I think that that is an unlikely conclusion both because of the wording of Article 50 and the general law as regards notices.
Art 50 requires unanimity to extend the period. How is it consistent with that to allow the party giving notice to withdraw it unilaterally (and then possibly serve notice again once they are ready)?
In general law, eg tenancies, if a party gives notice of intention to quit or conclude the tenancy the other party is allowed to rely upon that and hold them to it. The EU have responded to our notice by negotiating (after a fashion) with us for 2 years. They have relied upon the notice which they insisted upon before they would even start discussions. They can hold us to it.
Of course the CJEU is more like a political forum than a real court but I can't imagine that they will want to leave the EU in such an uncertain position.
I think that must be correct. Otherwise, any member State could play cat and mouse with the rest.
The UK enters transition (presumably) and if we can't agree a long term partnership, it's no deal - is that the idea?
No, it means no transition, we crash out in utter chaos in a few weeks' time, unless the EU can be persuaded to change their minds or (more likely, but still not very likely) can be persuaded to agree to some kind of 'clarification' which keeps the DUP happy. Unfortunately I think the entrenched positions of various MPs now mean that even that wouldn't work.
I think that that is an unlikely conclusion both because of the wording of Article 50 and the general law as regards notices.
Art 50 requires unanimity to extend the period. How is it consistent with that to allow the party giving notice to withdraw it unilaterally (and then possibly serve notice again once they are ready)?
In general law, eg tenancies, if a party gives notice of intention to quit or conclude the tenancy the other party is allowed to rely upon that and hold them to it. The EU have responded to our notice by negotiating (after a fashion) with us for 2 years. They have relied upon the notice which they insisted upon before they would even start discussions. They can hold us to it.
Of course the CJEU is more like a political forum than a real court but I can't imagine that they will want to leave the EU in such an uncertain position.
The CJEU usually rules in a way which grants more power to the commission. Bearing that in mind, I think they will rule something like thus:
A50 cannot be unilaterally revoked
A50 can be revoked by bilateral agreement with the Commission, with the approval of the Council,
The agreement may include enjoining us not to invoke Article 50 again for some lengthy period.
I think the wording in the second part of Art 50 about unanimous consent by MSs is of great significance here. Of course the EU could agree to us withdrawing the notice but it would require unanimity.
In order for something like this deal to pass, somebody is going to negotiate away the godforsaken backstop.
It doesn't make any sense to ask the woman whose deep and enduring incompetence ensured it made it in the first place, to be the person responsible for negotiating it away again.
What would you have in place of the backstop?
An agreement that neither of us would implement a hard border, an agreement to work together on solutions to avoid it and an agreement to co-operate and punish to the full extent of the law any criminals who break the law and don't pay their taxes which is all customs duties are.
And you don't think Theresa May, Olly Robbins, David Davis, or Dominic Raab have suggested such a deal to the EU?
I think David Davis and Raab did suggest it. I think the EU tried their luck and May and Robbins fell apart like first two little pigs houses getting blown down by the big bad wolf. If May wasn't so desparate to get results after her disastrous election she could have said no to the backstop when they proposed it.
Why would she do that? She actually wants to get this through parliament.
Really, this idea that Theresa May screwed up the negotiations by not being tough enough is the most ludicrous nonsense. I actually agree that the backstop is daft, but the idea that the EU could be persuaded to drop it if only we'd shouted louder is off-the-wall raving bonkers.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
And if (/when) the answer is 'fine, come back when you're ready', what then ?
I think that that is an unlikely conclusion both because of the wording of Article 50 and the general law as regards notices.
Art 50 requires unanimity to extend the period. How is it consistent with that to allow the party giving notice to withdraw it unilaterally (and then possibly serve notice again once they are ready)?
In general law, eg tenancies, if a party gives notice of intention to quit or conclude the tenancy the other party is allowed to rely upon that and hold them to it. The EU have responded to our notice by negotiating (after a fashion) with us for 2 years. They have relied upon the notice which they insisted upon before they would even start discussions. They can hold us to it.
Of course the CJEU is more like a political forum than a real court but I can't imagine that they will want to leave the EU in such an uncertain position.
The CJEU usually rules in a way which grants more power to the commission. Bearing that in mind, I think they will rule something like thus:
A50 cannot be unilaterally revoked
A50 can be revoked by bilateral agreement with the Commission, with the approval of the Council,
The agreement may include enjoining us not to invoke Article 50 again for some lengthy period.
This is why we need to leave and if, at some point in the future we decide to remain we will see what terms we want to do so or be allowed to do.
We cannot cock around with our various treaty obligations and agreements because each time we do we weaken our negotiating position for next time round as people, simply, won't believe we would be acting in good faith and would insert, as you say, a host of penal clauses.
I can imagine the Council deciding to redraft or remove article 50 at some point. It was meant to symbolic, it wasn't actually meant to be used.
Paradoxically, scrapping A50 might make it easier to leave.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
In order for something like this deal to pass, somebody is going to negotiate away the godforsaken backstop.
It doesn't make any sense to ask the woman whose deep and enduring incompetence ensured it made it in the first place, to be the person responsible for negotiating it away again.
What would you have in place of the backstop?
An agreement that neither of us would implement a hard border, an agreement to work together on solutions to avoid it and an agreement to co-operate and punish to the full extent of the law any criminals who break the law and don't pay their taxes which is all customs duties are.
And you don't think Theresa May, Olly Robbins, David Davis, or Dominic Raab have suggested such a deal to the EU?
I think David Davis and Raab did suggest it. I think the EU tried their luck and May and Robbins fell apart like first two little pigs houses getting blown down by the big bad wolf. If May wasn't so desparate to get results after her disastrous election she could have said no to the backstop when they proposed it.
Why would she do that? She actually wants to get this through parliament.
Really, this idea that Theresa May screwed up the negotiations by not being tough enough is the most ludicrous nonsense. I actually agree that the backstop is daft, but the idea that the EU could be persuaded to drop it if only we'd shouted louder is off-the-wall raving bonkers.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
And if (/when) the answer is 'fine, come back when you're ready', what then ?
Too busy for hypotheticals. Where we are today this isn’t plausible
I think that that is an unlikely conclusion both because of the wording of Article 50 and the general law as regards notices.
Art 50 requires unanimity to extend the period. How is it consistent with that to allow the party giving notice to withdraw it unilaterally (and then possibly serve notice again once they are ready)?
In general law, eg tenancies, if a party gives notice of intention to quit or conclude the tenancy the other party is allowed to rely upon that and hold them to it. The EU have responded to our notice by negotiating (after a fashion) with us for 2 years. They have relied upon the notice which they insisted upon before they would even start discussions. They can hold us to it.
Of course the CJEU is more like a political forum than a real court but I can't imagine that they will want to leave the EU in such an uncertain position.
The CJEU usually rules in a way which grants more power to the commission. Bearing that in mind, I think they will rule something like thus:
A50 cannot be unilaterally revoked
A50 can be revoked by bilateral agreement with the Commission, with the approval of the Council,
The agreement may include enjoining us not to invoke Article 50 again for some lengthy period.
Would that be a decision taken by QMV? It's not one "where the Treaties provide otherwise", after all.
The Tories need to do a deal with May where they a) Get her deal over the line (2nd ref or No Deal Brexit are both complete disasters for them) in exchange for her going once the deal is over the line.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.
It amazing how tw@tter can spread fake news. Some rando with hardly any followers tweets this 20hrs ago and of course people jump all over it and a day later it makes its way onto PB.
Hard to disagree with that. Interesting stats about the amount of progress the Dems made at State level too. It may not have been a blue wave but the republicans got seriously wet.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
I don't really know what motivates UKIP voters any more. Since the party wandered off into the toxic shallows of gammon-hued islamoscepticism it's difficult to reason about how these people will vote. If they vote.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Gibraltar isn’t part of the UK at all.
It's a British Overseas Territory. Not part of the UK. But it's treated as part of the South West for census purposes.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Gibraltar isn’t part of the UK at all.
It's a British Overseas Territory. Not part of the UK. But it's treated as part of the South West for census purposes.
I think you mean the EU Parliament elections - it's not in the UK Census.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Gibraltar isn’t part of the UK at all.
It's a British Overseas Territory. Not part of the UK. But it's treated as part of the South West for census purposes.
I think you mean the EU Parliament elections - it's not in the UK Census.
Yeah, that makes sense. The population of the Gibraltar was included in the population of the south west to work out how many MEPs it got.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
In a time when Labour didn't have issues with Jews,
Clement Attlee, the Labour prime minister whose government founded the welfare state, looked after a child refugee who escaped from the Nazis in the months leading up to the second world war, it can be revealed.
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
The real problem is that it's not a question of who is right, it's a question of what the EU and Ireland will accept.
Who is 'right' in Ireland ? It's a good question - one you can look back over the last thousand years at so far as British (And previously Norman, with a mild sprinkling of Dutch) involvement is concerned.
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
not aged well....
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
Gibraltar isn’t part of the UK at all.
The Spanish complaint today is the wording in the WDA makes it look like it is
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
not aged well....
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
not aged well....
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.
There were two polls out over the weekend giving Labour leads of 3% and 4%. Beyond that , I suspect that the polls have tended to flatter the Tories as a result of Brexit effectively freezing out the Opposition parties from day to day commentary.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
Trusted traveller does
You don't need to check the ones you trust, it is the ones you don't trust that need checking.
If you rely on the magic technology who checks the rest who just wander across.
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
not aged well....
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.
There were two polls out over the weekend giving Labour leads of 3% and 4%. Beyond that , I suspect that the polls have tended to flatter the Tories as a result of Brexit effectively freezing out the Opposition parties from day to day commentary.
The Labour opposition is hardly frozen out - it just doesn't have a clue what to say on Brexit. Witness Magic Grandpa on SKY.....
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
not aged well....
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.
There were two polls out over the weekend giving Labour leads of 3% and 4%. Beyond that , I suspect that the polls have tended to flatter the Tories as a result of Brexit effectively freezing out the Opposition parties from day to day commentary.
The Labour opposition is hardly frozen out - it just doesn't have a clue what to say on Brexit. Witness Magic Grandpa on SKY.....
I doubt that many people - other than political anoraks - have noticed them much at all.
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
not aged well....
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.
On the most recent polls Jezza will be PM
The latest EMA including the two weekend polls has:
Con 39.3% Lab 38.5% LD 8.4%
Combining this with the latest Scottish GE poll and using Electoral Calculus gives:
Con 302 Lab 270 LD 16 SNP 40 Grn 1 PC 3 UKIP 0 NI 18
Tories 24 short of an overall majority.
Minority Labour government with support of SNP and LDs (and PC and Green).
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
not aged well....
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.
There were two polls out over the weekend giving Labour leads of 3% and 4%. Beyond that , I suspect that the polls have tended to flatter the Tories as a result of Brexit effectively freezing out the Opposition parties from day to day commentary.
The Labour opposition is hardly frozen out - it just doesn't have a clue what to say on Brexit. Witness Magic Grandpa on SKY.....
I doubt that many people - other than political anoraks - have noticed them much at all.
The Tory shitshow is the only circus in town right now.
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
not aged well....
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.
On the most recent polls Jezza will be PM
The latest EMA including the two weekend polls has:
Con 39.3% Lab 38.5% LD 8.4%
Combining this with the latest Scottish GE poll and using Electoral Calculus gives:
Con 302 Lab 270 LD 16 SNP 40 Grn 1 PC 3 UKIP 0 NI 18
Tories 24 short of an overall majority.
Minority Labour government with support of SNP and LDs (and PC and Green).
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
The real problem is that it's not a question of who is right, it's a question of what the EU and Ireland will accept.
Who is 'right' in Ireland ? It's a good question - one you can look back over the last thousand years at so far as British (And previously Norman, with a mild sprinkling of Dutch) involvement is concerned.
First time I’ve ever been called a Dutch sprinkle!
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
not aged well....
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
It is genuinely bewildering that a government that is falling apart, on its 3rd Brexit Secretary in as many months and seems to have lost its coalition partner/majority is still marginally leading in the polls. If Labour were not on a different planet they would be giving this some serious thought.
On the most recent polls Jezza will be PM
The latest EMA including the two weekend polls has:
Con 39.3% Lab 38.5% LD 8.4%
Combining this with the latest Scottish GE poll and using Electoral Calculus gives:
Con 302 Lab 270 LD 16 SNP 40 Grn 1 PC 3 UKIP 0 NI 18
Tories 24 short of an overall majority.
Minority Labour government with support of SNP and LDs (and PC and Green).
Minority Conservative government with support of LDs and DUP (who propped up the Tories last time and this, respectively).
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
Trusted traveller does
You don't need to check the ones you trust, it is the ones you don't trust that need checking.
If you rely on the magic technology who checks the rest who just wander across.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
Trusted traveller does
You don't need to check the ones you trust, it is the ones you don't trust that need checking.
If you rely on the magic technology who checks the rest who just wander across.
Vast bulk of trade is small group of companies. Self reporting plus spot checks and then spot checks on everyone else
Jeremy Corbyn missed a vote last night on an amendment placed in his own name to the Finance Bill. This was an amendment which potentially could have defeated the Government as eight DUP MPs voted with Labour, the SNP, Lib Dems, and Plaid Cymru. Senior Labour MPs are furious that party lost the vote when a tighter whipping operation could have defeated the Government.
Labour reportedly claim that he missed the vote because he was paired with a Tory MP, although the Tories insist he was not. So what’s the truth?
UPDATE: Labour have now clarified that Corbyn wasn’t paired after all, but he was given permission not to be there, because of “meetings”.
If I remember Robert's YouTube video about this then this is an inevitable consequence of tight oil producers in the US reacting to higher prices some months ago. The oil price is roughly where it was a year ago. While geopolitical factors - like sabre-rattling with Iran - might temporarily push the price up the fundamentals of the market will always drag the price back down to the marginal cost of production of tight oil in the US.
If we’d threatened to walk away they may have. If you must do a deal you’ve little leverage
Indeed. That's why they've got the leverage. We can't credibly threaten to walk away.
Yes. I would have played the whole thing differently
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
They won't try to enforce it, Charles, they don't want it. A dispute may be brought, if we are operating under WTO terms, by a fellow WTO member under MFN which could either force us to put up a border or force us to drop any tariffs for goods from any other country that aren't applied to RoI goods.
We’ve discussed this before.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
We have discussed this before and yet people refuse to face reality.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
Trusted traveller does
You don't need to check the ones you trust, it is the ones you don't trust that need checking.
If you rely on the magic technology who checks the rest who just wander across.
The vast bulk of trade is by a few small groups.
The vast amount of a fall off a cliff won't hurt you.
Comments
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/11/20/beto-orourke-2020-president-campaign-analysis-222639
Ball is in Ireland's court now. Accept the backstopless deal or cause no deal chaos, Leo. Your call. Choose wisely.
But we’ve ended up in an ok place
And for the backstop, if they try to enforce, I’d repudiate it.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/70/Oftheunicorn.jpg
Labour: 44%
Conservative: 37%
Liberal Democrats: 9%
SNP: 3%
UKIP: 3%
Greens: 2%
Broken, sleazy, divided, back stabbing Tories on the slide...
YOU'VE MADE JEREMY CORBYN LOOK LIKE A PLAUSIBLE PRIME MINISTER
YOU'RE GIVING A PALEO-LENINIST A MAJORITY YOU HONKING GREAT BERK
Look what you've done. I hope you're happy.
It's not one "where the Treaties provide otherwise", after all.
Although I am not sure he will stand again
Survation say this poll is from 12th March 2018. Their most recent poll has Labour ahead 40/39.
a) Get her deal over the line (2nd ref or No Deal Brexit are both complete disasters for them) in exchange for her going once the deal is over the line.
Tariffs will be applied, just the monitoring will be done in a different way. But it will be done in the same way as all U.K. land borders*
(* except Gibraltar, but don’t worry Spain that’s not really part of the UK)
/Joke
I wouldn't be surprised if a Survation poll did put Labour 7% ahead right now, although the UKIP score would be much higher than 3%.
If only the gods hadn't abandoned us.
In any case, for most people, it is probably more of an annoyance than Brexit.
I remember Tim, formerly of this parish, hyping a Labour lead poll in the run up to the 2010 election. Lots of 'if these rumours are true' hyperbole.
Probably a banning offence if you think about it.
Also, Sunil, he'll answer questions about trains.
Don't come for me. I AM ARMED.
Your solution would be the mystical techno-phyto-mythological doesn't yet exist plan I imagine.
Clement Attlee, the Labour prime minister whose government founded the welfare state, looked after a child refugee who escaped from the Nazis in the months leading up to the second world war, it can be revealed.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/20/clement-attlee-child-refugee-paul-willer-fled-nazis-1939
https://twitter.com/survation/status/1064822584238313472?s=21
Not a gamble May can accept.
tbf, a poll like that is entirely plausible to happen soon...
What's the timetable for the deal reaching the Commons?
F1: just the winner's market up. Hopefully the rest will be up soon.
(But it was a joke anyway)
If you rely on the magic technology who checks the rest who just wander across.
Con 39.3%
Lab 38.5%
LD 8.4%
Combining this with the latest Scottish GE poll and using Electoral Calculus gives:
Con 302
Lab 270
LD 16
SNP 40
Grn 1
PC 3
UKIP 0
NI 18
Tories 24 short of an overall majority.
Minority Labour government with support of SNP and LDs (and PC and Green).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46269757 2867 comments and still going strong.
Corbyn could propose a unicorn on a stick for his Brexit plan and noone would care or notice right now.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/748599094252273664
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/peterborough-s-conservatives-choose-their-candidate-to-fight-the-next-election-1-8676251
That's a goody!
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Labour reportedly claim that he missed the vote because he was paired with a Tory MP, although the Tories insist he was not. So what’s the truth?
UPDATE: Labour have now clarified that Corbyn wasn’t paired after all, but he was given permission not to be there, because of “meetings”.
https://order-order.com/2018/11/20/why-did-corbyn-miss-a-vote-last-night/
Obviously too busy with the local manhole cover appreciation society meeting. Magic Grandpa doesn't half do some lying, or at least his office does.