Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Can May win the ‘meaningful

2456

Comments

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    rcs1000 said:

    Kerching!

    I think I was the only one on this site betting the A50 time would be extended.
    BETTING POST
    =========
    A three-month delay to Article 50 would put Brexit day in June 2019. Skybet has 6/1 on April-June 2019 and Betfair Exchange (not Betfair Sportsbook) have 34/5 on April-June 2019
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840



    notme said:


    Staggering. Even by outlier standards. Surely a mistake....
    Could be a typo by The Times.
    I suspect so - otherwise you'd expect the Times to lead with the story.
    Typo. But might be the figure when the young find out their hero is a Leaving eurosceptic and they stop putting their fingers in their ears.


    I can't see the process of

    My god right/centre commentator was right and Corbyn is bad pro Brexit person, as my vote is based on being against Brexit the best thing to do is to not vote Labour and hope the Tories win a landslide.

    Getting any further than it already has done.

    You have the arguments about the referendum and his involvement which has already convinced anyone it was going to convince, some right wing newspapers or some pro Brexit commentator recycling the line about how Corbyn was great for Brexit will just reinforce the idea in the largely Corbyn free audience of people who read and believe that stuff.

    Some kind of completion could see those who are voting Labour just for Brexit reasons and aren't annoyed at the Tories for Brexit lost but I don't see what the thing is that will suddenly change at some point that will mean people will 'find out their hero is a leaving eurosceptic'

    It just sounds hopeful.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,340
    Theo said:

    viewcode said:

    notme said:

    “However, the EU has made clear that the extension would only be offered after parliament had come to a clear conclusion about the type of future relationship it wants.“

    And they can f*ckity f*ck right off. They insisted on sequencing.
    Indeed. God forbid the Parliament of the United Kingdom should actually make a decision for once.
    The Government has done, but the issue is Labour are voting down any deal.
    Yep, the 100 MPs of the Government's party that are going to vote against the deal are definitely not the issue,,,
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    Theo said:

    viewcode said:

    notme said:

    “However, the EU has made clear that the extension would only be offered after parliament had come to a clear conclusion about the type of future relationship it wants.“

    And they can f*ckity f*ck right off. They insisted on sequencing.
    Indeed. God forbid the Parliament of the United Kingdom should actually make a decision for once.
    The Government has done, but the issue is Labour are voting down any deal.
    I was referring to the Parliament (Westminster, MPs), not the Government (Whitehall, PM, Cabinet and Civil Service)
  • NotchNotch Posts: 145
    edited November 2018
    Theo said:

    viewcode said:

    notme said:

    “However, the EU has made clear that the extension would only be offered after parliament had come to a clear conclusion about the type of future relationship it wants.“

    And they can f*ckity f*ck right off. They insisted on sequencing.
    Indeed. God forbid the Parliament of the United Kingdom should actually make a decision for once.
    The Government has done, but the issue is Labour are voting down any deal.
    The Government knew that any agreement it reached would have to be approved by the House of Commons, because that's required by the EU Withdrawal Act. If they have spent so much time until a mere 3 months before the A50 deadline negotiating and then propagandising for a total crock that gets booted into touch by the Commons then that is nobody's fault but the Government's. The Commons has "usual channels" in which the Government is able to keep in regular touch with the opposition parties. When calamity hits because "there was insufficient time to prepare for No Deal", people should remember that. Yes, the government that took 9 months to submit the A50 letter is still in office. A government composed of ministers who look at closed airports and blocked motorways and shortages of food and medicines and blame the Opposition isn't fit to be a government. Yet still we hear that they're going to apply themselves to undertaking further preparations for No Deal after their draft agreement gets rejected by the Commons in a fortnight's time. They've always known that the electorate gave their party less than a majority of Commons seats, and it is well known that they don't even enjoy the confidence of a large number of their own MPs. They've got no excuse whatsoever for their incompetence, which has nothing to do with any imperfections of the Labour party or Jeremy Corbyn.


  • notme said:


    Staggering. Even by outlier standards. Surely a mistake....
    Could be a typo by The Times.
    I suspect so - otherwise you'd expect the Times to lead with the story.
    Typo. But might be the figure when the young find out their hero is a Leaving eurosceptic and they stop putting their fingers in their ears.


    Nah, their hero watches I'm a Celeb, so he is still alright with them...
  • Remember the orthodox Jews who flew to Spain in order to watch the match...maybe they knew something we didn't.

    The second leg of the Copa Libertadores final between Boca Juniors and River Plate has been moved more than 6,000 miles away to the Bernabeu in Madrid.

    https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/46392340
  • So the EU is talking about an extension of Article 50, and yesterday Theresa May said that an extension would mean reopening negotiations (which she previously said could not happen).

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Notch said:

    Theo said:

    viewcode said:

    notme said:

    “However, the EU has made clear that the extension would only be offered after parliament had come to a clear conclusion about the type of future relationship it wants.“

    And they can f*ckity f*ck right off. They insisted on sequencing.
    Indeed. God forbid the Parliament of the United Kingdom should actually make a decision for once.
    The Government has done, but the issue is Labour are voting down any deal.
    The Government knew that any agreement it reached would have to be approved by the House of Commons, because that's required by the EU Withdrawal Act. If they have spent so much time until a mere 3 months before the A50 deadline negotiating and then propagandising for a total crock that gets booted into touch by the Commons then that is nobody's fault but the Government's. The Commons has "usual channels" in which the Government is able to keep in regular touch with the opposition parties. When calamity hits because "there was insufficient time to prepare for No Deal", people should remember that. Yes, the government that took 9 months to submit the A50 letter is still in office. A government composed of ministers who look at closed airports and blocked motorways and shortages of food and medicines and blame the Opposition isn't fit to be a government. Yet still we hear that they're going to apply themselves to undertaking further preparations for No Deal after their draft agreement gets rejected by the Commons in a fortnight's time. They've always known that the electorate gave their party less than a majority of Commons seats, and it is well known that they don't even enjoy the confidence of a large number of their own MPs. They've got no excuse whatsoever for their incompetence, which has nothing to do with any imperfections of the Labour party or Jeremy Corbyn.
    Yep. In a sentence, they could and should have reached out to other parties at the beginning of the process (and certainly after losing their majority); even if rebuffed they would be in a stronger position to seek cross-party support now, than they are having progressed such an important issue as a Conservative Party affair.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    justin124 said:

    MikeL said:

    Still a pretty good YouGov for Con.

    7 council by-elections tonight - the Con vote share rose in 6 of them. Does suggest Con support solid.

    Yougov has been giving the Tories a lead of 2% - 7% for several months , and has been somewhat out of line with other pollsters. Maybe a house effect.
    No, Mike is right that the Tories seem to be polling well at the moment. See that by-election last week in Enfield. I think the PM is winning respect from the public for her dogged efforts even if her stock is falling with Tory MPs and members.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour really needs Brexit to move on or die or something. Their position is a nonsense on that but Corbynism has a real fire and passion with many other issues.

    Taking the same point more broadly, I wonder whether part of the explanation for the surprising and unprecedented shift in opinion during the 2017 GE campaign was that what started as a "Brexit election" - where Labour is positioned and polled badly - turned into a contest about everything other than Brexit?

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    rcs1000 said:

    Kerching!

    I think I was the only one on this site betting the A50 time would be extended.
    I've covered myself on the April-June market, but of course a 3 month extension could easily become 4 months...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Having caught up with the polling thanks to Keiran's excellent podcast my guess would now be a general election followed by a Corbyn government.

    Wild horses wouldn't have persuaded me to vote Labour while Corbyn/McDonnell were leading it but at this time that's exactly what I'd do.

    I think they'd push the whole shebang into the long grass for which their voters and most of the country will be eternally grateful.

    My political antenna hasn't always served me well but the mist is clearing and this feels like not just the best way forward but the only one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    So then that YouGov poll is actually

    Con 40 (+1)
    Lab 35 (-1)
    LibDem 10 (+2)
    UKIP 6 (-)

    Magic flaking off Magic Grandpa. Less Dynamo, more Tommy Cooper......
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1068363730990350336
    Theresa May reveals what she hopes to achieve with the debate: close down any compromise with Labour. Interesting strategy, which means she will need the votes of every one of her MPs and also of the DUP, who have said they will vote against and may actually prefer a soft Brexit if it keeps NI aligned with GB.
  • FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1068363730990350336
    Theresa May reveals what she hopes to achieve with the debate: close down any compromise with Labour. Interesting strategy, which means she will need the votes of every one of her MPs and also of the DUP, who have said they will vote against and may actually prefer a soft Brexit if it keeps NI aligned with GB.

    However, on Thursday May repeated her rejection of the “Norway plus” model and suggested she would not be prepared to offer it as a compromise arrangement because it would mean the continuation of freedom of movement. That is regarded in Downing Street as the hardest of the prime minister’s red lines.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065
    rcs1000 said:

    Kerching!

    I think I was the only one on this site betting the A50 time would be extended.
    I am on that too.

    A few months slippage is not unusual in these things.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,746
    edited November 2018
    Can I remind people that I said Labour's posturing and complacency wouldn't play well?

    Now it seems I was right and it is starting to damage them.

    Admittedly, I was as sceptical as everyone else when I saw the original numbers but even when corrected this is still a pretty poor poll for Labour.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited November 2018
    If the EU offer three months extension is TM more or less secure?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    So then that YouGov poll is actually

    Con 40 (+1)
    Lab 35 (-1)
    LibDem 10 (+2)
    UKIP 6 (-)

    Magic flaking off Magic Grandpa. Less Dynamo, more Tommy Cooper......

    Interesting to see Lib Dem’s in double figures. At this rate they will be back in the game by 2043.
  • Also from the Times:

    Among people who voted Leave in 2016:

    28 per cent said that MPs should reject the deal even if it meant continued EU membership
    48 per cent said that they should back it

    Only people out of kilter with the country here are the MPs.

    Do they want to move this on, or do they want to shovel their own shit all over Christmas?

    Their call.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,746
    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Jonathan said:

    So then that YouGov poll is actually

    Con 40 (+1)
    Lab 35 (-1)
    LibDem 10 (+2)
    UKIP 6 (-)

    Magic flaking off Magic Grandpa. Less Dynamo, more Tommy Cooper......

    Interesting to see Lib Dem’s in double figures. At this rate they will be back in the game by 2043.
    Uncle Vince should recast himself as Magic Grandpa Uncle Vince.
  • philiph said:

    If the EU offer three months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Less secure. She could easily be no confidenced if she delays Brexit further.

    A good chunk of the ERG want the clock to run out to No Deal.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    So then that YouGov poll is actually

    Con 40 (+1)
    Lab 35 (-1)
    LibDem 10 (+2)
    UKIP 6 (-)

    Magic flaking off Magic Grandpa. Less Dynamo, more Tommy Cooper......

    Interesting to see Lib Dem’s in double figures. At this rate they will be back in the game by 2043.
    In stark contrast to that Survation poll...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065
    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Not a good look.
    Foxy talking about chicken.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer three months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Less secure. She could easily be no confidenced if she delays Brexit further.

    A good chunk of the ERG want the clock to run out to No Deal.
    I think May, whisper it quietly, is heading for either her Brexit or a no deal Brexit.
  • Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Please don’t insult our intelligence by spreading your campaigning hashtags on here, like you’ve been told to do.

    Just use plain English.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763
    Jonathan said:

    So then that YouGov poll is actually

    Con 40 (+1)
    Lab 35 (-1)
    LibDem 10 (+2)
    UKIP 6 (-)

    Magic flaking off Magic Grandpa. Less Dynamo, more Tommy Cooper......

    Interesting to see Lib Dem’s in double figures. At this rate they will be back in the game by 2043.
    So before the end of Brexit then?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer three months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Less secure. She could easily be no confidenced if she delays Brexit further.

    A good chunk of the ERG want the clock to run out to No Deal.
    I agree. The extension is not helpful at the moment. The longer this goes on the weaker she gets. The twitter generation simply cannot concentrate for that long.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer three months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Less secure. She could easily be no confidenced if she delays Brexit further.

    A good chunk of the ERG want the clock to run out to No Deal.
    I think May, whisper it quietly, is heading for either her Brexit or a no deal Brexit.
    Right now they are the only two options that don't require others to help out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,746
    edited November 2018
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.
    It doesn't:

    1) There isn't time left, even with an extension to A50;

    2) Nobody can agree a question;

    3) The risks of it leading to No Deal are enormous;

    4) No party was elected on a manifesto to hold such a plebiscite, so the risk it would lack legitimacy is a real one;

    5) It would be deeply unpopular in the real world, not that strange planet inhabited by the tenth rate pseudo intellectual Blairite arse licker Adonis.

    As for your second point, you do know Tory backbenchers on their own cannot get this through? They will need at least tacit support from one of Labour, the SNP, the DUP or the Liberal Democrats. This is why Labour's posturing is so irresponsible and as I say, appears to be damaging them.

    So as I also said: The only thing it might offer is an election. I can hear Brenda exploding already.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 27,013
    edited November 2018
    May is now fully in Wonderland, a delightful land of delusion where the impossible becomes possible. Not only is she ignoring all political maths and sanity by insisting she will win the vote, she's doubling down with THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE which she has opted to shriek over and over on national TV during her "debate".

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Ok, she's gambling holding a pair of 4s knowing she either bluffs a win or is gone. So when she loses, she'll be gone. You can't be PM, stake everything on a win, beg for it and then survive a defeat especially a heavy one. And unless the Tories come up with a party unity candidate PDQ it's going to be a fresh election or a very minority Corbyn government.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer three months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Less secure. She could easily be no confidenced if she delays Brexit further.

    A good chunk of the ERG want the clock to run out to No Deal.
    I think May, whisper it quietly, is heading for either her Brexit or a no deal Brexit.
    Right now they are the only two options that don't require others to help out.
    But Labour can position to close one down. So, Jeremy, what is it to be - you are remembered for at least trying to get May's deal over the line? Or you are remembered for going for Hard Brexit?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    philiph said:

    Pulpstar said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer three months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Less secure. She could easily be no confidenced if she delays Brexit further.

    A good chunk of the ERG want the clock to run out to No Deal.
    I think May, whisper it quietly, is heading for either her Brexit or a no deal Brexit.
    Right now they are the only two options that don't require others to help out.
    Now that known dissembler May has ruled out #peoplesvote it's still got to be a live option.
  • ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.
    It doesn't:

    1) There isn't time left, even with an extension to A50;

    2) Nobody can agree a question;

    3) The risks of it leading to No Deal are enormous;

    4) No party was elected on a manifesto to hold such a plebiscite, so the risk it would lack legitimacy is a real one;

    5) It would be deeply unpopular in the real world, not that strange planet inhabited by the tenth rate pseudo intellectual Blairite arse licker Adonis.

    As for your second point, you do know Tory backbenchers on their own cannot get this through? They will need at least tacit support from one of Labour, the SNP, the DUP or the Liberal Democrats. This is why Labour's posturing is so irresponsible and as I say, appears to be damaging them.

    So as I also said: The only thing it might offer is an election. I can hear Brenda exploding already.
    Labour MPs will not vote for something that screws their constituents. Stopping such things happening is why they became Labour MPs. It's neither irresponsible nor damaging as May's deal is not in anyone's interests other than May's
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    If MPs are too chicken to decide and then defer back to "the people"* on the biggest issue of our times, then the people have the right to ask "So what is the point of my MP?"

    *because Brexit was voted for not by people, but by badgers....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,746
    edited November 2018

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Yes.

    Because if we vote down this deal, we leave without one. A general election would be another option, I just can't see it producing a radical change from the current House of Commons - at least, not radical enough to get this deal through.

    It really is that easy - or perhaps I should say, that stark?

    Have a good morning.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717

    May is now fully in Wonderland, a delightful land of delusion where the impossible becomes possible. Not only is she ignoring all political maths and sanity by insisting she will win the vote, she's doubling down with THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE which she has opted to shriek over and over on national TV during her "debate".

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Ok, she's gambling holding a pair of 4s knowing she either bluffs a win or is gone. So when she loses, she'll be gone. You can't be PM, stake everything on a win, beg for it and then survive a defeat especially a heavy one. And unless the Tories come up with a party unity candidate PDQ it's going to be a fresh election or a very minority Corbyn government.

    She hasn't wasted two weeks; more like two years!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    May is now fully in Wonderland, a delightful land of delusion where the impossible becomes possible. Not only is she ignoring all political maths and sanity by insisting she will win the vote, she's doubling down with THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE which she has opted to shriek over and over on national TV during her "debate".

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Ok, she's gambling holding a pair of 4s knowing she either bluffs a win or is gone. So when she loses, she'll be gone. You can't be PM, stake everything on a win, beg for it and then survive a defeat especially a heavy one. And unless the Tories come up with a party unity candidate PDQ it's going to be a fresh election or a very minority Corbyn government.

    Jezza should realise the quickest way to get rid of May is to abstain the vote. The DUP VONC at that point.
    If the vote goes down then Mogg and Foster have a tight grip on the wheel.
  • ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.
    It doesn't:

    1) There isn't time left, even with an extension to A50;

    2) Nobody can agree a question;

    3) The risks of it leading to No Deal are enormous;

    4) No party was elected on a manifesto to hold such a plebiscite, so the risk it would lack legitimacy is a real one;

    5) It would be deeply unpopular in the real world, not that strange planet inhabited by the tenth rate pseudo intellectual Blairite arse licker Adonis.

    As for your second point, you do know Tory backbenchers on their own cannot get this through? They will need at least tacit support from one of Labour, the SNP, the DUP or the Liberal Democrats. This is why Labour's posturing is so irresponsible and as I say, appears to be damaging them.

    So as I also said: The only thing it might offer is an election. I can hear Brenda exploding already.
    Labour MPs will not vote for something that screws their constituents. Stopping such things happening is why they became Labour MPs. It's neither irresponsible nor damaging as May's deal is not in anyone's interests other than May's
    They already have when they voted for Article 50.

    If they want to stop it they’d have to repeal Article 50 - which the EU may not accept anyway.

    Otherwise it’s May’s deal or No Deal.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited November 2018
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    But what question(s)? What voting system? If it’s AV or a French style run off how long are we going to take to educate the electorate on how it works? Otherwise we run the danger of a 50.1/49.9 result with thousands complaining they didn’t understand the system, and our problems would multiply.



  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Please don’t insult our intelligence by spreading your campaigning hashtags on here, like you’ve been told to do.

    Just use plain English.
    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    It was an odd typo, wasn't it? On what sort of keyboards do you confuse 5 with 0? But anyeway, another decent poll for Tories and LibDems, presumably because Brexit is the dominant issue and more people are picking some sort of Tory faction or the super-Remainer LibDems.

    As a reassurance to the Tories that they can carry on squabbling without terminal damage it may work. But I doubt if it tells us much about the next GE, with one or more different leaders, different issues and an unknown economic climate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.
    It doesn't:

    1) There isn't time left, even with an extension to A50;

    2) Nobody can agree a question;

    3) The risks of it leading to No Deal are enormous;

    4) No party was elected on a manifesto to hold such a plebiscite, so the risk it would lack legitimacy is a real one;

    5) It would be deeply unpopular in the real world, not that strange planet inhabited by the tenth rate pseudo intellectual Blairite arse licker Adonis.

    As for your second point, you do know Tory backbenchers on their own cannot get this through? They will need at least tacit support from one of Labour, the SNP, the DUP or the Liberal Democrats. This is why Labour's posturing is so irresponsible and as I say, appears to be damaging them.

    So as I also said: The only thing it might offer is an election. I can hear Brenda exploding already.
    Labour MPs will not vote for something that screws their constituents. Stopping such things happening is why they became Labour MPs. It's neither irresponsible nor damaging as May's deal is not in anyone's interests other than May's
    Which part of May's deal screws labour constituents ?
  • ydoethur said:

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Yes.

    Because if we vote down this deal, we leave without one. A general election would be another option, I just can't see it producing a radical change from the current House of Commons - at least, not radical enough to get this deal through.

    It really is that easy - or perhaps I should say, that stark?

    Have a good morning.
    Except that it isnt. The EU wont negotiate any more bespoke deals - we kmow that. Which leaves adopting a pre-existing deal (EEA) or keeping the existing one. The ONLY scenario that gets a majority in the house is not leaving without one. Having mandated the government to not accept no deal (because take back control) then we're back to where we were at the start. Don't leave or rejoin EFTA. Every other option was fantasy and has been proven to be so.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    May is now fully in Wonderland, a delightful land of delusion where the impossible becomes possible. Not only is she ignoring all political maths and sanity by insisting she will win the vote, she's doubling down with THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE which she has opted to shriek over and over on national TV during her "debate".

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Ok, she's gambling holding a pair of 4s knowing she either bluffs a win or is gone. So when she loses, she'll be gone. You can't be PM, stake everything on a win, beg for it and then survive a defeat especially a heavy one. And unless the Tories come up with a party unity candidate PDQ it's going to be a fresh election or a very minority Corbyn government.

    She hasn't wasted two weeks; more like two years!
    Yeah, because *you* could have done so much better ...

    Too many people pontificate about where shes gone wrong, and how they, or their favourite person, could have done better. Because their vision of Brexit (or not) is brilliant, and just scrunching up your eyes, crossing your fingers and wishing really hard will make it happen.

    May has had to deal with the realities, which are made much more complex by people being unrealistic and doing the above. Yet she's put the work in and got a deal - which is more can be said for the likes of Boris and Davis.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,763

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.
    It doesn't:

    1) There isn't time left, even with an extension to A50;

    2) Nobody can agree a question;

    3) The risks of it leading to No Deal are enormous;

    4) No party was elected on a manifesto to hold such a plebiscite, so the risk it would lack legitimacy is a real one;

    5) It would be deeply unpopular in the real world, not that strange planet inhabited by the tenth rate pseudo intellectual Blairite arse licker Adonis.

    As for your second point, you do know Tory backbenchers on their own cannot get this through? They will need at least tacit support from one of Labour, the SNP, the DUP or the Liberal Democrats. This is why Labour's posturing is so irresponsible and as I say, appears to be damaging them.

    So as I also said: The only thing it might offer is an election. I can hear Brenda exploding already.
    Labour MPs will not vote for something that screws their constituents. Stopping such things happening is why they became Labour MPs. It's neither irresponsible nor damaging as May's deal is not in anyone's interests other than May's
    They already have when they voted for Article 50.

    If they want to stop it they’d have to repeal Article 50 - which the EU may not accept anyway.

    Otherwise it’s May’s deal or No Deal.
    If, as seems very likely to me, the CJEU rules that Article 50 cannot be revoked unilaterally does that make May's position weaker or stronger? I think stronger since the option of either a "peoples' vote" or remain becomes much more complicated. Which would be incredibly ironic since the government has resisted this case at every stage.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Please don’t insult our intelligence by spreading your campaigning hashtags on here, like you’ve been told to do.

    Just use plain English.
    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.
    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,870

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Please don’t insult our intelligence by spreading your campaigning hashtags on here, like you’ve been told to do.

    Just use plain English.
    (makes mental note to use #peoplesvote hashtag more often to wind up #pbtories)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Please don’t insult our intelligence by spreading your campaigning hashtags on here, like you’ve been told to do.

    Just use plain English.
    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.
    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    If May's bill falls, it is the only way to solve Brexit. Neither a GE nor a new Tory leader would take us uny further forward.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    edited November 2018
    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1068363730990350336
    Theresa May reveals what she hopes to achieve with the debate: close down any compromise with Labour. Interesting strategy, which means she will need the votes of every one of her MPs and also of the DUP, who have said they will vote against and may actually prefer a soft Brexit if it keeps NI aligned with GB.

    It's the mass prime time audience she wants; Corbyn is incidental.

    Unlike American Presidents, she isn't able to go on TV to do an 'address to the nation'. I don't know whether she even has that right, or not, but it would be a precedent she couldn't set (outside wartime). If she does a lunchtime press conference it will be watched only by journalists and PB'ers and then filtered through the media and miss most ordinary people. No-one watches PPBs any more; indeed I haven't seen one myself since 2017. Offering a debate with Corbyn is the only way she gets herself an unedited showing on evening weekend TV.

    So she has something to announce during the debate, and the audience isn't really the public, but MPs, and specifically her own MPs (edit/ or perhaps she really does think Labour's are less idiotic than hers). It will be something sufficiently dramatic to influence their vote, and need to be said publicly so they have nowhere to hide. Which can only be to spell out what the government will do, in the event that her deal is voted down, and it will be something her MPs won't like.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Please don’t insult our intelligence by spreading your campaigning hashtags on here, like you’ve been told to do.

    Just use plain English.
    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.
    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    If May's bill falls, it is the only way to solve Brexit. Neither a GE nor a new Tory leader would take us uny further forward.
    An EFTA Supporting Tory leader would also work.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Please don’t insult our intelligence by spreading your campaigning hashtags on here, like you’ve been told to do.

    Just use plain English.
    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.
    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    If May's bill falls, it is the only way to solve Brexit. Neither a GE nor a new Tory leader would take us uny further forward.
    When it falls
  • ydoethur said:

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Yes.

    Because if we vote down this deal, we leave without one. A general election would be another option, I just can't see it producing a radical change from the current House of Commons - at least, not radical enough to get this deal through.

    It really is that easy - or perhaps I should say, that stark?

    Have a good morning.
    Except that it isnt. The EU wont negotiate any more bespoke deals - we kmow that. Which leaves adopting a pre-existing deal (EEA) or keeping the existing one. The ONLY scenario that gets a majority in the house is not leaving without one. Having mandated the government to not accept no deal (because take back control) then we're back to where we were at the start. Don't leave or rejoin EFTA. Every other option was fantasy and has been proven to be so.
    You are completely ignoring the fact that No Deal is the default position. It doesn't need a majority in Parliament. It just needs the other options to fail. The MPs cannot mandate the Government to not accept it any more than they can mandate them to defy gravity.

    Now I hope it doesn't happen, but just because Parliament says it mustn't happen does not mean it won't unless they can force through May's Deal or Remain. Sadly I would suggest NO Deal is far more likely than an EFTA arrangement now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,065
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1068363730990350336
    Theresa May reveals what she hopes to achieve with the debate: close down any compromise with Labour. Interesting strategy, which means she will need the votes of every one of her MPs and also of the DUP, who have said they will vote against and may actually prefer a soft Brexit if it keeps NI aligned with GB.

    It's the mass prime time audience she wants; Corbyn is incidental.

    Unlike American Presidents, she isn't able to go on TV to do an 'address to the nation'. I don't know whether she even has that right, or not, but it would be a precedent she couldn't set (outside wartime). If she does a lunchtime press conference it will be watched only by journalists and PB'ers and then filtered through the media and miss most ordinary people. No-one watches PPBs any more; indeed I haven't seen one myself since 2017. Offering a debate with Corbyn is the only way she gets herself an unedited showing on evening weekend TV.

    So she has something to announce during the debate, and the audience isn't really the public, but MPs, and specifically her own MPs. It will be something sufficiently dramatic to influence their vote. Which can only be to spell out what the government will do, in the event that her deal is voted down, and it will be something her MPs won't like.
    Yes, one or other, possibly both, of May or Corbyn will advocate a #peoplesvote as a gamechanger in such a debate.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Please don’t insult our intelligence by spreading your campaigning hashtags on here, like you’ve been told to do.

    Just use plain English.
    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.
    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    If May's bill falls, it is the only way to solve Brexit. Neither a GE nor a new Tory leader would take us uny further forward.
    I disagree, but again, putting that aside: what’s the exact question, what’s the voting system? It’s all very well promoting a “vote”, but for one to actually happen these nuts and bolts need to be addressed and I see little sign that anyone is doing that.

    And that’s before we deal with the lack of time.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    Pulpstar said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer three months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Less secure. She could easily be no confidenced if she delays Brexit further.

    A good chunk of the ERG want the clock to run out to No Deal.
    I think May, whisper it quietly, is heading for either her Brexit or a no deal Brexit.
    In practice possibly. Mrs May always insists her version is the only version. In a different context that's why she came unstuck in Salzburg. She irritated EU leaders by lecturing them on hers being the only option when they didn't agree with it. Will people accept hers is the only possibility? She is being dishonest about what her "deal" entails. A semi-competent leader of the opposition would make mincemeat of that position in a debate. Jeremy Corbyn? We'll see.
  • May is now fully in Wonderland, a delightful land of delusion where the impossible becomes possible. Not only is she ignoring all political maths and sanity by insisting she will win the vote, she's doubling down with THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE which she has opted to shriek over and over on national TV during her "debate".

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Ok, she's gambling holding a pair of 4s knowing she either bluffs a win or is gone. So when she loses, she'll be gone. You can't be PM, stake everything on a win, beg for it and then survive a defeat especially a heavy one. And unless the Tories come up with a party unity candidate PDQ it's going to be a fresh election or a very minority Corbyn government.

    She hasn't wasted two weeks; more like two years!
    Yeah, because *you* could have done so much better ...

    Too many people pontificate about where shes gone wrong, and how they, or their favourite person, could have done better. Because their vision of Brexit (or not) is brilliant, and just scrunching up your eyes, crossing your fingers and wishing really hard will make it happen.

    May has had to deal with the realities, which are made much more complex by people being unrealistic and doing the above. Yet she's put the work in and got a deal - which is more can be said for the likes of Boris and Davis.
    A lot of people could have done a lot better - including our negotiating team - had they not been instructed to keep asking for unicorn cake.

    The EU red lines were clear and unambiguous. Wasting two years trying to get the immovable to move and insisting that they need us so much that they will fold - think about where else we could have been instead of here.
  • DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.
    It doesn't:

    1) There isn't time left, even with an extension to A50;

    2) Nobody can agree a question;

    3) The risks of it leading to No Deal are enormous;

    4) No party was elected on a manifesto to hold such a plebiscite, so the risk it would lack legitimacy is a real one;

    5) It would be deeply unpopular in the real world, not that strange planet inhabited by the tenth rate pseudo intellectual Blairite arse licker Adonis.

    As for your second point, you do know Tory backbenchers on their own cannot get this through? They will need at least tacit support from one of Labour, the SNP, the DUP or the Liberal Democrats. This is why Labour's posturing is so irresponsible and as I say, appears to be damaging them.

    So as I also said: The only thing it might offer is an election. I can hear Brenda exploding already.
    Labour MPs will not vote for something that screws their constituents. Stopping such things happening is why they became Labour MPs. It's neither irresponsible nor damaging as May's deal is not in anyone's interests other than May's
    They already have when they voted for Article 50.

    If they want to stop it they’d have to repeal Article 50 - which the EU may not accept anyway.

    Otherwise it’s May’s deal or No Deal.
    If, as seems very likely to me, the CJEU rules that Article 50 cannot be revoked unilaterally does that make May's position weaker or stronger? I think stronger since the option of either a "peoples' vote" or remain becomes much more complicated. Which would be incredibly ironic since the government has resisted this case at every stage.
    So like the Miller case then. Each legal attempt by Remania to stop Brexit has ended up strengthening the government’s hand.....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,812
    edited November 2018
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1068363730990350336
    Theresa May reveals what she hopes to achieve with the debate: close down any compromise with Labour. Interesting strategy, which means she will need the votes of every one of her MPs and also of the DUP, who have said they will vote against and may actually prefer a soft Brexit if it keeps NI aligned with GB.

    It's the mass prime time audience she wants; Corbyn is incidental.

    Unlike American Presidents, she isn't able to go on TV to do an 'address to the nation'. I don't know whether she even has that right, or not, but it would be a precedent she couldn't set (outside wartime). If she does a lunchtime press conference it will be watched only by journalists and PB'ers and then filtered through the media and miss most ordinary people. No-one watches PPBs any more; indeed I haven't seen one myself since 2017. Offering a debate with Corbyn is the only way she gets herself an unedited showing on evening weekend TV.

    So she has something to announce during the debate, and the audience isn't really the public, but MPs, and specifically her own MPs. It will be something sufficiently dramatic to influence their vote. Which can only be to spell out what the government will do, in the event that her deal is voted down, and it will be something her MPs won't like.
    May is holding the entire country hostage.

    She set the timeline, by exercising Article 50.
    She set the red lines, which led us inevitably to this juncture.

    Now she demands we support her ugly deal, and threatens a complete economic collapse if we don’t.

    Is that statesmanship?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    Foxy said:



    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.

    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    You might be unwise to dismiss it that quickly, but supporters may be unwise to think it's a panacea. I wonder if the debate after Dec 11 isn't going to evolve to "what kind of People's Vote?" I can see May saying, "OK, let's ask the people" and offering a choice of her deal or no deal. She'd win that, amid a chorus of protest from Remain supporters. Is there a majority to block it? I'm not sure. Or some sort of AV option hoping that it wins as the "middle" option. Either way it looks more promising than simply trying to convert 50 MPs.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
  • welshowl said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Please don’t insult our intelligence by spreading your campaigning hashtags on here, like you’ve been told to do.

    Just use plain English.
    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.
    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    If May's bill falls, it is the only way to solve Brexit. Neither a GE nor a new Tory leader would take us uny further forward.
    I disagree, but again, putting that aside: what’s the exact question, what’s the voting system? It’s all very well promoting a “vote”, but for one to actually happen these nuts and bolts need to be addressed and I see little sign that anyone is doing that.

    And that’s before we deal with the lack of time.
    It’s the Unicorn referendum.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1068363730990350336
    Theresa May reveals what she hopes to achieve with the debate: close down any compromise with Labour. Interesting strategy, which means she will need the votes of every one of her MPs and also of the DUP, who have said they will vote against and may actually prefer a soft Brexit if it keeps NI aligned with GB.

    It's the mass prime time audience she wants; Corbyn is incidental.

    Unlike American Presidents, she isn't able to go on TV to do an 'address to the nation'. I don't know whether she even has that right, or not, but it would be a precedent she couldn't set (outside wartime). If she does a lunchtime press conference it will be watched only by journalists and PB'ers and then filtered through the media and miss most ordinary people. No-one watches PPBs any more; indeed I haven't seen one myself since 2017. Offering a debate with Corbyn is the only way she gets herself an unedited showing on evening weekend TV.

    So she has something to announce during the debate, and the audience isn't really the public, but MPs, and specifically her own MPs (edit/ or perhaps she really does think Labour's are less idiotic than hers). It will be something sufficiently dramatic to influence their vote, and need to be said publicly so they have nowhere to hide. Which can only be to spell out what the government will do, in the event that her deal is voted down, and it will be something her MPs won't like.
    The debate format is her choice. She could easily do a town hall, which is a more appropriate format for a proposition, unlike an election where the politicians are the product. Also bear in mind the MPs see Corbyn and May debate this stuff on a weekly basis. None of that has changed their minds.
  • ydoethur said:

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Yes.

    Because if we vote down this deal, we leave without one. A general election would be another option, I just can't see it producing a radical change from the current House of Commons - at least, not radical enough to get this deal through.

    It really is that easy - or perhaps I should say, that stark?

    Have a good morning.
    Except that it isnt. The EU wont negotiate any more bespoke deals - we kmow that. Which leaves adopting a pre-existing deal (EEA) or keeping the existing one. The ONLY scenario that gets a majority in the house is not leaving without one. Having mandated the government to not accept no deal (because take back control) then we're back to where we were at the start. Don't leave or rejoin EFTA. Every other option was fantasy and has been proven to be so.
    You are completely ignoring the fact that No Deal is the default position. It doesn't need a majority in Parliament. It just needs the other options to fail. The MPs cannot mandate the Government to not accept it any more than they can mandate them to defy gravity.

    Now I hope it doesn't happen, but just because Parliament says it mustn't happen does not mean it won't unless they can force through May's Deal or Remain. Sadly I would suggest NO Deal is far more likely than an EFTA arrangement now.
    I am not ignoring it. I am simply pointing out that options remain available. No Deal is what happens of we do nothing - my view is that the Commons will not allow the government to do nothing especially as the exacting details of just how fucked we are get unboxed in front of them.

    As May is insisting that no further options bar her deal are possible, then her reaction to being heavily defeated will be instructive. Either she says "fine, no deal" at which point she is removed, or says "ok, let's do something else" at which point she is removed. The Commons can and will instruct the government, and if the government refuses the sovereign will of parliament it too can be removed.
  • Foxy said:



    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.

    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    You might be unwise to dismiss it that quickly, but supporters may be unwise to think it's a panacea. I wonder if the debate after Dec 11 isn't going to evolve to "what kind of People's Vote?" I can see May saying, "OK, let's ask the people" and offering a choice of her deal or no deal. She'd win that, amid a chorus of protest from Remain supporters. Is there a majority to block it? I'm not sure. Or some sort of AV option hoping that it wins as the "middle" option. Either way it looks more promising than simply trying to convert 50 MPs.
    I don’t mind debating it, it’s the campaigning hashtags that irritate me.

    This is pb.com, not Facebook or Twitter.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    dr_spyn said:
    Just as well Mrs May didn't call a snap election when she saw the initial figures....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279

    dr_spyn said:
    Just as well Mrs May didn't call a snap election when she saw the initial figures....
    It might concentrate the desperate minds of the "only alternative to a people's vote is another general election" brigade. Labour are still struggling behind The Tories after that General Election last year. There is something about Corbyn which fails to swing voters behind his party.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,717

    May is now fully in Wonderland, a delightful land of delusion where the impossible becomes possible. Not only is she ignoring all political maths and sanity by insisting she will win the vote, she's doubling down with THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE which she has opted to shriek over and over on national TV during her "debate".

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Ok, she's gambling holding a pair of 4s knowing she either bluffs a win or is gone. So when she loses, she'll be gone. You can't be PM, stake everything on a win, beg for it and then survive a defeat especially a heavy one. And unless the Tories come up with a party unity candidate PDQ it's going to be a fresh election or a very minority Corbyn government.

    She hasn't wasted two weeks; more like two years!
    Yeah, because *you* could have done so much better ...

    Too many people pontificate about where shes gone wrong, and how they, or their favourite person, could have done better. Because their vision of Brexit (or not) is brilliant, and just scrunching up your eyes, crossing your fingers and wishing really hard will make it happen.

    May has had to deal with the realities, which are made much more complex by people being unrealistic and doing the above. Yet she's put the work in and got a deal - which is more can be said for the likes of Boris and Davis.
    Well, picking Davis and Johnson can't be described as an act of genius. As many of 'us' said at the time.

    To be fair, many of us, me included, wouldn't have started from here since we think leaving's a bad idea. However, 'we' did, IIRC suggest that starting to talk would be better than triggering Article 50.

    However, as Mr JJ says, we are we are. Personally I think that coming back to the House and the country and saying 'we've exhausted the options in negotiations, but we can't get a deal for the people that's better than membership. What we can do is ensure that no-one comes here without a job offer, or a job.' Or words to that effect. Which, AIUI is more or less what we can do.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    What the fuck?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.

    I think the Tory backbenchers are too chicken to vote it down though.
    Please don’t insult our intelligence by spreading your campaigning hashtags on here, like you’ve been told to do.

    Just use plain English.
    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.
    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    Agreed. And I was on the march.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    ‪Hearing that it is a typo and Labour are in fact on 35%‬

    I'm still amazed.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,911

    Foxy said:



    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.

    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    You might be unwise to dismiss it that quickly, but supporters may be unwise to think it's a panacea. I wonder if the debate after Dec 11 isn't going to evolve to "what kind of People's Vote?" I can see May saying, "OK, let's ask the people" and offering a choice of her deal or no deal. She'd win that, amid a chorus of protest from Remain supporters. Is there a majority to block it? I'm not sure. Or some sort of AV option hoping that it wins as the "middle" option. Either way it looks more promising than simply trying to convert 50 MPs.
    I don’t mind debating it, it’s the campaigning hashtags that irritate me.

    This is pb.com, not Facebook or Twitter.
    The name, not the hashtag, irritates me. It's not a "people's vote" it's a second referendum. People voted in a referendum already and remain lost.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Foxy said:



    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.

    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    You might be unwise to dismiss it that quickly, but supporters may be unwise to think it's a panacea. I wonder if the debate after Dec 11 isn't going to evolve to "what kind of People's Vote?" I can see May saying, "OK, let's ask the people" and offering a choice of her deal or no deal. She'd win that, amid a chorus of protest from Remain supporters. Is there a majority to block it? I'm not sure. Or some sort of AV option hoping that it wins as the "middle" option. Either way it looks more promising than simply trying to convert 50 MPs.
    If there was ever going to be another Referendum from this Conervative Govt., it was only ever going to be "May's Existing/Generic New Leader's Tweaked Deal or No Deal"? Nothing else honours the June 2016 Referendum result. Do Remainers boycott? Do they vote No Deal, for a laugh? Or do they vote for the Deal, as the least worse outcome? Whichever way, comfortable win for Deal.

    May runs the Cafe from Hell. "No, you cannot see the menu. It's a shit sandwich, or starve. What's it to be?"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited November 2018
    kyf_100 said:

    Foxy said:



    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.

    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    You might be unwise to dismiss it that quickly, but supporters may be unwise to think it's a panacea. I wonder if the debate after Dec 11 isn't going to evolve to "what kind of People's Vote?" I can see May saying, "OK, let's ask the people" and offering a choice of her deal or no deal. She'd win that, amid a chorus of protest from Remain supporters. Is there a majority to block it? I'm not sure. Or some sort of AV option hoping that it wins as the "middle" option. Either way it looks more promising than simply trying to convert 50 MPs.
    I don’t mind debating it, it’s the campaigning hashtags that irritate me.

    This is pb.com, not Facebook or Twitter.
    The name, not the hashtag, irritates me. It's not a "people's vote" it's a second referendum. People voted in a referendum already and remain lost.
    Well technically it would be the third referendum on our relationship with our European friends.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited November 2018
    dr_spyn said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Just as well Mrs May didn't call a snap election when she saw the initial figures....
    It might concentrate the desperate minds of the "only alternative to a people's vote is another general election" brigade. Labour are still struggling behind The Tories after that General Election last year. There is something about Corbyn which fails to swing voters behind his party.
    He did pretty well at it last time..

    Can't speak for others but I'd still be fairly confident and up for an election.
  • kyf_100 said:

    Foxy said:



    The #peoplesvote is a specific campaign, and one well understood and that has grown over the course of a year from a fringe campaign to one that is central to political debate, backed by the second largest demonstration in British history a few weeks ago.

    I dont think it particularly likely, as I think the tory backbenchers have the spines of jellyfish, but it may well be the only way to resolve the issue. A GE or new Tory leader would not address the specific issue.

    Stop it.

    It’s embarrassing and irritating.
    You might be unwise to dismiss it that quickly, but supporters may be unwise to think it's a panacea. I wonder if the debate after Dec 11 isn't going to evolve to "what kind of People's Vote?" I can see May saying, "OK, let's ask the people" and offering a choice of her deal or no deal. She'd win that, amid a chorus of protest from Remain supporters. Is there a majority to block it? I'm not sure. Or some sort of AV option hoping that it wins as the "middle" option. Either way it looks more promising than simply trying to convert 50 MPs.
    I don’t mind debating it, it’s the campaigning hashtags that irritate me.

    This is pb.com, not Facebook or Twitter.
    The name, not the hashtag, irritates me. It's not a "people's vote" it's a second referendum. People voted in a referendum already and remain lost.
    Well technically it would be the third referendum on our relationship with our European friends.
    Second on EU membership.
  • kle4 said:

    What the fuck?
    That's the version with Richard Burgon as party leader and wingnut-in-chief Williamson as Chancellor, Home Secretary & Ministry of Truth supremo.

    Tory's on 40% can surely only be some TMay ratings uplift as the party looks a split shambles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Voters are clearly getting fed up with Labour points scoring to try and get a general election rather than either focusing on getting a decent Brexit Deal and backing the government or committing to a second EU referendum like the LDs.

    Hence the Tories and LDs are up at Labour's expense. Coupled with the Delta poll last night showing May's Deal clearly preferred to Remain or No Deal head to head it is encouraging for May
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,545
    edited November 2018

    May is now fully in Wonderland, a delightful land of delusion where the impossible becomes possible. Not only is she ignoring all political maths and sanity by insisting she will win the vote, she's doubling down with THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE which she has opted to shriek over and over on national TV during her "debate".

    At which point she gets defeated massively. Having wasted 2 weeks the UK doesn't have, and having demeaned her office begging for miracles. Having at that point ruled out every possible option other than her deal as written what does she do then? Say "no deal it is" and "the policy of her Majesty's government is to spend the next 3 months saying "you voted for this, you got this" and eating popcorn as the UK slides towards the cliff edge that the government knows will smash us?

    Ok, she's gambling holding a pair of 4s knowing she either bluffs a win or is gone. So when she loses, she'll be gone. You can't be PM, stake everything on a win, beg for it and then survive a defeat especially a heavy one. And unless the Tories come up with a party unity candidate PDQ it's going to be a fresh election or a very minority Corbyn government.

    She hasn't wasted two weeks; more like two years!
    Yeah, because *you* could have done so much better ...

    Too many people pontificate about where shes gone wrong, and how they, or their favourite person, could have done better. Because their vision of Brexit (or not) is brilliant, and just scrunching up your eyes, crossing your fingers and wishing really hard will make it happen.

    May has had to deal with the realities, which are made much more complex by people being unrealistic and doing the above. Yet she's put the work in and got a deal - which is more can be said for the likes of Boris and Davis.
    She hasn't got a deal though. What she has got, which is exactly what the EU has proposed all the long, is a two year extension of the status quo and the intention to negotiate something for the future. She pretends it's cake and eat it, and it's in the bag.

    We will eventually sign the Withdrawal Agreement, because we have never really had a choice about that, then Brexit, and finally discover there's no deal there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_P said:
    She's entirely right. Something If it come up to avoid no deal but that's not certain and a lot of people are falsely saying they won't risk no deal.

    May actually won't risk no deal. Indeed, she is criticised because she was just bluffing when she said no deal was better than a bad deal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    So then that YouGov poll is actually

    Con 40 (+1)
    Lab 35 (-1)
    LibDem 10 (+2)
    UKIP 6 (-)

    Magic flaking off Magic Grandpa. Less Dynamo, more Tommy Cooper......

    Still a 1.5% swing from Labour to the Tories since the general election, enough for a May majority
  • kle4 said:

    ‪Hearing that it is a typo and Labour are in fact on 35%‬

    I'm still amazed.
    If you are a BOB like me, then Labour is a road-block currently to getting on with it but it's also not a Lib Dem stop Brexit position either.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,957
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    Voters are clearly getting fed up with Labour points scoring to try and get a general election rather than either focusing on getting a decent Brexit Deal and backing the government or committing to a second EU referendum like the LDs.

    Hence the Tories and LDs are up at Labour's expense. Coupled with the Delta poll last night showing May's Deal clearly preferred to Remain or No Deal head to head it is encouraging for May
    Let us see what other polls show, I mean a 1% change is roundings or just sample variation.

    We should be due an Opinium poll this weekend, we might see some other polls as well.
  • kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's entirely right. Something If it come up to avoid no deal but that's not certain and a lot of people are falsely saying they won't risk no deal.

    May actually won't risk no deal. Indeed, she is criticised because she was just bluffing when she said no deal was better than a bad deal.
    Of course. Could hardly say any deal is better than a no deal?????
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    The only change to the deal that the EU will offer is to make it more BINO and less Leave. Is anyone barmy enough to think otherwise? FOM remains a political imperative for them.

    They're happy with the current deal because it kicks the can further down the road and they hope (possibly expect) that a constant barrage of pro-EU propaganda will help this. A change of government, a second referendum - they all offer hope that the UK Parliament will change its mind. Time is therefore on their side.

    TM is not anti-Europe, she is vaguely pro-EU but she needs camouflage and time to steer that course

    Being honest now, most proponents of a second referendum are bitter losers. Democracy is less important than getting their own way, and if democracy has to suffer, so be it. After all, they know best, remember.


  • I am not ignoring it. I am simply pointing out that options remain available. No Deal is what happens of we do nothing - my view is that the Commons will not allow the government to do nothing especially as the exacting details of just how fucked we are get unboxed in front of them.

    As May is insisting that no further options bar her deal are possible, then her reaction to being heavily defeated will be instructive. Either she says "fine, no deal" at which point she is removed, or says "ok, let's do something else" at which point she is removed. The Commons can and will instruct the government, and if the government refuses the sovereign will of parliament it too can be removed.

    You said that any other option apart from Remain or EFTA was fantasy. This is not the case.

    If May decides that No Deal is the only option having seen all other options either voted down or being unacceptable to her then the only way to change that is to get rid of her. Parliament cannot force her to do something she does not want to do in the way you suggest.

    For May to go there are only two options.

    The first is that she is got rid of by her own party. The only people likely to do that are the ERG who would certainly not be averse to No Deal. So getting rid of May is unlikely to make No Deal any less likely.

    The second is she loses a VONC in the House. Given that once her deal is gone there is very little chance of either her own party or the DUP wanting an election it seems extremely unlikely there are the numbers for that.

    And as long as she stays in position (even if not in power) then a No Deal remains very likely.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited November 2018
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    philiph said:

    If the EU offer the months extension is TM more or less secure?

    Realisitically the only thing it offers time for is a general election.

    In theory, on a Deal or No Deal question with Labour led by a Communist clown and a dithering old fool, May would have every chance of winning such an election.

    However, it's Theresa May we're talking about here.

    So I would say, she's toast in that scenario.
    Yes, or a #peoplesvote, which is the most likely consequence if the Commons rejects May's deal.
    It doesn't:

    1) There isn't time left, even with an extension to A50;

    2) Nobody can agree a question;

    3) The risks of it leading to No Deal are enormous;

    4) No party was elected on a manifesto to hold such a plebiscite, so the risk it would lack legitimacy is a real one;

    5) It would be deeply unpopular in the real world, not that strange planet inhabited by the tenth rate pseudo intellectual Blairite arse licker Adonis.

    As for your second point, you do know Tory backbenchers on their own cannot get this through? They will need at least tacit support from one of Labour, the SNP, the DUP or the Liberal Democrats. This is why Labour's posturing is so irresponsible and as I say, appears to be damaging them.

    So as I also said: The only thing it might offer is an election. I can hear Brenda exploding already.
    Labour MPs will not vote for something that screws their constituents. Stopping such things happening is why they became Labour MPs. It's neither irresponsible nor damaging as May's deal is not in anyone's interests other than May's
    Which part of May's deal screws labour constituents ?
    Even if it does there may only be a choice between varieties of being screwed. Happens all the time. After all, ideally they'd like no Tory pm at all, but if one is unavoidable which one would be worse, May or Boris? If a new labour deal is not possible pick a version of screwed or roll the dice on a no deal ref.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    HYUFD said:

    So then that YouGov poll is actually

    Con 40 (+1)
    Lab 35 (-1)
    LibDem 10 (+2)
    UKIP 6 (-)

    Magic flaking off Magic Grandpa. Less Dynamo, more Tommy Cooper......

    Still a 1.5% swing from Labour to the Tories since the general election, enough for a May majority
    The Tories are lucky that when people think Tory they are looking at the PM, rather than some of the unsavoury idiots behind her. If she is deposed I would expect to see these figures shift , and not in a way that her opponents would like.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,081
    HYUFD said:

    Voters are clearly getting fed up with Labour points scoring to try and get a general election rather than either focusing on getting a decent Brexit Deal and backing the government or committing to a second EU referendum like the LDs.

    Hence the Tories and LDs are up at Labour's expense. Coupled with the Delta poll last night showing May's Deal clearly preferred to Remain or No Deal head to head it is encouraging for May
    Or, the vice is starting to squeeze both Labour strong remainers and strong leavers away, as it stays perched on the fence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    IanB2 said:

    FF43 said:

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1068363730990350336
    Theresa May reveals what she hopes to achieve with the debate: close down any compromise with Labour. Interesting strategy, which means she will need the votes of every one of her MPs and also of the DUP, who have said they will vote against and may actually prefer a soft Brexit if it keeps NI aligned with GB.

    It's the mass prime time audience she wants; Corbyn is incidental.

    Unlike American Presidents, she isn't able to go on TV to do an 'address to the nation'. I don't know whether she even has that right, or not, but it would be a precedent she couldn't set (outside wartime). If she does a lunchtime press conference it will be watched only by journalists and PB'ers and then filtered through the media and miss most ordinary people. No-one watches PPBs any more; indeed I haven't seen one myself since 2017. Offering a debate with Corbyn is the only way she gets herself an unedited showing on evening weekend TV.

    So she has something to announce during the debate, and the audience isn't really the public, but MPs, and specifically her own MPs. It will be something sufficiently dramatic to influence their vote. Which can only be to spell out what the government will do, in the event that her deal is voted down, and it will be something her MPs won't like.
    May is holding the entire country hostage.

    She set the timeline, by exercising Article 50.
    She set the red lines, which led us inevitably to this juncture.

    Now she demands we support her ugly deal, and threatens a complete economic collapse if we don’t.

    Is that statesmanship?
    Yes.

    Is it good statesmanship? No.

    But the choices are that they are. Blame and vilification can wait until we are out of the lion's mouth, not before. Or we can gamble that the lion is toothless, maybe we'll get lucky.
This discussion has been closed.