if they planned for it, parliment would step in to forbide them.

    Which means it's highly likely we're staying.

    Nah, you voted Leave meant the possibility of No Deal.

    Look at last night’s ComRes, the voters are prepared to an economic hit for Brexit.

    Plus UKIP, now that they have confirmed they are the BNP/EDL in blazers will riot.

    Most MPs will worry about suffering the same fate as Jo Cox if they revoke Brexit.
    The people are keen for other people to take a hit. Have we heard at any stage that pensions or other state benefits will be reduced? The hit only applies to those who are employed.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1069872060288131072
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    So Labour pivot to Revoke - but will Corbyn?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    And will the DUP?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    edmundintokyo said:

    Cautionary retweet:

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1069871927915933696

    Is it advisory?

    *Innocent Face*
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    “An abusive practice” presumably means revoking without the intention of remaining. So we could have a situation post March where the U.K. is at the ECJ arguing we haven’t left, and the European Council arguing we have...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Glenn, I'm enormously surprised by that ruling but it's got to put rocket-boosters under Remain MPs of various parties.

    Edited extra bit: ah, does require full ruling though to become binding. But still helpful for Remainers in the Commons.

    Yes, no reason to play for a reasonable brexit at all. As Philip Thompson raises, if this is confirmed what is to stop a nation from notifying and withdrawing over and over.

    Brexit is dead. Remainers won't give up when they are so close and leavers won't unite behind anything to ensure it happens. As long as enough unite to stop no deal , brexit is now over and out.
    Pretty much. Weird isn't it. Back in 2016 I couldn't see any way Brexit could be stopped. I hadn't reckoned with the stupidity of the leavers charged with implementing it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,171
    Last chance saloon for the Brexiteers. Do you really want no brexit or BINO? Previously remain vs no deal looked like the options but if this ruling is right we are not no dealing, not if senior government figures and practically every other non Tory mp is talking about rationing and stuff.

    Remain or deal. I don't see the dup changing their minds and this ruling means no labour remainer rebels will, but maybe it'll sway a few previously against. Not enough though.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?

    I would have thought so.

    Back to to status quo ante Article 50.
    So just ignoring the largest vote in British history?
    We've tested the limits of direct democracy. It doesn't work terribly well when so many seem to be insulated from the consequences.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Slackbladder said:

    If thats the case, that utterly puts no-deal off the table. No PM would allow No-deal to happen if they have the power to stop it. Even if they planned for it, parliment would step in to forbide them.

    Which means it's highly likely we're staying.

    Would parliament have a majority to do that? Presumably even if it has the rights to compel the PM to pull the lever it would still need to pass legislation, which in practice needs government support, etc etc.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1069872060288131072

    This tweet delights me for so many reasons.

    https://twitter.com/zackpolanski/status/1069641592909250561?s=21
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On topic: shhhhhhh.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1069872720224141314
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    For NOTME a new report on poverty..https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/uk-poverty-2018
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    Mervyn King really is a tosser.

    Coughs *364 economists*

    https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1069870056052535297?s=21
    https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1069873061128744961?s=21
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,171
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?

    I would have thought so.

    Back to to status quo ante Article 50.
    So just ignoring the largest vote in British history?
    Probably. It will be very problematic. Some kind of vote may be sensible. But what to do? Leavers won't get anything through the commons and if this is right then parliament won't let us no deal.

    If you don't want parliament to ignore the big vote there is a deal to leave on the table, get on to your old Etonian pals to take it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    f the CJEU agrees with the AG it puts the UK in an immensely powerful position. We can revoke A50 having found out exactly how the EU27 would handle a withdrawal negotiation. That gives us a hell of a lot of leverage for the future if we use this knowledge properly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Be interesting to see whether the odds shift on Ladbrokes (he says, hoping no second referendum lengthens to about 5 so he can be nicely green either way).
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,171
    edmundintokyo said:

    Cautionary retweet:

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1069871927915933696

    Yes but it's a surprising opinion which remainers will all assume the judges will agree with. Whether that's right is less relevant than how it makes them act.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Presumably the EU will seek to amend A50 PDQ in light of this?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    I hope Hague is right and HoC will use every single arcane procedure and twist to halt a No Deal Brexit, if May's plan falls.

    Time to for MPs to step up to the plate and stop this madness in its tracks.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    williamglenn said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/andywightman/status/1069870756862062593

    ...provided that the revocation has been decided upon in accordance with the Member State’s constitutional requirements, is formally notified to the European Council and does not involve an abusive practice.
    “Abusive practice” = something the Commission doesn’t like
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1069869181057798144
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    SouthamObserver said:

    f the CJEU agrees with the AG it puts the UK in an immensely powerful position. We can revoke A50 having found out exactly how the EU27 would handle a withdrawal negotiation. That gives us a hell of a lot of leverage for the future if we use this knowledge properly.

    don't we end in same place though?

    "backstop, backstop, Ireland, i hate customs unions, my unicorn is shiny etc etc etc"
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    kle4 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Cautionary retweet:

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1069871927915933696

    Yes but it's a surprising opinion which remainers will all assume the judges will agree with. Whether that's right is less relevant than how it makes them act.
    How long are we expecting until the actual judgement?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,171
    SouthamObserver said:

    f the CJEU agrees with the AG it puts the UK in an immensely powerful position. We can revoke A50 having found out exactly how the EU27 would handle a withdrawal negotiation. That gives us a hell of a lot of leverage for the future if we use this knowledge properly.

    Maybe this is an elaborate ploy to allow the EU to bend on the negotiation point, give may a last ditch boost, since they wouldn't want that?

    Nah, too implausible.

    Goodbye brexit, you're done. I hope the ERG truly believe inadequate brexit was not worth it otherwise they will soon be crying about this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    matt said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    Recidivist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    JosiasJessop said:


    Do you really think Boris will be PM?

    .
    I don't think Black Wednesday was self evidently the right thing to do.
    With hindsight it had proved to be

    At the time it was a balance between politics and economics with the politicians deciding in favour of politics
    Yes, looking back our exit from the ERM was the firing of the starting gun on a decade and a half of unprecedented and uninterrupted economic growth.

    It was difficult for a short while, as things adjusted to the new normal, but the U.K. is full of resourceful people who soon worked out how to benefit from the changed arrangements.

    Brexit has the potential to be the same, if only the politicians on all sides could see the opportunity staring them in the face and get behind leaving the EU. 90% of worldwide economic growth in the next decade is forecast to come from outside the EU.

    *runs away*
    As is usual in British political commentary, that's very inward looking. At a minimum that rather ignores the impact of the marketisation and growth of the Chinese economy. To give an indication, in 1997 Hong Kong made up around 18% of Chinese GDP. It's around 4% now and it's not as if its shrunk.
    Quite the opposite.

    The EU is inward-looking, protectionist (especially in agriculture), and spends years or even decades negotiating trade deals that go into excruciating detail on design of widgets - yet almost completely ignore financial services, intellectual property and developing technologies.

    It’s a big wide world out there, and it’s growing massively compared to what’s going on in Europe, where the last recession is still being recovered from and many places still have huge unemployment.

    (Looks out of window 3,500 miles away and counts 72 cranes in less than perfect visibility - on a good day it’s probably over a hundred)

    The opportunity is massive and we have one chance to take it. Yes there will be some adjustment needed, and probably some temporary government intervention required in certain areas, but IMO the chance of success is too big to turn down.

    A successful U.K. outside the EU terrifies the EU more than almost anything else, hence the way the negotiations have been played. Sadly our political leaders and their risk-averse civil servants have been taken along for the ride.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.

    We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Could a court revoke A50. Or the Scottish parliament ??

    I think not buy just checking
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    rottenborough said:

    I hope Hague is right and HoC will use every single arcane procedure and twist to halt a No Deal Brexit, if May's plan falls.

    Time to for MPs to step up to the plate and stop this madness in its tracks.

    If Hague said that he should be ashamed of himself. Since when did Leave mean leave as long as it’s not on a no deal basis. If MPs wanted a better deal they should have been much more rigorous holding May to account and should have negotiated harder and obtained something worthwhile in the negotiations.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    edited December 2018
    I have used the useful flow chart from the FT showing the various possible outcomes.

    https://www.ft.com/content/6ab20026-f71c-11e8-8b7c-6fa24bd5409c

    I've honestly tried to put my best unbiased probabilities on this. The result is:

    May's deal goes through 47% (made up of 20% passed first time, 16% passed second time after a tweak with the EU, 15% as a result of a second referendum - probability 36% of this happening).

    Norway+ deal 15%     (as a result of parliament successfully getting an A50 extension and going for this option rather than a second referendum)

    No Brexit 22% (as a result of defeat of May's deal at first or second attempt 64% X UK asks for A50 extension 80% X Parliament agrees 2nd referendum 70% X No Brexit wins 60%)

    No Deal 16% (made up of 13% Parliament opts for a managed no deal plus 3% as a result of a second referendum)

    The probability of May's deal going through at first or second attempt in time for 29 March is 36%. If it doesn't go through, there is a 13% chance of a no deal - probably with a small extension for mini agreement to lesson the blow and a 51% chance of an agreed extension to A50.

    So I think the chances of the UK leaving the EU on 29th March are surely less than 54%. I certainly wouldn't bet on it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    edmundintokyo said:

    Slackbladder said:

    If thats the case, that utterly puts no-deal off the table. No PM would allow No-deal to happen if they have the power to stop it. Even if they planned for it, parliment would step in to forbide them.

    Which means it's highly likely we're staying.

    Would parliament have a majority to do that? Presumably even if it has the rights to compel the PM to pull the lever it would still need to pass legislation, which in practice needs government support, etc etc.
    Hague seems to be saying this morning that without a working majority on this issue, Parliament can affectively stop the working of government completely by all sorts of parliamentary devices. MPs would/could block a No Deal.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.

    We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.

    The EU27 will hate it, too.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.

    We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.

    I think it helps Mrs May with Leavers.

    Back my deal or the House will vote to revoke A50.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Sandpit said:

    matt said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    Charles said:

    Recidivist said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    JosiasJessop said:


    Do you really think Boris will be PM?

    .
    I don't think Black Wednesday was self evidently the right thing to do.
    With hindsight it had proved to be

    At the time it was a balance between politics and economics with the politicians deciding in favour of politics
    Yes, looking back our exit from the ERM was the firing of the starting gun on a decade and a half of unprecedented and uninterrupted economic growth.

    It was difficult for a short while, as things adjusted to the new normal, but the U.K. is full of resourceful people who soon worked out how to benefit from the changed arrangements.

    Brexit has tthe EU. 90% of worldwide economic growth in the next decade is forecast to come from outside the EU.

    *runs away*
    As is usual in British political commentary, that's very inward looking. At a minimum that rather ignores the impact of the marketisation and growth of the Chinese economy. To give an indication, in 1997 Hong Kong made up around 18% of Chinese GDP. It's around 4% now and it's not as if its shrunk.
    Quite the opposite.

    The EU is inward-looking, protectionist (especially in agriculture), and spends years or even decades negotiating trade deals that go into excruciating detail on design of widgets - yet almost completely ignore financial services, intellectual property and developing technologies.

    It’s a big wide world out there, and it’s growing massively compared to what’s going on in Europe, where the last recession is still being recovered from and many places still have huge unemployment.

    (Looks out of window 3,500 miles away and counts 72 cranes in less than perfect visibility - on a good day it’s probably over a hundred)

    The opportunity is massive and we have one chance to take it. Yes there will be some adjustment needed, and probably some temporary government intervention required in certain areas, but IMO the chance of success is too big to turn down.

    A successful U.K. outside the EU terrifies the EU more than almost anything else, hence the way the negotiations have been played. Sadly our political leaders and their risk-averse civil servants have been taken along for the ride.

    I am currently in Shanghai. It's the last day of a two-day event my company has organised here. We got 450 delegates, 70% of them from Asia-Pacific countries. The EU has not prevented us from holding it and generating large sponsorship and delegate fees in any way, shape or form.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,171
    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.

    We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.

    The EU27 will hate it, too.

    Then let's see if they decide the backstop is not necessary after all, that's the best chance of us leaving now. But throwing Ireland under the bus like that, would they do it? They've been very insistent on that backstop.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Salvini will be noting the judgement with interest I expect.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Observer, disagree. The political class is pro-EU and it would take a hell of a lot for them to flirt with the possibility of the proletariat having wrong opinions again.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,287
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Presumably if we were to 'cancel' Brexit, that would mean exactly the same rights as currently, ie, we keep the rebate?

    I would have thought so.

    Back to to status quo ante Article 50.
    So just ignoring the largest vote in British history?
    No. We have to Brexit next March.
    Or not...

    And it does make a second referendum actually doable within the timeframe (though not overwhelmingly likely).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1069872613504245760
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,743
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.

    We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.

    I think it helps Mrs May with Leavers.

    Back my deal or the House will vote to revoke A50.
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1069860244157841409
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.

    We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.

    The EU27 will hate it, too.

    Then let's see if they decide the backstop is not necessary after all, that's the best chance of us leaving now. But throwing Ireland under the bus like that, would they do it? They've been very insistent on that backstop.
    They were insistent as they knew we would fold so they could insist. No other reason.

    Initially it wasn't even there! It only got added in after they realised how week May was and they could get away with it.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This (potentially) completely solves the second referendum question.

    Should we revoke Article 50?

    Yes
    No
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Sandpit said:


    The EU is inward-looking, protectionist (especially in agriculture), and spends years or even decades negotiating trade deals that go into excruciating detail on design of widgets - yet almost completely ignore financial services, intellectual property and developing technologies.

    I'm not a trade expert or anything but this doesn't seem to square with anything I've heard about the actual trade deals the EU is signing - for example, this is the IP section in the EU-Japan deal:
    http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2018/august/tradoc_157228.pdf#page=361

    Also not seeing the excruciating widget design details in there, maybe they're included by a reference to some other agreement or something???
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,171
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.

    We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.

    I think it helps Mrs May with Leavers.

    Back my deal or the House will vote to revoke A50.
    Not enough leavers to get the deal through the house. And labour are 1 step from being the remain party so will continue to say they want all options open not this deal. Any Tory switching would be admitting they fear remain would win if they don't agree. And Tory remainers, some, will vote against.

    So the deal still isn't happening.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1069877105775788033
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,700
    williamglenn said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    It's a very surprising opinion from the Advocate-General. It could scarcely be less helpful for the government seeking to corral Remainers into their pen.

    We'll have to wait and see whether it is followed by the CJEU.

    I think it helps Mrs May with Leavers.

    Back my deal or the House will vote to revoke A50.
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1069860244157841409
    Andrew Lilico is one of those Brexiteers that has been driven insane.

    He prefers a Corbyn government if Mrs May doesn’t deliver the precise Brexit Lilico wants.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,287
    tlg86 said:

    Presumably the EU will seek to amend A50 PDQ in light of this?

    Would that require unanimity ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Andrew Lilico is one of those Brexiteers that has been driven insane.

    He prefers a Corbyn government if Mrs May doesn’t deliver the precise Brexit Lilico wants.

    https://twitter.com/jlsinc/status/1069876887000883200
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,171
    Scott_P said:

    This (potentially) completely solves the second referendum question.

    Should we revoke Article 50?

    Yes
    No

    That doesn't solve anything. If we say no does that mean deal, new deal or no deal?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/LadPolitics/status/1069878329916960768
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Presumably the EU will seek to amend A50 PDQ in light of this?

    Would that require unanimity ?
    Ironically, wasn't it a Brit who drafted it? :lol:
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Nigelb said:

    tlg86 said:

    Presumably the EU will seek to amend A50 PDQ in light of this?

    Would that require unanimity ?
    And referendums in Ireland and Denmark, potentially???

    But I don't see why they'd want to, as long as the "no fucking around" clause is in there to stop people revoking Article 50 when they intend to remain. It's not like the rest of the EU is massively jealous of the UK for the chance to take part in excruciating, all-consuming negotiations while the EU agencies relocate and the rest of the EU makes its decisions without them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    This (potentially) completely solves the second referendum question.

    Should we revoke Article 50?

    Yes
    No

    That doesn't solve anything. If we say no does that mean deal, new deal or no deal?
    Yes! Depending upon who you ask. (Having already asked the voters. Twice....)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Mr. Pulpstar, Twitter yesterday reckoned Salvini had caved in to EU threats of a fine and will amend the Italian spending plans accordingly.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,814
    Ladbrokes: odds down just a smidge on another referendum (2.37 to 2.25, with no second referendum before the end of 2019 lengthening from 1.53 to 1.57).

    Be interesting to see if weight of money causes a bigger shift.

    Right now, you can get 4 and 4.5 on a second referendum Remain or Leave vote, respectively, but if the referendum's more complicated than that it could throw up potential problems.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited December 2018
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    Being out in name only, which is the reality of May’s deal, is meaningless and will please no one. All it will do is ensure Brexit continues to dominate politics, which seems inevitable now, rather than allowing us to get on with the rest of our lives. How could the Tories be so inept as to keep her as their leader.

    Actually May's Deal leaves the EU and ends free movement. As Deltapoll showed voters prefer that head to head to Remain or No Deal.

    If you really want Brexit in name only try permanent Single Market and Customs Union which may be what we end up with if the Deal is voted down or under PM Corbyn
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,171
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Ladbrokes: odds down just a smidge on another referendum (2.37 to 2.25, with no second referendum before the end of 2019 lengthening from 1.53 to 1.57).

    Be interesting to see if weight of money causes a bigger shift.

    Right now, you can get 4 and 4.5 on a second referendum Remain or Leave vote, respectively, but if the referendum's more complicated than that it could throw up potential problems.

    I'd put remain at 75% chance now. There's procedural issues to work out but unless 100 people change their minds on the deal the path has gotten much easier.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    kle4 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Ladbrokes: odds down just a smidge on another referendum (2.37 to 2.25, with no second referendum before the end of 2019 lengthening from 1.53 to 1.57).

    Be interesting to see if weight of money causes a bigger shift.

    Right now, you can get 4 and 4.5 on a second referendum Remain or Leave vote, respectively, but if the referendum's more complicated than that it could throw up potential problems.

    I'd put remain at 75% chance now. There's procedural issues to work out but unless 100 people change their minds on the deal the path has gotten much easier.
    There needs to be two changes in the law for Remain, how do you see that happening?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,301
    Scott_P said:

    This (potentially) completely solves the second referendum question.

    Should we revoke Article 50?

    Yes
    No

    Wonder what proportion of voters could correctly identify which option was leaving or remaining under that question.
This discussion has been closed.