politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the ERG plotters get their 48 letters today and TMay loses
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I think that must be correct. Otherwise, any member State could play cat and mouse with the rest.DavidL said:
I think that that is an unlikely conclusion both because of the wording of Article 50 and the general law as regards notices.grabcocque said:Government once again fails to halt the court cases that will rule Brexit revocable:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-fails-again-to-block-court-case-that-could-allow-the-uk-to-reverse-brexit-2018-11
Art 50 requires unanimity to extend the period. How is it consistent with that to allow the party giving notice to withdraw it unilaterally (and then possibly serve notice again once they are ready)?
In general law, eg tenancies, if a party gives notice of intention to quit or conclude the tenancy the other party is allowed to rely upon that and hold them to it. The EU have responded to our notice by negotiating (after a fashion) with us for 2 years. They have relied upon the notice which they insisted upon before they would even start discussions. They can hold us to it.
Of course the CJEU is more like a political forum than a real court but I can't imagine that they will want to leave the EU in such an uncertain position.0 -
(See my reply to WG)Richard_Nabavi said:
No, it means no transition, we crash out in utter chaos in a few weeks' time, unless the EU can be persuaded to change their minds or (more likely, but still not very likely) can be persuaded to agree to some kind of 'clarification' which keeps the DUP happy. Unfortunately I think the entrenched positions of various MPs now mean that even that wouldn't work.TheWhiteRabbit said:What does it mean to not have a backstop?
The UK enters transition (presumably) and if we can't agree a long term partnership, it's no deal - is that the idea?0 -
The case against O'Rourke running for the Democratic nomination:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/20/beto-orourke-2020-president-campaign-analysis-2226390 -
What happens if HM Govt puts the deal-minus-backstop to a vote, and it carries?
Ball is in Ireland's court now. Accept the backstopless deal or cause no deal chaos, Leo. Your call. Choose wisely.0 -
Like the current deal with some black marker pen through all the sections about backstops.TheWhiteRabbit said:
I mean those people who think that TM could have got a WA "without a backstop" - what does that look lik?williamglenn said:
No, if there's no backstop then there's a no deal crash out next March.TheWhiteRabbit said:What does it mean to not have a backstop?
The UK enters transition (presumably) and if we can't agree a long term partnership, it's no deal - is that the idea?0 -
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.0 -
I think the wording in the second part of Art 50 about unanimous consent by MSs is of great significance here. Of course the EU could agree to us withdrawing the notice but it would require unanimity.grabcocque said:
The CJEU usually rules in a way which grants more power to the commission. Bearing that in mind, I think they will rule something like thus:DavidL said:
I think that that is an unlikely conclusion both because of the wording of Article 50 and the general law as regards notices.grabcocque said:Government once again fails to halt the court cases that will rule Brexit revocable:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-fails-again-to-block-court-case-that-could-allow-the-uk-to-reverse-brexit-2018-11
Art 50 requires unanimity to extend the period. How is it consistent with that to allow the party giving notice to withdraw it unilaterally (and then possibly serve notice again once they are ready)?
In general law, eg tenancies, if a party gives notice of intention to quit or conclude the tenancy the other party is allowed to rely upon that and hold them to it. The EU have responded to our notice by negotiating (after a fashion) with us for 2 years. They have relied upon the notice which they insisted upon before they would even start discussions. They can hold us to it.
Of course the CJEU is more like a political forum than a real court but I can't imagine that they will want to leave the EU in such an uncertain position.
A50 cannot be unilaterally revoked
A50 can be revoked by bilateral agreement with the Commission, with the approval of the Council,
The agreement may include enjoining us not to invoke Article 50 again for some lengthy period.0 -
Something like this, I think:TheWhiteRabbit said:
I mean those people who think that TM could have got a WA "without a backstop" - what does that look lik?williamglenn said:
No, if there's no backstop then there's a no deal crash out next March.TheWhiteRabbit said:What does it mean to not have a backstop?
The UK enters transition (presumably) and if we can't agree a long term partnership, it's no deal - is that the idea?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/Oftheunicorn.jpg
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And if (/when) the answer is 'fine, come back when you're ready', what then ?Charles said:
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverageRichard_Nabavi said:
Why would she do that? She actually wants to get this through parliament.Philip_Thompson said:
I think David Davis and Raab did suggest it. I think the EU tried their luck and May and Robbins fell apart like first two little pigs houses getting blown down by the big bad wolf. If May wasn't so desparate to get results after her disastrous election she could have said no to the backstop when they proposed it.Richard_Nabavi said:
And you don't think Theresa May, Olly Robbins, David Davis, or Dominic Raab have suggested such a deal to the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
An agreement that neither of us would implement a hard border, an agreement to work together on solutions to avoid it and an agreement to co-operate and punish to the full extent of the law any criminals who break the law and don't pay their taxes which is all customs duties are.TOPPING said:
What would you have in place of the backstop?grabcocque said:In order for something like this deal to pass, somebody is going to negotiate away the godforsaken backstop.
It doesn't make any sense to ask the woman whose deep and enduring incompetence ensured it made it in the first place, to be the person responsible for negotiating it away again.
Really, this idea that Theresa May screwed up the negotiations by not being tough enough is the most ludicrous nonsense. I actually agree that the backstop is daft, but the idea that the EU could be persuaded to drop it if only we'd shouted louder is off-the-wall raving bonkers.0 -
Labour surge 7 points ahead in latest Survation / GMB poll:
Labour: 44%
Conservative: 37%
Liberal Democrats: 9%
SNP: 3%
UKIP: 3%
Greens: 2%0 -
Paradoxically, scrapping A50 might make it easier to leave.grabcocque said:
I can imagine the Council deciding to redraft or remove article 50 at some point. It was meant to symbolic, it wasn't actually meant to be used.TOPPING said:
This is why we need to leave and if, at some point in the future we decide to remain we will see what terms we want to do so or be allowed to do.grabcocque said:
The CJEU usually rules in a way which grants more power to the commission. Bearing that in mind, I think they will rule something like thus:DavidL said:
I think that that is an unlikely conclusion both because of the wording of Article 50 and the general law as regards notices.grabcocque said:Government once again fails to halt the court cases that will rule Brexit revocable:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-fails-again-to-block-court-case-that-could-allow-the-uk-to-reverse-brexit-2018-11
Art 50 requires unanimity to extend the period. How is it consistent with that to allow the party giving notice to withdraw it unilaterally (and then possibly serve notice again once they are ready)?
In general law, eg tenancies, if a party gives notice of intention to quit or conclude the tenancy the other party is allowed to rely upon that and hold them to it. The EU have responded to our notice by negotiating (after a fashion) with us for 2 years. They have relied upon the notice which they insisted upon before they would even start discussions. They can hold us to it.
Of course the CJEU is more like a political forum than a real court but I can't imagine that they will want to leave the EU in such an uncertain position.
A50 cannot be unilaterally revoked
A50 can be revoked by bilateral agreement with the Commission, with the approval of the Council,
The agreement may include enjoining us not to invoke Article 50 again for some lengthy period.
We cannot cock around with our various treaty obligations and agreements because each time we do we weaken our negotiating position for next time round as people, simply, won't believe we would be acting in good faith and would insert, as you say, a host of penal clauses.0 -
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.0 -
Very low figure for the SNP. They are usually 4 and occasionally 5%. If accurate there would be a lot of Labour gains in Scotland.grabcocque said:Labour surge 7 points ahead in latest Survation / GMB poll:
Labour: 44%
Conservative: 37%
Liberal Democrats: 9%
SNP: 3%
UKIP: 3%
Greens: 2%0 -
Between this poll and Brexit, my considered conclusion is that we're fucked.grabcocque said:Labour surge 7 points ahead in latest Survation / GMB poll:
Labour: 44%
Conservative: 37%
Liberal Democrats: 9%
SNP: 3%
UKIP: 3%
Greens: 2%0 -
Too busy for hypotheticals. Where we are today this isn’t plausibleNigelb said:
And if (/when) the answer is 'fine, come back when you're ready', what then ?Charles said:
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverageRichard_Nabavi said:
Why would she do that? She actually wants to get this through parliament.Philip_Thompson said:
I think David Davis and Raab did suggest it. I think the EU tried their luck and May and Robbins fell apart like first two little pigs houses getting blown down by the big bad wolf. If May wasn't so desparate to get results after her disastrous election she could have said no to the backstop when they proposed it.Richard_Nabavi said:
And you don't think Theresa May, Olly Robbins, David Davis, or Dominic Raab have suggested such a deal to the EU?Philip_Thompson said:
An agreement that neither of us would implement a hard border, an agreement to work together on solutions to avoid it and an agreement to co-operate and punish to the full extent of the law any criminals who break the law and don't pay their taxes which is all customs duties are.TOPPING said:
What would you have in place of the backstop?grabcocque said:In order for something like this deal to pass, somebody is going to negotiate away the godforsaken backstop.
It doesn't make any sense to ask the woman whose deep and enduring incompetence ensured it made it in the first place, to be the person responsible for negotiating it away again.
Really, this idea that Theresa May screwed up the negotiations by not being tough enough is the most ludicrous nonsense. I actually agree that the backstop is daft, but the idea that the EU could be persuaded to drop it if only we'd shouted louder is off-the-wall raving bonkers.0 -
YepPulpstar said:
Between this poll and Brexit, my considered conclusion is that we're fucked.grabcocque said:Labour surge 7 points ahead in latest Survation / GMB poll:
Labour: 44%
Conservative: 37%
Liberal Democrats: 9%
SNP: 3%
UKIP: 3%
Greens: 2%0 -
grabcocque said:
Labour surge 7 points ahead in latest Survation / GMB poll:
Labour: 44%
Conservative: 37%
Liberal Democrats: 9%
SNP: 3%
UKIP: 3%
Greens: 2%
Broken, sleazy, divided, back stabbing Tories on the slide...0 -
BoJo loses his seat according to electoral calculus.grabcocque said:Labour surge 7 points ahead in latest Survation / GMB poll:
Labour: 44%
Conservative: 37%
Liberal Democrats: 9%
SNP: 3%
UKIP: 3%
Greens: 2%0 -
Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.0 -
Would that be a decision taken by QMV?grabcocque said:
The CJEU usually rules in a way which grants more power to the commission. Bearing that in mind, I think they will rule something like thus:DavidL said:
I think that that is an unlikely conclusion both because of the wording of Article 50 and the general law as regards notices.grabcocque said:Government once again fails to halt the court cases that will rule Brexit revocable:
http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-fails-again-to-block-court-case-that-could-allow-the-uk-to-reverse-brexit-2018-11
Art 50 requires unanimity to extend the period. How is it consistent with that to allow the party giving notice to withdraw it unilaterally (and then possibly serve notice again once they are ready)?
In general law, eg tenancies, if a party gives notice of intention to quit or conclude the tenancy the other party is allowed to rely upon that and hold them to it. The EU have responded to our notice by negotiating (after a fashion) with us for 2 years. They have relied upon the notice which they insisted upon before they would even start discussions. They can hold us to it.
Of course the CJEU is more like a political forum than a real court but I can't imagine that they will want to leave the EU in such an uncertain position.
A50 cannot be unilaterally revoked
A50 can be revoked by bilateral agreement with the Commission, with the approval of the Council,
The agreement may include enjoining us not to invoke Article 50 again for some lengthy period.
It's not one "where the Treaties provide otherwise", after all.
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I like this biography of Boris Johnson https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/10648772947858350090
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Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.0 -
The Tories need to do a deal with May where they
a) Get her deal over the line (2nd ref or No Deal Brexit are both complete disasters for them) in exchange for her going once the deal is over the line.0 -
Apologies. That'll teach me to believe what I read on Twitter.Sean_F said:Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.0 -
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)0 -
I've just put my life savings on Labour most seats!grabcocque said:
Apologies. That'll teach me to believe what I read on Twitter.Sean_F said:Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.
/Joke0 -
It was just some Labour activist trolling.grabcocque said:
Apologies. That'll teach me to believe what I read on Twitter.Sean_F said:Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.
I wouldn't be surprised if a Survation poll did put Labour 7% ahead right now, although the UKIP score would be much higher than 3%.0 -
Ok - old pollgrabcocque said:Labour surge 7 points ahead in latest Survation / GMB poll:
Labour: 44%
Conservative: 37%
Liberal Democrats: 9%
SNP: 3%
UKIP: 3%
Greens: 2%0 -
It amazing how tw@tter can spread fake news. Some rando with hardly any followers tweets this 20hrs ago and of course people jump all over it and a day later it makes its way onto PB.Sean_F said:Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.0 -
Still, BoJo losing his seat. I want to believe.
If only the gods hadn't abandoned us.
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A monstrous basilisk that grew up into BoJo.grabcocque said:I like this biography of Boris Johnson https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1064877294785835009
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Hard to disagree with that. Interesting stats about the amount of progress the Dems made at State level too. It may not have been a blue wave but the republicans got seriously wet.Nigelb said:The case against O'Rourke running for the Democratic nomination:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/20/beto-orourke-2020-president-campaign-analysis-2226390 -
I was surprised that Ukip weren't a bit higher than 3% - but, yeah, we all fell for it.Sean_F said:
It was just some Labour activist trolling.grabcocque said:
Apologies. That'll teach me to believe what I read on Twitter.Sean_F said:Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.
I wouldn't be surprised if a Survation poll did put Labour 7% ahead right now, although the UKIP score would be much higher than 3%.0 -
Just logged on are we still at 48-n letters?0
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Who cares? Facebook is down.Benpointer said:Just logged on are we still at 48-n letters?
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Because of Brexit?Beverley_C said:
Who cares? Facebook is down.Benpointer said:Just logged on are we still at 48-n letters?
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We told them we were leaving and invoked A50grabcocque said:Still, BoJo losing his seat. I want to believe.
If only the gods hadn't abandoned us.
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Even if it was true that the EU suffered most, that would be pretty cold comfort for us. No deal hurts everyone.Scott_P said:0 -
Gibraltar isn’t part of the UK at all.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)0 -
I don't really know what motivates UKIP voters any more. Since the party wandered off into the toxic shallows of gammon-hued islamoscepticism it's difficult to reason about how these people will vote. If they vote.0
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It's a British Overseas Territory. Not part of the UK. But it's treated as part of the South West for census purposes.williamglenn said:
Gibraltar isn’t part of the UK at all.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)0 -
It must be. What else could explain it?FrancisUrquhart said:
Because of Brexit?Beverley_C said:
Who cares? Facebook is down.Benpointer said:Just logged on are we still at 48-n letters?
In any case, for most people, it is probably more of an annoyance than Brexit.0 -
'lol'Sean_F said:Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.
I remember Tim, formerly of this parish, hyping a Labour lead poll in the run up to the 2010 election. Lots of 'if these rumours are true' hyperbole.
Probably a banning offence if you think about it.0 -
For those of you who Reddit, Sebastian Payne of the FT is about to do an "Ask Me Anything": https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/9yspe4/im_sebastian_payne_and_i_write_editorials_and/ . He's quite a cogent and engaging writer, so it may be worth following.
Also, Sunil, he'll answer questions about trains.0 -
grabcocque said:
I didn't do it on purpose. I posted it in good faith.BannedInParis said:
'lol'Sean_F said:Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.
I remember Tim, formerly of this parish, hyping a Labour lead poll in the run up to the 2010 election. Lots of 'if these rumours are true' hyperbole.
Probably a banning offence if you think about it.
Don't come for me. I AM ARMED.
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I think you mean the EU Parliament elections - it's not in the UK Census.grabcocque said:
It's a British Overseas Territory. Not part of the UK. But it's treated as part of the South West for census purposes.williamglenn said:
Gibraltar isn’t part of the UK at all.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)0 -
I didn't do it on purpose. I posted it in good faith.BannedInParis said:
'lol'Sean_F said:Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.
I remember Tim, formerly of this parish, hyping a Labour lead poll in the run up to the 2010 election. Lots of 'if these rumours are true' hyperbole.
Probably a banning offence if you think about it.
Don't come for me. I AM ARMED.0 -
Yeah, that makes sense. The population of the Gibraltar was included in the population of the south west to work out how many MEPs it got.tlg86 said:
I think you mean the EU Parliament elections - it's not in the UK Census.grabcocque said:
It's a British Overseas Territory. Not part of the UK. But it's treated as part of the South West for census purposes.williamglenn said:
Gibraltar isn’t part of the UK at all.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)0 -
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.0 -
The real problem is that it's not a question of who is right, it's a question of what the EU and Ireland will accept.TOPPING said:We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.0 -
George Osborne posted a poll in good faith and he's apologised.0
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In a time when Labour didn't have issues with Jews,
Clement Attlee, the Labour prime minister whose government founded the welfare state, looked after a child refugee who escaped from the Nazis in the months leading up to the second world war, it can be revealed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/20/clement-attlee-child-refugee-paul-willer-fled-nazis-19390 -
Who is 'right' in Ireland ? It's a good question - one you can look back over the last thousand years at so far as British (And previously Norman, with a mild sprinkling of Dutch) involvement is concerned.Richard_Nabavi said:
The real problem is that it's not a question of who is right, it's a question of what the EU and Ireland will accept.TOPPING said:We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.0 -
0
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Wasn't it a fake Lib Dem lead at the height of the Cleggasm? I seem to recall numerous 'Lib Dems gain Witney on these numbers' posts from tim.BannedInParis said:
'lol'Sean_F said:Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.
I remember Tim, formerly of this parish, hyping a Labour lead poll in the run up to the 2010 election. Lots of 'if these rumours are true' hyperbole.
Probably a banning offence if you think about it.0 -
Who do you think you are kidding Mr Andy!!!AndyJS said:
It's not the funniest vintage comedy show IMO but it's miles better than most new comedy.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm 36 and while I get the reference it doesn't really mean anything to me. Never seen the show.Pulpstar said:
Yes it's been on TV plenty enough for anyone in their 30s to get it.El_Capitano said:https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1064877326691954688
Fun cover, though I do wonder if many people under the age of 50 get Dad's Army references.0 -
That doesn't matter either it is if the WTO accepts there is a security angle.Richard_Nabavi said:
The real problem is that it's not a question of who is right, it's a question of what the EU and Ireland will accept.TOPPING said:We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
Not a gamble May can accept.0 -
not aged well....grabcocque said:Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
What's the timetable for the deal reaching the Commons?
F1: just the winner's market up. Hopefully the rest will be up soon.0 -
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not aged well....grabcocque said:Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...0 -
Not strictly fake news, more (very) old news.TheScreamingEagles said:THAT SURVATION POLL IS FAKE NEWS
https://twitter.com/survation/status/1064822584238313472?s=210 -
The Spanish complaint today is the wording in the WDA makes it look like it iswilliamglenn said:
Gibraltar isn’t part of the UK at all.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
(But it was a joke anyway)0 -
On the most recent polls Jezza will be PMDavidL said:
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not aged well....grabcocque said:Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...0 -
Trusted traveller doesTOPPING said:
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.0 -
There were two polls out over the weekend giving Labour leads of 3% and 4%. Beyond that , I suspect that the polls have tended to flatter the Tories as a result of Brexit effectively freezing out the Opposition parties from day to day commentary.DavidL said:
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not aged well....grabcocque said:Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...0 -
A unicorn is just a rhino with a good PR agency......Richard_Nabavi said:
Something like this, I think:TheWhiteRabbit said:
I mean those people who think that TM could have got a WA "without a backstop" - what does that look lik?williamglenn said:
No, if there's no backstop then there's a no deal crash out next March.TheWhiteRabbit said:What does it mean to not have a backstop?
The UK enters transition (presumably) and if we can't agree a long term partnership, it's no deal - is that the idea?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/Oftheunicorn.jpg0 -
You don't need to check the ones you trust, it is the ones you don't trust that need checking.Charles said:
Trusted traveller doesTOPPING said:
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
If you rely on the magic technology who checks the rest who just wander across.0 -
The Labour opposition is hardly frozen out - it just doesn't have a clue what to say on Brexit. Witness Magic Grandpa on SKY.....justin124 said:
There were two polls out over the weekend giving Labour leads of 3% and 4%. Beyond that , I suspect that the polls have tended to flatter the Tories as a result of Brexit effectively freezing out the Opposition parties from day to day commentary.DavidL said:
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not aged well....grabcocque said:Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...0 -
quite.FrancisUrquhart said:grabcocque said:
I didn't do it on purpose. I posted it in good faith.BannedInParis said:
'lol'Sean_F said:Fake News Alert.
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.
I remember Tim, formerly of this parish, hyping a Labour lead poll in the run up to the 2010 election. Lots of 'if these rumours are true' hyperbole.
Probably a banning offence if you think about it.
Don't come for me. I AM ARMED.0 -
I doubt that many people - other than political anoraks - have noticed them much at all.MarqueeMark said:
The Labour opposition is hardly frozen out - it just doesn't have a clue what to say on Brexit. Witness Magic Grandpa on SKY.....justin124 said:
There were two polls out over the weekend giving Labour leads of 3% and 4%. Beyond that , I suspect that the polls have tended to flatter the Tories as a result of Brexit effectively freezing out the Opposition parties from day to day commentary.DavidL said:
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not aged well....grabcocque said:Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...0 -
Or a rhino is an armoured unicorn.MarqueeMark said:
A unicorn is just a rhino with a good PR agency......Richard_Nabavi said:
Something like this, I think:TheWhiteRabbit said:
I mean those people who think that TM could have got a WA "without a backstop" - what does that look lik?williamglenn said:
No, if there's no backstop then there's a no deal crash out next March.TheWhiteRabbit said:What does it mean to not have a backstop?
The UK enters transition (presumably) and if we can't agree a long term partnership, it's no deal - is that the idea?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/Oftheunicorn.jpg0 -
The latest EMA including the two weekend polls has:bigjohnowls said:
On the most recent polls Jezza will be PMDavidL said:
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not aged well....grabcocque said:Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
Con 39.3%
Lab 38.5%
LD 8.4%
Combining this with the latest Scottish GE poll and using Electoral Calculus gives:
Con 302
Lab 270
LD 16
SNP 40
Grn 1
PC 3
UKIP 0
NI 18
Tories 24 short of an overall majority.
Minority Labour government with support of SNP and LDs (and PC and Green).
0 -
The Tory shitshow is the only circus in town right now.justin124 said:
I doubt that many people - other than political anoraks - have noticed them much at all.MarqueeMark said:
The Labour opposition is hardly frozen out - it just doesn't have a clue what to say on Brexit. Witness Magic Grandpa on SKY.....justin124 said:
There were two polls out over the weekend giving Labour leads of 3% and 4%. Beyond that , I suspect that the polls have tended to flatter the Tories as a result of Brexit effectively freezing out the Opposition parties from day to day commentary.DavidL said:
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not aged well....grabcocque said:Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46269757 2867 comments and still going strong.
Corbyn could propose a unicorn on a stick for his Brexit plan and noone would care or notice right now.0 -
0
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Thanks for the figures, interesting stuff.Barnesian said:
The latest EMA including the two weekend polls has:bigjohnowls said:
On the most recent polls Jezza will be PMDavidL said:
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not aged well....grabcocque said:Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
Con 39.3%
Lab 38.5%
LD 8.4%
Combining this with the latest Scottish GE poll and using Electoral Calculus gives:
Con 302
Lab 270
LD 16
SNP 40
Grn 1
PC 3
UKIP 0
NI 18
Tories 24 short of an overall majority.
Minority Labour government with support of SNP and LDs (and PC and Green).0 -
ERG have been as effective as toddlers bailing out a bath with forks.0
-
Does anyone know whether Stewart Jackson would be interested in standing again in Peterborough in the event of a by-election?0
-
The candidate has already been chosen:AndyJS said:Does anyone know whether Stewart Jackson would be interested in standing again in Peterborough in the event of a by-election?
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/peterborough-s-conservatives-choose-their-candidate-to-fight-the-next-election-1-8676251
0 -
First time I’ve ever been called a Dutch sprinkle!Pulpstar said:
Who is 'right' in Ireland ? It's a good question - one you can look back over the last thousand years at so far as British (And previously Norman, with a mild sprinkling of Dutch) involvement is concerned.Richard_Nabavi said:
The real problem is that it's not a question of who is right, it's a question of what the EU and Ireland will accept.TOPPING said:We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.0 -
The deal is in some respects a unicorn with a monumentally awful PR agency. It certainly has more cake than the EU said could ever be possible.MarqueeMark said:
A unicorn is just a rhino with a good PR agency......Richard_Nabavi said:
Something like this, I think:TheWhiteRabbit said:
I mean those people who think that TM could have got a WA "without a backstop" - what does that look lik?williamglenn said:
No, if there's no backstop then there's a no deal crash out next March.TheWhiteRabbit said:What does it mean to not have a backstop?
The UK enters transition (presumably) and if we can't agree a long term partnership, it's no deal - is that the idea?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/Oftheunicorn.jpg0 -
Minority Conservative government with support of LDs and DUP (who propped up the Tories last time and this, respectively).Barnesian said:
The latest EMA including the two weekend polls has:bigjohnowls said:
On the most recent polls Jezza will be PMDavidL said:
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.Scrapheap_as_was said:
not aged well....grabcocque said:Theresa, Honey
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
Con 39.3%
Lab 38.5%
LD 8.4%
Combining this with the latest Scottish GE poll and using Electoral Calculus gives:
Con 302
Lab 270
LD 16
SNP 40
Grn 1
PC 3
UKIP 0
NI 18
Tories 24 short of an overall majority.
Minority Labour government with support of SNP and LDs (and PC and Green).0 -
Current Peterborough MP seems to have added driving and phoning to her amazing skill set. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46279719#0
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Thanks. He looks a bit like Ben Gummer.Richard_Nabavi said:
The candidate has already been chosen:AndyJS said:Does anyone know whether Stewart Jackson would be interested in standing again in Peterborough in the event of a by-election?
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/peterborough-s-conservatives-choose-their-candidate-to-fight-the-next-election-1-86762510 -
The vast bulk of trade is by a few small groups.kjh said:
You don't need to check the ones you trust, it is the ones you don't trust that need checking.Charles said:
Trusted traveller doesTOPPING said:
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
If you rely on the magic technology who checks the rest who just wander across.0 -
Ms Onasanya told the Old Bailey she could not have been driving as she does not use her mobile phone when at the wheel.dr_spyn said:Current Peterborough MP seems to have added driving and phoning to her amazing skill set. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46279719#
That's a goody!0 -
-
Something's going on with the oil price at present, it's dropping like a stone.
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy0 -
Vast bulk of trade is small group of companies. Self reporting plus spot checks and then spot checks on everyone elsekjh said:
You don't need to check the ones you trust, it is the ones you don't trust that need checking.Charles said:
Trusted traveller doesTOPPING said:
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
If you rely on the magic technology who checks the rest who just wander across.0 -
-
Jeremy Corbyn missed a vote last night on an amendment placed in his own name to the Finance Bill. This was an amendment which potentially could have defeated the Government as eight DUP MPs voted with Labour, the SNP, Lib Dems, and Plaid Cymru. Senior Labour MPs are furious that party lost the vote when a tighter whipping operation could have defeated the Government.
Labour reportedly claim that he missed the vote because he was paired with a Tory MP, although the Tories insist he was not. So what’s the truth?
UPDATE: Labour have now clarified that Corbyn wasn’t paired after all, but he was given permission not to be there, because of “meetings”.
https://order-order.com/2018/11/20/why-did-corbyn-miss-a-vote-last-night/
Obviously too busy with the local manhole cover appreciation society meeting. Magic Grandpa doesn't half do some lying, or at least his office does.0 -
If I remember Robert's YouTube video about this then this is an inevitable consequence of tight oil producers in the US reacting to higher prices some months ago. The oil price is roughly where it was a year ago. While geopolitical factors - like sabre-rattling with Iran - might temporarily push the price up the fundamentals of the market will always drag the price back down to the marginal cost of production of tight oil in the US.AndyJS said:Something's going on with the oil price at present, it's dropping like a stone.
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy0 -
World trade worries?AndyJS said:Something's going on with the oil price at present, it's dropping like a stone.
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy0 -
What does DPJ Hodges say?Scott_P said:0 -
The vast amount of a fall off a cliff won't hurt you.Charles said:
The vast bulk of trade is by a few small groups.kjh said:
You don't need to check the ones you trust, it is the ones you don't trust that need checking.Charles said:
Trusted traveller doesTOPPING said:
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.Charles said:
We’ve discussed this before.TOPPING said:
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.Charles said:
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differentlyRichard_Nabavi said:
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.Charles said:If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
If you rely on the magic technology who checks the rest who just wander across.0
This discussion has been closed.