Going to be a rough choice come the next election. Indescribably incompetent Tories, Corbynites (of the fervent and reluctant crowd makes little difference) and the single issue party that is the Invisible Liberals (yes, internet pedants, technically they have other issues too, in the same way May technically has the support of her party).
Here's hoping for some non crazy independent to allow for a simple protest vote.
This is being reported on UKIP website, anyone think it’s potentially true? Surely this would never be agreed by s British Cabinet or get through parliament
“It is being reported from sources in Brussels that a Brexit deal has been secretly agreed.
The Sources say the UK will leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 under the following conditions:
1. The UK will become an "associate" member of the Customs union. 2. The UK will become an "associate" member of the Single Market. 3. The UK will adhere to the rulings of the ECJ and the ECHR if the EU deems it must. 4. The UK will allow free movement of EU citizens into the UK and grant them all the rights of British citizens. 5. The UK will only form foreign trade deals which the EU approves. 6. The UK Parliament will comply with the rulings of the EU Parliament and incorporate these into British Law if the EU demands this. 7. The UK will pay the EU the membership fees agreed with no rebates.
UKIP Leader Gerard Batten said:
"If this turns out to be true then it will be a complete betrayal of the referendum result.
"Only a complete exit from the EU will deliver the result 17.4 million people voted for.”
This is being reported on UKIP website, anyone think it’s potentially true? Surely this would never be agreed by s British Cabinet or get through parliament
“It is being reported from sources in Brussels that a Brexit deal has been secretly agreed.
The Sources say the UK will leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 under the following conditions:
1. The UK will become an "associate" member of the Customs union. 2. The UK will become an "associate" member of the Single Market. 3. The UK will adhere to the rulings of the ECJ and the ECHR if the EU deems it must. 4. The UK will allow free movement of EU citizens into the UK and grant them all the rights of British citizens. 5. The UK will only form foreign trade deals which the EU approves. 6. The UK Parliament will comply with the rulings of the EU Parliament and incorporate these into British Law if the EU demands this. 7. The UK will pay the EU the membership fees agreed with no rebates.
UKIP Leader Gerard Batten said:
"If this turns out to be true then it will be a complete betrayal of the referendum result.
"Only a complete exit from the EU will deliver the result 17.4 million people voted for.”
I'd take that with a pinch of salt, given the source.
Well, quite. More than that though, there's little reason to assume a delay leads to a significantly clearer UK position. The Tories are not going to be able to get their shit together if they have not before now, and frankly should split because if you disagree fundamentally on the damage, or not, of some of these options which the party then chooses then it is serious enough to suggest the party is not for you any longer, this is not some minor disagreement. Labour might get their shit a little more together, but hardly united, and there's little to indicate they will be in a dominant enough position to hammer through some option to negotiation with the EU either.
The only card May has left is Operation Blame Brussels.
"We have tried throughout this process to be creative and above all, to be reasonable. The EU has not. The EU has been offered a mechanism that covers their practical concern on the Irish border. That they will not accept it tells us all we need to know about their lack of good faith in these negotiations.
Therefore, with heavy heart, I have reached agreement withthe Cabinet that the UK will leave the EU on 29th March 2019 without a deal. The Chancellor will now commit the funding necessary for the Govt. to implement a No Deal Brexit. I still have faith that sector by sector and country by country, we can still implement practical solutions to minimise the undoubted problems this will cause. But have no doubt - the reason we are at this outcome rests with Brussels, and Brussels alone."
This is being reported on UKIP website, anyone think it’s potentially true? Surely this would never be agreed by s British Cabinet or get through parliament
“It is being reported from sources in Brussels that a Brexit deal has been secretly agreed.
The Sources say the UK will leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 under the following conditions:
1. The UK will become an "associate" member of the Customs union. 2. The UK will become an "associate" member of the Single Market. 3. The UK will adhere to the rulings of the ECJ and the ECHR if the EU deems it must. 4. The UK will allow free movement of EU citizens into the UK and grant them all the rights of British citizens. 5. The UK will only form foreign trade deals which the EU approves. 6. The UK Parliament will comply with the rulings of the EU Parliament and incorporate these into British Law if the EU demands this. 7. The UK will pay the EU the membership fees agreed with no rebates.
UKIP Leader Gerard Batten said:
"If this turns out to be true then it will be a complete betrayal of the referendum result.
"Only a complete exit from the EU will deliver the result 17.4 million people voted for.”
Well I doubt UKIP's interpretation of any supposed agreement can be taken entirely at face value since they have clear political benefit to attain by interpreting any supposed deal as negatively as possible, but no, I don't see how something along those lines could get through parliament given Labour still won't back anything the Tories come back with, and shedloads of Tories wouldn't vote for that.
One thing I do think the Tories should have reconciled themselves to quite some time ago was that, if the majority of them did not want no deal (plenty do after all), they would have to accept that they would probably face repercussions in the polling for potentially years, since a deal was only possible with compromise and even in a best case scenario plenty would not like that. Instead they tried to put off any decision for so long internally that they don't even have time to negotiate externally.
Well, quite. More than that though, there's little reason to assume a delay leads to a significantly clearer UK position. The Tories are not going to be able to get their shit together if they have not before now, and frankly should split because if you disagree fundamentally on the damage, or not, of some of these options which the party then chooses then it is serious enough to suggest the party is not for you any longer, this is not some minor disagreement. Labour might get their shit a little more together, but hardly united, and there's little to indicate they will be in a dominant enough position to hammer through some option to negotiation with the EU either.
The only card May has left is Operation Blame Brussels.
"We have tried throughout this process to be creative and above all, to be reasonable. The EU has not. The EU has been offered a mechanism that covers their practical concern on the Irish border. That they will not accept it tells us all we need to know about their lack of good faith in these negotiations.
Therefore, with heavy heart, I have reached agreement withthe Cabinet that the UK will leave the EU on 29th March 2019 without a deal. The Chancellor will now commit the funding necessary for the Govt. to implement a No Deal Brexit. I still have faith that sector by sector and country by country, we can still implement practical solutions to minimise the undoubted problems this will cause. But have no doubt - the reason we are at this outcome rests with Brussels, and Brussels alone."
She tried that a month ago. I have some sympathy with the position as the EU has been more truculent than I think they needed to be (this is not suggesting they do us favours, only taking them at their word that they also want a deal), but I don't see how that holds the Tories together. Whatever the faults of the EU the fundamental problem of the negotiations has appeared to be we took so long to tell them what we wanted, and couldn't agree anything worthwhile before we even met with the EU. I know most MPs will put up with that, but they know the truth, how can the party keep its shit together in that situation?
The bottom line is that May does not have the votes. Not even close now. She will have to do a deal with someone that does.
That means Corbyn.
If Corbyn does a deal with May over Brexit my membership card I have proudly held for many many years will be torn up, along with thousands of others. I reckon there are no more than 20% hard line Corbyn brexiteers.
So as well as having no respect for the democratic vote to Leave the EU you put petty party politics over getting a sensible Brexit deal for the country too
The bottom line is that May does not have the votes. Not even close now. She will have to do a deal with someone that does.
That means Corbyn.
If Corbyn does a deal with May over Brexit my membership card I have proudly held for many many years will be torn up, along with thousands of others. I reckon there are no more than 20% hard line Corbyn brexiteers.
So as well as having no respect for the democratic vote to Leave the EU you put petty party politics over getting a sensible Brexit deal for the country too
Most will, on both sides.
They also have hopes of reversing or hardening brexit if they obstruct
"Er, so that the UK can get its shit together and make a proper fist of the negotiations..."
To which they reply, "Fuck off - we have you by the balls, why should we relax our grip?"
I think they would perfectly reasonably say "After 1 year and 9 months, it's actually time for Britain to decide what it wants. Is there any reason to think that additional time will make that more likely?"
I still cannot for the life of me think why CU UK wide won’t work. It satisfies the Duppers and is Labour policy in any case (so Lab can hardly oppose it). Would sail through. Deal done, and we get on with our lives?
The EU doesn’t (or didn’t) like it. Cherry picking I believe.
Yet a CU is being insisted upon for Northern Ireland by the EU. Cherries and err picking.
This is being reported on UKIP website, anyone think it’s potentially true? Surely this would never be agreed by s British Cabinet or get through parliament
“It is being reported from sources in Brussels that a Brexit deal has been secretly agreed.
The Sources say the UK will leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 under the following conditions:
1. The UK will become an "associate" member of the Customs union. 2. The UK will become an "associate" member of the Single Market. 3. The UK will adhere to the rulings of the ECJ and the ECHR if the EU deems it must. 4. The UK will allow free movement of EU citizens into the UK and grant them all the rights of British citizens. 5. The UK will only form foreign trade deals which the EU approves. 6. The UK Parliament will comply with the rulings of the EU Parliament and incorporate these into British Law if the EU demands this. 7. The UK will pay the EU the membership fees agreed with no rebates.
UKIP Leader Gerard Batten said:
"If this turns out to be true then it will be a complete betrayal of the referendum result.
"Only a complete exit from the EU will deliver the result 17.4 million people voted for.”
The answer is "who knows?"
However, I suspect that some is not true at all (in particular 4 and 7 seem implausible), and the onerousness of the others depends on how wide the net is drawn. To use my oft quoted example, we are treaty bound to follow the technical directives of the International Telecoms Union, which determines interconnectivity between countries telecoms networks, the frequency of light in undersea fiberoptic cable, systems for international dialing, country codes, etc. In theory the ITU has the extraordinary power to issue the UK with an unlimited fine, and we are required to implement their directives into British law.
In reality, of course, none of the things the ITU rules on are in any way contentious, and I don't think its tribunal has ever issued any meaningful fine on treaty signatory.
If the UK were required as part of the deal to maintain compatibility with the CE designation on electronics goods, and that they should be made to those standards, then it would be a diminution of sovereignty, sure. And it would fall under the headings of 3 and 6. But it would not actually make the blindest bit of practical difference. Simply, the market for non-EC (and non FCC and non UL, which are US standards) electronics is essentially zero.
I still cannot for the life of me think why CU UK wide won’t work. It satisfies the Duppers and is Labour policy in any case (so Lab can hardly oppose it). Would sail through. Deal done, and we get on with our lives?
The EU doesn’t (or didn’t) like it. Cherry picking I believe.
Yet a CU is being insisted upon for Northern Ireland by the EU. Cherries and err picking.
Yup, they're making an exception with that particular cherry because of the whole let's not have a civil war in NI again issue. A UK-wide CU could also work, but TMay would have to erase more of her other red lines.
On topic, I think there's more-or-less stable equilibrium that starts with a moderately BINO deal and gets increasingly more BiNO as the practical concerns that made the UK sign up to all the different EU steps in the first place get reasserted in a bunch of little deals.
Everybody will hate this outcome and there will be more terrorism by nationalist extremists whatever happens, but once you're out I think there's too much stop energy to overcome to get back in, but also too much practical downside and obscure technical tangle to actually act like you're out.
On topic, I think there's more-or-less stable equilibrium that starts with a moderately BINO deal and gets increasingly more BiNO as the practical concerns that made the UK sign up to all the different EU steps in the first place get reasserted in a bunch of little deals.
Everybody will hate this outcome and there will be more terrorism by nationalist extremists whatever happens, but once you're out I think there's too much stop energy to overcome to get back in, but also too much practical downside and obscure technical tangle to actually act like you're out.
Well, quite. More than that though, there's little reason to assume a delay leads to a significantly clearer UK position. The Tories are not going to be able to get their shit together if they have not before now, and frankly should split because if you disagree fundamentally on the damage, or not, of some of these options which the party then chooses then it is serious enough to suggest the party is not for you any longer, this is not some minor disagreement. Labour might get their shit a little more together, but hardly united, and there's little to indicate they will be in a dominant enough position to hammer through some option to negotiation with the EU either.
The only card May has left is Operation Blame Brussels.
"We have tried throughout this process to be creative and above all, to be reasonable. The EU has not. The EU has been offered a mechanism that covers their practical concern on the Irish border. That they will not accept it tells us all we need to know about their lack of good faith in these negotiations.
Therefore, with heavy heart, I have reached agreement withthe Cabinet that the UK will leave the EU on 29th March 2019 without a deal. The Chancellor will now commit the funding necessary for the Govt. to implement a No Deal Brexit. I still have faith that sector by sector and country by country, we can still implement practical solutions to minimise the undoubted problems this will cause. But have no doubt - the reason we are at this outcome rests with Brussels, and Brussels alone."
This position would unravel in about 72 hours once the 1,001 shitty implications of it became evident.
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
Just a reminder that even if we cancelled it today first thing after breakfast, Brexit would still be the most damaging thing that has happened to the UK economy since the war.
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
Just a reminder that even if we cancelled it today first thing after breakfast, Brexit would still be the most damaging thing that has happened to the UK economy since the war.
I think we need some balance. There have been some positives to Brexit: - blue passports - special commemorative 50p coin - the “Festival of Brexit” - er...
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
Just a reminder that even if we cancelled it today first thing after breakfast, Brexit would still be the most damaging thing that has happened to the UK economy since the war.
I think we need some balance. There have been some positives to Brexit: - blue passports - special commemorative 50p coin - the “Festival of Brexit” - er...
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
What would a second referendum achieve, unless it's 60/40?
We won’t know the result until we hold it. It could easily be more decisive than 60/40.
I very much doubt it. Most people haven't changed their minds.
The way to solve that conundrum is to have another referendum with 3 options: 1. Leave with whatever deal is negotiated 2. Leave with no deal 3. Remain
Justine Greening proposed this on the Today programme a few minutes ago. She suggested using AV, but FPTP would give a clearer outcome.
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
What would a second referendum achieve, unless it's 60/40?
We won’t know the result until we hold it. It could easily be more decisive than 60/40.
I very much doubt it. Most people haven't changed their minds.
The way to solve that conundrum is to have another referendum with 3 options: 1. Leave with whatever deal is negotiated 2. Leave with no deal 3. Remain
Justine Greening proposed this on the Today programme a few minutes ago. She suggested using AV, but FPTP would give a clearer outcome.
Just a reminder that even if we cancelled it today first thing after breakfast, Brexit would still be the most damaging thing that has happened to the UK economy since the war.
I think we need some balance. There have been some positives to Brexit: - blue passports - special commemorative 50p coin - the “Festival of Brexit” - er...
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
What would a second referendum achieve, unless it's 60/40?
No idea. It would be rolling a dice.
When the government can't agree on its own position, when the main opposition party disagrees with its MPs and supporters, then maybe it's time to ask the people.
On topic, I think there's more-or-less stable equilibrium that starts with a moderately BINO deal and gets increasingly more BiNO as the practical concerns that made the UK sign up to all the different EU steps in the first place get reasserted in a bunch of little deals.
Everybody will hate this outcome and there will be more terrorism by nationalist extremists whatever happens, but once you're out I think there's too much stop energy to overcome to get back in, but also too much practical downside and obscure technical tangle to actually act like you're out.
What he said.
... but it's worse than remaining and the now more people want to remain.
I don’t have a subscription to read it in full, but unless he changes tack considerably after the initial paragraph teased in the Telegraph article, it seems that Boris has reached a whole new level of disapproval of May’s approach to Brexit. Has anyone read enough of it to get an idea of how his suggested cabinet mutiny (rather than the more conventional leadership challenge) is meant to work?
His whole piece is based on the fact that when we were full members of the EU we could leave via article 50 and the choice was the UK's to make. The deal May is bringing back is that the UK will sign up to customs union and regulation and they do trade deals, etc and we can not decide to leave. Only the EU can decide if we can leave this deal.
We can walk out and no deal the EU as Boris wants but fortunately the Country does not take kindly to trashing our manufacturing jobs and breaking up the union
I'm having difficulty in seeing how "no deal" will not happen. There is no majority in the house to pass any kind of deal, and people are losing themselves in fantasies (another deal, a second referendum, Sinn Fein taking their seats). Without a majority to push something thru, "no deal" will happen by default.
Or to put it another way: we have jumped out of the plane, nobody can agree how to build a parachute, and the ground is coming up remarkably fast.
I think the answer is that Mrs May, or her successor, asks the EU for an extension. I think that is an increasingly likely scenario.
Why the hell would the EU agree to any extension?
"Er, so that the UK can get its shit together and make a proper fist of the negotiations..."
To which they reply, "Fuck off - we have you by the balls, why should we relax our grip?"
The EU would agree to an extension if it were to arrange for the holding of a new referendum.
A source likely to be just as biased as UKIP, but as we gave one side a hearing here's the other. Hope not Hate are claiming that their latest poll has a majority of leave voters supporting a second referendum.
Yet again your complete failure to understand monarchy and tradition not free market liberalism is the epitome of conservatism either if neither are socialism
Yet again your complete failure to understand monarchy and tradition not free market liberalism is the epitome of conservatism either if neither are socialism
All those conservatives in America love their monarch of course.
Yet again your complete failure to understand monarchy and tradition not free market liberalism is the epitome of conservatism either if neither are socialism
All those conservatives in America love their monarch of course.
Don't be a numpty.
Trump is a nationalist not a conservative.
Conservatives in Australia and New Zealand and Canada and Japan are all monarchists.
Conservatism arose from defence of the monarchy and landed classes in Europe, it was liberalism that arose from support for the free market and merchant classes
Comments
Here's hoping for some non crazy independent to allow for a simple protest vote.
“It is being reported from sources in Brussels that a Brexit deal has been secretly agreed.
The Sources say the UK will leave the European Union on 29 March 2019 under the following conditions:
1. The UK will become an "associate" member of the Customs union.
2. The UK will become an "associate" member of the Single Market.
3. The UK will adhere to the rulings of the ECJ and the ECHR if the EU deems it must.
4. The UK will allow free movement of EU citizens into the UK and grant them all the rights of British citizens.
5. The UK will only form foreign trade deals which the EU approves.
6. The UK Parliament will comply with the rulings of the EU Parliament and incorporate these into British Law if the EU demands this.
7. The UK will pay the EU the membership fees agreed with no rebates.
UKIP Leader Gerard Batten said:
"If this turns out to be true then it will be a complete betrayal of the referendum result.
"Only a complete exit from the EU will deliver the result 17.4 million people voted for.”
but is the tory party willing to serve PrimeMinister Corbyn?
Alternatively, sack Hammond&the bedblockers and do some, you know, actual f@cking work on WTO exit preparations.
This the choice for the Tory Party: subordination or survival.
Hamas commander 'is killed as Israeli Special Forces launch bid to kidnap him sparking gun battle that causes casualties on both sides'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6378005/Israeli-special-forces-soldiers-attempt-kidnap-senior-Hamas-commander-sparking-gun-battle.html
"We have tried throughout this process to be creative and above all, to be reasonable. The EU has not. The EU has been offered a mechanism that covers their practical concern on the Irish border. That they will not accept it tells us all we need to know about their lack of good faith in these negotiations.
Therefore, with heavy heart, I have reached agreement withthe Cabinet that the UK will leave the EU on 29th March 2019 without a deal. The Chancellor will now commit the funding necessary for the Govt. to implement a No Deal Brexit. I still have faith that sector by sector and country by country, we can still implement practical solutions to minimise the undoubted problems this will cause. But have no doubt - the reason we are at this outcome rests with Brussels, and Brussels alone."
One thing I do think the Tories should have reconciled themselves to quite some time ago was that, if the majority of them did not want no deal (plenty do after all), they would have to accept that they would probably face repercussions in the polling for potentially years, since a deal was only possible with compromise and even in a best case scenario plenty would not like that. Instead they tried to put off any decision for so long internally that they don't even have time to negotiate externally.
They also have hopes of reversing or hardening brexit if they obstruct
However, I suspect that some is not true at all (in particular 4 and 7 seem implausible), and the onerousness of the others depends on how wide the net is drawn. To use my oft quoted example, we are treaty bound to follow the technical directives of the International Telecoms Union, which determines interconnectivity between countries telecoms networks, the frequency of light in undersea fiberoptic cable, systems for international dialing, country codes, etc. In theory the ITU has the extraordinary power to issue the UK with an unlimited fine, and we are required to implement their directives into British law.
In reality, of course, none of the things the ITU rules on are in any way contentious, and I don't think its tribunal has ever issued any meaningful fine on treaty signatory.
If the UK were required as part of the deal to maintain compatibility with the CE designation on electronics goods, and that they should be made to those standards, then it would be a diminution of sovereignty, sure. And it would fall under the headings of 3 and 6. But it would not actually make the blindest bit of practical difference. Simply, the market for non-EC (and non FCC and non UL, which are US standards) electronics is essentially zero.
Everybody will hate this outcome and there will be more terrorism by nationalist extremists whatever happens, but once you're out I think there's too much stop energy to overcome to get back in, but also too much practical downside and obscure technical tangle to actually act like you're out.
https://twitter.com/cwtchcaerdydd/status/1061852873259126784?s=21
https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1061554026284834817?s=21
Not that it's likely, it would probably be much the same result as last time.
Kept a few colleagues off the air, and meant those who made it on didn’t get bounced round the echo chamber all day.
However, crunch time is apparently here with no cabinet meeting, presumably because there’s not a deal which satisfies even her.
Anyway, as long as the Tory boil on Europe has been lanced. Oh.
- blue passports
- special commemorative 50p coin
- the “Festival of Brexit”
- er...
https://twitter.com/kingking3107/status/1061878172814336000?s=21
1. Leave with whatever deal is negotiated
2. Leave with no deal
3. Remain
Justine Greening proposed this on the Today programme a few minutes ago. She suggested using AV, but FPTP would give a clearer outcome.
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1061843483554660352?s=19
My highlight is absentee ballot be marked. Invalid 2 months after the election in 2014.
Don't be a numpty.
Conservatives in Australia and New Zealand and Canada and Japan are all monarchists.
Conservatism arose from defence of the monarchy and landed classes in Europe, it was liberalism that arose from support for the free market and merchant classes