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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At one point this morning punters made it a 55% chance that TM
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At one point this morning punters made it a 55% chance that TMay would be out this year
When you get dramatic political days like today it is interesting for gamblers to look back and see how betting prices have moved as events have unfolded. The chart above shows the last 24 hours on the “which year will Mrs May leave” betting market on Betfair. The odds are shown as percentages.
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It's a PB throwback to Ed Miliband
#ThrowbackFriday
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1063348828634562560
Well, I won't make the same mistake I made last time. Shame it is not up to me though.
Essentially, TM may well remain in place because the people opposing her are shit. And shits.
Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.
The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class.
Sorry if already mentioned - I’ve been busy all day - but the report in the Mail on the Onasanya trial says that it took an unexpected turn today. By-election coming up?
There have to be plenty of MPs who recognise May has done a poor job and want her gone, and would even accept pretty much anyone in the post, but the key question is would it actually improve the party position? The DUP can presumably be brought back on side relatively easily, but the Tory splits not so much and so some number of Labour MPs become necessary again.
Or Raab - like a frightened rabbit in front of a Select Committee. Or David Davis: breezily talking nonsense.
The utter mediocrity of most of them is so depressing. Mediocrity coupled with arrogance and self-importance and lacking judgment, experience or empathy. And that's before we get onto the utter shits. That's our political class."
I'm re-posting this from the previous thread from Cyclefree. One of the best posts I've read here for a long, long time....
Looks like a very silly thing she is accused of. BBC write up needs a bit of polish though.
The court has heard Ms Onasanya was sent a Notice of Intended Prosecution (NIP) after her car was clocked in Thorney, near Peterborough, at 22:03 BST on 24 July.
She returned the paperwork naming the driver as Aleks Antipow, a previous tenant of a property the siblings rented out in Cambridge.
The jury heard he was in Russia at the time of the incident had had never driven the MP's car.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-46236527
It'll be interesting to watch how this case turns out. If there is a by-election, I hope Stewart Jackson doesn't stand ...
A quick glance at wiki says Italy has the highest age limit for a position in the world - 50 years old at least to be President.
I am surprised to learn we do have a different age limit to be a Lord vs an MP.
I do stand by saying that there must be a gap of many years between someone being an MP and a Peer though. Doesn't address the wider mediocrity problem admittedly.
Let us not forget the EU heads will be facing their own criticisms that they were too generous, remarkable as they seems to us, the same happened with Cameron's negotiation, and while that irritated many, including me (since it demonstrated that they were not serious about reform since they appear to offer little then moan it is too much - though admittedly I would take it now, mea culpa), it is something they have to deal with, and offering more to us seems unlikely to fly. Labour at least, while stile implausible, might offer something significant in favour of the EU to gain something else. Boris and co wouldn't as they think we've gone too far already.
Its just that they get far more capability to show what dickheads they are now thanks to twitter.
At least a lawyer would understand that having an independent arbitration system as proposed by the EU is a sensible way of resolving an issue. But, no, the JRMs and IDSs seem to think that one party should, having entered into an agreement, be able to withdraw unilaterally without any consequences. No intelligent lawyer would come out with such garbage. An intelligent MP who really cared about Britain would understand that our traditional respect for the rule of law has been one of Britain's strengths and that wittering about ignoring laws is damaging that USP. And they dare call themselves patriots.
What absolute moron would risk personal, professional and financial ruin for the sake of avoiding at worst a small fine and a month's driving ban by telling such an easily proved lie?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1063545591815385089?s=21
But sometimes they really do not help themselves.
Obviously, respected Parliamentarians will be treated as special cases.
Bill of Attainder perhaps.
And which 'big guns' are rallying behind her? I don't watch much telly but I've not heard much about what Javid, Hunt and Hammond are up to.
How hard is it to think before speaking? Or texting? I mean, I don't want to get all nostalgic but it used to be a mark of an adult that they usually understood that you thought first and then opened your mouth. Or wrote things down. It's not hard. They're not babies, after all.
If MPs want respect they need to earn it.
Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.
Personally I think May was able to stretch her head above the waves this time and the fever pitch of the attacks had to lessen intensity as that could not be sustained, but in doing so she has dropped down a few inches and when the tide returns next time?
Let's wait to hear from Graham Brady, if we ever do.
May will survive the VONC though.
He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.
But with the DUP likely to retaliate if the deal goes through - making life impossible even if they say they won't bring down the government officially - and the party in even more shambles if they cannot get a deal through, I think an early election and a Tory loss is close to inevitable at this point.
Which is a shame for them, but if they believe no deal is something which must be avoided, they will have to take that hit for the nation.
A bit like ROTFWMTITA
(Rolling on the floor with my trotters in the air)
To do it you have to be single minded and prepared to tolerate the most extreme cliques and boredom.
She was a great public servant who was good at it. Chased out of service by a lying boss, crazed media and pot-shotting politicians with no interest in the truth
A real loss to the country. But no way back.
But when you put forward acronyms with 'tit' in them, you tempt me sorely.
She is a long way from a majority in the Commons, that is the biggest problem but she looks stronger.
'On the night of 21 May 1971, Nabarro's car NAB 1 was seen to swerve at speed the wrong way round a roundabout at Totton, Hampshire. It was occupied by Nabarro and his company secretary, Margaret Mason. The police charged him as the driver, but Nabarro insisted it was his secretary, who agreed with his story. He was found guilty by a jury at Winchester Crown Court; the judge pronounced his behaviour "outrageous" and fined him £250. He announced his appeal on the court steps immediately afterwards, accompanied by his private secretary Christine Holman. He suffered two strokes in the following year and was cleared in the second trial. Many commentators of the time believed that the jury had brought in their verdict to spare Nabarro the horrors of a perjury trial.
A few months later, having recently announced a decision to retire from the Commons on grounds of health, he died at his home, Orchard House, in Broadway, Worcestershire on 18 November 1973.']
I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
it might be the people that worry about him are an intellectual minority.
Unfortunately the ERG don't even meet that criteria.