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TMICIPM

Fourth and falling fast, like Boris.

RTMHBB

houndtang said:

MarqueeMark said:

TMICIPM

What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages

Theresa May Is Crap Is Prime Minister

It's a PB throwback to Ed Miliband

#ThrowbackFriday

SquareRoot said:

Deselect the ERG MP's

If they get what they want, a Hard Brexit, then I should imagine their prospects at the next GE could be diminished by tactical voting and opposition parties coming to informal agreements!

The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

JosiasJessop said:

The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

Quite, they claim to be patriots but are in fact the enemy within.

Off topic.

Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

JosiasJessop said:

The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

I don't even think the lack of a leader figure is necessarily the biggest problem. Picking a suitably hard brexity candidate by lot is hardly very sound, but it would work if it were the case that once May goes there will be agreement on a direction. But of course that's a load of piffle, yet these plans for 'negotiate a new deal' require the party to settle on a new strategy, very quickly, then start putting it into practice. And given the remain ultras in the party and the ones who are vocally against the ERG crowd, then even if we assume a good chunk are loyalists who will vote with the party line on this, whatever it may be, there is no hope that a change in strategy gets any easier under a new leader. Certainly not in the time available.

There have to be plenty of MPs who recognise May has done a poor job and want her gone, and would even accept pretty much anyone in the post, but the key question is would it actually improve the party position? The DUP can presumably be brought back on side relatively easily, but the Tory splits not so much and so some number of Labour MPs become necessary again.

Cyclefree said:

One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

I'd say you have to have 15 years experience outside politics before you can be a candidate. Home maker/carer counts, SPAD adds another 15 years on......

trawl said:

Off topic.

Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527

kle4 said:

trawl said:

Off topic.

Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527

The BBC reported yesterday that evidence was given that both her mobile phones were in the vicinity of the car's location at the time of the incident.

Cyclefree said:

One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

Sadly, I think Bridgen is pretty safe in NW Leics, as it is far from the marginal it was due to new housing. I may well do a bit for the opposition there next election though.

SquareRoot said:

JosiasJessop said:

The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

Quite, they claim to be patriots but are in fact the enemy within.

Don’t agree that leavers are the enemy within. But on Josias’s point what I don’t get is how exactly a change of leadership now and I stress now would change the fundamentals. You mention Boris so to take him as an example. Were he somehow PM on Monday what evidence is there that he would, say, be offered a better deal by the EU27, or command a larger number of votes than May on the EU issue in the HOC?

Cyclefree said:

One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

What do you expect? Far too many of them are lawyers ...

trawl said:

SquareRoot said:

JosiasJessop said:

The Brexiteers have a major problem: if they oust her, they don't have a credible leader figure who could command loyalty within the party. Their 'big beasts' (and they are only big in their own minds) such as Davis or Boris are total busted flushes.

Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.

Quite, they claim to be patriots but are in fact the enemy within.

Don’t agree that leavers are the enemy within. But on Josias’s point what I don’t get is how exactly a change of leadership now and I stress now would change the fundamentals. You mention Boris so to take him as an example. Were he somehow PM on Monday what evidence is there that he would, say, be offered a better deal by the EU27, or command a larger number of votes than May on the EU issue in the HOC?

Listen to them , just listen to them..

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

trawl said:

Off topic.

Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527

The BBC reported yesterday that evidence was given that both her mobile phones were in the vicinity of the car's location at the time of the incident.

Yes well the the Mail reports a last minute witness turned up to say she visited him alone in the relevant car late on the evening in question. Anyway we’ll see may be she’s got an explanation.

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Cyclefree said:

One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

I'd say you have to have 15 years experience outside politics before you can be a candidate. Home maker/carer counts, SPAD adds another 15 years on......

Ah, but that's ageist you see.

A quick glance at wiki says Italy has the highest age limit for a position in the world - 50 years old at least to be President.

I am surprised to learn we do have a different age limit to be a Lord vs an MP.

I do stand by saying that there must be a gap of many years between someone being an MP and a Peer though. Doesn't address the wider mediocrity problem admittedly.

There have always been a fair number of dullards, loonies and party hacks in Parliament.

Its just that they get far more capability to show what dickheads they are now thanks to twitter.

shiney2 said:

trawl said:

Off topic.

Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

Quite possibly. Her brother (co defendent I believe) went for 'guilty. m'lud', presumably to minimise likely punishment. Perhaps she plans to use the 'do you know who i am' defence..

I suppose given most would expect an MP to resign no matter the sentence even though it is not required unless it is over 12 months in prison, that it is always worth taking the chance. The prosecutors might do a bad job or some procedural error might save you (and yes, maybe she is innocent, for the sake of argument).

JosiasJessop said:

trawl said:

Off topic.

Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

It was mentioned earlier:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527

It'll be interesting to watch how this case turns out. If there is a by-election, I hope Stewart Jackson doesn't stand ...

If these allegations are true, she is an idiot who doesn't deserve to be a lawyer or an MP.

What absolute moron would risk personal, professional and financial ruin for the sake of avoiding at worst a small fine and a month's driving ban by telling such an easily proved lie?

The Daily May
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1063545591815385089?s=21

kle4 said:

shiney2 said:

trawl said:

Off topic.

Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

Quite possibly. Her brother (co defendent I believe) went for 'guilty. m'lud', presumably to minimise likely punishment. Perhaps she plans to use the 'do you know who i am' defence..

I suppose given most would expect an MP to resign no matter the sentence even though it is not required unless it is over 12 months in prison, that it is always worth taking the chance. The prosecutors might do a bad job or some procedural error might save you (and yes, maybe she is innocent, for the sake of argument).

I understand courts like to award discounts to those who accept guilt at an early point in the proceedings. And the converse, of course.

Obviously, respected Parliamentarians will be treated as special cases.

Bill of Attainder perhaps.

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

Morons. But that’s not a surprise is it? The way we treat our politicians you’d have to be mad or stupid to do the job. Especially when you can achieve more for the world outside politics.

It's chicken and egg, though isn't it. Perhaps we treat them badly because they behave so badly.

How hard is it to think before speaking? Or texting? I mean, I don't want to get all nostalgic but it used to be a mark of an adult that they usually understood that you thought first and then opened your mouth. Or wrote things down. It's not hard. They're not babies, after all.

If MPs want respect they need to earn it.

Can’t help feeling the tide turned a bit for May today. Yesterday was very rough but her enemies overshot and she proved dogged. Today her Cabinet rallied around somewhat and the 48 didn’t materialise. .The options other than her deal looked less likely and less palatable. A long way to go yet but she just might be past the worst.

Cyclefree said:

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

Morons. But that’s not a surprise is it? The way we treat our politicians you’d have to be mad or stupid to do the job. Especially when you can achieve more for the world outside politics.

It's chicken and egg, though isn't it. Perhaps we treat them badly because they behave so badly.

How hard is it to think before speaking? Or texting? I mean, I don't want to get all nostalgic but it used to be a mark of an adult that they usually understood that you thought first and then opened your mouth. Or wrote things down. It's not hard. They're not babies, after all.

If MPs want respect they need to earn it.

There are plenty of decent ones too, some in each party, but being sane and diligent doesnt make for a high media profile.

DavidL said:

Can’t help feeling the tide turned a bit for May today. Yesterday was very rough but her enemies overshot and she proved dogged. Today her Cabinet rallied around somewhat and the 48 didn’t materialise. .The options other than her deal looked less likely and less palatable. A long way to go yet but she just might be past the worst.

I won't be the first person to reflect the 'tide turning' metaphor has always been a bit flawed, in that it will just turn yet again as that is what it does, so you had better be able to get further away next time.

Personally I think May was able to stretch her head above the waves this time and the fever pitch of the attacks had to lessen intensity as that could not be sustained, but in doing so she has dropped down a few inches and when the tide returns next time?

justin124 said:

kle4 said:

shiney2 said:

trawl said:

Off topic.

Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

Quite possibly. Her brother (co defendent I believe) went for 'guilty. m'lud', presumably to minimise likely punishment. Perhaps she plans to use the 'do you know who i am' defence..

I suppose given most would expect an MP to resign no matter the sentence even though it is not required unless it is over 12 months in prison, that it is always worth taking the chance. The prosecutors might do a bad job or some procedural error might save you (and yes, maybe she is innocent, for the sake of argument).

Gerald Nabarro did not resign when convicted in the early 1970s. He claimed that his secretary was driving but the jury did not believe him.

That was a long time ago. I would be interested to see an MP plead guilty to perverting the course of justice and standing their ground, which they would be entitled to do depending on the sentence.

IanB2 said:

Guido just tweeted they say they have 48 definites now

Guido just tweeted that Steve Baker said they have 48 definite and probably 60 in total.

Let's wait to hear from Graham Brady, if we ever do.

GIN1138 said:

houndtang said:

MarqueeMark said:

TMICIPM

What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages

Theresa May Is Crap Is Prime Minister

It's a PB throwback to Ed Miliband

#ThrowbackFriday

Surely #KickcanFriday

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.

Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.

Being blunt, I do not see how any government could deliver a Brexit that loads of people would always have disliked (starting with a very large chunk of remainers, and then a variable amount of leavers who don't like the final shape of things), and come out on top at the end of it. I think their having any poll leads this far in is remarkable. Perhaps this deal, if approved, will make the job even harder than it already was, but I would have said that a government in power, in various forms, for 12 years overseeing years of austerity and a massive, divisive and impactful policy like Brexit, would always have struggled to be re-elected. It's best bet would have been to get something through, then have several years to try to rebuild trust and support in 2022.

But with the DUP likely to retaliate if the deal goes through - making life impossible even if they say they won't bring down the government officially - and the party in even more shambles if they cannot get a deal through, I think an early election and a Tory loss is close to inevitable at this point.

Which is a shame for them, but if they believe no deal is something which must be avoided, they will have to take that hit for the nation.

Cyclefree said:

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

One thing we have learnt is how utterly thick a lot of our MPs are, across all parties. I wouldn't hire them to make tea let alone anything more difficult. Look at Andrew Bridgen: a moron and arrogant with it. A great puffball of wind.

Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.

The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.

Morons. But that’s not a surprise is it? The way we treat our politicians you’d have to be mad or stupid to do the job. Especially when you can achieve more for the world outside politics.

It's chicken and egg, though isn't it. Perhaps we treat them badly because they behave so badly.

How hard is it to think before speaking? Or texting? I mean, I don't want to get all nostalgic but it used to be a mark of an adult that they usually understood that you thought first and then opened your mouth. Or wrote things down. It's not hard. They're not babies, after all.

If MPs want respect they need to earn it.

Chicken and Egg, but perhaps more one than the other. I would have done it, I probably could still do it. I certainly have the interest. But I found more good can be achieved working outside politics than in it. And what’s more you can do it and have a private life. Fewer church halls. More weekends.

To do it you have to be single minded and prepared to tolerate the most extreme cliques and boredom.

Nemtynakht said:

On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?

Someone earlier was tweeting that a bunch of people were waiting until Monday to send in their letters, for whatever point that is supposed to have, but even if he has 48 now I would think he would wait until Monday to annouce.

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

trawl said:

Off topic.

Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527

The BBC reported yesterday that evidence was given that both her mobile phones were in the vicinity of the car's location at the time of the incident.

As a solicitor, she will get a top-end tariff if guilty.

kle4 said:

DavidL said:

Can’t help feeling the tide turned a bit for May today. Yesterday was very rough but her enemies overshot and she proved dogged. Today her Cabinet rallied around somewhat and the 48 didn’t materialise. .The options other than her deal looked less likely and less palatable. A long way to go yet but she just might be past the worst.

I won't be the first person to reflect the 'tide turning' metaphor has always been a bit flawed, in that it will just turn yet again as that is what it does, so you had better be able to get further away next time.

Personally I think May was able to stretch her head above the waves this time and the fever pitch of the attacks had to lessen intensity as that could not be sustained, but in doing so she has dropped down a few inches and when the tide returns next time?

Tides come in and out right enough and further crisis points are inevitable but I personally think that the last 2 days have left her higher up the beach than she was before. There are only so many cabinet ministers who can resign, most are now in for the long haul, threats of letters are going to be met with derisive laughter and the alternatives are being questioned.

She is a long way from a majority in the Commons, that is the biggest problem but she looks stronger.

AmpfieldAndy said:

kle4 said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.

Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.

Being blunt, I do not see how any government could deliver a Brexit that loads of people would always have disliked (starting with a very large chunk of remainers, and then a variable amount of leavers who don't like the final shape of things), and come out on top at the end of it. I think their having any poll leads this far in is remarkable. Perhaps this deal, if approved, will make the job even harder than it already was, but I would have said that a government in power, in various forms, for 12 years overseeing years of austerity and a massive, divisive and impactful policy like Brexit, would always have struggled to be re-elected. It's best bet would have been to get something through, then have several years to try to rebuild trust and support in 2022.

But with the DUP likely to retaliate if the deal goes through - making life impossible even if they say they won't bring down the government officially - and the party in even more shambles if they cannot get a deal through, I think an early election and a Tory loss is close to inevitable at this point.

Which is a shame for them, but if they believe no deal is something which must be avoided, they will have to take that hit for the nation.

Don’t think you’re adding anything with all this.

Are any of us? You seem concerned the present shambles will make things very difficult for the Conservative and Unionist Party in a future election, and I put forth an opinion on that topic. I wasn't expecting to solve the issue or anything.

Charles said:

kle4 said:

trawl said:

Off topic.

Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?

How dare you talk about anything other than Brexit?!

Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.

The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.

She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.

The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527

Lying to the police/courts strikes me as serious not silly

Of course it is serious. The silliness is why she would make that choice in the first place, if guilty, when it was such a minor thing in the first place. I should have been clearer - silly thing she was accused of avoiding.

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.

Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.

Possibly but I think things are very fluid at the moment and we have to remember Corbyn and McDonell. A decent centre-left Labour leadership would be well ahead in the polls and clear favourites. Current LP leadership makes outcome of next election very uncertain despite current Tory travails. The other thing to bear in mind is that Labour are soon to be on the spot themselves over Brexit. Their apparent current position(s) are laughable. If Corbyn and McDonell follow their Brexit inclinations or prioritise destabilising government to force an election they may lose the strongly pro-EU younger voters that swung behind them in unlikely to be repeated Corbyn mania.

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.

Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.

Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.

He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.

But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.

Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.

The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

IanB2 said:

dodrade said:

houndtang said:

MarqueeMark said:

TMICIPM

What does the ICI bit mean?? Has baffled me for ages

Is crap is?

You'd hope the standard of debate here wouldn't sink to that.

It’s an in joke rather than a serious debating point

A bit like ROTFWMTITA

(Rolling on the floor with my trotters in the air)

You know Charles, I try never to make puns on your surname for a number of reasons - a respect for your wish not to use it on this forum, good manners, an understanding that it isn't (contrary to Patrick O'Brian) fair to pun in someone's name. I think I've broken that resolution once, when retelling a story about a distant cousin of yours.

But when you put forward acronyms with 'tit' in them, you tempt me sorely.

It is important that we keep a breast of good puns, in mammary of times past.

Stop trying to milk the reference. It sucks.

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.

Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.

Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

but do people really see Corbyn that way? I dunno.
it might be the people that worry about him are an intellectual minority.

By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.

JohnO said:

By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.

Which is why only somebody with the intellect of a squashed hedgehog would precipitate one now.

Unfortunately the ERG don't even meet that criteria.

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.

Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.

Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.

He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.

But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.

Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.

The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.

He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.

And he still lost.

Which is true. But he got 40%. That has won before. Think we are in uncharted waters speculating on the next GE.

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

ydoethur said:

AmpfieldAndy said:

Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.

Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.

That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.

Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.

Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.

He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.

I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.

He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.

But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.

Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.

The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.

He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.

And he still lost.

Indeed - but it was an election which nobody won.

It is just as well for the Conservative party that Stanley Baldwin didn't listen to people who gave him advice like this in 1929.