politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: Not the End. Not the Beginning of the End. Perhaps, th
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit: Not the End. Not the Beginning of the End. Perhaps, the End of the Beginning.
The UK’s relationship with the EU has never been cosy, and, as you may have noticed, it’s recently become incredibly contentious. Worse still, and regardless of what happens next, this is going to dominate politics in the UK for decades.
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I'm sure there are Brexiteers hoping for final victory with the Septics & Russkis doing some heavy lifting.
'When the last one of us faces the last one of them across the ruins of Belfast, victory will go to the survivor.'
Good header, btw Mr D.
Yay!
https://twitter.com/giantpoppywatch/status/1061605190728630272?s=19
@Anazina said:
"There is probably a potential lead from a brave writer about how our unhealthy obsession with the last century's world wars has led us to the national self harm that is Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/09/no-more-remembrance-days-consign-20th-century-history"
OK - I'll bite. (In two parts for length)
Part One
Part of the reason why these remembrance ceremonies have gained in attendance in recent years (as opposed to, say, 30 or 40 years ago) is because the generations that have first-hand memories are disappearing. So we are conscious not just of the history they commemorate but that we are losing our direct links to those who were involved. That adds a special poignancy to the occasions, a feeling that we perhaps need to capture the stories and memories before they finally disappear and become history rather than memory. And that because there are so few of them we should honour those who remain.
Once they have passed into history then there may well come a time when we no longer need such ceremonies. But I doubt that we will ever have a world without wars and there is a case for remembering those who do serve in such wars, even if we do not need to go overboard with the whole thing. Remembering does not mean storing up grievances. It's what we do with our memories which matters not having them in the first place.
I do strongly feel that we do not know enough about our history and the history of other countries and that has led to dreadful policy errors, stupid politics and a deafness and insensitivity to the concerns of many voters. We need more knowledge of history not less. (How can you possibly understand Islamism without understanding one of its roots in the collapse of the Ottoman Empire following WW1 and what that meant for the Middle East. When Bin Laden talked about the collapse of the Caliphate who really understood what he said and why it mattered. And yet those historical grievances fuel much of the issues which inflame the Middle East. There WW1 and WW2 still have real resonance for people and current politics beyond simply remembering the fallen. We need to understand this.) But it needs to be taught and understood well. It is too often presented in a cartoonish and ill-informed way which does nothing for public understanding or discourse.
All countries have myths about their history - see, for instance, France with its necessary (but untrue) belief that it had a Resistance which helped liberate it as opposed to being a country which happily collaborated with Germany and resented the fact that it did have to be liberated by others. Britain too has its myths and to some extent these are necessary. The history of the 20th century - if laid out in all its brutal reality - would not be kind to any country. Take the vast numbers of Soviet war dead: many of those were killed by the Soviets themselves and belonged to countries which did not want to be taken over by Russia. They were not all heroic Russians fighting Nazis.
Equally, the very different experiences of countries shapes their attitude to developments now. It does seem to me that Britain's experience of two world wars and, crucially, the inter-war period, even more than WW2, is one reason why Britain (or a very significant part of the population) has never felt at a gut level that it is necessary to move on from the nation state, at least not in the same way that other countries have - Italy, for instance, which has never had a nation state worth speaking of. That feeling is one of the tributaries which may have contributed to Brexit though it could equally have contributed to a view that a different but still close association with the EU is needed, as opposed to the "we'll go our own way like it's the 16th century again" nonsense being peddled by some. But Brexit was caused by many things and feeling proud of our role in WW2 is among the least important of those reasons, IMO.
But if one wanted to be really brave one could also say that the EU has been created because of an unhealthy obsession with the last century's world wars and a misunderstanding about their cause. In fact, a writer has done just that (see Yoram Hazony's "The Virtues of Nationalism"). One could argue that it was empires which fought (WW1) and countries which were not liberal democracies (WW2) and that the answer to each is not to recreate quasi-Empires or abolish nation states but to create strong liberal democracies within co-operative nation states. In many ways, the EU is a good answer to the questions which arose 50 or more years ago but may not - in its current form - be as good an answer to the questions which face us now or will face us in the future.
Or that it was a lack of self-confidence which led Britain into the EU and that lack led to so many of the strategic errors which have resulted in Brexit - see this by a somewhat less brave writer - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/18/britains-original-sins/.
I do not see anyone content in the near future for all the reasons given
If I thought remain would see the restoration of order I would be 100% behind it but the damage has been done to the relationship and you cannot put the genie back in the box.
I have no idea where we all go from here but some compromise on language and positions is needed by everyone.
Remainers, leavers, and even the uncommitted are responsible for the dreadful unhappiness in our Country and a moment of reflection on today, of all days, would not go amiss
Sadly I haven't imbibed any of the Vicar's sherry. Not a drop has passed my lips, nor will it before the evening service.
Unknown to me, my youngest son has posted a photograph of his great grandfather in military uniform citing his bravery awards in the Boer war and the injuries he suffered in France in 2016 as he led his men to safety. Other members of the family and friends have responded to his posting in such a respectful way it does make you confident that the families will not easily forget the service to their Country by their forebears
Given that there are, to my certain knowledge Thai children in the class, as well as children with Japanese and German ancestry, I wonder where it’s going to go!
https://fakebuddhaquotes.com/holding-on-to-anger-is-like-grasping-a-hot-coal-with-the-intent-of-harming-another-you-end-up-getting-burned/
Although, it is a perfectly fine Buddhist sentiment.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pelagianism
You can certainly stand in the middle of a chasm, as long as you're at the bottom. Most sane people would try to meet on firm ground, and not in mid-air.
"And now, the EU negotiator is approaching the middle of the high-wire on his unicycle, whilst the Brexiteers approach on their slackline, dressed as clowns whilst juggling copies of Thatcher's autobiography ..."
Edit: that quibble aside, thanks for this, Mr Dancer.
Which means we’ll be asked the questions.
It’s got Mothers washing hanging on it!
Now it's only 48%.
The really sad irony about Haig's posthumous reputation (which owed more to Alan Clark and 1960s stage counterculture than reality) is that the reason he launched so many wasteful attacks is he was trying to bring the war to a quick end to save lives.
You could point out that it was a disastrously ineffectual strategy, but it wasn't anything to do with his tortoise Alan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gq_bjaI0NTo
https://youtu.be/Hd755bbc8uw
(From 6.58)
I didn't see anybody else with a hood though!
It is standard form not to wear hoods for this type of event.
It is important if you are in public office to have the correct image IMO.
It will not change many votes but it reinforces the impression of the lefts strange relationship with issues pertaining to nationalism, military service and the sacrifices of many in the past.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/09/no-more-remembrance-days-consign-20th-century-history
Both sides in the campaign mentioned 'political union' and that this was why the UK had left EFTA ... after forming it 15 years earlier.
The EU has no powers not given to it by member states, via the Council of Ministers. Until Blair, the UK had a veto on most matters.
Like you, I'd deplore the EU meddling in in areas where member states haven't granted it clear powers. However, if the EU had a proper constitution, states' rights could be made clearer as they are in the USA:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/States'_rights
The pro-EU Geoffrey Howe asked for them a few years before his resignation. Other politicians ignored him.
I really just hope it is the end of a beginning soon, just so that something will have changed and slightly different fights can take place, albeit within the same basic issue. But the constant waiting for May to be brought down, or for Labour to switch to referendum backing openly (as they are clearly preparing to do once a deal is voted down and a GE does not happen), or indeed the constant speculation over whether a deal will pass (quite why the speculation I do not know - the kinds of people who would have to hold their noses to vote for it, for Tories and Labour, seem pretty clear they will not as they hope for the Remain Dream MD talks about).
Hopefully there will be a bunch of Cabinet resignations tomorrow or something or a summit be called, just to break the tedium of all these sides dancing around each other as we avoid the key question - will a vote in the Commons pass.
The most positive estimate I have seen on here about it is that it would, on the second attempt, so there seems little doubt at least once it would not pass (and I don't personally think they will get a second chance as the gov then collapses), so let's just get to that point and then take stock.
Christ, why even wait for May and the EU to, maybe, announce a deal? People are going to vote for or against irrespective of what the final deal is, their positions are fixed already based on what has been reported, just hold the vote now.
On what I am sure someone somewhere is desperately trying to call coatgate, it's clearly a nothing story. I saw him, thought, 'Huh, don't usually see a hooded coat at these things, I wonder why that is. Whatever'. Any attempt to push this would fail. Yes, people should not look totally scruffy at important civic occasions, but if people try to suggest he looked that bad it will backfire as it really was not, for all I did notice it.
The past has repurcussions far into the future.
The longer ago something was, the more detached we are from it, the easier it is to stomach some truly terrible things that have happened, so there's even more reason to continue to remember it, reflect on it, so long as you do not go totally in the opposite direction and persist in using old grudges as excuses for present shitty behaviour. Thinking on how crazy some of it seems to us seems helpful.
We should all know a lot more history, including that personal to us. I don't see what benefit there is to metaphorically burying any of it.
I saw "They Shall Not Grow Old" the other day. It is on BBC2 at 2130 tonight, and a welcome departure from depicting soldiers as victims or martyrs. It is unsparing, but compelling.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/11/11/plight-asia-bibi-should-have-everyone-west-trembling/
And we apparently have declined to accept her here.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/lawyer-seeks-asylum-for-asia-bibi-family-in-netherlands-1944994
@EuropeElects
UK, ICM poll
CON-ECR: 40% (-1)
LAB-S&D: 38% (-2)
LDEM-ALDE: 9%
UKIP-EFDD: 5% (+1)
GREENS-G/EFA: 3%
SNP-G/EFA: 3%
PC-G/EFA: 1% (+1)
Field work: 26/10/18 – 28/10/18
Sample size: 1,644"
I'm going to stick my neck out and predict how I think events will develop. I expect
i May will not be able to put together a deal acceptable to both parliament and the EU, it's quite likely that we will get to January next year without a deal ready to put to parliament;
ii At some point between now and February, probably sooner rather than later, an atmopsohere of panic will develop, supermarkets will begin to warn of food shortages, there will be pressure on sterling and business groups will warn of immediate threats to jobs and essential supplies,
iii It will become clear that the country is about to rush headlong over a cliff with incalculable consequences, this will lead to immense pressure on MPs to take emergency action, the only option open to them will be to seek terms from the EU to suspend the widrawal process to allow another referendum to take place,
iv Another referendum will produce a majority for remain significantly larger than the majority for leave in the first one,
v In future leavers will still be a political force, rather as former communists are a political force in Eastern Europe, but it will be clear that their ideas are discredited and cannot be implemented in the way they suggest. They will not get near to government again for the foreseeable future.
So I'm actually quite optimistic that we can put the disasters of the past few years behind us. It will take time but it can be done.
In all seriousness, a bit disrespectful for the people that we are supposed to be remembering.