By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.
And that is the stupity of ERG but then they are world champions at that.
Indeed they keep her in place for most of 2019
I am loyal to her but expect may june next year for a leadership contest.
That could not happen under these cretins plotting
So many left wing, university educated mid 20s types in my peer group in the north east of England who were massive Corbyn fans now want a change of leader, purely due to Brexit.
So many left wing, university educated mid 20s types in my peer group in the north east of England who were massive Corbyn fans now want a change of leader, purely due to Brexit.
Truly? Would be an interesting development. What if he came around to a second referendum, would they be back to his side quickly?
Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.
Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.
That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.
He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.
I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.
The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
And he still lost.
Which is true. But he got 40%. That has won before. Think we are in uncharted waters speculating on the next GE.
No one has a clue re the next election. Those calling it for labour are labour loyalists
One thing that is often a feature of Govt is that Cabinets are rarely made up of the most able, but rather those with a power base within their parliamentary parties. The corollary though, is that sometimes, if given a free hand because those with a power base refuse to serve, Prime ministers can occasionally be in a position of being able to appoint ministers of genuine ability. Maybe this is just such an occasion, for all the jibes about how some of the appointments are “unknown”. Just a shame Grayling has no power base...
Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.
Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.
That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.
He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.
I have nofter all this.
He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.
The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
And he still lost.
Which is true. But he got 40%. That has won before. Think we are in uncharted waters speculating on the next GE.
No one has a clue re the next election. Those calling it for labour are labour loyalists
And me. I tend to presume an optimistic scenario for them for some reason, a compensatory reaction to living in the true blue shires perhaps. Though even I underestimated them last time.
Talking of moronic politicians there was some no mark called Fish on R5 whilst I was driving home tonight. I can only hope he has someone to make sure he is properly dressed in the morning. His understanding of the things he was so enraged about was pitiful and his alternatives completely incoherent.
It's Fysh actually with Marcus as its first name. Beat David Laws in Yeovil in 2015. Ghastly.
Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.
Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.
That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.
He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.
I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.
The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
And he still lost.
Which is true. But he got 40%. That has won before. Think we are in uncharted waters speculating on the next GE.
He did not get 40%. He got 39.99% nationwide, or 41% in constituencies where Labour fielded a candidate.
So many left wing, university educated mid 20s types in my peer group in the north east of England who were massive Corbyn fans now want a change of leader, purely due to Brexit.
Truly? Would be an interesting development. What if he came around to a second referendum, would they be back to his side quickly?
Probably but its hard to say for sure. Most or them have lost quite a bit of interest in the whole process because of it and say they might vote Green. I think in reality they’d still vote Labour or not vote at all when push comes to shove.
Obviously beware anecdotes. This is also all in safe Labour seats anyway.
Talking of moronic politicians there was some no mark called Fish on R5 whilst I was driving home tonight. I can only hope he has someone to make sure he is properly dressed in the morning. His understanding of the things he was so enraged about was pitiful and his alternatives completely incoherent.
That's true for 90% of the people I've heard in the last 48 hours or so, who don't seem to be able to distinguish between the transition period and a final deal with the EU.
By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.
Which is why only somebody with the intellect of a squashed hedgehog would precipitate one now.
Unfortunately the ERG don't even meet that criteria.
Agreed. They are absolute Muppets - and that's being kind. Talking to leaver relatives tonight, it is clear the ERG have really overplayed their hand....
Talking of moronic politicians there was some no mark called Fish on R5 whilst I was driving home tonight. I can only hope he has someone to make sure he is properly dressed in the morning. His understanding of the things he was so enraged about was pitiful and his alternatives completely incoherent.
It's Fysh actually with Marcus as its first name. Beat David Laws in Yeovil in 2015. Ghastly.
But what an opportunity for a fabulous pun about where did they drag him up from?
Anyone else a bit surprised no ERG member has threatened to trigger a by-election over Brexit? A bunch of them represent super-safe Tory strong leave seats with ERG-friendly local parties. If they ran as an independent they'd probably win, and they'd put much more pressure on the government than they've managed to so far.
I mean, they're even friends with David Davis. But the idea doesn't even seem to have crossed their minds (at least publicly).
By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.
Which is why only somebody with the intellect of a squashed hedgehog would precipitate one now.
Unfortunately the ERG don't even meet that criteria.
Agreed. They are absolute Muppets - and that's being kind. Talking to leaver relatives tonight, it is clear the ERG have really overplayed their hand....
It's not being kind. Kermit the Frog was on the line complaining, and I don't blame him. Miss Piggy is said to be in actual tears.
So many left wing, university educated mid 20s types in my peer group in the north east of England who were massive Corbyn fans now want a change of leader, purely due to Brexit.
Truly? Would be an interesting development. What if he came around to a second referendum, would they be back to his side quickly?
Probably but its hard to say for sure. Most or them have lost quite a bit of interest in the whole process because of it and say they might vote Green. I think in reality they’d still vote Labour or not vote at all when push comes to shove.
Obviously beware anecdotes. This is also all in safe Labour seats anyway.
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.
Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.
That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.
He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.
I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.
The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
And he still lost.
Which is true. But he got 40%. That has won before. Think we are in uncharted waters speculating on the next GE.
Well it is probably only a few months away now so we had best start speculating!
It seems somewhat dubious to me that Labour will win an election on the back of Conservative EU policy, when they have no credible EU policy themselves.
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
Well done to them - Labour, rebels or not, now have no reason to even contemplate backing the deal, because the Cabinet itself is calling May a liar about it being the only option on the table. Not that the chances of agreeing the deal were high anyway, but that has truly not helped.
And being serious, did they not raise this point when May presented it to Cabinet? Did they ask if she had forgotten to push for a unilateral withdrawal? Why would the EU agree to such a thing? It would quite obviously be something much more to our liking, so what do the gang of five wish to give up in exchange for that?
It seems somewhat dubious to me that Labour will win an election on the back of Conservative EU policy, when they have no credible EU policy themselves.
'We'd do a better deal/would have done a better deal or remained we swear' is not a compelling policy, but it's a question of how much the Tories get damaged by all this and if Labour can hang together long enough.
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
There's going to be an overall majority for Labour whenever the election is held, however Brexit turns out and whoever it leading Con.
They've betrayed Leaver's and just the concept of Brexit pisses off Remainers.
On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?
Someone earlier was tweeting that a bunch of people were waiting until Monday to send in their letters, for whatever point that is supposed to have, but even if he has 48 now I would think he would wait until Monday to annouce.
But if he had them this morning would it have been announced today? I feel the narrative changed today with people saying that the number had not been reached but I thought someone said yesterday that he might wait 48 hours to confirm.
Well done to them - Labour, rebels or not, now have no reason to even contemplate backing the deal, because the Cabinet itself is calling May a liar about it being the only option on the table. Not that the chances of agreeing the deal were high anyway, but that has truly not helped.
And being serious, did they not raise this point when May presented it to Cabinet? Did they ask if she had forgotten to push for a unilateral withdrawal? Why would the EU agree to such a thing? It would quite obviously be something much more to our liking, so what do the gang of five wish to give up in exchange for that?
Not to mention that “unilateral withdrawal” is about the only thing that the U.K. has the theoretical power to do, regardless of what is in any agreement...
What we would be unilaterally withdrawing from, however, is not so clear.
Well done to them - Labour, rebels or not, now have no reason to even contemplate backing the deal, because the Cabinet itself is calling May a liar about it being the only option on the table. Not that the chances of agreeing the deal were high anyway, but that has truly not helped.
And being serious, did they not raise this point when May presented it to Cabinet? Did they ask if she had forgotten to push for a unilateral withdrawal? Why would the EU agree to such a thing? It would quite obviously be something much more to our liking, so what do the gang of five wish to give up in exchange for that?
Not to mention that “unilateral withdrawal” is about the only thing that the U.K. has the theoretical power to do, regardless of what is in any agreement...
What we would be unilaterally withdrawing from, however, is not so clear.
We would unilaterally withdraw so we wouldn't be completely fucked?
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
Nah, but most seats is quite likely. A majority of 60 would require nearly a ton of gains.
Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.
Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.
That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.
He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.
I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.
The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
And he still lost.
Which is true. But he got 40%. That has won before. Think we are in uncharted waters speculating on the next GE.
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
If you have a third election is as many years then the Tory Party really needs to look in the mirror and understand "Why are we so crap." Times have changed and I would argue that no political party has embraced that change. They are all stuck in the past not acknowledging that the whole political landscape has changed. Just like they have still not understood the expenses scandal changed all.
Racing certainty that Corbyn will win the next election though after all this - a deal that is worse than staying in the EU and for which domestic policy has been entirely ignored; a bunch of clowns inside her party who couldn’t organise anything at all in a brewery as the only opposition, an alienated DUP who have been hung out to dry and £ 39 bn shelled out with future trade still to be negotiated.
Makes Chamberlain and Eden look quite competent.
That it isn't - contrary to your claim - a racing certainty or even especially likely that he'll win is the most damning indictment imaginable of his awful leadership and weird policy offerings.
Who is going to vote Tory after this shambles. The polls might currently say its level pegging but May lost a 20% lead to Corbyn in the last election campaign. This isn’t going to make life easier for her or the Tories.
Everyone who doesn't want to put a man who is an admirer of divers mass murderers into power.
He is a hospital pass for the ERG. They're stupid, he's malevolent and stupid.
I have no argument with you describing him as malevolent but he is far more electorally appealing than any Tory, especially May, as he showed in the last election. All the Tories will have to offer at the next election is a shambolic Brexit or non Brexit and the diatribe that the alternative to them is Corbyn. Didn’t work last time and I don’t see it working next time - especially after all this.
He was not more electorally appealing than the Tories last time. That's why he lost.
But he achieved a very substantial swing in his direction in the course of the campaign.
Again, he rallied a lot of votes behind him. He persuaded very few switchers.
The much larger risk for the Tories is that their supporters are less motivated to vote. As I have said previously, I think differential turnout will be the decisive factor next time.
He achieved a much higher vote share than Gordon Brown in 2010 , than Tony Blair in 2005 , and than Harold Wilson at both 1974 elections.
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
Nah, but most seats is quite likely. A majority of 60 would require nearly a ton of gains.
Clearly we're just being hypothetical at present, but why on earth shouldn't an opposition secure a ton of gains if their opponents implode so spectacularly. 1906? 1931? 1983? 1997?
On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?
Someone earlier was tweeting that a bunch of people were waiting until Monday to send in their letters, for whatever point that is supposed to have, but even if he has 48 now I would think he would wait until Monday to annouce.
But if he had them this morning would it have been announced today? I feel the narrative changed today with people saying that the number had not been reached but I thought someone said yesterday that he might wait 48 hours to confirm.
The truth is no-one knows. The last time the threshold was reached (IDS in 2003) there was a different head of the 1922 Committee, and Graham Brady has been deliberately tight-lipped about his personal interpretations of the rules where they aren't specific.
On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?
Someone earlier was tweeting that a bunch of people were waiting until Monday to send in their letters, for whatever point that is supposed to have, but even if he has 48 now I would think he would wait until Monday to annouce.
But if he had them this morning would it have been announced today? I feel the narrative changed today with people saying that the number had not been reached but I thought someone said yesterday that he might wait 48 hours to confirm.
I reckon he will take 48 hours - excluding the weekend - to announce. Not that the delay will do any good....
... I think an early election and a Tory loss is close to inevitable at this point.
Which is a shame for them, but if they believe no deal is something which must be avoided, they will have to take that hit for the nation.
You can lay the Tories to win most seats in the next general election at 2.04 on Betfair which sounds good for a bet you think will be close to inevitable to win.
... I think an early election and a Tory loss is close to inevitable at this point.
Which is a shame for them, but if they believe no deal is something which must be avoided, they will have to take that hit for the nation.
You can lay the Tories to win most seats in the next general election at 2.04 on Betfair which sounds good for a bet you think will be close to inevitable to win.
Talking of moronic politicians there was some no mark called Fish on R5 whilst I was driving home tonight. I can only hope he has someone to make sure he is properly dressed in the morning. His understanding of the things he was so enraged about was pitiful and his alternatives completely incoherent.
It's Fysh actually with Marcus as its first name. Beat David Laws in Yeovil in 2015. Ghastly.
Yes that’s the one. He mentioned Yeovil. Total waste of space and time.
On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?
Someone earlier was tweeting that a bunch of people were waiting until Monday to send in their letters, for whatever point that is supposed to have, but even if he has 48 now I would think he would wait until Monday to annouce.
But if he had them this morning would it have been announced today? I feel the narrative changed today with people saying that the number had not been reached but I thought someone said yesterday that he might wait 48 hours to confirm.
I reckon he will take 48 hours - excluding the weekend - to announce. Not that the delay will do any good....
I find it strange that the media and OGH seem to be assuming that the threshold hasn’t been reached, when maybe it has and Brady is biding his time. Maybe he is a political gambler and he is improving his position!
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
Nah, but most seats is quite likely. A majority of 60 would require nearly a ton of gains.
Clearly we're just being hypothetical at present, but why on earth shouldn't an opposition secure a ton of gains if their opponents implode so spectacularly. 1906? 1931? 1983? 1997?
Because the prospect of a Corbyn government appals and even terrifies a lot of people. What other reason is there for the Tories leading the polls?
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
Nah, but most seats is quite likely. A majority of 60 would require nearly a ton of gains.
Clearly we're just being hypothetical at present, but why on earth shouldn't an opposition secure a ton of gains if their opponents implode so spectacularly. 1906? 1931? 1983? 1997?
Lab would need 385 seats, so 115 gains from present, not sure where that 115th gain would be, perhaps N Somerset?
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
Flaw in your argument is revealed in your final sentence.
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
Flaw in your argument is revealed in your final sentence.
You would like to think so - but look at the polling
By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.
Conversely, every day that passes she(&her only policy) encounter more revealed naysayers. None of these MP votes are coming back to *her*. And she's already underwater in the HoC.
A VONC will just reveal/quantify more opposition.
Historically, the Tory party is brittle: nothing serious seems to happen as load builds up - until it snaps. It won't matter then that she is nominally 'challenge proof for 12months'.
On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?
Someone earlier was tweeting that a bunch of people were waiting until Monday to send in their letters, for whatever point that is supposed to have, but even if he has 48 now I would think he would wait until Monday to annouce.
But if he had them this morning would it have been announced today? I feel the narrative changed today with people saying that the number had not been reached but I thought someone said yesterday that he might wait 48 hours to confirm.
I reckon he will take 48 hours - excluding the weekend - to announce. Not that the delay will do any good....
No hurry or anything, there's still 132 days to go until the UK leaves all its main trading agreements
OT I have just completed the third and final chapter of The Banner Saga (Viking inspired turn based RPG). Combat gameplay is a bit repetitive, and the storytelling is haphazard at times, but still rather compelling if you play all three parts one after the other.
On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?
Someone earlier was tweeting that a bunch of people were waiting until Monday to send in their letters, for whatever point that is supposed to have, but even if he has 48 now I would think he would wait until Monday to annouce.
But if he had them this morning would it have been announced today? I feel the narrative changed today with people saying that the number had not been reached but I thought someone said yesterday that he might wait 48 hours to confirm.
I reckon he will take 48 hours - excluding the weekend - to announce. Not that the delay will do any good....
I find it strange that the media and OGH seem to be assuming that the threshold hasn’t been reached, when maybe it has and Brady is biding his time. Maybe he is a political gambler and he is improving his position!
I think we'll find out what's happening on Monday.
By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.
Conversely, every day that passes she(&her only policy) encounter more revealed naysayers. None of these MP votes are coming back to *her*. And she's already underwater in the HoC.
A VONC will just reveal/quantify more opposition.
Historically, the Tory party is brittle: nothing serious seems to happen as load builds up - until it snaps. It won't matter then that she is nominally 'challenge proof for 12months'.
Every day that passes undermines the argument that we can change course by "renegotiation". Even the ERG aren't brave enough to publicly state that they desire "no deal" just that they would use the threat of no deal as leverage. Because it will hurt "them" more than "us".
By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.
Conversely, every day that passes she(&her only policy) encounter more revealed naysayers. None of these MP votes are coming back to *her*. And she's already underwater in the HoC.
A VONC will just reveal/quantify more opposition.
Historically, the Tory party is brittle: nothing serious seems to happen as load builds up - until it snaps. It won't matter then that she is nominally 'challenge proof for 12months'.
Every day that passes undermines the argument that we can change course by "renegotiation".
Tell that to the Cabinet, even they believe otherwise.
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
I hope that you are wrong and I think you are being a bit pessimistic.
Labour are about to be put under the Brexit spotlight. Their current official position is incoherent nonsense but until now nobody has paid attention. The young voters, swept up in Corbyn mania (unlikely to be repeated at that intensity) are very pro EU. If Labour threaten hard Brexit through unprincipled opposition to May to try and engineer an election or the scales fall from their eyes to reveal Corbyn and McDonell's Brexiteer leanings then they will move way in droves (probably not vote).
Anecdotal - more real life leavers seem reconciled to this deal that I thought would be and far, far fewer remainers are on board. I really thought it would be the opposite. I'd estimate that around 40% of remainers back the deal and about 80% of leavers back it, from the people I know. I really thought it would be the other way around.
I don't think the polls are currently reflecting public opinion.
Anyone who thinks the ERG have the 48 letters are kidding themselves. If they had the numbers they would have been on the BBC am hour ago calling on Brady to fire the gun.
By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.
Conversely, every day that passes she(&her only policy) encounter more revealed naysayers. None of these MP votes are coming back to *her*. And she's already underwater in the HoC.
A VONC will just reveal/quantify more opposition.
Historically, the Tory party is brittle: nothing serious seems to happen as load builds up - until it snaps. It won't matter then that she is nominally 'challenge proof for 12months'.
Every day that passes undermines the argument that we can change course by "renegotiation".
Tell that to the Cabinet, even they believe otherwise.
According to the Daily Borisgraph.
I think the existence of a deal changes the dynamic massively. There is now no need for the EU to negotiate any further. Both sides can play hardball secure in the knowledge that on March 30th the deal is ready to go.
Anecdotal - more real life leavers seem reconciled to this deal that I thought would be and far, far fewer remainers are on board. I really thought it would be the opposite. I'd estimate that around 40% of remainers back the deal and about 80% of leavers back it, from the people I know. I really thought it would be the other way around.
I don't think the polls are currently reflecting public opinion.
I think that the deal can be sold to a majority. A good chunk of remainers currently sense they can reverse Brexit. Some will move to supporting the deal if crash out looks a risk. If public opinion falls behind it then the backtracking will be a joy to behold! In current situation the great mystery is the Lib Dems. Vince, Vince? Where are you?
By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.
Conversely, every day that passes she(&her only policy) encounter more revealed naysayers. None of these MP votes are coming back to *her*. And she's already underwater in the HoC.
A VONC will just reveal/quantify more opposition.
Historically, the Tory party is brittle: nothing serious seems to happen as load builds up - until it snaps. It won't matter then that she is nominally 'challenge proof for 12months'.
Every day that passes undermines the argument that we can change course by "renegotiation".
Tell that to the Cabinet, even they believe otherwise.
According to the Daily Borisgraph.
I think the existence of a deal changes the dynamic massively. There is now no need for the EU to negotiate any further. Both sides can play hardball secure in the knowledge that on March 30th the deal is ready to go.
The BBC are reporting it too (although they use the 'the BBC understands' qualifier which I think is just code for ' we read it in the papers').
Their position is, somehow, more stunningly ridiculous than the ERGs. Those that remained in the Cabinet supposedly back the deal and yet they don't, they are threatening to resign unless changes are made, even as the leader of the Cabinet says no changes are possible and so undermine every inducement for any Labour rebel to consider voting with them. At least Raab quit for christ's sake.
Anyone who thinks the ERG have the 48 letters are kidding themselves. If they had the numbers they would have been on the BBC am hour ago calling on Brady to fire the gun.
Maybe they are trying to prompt May supporters to put in letters to "end the uncertainty".
Anyone who thinks the ERG have the 48 letters are kidding themselves. If they had the numbers they would have been on the BBC am hour ago calling on Brady to fire the gun.
Has anyone asked Baker to name the 48 people who he knows have put in letters?
I think it is extremely difficult to predict the result of the next election.
I do recall that during the 2000 fuel crisis, the polls moved very quickly. Two opinion polls shortly after the protests had ended showed the Tories overtaking the Labour party, though of course that didn't last. It was Blair's first real taste of unpopularity.
People expect politicians to keep things running. As soon as there is serious disruption to peoples' lives, the polls will move, & they will move quickly.
The direction in which they move depends on who ends up with the blame. I could imagine that being either the Tories or Labour.
Anecdotal - more real life leavers seem reconciled to this deal that I thought would be and far, far fewer remainers are on board. I really thought it would be the opposite. I'd estimate that around 40% of remainers back the deal and about 80% of leavers back it, from the people I know. I really thought it would be the other way around.
I don't think the polls are currently reflecting public opinion.
Perhaps your acquaintances don’t reflect public opinion. Anyone I know who has given their opinion haven’t changed it. The deal has split the leavers but the remain ‘because leavers are manipulated imbeciles’ brigade are still out in force. I’ve not heard any remainer say they back the deal even the sensible ones.
Anecdotal - more real life leavers seem reconciled to this deal that I thought would be and far, far fewer remainers are on board. I really thought it would be the opposite. I'd estimate that around 40% of remainers back the deal and about 80% of leavers back it, from the people I know. I really thought it would be the other way around.
I don't think the polls are currently reflecting public opinion.
Perhaps your acquaintances don’t reflect public opinion. Anyone I know who has given their opinion haven’t changed it. The deal has split the leavers but the remain ‘because leavers are manipulated imbeciles’ brigade are still out in force. I’ve not heard any remainer say they back the deal even the sensible ones.
It is clearly a crap deal compared with Remain, but we knew that already.
It does keep many positive parts of being in the EU, and keeps the wheels turning.
Anecdotal - more real life leavers seem reconciled to this deal that I thought would be and far, far fewer remainers are on board. I really thought it would be the opposite. I'd estimate that around 40% of remainers back the deal and about 80% of leavers back it, from the people I know. I really thought it would be the other way around.
I don't think the polls are currently reflecting public opinion.
Perhaps your acquaintances don’t reflect public opinion. Anyone I know who has given their opinion haven’t changed it. The deal has split the leavers but the remain ‘because leavers are manipulated imbeciles’ brigade are still out in force. I’ve not heard any remainer say they back the deal even the sensible ones.
I am surprised by the apparent polling on "the deal". I don't think most people are that engaged. I voted remain primarily because, whilst i thought leave could work with good will on all sides, in practice it would prove too difficult and too disruptive. However i now see pursuing the deal as the least disruptive option. I dread the short term impact of no deal, and i think the idea of another referendum as a nightmare. Frankly, it would be better if we remained through a decision of parliament alone.
Anecdotal - more real life leavers seem reconciled to this deal that I thought would be and far, far fewer remainers are on board. I really thought it would be the opposite. I'd estimate that around 40% of remainers back the deal and about 80% of leavers back it, from the people I know. I really thought it would be the other way around.
I don't think the polls are currently reflecting public opinion.
I came on here to post something similar. Just had an evening with friends, some of whom voted to leave and some to remain. Still some disagreements, but the common threads were (a) Admiration for Mrs May's resilience and patience, (b) A feeling that grandstanding MPs in the debate yesterday were being childish and that Theresa May is at least a grown-up, (c) A feeling that we need to move on and the deal is a basis for that.
Perhaps most of all: (d) No thanks to another referendum or an election!
OK, this is deepest true-blue Sussex, but I suspect similar sentiments are widespread.
By the way, Theresa May (and her supporters) should be encouraging the VONC. If she wins - and I think she would - then when the Deal is defeated (as it assuredly will be), then she need not resign and can at least live to fight another day.....not that may be an appealing prospect.
Conversely, every day that passes she(&her only policy) encounter more revealed naysayers. None of these MP votes are coming back to *her*. And she's already underwater in the HoC.
A VONC will just reveal/quantify more opposition.
Historically, the Tory party is brittle: nothing serious seems to happen as load builds up - until it snaps. It won't matter then that she is nominally 'challenge proof for 12months'.
Every day that passes undermines the argument that we can change course by "renegotiation". Even the ERG aren't brave enough to publicly state that they desire "no deal" just that they would use the threat of no deal as leverage. Because it will hurt "them" more than "us".
Yes, the shortening window of opportunity probably reduces both Labour's and the Brexiteer's chances of renegotiation.
Personally, I'm content for the tories to continue in impotent office and postpone their date with fratricide to 28/3/19. Its clear now that continuity Remain is so powerful that any route to actually getting OUT has to be taken.
Anyone who thinks the ERG have the 48 letters are kidding themselves. If they had the numbers they would have been on the BBC am hour ago calling on Brady to fire the gun.
I think they have the numbers, but Brady may well want to check that each is still valid.
Chicken and Egg, but perhaps more one than the other. I would have done it, I probably could still do it. I certainly have the interest. But I found more good can be achieved working outside politics than in it. And what’s more you can do it and have a private life. Fewer church halls. More weekends.
To do it you have to be single minded and prepared to tolerate the most extreme cliques and boredom.
Never found it boring - I think I could have done it better (more focus - I was interested in everything and specialised in nothing), but it was hugely satisfying at the constituency end (I think I was able to help around half the people who asked for it) and fascinating at the Westminster end. I met the occasional extremist but they were extremely rare. Arguably I'm more influential now in my specialised field and possibly achieving more too, but I do miss it, and think that the media portrayal of everything as Game of Thrones meets In The Thick of It distorts public perception.
(a) Admiration for Mrs May's resilience and patience, (b) A feeling that grandstanding MPs in the debate yesterday were being childish and that Theresa May is at least a grown-up, (c) A feeling that we need to move on and the deal is a basis for that.
I would agree regarding Theresa May -- this is a widespread sentiment. She is building up a considerable reserves of sympathy (despite her failings as a politician).
On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?
Someone earlier was tweeting that a bunch of people were waiting until Monday to send in their letters, for whatever point that is supposed to have, but even if he has 48 now I would think he would wait until Monday to annouce.
But if he had them this morning would it have been announced today? I feel the narrative changed today with people saying that the number had not been reached but I thought someone said yesterday that he might wait 48 hours to confirm.
I reckon he will take 48 hours - excluding the weekend - to announce. Not that the delay will do any good....
I find it strange that the media and OGH seem to be assuming that the threshold hasn’t been reached, when maybe it has and Brady is biding his time. Maybe he is a political gambler and he is improving his position!
May is in a desperately weak position. The letters will have gone in by Monday - she will be facing a VONC by Wednesday. Meanwhile, she has effectively had Brexit taken off her by the Cabinet. Going back to Barnier, dismantling her deal, is the only possible way of finding a formulation that gets the Conservative Party and DUP back in line to pass any deal through the House; otherwise it gets voted down and we roll on to a disorderly No Deal Brexit.
Meanwhile, micro-manager May's new Brexit Minister is not being allowed to acknowledge the current reality:
" the job has essentially been downgraded to focus on domestic preparations for the UK's departure, with Theresa May personally assuming responsibility for the remaining negotiations with the EU."
Anecdotal - more real life leavers seem reconciled to this deal that I thought would be and far, far fewer remainers are on board. I really thought it would be the opposite. I'd estimate that around 40% of remainers back the deal and about 80% of leavers back it, from the people I know. I really thought it would be the other way around.
I don't think the polls are currently reflecting public opinion.
I came on here to post something similar. Just had an evening with friends, some of whom voted to leave and some to remain. Still some disagreements, but the common threads were (a) Admiration for Mrs May's resilience and patience, (b) A feeling that grandstanding MPs in the debate yesterday were being childish and that Theresa May is at least a grown-up, (c) A feeling that we need to move on and the deal is a basis for that.
Perhaps most of all: (d) No thanks to another referendum or an election!
OK, this is deepest true-blue Sussex, but I suspect similar sentiments are widespread.
Yes the sentiment in Hertfordshire tonight was definitely "MPs need to get on with it now" even from those against, the deal seems to be seen as a resolution to the referendum for good or ill.
Anyone who thinks the ERG have the 48 letters are kidding themselves. If they had the numbers they would have been on the BBC am hour ago calling on Brady to fire the gun.
I think they have the numbers, but Brady may well want to check that each is still valid.
Sadly, we may well be headed there. I fear a collision with reality is the only thing which will cure these fanatics.
My concern is that said collision will happen too late to get any Article 50 extension agreed, and thus crash Brexit + hard border for NI both happen automatically .... the very things pretty much no one wants.
Sadly, we may well be headed there. I fear a collision with reality is the only thing which will cure these fanatics.
My concern is that said collision will happen too late to get any Article 50 extension agreed, and thus crash Brexit + hard border for NI both happen automatically .... the very things pretty much no one wants.
Fortunately the existence of the deal means we have an alternative backstop, even until very close to the very last minute.
On Topic - if the 48 letters are in how soon would it be announced?
Someone earlier was tweeting that a bunch of people were waiting until Monday to send in their letters, for whatever point that is supposed to have, but even if he has 48 now I would think he would wait until Monday to annouce.
But if he had them this morning would it have been announced today? I feel the narrative changed today with people saying that the number had not been reached but I thought someone said yesterday that he might wait 48 hours to confirm.
I reckon he will take 48 hours - excluding the weekend - to announce. Not that the delay will do any good....
I find it strange that the media and OGH seem to be assuming that the threshold hasn’t been reached, when maybe it has and Brady is biding his time. Maybe he is a political gambler and he is improving his position!
May is in a desperately weak position. The letters will have gone in by Monday - she will be facing a VONC by Wednesday. Meanwhile, she has effectively had Brexit taken off her by the Cabinet. Going back to Barnier, dismantling her deal, is the only possible way of finding a formulation that gets the Conservative Party and DUP back in line to pass any deal through the House; otherwise it gets voted down and we roll on to a disorderly No Deal Brexit.
Meanwhile, micro-manager May's new Brexit Minister is not being allowed to acknowledge the current reality:
" the job has essentially been downgraded to focus on domestic preparations for the UK's departure, with Theresa May personally assuming responsibility for the remaining negotiations with the EU."
Sadly, we may well be headed there. I fear a collision with reality is the only thing which will cure these fanatics.
My concern is that said collision will happen too late to get any Article 50 extension agreed, and thus crash Brexit + hard border for NI both happen automatically .... the very things pretty much no one wants.
I am beginning to come round to that way of thinking too.
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
Nah, but most seats is quite likely. A majority of 60 would require nearly a ton of gains.
Clearly we're just being hypothetical at present, but why on earth shouldn't an opposition secure a ton of gains if their opponents implode so spectacularly. 1906? 1931? 1983? 1997?
Lab would need 385 seats, so 115 gains from present, not sure where that 115th gain would be, perhaps N Somerset?
Telegraph reporting 200 business leaders signed a letter saying vote down May's deal because it is so bad.
Well, well, it is all falling apart and where again is the Business Sec?
Well just wait until No Deal then if they really want to see bad , the £ and the FTSE crash and millions wiped off their share value
Sadly, we may well be headed there. I fear a collision with reality is the only thing which will cure these fanatics.
Indeed it took the 2008 Stock Market crash in the US after the House of Representatives voted down the bailout to finally convince Congress to pass it.
We need to stare into the abyss of economic apocalypse and I think May is now biding her time until then, she has done her bit now it is Parliament's turn to vote for the Deal she agreed with the EU
But if this govt collapses in abject disarray such that an election eventuates, be prepared for a large Labour overall majority. Forget about what the polls say now.
I think at the moment things are in such a state of flux we cannot even take that for granted. May botched things last time, but between their own splits, Corbyn's ongoing weakness and a mood of hubris among his outriders, they are in serious danger of overplaying their hand and failing yet again. Look at the proposals put forward on housing and land reform. They are sheer madness. Nobody with half a brain would take them seriously, yet Labour do.
All true, but how would the Tories even begin to campaign with an iota of credibility when perhaps dozens of their own MPs (some of whom would still be candidates) had caused the fall of their own government and precipitated the third election in almost as many years? Labour would generally present a united front: I would predict a majority of at least 60 seats. And welcome Venezuela.
Nah, but most seats is quite likely. A majority of 60 would require nearly a ton of gains.
Clearly we're just being hypothetical at present, but why on earth shouldn't an opposition secure a ton of gains if their opponents implode so spectacularly. 1906? 1931? 1983? 1997?
Lab would need 385 seats, so 115 gains from present, not sure where that 115th gain would be, perhaps N Somerset?
Comments
Indeed they keep her in place for most of 2019
I am loyal to her but expect may june next year for a leadership contest.
That could not happen under these cretins plotting
Anything could happen
That sound you can hear is a hair being split...
Obviously beware anecdotes.
This is also all in safe Labour seats anyway.
I hope everyone has a pleasant nights rest
It is not going to get boring anytime soon
Good night folks
I mean, they're even friends with David Davis. But the idea doesn't even seem to have crossed their minds (at least publicly).
And being serious, did they not raise this point when May presented it to Cabinet? Did they ask if she had forgotten to push for a unilateral withdrawal? Why would the EU agree to such a thing? It would quite obviously be something much more to our liking, so what do the gang of five wish to give up in exchange for that?
Whether that was a good thing or not I'll leave up to you.
They've betrayed Leaver's and just the concept of Brexit pisses off Remainers.
The Tories have had it! Bring on Jezza!
What we would be unilaterally withdrawing from, however, is not so clear.
Good night.
A VONC will just reveal/quantify more opposition.
Historically, the Tory party is brittle: nothing serious seems to happen as load builds up - until it snaps. It won't matter then that she is nominally 'challenge proof for 12months'.
Labour are about to be put under the Brexit spotlight. Their current official position is incoherent nonsense but until now nobody has paid attention. The young voters, swept up in Corbyn mania (unlikely to be repeated at that intensity) are very pro EU. If Labour threaten hard Brexit through unprincipled opposition to May to try and engineer an election or the scales fall from their eyes to reveal Corbyn and McDonell's Brexiteer leanings then they will move way in droves (probably not vote).
I don't think the polls are currently reflecting public opinion.
I think the existence of a deal changes the dynamic massively. There is now no need for the EU to negotiate any further. Both sides can play hardball secure in the knowledge that on March 30th the deal is ready to go.
Their position is, somehow, more stunningly ridiculous than the ERGs. Those that remained in the Cabinet supposedly back the deal and yet they don't, they are threatening to resign unless changes are made, even as the leader of the Cabinet says no changes are possible and so undermine every inducement for any Labour rebel to consider voting with them. At least Raab quit for christ's sake.
Good night all.
I do recall that during the 2000 fuel crisis, the polls moved very quickly. Two opinion polls shortly after the protests had ended showed the Tories overtaking the Labour party, though of course that didn't last. It was Blair's first real taste of unpopularity.
People expect politicians to keep things running. As soon as there is serious disruption to peoples' lives, the polls will move, & they will move quickly.
The direction in which they move depends on who ends up with the blame. I could imagine that being either the Tories or Labour.
It does keep many positive parts of being in the EU, and keeps the wheels turning.
Perhaps most of all: (d) No thanks to another referendum or an election!
OK, this is deepest true-blue Sussex, but I suspect similar sentiments are widespread.
Personally, I'm content for the tories to continue in impotent office and postpone their date with fratricide to 28/3/19. Its clear now that continuity Remain is so powerful that any route to actually getting OUT has to be taken.
I expect that we will hear on Monday.
Telegraph reporting 200 business leaders signed a letter saying vote down May's deal because it is so bad.
Well, well, it is all falling apart and where again is the Business Sec?
This is the "Chuck Chequers" brigade so I don't think we should waste much time trying to win them over
Unless of course they are prepared to offer further concessions like permanent Customs Union or Single Market membership
Meanwhile, micro-manager May's new Brexit Minister is not being allowed to acknowledge the current reality:
" the job has essentially been downgraded to focus on domestic preparations for the UK's departure, with Theresa May personally assuming responsibility for the remaining negotiations with the EU."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46241720
She has learned no lessons from the departure of Davis and Raab; I can see Barclay resigning by the end of next week too.
As ever you speak for our nation.....
We need to stare into the abyss of economic apocalypse and I think May is now biding her time until then, she has done her bit now it is Parliament's turn to vote for the Deal she agreed with the EU