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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First of the weekend’s polls sees LAB edge up in ICM/Sunday

SystemSystem Posts: 12,550
edited February 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First of the weekend’s polls sees LAB edge up in ICM/Sunday Telegraph Wisdom Index



ICM's 49% to 30% backing for LAB's 50% tax plan for high earners is the closest we've seen in any poll since Balls announcement last week — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2014

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    First!
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FPT:
    smithersjones2013 said:



    With Scotland so heavily anti-tory and pro-labour pretty much assures that the Tories cannot get a majority in Westminster even when they dominate all suburban and rural areas of England (as they did in 2010).

    The Conservatives did not dominate all of suburban England in 2010. There were loads of suburban seats in the north and the midlands, which were safely Tory up until 1997, which either stayed stubbornly Labour in 2010 or else only went over to the Tories on a surprisingly small swing.

    Had the Tories done as well as expected in the suburbs they would've got a majority. After all, they were thrashed by Labour in Scotland even in 1987, but that didn't stop them winning a healthy majority overall.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    Test
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    As others observed on the previous thread, vote shares look about right - Labour ahead, but not by much, and Lib Dems do "alright on the night". Must be slightly concerning for the two Eds that they only tie with the out if touch posh boys on their "cost of living crisis".
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I think the gap between the Tories' and Labour's voteshares are about right, but I think the Lib Dems will be quite a bit lower.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,173
    CarlottaVance said:

    Must be slightly concerning for the two Eds that they only tie with the out if touch posh boys on their "cost of living crisis".

    Labour's nightmare scenario is that, having cemented 'cost of living' in the public consciousness, we all start feeling better off and Ozzy gets the credit. Talk about creating your own monster. There's absolutely no point 'setting the narrative' if the other lot then get the plaudits for addressing it.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    smithersjones2013 said:



    With Scotland so heavily anti-tory and pro-labour pretty much assures that the Tories cannot get a majority in Westminster even when they dominate all suburban and rural areas of England (as they did in 2010).

    The Conservatives did not dominate all of suburban England in 2010. There were loads of suburban seats in the north and the midlands, which were safely Tory up until 1997, which either stayed stubbornly Labour in 2010 or else only went over to the Tories on a surprisingly small swing.

    Had the Tories done as well as expected in the suburbs they would've got a majority. After all, they were thrashed by Labour in Scotland even in 1987, but that didn't stop them winning a healthy majority overall.
    Is there any data on the voting split of public vs private sector?

    I'd assume that public sector employees are more inclined to vote Labour/LD (although not necessarily which is cause and which is effect) - and hence the expansion of the public sector under Blair/Brown increased the pool of voters favourably inclined to increases in public spending.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    What is this "feels about right" stuff? Can a gut instinct reliably discriminate small percentage movements in voting intention or is it just bullshit?
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Remarkable fall in the gap on the 50p tax rate.

    It is clear the electorate is beginning to understand economics.

    To put it simply: "Balls is balls".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jonathan said:

    What is this "feels about right" stuff? Can a gut instinct reliably discriminate small percentage movements in voting intention or is it just bullshit?

    You do realise this "poll" is entirely a survey of peoples' gut instincts?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Just got in and not seen any of the rugby. Surprised by the scoreline. Were Italy good, or Wales poor?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,121
    The "Prediction" figures, according to Electoral Calculus indicate a Lab majority of 10. 14 LD losses, and no UKIP seats. That's the trouble with a UNS of course.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Were Italy good, or Wales poor?

    Italy were good, and Wales were poor(er) than normal
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Cheers, Mr. P. Bodes ill for my Wales Triple Crown bet.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,121
    Good interception late on by Italy from what seemed a careless Welsh pass enabled them to get a try, then a conversion.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited February 2014
    Jonathan said:

    What is this "feels about right" stuff? Can a gut instinct reliably discriminate small percentage movements in voting intention or is it just bullshit?

    The ICM Wisdom Index is getting more and more out of kilter with reality. It's also getting so bullshitty, that it's hard to ignore the fact that ICM produce this crap just to keep in business.

    If a poll could forecast the outcome of of a GE some 16 months before the event, then it really would be the "gold standard", but they can't, hence a rolling crapola that makes the political nerds, ooh and aah.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Cheers, Mr. P. Bodes ill for my Wales Triple Crown bet.

    Not neccesarily, Wales played underpar according to all today - always a good idea to get your bad match out the way against inferior opposition. They should improve now.

    *That's the straw I'm clutching to at any rate !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    The general public underestimates Conservative vote share at next GE I think. Can't see it being less than 32.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    edited February 2014
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    smithersjones2013 said:



    With Scotland so heavily anti-tory and pro-labour pretty much assures that the Tories cannot get a majority in Westminster even when they dominate all suburban and rural areas of England (as they did in 2010).

    The Conservatives did not dominate all of suburban England in 2010. There were loads of suburban seats in the north and the midlands, which were safely Tory up until 1997, which either stayed stubbornly Labour in 2010 or else only went over to the Tories on a surprisingly small swing.

    Had the Tories done as well as expected in the suburbs they would've got a majority. After all, they were thrashed by Labour in Scotland even in 1987, but that didn't stop them winning a healthy majority overall.
    Its probably the semantics of what is and isn't an urban or suburban seat. The point is look at the electoral map of England after the 2010 election and apart from the core Labour heartlands there aint much red about. Labour were after all reduced to less than 30% of the vote.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/2010UKElectionMap.svg
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    Interesting article on Exaronews about the relationship between Clegg and Cable and the reason for Clegg cuddling up to Ed Balls.

    Exaro can reveal the extraordinary reason for the public rapprochement between Balls. the Labour bruiser, and Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats.

    They share a concern that Cable will demand to become Chancellor if Labour, led by Ed Miliband, forms a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats after the general election in 2015.

    Balls is expecting to become Chancellor. And Clegg does not want Cable as Chancellor in any coalition with Labour.

    More intrigue here: http://bit.ly/1lsbhGt
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,121
    Wales first game last year started so badly it was embarrassing. Especially as I was in a bar with a fanatic Irish supporter. Then in the second half they improved markedly, and stayed better all year. As Mr P says, always better to get your bad match out of the way.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    It will be interesting to see if Thursday's YouGov was the outlier. If we are in fact seeing Labour and the Tories both inside a margin of error and the size of leads come down to weighting, all the pollsters will have much refining to do in order to avoid a 1992 style red face.

    I suspect in the months ahead we will see several more leading LibDems decide they have had enough, probably 2-3 in Scotland at least. What price also we see some long serving Tory and Labour MPs encouraged not to rock the boat in return for a Peerage. Baroness Thirsk for example.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Damnit. Everton just equalised. I hedged this, but still deeply irked.

    The only possible response is to sacrifice a goat to Nike on Villa's behalf.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    MikeK said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is this "feels about right" stuff? Can a gut instinct reliably discriminate small percentage movements in voting intention or is it just bullshit?

    The ICM Wisdom Index is getting more and more out of kilter with reality. It's also getting so bullshitty, that it's hard to ignore the fact that ICM produce this crap just to keep in business.
    Impress us with your wisdom then......
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2014
    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    smithersjones2013 said:



    With Scotland so heavily anti-tory and pro-labour pretty much assures that the Tories cannot get a majority in Westminster even when they dominate all suburban and rural areas of England (as they did in 2010).

    The Conservatives did not dominate all of suburban England in 2010. There were loads of suburban seats in the north and the midlands, which were safely Tory up until 1997, which either stayed stubbornly Labour in 2010 or else only went over to the Tories on a surprisingly small swing.

    Had the Tories done as well as expected in the suburbs they would've got a majority. After all, they were thrashed by Labour in Scotland even in 1987, but that didn't stop them winning a healthy majority overall.
    Is there any data on the voting split of public vs private sector?

    I'd assume that public sector employees are more inclined to vote Labour/LD (although not necessarily which is cause and which is effect) - and hence the expansion of the public sector under Blair/Brown increased the pool of voters favourably inclined to increases in public spending.
    The explosion in public-sector employment in the north and in some parts of the Midlands is definitely a factor -- obviously, there's a lot of people in the public sector who earn pretty good wages and are able to afford to move out into affluent residential areas, but who don't vote Tory because of their hysterical anti-public sector nonsense.

    There's other factors in play too though, especially in the north. The perception that the Tories just dislike the north is widespread, even among private-sector workers, old people and very comfortably well-off people. Wirral West and Wirral South are probably the best examples of all -- both very affluent and which voted Conservative by double-digit margins even in 1992, but in 2010, Wirral South stayed Labour while Wirral West only went over on a minuscule swing. And both seats had new Labour candidates (thus no incumbency bonus), to boot.

    The problem is, many of the people who voted Tory and allowed them to win in those areas back in the 80s are now in the graveyard, and the people who've replaced them in the electorate never lose their sense that the Tories are anti-north, even as they get wealthier and older (both things which would make a person much more likely to start voting Tory elsewhere in the country).
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Danny565 said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    smithersjones2013 said:



    With Scotland so heavily anti-tory and pro-labour pretty much assures that the Tories cannot get a majority in Westminster even when they dominate all suburban and rural areas of England (as they did in 2010).

    The Conservatives did not dominate all of suburban England in 2010. There were loads of suburban seats in the north and the midlands, which were safely Tory up until 1997, which either stayed stubbornly Labour in 2010 or else only went over to the Tories on a surprisingly small swing.

    Had the Tories done as well as expected in the suburbs they would've got a majority. After all, they were thrashed by Labour in Scotland even in 1987, but that didn't stop them winning a healthy majority overall.
    Is there any data on the voting split of public vs private sector?

    I'd assume that public sector employees are more inclined to vote Labour/LD (although not necessarily which is cause and which is effect) - and hence the expansion of the public sector under Blair/Brown increased the pool of voters favourably inclined to increases in public spending.
    The explosion in public-sector employment in the north and in some parts of the Midlands is definitely a factor -- obviously, there's a lot of people in the public sector who earn pretty good wages and are able to afford to move out into affluent residential areas, but who don't vote Tory because of their hysterical anti-public sector nonsense.

    There's other factors in play too though, especially in the north. The perception that the Tories just dislike the north is widespread, even among private-sector workers, old people and very comfortably well-off people. Wirral West and Wirral South are probably the best examples of all -- both very affluent and which voted Conservative by double-digit margins even in 1992, but in 2010, Wirral South stayed Labour while Wirral West only went over on a minuscule swing. And both seats had new Labour candidates (thus no incumbency bonus), to boot.

    The problem is, many of the people who voted Tory and allowed them to win in those areas back in the 80s are now in the graveyard, and the people who've replaced them in the electorate never lose their sense that the Tories are anti-north, even as they get wealthier and older (both things which would make a person much more likely to start voting Tory elsewhere in the country).
    This perception is not only a problem in the North of England. If located south of Birmingham, the seats of Inverness, Moray, both Aberdeenshire, both Angus, both Perthshire, 2 or 3 of the Edinburgh, Argyll, South Aberdeen one of the Ayrshire and all the Borders/Dumfries seats would be safe Tory seats with 5 figure majorities as indeed they were until 1974 and in some cases as recently as 1997.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    CarlottaVance said:

    MikeK said:

    Jonathan said:

    What is this "feels about right" stuff? Can a gut instinct reliably discriminate small percentage movements in voting intention or is it just bullshit?

    The ICM Wisdom Index is getting more and more out of kilter with reality. It's also getting so bullshitty, that it's hard to ignore the fact that ICM produce this crap just to keep in business.
    Impress us with your wisdom then......
    Carlotta

    The Kippers are more concerned about gut movement than gut instinct.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,998
    Danny565 said:

    Charles said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:

    smithersjones2013 said:



    The Conservatives did not dominate all of suburban England in 2010. There were loads of suburban seats in the north and the midlands, which were safely Tory up until 1997, which either stayed stubbornly Labour in 2010 or else only went over to the Tories on a surprisingly small swing.

    Had the Tories done as well as expected in the suburbs they would've got a majority. After all, they were thrashed by Labour in Scotland even in 1987, but that didn't stop them winning a healthy majority overall.

    Is there any data on the voting split of public vs private sector?

    I'd assume that public sector employees are more inclined to vote Labour/LD (although not necessarily which is cause and which is effect) - and hence the expansion of the public sector under Blair/Brown increased the pool of voters favourably inclined to increases in public spending.
    The explosion in public-sector employment in the north and in some parts of the Midlands is definitely a factor -- obviously, there's a lot of people in the public sector who earn pretty good wages and are able to afford to move out into affluent residential areas, but who don't vote Tory because of their hysterical anti-public sector nonsense.

    There's other factors in play too though, especially in the north. The perception that the Tories just dislike the north is widespread, even among private-sector workers, old people and very comfortably well-off people. Wirral West and Wirral South are probably the best examples of all -- both very affluent and which voted Conservative by double-digit margins even in 1992, but in 2010, Wirral South stayed Labour while Wirral West only went over on a minuscule swing. And both seats had new Labour candidates (thus no incumbency bonus), to boot.

    The problem is, many of the people who voted Tory and allowed them to win in those areas back in the 80s are now in the graveyard, and the people who've replaced them in the electorate never lose their sense that the Tories are anti-north, even as they get wealthier and older (both things which would make a person much more likely to start voting Tory elsewhere in the country).
    The Conservatives' Northern problem is specifically a problem in Merseyside, Sheffield, Newcastle, and Manchester. Parts of the North are either rock-firm Conservative (such as North and East Yorkshire and Cheshire) or areas where the Conservatives are very competitive, such as West Yorkshire and Lancashire. Yorkshire and Humberside and the North East both gave above-average swings to the Conservatives in 2010.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    I know Inverness hasn't been Tory held since 1963 but much of Danny Alexander's current seat was carved out of the adjacent former Tory seat Moray and Nairn etc
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Damnit. Everton just equalised. I hedged this, but still deeply irked.

    The only possible response is to sacrifice a goat to Nike on Villa's behalf.

    That sacrifice didn't work.

    I hope you were able to hedge for a profit.

    I also hope you got on the Sunderland tip which was profitable.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Mr. Eagles, yes, to both.

    Well, if Everton win it's a small profit, if they draw I think I'm flat. I had a multiple bet, so I could afford to hedge after Sunderland won.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    edited February 2014
    Anyone dissing the wisdom index should be reminded that the Wisdom index was the most accurate poll at the 2010 General Election.

    It proved that the Cleggasm was all fart and no follow through.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, yes, to both.

    Well, if Everton win it's a small profit, if they draw I think I'm flat. I had a multiple bet, so I could afford to hedge after Sunderland won.

    Huzzah.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,701
    Huzzah for your tips, Mr. Eagles. Obviously I hope the Liverpool one comes off, but even if it doesn't I think I'm ahead overall.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Huzzah for your tips, Mr. Eagles. Obviously I hope the Liverpool one comes off, but even if it doesn't I think I'm ahead overall.

    I hope to post some more bets on Monday on the City v Chelsea match

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Merde alors
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Merde alors

    Quelle probleme?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Merde alors

    Quelle probleme?
    The Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys scored a try after 32 seconds.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Guardian website has had a makeover:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Merde alors

    Quelle probleme?
    The Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys scored a try after 32 seconds.

    So now double merde?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Merde alors

    Quelle probleme?
    The Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys scored a try after 32 seconds.

    So now double merde?
    You're being very cheeky considering your team were nearly humiliated by the Italians.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    Canary Islands cat is found in Aberdeenshire:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-25997769
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    edited February 2014
    Hommes contre Garcons a Paris au moment. Merde.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Imagine being that england bloke who wears the flag of St George get-up and flag at all things sporty - he's got the cricket, rugby and then the footie world cup to survive this year!

    Probably a Man U fan with Spurs as his 2nd team.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Oh dear, I see England is in need of some longbowmen in order to avoid a reverse Agincourt this evening.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Merde alors

    Quelle probleme?
    The Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys scored a try after 32 seconds.

    So now double merde?
    You're being very cheeky considering your team were nearly humiliated by the Italians.

    From long experience any Welshman can tell you that nearly and almost don't add up to much.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    edited February 2014
    As I said last night, England are experimenting and making sure they peak in time for the 2015 World Cup

    No one will remember who wins the 2014 six nations but they will remember who won the 2015 World Cup.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,706
    Always found it hard to take the Wisdom Index seriously, even when it's moving our way - it's a survey of other people's anecdotal surveys.

    Equally anecdotally, my impression from the doorstep is that UKIP is slightly off the boil - met several people who said they'd been thinking of voting for them, but that they'd probably vote for us in the end. This was in a strongly Labour area, and there could be UKIP->Tory switching going on in Tory areas that I've not canvassed recently.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As I said last night, England are experimenting and making sure they peak in time for the 2015 World Cup

    No one will remember who wins the 2014 six nations but they will remember who won the 2015 World Cup.

    Will the conservatives be experimenting at the euro elections ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Promising signs in the last 10 minutes. Moving the ball very nicely, but silly errors really hurting us. Forwards suffering though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    As I said last night, England are experimenting and making sure they peak in time for the 2015 World Cup

    No one will remember who wins the 2014 six nations but they will remember who won the 2015 World Cup.

    Will the conservatives be experimenting at the euro elections ?
    Yes.

    Although I suspect, I'll need a fresh batch of straws by then.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    http://theladystackle.wordpress.com/2014/01/31/the-dos-and-donts-of-living-with-a-welsh-woman-during-the-six-nations/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @FelicityMorse: Ukip's new Anti-Labour leaflet... Because you know rich people can't care about poor people http://t.co/LAohe5zGFd via @DanJukes17
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP youth wing:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4Fpe1MMlb4&amp
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Scott_P said:

    @FelicityMorse: Ukip's new Anti-Labour leaflet... Because you know rich people can't care about poor people http://t.co/LAohe5zGFd via @DanJukes17

    The poster does make clear there are as many "toffs" on the Labour front bench as the Tory one but then again one can only be a toff if a Tory according to most lefties.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Easterross said:

    Oh dear, I see England is in need of some longbowmen in order to avoid a reverse Agincourt this evening.

    Why would the Welsh want to help the English out?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SouthamObserver said:

    Promising signs in the last 10 minutes. Moving the ball very nicely, but silly errors really hurting us. Forwards suffering though.

    You talking about the Tories or the rugby?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2014
    Sean_F said:



    The Conservatives' Northern problem is specifically a problem in Merseyside, Sheffield, Newcastle, and Manchester. Parts of the North are either rock-firm Conservative (such as North and East Yorkshire and Cheshire) or areas where the Conservatives are very competitive, such as West Yorkshire and Lancashire. Yorkshire and Humberside and the North East both gave above-average swings to the Conservatives in 2010.

    Just taking the overall swings for the north is slightly misleading though -- Labour's vote fell very heavily in uber-safe northern seats, but in virtually all northern marginals, the swing against Labour was much smaller, because Labour campaigners were able to frighten people into thinking that if they didn't vote, they might let the Tory in, and so managed to coax out unenthusiastic Labour supporters, whereas they were unable to in safe seats where unenthusiastic Labour voters were content in the knowledge that they could afford to not vote for them and not risk a Tory getting in. Even in those safe Labour seats where their vote fell heavily, most of their lost votes went to the Lib Dems or small parties rather than to the Tories anyway.

    Generally, with only a few exceptions, the only rock-solid safe Tory seats in the north are in very rural areas. Most suburban/middle-income northern seats really have trended heavily away from the Tories since 1992, and even in those types of seats that the Tories did manage to snatch in 2010, they were mostly on below-average swings, and they've suffered above-national average swings against them in the local elections since 2010 in most of those seats.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Get the feck in.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Easterross said:

    Scott_P said:

    @FelicityMorse: Ukip's new Anti-Labour leaflet... Because you know rich people can't care about poor people http://t.co/LAohe5zGFd via @DanJukes17

    The poster does make clear there are as many "toffs" on the Labour front bench as the Tory one but then again one can only be a toff if a Tory according to most lefties.
    Labour are nouveaux toffs, Easterross.

    The worst kind.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,123
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP youth wing:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4Fpe1MMlb4&amp

    The young labour girl is a sour faced misery, there's a surprise!

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Sensational try. England looking so mobile and quick right now. But we must stay disciplined.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    AveryLP said:

    Easterross said:

    Scott_P said:

    @FelicityMorse: Ukip's new Anti-Labour leaflet... Because you know rich people can't care about poor people http://t.co/LAohe5zGFd via @DanJukes17

    The poster does make clear there are as many "toffs" on the Labour front bench as the Tory one but then again one can only be a toff if a Tory according to most lefties.
    Labour are nouveaux toffs, Easterross.

    The worst kind.

    Do you actually believe in democracy, Avery? No particular reason why you should, of course.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    AveryLP said:

    Easterross said:

    Scott_P said:

    @FelicityMorse: Ukip's new Anti-Labour leaflet... Because you know rich people can't care about poor people http://t.co/LAohe5zGFd via @DanJukes17

    The poster does make clear there are as many "toffs" on the Labour front bench as the Tory one but then again one can only be a toff if a Tory according to most lefties.
    Labour are nouveaux toffs, Easterross.

    The worst kind.

    In a lovely exchange on Twitter with me this early evening, Nick Watt of Guardian/Observer fame has claimed that no real aristocratic titles have been created since the Act of Union. I am sure Jack W will fully agree and approve.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Innocent_Abroad said:

    AveryLP said:

    Easterross said:

    Scott_P said:

    @FelicityMorse: Ukip's new Anti-Labour leaflet... Because you know rich people can't care about poor people http://t.co/LAohe5zGFd via @DanJukes17

    The poster does make clear there are as many "toffs" on the Labour front bench as the Tory one but then again one can only be a toff if a Tory according to most lefties.
    Labour are nouveaux toffs, Easterross.

    The worst kind.

    Do you actually believe in democracy, Avery? No particular reason why you should, of course.

    Of course not, IA.

    What a silly question!
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Gosh is that England doing a jolly good impression of a comeback? 18-16 according to the Beeb website
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    If those party vote shares were even close to being replicated for the election result in 2015 then Cammie would be out the door quicker than you can say 'marginals'.

    The kippers on about 12. If we see that at the end of the year then the hysteria and blind panic from the tory backbenches will be breathtaking to behold. It would far eclipse anything we've seen to date and they've not exactly been calm and happy thus far, have they?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    I considered backing England at 6.2, obviously I didn't.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    Easterross said:

    AveryLP said:

    Easterross said:

    Scott_P said:

    @FelicityMorse: Ukip's new Anti-Labour leaflet... Because you know rich people can't care about poor people http://t.co/LAohe5zGFd via @DanJukes17

    The poster does make clear there are as many "toffs" on the Labour front bench as the Tory one but then again one can only be a toff if a Tory according to most lefties.
    Labour are nouveaux toffs, Easterross.

    The worst kind.

    In a lovely exchange on Twitter with me this early evening, Nick Watt of Guardian/Observer fame has claimed that no real aristocratic titles have been created since the Act of Union. I am sure Jack W will fully agree and approve.
    I do think this is what all the independence fuss is about.

    Eck clealy has his eye on the Thanage of Banff and Buchan.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Farrell having a sensational game.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    England being solidly better in second half, but France have some sparkle about them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    SouthamObserver said:

    Farrell having a sensational game.

    He is, one of my Welsh friends has texted to remind me that England are playing the Wooden spoon winners from last year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Nigel Owens is a top ref.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Barritt coming on. That's essentially sticking up a sign saying "we're not looking for more tries, just want to hold on".
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Even when France don't play that well, I'm almost always a little envious at their greater sense of adventure.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Mick_Pork said:

    If those party vote shares were even close to being replicated for the election result in 2015 then Cammie would be out the door quicker than you can say 'marginals'.

    The kippers on about 12. If we see that at the end of the year then the hysteria and blind panic from the tory backbenches will be breathtaking to behold. It would far eclipse anything we've seen to date and they've not exactly been calm and happy thus far, have they?

    Mick don't worry your wee head about it. According to you, you and I will be "looking forward" to March 2016 and Independence Day by then!! I suspect by the end of this year John Rentoul won't be the only journalist speculating who the new Labour Party leader will be come Christmas next year.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    BOLLOCKS!!!!
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Is John Prescott on holiday in Indonesia? I see on the news that Sinabung has had a deadly eruption.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    Zut alors !
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Very, very disappointing. England have been excellent, but with so much territory and possession they should have done more. A work in progress.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Strange decision by France. Surely you kill a minute and kick it out?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    On the flip side, that wise bloke who suggested people lay England for the Grand Slam/Title is a bloody visionary.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Oh dear....C4 interviewing the actor who plays the brooding Martin in "The Bridge" (finishes tonight) and he's a charming, hippy luvvie! Just sharing the love......
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    Easterross said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    If those party vote shares were even close to being replicated for the election result in 2015 then Cammie would be out the door quicker than you can say 'marginals'.

    The kippers on about 12. If we see that at the end of the year then the hysteria and blind panic from the tory backbenches will be breathtaking to behold. It would far eclipse anything we've seen to date and they've not exactly been calm and happy thus far, have they?

    don't worry your wee head about it.
    You think that was Sir George Young's advice to Cammie before his backbenchers humiliated him yet again?

    I'm not worried in the slightest by all the fun and games and they are only going to get more amusing the closer we get to May. However, any tory who isn't worried is living on a different planet. We might even still see a crossover this year but it won't stop backbenchers with kippers breathing down their necks in their own seats from panicking. It certainly didn't with all those yougovs showing a near crossover.



  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Easterross said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    If those party vote shares were even close to being replicated for the election result in 2015 then Cammie would be out the door quicker than you can say 'marginals'.

    The kippers on about 12. If we see that at the end of the year then the hysteria and blind panic from the tory backbenches will be breathtaking to behold. It would far eclipse anything we've seen to date and they've not exactly been calm and happy thus far, have they?

    Mick don't worry your wee head about it. According to you, you and I will be "looking forward" to March 2016 and Independence Day by then!!!
    The fact that he does seem so obsessed with events that will only take place (if at all) well after Scottish independence in what will by then be a foreign country....does make one wonder how truly confident of separation he is.....
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    CarlottaVance said:

    As others observed on the previous thread, vote shares look about right

    Another tory chump happy to see the kippers on about 12. Where does PB find them?

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,454
    Easterross said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    If those party vote shares were even close to being replicated for the election result in 2015 then Cammie would be out the door quicker than you can say 'marginals'.

    The kippers on about 12. If we see that at the end of the year then the hysteria and blind panic from the tory backbenches will be breathtaking to behold. It would far eclipse anything we've seen to date and they've not exactly been calm and happy thus far, have they?

    Mick don't worry your wee head about it. According to you, you and I will be "looking forward" to March 2016 and Independence Day by then!! I suspect by the end of this year John Rentoul won't be the only journalist speculating who the new Labour Party leader will be come Christmas next year.
    Easterross, September will be a big month for champagne and whisky sales.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    You can lose that kind of game and learn a lot from it. If England can do that it will be worth tonight's disappointment. A lot to be positive about, but in the end we did not make the most of the possession and territory we had. I wish I was drinking. Oh well.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    Toby Helm ‏@tobyhelm 3m

    Labour has 7% lead in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 36, n/c. Tories 29, -1. Ukip 17,n/c. Lib Dem 8 n/c. After wobbly poll wk, this more normal.
  • corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On the flip side, that wise bloke who suggested people lay England for the Grand Slam/Title is a bloody visionary.

    You see what I mean about nearly and almost?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,569
    corporeal said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On the flip side, that wise bloke who suggested people lay England for the Grand Slam/Title is a bloody visionary.

    You see what I mean about nearly and almost?
    Yup.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    More women flee from Rennard Lib Dems as Emma Gilpin-Jacobs stands down after only two months from her six-figure role as the Deputy PM’s director of communications.

    http://t.co/GYLGzad0Be

    Mark Senior may have to consider cross-dressing to keep appearances up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,709
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Toby Helm ‏@tobyhelm 3m

    Labour has 7% lead in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 36, n/c. Tories 29, -1. Ukip 17,n/c. Lib Dem 8 n/c. After wobbly poll wk, this more normal.

    I think the tide was starting to turn in the Conservatives' favour, but the 50p move by Labour is starting to eek through now and stopped their rot.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,123
    NickPalmer said:

    Always found it hard to take the Wisdom Index seriously, even when it's moving our way - it's a survey of other people's anecdotal surveys.

    Equally anecdotally, my impression from the doorstep is that UKIP is slightly off the boil - met several people who said they'd been thinking of voting for them, but that they'd probably vote for us in the end. This was in a strongly Labour area, and there could be UKIP->Tory switching going on in Tory areas that I've not canvassed recently.

    Anecdotally, I've never heard an anecdote from a Labourite or Tory on here that says ukip are making an impression anywhere!

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited February 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Toby Helm ‏@tobyhelm 3m

    Labour has 7% lead in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 36, n/c. Tories 29, -1. Ukip 17,n/c. Lib Dem 8 n/c. After wobbly poll wk, this more normal.

    I think the tide was starting to turn in the Conservatives' favour, but the 50p move by Labour is starting to eek through now and stopped their rot.
    Could be. I doubt more tory splits and chaos will have helped either.

    I still think last years trend and movements for the May locals were not a fluke and we will see a broadly similar pattern before and after the EU elections. With the crucial difference that when you transpose last years VI trend for labour and the tories into this year that gap between labour and the tories gets far narrower and way more likely to crossover when the softer tory kipper waverers come back after May.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    It's possible labour have lost all they can to the kippers but there is still a very big pool of disaffected WWC labour voters that little Ed just doesn't seem to be able to reach so I would tend to think not.

    Needless to say we can safely ignore the lib dems 'movement' since they have been flatlining at 10% since late 2010.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,121
    The OMOV discussion on C4 was quite impressive. Tempted me to sign up to EdM's gang.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    isam said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Always found it hard to take the Wisdom Index seriously, even when it's moving our way - it's a survey of other people's anecdotal surveys.

    Equally anecdotally, my impression from the doorstep is that UKIP is slightly off the boil - met several people who said they'd been thinking of voting for them, but that they'd probably vote for us in the end. This was in a strongly Labour area, and there could be UKIP->Tory switching going on in Tory areas that I've not canvassed recently.

    Anecdotally, I've never heard an anecdote from a Labourite or Tory on here that says ukip are making an impression anywhere!

    To be fair, that's because most of the people who post canvassing anecdotes are enthusiasts for one of the other parties, so may either be suffering confirmation bias or selection bias
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited February 2014
    OldKingCole said:

    The OMOV discussion on C4 was quite impressive. Tempted me to sign up to EdM's gang.

    OKC

    1. What is today's date?

    2. How are a watch and a ruler similar? Write down how they are alike

    3. Write down the names of 12 different animals

    4. You are buying £13.45 of groceries at a supermarket till. How much change would you receive back from a £20 note?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,637
    edited February 2014
    AveryLP said:

    Easterross said:

    AveryLP said:

    Easterross said:

    Scott_P said:

    @FelicityMorse: Ukip's new Anti-Labour leaflet... Because you know rich people can't care about poor people http://t.co/LAohe5zGFd via @DanJukes17

    The poster does make clear there are as many "toffs" on the Labour front bench as the Tory one but then again one can only be a toff if a Tory according to most lefties.
    Labour are nouveaux toffs, Easterross.

    The worst kind.

    In a lovely exchange on Twitter with me this early evening, Nick Watt of Guardian/Observer fame has claimed that no real aristocratic titles have been created since the Act of Union. I am sure Jack W will fully agree and approve.
    I do think this is what all the independence fuss is about.

    Eck clealy has his eye on the Thanage of Banff and Buchan.
    He'd be thrown out of the SNP if he took it! One of the elements of the SNP which I find most interesting (though I am not a member myself) is their self-denying ordinance against accepting peerages. It must be one of the most important factors in driving the Labour Party in Scotland to demented fury, as it instantly immunizes the SNP against one of the most powerful weapons of the Establishment, as well as giving them a head start in the anti-corruption stakes, alongside the far superior performance of the Holyrood parliament. (And in case anyone asks, it is civil servants who award honours in Scotland now.)

    And ... er ... which Act of Union, please? I'd assume 1707 but in view of the way in which Irish peerages were downgraded at one time, I should ask ...

  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited February 2014
    Mick_Pork said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Toby Helm ‏@tobyhelm 3m

    Labour has 7% lead in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 36, n/c. Tories 29, -1. Ukip 17,n/c. Lib Dem 8 n/c. After wobbly poll wk, this more normal.

    I think the tide was starting to turn in the Conservatives' favour, but the 50p move by Labour is starting to eek through now and stopped their rot.
    Could be. I doubt more tory splits and chaos will have helped either.

    I still think last years trend and movements for the May locals were not a fluke and we will see a broadly similar pattern before and after the EU elections. With the crucial difference that when you transpose last years VI trend for labour and the tories into this year that gap between labour and the tories gets far narrower and way more likely to crossover when the softer tory kipper waverers come back after May.

    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

    It's possible labour have lost all they can to the kippers but there is still a very big pool of disaffected WWC labour voters that little Ed just doesn't seem to be able to reach so I would tend to think not.

    Needless to say we can safely ignore the lib dems 'movement' since they have been flatlining at 10% since late 2010.
    I think you're right. Contrary to the clueless media's predictions with their demented ravings about how Labour need to appeal more to socalled "Middle England", it's white working-class voters, especially men, who are the weakest part of Labour's voting "coalition" - middle-class Labour voters (especially ones who work in the public sector) tend to be quite satisfied with the party and with Ed Miliband, but there's many more "traditional" Labour voters who feel they don't speak up for the poor anymore and are too interested in cosying up to the rich. Those types of voters are definitely vulnerable to UKIP if they continue to transform themselves into a British Front National (leftwing/statist on economics, rightwing on immigration).
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