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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First of the weekend’s polls sees LAB edge up in ICM/Sunday
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First of the weekend’s polls sees LAB edge up in ICM/Sunday Telegraph Wisdom Index
ICM's 49% to 30% backing for LAB's 50% tax plan for high earners is the closest we've seen in any poll since Balls announcement last week — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 1, 2014
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Had the Tories done as well as expected in the suburbs they would've got a majority. After all, they were thrashed by Labour in Scotland even in 1987, but that didn't stop them winning a healthy majority overall.
I'd assume that public sector employees are more inclined to vote Labour/LD (although not necessarily which is cause and which is effect) - and hence the expansion of the public sector under Blair/Brown increased the pool of voters favourably inclined to increases in public spending.
It is clear the electorate is beginning to understand economics.
To put it simply: "Balls is balls".
Just got in and not seen any of the rugby. Surprised by the scoreline. Were Italy good, or Wales poor?
If a poll could forecast the outcome of of a GE some 16 months before the event, then it really would be the "gold standard", but they can't, hence a rolling crapola that makes the political nerds, ooh and aah.
*That's the straw I'm clutching to at any rate !
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f7/2010UKElectionMap.svg
Exaro can reveal the extraordinary reason for the public rapprochement between Balls. the Labour bruiser, and Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats.
They share a concern that Cable will demand to become Chancellor if Labour, led by Ed Miliband, forms a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats after the general election in 2015.
Balls is expecting to become Chancellor. And Clegg does not want Cable as Chancellor in any coalition with Labour.
More intrigue here: http://bit.ly/1lsbhGt
I suspect in the months ahead we will see several more leading LibDems decide they have had enough, probably 2-3 in Scotland at least. What price also we see some long serving Tory and Labour MPs encouraged not to rock the boat in return for a Peerage. Baroness Thirsk for example.
The only possible response is to sacrifice a goat to Nike on Villa's behalf.
There's other factors in play too though, especially in the north. The perception that the Tories just dislike the north is widespread, even among private-sector workers, old people and very comfortably well-off people. Wirral West and Wirral South are probably the best examples of all -- both very affluent and which voted Conservative by double-digit margins even in 1992, but in 2010, Wirral South stayed Labour while Wirral West only went over on a minuscule swing. And both seats had new Labour candidates (thus no incumbency bonus), to boot.
The problem is, many of the people who voted Tory and allowed them to win in those areas back in the 80s are now in the graveyard, and the people who've replaced them in the electorate never lose their sense that the Tories are anti-north, even as they get wealthier and older (both things which would make a person much more likely to start voting Tory elsewhere in the country).
The Kippers are more concerned about gut movement than gut instinct.
I hope you were able to hedge for a profit.
I also hope you got on the Sunderland tip which was profitable.
Well, if Everton win it's a small profit, if they draw I think I'm flat. I had a multiple bet, so I could afford to hedge after Sunderland won.
It proved that the Cleggasm was all fart and no follow through.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk
Canary Islands cat is found in Aberdeenshire:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-25997769
Probably a Man U fan with Spurs as his 2nd team.
No one will remember who wins the 2014 six nations but they will remember who won the 2015 World Cup.
Equally anecdotally, my impression from the doorstep is that UKIP is slightly off the boil - met several people who said they'd been thinking of voting for them, but that they'd probably vote for us in the end. This was in a strongly Labour area, and there could be UKIP->Tory switching going on in Tory areas that I've not canvassed recently.
Although I suspect, I'll need a fresh batch of straws by then.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4Fpe1MMlb4&
Generally, with only a few exceptions, the only rock-solid safe Tory seats in the north are in very rural areas. Most suburban/middle-income northern seats really have trended heavily away from the Tories since 1992, and even in those types of seats that the Tories did manage to snatch in 2010, they were mostly on below-average swings, and they've suffered above-national average swings against them in the local elections since 2010 in most of those seats.
The worst kind.
What a silly question!
The kippers on about 12. If we see that at the end of the year then the hysteria and blind panic from the tory backbenches will be breathtaking to behold. It would far eclipse anything we've seen to date and they've not exactly been calm and happy thus far, have they?
Eck clealy has his eye on the Thanage of Banff and Buchan.
I'm not worried in the slightest by all the fun and games and they are only going to get more amusing the closer we get to May. However, any tory who isn't worried is living on a different planet. We might even still see a crossover this year but it won't stop backbenchers with kippers breathing down their necks in their own seats from panicking. It certainly didn't with all those yougovs showing a near crossover.
Labour has 7% lead in new Opinium/Obs poll. Lab 36, n/c. Tories 29, -1. Ukip 17,n/c. Lib Dem 8 n/c. After wobbly poll wk, this more normal.
http://t.co/GYLGzad0Be
Mark Senior may have to consider cross-dressing to keep appearances up.
I still think last years trend and movements for the May locals were not a fluke and we will see a broadly similar pattern before and after the EU elections. With the crucial difference that when you transpose last years VI trend for labour and the tories into this year that gap between labour and the tories gets far narrower and way more likely to crossover when the softer tory kipper waverers come back after May.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/96/UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png
It's possible labour have lost all they can to the kippers but there is still a very big pool of disaffected WWC labour voters that little Ed just doesn't seem to be able to reach so I would tend to think not.
Needless to say we can safely ignore the lib dems 'movement' since they have been flatlining at 10% since late 2010.
1. What is today's date?
2. How are a watch and a ruler similar? Write down how they are alike
3. Write down the names of 12 different animals
4. You are buying £13.45 of groceries at a supermarket till. How much change would you receive back from a £20 note?
And ... er ... which Act of Union, please? I'd assume 1707 but in view of the way in which Irish peerages were downgraded at one time, I should ask ...