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SystemSystem Posts: 12,681
edited November 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The DUP would be taking a big gamble defying Northern Ireland’s farmers on Brexit

Problems building on the DUP's home patch over its approach to TMay's Brexit deal

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    edited November 2018
    Johnston Press: Publisher of i paper bought out

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46243622

    Some people / funds clearly have money to burn. It is the modern day equivalent of KLF burning a million quid.

    First - as in where Trump claims he finishes in any test.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Logic and commonsense, or even decency have never been a strong point of the DUP - it's the nature of the beast.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    edited November 2018
    Labour MP is LYING about speeding claim, says her ex-aide: He says she drove to his alone on night she claims 'untraceable' Russian man was driving her Nissan Micra

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6397457/Former-aide-says-Labour-MPs-drove-house-claims-Russian-speeding-car.html

    Given how much publicity the Hulme case got, this seems to have slipped under the radar. It is as if other stuff is going on in the world that is keeping the media eye more occupied, no idea what it is.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    We think the Tory dust up is bad,

    Flying fists and pelted bottles – warring politicians shock Sri Lanka

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/17/sri-lanka-fists-fly-collapsing-government-crisis-mahinda-rajapaksa

    Not sure we will see JRM hurling chairs anytime soon. He might instruct the nanny to do so on his behalf though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Labour MP is LYING about speeding claim, says her ex-aide: He says she drove to his alone on night she claims 'untraceable' Russian man was driving her Nissan Micra

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6397457/Former-aide-says-Labour-MPs-drove-house-claims-Russian-speeding-car.html

    Given how much publicity the Hulme case got, this seems to have slipped under the radar. It is as if other stuff is going on in the world that is keeping the media eye more occupied, no idea what it is.

    Tbf, Huhne was a significant figure in one of the governing parties at the time so I can see why that got more attention.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's odd that fuel prices are apparently rising in France when the oil price has dropped quite a bit in recent weeks.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Labour MP is LYING about speeding claim, says her ex-aide: He says she drove to his alone on night she claims 'untraceable' Russian man was driving her Nissan Micra

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6397457/Former-aide-says-Labour-MPs-drove-house-claims-Russian-speeding-car.html

    Given how much publicity the Hulme case got, this seems to have slipped under the radar. It is as if other stuff is going on in the world that is keeping the media eye more occupied, no idea what it is.

    Tbf, Huhne was a significant figure in one of the governing parties at the time so I can see why that got more attention.
    Well that and it was a really good tabloid story. Estranged wife etc etc etc.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    They will shrug this off the way Boris Johnson shrugged off business. They’re too deep in now to backtrack.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    edited November 2018
    AndyJS said:

    It's odd that fuel prices are apparently rising in France when the oil price has dropped quite a bit in recent weeks.

    his government has voted increases in a carbon tax and decided in particular to ramp up the price of diesel, the most commonly used car fuel in France.

    Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/macron-refuses-to-back-down-on-french-fuel-tax-as-protests-loom-10900232

    Apparently cost to French diesel owner is up over 20% in past 12 months.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    AndyJS said:

    It's odd that fuel prices are apparently rising in France when the oil price has dropped quite a bit in recent weeks.

    If my French hasn't let me down from the news in Geneva at breakfast on Wednesday the government has introduced another fuel tax.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    AndyJS said:

    It's odd that fuel prices are apparently rising in France when the oil price has dropped quite a bit in recent weeks.

    It's because Macron has significantly increased the duty on diesel in order (he says) to discourage fossil fuel usage. The next rise is due to take effect in January so the protesters are hoping to change the policy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Contrary to its reputation for public transport, about 70 percent of the French drive to work everyday, according to state statistical unit Insee, compared with about 76 percent in the U.S.

    Diesel prices at the pump in France have risen 18 percent so far this year to an average 1.52 euros per liter, and gasoline is up 11 percent to 1.56 euros per liter, according to data compiled by UFIP, the French oil industry federation.

    The increase, caused by rising oil prices, was inflated by a hike on a hydrocarbon tax at the start of the year -- part of the government policy to fight pollution caused by fossil fuels -- that added 7.6 cents per liter of diesel and 3.9 cents to gasoline.

    A new boost in the levy will add another 6.5 cents per liter of diesel and 2.9 cents per liter of gasoline at the start of next year, part of an effort to bring diesel and gasoline taxes in line.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-05/as-gas-price-at-pump-heads-north-macron-popularity-turns-south
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Seems like Macron really is the French Blair....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    FPT:
    JosiasJessop said:

    tlg86 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tlg86 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pass me the sick bucket...

    10. The Mandelson Pension Clause: The UK must promise never to tax former EU officials based here – such as Peter Mandelson or Neil Kinnock – on their E.U. pensions, or tax any current Brussels bureaucrats on their salaries. The EU and its employees are to be immune to our tax laws. (Article 104)

    This provision of the agreement respects rights which individuals have acquired during 40 years of membership of the EU. It would not be appropriate for these rights to be summarily removed.

    If that was the existing arrangement, it seems utterly reasonable to me. And an exceptionally cheap concession for us to make in the grand scheme of things.
    Really? We're always told that leaving the EU means losing benefits of membership. Funny how these "benefits" are protected.
    Yes, it really does seem reasonable.

    And you're willing to see the country burn over that sort of trifle?
    I admit that I have much bigger reservations about this - namely that we won't actually leave the single market, CAP, CFP, FoM etc in 2020 - but I admit that it is galling to see the likes of Kinnock (yes, and Tories and Kippers) to keep dodging tax.
    Ah, so pensions rights should depend on whether *you* personally like someone or not.

    Cool.
    They'd still get their pensions would they not? Or is the suggestion that if the government hadn't agreed to not tax them that the EU may have cut them off?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Johnston Press: Publisher of i paper bought out

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46243622

    Some people / funds clearly have money to burn. It is the modern day equivalent of KLF burning a million quid.

    First - as in where Trump claims he finishes in any test.

    Respect is due for a klf reference...
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    The DUP would be letting down the U.K. which they profess to be so proud to be part of if they voted in favour of this shameful deal. They should stand their ground and vote against it. If they don’t, all their protestations about the backstop will just be so much hypocrisy. Voting in favour of this deal will only benefit Sinn Fein in both Assembly and Westminster elections.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    Ireland showing how to do it against All Blacks.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Yet the UUP have come out against May's deal and are attacking the DUP from the right on it. They are arguing the backstop is so bad the DUP should have killed it last December before May signed into it. Their critique is the DUP haven't been extreme enough on this. And from a party that campaigned for Remain. Unfortunately the DUP's main electoral competitor is outflanking them on the right on this not dragging them centre.

    Also remember how left wing on socioeconomics the DUP can be. If No Deal shafts Farmers which then results in bigger emergency transfers from *Westminster* many will see that as a good result.

    In the short term pro business unionists who back the backstop have nowhere else to go other than Alliance unless they really are going to vote for a nationalist party. Some better educated, urban, liberal unionists may well protest vote Alliance but the DUP can sit that out in the short/medium term.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tlg86 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tlg86 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pass me the sick bucket...

    10. The Mandelson Pension Clause: The UK must promise never to tax former EU officials based here – such as Peter Mandelson or Neil Kinnock – on their E.U. pensions, or tax any current Brussels bureaucrats on their salaries. The EU and its employees are to be immune to our tax laws. (Article 104)

    This provision of the agreement respects rights which individuals have acquired during 40 years of membership of the EU. It would not be appropriate for these rights to be summarily removed.

    If that was the existing arrangement, it seems utterly reasonable to me. And an exceptionally cheap concession for us to make in the grand scheme of things.
    Really? We're always told that leaving the EU means losing benefits of membership. Funny how these "benefits" are protected.
    Yes, it really does seem reasonable.

    And you're willing to see the country burn over that sort of trifle?
    I admit that I have much bigger reservations about this - namely that we won't actually leave the single market, CAP, CFP, FoM etc in 2020 - but I admit that it is galling to see the likes of Kinnock (yes, and Tories and Kippers) to keep dodging tax.
    Ah, so pensions rights should depend on whether *you* personally like someone or not.

    Cool.
    They'd still get their pensions would they not? Or is the suggestion that if the government hadn't agreed to not tax them that the EU may have cut them off?
    There are various non-standard treatments of pensions for staff of supras, for example I think that UN pension lump sums are tax exempt in most countries though the pension itself isn't (at least if remitted). As I understand it this treatment arises from the membership treaty/agreement of each nation state and it seems reasonable that the treatment would continue to apply to pensions that accrued when the nation state was party to the treaty, even if it subsequently leaves. The argument would go that the pension levels are set (by the members) based on the relevant tax treatment applying when they are paid - or to put it another way, this is something we've already committed to so it's a big step to renege.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Contrary to its reputation for public transport, about 70 percent of the French drive to work everyday, according to state statistical unit Insee, compared with about 76 percent in the U.S.

    Diesel prices at the pump in France have risen 18 percent so far this year to an average 1.52 euros per liter, and gasoline is up 11 percent to 1.56 euros per liter, according to data compiled by UFIP, the French oil industry federation.

    The increase, caused by rising oil prices, was inflated by a hike on a hydrocarbon tax at the start of the year -- part of the government policy to fight pollution caused by fossil fuels -- that added 7.6 cents per liter of diesel and 3.9 cents to gasoline.

    A new boost in the levy will add another 6.5 cents per liter of diesel and 2.9 cents per liter of gasoline at the start of next year, part of an effort to bring diesel and gasoline taxes in line.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-05/as-gas-price-at-pump-heads-north-macron-popularity-turns-south

    One of the big issues on transport is the sheer size of the country and the relatively large distances between towns of a significant size. Outside of the metropolitan areas the population is very dispersed and so meaningful public transport is hard to make efficient. I have a cottage in Brittany and my nearest bank is about 12 miles away and it's around 15 miles to the nearest supermarket. A lot of rural villages have had bakeries and post offices close and so travelling for 'essentials' has become quite a problem, especially for the elderly who may not have the capacity/desire to drive. (Sadly, some of the elderly who shouldn't be driving use the voitures sans permis and create traffic chaos)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Latest score in the New Zealand v Ireland match: 13/1.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/45659276
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    edited November 2018
    They'll be fine. Not every seat of theirs is rock solid safe, but they don't seem particularly concerned. As Mr Meeks notes, they have taken it too far to back down (the same reason Tory backbenchers and labour rebels cannot back the deal either).

    Edit: Plus the UUP apparently are also against the deal, so potential consequences are even lower than they might be.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,258
    edited November 2018
    My heart truly bleeds for them.

    They really are dicks, and I have thought that ever since Foster's egoism and incompetence caused the collapse of power sharing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    Cheerio Northern Ireland.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    YellowSubmarine said:

    Yet the UUP have come out against May's deal and are attacking the DUP from the right on it. They are arguing the backstop is so bad the DUP should have killed it last December before May signed into it. Their critique is the DUP haven't been extreme enough on this. And from a party that campaigned for Remain. Unfortunately the DUP's main electoral competitor is outflanking them on the right on this not dragging them centre.

    Also remember how left wing on socioeconomics the DUP can be. If No Deal shafts Farmers which then results in bigger emergency transfers from *Westminster* many will see that as a good result.

    In the short term pro business unionists who back the backstop have nowhere else to go other than Alliance unless they really are going to vote for a nationalist party. Some better educated, urban, liberal unionists may well protest vote Alliance but the DUP can sit that out in the short/medium term.

    Presumably if the DUP withdraw support from the Government they can expect the flow of funds to dry up as well...?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    TudorRose said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Contrary to its reputation for public transport, about 70 percent of the French drive to work everyday, according to state statistical unit Insee, compared with about 76 percent in the U.S.

    Diesel prices at the pump in France have risen 18 percent so far this year to an average 1.52 euros per liter, and gasoline is up 11 percent to 1.56 euros per liter, according to data compiled by UFIP, the French oil industry federation.

    The increase, caused by rising oil prices, was inflated by a hike on a hydrocarbon tax at the start of the year -- part of the government policy to fight pollution caused by fossil fuels -- that added 7.6 cents per liter of diesel and 3.9 cents to gasoline.

    A new boost in the levy will add another 6.5 cents per liter of diesel and 2.9 cents per liter of gasoline at the start of next year, part of an effort to bring diesel and gasoline taxes in line.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-05/as-gas-price-at-pump-heads-north-macron-popularity-turns-south

    One of the big issues on transport is the sheer size of the country and the relatively large distances between towns of a significant size. Outside of the metropolitan areas the population is very dispersed and so meaningful public transport is hard to make efficient. I have a cottage in Brittany and my nearest bank is about 12 miles away and it's around 15 miles to the nearest supermarket. A lot of rural villages have had bakeries and post offices close and so travelling for 'essentials' has become quite a problem, especially for the elderly who may not have the capacity/desire to drive. (Sadly, some of the elderly who shouldn't be driving use the voitures sans permis and create traffic chaos)
    Jesus Christ,

    14 year old kids, banned drunk drivers, etc can use them.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35210572

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    kle4 said:

    They'll be fine. Not every seat of theirs is rock solid safe, but they don't seem particularly concerned. As Mr Meeks notes, they have taken it too far to back down (the same reason Tory backbenchers and labour rebels cannot back the deal either).


    I thought the complaint of Brexiteers was that the elite did not listen to the people. Now the people of NI - farmers - are speaking, the DUP are ignoring them. So much for concern for the people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    TudorRose said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Yet the UUP have come out against May's deal and are attacking the DUP from the right on it. They are arguing the backstop is so bad the DUP should have killed it last December before May signed into it. Their critique is the DUP haven't been extreme enough on this. And from a party that campaigned for Remain. Unfortunately the DUP's main electoral competitor is outflanking them on the right on this not dragging them centre.

    Also remember how left wing on socioeconomics the DUP can be. If No Deal shafts Farmers which then results in bigger emergency transfers from *Westminster* many will see that as a good result.

    In the short term pro business unionists who back the backstop have nowhere else to go other than Alliance unless they really are going to vote for a nationalist party. Some better educated, urban, liberal unionists may well protest vote Alliance but the DUP can sit that out in the short/medium term.

    Presumably if the DUP withdraw support from the Government they can expect the flow of funds to dry up as well...?
    They are betting that the deal fails, May goes, and something else is in its place and their arrangement can then continue, money included.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    All Blacks on the ropes here. England are a million miles behind these two teams.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,258
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's odd that fuel prices are apparently rising in France when the oil price has dropped quite a bit in recent weeks.

    his government has voted increases in a carbon tax and decided in particular to ramp up the price of diesel, the most commonly used car fuel in France.

    Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/macron-refuses-to-back-down-on-french-fuel-tax-as-protests-loom-10900232

    Apparently cost to French diesel owner is up over 20% in past 12 months.
    All these carbon taxes are all well and good if there are realistic alternatives to nudge people towards. So, several of my colleagues have electric cars. Fine, for them. But what about me who has to drive back and forth to a remote part of Gloucestershire from Cannock at high speed regularly (once a fortnight or more)?

    It just looks like the government miliking a captive market, and however much I despise rioting I understand where they're coming from?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,786
    Big swing to Labour (rather than UKIP, though they gain too) in Opinium:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TudorRose said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Contrary to its reputation for public transport, about 70 percent of the French drive to work everyday, according to state statistical unit Insee, compared with about 76 percent in the U.S.

    Diesel prices at the pump in France have risen 18 percent so far this year to an average 1.52 euros per liter, and gasoline is up 11 percent to 1.56 euros per liter, according to data compiled by UFIP, the French oil industry federation.

    The increase, caused by rising oil prices, was inflated by a hike on a hydrocarbon tax at the start of the year -- part of the government policy to fight pollution caused by fossil fuels -- that added 7.6 cents per liter of diesel and 3.9 cents to gasoline.

    A new boost in the levy will add another 6.5 cents per liter of diesel and 2.9 cents per liter of gasoline at the start of next year, part of an effort to bring diesel and gasoline taxes in line.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-05/as-gas-price-at-pump-heads-north-macron-popularity-turns-south

    One of the big issues on transport is the sheer size of the country and the relatively large distances between towns of a significant size. Outside of the metropolitan areas the population is very dispersed and so meaningful public transport is hard to make efficient. I have a cottage in Brittany and my nearest bank is about 12 miles away and it's around 15 miles to the nearest supermarket. A lot of rural villages have had bakeries and post offices close and so travelling for 'essentials' has become quite a problem, especially for the elderly who may not have the capacity/desire to drive. (Sadly, some of the elderly who shouldn't be driving use the voitures sans permis and create traffic chaos)
    Jesus Christ,

    14 year old kids, banned drunk drivers, etc can use them.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35210572

    Yep - fortunately many of the rural roads are rarely used (I guess around 30 vehicles go past my cottage in an average day) but the accidents caused by these vehicles are both predictable and frequent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    They'll be fine. Not every seat of theirs is rock solid safe, but they don't seem particularly concerned. As Mr Meeks notes, they have taken it too far to back down (the same reason Tory backbenchers and labour rebels cannot back the deal either).


    I thought the complaint of Brexiteers was that the elite did not listen to the people. Now the people of NI - farmers - are speaking, the DUP are ignoring them. So much for concern for the people.
    The question is will they face consequences for not listening to these particular people. The answer appears to be no. Parties do it all the time of course, helped by tribalism to face no or limited consequences.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    kle4 said:

    TudorRose said:

    YellowSubmarine said:

    Yet the UUP have come out against May's deal and are attacking the DUP from the right on it. They are arguing the backstop is so bad the DUP should have killed it last December before May signed into it. Their critique is the DUP haven't been extreme enough on this. And from a party that campaigned for Remain. Unfortunately the DUP's main electoral competitor is outflanking them on the right on this not dragging them centre.

    Also remember how left wing on socioeconomics the DUP can be. If No Deal shafts Farmers which then results in bigger emergency transfers from *Westminster* many will see that as a good result.

    In the short term pro business unionists who back the backstop have nowhere else to go other than Alliance unless they really are going to vote for a nationalist party. Some better educated, urban, liberal unionists may well protest vote Alliance but the DUP can sit that out in the short/medium term.

    Presumably if the DUP withdraw support from the Government they can expect the flow of funds to dry up as well...?
    They are betting that the deal fails, May goes, and something else is in its place and their arrangement can then continue, money included.
    Good luck with that if the 'something else' is Corbyn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    NickPalmer said:

    Big swing to Labour (rather than UKIP, though they gain too) in Opinium:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    So what? They led after Chequers was announced, they had leads before then too. It is astonishing that the Tories have held consistent if small leads for months when they are so chaotic and incompetent.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,751
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    They'll be fine. Not every seat of theirs is rock solid safe, but they don't seem particularly concerned. As Mr Meeks notes, they have taken it too far to back down (the same reason Tory backbenchers and labour rebels cannot back the deal either).


    I thought the complaint of Brexiteers was that the elite did not listen to the people. Now the people of NI - farmers - are speaking, the DUP are ignoring them. So much for concern for the people.
    The question is will they face consequences for not listening to these particular people. The answer appears to be no. Parties do it all the time of course, helped by tribalism to face no or limited consequences.
    No party has a right to live for ever. Look at the Ulster Unionists.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    NickPalmer said:

    Big swing to Labour (rather than UKIP, though they gain too) in Opinium:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Oh dear. Those figures are *remarkably* similar to the post Chequers polling. As soon as you open the box and the wave form on Brexit collapses giving a particular rather than quantum Brexit a good chunk of folk hate it. It's why the Tory strategy of relying on ' once in 20 year ' Brexit irregular voters is so problematic. You'd need a heart of stone not to laugh.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Many farmers in Belfast? Seem to be rather a lot of the DUP thereabouts
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    That's certainly one of Theresa's favourite lines.

    Less used elsewhere of course.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    NickPalmer said:

    Big swing to Labour (rather than UKIP, though they gain too) in Opinium:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Course there's a big swing to Labour. Everyone thinks Labour will offer a second vote and then if we vote to leave McDonnell says Labour will negotiate a great deal. What's not to like?
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018
    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    tlg86 said:

    FPT:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tlg86 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tlg86 said:

    JosiasJessop said:

    tlg86 said:

    Pass me the sick bucket...

    10. The Mandelson Pension Clause: The UK must promise never to tax former EU officials based here – such as Peter Mandelson or Neil Kinnock – on their E.U. pensions, or tax any current Brussels bureaucrats on their salaries. The EU and its employees are to be immune to our tax laws. (Article 104)

    This provision of the agreement respects rights which individuals have acquired during 40 years of membership of the EU. It would not be appropriate for these rights to be summarily removed.

    If that was the existing arrangement, it seems utterly reasonable to me. And an exceptionally cheap concession for us to make in the grand scheme of things.
    Really? We're always told that leaving the EU means losing benefits of membership. Funny how these "benefits" are protected.
    Yes, it really does seem reasonable.

    And you're willing to see the country burn over that sort of trifle?
    I admit that I have much bigger reservations about this - namely that we won't actually leave the single market, CAP, CFP, FoM etc in 2020 - but I admit that it is galling to see the likes of Kinnock (yes, and Tories and Kippers) to keep dodging tax.
    Ah, so pensions rights should depend on whether *you* personally like someone or not.

    Cool.
    They'd still get their pensions would they not? Or is the suggestion that if the government hadn't agreed to not tax them that the EU may have cut them off?
    I think the question of 'pension rights' that JJ is posing is misleading. If I earn monies in Norway then under reciprocal taxation agreements any tax taken in Norway counts against my tax liabilities in the UK. In the case of Norway this means I effectively pay no income tax in the UK because the Norwegian taxes are so punitive. But the Norwegians are not able to ring fence certain aspects of my earnings (such as pensions) and tell the UK they are not allowed to tax them. If we are outside the EU then the EU should not be able to dictate what our tax policy is. Any income should be liable for consideration under UK tax law just as it is if I earn monies working in another country or if I earn my money entirely within this country.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    They'll be fine. Not every seat of theirs is rock solid safe, but they don't seem particularly concerned. As Mr Meeks notes, they have taken it too far to back down (the same reason Tory backbenchers and labour rebels cannot back the deal either).


    I thought the complaint of Brexiteers was that the elite did not listen to the people. Now the people of NI - farmers - are speaking, the DUP are ignoring them. So much for concern for the people.
    We listen to the people
    You are experts
    They are traitors
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,204
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    47% of the Country want TM to do brexit

    The polls just now will be all over the place and for some time to come

    The good news is that by mid December the votes will have take place and the matter may well be clearer though not the political turmoil

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    If only Ireland hadn't been partitioned!

    Blame Craig. And Griffiths.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    OT thanks for all the 'welcome backs' from everyone. I am afraid my return counts as something as a personal failure as, rather like smoking, I had come to consider PB as a vice I needed to give up.

    Unlike smoking I have been unable to maintain my resolve.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    OT thanks for all the 'welcome backs' from everyone. I am afraid my return counts as something as a personal failure as, rather like smoking, I had come to consider PB as a vice I needed to give up.

    Unlike smoking I have been unable to maintain my resolve.

    Try to be a social pber. You have been much missed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    OT thanks for all the 'welcome backs' from everyone. I am afraid my return counts as something as a personal failure as, rather like smoking, I had come to consider PB as a vice I needed to give up.

    Unlike smoking I have been unable to maintain my resolve.

    Welcome back. At least PB doesn't give you lung cancer :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited November 2018
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    I would rather take the 36% (still the same as the Tories got under Cameron) and give Kipper protest voters time to get over their tantrum than the 26% we may end up with under No Deal and all the economic damage that will bring.

    In any case I think the DUP may abstain on a no confidence vote rather than vote with Corbyn unless he can promise them he will abandon the backstop which he won't
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,258
    edited November 2018
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    If only Ireland hadn't been partitioned!

    Blame Craig. And Griffiths.

    You're learning :smile:

    Edit - but you're still forgetting Collins.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited November 2018
    AlastairMeeks said:

    They will shrug this off the way Boris Johnson shrugged off business. They’re too deep in now to backtrack.

    I'm not so sure. They are good at brinkmanship, but that doesn't mean they are lemmings.

    Edit: And welcome back, Richard T.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    kle4 said:

    They'll be fine. Not every seat of theirs is rock solid safe, but they don't seem particularly concerned. As Mr Meeks notes, they have taken it too far to back down (the same reason Tory backbenchers and labour rebels cannot back the deal either).


    I thought the complaint of Brexiteers was that the elite did not listen to the people. Now the people of NI - farmers - are speaking, the DUP are ignoring them. So much for concern for the people.
    The question is will they face consequences for not listening to these particular people. The answer appears to be no. Parties do it all the time of course, helped by tribalism to face no or limited consequences.
    I wouldn't read too much into this, seems to be a solo run by the UFU leadership, lots of DUP supporting farmers very angry about it.

    And as previously mentioned, if this truly reflected middle of the road Unionist thinking the UUP would be attacking from the left, not the right. In fact part of their poor performance in the 2016 Assembly Elections was due to backing remain under Mike Nesbitt.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,204
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty

    Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats

    Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited November 2018
    NickPalmer said:

    Big swing to Labour (rather than UKIP, though they gain too) in Opinium:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Labour is up two (and unchanged on 2017) and UKIP is up 2 with Opinium and UKIP is up 3 and Labour unchanged with Comres. There is only really a big swing to Labour because of Tory movement to UKIP and the swing is still not enough to give Corbyn a majority, though it would make him PM
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    It is a huge mistake looking at the next election through the prism of the last one. After the antisemitism debacle Corbyn is a busted flush
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,873
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    OT thanks for all the 'welcome backs' from everyone. I am afraid my return counts as something as a personal failure as, rather like smoking, I had come to consider PB as a vice I needed to give up.

    Unlike smoking I have been unable to maintain my resolve.

    Welcome back. At least PB doesn't give you lung cancer :)
    Although it may not be great for your blood pressure!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    And lose all this Tory strength, stability and competence? What a risk!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    The DUP would be letting down the U.K. which they profess to be so proud to be part of if they voted in favour of this shameful deal. They should stand their ground and vote against it. If they don’t, all their protestations about the backstop will just be so much hypocrisy. Voting in favour of this deal will only benefit Sinn Fein in both Assembly and Westminster elections.

    Nope, polling shows No Deal may see Northern Ireland vote for a United Ireland and Scotland vote for independence.

    It is No Deal that poses the greatest threat to the Union
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,786
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    OT thanks for all the 'welcome backs' from everyone. I am afraid my return counts as something as a personal failure as, rather like smoking, I had come to consider PB as a vice I needed to give up.

    Unlike smoking I have been unable to maintain my resolve.

    Excellent, we've missed you.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,204
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    OT thanks for all the 'welcome backs' from everyone. I am afraid my return counts as something as a personal failure as, rather like smoking, I had come to consider PB as a vice I needed to give up.

    Unlike smoking I have been unable to maintain my resolve.

    Good for you on smoking. I stopped 15 years ago when my first grandchild was born and have since developed mild copd. My practice nurse said that decision has saved my life
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
    No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal too although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty

    Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats

    Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
    Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
    No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
    No Brexit is better than No Deal.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    They will shrug this off the way Boris Johnson shrugged off business. They’re too deep in now to backtrack.

    I'm not so sure. They are good at brinkmanship, but that doesn't mean they are lemmings.
    They’re safe enough in most rural seats. Brexit is more problematic for them in seats like Belfast South with a big middle class.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    If only Ireland hadn't been partitioned!

    Blame Craig. And Griffiths.

    If Ireland had not been partitioned it would have had a Civil War way beyond the one brought about by disagreement over the Treaty.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    edited November 2018
    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
    Who needs polling? Such is the Power of Prediction in these uncertain times.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    TudorRose said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty

    Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats

    Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
    Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
    Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    47% of the Country want TM to do brexit

    The polls just now will be all over the place and for some time to come

    The good news is that by mid December the votes will have take place and the matter may well be clearer though not the political turmoil

    'When asked if there should be a public vote (a second referendum) if parliament votes down May’s proposed deal, 49% think there should be, while 38% do not.'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    If only Ireland hadn't been partitioned!

    Blame Craig. And Griffiths.

    If Ireland had not been partitioned it would have had a Civil War way beyond the one brought about by disagreement over the Treaty.
    If Ireland had not been partitioned, no backstop would be required in 2019.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,907
    edited November 2018
    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    If only Ireland hadn't been partitioned!

    Blame Craig. And Griffiths.

    You're learning :smile:

    Edit - but you're still forgetting Collins.
    I know! He must have been real pissed to have been left all alone in the Command Module above the lunar surface in 1969!
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Off topic but a rare piece of good unifying news. This year's Children in Need broke the ' on the night ' record and has also now broken the £1bn barrier since it started in 1980. Adjusted for inflation it would be far more.

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/nov/17/bbc-children-in-need-50m-raised-in-one-night?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Surviving a vote of no confidence doesn't really make her safe of course. It prevents an actual formal challenge, but the party can make things impossible if she truly would insist in leaving them further.

    Yes a snap GE not far from now is a risk, but one thing at a time, and the first step is resolving the Brexit divide in the party via theproxy of a vote of no confidence. If she survives she'll still see her deal fail, but the onus will be on whether the no dealers will then accept trying for a new deal under a new leader since I don't care how stubborn she is, if her deal goes down she has no purpose left.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited November 2018
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
    No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal too although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
    No Deal is absolutely not better than May's Deal and if staying in the EU is better than No Deal then that is what pigheaded Brexiteers will ultimately end up with, they will have reversed the Brexit vote in a little over 2 years through their complete inability to compromise and we will almost certainly never try to leave the EU again
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal too although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.

    You are saying that staying in the EU is a route to leaving the EU? That may be the most out-there Brexiteer sentiment I have ever seen expressed.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    matt said:

    TudorRose said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty

    Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats

    Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
    Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
    Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
    I've never forgiven him for Northern Rock. Risking other peoples' financial security to further your own career.... No wonder he thinks he understands politicians.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
    No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
    No Brexit is better than No Deal.
    Depends on the timescale and your willingness to ignore the votes of 17.4m people.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,172
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty

    Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats

    Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
    I think it fair to expect that a GE following the collapse of of May's government in a Tory Civil War is unlikely to result seat gains.

    I don't think Jezza has been fatally damaged by the anti-semitism stories, they have just reinforced existing opinions, whether he is a demon, or a victim of smears depending on side.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,258
    edited November 2018
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    If only Ireland hadn't been partitioned!

    Blame Craig. And Griffiths.

    You're learning :smile:

    Edit - but you're still forgetting Collins.
    I know! He must have been real pissed to have been left all alone in the Command Module above the lunar surface in 1969!
    Is that why he went in for Armstrong tactics? He clearly got a Buzz from them...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
    No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
    No Brexit is better than No Deal.
    Depends on the timescale and your willingness to ignore the votes of 17.4m people.
    It's plenty of Brexiteers who seem to be saying no brexit is better than a bad brexit (such is the logical conclusion to saying this brexit is worse than what we have now), so why do you assume plenty of other brexiters might think no brexit is better than no deal?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited November 2018
    kle4 said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Surviving a vote of no confidence doesn't really make her safe of course. It prevents an actual formal challenge, but the party can make things impossible if she truly would insist in leaving them further.

    Yes a snap GE not far from now is a risk, but one thing at a time, and the first step is resolving the Brexit divide in the party via theproxy of a vote of no confidence. If she survives she'll still see her deal fail, but the onus will be on whether the no dealers will then accept trying for a new deal under a new leader since I don't care how stubborn she is, if her deal goes down she has no purpose left.
    If her deal goes down she then has no reason not to go for EUref2 and Remain v No Deal and leave them to scrap it out while she plays the stateswoman. If the ERG want to topple her anyway an EUref2 win for Remain may then be the only way to shut them up
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    Ireland beat New Zealand for the first time on home soil
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    ydoethur said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    If only Ireland hadn't been partitioned!

    Blame Craig. And Griffiths.

    You're learning :smile:

    Edit - but you're still forgetting Collins.
    I blame Adrian.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    HYUFD said:

    Ireland beat New Zealand for the first time on home soil

    Just look at what a united Ireland can do!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,809
    Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.

    Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Now that’s a hard Irish backstop.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    AmpfieldAndy said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    HYUFD said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    No, vote down May's Deal and go to No Deal and a Corbyn government becomes a certainty or else Brexit is cancelled altogether in EUref2
    No deal is better than May’s deal as John Redwood eloquently articulated earlier today and staying in the EU is actually better than no deal although it will create huge pressure on the Gov of the day to leave.
    No Brexit is better than No Deal.
    Depends on the timescale and your willingness to ignore the votes of 17.4m people.
    Remain 55% No Deal 45% according to YouGov, No Deal loses Leave its majority losing the waverers while just keeping the Brexit diehards and the 45% matches exactly the 45% pro independence diehards who voted Yes for Scottish independence in 2014

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/yougov-poll-voters-would-rather-remain-in-eu-than-accept-a-no-deal-brexit-2018-7
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,759
    https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1063896774925053953
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    edited November 2018
    matt said:

    TudorRose said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty

    Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats

    Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
    Actually, if May gets her deal through Parliament (and I have a sneaking feeling she will eventually) one of the more entertaining consequences will be playing back all the pundits who have confidently asserted that she won't. Starting with Peston...
    Peston’s never weaker than when he’s relying on his own views. I’m hugely impressed by his progress given his reputation was built on being little more than the mouthpiece for Brown and Balls.
    He is wrong more often than Rogerdamus....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    If only Ireland hadn't been partitioned!

    Blame Craig. And Griffiths.

    If Ireland had not been partitioned it would have had a Civil War way beyond the one brought about by disagreement over the Treaty.
    If Ireland had not been partitioned, no backstop would be required in 2019.
    Northern Ireland would likely have been created by UDI or after a post civil war peace treaty anyway
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,204
    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty

    Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats

    Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
    I think it fair to expect that a GE following the collapse of of May's government in a Tory Civil War is unlikely to result seat gains.

    I don't think Jezza has been fatally damaged by the anti-semitism stories, they have just reinforced existing opinions, whether he is a demon, or a victim of smears depending on side.
    Why is the labour leader not miles ahead in public perception and trust. The reason is the leader is Corbyn. Starmer would be walking labour into office right now
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited November 2018
    MikeSmithson said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    It is a huge mistake looking at the next election through the prism of the last one. After the antisemitism debacle Corbyn is a busted flush

    I would normally agree with your first sentence but May has nothing to offer the electorate in terms of either campaigning skills or policy proposition except a Brexit policy that lacks any merit. Labour’s problems with Antisemitism regrettably seems not to shift the polls terribly much. I don’t think fear of a no deal or fear of a Labour Gov is a good reason to sign up to such an atrocious deal and if you are prepared to go along with May’s deal, there is no reason to ditch her as leader before the next election. Who wants to vote for her in the next election ? I wont and I’ve voted Tory all my life.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited November 2018
    IanB2 said:

    Just published by the DT: Senior Conservatives are in talks with opposition MPs over a "fallback plan" for Brexit in the belief Theresa May's deal will be voted down in the Commons.

    Influential former ministers are drawing up plans to put a Norway-style deal with the EU to a Commons vote in an emergency motion days after an expected defeat in the "meaningful vote" on her plan.

    And the ERG and DUP and Corbynites will vote that down too, it is also a worse deal than May's as it requires free movement
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,043
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    I think the question of 'pension rights' that JJ is posing is misleading. If I earn monies in Norway then under reciprocal taxation agreements any tax taken in Norway counts against my tax liabilities in the UK. In the case of Norway this means I effectively pay no income tax in the UK because the Norwegian taxes are so punitive. But the Norwegians are not able to ring fence certain aspects of my earnings (such as pensions) and tell the UK they are not allowed to tax them. If we are outside the EU then the EU should not be able to dictate what our tax policy is. Any income should be liable for consideration under UK tax law just as it is if I earn monies working in another country or if I earn my money entirely within this country.

    I'm not sure I was posing a question, and I think that what you're saying is fair enough.

    However, that was the arrangement they got the pensions under, by agreement. It seems slightly churlish to be telling someone that their pension is going to be reduced - then again, I find pensions confusing at the best of times, and am sort of allergic to governments messing about with them.

    And I reckon there are lots of other odd arrangements like this between governments, and not just wrt pensions.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/anguswalkertalk/status/1063896774925053953

    Those crafty, lying EU leaders who also love to make better deals with the UK because...because...because of course they do, once PM Corbyn/Raab asks.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,534
    HYUFD said:

    Ireland beat New Zealand for the first time on home soil

    Incredible game...Was chalk and cheese to England earlier. Powerful fast running, hitting the line at speed, massive tackles and incredible discipline under pressure.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,243
    Re Mrs May's survivability and that of her deal.
    (from an earlier thread)
    geoffw said:

    James Forsythe says there is only one way for Mrs May to break the link between how she has handled Brexit so far and the issue of what Parliament should do now.

    "She [May] should say that as soon as the withdrawal legislation is through the Commons, she will stand down as Prime Minister. This would enable MPs to vote for the deal without that being an endorsement of her handling of Brexit or an invitation for her to negotiate the next stage of Brexit, the UK/EU trade deal."
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/7762268/pm-should-stand-down-after-brexit-james-forsyth/

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Foxy said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AmpfieldAndy said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Should May prevail in a leadership contest, then the Tories have no chance of getting rid of her in order to restore their working parliamentary majority with the support of the DUP. A lost vote of no confidence in parliament then looms.

    Those Tory MPs intending to vote for her in the forthcoming leadership ballot should ask themselves whether they are up for an unplanned general election when they are down to 36% in the latest poll.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/17/labour-gains-lead-over-tories-opinion-poll

    Get rid of Theresa risk Corbyn as PM
    I should have thought the opposite was the case based upon the last General Election, the reaction to Chequers and the total lack of any domestic policy agenda. Stick with May and a Corbyn Gov becomes a racing certainty.
    Nothing, absolutely nothing, is a racing certainty

    Last weeks Scots poll showed labour down from 7 to 1 seat in Scotland and falls in conservative seats

    Anyone who says they know the results of the next GE are either making a partisan statement or more likely whistling in the wind
    I think it fair to expect that a GE following the collapse of of May's government in a Tory Civil War is unlikely to result seat gains.

    I don't think Jezza has been fatally damaged by the anti-semitism stories, they have just reinforced existing opinions, whether he is a demon, or a victim of smears depending on side.
    Why is the labour leader not miles ahead in public perception and trust. The reason is the leader is Corbyn. Starmer would be walking labour into office right now
    Well, they would need to kick out the agitators and anti semites as well
This discussion has been closed.

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