politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mr. Johnson becomes favourite once again to succeed Mrs. May
Options
Comments
-
Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/10646171507516211260 -
Only 222 Labour votes. Might have been able to defeat the government (I don't think the Tories are accepting pairs)TheScreamingEagles said:
Apparently the DUP voted against whereas they will abstain, so gov't majority slightly stronger elsewhere0 -
Sure, I'm struggling to think of how that might disadvantage Northern Ireland in practice though !TheWhiteRabbit said:
Depending on your definition of "Border".Pulpstar said:No Irish sea border:
NOTING that nothing in this Protocol prevents the United Kingdom from ensuring unfettered
market access for goods moving from Northern Ireland to the rest of the United Kingdom's internal market
Northern Irish producers will be subject to SM rules that Northern English producers will not.0 -
Here's a question. Could Jezza get his sought-after GE sooner by passing May's Deal?
The DUP could well decide to withdraw their support at which point a VoNC would probably be lost.0 -
-
Even with your 42% (most of whom I expect wanted immigration controls too) that 42% is not 52% and that 42% for Leave would have meant Remain won.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is a rather illogical argument.HYUFD said:
Yes and it was the consequences of their vote which got Leave to 52%SouthamObserver said:
So what? We all have to live with the consequences of Brexit, not just working class Leave voters.HYUFD said:
Without that set of Leave voters Remain would have wonSouthamObserver said:
The Brexit deal should always have been about what would get most support in the country, not what one set of Leave voters wanted.HYUFD said:
Richard Tyndall wants an open borders single market Brexit, not sure many working class Leavers would have been happy with thatSouthamObserver said:To be fair, if Richard Tyndall had been doing the negotiating we would not be in the mess we are in now. Unlike David Davis, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Nadine Dorries and the rest of the Buccaneers he actually understands the issues because he's pent some time trying to understand them. The kind of Brexit he proposed would have united the country, done very little damage and allowed everyone to move on. Unfortunately, instead of tacking tot he centre when she took over May turned right. Article 50 was invoked, the red lines were drawn and thus the rest was always going to happen.
One could just as easily say it was the 42% of Leave voters who were happy with EEA status who pushed the Leave vote up to 52%. Without either side you would not have had Brexit. So that accepted you then have to proceed on what is likely to be the most acceptable deal to the widest number of people. Which clearly was not a hard Brexit nor necessarily one which ended FoM. Instead May chose to put the whole thing at risk by supporting a position which only had the support of perhaps 23% of the electorate and which bound us to decisions that would make Brexit immeasurably harder.
Leave won on a prospectus of cutting immigration, something most voters actually support, certainly for lower skilled migration, that has to be respected as a result of the Leave vote.
0 -
I think so - defeat of the bill may well mean the show carries on between the Tories and the DUP.Benpointer said:Here's a question. Could Jezza get his sought-after GE sooner by passing May's Deal?
The DUP could well decide to withdraw their support at which point a VoNC would probably be lost.0 -
It is a founding principle of the single market that a producer that must comply with two sets of standards is at a disadvantage (Casis de Dijon and all that). However it is not clear that UK standards will diverge and if at all, certainly not by much. We are not going back to the policies of the pre-1972 era with Victorian restrictions on the milk content of butter or the size servings of bread.Pulpstar said:
Sure, I'm struggling to think of how that might disadvantage Northern Ireland in practice though !TheWhiteRabbit said:
Depending on your definition of "Border".Pulpstar said:No Irish sea border:
NOTING that nothing in this Protocol prevents the United Kingdom from ensuring unfettered
market access for goods moving from Northern Ireland to the rest of the United Kingdom's internal market
Northern Irish producers will be subject to SM rules that Northern English producers will not.0 -
Not really, especially in the case of the EEAers.kyf_100 said:
The thing that unites those two visions, however, is the desire to choose one's own masters and make our own laws. Neither vision is possible within the EU. Out of it, we're free to make the case for the UK we'd like to live in, and have the elected government of the day carry that out.JosiasJessop said:
I was pointing out the lie before the referendum, so it was hardly in response to leave's win.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because there was no central lie that won Brexit. It is just an excuse made up by Remainers who are desperate to find someway to overturn a democratic decision.JosiasJessop said:
Why is it rubbish?Richard_Tyndall said:
No they didn't. Much as you might wish it to be true it is still rubbish no matter how many times you might repeat it.JosiasJessop said:
Leave won the first referendum on a central lie - one that was pointed out at the time, and ignored. As such, it is essentially undeliverable - which is why we're in this mess now.Richard_Tyndall said:
When we have enacted the first referendum feel free to press for a rejoin. Until then you have no credibility.JosiasJessop said:
On the other hand, remain is an obvious option in a referendum, and one that is wanted by a significant proportion of people (indeed, 48-odd% voted for it just two years ago). Not having it as an option could be seen as obviously undemocratic.Richard_Tyndall said:Nope. Remain should not get another shot. Well, unless you think we should revisit the same question again every 2 years for ever more. Of course the EU and the Remainiacs only want to repeat the question until they win as you showed earlier. You really must hate this country that you would plunge it into such chaos.
But as I've said before, I have doubts if the EU would really want us to remain given all the sh*t and trouble the Europhobes have caused them.
Also, I hate the idea of a three-way referendum, and cannot see it producing a result that would be conclusive.
And remain or leaver, that's what we need from another referendum: a definite conclusion, one way or the other.
Continuing with something so fatally flawed could be seen as silly, if not insane given the damage it could do.
In fact, the lie is a major part of the reason I reluctantly voted for remain: it was clear that the two different visions of leave could not be reconciled, especially wrt major factors such as immigration.0 -
If English regulations are more competitive than SM ones then NI will be at a disadvantage.Pulpstar said:
Sure, I'm struggling to think of how that might disadvantage Northern Ireland in practice though !TheWhiteRabbit said:
Depending on your definition of "Border".Pulpstar said:No Irish sea border:
NOTING that nothing in this Protocol prevents the United Kingdom from ensuring unfettered
market access for goods moving from Northern Ireland to the rest of the United Kingdom's internal market
Northern Irish producers will be subject to SM rules that Northern English producers will not.0 -
Lol @ Labour not being able to defeat the Gov't there - what a shower.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It is not enough for the DUP to abstain in a VONC. They would need to vote with Labour for the opposition to win the vote. That is assuming there are no suicidal Tories out there.Benpointer said:Here's a question. Could Jezza get his sought-after GE sooner by passing May's Deal?
The DUP could well decide to withdraw their support at which point a VoNC would probably be lost.0 -
It's a warning shot - I wonder if they wanted to bring the gov't down or calculated that it would just survive.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.0 -
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.0 -
Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
Nope. Leave won on a wide ranging prospectus of which cutting immigration was, overall, a minority position. Your position is simply untenable because the whole of Brexit is being put at risk because of an issue supported by only 23% of those who voted.HYUFD said:
Even with your 42% (most of whom I expect wanted immigration controls too) that 42% is not 52% and that 42% for Leave would have meant Remain won.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is a rather illogical argument.HYUFD said:
Yes and it was the consequences of their vote which got Leave to 52%SouthamObserver said:
So what? We all have to live with the consequences of Brexit, not just working class Leave voters.HYUFD said:
Without that set of Leave voters Remain would have wonSouthamObserver said:
The Brexit deal should always have been about what would get most support in the country, not what one set of Leave voters wanted.HYUFD said:
Richard Tyndall wants an open borders single market Brexit, not sure many working class Leavers would have been happy with thatSouthamObserver said:To be fair, if Richard Tyndall had been doing the negotiating we would not be in the mess we are in now. Unlike David Davis, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Nadine Dorries and the rest of the Buccaneers he actually understands the issues because he's pent some time trying to understand them. The kind of Brexit he proposed would have united the country, done very little damage and allowed everyone to move on. Unfortunately, instead of tacking tot he centre when she took over May turned right. Article 50 was invoked, the red lines were drawn and thus the rest was always going to happen.
One could just as easily say it was the 42% of Leave voters who were happy with EEA status who pushed the Leave vote up to 52%. Without either side you would not have had Brexit. So that accepted you then have to proceed on what is likely to be the most acceptable deal to the widest number of people. Which clearly was not a hard Brexit nor necessarily one which ended FoM. Instead May chose to put the whole thing at risk by supporting a position which only had the support of perhaps 23% of the electorate and which bound us to decisions that would make Brexit immeasurably harder.
Leave won on a prospectus of cutting immigration, something most voters actually support, certainly for lower skilled migration, that has to be respected as a result of the Leave vote.0 -
You lot really.TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.
The Tories can stare down the DUP. The very fact they thought a warning was necessary demonstrates their weakness.0 -
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
As a hackneyed old slur that is, I guess, at least one step above ZaNu LIEbore. But only a very small step.tlg86 said:The Lib Dems are neither liberal nor democratic.
0 -
Yup. Cutting immigration was a pivotal part of Leave getting over 50%.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Leave won on a wide ranging prospectus of which cutting immigration was, overall, a minority position. Your position is simply untenable because the whole of Brexit is being put at risk because of an issue supported by only 23% of those who voted.HYUFD said:
Even with your 42% (most of whom I expect wanted immigration controls too) that 42% is not 52% and that 42% for Leave would have meant Remain won.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is a rather illogical argument.HYUFD said:
Yes and it was the consequences of their vote which got Leave to 52%SouthamObserver said:
So what? We all have to live with the consequences of Brexit, not just working class Leave voters.HYUFD said:
Without that set of Leave voters Remain would have wonSouthamObserver said:
The Brexit deal should always have been about what would get most support in the country, not what one set of Leave voters wanted.HYUFD said:
Richard Tyndall wants an open borders single market Brexit, not sure many working class Leavers would have been happy with thatSouthamObserver said:To be fair, if Richard Tyndall had been doing the negotiating we would not be in the mess we are in now. Unlike David Davis, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Nadine Dorries and the rest of the Buccaneers he actually understands the issues because he's pent some time trying to understand them. The kind of Brexit he proposed would have united the country, done very little damage and allowed everyone to move on. Unfortunately, instead of tacking tot he centre when she took over May turned right. Article 50 was invoked, the red lines were drawn and thus the rest was always going to happen.
One could just as easily say it was the er.
Leave won on a prospectus of cutting immigration, something most voters actually support, certainly for lower skilled migration, that has to be respected as a result of the Leave vote.
My position is absolutely correct and the point is not to respect your fewer widget making regulations obsessed Brexit alone but all the reasons Leave won and that includes gaining greater control over immigration as May's Deal does
0 -
Do the DUP still get all that money ?0
-
Utter utter lying mendacious factually inaccurate bollocks which lacks the merest iota of veracity.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Leave won on a wide ranging prospectus of which cutting immigration was, overall, a minority position. Your position is simply untenable because the whole of Brexit is being put at risk because of an issue supported by only 23% of those who voted.HYUFD said:
Even with your 42% (most of whom I expect wanted immigration controls too) that 42% is not 52% and that 42% for Leave would have meant Remain won.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is a rather illogical argument.HYUFD said:
Yes and it was the consequences of their vote which got Leave to 52%SouthamObserver said:
So what? We all have to live with the consequences of Brexit, not just working class Leave voters.HYUFD said:
Without that set of Leave voters Remain would have wonSouthamObserver said:
The Brexit deal should always have been about what would get most support in the country, not what one set of Leave voters wanted.HYUFD said:
Richard Tyndall wants an open borders single market Brexit, not sure many working class Leavers would have been happy with thatSouthamObserver said:To be fair, if Richard Tyndall had been doing the negotiating we would not be in the mess we are in now. Unlike David Davis, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Nadine Dorries and the rest of the Buccaneers he actually understands the issues because he's pent some time trying to understand them. The kind of Brexit he proposed would have united the country, done very little damage and allowed everyone to move on. Unfortunately, instead of tacking tot he centre when she took over May turned right. Article 50 was invoked, the red lines were drawn and thus the rest was always going to happen.
So that accepted you then have to proceed on what is likely to be the most acceptable deal to the widest number of people. Which clearly was not a hard Brexit nor necessarily one which ended FoM. Instead May chose to put the whole thing at risk by supporting a position which only had the support of perhaps 23% of the electorate and which bound us to decisions that would make Brexit immeasurably harder.
Leave won on a prospectus of cutting immigration, something most voters actually support, certainly for lower skilled migration, that has to be respected as a result of the Leave vote.
https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/wordcloud_leave-1024x575.png0 -
Tony BLIAR is the best one.El_Capitano said:
As a hackneyed old slur that is, I guess, at least one step above ZaNu LIEbore. But only a very small step.tlg86 said:The Lib Dems are neither liberal nor democratic.
0 -
I think it is held pending the reinstatement of the NI assemblyPulpstar said:Do the DUP still get all that money ?
0 -
-
As any Leave campaigner will tell you, it wasn't about immigration; it was about the NHS.Bromptonaut said:Utter utter lying mendacious factually inaccurate bollocks which lacks the merest iota of veracity.
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/7337137253839667200 -
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
I was always quite partial to David Chameleon.Pulpstar said:
Tony BLIAR is the best one.El_Capitano said:
As a hackneyed old slur that is, I guess, at least one step above ZaNu LIEbore. But only a very small step.tlg86 said:The Lib Dems are neither liberal nor democratic.
0 -
That's a really simple question to answer - Some of the immigrants will be NHS workers. I know, I know !williamglenn said:
As any Leave campaigner will tell you, it wasn't about immigration; it was about the NHS.Bromptonaut said:Utter utter lying mendacious factually inaccurate bollocks which lacks the merest iota of veracity.
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/7337137253839667200 -
I will take the real polling over your word clouds any day. 45%. That is the % of Leave voters who preferred controlling immigration to free trade. Which is a whole 23% of the overall electorate. Factually accurate. I will leave the bollocks bit to you.Bromptonaut said:
Utter utter lying mendacious factually inaccurate bollocks which lacks the merest iota of veracity.
https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/wordcloud_leave-1024x575.png0 -
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
And yet the polls prove you wrong. Its a bitch isn't it.HYUFD said:
Yup. Cutting immigration was a pivotal part of Leave getting over 50%.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Leave won on a wide ranging prospectus of which cutting immigration was, overall, a minority position. Your position is simply untenable because the whole of Brexit is being put at risk because of an issue supported by only 23% of those who voted.HYUFD said:
Even with your 42% (most of whom I expect wanted immigration controls too) that 42% is not 52% and that 42% for Leave would have meant Remain won.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is a rather illogical argument.HYUFD said:
Yes and it was the consequences of their vote which got Leave to 52%SouthamObserver said:
So what? We all have to live with the consequences of Brexit, not just working class Leave voters.HYUFD said:
Without that set of Leave voters Remain would have wonSouthamObserver said:
The Brexit deal should always have been about what would get most support in the country, not what one set of Leave voters wanted.HYUFD said:
Richard Tyndall wants an open borders single market Brexit, not sure many working class Leavers would have been happy with thatSouthamObserver said:To be fair, if Richard Tyndall had been doing the negotiating we would not be in the mess we are in now. Unlike David Davis, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Nadine Dorries and the rest of the Buccaneers he actually understands the issues because he's pent some time trying to understand them. The kind of Brexit he proposed would have united the country, done very little damage and allowed everyone to move on. Unfortunately, instead of tacking tot he centre when she took over May turned right. Article 50 was invoked, the red lines were drawn and thus the rest was always going to happen.
One could just as easily say it was the er.
Leave won on a prospectus of cutting immigration, something most voters actually support, certainly for lower skilled migration, that has to be respected as a result of the Leave vote.
My position is absolutely correct and the point is not to respect your fewer widget making regulations obsessed Brexit alone but all the reasons Leave won and that includes gaining greater control over immigration as May's Deal does0 -
Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?Alistair said:
Actually made me angry this one.Scott_P said:0 -
The Tory ones seem to be very good, who are the Labour whips ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
Quite so. Hard for him to switch position though, since his pretext for a GE is so that he can renegotiate the deal because it so bad, plus a Labour government will just be better anyway. Harder to pitch 'we'll get a Labour government, but also this deal I said was terrible'.Benpointer said:Here's a question. Could Jezza get his sought-after GE sooner by passing May's Deal?
The DUP could well decide to withdraw their support at which point a VoNC would probably be lost.
Not sure how it can be described as a warning shot. Abstention, sure. But voting against means they have gone against the agreement surely? Now, some will say it is with justification given May's proposed deal, but it would seem, the DUP have technically broken it first, since it is not as though parliament has approved May's deal, nor is it likely to.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It's a warning shot - I wonder if they wanted to bring the gov't down or calculated that it would just survive.TheScreamingEagles said:
So I assume they are better the Tories will be too distracted and divided to do anything about it, or take back the extra money since they would probably go down like a bucket of cold sick.0 -
Labour ones are uselessBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hearBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
You mean ask for an extension to Article 50?Philip_Thompson said:
Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?Alistair said:
Actually made me angry this one.Scott_P said:0 -
No idea - but not in the same league as the conservative onesPulpstar said:
The Tory ones seem to be very good, who are the Labour whips ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
You do realise that's a completely fictitious word cloud you've linked to?Bromptonaut said:
Utter utter lying mendacious factually inaccurate bollocks which lacks the merest iota of veracity.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Leave won on a wide ranging prospectus of which cutting immigration was, overall, a minority position. Your position is simply untenable because the whole of Brexit is being put at risk because of an issue supported by only 23% of those who voted.HYUFD said:
Even with your 42% (most of whom I expect wanted immigration controls too) that 42% is not 52% and that 42% for Leave would have meant Remain won.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is a rather illogical argument.HYUFD said:
Yes and it was the consequences of their vote which got Leave to 52%SouthamObserver said:
So what? We all have to live with the consequences of Brexit, not just working class Leave voters.HYUFD said:
Without that set of Leave voters Remain would have wonSouthamObserver said:
The Brexit deal should always have been about what would get most support in the country, not what one set of Leave voters wanted.HYUFD said:
Richard Tyndall wants an open borders single market Brexit, not sure many working class Leavers would have been happy with thatSouthamObserver said:
So that accepted you then have to proceed on what is likely to be the most acceptable deal to the widest number of people. Which clearly was not a hard Brexit nor necessarily one which ended FoM. Instead May chose to put the whole thing at risk by supporting a position which only had the support of perhaps 23% of the electorate and which bound us to decisions that would make Brexit immeasurably harder.
Leave won on a prospectus of cutting immigration, something most voters actually support, certainly for lower skilled migration, that has to be respected as a result of the Leave vote.
https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/wordcloud_leave-1024x575.png
(Hint - zoom in and take a look at the words round the edge - sovereignty for example appears quite a few times. Those edge words have just been added for effect.)
0 -
If you start from the point of view that the EU is negotiating in bad faith, is explicitly malevolent towards us, and intent on subjugating and diminishing us, then surely there could never have been a Deal agreed with them that was ever remotely acceptable or in any way not malevolent and harmful?GIN1138 said:FPT:
But why would the EU have any interest at all in doing a "sensible deal" after the WA?Deafbloke said:
The sensible compromise is that the deal is passed, but May pays for it with her head. A Brexiteer then takes the helm, to turn the 14 pages of FTA flim-flam into a sensible deal. May can not trusted to deliver.Casino_Royale said:
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.MarqueeMark said:
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
They'll have us exactly where they've always wanted is - A neutered, diminished and impotent nation - You seriously think they'll take their foot off our throat when they have us where they want us?
They'll double down and go for the jugular even more.
In which case, May could not be at fault, and neither could the Remain team. No-one could have obtained an acceptable Deal if the other party had no intent in providing an acceptable Deal.
And a crash-out No Deal Brexit was inevitable from the day the referendum result came in, regardless of whatever Brexiteers promised before or since.0 -
-
Although I'm still very fond of the oldPulpstar said:
Tony BLIAR is the best one.El_Capitano said:
As a hackneyed old slur that is, I guess, at least one step above ZaNu LIEbore. But only a very small step.tlg86 said:The Lib Dems are neither liberal nor democratic.
0 -
That'd be the same Rasmussen that showed the Republicans with a 1% lead in the House generic poll just before the midterms would it?Andrew said:0 -
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.0 -
Looks like we're into a true minority Gov't now (At least once the Labour whips get their act together !)
I think the DUP will still vote with the Tories on confidence matters though, just not much else. There aren't many true confidence votes under FTPA.0 -
Didn't I read a few days ago he was confident of getting the Deal through? Evidence of more ERG piss and wind?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hearBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.0 -
So it should have been prepared for.Andy_Cooke said:
If you start from the point of view that the EU is negotiating in bad faith, is explicitly malevolent towards us, and intent on subjugating and diminishing us, then surely there could never have been a Deal agreed with them that was ever remotely acceptable or in any way not malevolent and harmful?GIN1138 said:FPT:
But why would the EU have any interest at all in doing a "sensible deal" after the WA?Deafbloke said:
The sensible compromise is that the deal is passed, but May pays for it with her head. A Brexiteer then takes the helm, to turn the 14 pages of FTA flim-flam into a sensible deal. May can not trusted to deliver.Casino_Royale said:
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.MarqueeMark said:
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
They'll have us exactly where they've always wanted is - A neutered, diminished and impotent nation - You seriously think they'll take their foot off our throat when they have us where they want us?
They'll double down and go for the jugular even more.
In which case, May could not be at fault, and neither could the Remain team. No-one could have obtained an acceptable Deal if the other party had no intent in providing an acceptable Deal.
And a crash-out No Deal Brexit was inevitable from the day the referendum result came in, regardless of whatever Brexiteers promised before or since.
If you want peace prepare for war. The only way to get a good deal is to be serious when you say that no deal is better than a bad one.0 -
No they're not being subjugated to Single Market rules?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.
Or no they will have MEPs?0 -
It feels pretty much like they are, at least to an extent. TSE perhaps you could expand.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.0 -
You do not seem to realise A50 requires us to leave at the end of march 19 with either wda or no deal and no transistionPhilip_Thompson said:
Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?Alistair said:
Actually made me angry this one.Scott_P said:
To get an extention to A50 the EU have said they would agree for a second referendum or GE but not on the deal
The lack of detail orb knowledge by ERG has been evident from day one0 -
Given many objections seem to be around following EU rules during the years of transition how exactly does also agreeing to that resolve those objections? If people are arguing against the rules of the withdrawal agreement, then we cannot very well discuss what the rules of the withdrawal agreement will be during the withdrawal, surely?Philip_Thompson said:
Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?Alistair said:
Actually made me angry this one.Scott_P said:0 -
Laura K:
"But they don't consider tonight's abstentions the end of the confidence and supply agreement - but relationship btw DUP and No 10 seems pretty bust - and with it, 10 votes not coming back for Brexit bill?"
I guess that keeps open the possibility DUP might vote with Govt in Confidence Vote - ie they increase the pressure but don't necessarily bring Govt down.0 -
Most of the £39b is payable over several decades. We’re not giving it to them in one lump. And I think they might want something a bit more legally binding than “we’ll follow your rules for a couple of years!”Philip_Thompson said:
Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?Alistair said:
Actually made me angry this one.Scott_P said:
0 -
Electoral Vote today had an interesting analysis of why Rasmussen tends to favour the GOP: https://electoral-vote.com/#item-9 (third item in the "Monday Q&A")Andrew said:
Indeed! Sticking to their guns it seems - I guess it would be rather silly if they suddenly went from +1 to -10 like everyone else.rpjs said:
That'd be the same Rasmussen that showed the Republicans with a 1% lead in the House generic poll just before the midterms would it?0 -
I think when our PB colleagues are relying on randomly retweeted word clouds (word clouds!) to make their point, we have truly entered a whole new word of fake news on here.Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet the polls prove you wrong. Its a bitch isn't it.HYUFD said:
Yup. Cutting immigration was a pivotal part of Leave getting over 50%.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Leave won on a wide ranging prospectus of which cutting immigration was, overall, a minority position. Your position is simply untenable because the whole of Brexit is being put at risk because of an issue supported by only 23% of those who voted.HYUFD said:
Even with your 42% (most of whom I expect wanted immigration controls too) that 42% is not 52% and that 42% for Leave would have meant Remain won.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is a rather illogical argument.HYUFD said:
Yes and it was the consequences of their vote which got Leave to 52%SouthamObserver said:
So what? We all have to live with the consequences of Brexit, not just working class Leave voters.HYUFD said:
Without that set of Leave voters Remain would have wonSouthamObserver said:
The Brexit deal should always have been about what would get most support in the country, not what one set of Leave voters wanted.HYUFD said:
Richard Tyndall wants an open borders single market Brexit, not sure many working class Leavers would have been happy with thatSouthamObserver said:To be fair, if Richard Tyndall had been doing the negotiating we would not be in the mess we are in now. Unlike David Davis, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Nadine Dorries and the rest of the Buccaneers he actually understands the issues because he's pent some time trying to understand them. The kind of Brexit he proposed would have united the country, done very little damage and allowed everyone to move on. Unfortunately, instead of tacking tot he centre when she took over May turned right. Article 50 was invoked, the red lines were drawn and thus the rest was always going to happen.
One could just as easily say it was the er.
Leave won on a prospectus of cutting immigration, something most voters actually support, certainly for lower skilled migration, that has to be respected as a result of the Leave vote.
My position is absolutely correct and the point is not to respect your fewer widget making regulations obsessed Brexit alone but all the reasons Leave won and that includes gaining greater control over immigration as May's Deal does0 -
I thought he was held in contempt prior to the Summer recess on account of cheating.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hearBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
We shall see, although I wonder if such a report was based around the two stage process some think will happen, where it is voted down once, other things tried and not approved, then voted on again. Because it isn't only the ERG regulars voting against, it is people like Raab, Johnson the minor, etc.Benpointer said:
Didn't I read a few days ago he was confident of getting the Deal through? Evidence of more ERG piss and wind?TheWhiteRabbit said:
Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hearBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
Even as the most ardent defender of the deal I have to admit that NI will be subjugated to single market rules for its goods without representation by MEPs.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.0 -
They probably think they can keep the government in limbo, but if they do that too much they may have no choice but to have an early GE.MikeL said:Laura K:
"But they don't consider tonight's abstentions the end of the confidence and supply agreement - but relationship btw DUP and No 10 seems pretty bust - and with it, 10 votes not coming back for Brexit bill?"
I guess that keeps open the possibility DUP might vote with Govt in Confidence Vote - ie they increase the pressure but don't necessarily bring Govt down.
Oh that's right, the pairing business.justin124 said:
I thought he was held in contempt prior to the Summer recess on account of cheating.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hearBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
They aren't being subjugated.Philip_Thompson said:
No they're not being subjugated to Single Market rules?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.
Or no they will have MEPs?0 -
Perhaps the 'Utter utter lying mendacious factually inaccurate bollocks which lacks the merest iota of veracity.' was referring to the link and wordcloud itself! What an odd thing to do.Benpointer said:
You do realise that's a completely fictitious word cloud you've linked to?Bromptonaut said:
Utter utter lying mendacious factually inaccurate bollocks which lacks the merest iota of veracity.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Leave won on a wide ranging prospectus of which cutting immigration was, overall, a minority position. Your position is simply untenable because the whole of Brexit is being put at risk because of an issue supported by only 23% of those who voted.HYUFD said:
Even with your 42% (most of whom I expect wanted immigration controls too) that 42% is not 52% and that 42% for Leave would have meant Remain won.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is a rather illogical argument.HYUFD said:
Yes and it was the consequences of their vote which got Leave to 52%SouthamObserver said:
So what? We all have to live with the consequences of Brexit, not just working class Leave voters.HYUFD said:
Without that set of Leave voters Remain would have wonSouthamObserver said:
The Brexit deal should always have been about what would get most support in the country, not what one set of Leave voters wanted.HYUFD said:
Richard Tyndall wants an open borders single market Brexit, not sure many working class Leavers would have been happy with thatSouthamObserver said:
So that accepted you then have to proceed on what is likely to be the most acceptable deal to the widest number of people. Which clearly was not a hard Brexit nor necessarily one which ended FoM. Instead May chose to put the whole thing at risk by supporting a position which only had the support of perhaps 23% of the electorate and which bound us to decisions that would make Brexit immeasurably harder.
Leave won on a prospectus of cutting immigration, something most voters actually support, certainly for lower skilled migration, that has to be respected as a result of the Leave vote.
https://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/wordcloud_leave-1024x575.png
(Hint - zoom in and take a look at the words round the edge - sovereignty for example appears quite a few times. Those edge words have just been added for effect.)
0 -
Isn’t a key feature of confidence and supply support for, you know, budget votes? The clue is in the name.MikeL said:Laura K:
"But they don't consider tonight's abstentions the end of the confidence and supply agreement - but relationship btw DUP and No 10 seems pretty bust - and with it, 10 votes not coming back for Brexit bill?"
I guess that keeps open the possibility DUP might vote with Govt in Confidence Vote - ie they increase the pressure but don't necessarily bring Govt down.
0 -
It's confidence without supply. An option explored here a while back. Obviously noone will notice if Labour can't organise themselves to actually defeat the Gov't on anything.MikeL said:Laura K:
"But they don't consider tonight's abstentions the end of the confidence and supply agreement - but relationship btw DUP and No 10 seems pretty bust - and with it, 10 votes not coming back for Brexit bill?"
I guess that keeps open the possibility DUP might vote with Govt in Confidence Vote - ie they increase the pressure but don't necessarily bring Govt down.0 -
What, precisely, should have been done to prepare for it?Philip_Thompson said:
So it should have been prepared for.Andy_Cooke said:
If you start from the point of view that the EU is negotiating in bad faith, is explicitly malevolent towards us, and intent on subjugating and diminishing us, then surely there could never have been a Deal agreed with them that was ever remotely acceptable or in any way not malevolent and harmful?GIN1138 said:FPT:
But why would the EU have any interest at all in doing a "sensible deal" after the WA?Deafbloke said:
The sensible compromise is that the deal is passed, but May pays for it with her head. A Brexiteer then takes the helm, to turn the 14 pages of FTA flim-flam into a sensible deal. May can not trusted to deliver.Casino_Royale said:
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.MarqueeMark said:
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
They'll have us exactly where they've always wanted is - A neutered, diminished and impotent nation - You seriously think they'll take their foot off our throat when they have us where they want us?
They'll double down and go for the jugular even more.
In which case, May could not be at fault, and neither could the Remain team. No-one could have obtained an acceptable Deal if the other party had no intent in providing an acceptable Deal.
And a crash-out No Deal Brexit was inevitable from the day the referendum result came in, regardless of whatever Brexiteers promised before or since.
If you want peace prepare for war. The only way to get a good deal is to be serious when you say that no deal is better than a bad one.0 -
It was a mistake, it wasn't anything like what Labour did in the 1970s.justin124 said:
I thought he was held in contempt prior to the Summer recess on account of cheating.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hearBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
I do realise that I'm saying a much more minimalist transition based withdrawal agreement that kicks certain decisions into the transition could be agreed. It's not what the EU wants so they will say no currently but if push comes to shove they're not going to jump over the cliffedge when a lifeline is available.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do not seem to realise A50 requires us to leave at the end of march 19 with either wda or no deal and no transistionPhilip_Thompson said:
Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?Alistair said:
Actually made me angry this one.Scott_P said:
To get an extention to A50 the EU have said they would agree for a second referendum or GE but not on the deal
The lack of detail orb knowledge by ERG has been evident from day one
It still leaves them in a strong position as at the end of the transition we will still want a deal and still face a cliffedge if we haven't agreed one.
If a new PM is elected the EU will simply have to deal with that and move on.0 -
The DUP would say otherwise.TheScreamingEagles said:
They aren't being subjugated.Philip_Thompson said:
No they're not being subjugated to Single Market rules?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.
Or no they will have MEPs?0 -
People should perhaps focus more on what the DUP hope to achieve as an outcome from voting against the deal. It's not just a sulk.0
-
Or the beneficiary of them. Norway seems to be quite happy voluntarily paying a lot of money for the same “subjugation”. You takes your pick...Pulpstar said:
Even as the most ardent defender of the deal I have to admit that NI will be subjugated to single market rules for its goods without representation by MEPs.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.0 -
Not tonight, I'll expand on it tomorrow.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It feels pretty much like they are, at least to an extent. TSE perhaps you could expand.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.
Unlike the terminally stupid Leavers who condemned the agreement before they had read it I like to fully source my expansions.0 -
So Single Market rules won't apply in Northern Ireland. Ok I change my mind then I'm fine with this. Let's start changing our rules as we see fit for the whole UK.TheScreamingEagles said:
They aren't being subjugated.Philip_Thompson said:
No they're not being subjugated to Single Market rules?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.
Or no they will have MEPs?0 -
If your answer is about the word "subjugated", fine.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not tonight, I'll expand on it tomorrow.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It feels pretty much like they are, at least to an extent. TSE perhaps you could expand.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.
Unlike the terminally stupid Leavers who condemned the agreement before they had read it I like to fully source my expansions.0 -
We're redefining cabinet government at the moment as people claim policy announced by the PM and officially backed by the Cabinet is not government policy and people are still free to do as they will, so why not redefine confidence and supply support as well.numbertwelve said:
Isn’t a key feature of confidence and supply support for, you know, budget votes? The clue is in the name.MikeL said:Laura K:
"But they don't consider tonight's abstentions the end of the confidence and supply agreement - but relationship btw DUP and No 10 seems pretty bust - and with it, 10 votes not coming back for Brexit bill?"
I guess that keeps open the possibility DUP might vote with Govt in Confidence Vote - ie they increase the pressure but don't necessarily bring Govt down.0 -
The DUP think Westminster delivering equality in Northern Ireland was subjugation and the work of the anti-Christ and gay lovers from Rome.*Pulpstar said:
The DUP would say otherwise.TheScreamingEagles said:
They aren't being subjugated.Philip_Thompson said:
No they're not being subjugated to Single Market rules?TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.
Or no they will have MEPs?
*Which is effectively The Reverend Ian Paisley said when Mrs Thatcher civilised Scotland and Northern Ireland by decriminalising homosexuality.0 -
Are we including Kate Hoey in the DUP here ?williamglenn said:People should perhaps focus more on what the DUP hope to achieve as an outcome from voting against the deal. It's not just a sulk.
0 -
The only way to ensure a good deal is to know that in a war you are likely to win and cause more damage to your opponent than they are to you in order to achieve it.Philip_Thompson said:
So it should have been prepared for.Andy_Cooke said:
If you start from the point of view that the EU is negotiating in bad faith, is explicitly malevolent towards us, and intent on subjugating and diminishing us, then surely there could never have been a Deal agreed with them that was ever remotely acceptable or in any way not malevolent and harmful?GIN1138 said:FPT:
But why would the EU have any inhe jugular even more.Deafbloke said:
The sensible compromise is that the deal is passed, but May pays for it with her head. A Brexiteer then takes the helm, to turn the 14 pages of FTA flim-flam into a sensible deal. May can not trusted to deliver.Casino_Royale said:
If this deal doesn’t pass we won’t be Leaving, mate.MarqueeMark said:
There is much to be said for ERG holding back and following the Fabricant line - wait until her deal has been voted down in Westminster. Then put the letters in, when she is self-evidently a failed PM.Casino_Royale said:
I’d sell the deal to the ERG by getting her to go in 2019 and getting a proper Leaver, like Gove, to lead the full FTA negotiations.Pulpstar said:
Once May either has this deal through or it is rejected then it is probably time for her to go. She's done more for this country than we deserve quite frankly, and deserves a good rest.GIN1138 said:
Yep it'll be Corbyn, Corbyn, Corbyn 24/7bigjohnowls said:Tory GE Manifesto
We dont have any actual policies and hey we may have fucked up Brexit but the alternative is Jezza.
I doubt it will wash though. It was barely enough in 2017 afterall...
The replacement-PM candidates can put in their pitch to MPs what they would do next.
It’s sub-par and May’s cocked up, but we’ve got no choice. Eyes on the prize.
In which case, May could not be at fault, and neither could the Remain team. No-one could have obtained an acceptable Deal if the other party had no intent in providing an acceptable Deal.
And a crash-out No Deal Brexit was inevitable from the day the referendum result came in, regardless of whatever Brexiteers promised before or since.
If you want peace prepare for war. The only way to get a good deal is to be serious when you say that no deal is better than a bad one.
When just 16% of EU exports go to the UK but 44% of EU exports go to the UK that will be rather difficult0 -
As far as I am aware , the Opposition can table a Vote of No Confidence as often as it sees fit. I recall Thatcher doing that to the Callaghan Government on a regular basis in the late 1970s. I don't think there are any rules which restrict the Opposition from trying again should its initial attempt not succeed.0
-
Pedantry on PB? It'll never catch on.TheWhiteRabbit said:
If your answer is about the word "subjugated", fine.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not tonight, I'll expand on it tomorrow.TheWhiteRabbit said:
It feels pretty much like they are, at least to an extent. TSE perhaps you could expand.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.
Unlike the terminally stupid Leavers who condemned the agreement before they had read it I like to fully source my expansions.0 -
Wasn't he have supposed to have asked people to break pairing arrangements, how does one do that by accident? And why would people doing worse in the past make something in the present ok?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a mistake, it wasn't anything like what Labour did in the 1970s.justin124 said:
I thought he was held in contempt prior to the Summer recess on account of cheating.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hearBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~2580 -
Does loss on an overall finance bill vote (not an amendment) constitute a VONC under The Worst Piece of Legislation of The Past Decade aka the crazy FTPA?Pulpstar said:
It's confidence without supply. An option explored here a while back. Obviously noone will notice if Labour can't organise themselves to actually defeat the Gov't on anything.MikeL said:Laura K:
"But they don't consider tonight's abstentions the end of the confidence and supply agreement - but relationship btw DUP and No 10 seems pretty bust - and with it, 10 votes not coming back for Brexit bill?"
I guess that keeps open the possibility DUP might vote with Govt in Confidence Vote - ie they increase the pressure but don't necessarily bring Govt down.
The sooner someone actually gets round to repealing that constitutional monstrosity, the better.0 -
-
The DUP seem quite happy Northern Ireland being subjugated by the Northern Ireland office as the moment. Don’t seem too fussed about making their own decisions. And let’s not get started on the voters favouring Sinn Fein...0
-
That's Norway's choice, ratified by Norway and Norway can unilaterally end the arrangement when they want.alex. said:
Or the beneficiary of them. Norway seems to be quite happy voluntarily paying a lot of money for the same “subjugation”. You takes your pick...Pulpstar said:
Even as the most ardent defender of the deal I have to admit that NI will be subjugated to single market rules for its goods without representation by MEPs.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.
When did Northern Ireland choose to be subjugated to foreign rules differing from the rest of the UK's, when did Northern Ireland ratify that choice and how can they unilaterally get out of it?
I have no problem with them being subject to rules they've chosen unilaterally to follow and unilaterally can choose to stop following. But to be forced to follow rules, without your consent is subjugation.0 -
To be fair failure to pass a budget has always constituted an effective vote of confidence.numbertwelve said:
Does loss on an overall finance bill vote (not an amendment) constitute a VONC under The Worst Piece of Legislation of The Past Decade aka the crazy FTPA?Pulpstar said:
It's confidence without supply. An option explored here a while back. Obviously noone will notice if Labour can't organise themselves to actually defeat the Gov't on anything.MikeL said:Laura K:
"But they don't consider tonight's abstentions the end of the confidence and supply agreement - but relationship btw DUP and No 10 seems pretty bust - and with it, 10 votes not coming back for Brexit bill?"
I guess that keeps open the possibility DUP might vote with Govt in Confidence Vote - ie they increase the pressure but don't necessarily bring Govt down.
The sooner someone actually gets round to repealing that constitutional monstrosity, the better.
0 -
I do this with respect but you are so naive if you think the EU are going to open the dealPhilip_Thompson said:
I do realise that I'm saying a much more minimalist transition based withdrawal agreement that kicks certain decisions into the transition could be agreed. It's not what the EU wants so they will say no currently but if push comes to shove they're not going to jump over the cliffedge when a lifeline is available.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You do not seem to realise A50 requires us to leave at the end of march 19 with either wda or no deal and no transistionPhilip_Thompson said:
Davis is right. While the EU are pretending now this deal is the only way to get a transition that is a nonsense. All a transition is, is an extension of us continuing to pay them billions and follow their rules. If we reject this deal and a new PM goes to Brussels and says "time's up, this deal is dead but we need something new so here is £39bn pounds and we will follow your rules for the next 2 years now let's talk" then do you really think Brussels is going to say no?Alistair said:
Actually made me angry this one.Scott_P said:
To get an extention to A50 the EU have said they would agree for a second referendum or GE but not on the deal
The lack of detail orb knowledge by ERG has been evident from day one
It still leaves them in a strong position as at the end of the transition we will still want a deal and still face a cliffedge if we haven't agreed one.
If a new PM is elected the EU will simply have to deal with that and move on.
0 -
That's pretty much a declaration of war between DUP and Theresa May.TheScreamingEagles said:
In the words of Dexy's Midnight Runners - Come On Arlene...
0 -
Thanks - had not come across the electoral-vote site before - it has some interesting articles.rpjs said:
Electoral Vote today had an interesting analysis of why Rasmussen tends to favour the GOP: https://electoral-vote.com/#item-9 (third item in the "Monday Q&A")Andrew said:
Indeed! Sticking to their guns it seems - I guess it would be rather silly if they suddenly went from +1 to -10 like everyone else.rpjs said:
That'd be the same Rasmussen that showed the Republicans with a 1% lead in the House generic poll just before the midterms would it?0 -
I realised I wasn’t being clear in that post, I meant does it still constitute a VONC.alex. said:
To be fair failure to pass a budget has always constituted an effective vote of confidence.numbertwelve said:
Does loss on an overall finance bill vote (not an amendment) constitute a VONC under The Worst Piece of Legislation of The Past Decade aka the crazy FTPA?Pulpstar said:
It's confidence without supply. An option explored here a while back. Obviously noone will notice if Labour can't organise themselves to actually defeat the Gov't on anything.MikeL said:Laura K:
"But they don't consider tonight's abstentions the end of the confidence and supply agreement - but relationship btw DUP and No 10 seems pretty bust - and with it, 10 votes not coming back for Brexit bill?"
I guess that keeps open the possibility DUP might vote with Govt in Confidence Vote - ie they increase the pressure but don't necessarily bring Govt down.
The sooner someone actually gets round to repealing that constitutional monstrosity, the better.0 -
Hmm, she's a kind of unholy alliance of the DUP, ERG and TUC.Pulpstar said:
Are we including Kate Hoey in the DUP here ?williamglenn said:People should perhaps focus more on what the DUP hope to achieve as an outcome from voting against the deal. It's not just a sulk.
0 -
Personally I can't see the issue with it, but it was obviously a red line for the DUP.alex. said:
Or the beneficiary of them. Norway seems to be quite happy voluntarily paying a lot of money for the same “subjugation”. You takes your pick...Pulpstar said:
Even as the most ardent defender of the deal I have to admit that NI will be subjugated to single market rules for its goods without representation by MEPs.TheScreamingEagles said:
No.Philip_Thompson said:
Are Northern Ireland being subjugated to Single Market rules without having any MEPs or European Council votes etc to shape them?TheScreamingEagles said:
The DUP should read the deal before acting like a woman scorned.Philip_Thompson said:
Time to chuck the pound shop Gordon Brown who threw away the majority, signed a deal with the DUP then betrayed the DUP into the sea.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to chuck the DUP, if not Northern Ireland, into the sea.
https://twitter.com/gordonrayner/status/1064617150751621126
The DUP aren't the ones who have terminated the deal, May has reneged on her commitments to them.0 -
Second referendum here we come.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
He said it was a genuine mistake, in the 1970s the Labour whips were handing out wigs and disguises so Labour MPs could vote twice.kle4 said:
Wasn't he have supposed to have asked people to break pairing arrangements, how does one do that by accident? And why would people doing worse in the past make something in the present ok?TheScreamingEagles said:
It was a mistake, it wasn't anything like what Labour did in the 1970s.justin124 said:
I thought he was held in contempt prior to the Summer recess on account of cheating.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Julian Smith is held in very high regard or so I hearBig_G_NorthWales said:
The whips are amazing at present. Long may it continueTheWhiteRabbit said:
It was 292 not 295 Tories, but definitely some unforced errors from Labour herePulpstar said:
At least 11 non paired Labourites. Where are they lol ?! I thought Labour wanted a GE !TheWhiteRabbit said:Cons got 295 votes plus two tellers out of ~315
Lab 227 plus two tellers of ~258
Sent Tory and Labour MPs out on visits overseas, then made the Labour MPs stay and call the vote once the Tory MPs were airborne.
My favourite, told a Commons policeman that a Tory MP was in fact a male prostitute who was engaged in cottaging just outside the Commons so said MP would miss a vote.0 -
Wrong. Even your absurd 42% figure is not a majority.Richard_Tyndall said:
And yet the polls prove you wrong. Its a bitch isn't it.HYUFD said:
Yup. Cutting immigration was a pivotal part of Leave getting over 50%.Richard_Tyndall said:
Nope. Leave won on a wide ranging prospectus of which cutting immigration was, overall, a minority position. Your position is simply untenable because the whole of Brexit is being put at risk because of an issue supported by only 23% of those who voted.HYUFD said:
Even with your 42% (most of tion, that has to be respected as a result of the Leave vote.Richard_Tyndall said:
This is a rather illogical argument.HYUFD said:
Yes and it was the consequences of their vote which got Leave to 52%SouthamObserver said:
So what? We all have to live with the consequences of Brexit, not just working class Leave voters.HYUFD said:
Without that set of Leave voters Remain would have wonSouthamObserver said:
The Brexit deal should always have been about what would get most support in the country, not what one set of Leave voters wanted.HYUFD said:
Richard Tyndall wants an open borders single market Brexit, not sure many working class Leavers would have been happy with thatSouthamObserver said:To be fair, if Richard Tyndall had been doing the negotiating we would not be in the mess we are in now. Unlike David Davis, Dominic Raab, Boris Johnson, Nadine Dorries and the rest of the Buccaneers he actually understands the issues because he's pent some time trying to understand them. The kind of Brexit he proposed would have united the country, done very little damage and allowed everyone to move on. Unfortunately, instead of tacking tot he centre when she took over May turned right. Article 50 was invoked, the red lines were drawn and thus the rest was always going to happen.
One could just as easily say it was the er.
My position is absolutely correct and the point is not to respect your fewer widget making regulations obsessed Brexit alone but all the reasons Leave won and that includes gaining greater control over immigration as May's Deal does
The chance for the UK to 'regain control over immigration and its own borders' was the second biggest reason given for voting Leave
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
0 -
The government has agreed Chuka Umunna mendment to publish the impact statement between staying in the EU and this deal
Clever move as TM moves towards this deal or no brexit0
This discussion has been closed.