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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part tw

2

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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    Perhaps a job with Twitter?
    if he had toughed out the Brexit transition he may have had a point, but if we were in a head to head with Russia or China whos to say he wouldnt flounce off just because the PM asked him to do something he didnt agree with
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,569

    2p
    Surely all bets on her should be 2p off?
  • To be fair to Cameron, it can be difficult to know whether you'll enjoy retirement or a similar change unless you've committed already. Not to mention he seemed convinced he had to go.

    He may be looking at the Cabinet and thinking it is not necessarily overflowing with talent.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099

    To be fair to Cameron, it can be difficult to know whether you'll enjoy retirement or a similar change unless you've committed already. Not to mention he seemed convinced he had to go.

    He may be looking at the Cabinet and thinking it is not necessarily overflowing with talent.

    Plus he is only 52 and his Deputy PM and Chancellor are now in jobs earning around £1 million a year
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099
    edited November 2018
    Charles said:

    Remember winning election is about getting people to vote FOR you. Not chasing them away in the pursuit of purity
    Well obviously but that does not change the fact BigG voted Labour in 1997 and 2001 so he is not the ultra party loyalist he sometimes claims to be.

    Plus Corbyn and Momentum are changing the game somewhat from the days of New Labour
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    rcs1000 said:

    If you want the Washington Post for almost nothing, then install Kindle for Android or iPhone, change your country to the US (it's OK, you can use a UK credit card still), and then go to subscriptions and choose Washington Post : you get six months free, and then about $4/month after. You can log in - using your Amazon account - on their website

    It’s a testament to how effective Trump’s name-calling is that I immediately thought ”Amazon Washington Post” when I read the first few words.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099

    what on earth is Camron thinking ? Presumably "Id make a vey good Foreign Secretary".

    Im afarid he's had his time in politics and should look for something else to do.

    Chipping Norton Parish Council?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    To be fair to Cameron, it can be difficult to know whether you'll enjoy retirement or a similar change unless you've committed already. Not to mention he seemed convinced he had to go.

    He may be looking at the Cabinet and thinking it is not necessarily overflowing with talent.

    He should set up a nice B&B and invite ex leaders to stay

    Angela Merkel could be his first guest
  • Scott_P said:
    Holy cow...maybe the we should stop the labour party, not just brexit.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856

    He should set up a nice B&B and invite ex leaders to stay

    Angela Merkel could be his first guest
    Bed and Brexit?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787
    HYUFD said:

    Chipping Norton Parish Council?
    Unlikely that involves real work
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,787

    Bed and Brexit?
    lol
  • The disagreement on thge facts is odd. Crouch clearly suggests that a decision was taken to introduce the change this month. May's frosty reply to her quite friendly letter says flatly that it's not the case. I suppose it's one of those cases where a decision is made in verbal discussion and subsequently overridden. But why May allowed it to become a major issue is really baffling.
    Hammond should not get away scot free either, as he sanctioned the delay as McVey's boss. The motive of the Treasury was to protect a small revenue source generated from a practice that routinely destroys peoples' lives. When was the last time that a Government embarked on a giveaway budget bonanza* but saw a ministerial resignation within days related to that same budget?

    *Albeit an entirely fortuitous bonanza generated by a past miscalculation given that the current and future GDP forecasts remain anemic.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099
    rkrkrk said:

    Nice podcast again - enjoying the shorter length format.

    One thing that's striking to me on Presidents is that, at least since WWII and perhaps before that, successful Democratic candidates tend to be younger and Republicans older.

    Of the 14 Presidents from FDR onwards, Democrats make up the 5 youngest and Republicans the 5 oldest. The two who are out of order are Truman and Johnson, who of course both served as VP before and became President through a death.

    Does that have any relevance for 2020? Perhaps makes me just a bit more cautious on the idea that Biden and Warren are such frontrunners...

    Yes but against incumbent Presidents Democratic candidates ie Kerry, Mondale, McGovern, Stevenson etc tend to be much older.

    The younger Democrats tend to either win without facing an incumbent President e.g. JFK or Obama or after facing a President from a party which has been in office for 8 years or more e.g. Carter or Bill Clinton neither condition of which applies in 2020
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,569
    Scott_P said:
    You've got to feel a bit sorry for Scotland Yard. Everyone in politics is going to be annoyed with them.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,569

    Bed and Brexit?
    The Brexit would however be Continental not Full English.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099
    IanB2 said:

    "Sanders's"

    Accuracy really isn't your thing.
    Actually technically Sanders' but fortunately I was asleep rather than having to engage
  • Mr. P, that's disturbing, if the report about May's decision is accurate.

    Mr. Glenn, ha, that's rather good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099
    edited November 2018

    And not for nothing was it once known as UKIPHome.....

    It's an interesting site, but their poll respondents are definitely on the UKIP/Hard Brexit wing of the party.
    ConHome got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on.

    If you only want a poll the last poll of Tory members from Yougov had Mogg ahead, so there

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2018/07/09/leave-voting-conservative-party-members-are-starti/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    HYUFD said:


    Well obviously but that does not change the fact BigG voted Labour in 1997 and 2001 so he is not the ultra party loyalist he sometimes claims to be.

    Plus Corbyn and Momentum are changing the game somewhat from the days of New Labour

    That does sound a bit like some of my more zealot grassroots colleagues - "X voted the wrong way in 2001 so is just a bloody Tory really".

    Political parties need a mixture of inspiration and common zeal, don't they? New Labour, for all its successes in the early years, drained the well to the point that most of us in 2010 were no longer sure what we stood for - we were just sure we were better than the Tories. That isn't enough. You're keen to have a Conservative Party that really stands for something, and that's a fair objective. But if you alienate people like BigG it's the same mistake as if the left alienate someone like Yvette Cooper.

    What keeps Labour together is that it's got a strong left-wing leadership but that leadership is notably tolerant of dissent - there is virtually no effort to nudge local parties into choosing the right sort of candidates (which I've seen throughout the previous 45 years).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099

    I suspect history will be kind to Cameron's first term and pretty unforgiving of his second.

    How exactly is he going to be in the HoC to be Foreign Secretary? Or does he think he can do it from the Lords? I doubt the hard grind between him & the job (and no guarantee of getting it) are his cup of tea.

    On the Crouch resignation I suspect; i) The govt did not want (any more) headlines over job losses in April 2019 so shunted it back 6 months, ii) Crouch did a 'do it in April or I quit' iii) Pour encourage les autres May said 'there's the door'.

    If the decision had been to delay 'indefinitely' or for '18 months' I could understand it, but over a 6 month delay seems a tad excessive. Perhaps Ms Crouch overplayed her hand and backed herself into a corner.

    Boris will not stand at GE2020 and has risen as far as he will ever rise in politics. As Lilian Bayliss of the Old Vic once observed to an aspiring actress; 'Well, you had your chance my dear, and you've muffed it'
    Boris leads the latest ConHome polling, he is not going anywhere whatever you may wish for
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rkrkrk said:

    Nice podcast again - enjoying the shorter length format.

    One thing that's striking to me on Presidents is that, at least since WWII and perhaps before that, successful Democratic candidates tend to be younger and Republicans older.

    Of the 14 Presidents from FDR onwards, Democrats make up the 5 youngest and Republicans the 5 oldest. The two who are out of order are Truman and Johnson, who of course both served as VP before and became President through a death.

    Does that have any relevance for 2020? Perhaps makes me just a bit more cautious on the idea that Biden and Warren are such frontrunners...

    Isn’t it just the continuity vs change dynamic?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    I suspect history will be kind to Cameron's first term and pretty unforgiving of his second.

    How exactly is he going to be in the HoC to be Foreign Secretary? Or does he think he can do it from the Lords? I doubt the hard grind between him & the job (and no guarantee of getting it) are his cup of tea.

    On the Crouch resignation I suspect; i) The govt did not want (any more) headlines over job losses in April 2019 so shunted it back 6 months, ii) Crouch did a 'do it in April or I quit' iii) Pour encourage les autres May said 'there's the door'.

    If the decision had been to delay 'indefinitely' or for '18 months' I could understand it, but over a 6 month delay seems a tad excessive. Perhaps Ms Crouch overplayed her hand and backed herself into a corner.

    Boris will not stand at GE2020 and has risen as far as he will ever rise in politics. As Lilian Bayliss of the Old Vic once observed to an aspiring actress; 'Well, you had your chance my dear, and you've muffed it'
    Given Boris’ track record and Marina’s friends that’s a very good choice of word
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,275
    Scott_P said:
    Shouldn't they be catching burglars?

    Or is time on "hate crime" fine and dandy when leftists are on the receiving end?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099
    edited November 2018

    That does sound a bit like some of my more zealot grassroots colleagues - "X voted the wrong way in 2001 so is just a bloody Tory really".

    Political parties need a mixture of inspiration and common zeal, don't they? New Labour, for all its successes in the early years, drained the well to the point that most of us in 2010 were no longer sure what we stood for - we were just sure we were better than the Tories. That isn't enough. You're keen to have a Conservative Party that really stands for something, and that's a fair objective. But if you alienate people like BigG it's the same mistake as if the left alienate someone like Yvette Cooper.

    What keeps Labour together is that it's got a strong left-wing leadership but that leadership is notably tolerant of dissent - there is virtually no effort to nudge local parties into choosing the right sort of candidates (which I've seen throughout the previous 45 years).
    Well obviously the party needs people like Big G to win but that makes him a Tory leaning swing voter rather than a Tory loyalist.

    Try asking a Corbynista whether a Labour voter who voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 is a Labour loyalist and wait for the reaction!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,569
    HYUFD said:

    Boris leads the latest ConHome polling, he is not going anywhere whatever you may wish for
    Survey! SURVEY!! Not polling! It's about as scientific as the average book by Richard Dawkins and probably less accurate.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099

    Unlikely that involves real work
    And unpaid
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,275
    HYUFD said:

    Well obviously the party needs people like Big G to win but that makes him a Tory leaning swing voter rather than a Tory loyalist.

    Try asking a Corbynista whether a Labour voter who voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 is a Labour loyalist and wait for the reaction!
    Historically it is winning the centre ground (as Cameron and Blair did) that delivers majorities. Whether that remains true in the next election is not yet clear, but If Tories want to win, they should listen to BG.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,332
    HYUFD said:



    Boris leads the latest ConHome polling, he is not going anywhere whatever you may wish for

    You need to stop swinging off Johnson's nuts. It's over.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,569
    Dura_Ace said:

    You need to stop swinging off Johnson's nuts. It's over.
    Sir please! No monkey business before 9...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Dura_Ace said:

    You need to stop swinging off Johnson's nuts. It's over.
    I dunno - it sounds like an entirely appropriate treatment.
  • OchEyeOchEye Posts: 1,469
    GIN1138 said:

    We wait to find out how much DM readers turn against the Mail...
    According to the recent reports, the DM has lost 50% of its readership in the past 10 years, down to just over a million a day now. Of course most of the other papers are in the last chance saloon with near terminal levels of confirmed paid readership. Went into my local papershop to get some milk the other evening and the large amount of dailies still on the shelves was depressing, and from chatting to the shop's owner, discovered that his order from the distributor was much reduced. While from a dozen or so newspaper delivery "boys", twice daily, now has only 3, once a day
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    Dura_Ace said:

    You need to stop swinging off Johnson's nuts. It's over.
    Even Johnson recognises that his chances are in the past.

    That however will not stop Conhome including him in surveys or Pollsters including him in polls.

    It just distorts the figures of those who are more likely to stand / be selected as the last two by the PCP.
  • Jonathan said:

    First a pig, then the country, now the world.

    Where to send him? France?
    They can teach him the proper purpose of charcuterie.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    L

    The disagreement on thge facts is odd. Crouch clearly suggests that a decision was taken to introduce the change this month. May's frosty reply to her quite friendly letter says flatly that it's not the case. I suppose it's one of those cases where a decision is made in verbal discussion and subsequently overridden. But why May allowed it to become a major issue is really baffling.
    Sadly it’s one of the more miserable trends of the modern age that gentlemen’s/ladies’ agreements are seemingly no longer to be relied upon. It’s a shame, but there it is.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,705
    OchEye said:

    According to the recent reports, the DM has lost 50% of its readership in the past 10 years, down to just over a million a day now. Of course most of the other papers are in the last chance saloon with near terminal levels of confirmed paid readership. Went into my local papershop to get some milk the other evening and the large amount of dailies still on the shelves was depressing, and from chatting to the shop's owner, discovered that his order from the distributor was much reduced. While from a dozen or so newspaper delivery "boys", twice daily, now has only 3, once a day
    Printed papers are suffering the same business pressures as many High Street shops. Competition that wasn't there 15 years ago.
  • HYUFD said:

    ConHome got the 2005 Tory leadership election spot on./
    13 years ago? That recently?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    HYUFD said:



    Well obviously the party needs people like Big G to win but that makes him a Tory leaning swing voter rather than a Tory loyalist.

    Try asking a Corbynista whether a Labour voter who voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 is a Labour loyalist and wait for the reaction!

    Well, true.

    I suppose my question to you is what you're really getting with someone like Boris. I voted for Corbyn because I felt that we needed a fresh injection of idealism (combined with personal civility and respect). I can see why you might favour, say, David Davis or even Rees-Mogg for the same sort of reasons. But with Boris you simultaneously alienate voters like BigG and fail to get a leader who you can rely on to believe anything in particular.

    At a more tactical level, I'm not sure that it's worth you and BigG fighting it out here (nobody's going to win!), but that's a matter for you, of course.
  • HYUFD said:

    Boris leads the latest ConHome polling, he is not going anywhere whatever you may wish for
    I agree he’s not going anywhere.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    I agree he’s not going anywhere.
    lol
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Foxy said:

    Shouldn't they be catching burglars?

    Or is time on "hate crime" fine and dandy when leftists are on the receiving end?
    If it’s about a woman on LBC describing how she was kicked and wrestled to the ground for being Jewish . Then that most certainly hits the criteria of a crime that should be investigated.
  • Crouch points the finger at Hammond:

    "In a parting shot she accused other ministers of delaying the cut in the maximum stakes after making "commitments" to MPs with "registered interests", a reference to MPs who have received donations from the gambling industry. Friends of Ms Crouch told The Telegraph that her comments were directed at Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, and Jeremy Wright, the Culture Secretary."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/01/tracey-crouch-has-quit-government-delay-slashing-stakes-crack/

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    Well, true.

    I suppose my question to you is what you're really getting with someone like Boris. I voted for Corbyn because I felt that we needed a fresh injection of idealism (combined with personal civility and respect). I can see why you might favour, say, David Davis or even Rees-Mogg for the same sort of reasons. But with Boris you simultaneously alienate voters like BigG and fail to get a leader who you can rely on to believe anything in particular.

    At a more tactical level, I'm not sure that it's worth you and BigG fighting it out here (nobody's going to win!), but that's a matter for you, of course.
    Personal civility and respect.. you mean the sort of civility and respect Corbyn give to jews?
  • HYUFD said:

    Well obviously but that does not change the fact BigG voted Labour in 1997 and 2001 so he is not the ultra party loyalist he sometimes claims to be.

    Plus Corbyn and Momentum are changing the game somewhat from the days of New Labour
    Many conservatives voted for Blair in those years. Sometimes a government is exhausted and in those circumstances blind loyalty leads into a cul de sac
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,720
    HYUFD said:

    Well obviously the party needs people like Big G to win but that makes him a Tory leaning swing voter rather than a Tory loyalist.

    Try asking a Corbynista whether a Labour voter who voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 is a Labour loyalist and wait for the reaction!
    Is that the bar we are setting ourselves? To be like Corbynistas?
  • The disagreement on thge facts is odd. Crouch clearly suggests that a decision was taken to introduce the change this month. May's frosty reply to her quite friendly letter says flatly that it's not the case. I suppose it's one of those cases where a decision is made in verbal discussion and subsequently overridden. But why May allowed it to become a major issue is really baffling.
    You don't think there is some possibility that Mrs is being dishonest about this, do you?

    Or perhaps it has something to do with the number of MPs who represent bookmakers' interests? Incidentally, if I am not ,mistaken my own MP, Laurence Robertson, is one of these.

    Anyway it's nice to hear from you again, Nick. I have now finally completed my move from the smoke and am settling down in deepest Gloucestershire, not a million miles from the world's greatest sporting venue. Have yet to unpack, but all that can follow in due course and in plenty of time for the Open Meeting.

    We must meet and catch up some time, but until then, toodle pip, and warm regards.

    PtP
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    philiph said:

    Even Johnson recognises that his chances are in the past.

    That however will not stop Conhome including him in surveys or Pollsters including him in polls.

    It just distorts the figures of those who are more likely to stand / be selected as the last two by the PCP.
    I don't think he does. I interpret Johnsons remarks as him biding his time, let someone else deal with Brexit and he can then sail in and take the top job.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,782
    Following on our discussion of high streets yesterday, it's grim in Grimsby...
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46059306
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    Good article on how the UK government trashed the relationship with Ireland, which should be the UK's ally in the EU because of a common interest in limiting the damage of Brexit.

    https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1058273709771890688
  • HYUFD said:

    Well obviously the party needs people like Big G to win but that makes him a Tory leaning swing voter rather than a Tory loyalist.

    Try asking a Corbynista whether a Labour voter who voted for Cameron in 2010 and 2015 is a Labour loyalist and wait for the reaction!
    Just stop this now. I am no swing voter and my work for the party over 55 years speaks for itself.

    You seem intent to belittle my work for the party and it demeans you
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    notme said:

    If it’s about a woman on LBC describing how she was kicked and wrestled to the ground for being Jewish . Then that most certainly hits the criteria of a crime that should be investigated.
    If it is the recent incident where the woman's phone got robbed as well she was attacked by someone from outside the event she was protesting so it isn't even anything to do with the Labour party.

    On the general issue more than happy for the police to handle this stuff*, they won't press any charges without evidence and it can't be put down to some conspiracy of the Labour leadership if they don't.

    *Assuming they are only investigating serious incidents, they really would have better stuff to do than deal with every minor detail of Labours factional disputes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099
    ydoethur said:

    Survey! SURVEY!! Not polling! It's about as scientific as the average book by Richard Dawkins and probably less accurate.
    So how do you explain Mogg leading Yougov of Tory members then?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099
    Foxy said:

    Historically it is winning the centre ground (as Cameron and Blair did) that delivers majorities. Whether that remains true in the next election is not yet clear, but If Tories want to win, they should listen to BG.

    Thatcher and Attlee moved the centre ground their way and won
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099

    13 years ago? That recently?
    There have been no Tory membership votes on the leadership since
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    philiph said:

    Even Johnson recognises that his chances are in the past.

    This is the moment BoZo knew he had blown it

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433?lang=en

    Chickened out of standing for leader, made no effort as Foreign secretary, scared to run next time.

    If only he had submitted the other column...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099

    Well, true.

    I suppose my question to you is what you're really getting with someone like Boris. I voted for Corbyn because I felt that we needed a fresh injection of idealism (combined with personal civility and respect). I can see why you might favour, say, David Davis or even Rees-Mogg for the same sort of reasons. But with Boris you simultaneously alienate voters like BigG and fail to get a leader who you can rely on to believe anything in particular.

    At a more tactical level, I'm not sure that it's worth you and BigG fighting it out here (nobody's going to win!), but that's a matter for you, of course.
    Boris has charisma and an election winning record, Davis and Mogg do not.

    As I have said I prefer May for now to get a Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period Boris for 2022
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,099

    Just stop this now. I am no swing voter and my work for the party over 55 years speaks for itself.

    You seem intent to belittle my work for the party and it demeans you
    You voted Labour in 1997 and 2001 NOT Tory you are therefore not a Tory core voter and would have been classed on canvass sheets as a possible at best then
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,275
    notme said:

    If it’s about a woman on LBC describing how she was kicked and wrestled to the ground for being Jewish . Then that most certainly hits the criteria of a crime that should be investigated.
    Sounds like common assault to me. Certainly worth investigating, whether it was because she was Jewish or not.

    Personally, I dislike the concept of "hate crimes" getting beaten up should be the same crime for everyone, though I think it reasonable to consider motivation when deciding sentencing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,275
    HYUFD said:

    Thatcher and Attlee moved the centre ground their way and won
    I cannot see Mogg doing that!
  • Scott_P said:
    The 16/1 looks fair value. Given the possibility of extreme turbulence you can easily imagine how he might be brought back in that timeframe to help steady the ship. It looks more like a 5/1 shot to me given that he has apparently indicated that he is interested.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    The 16/1 looks fair value. Given the possibility of extreme turbulence you can easily imagine how he might be brought back in that timeframe to help steady the ship. It looks more like a 5/1 shot to me given that he has apparently indicated that he is interested.
    Are you assuming May or someone else as leader when considering it to be more like a 5/1 shot?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Scott_P said:

    This is the moment BoZo knew he had blown it

    https://twitter.com/brianspanner1/status/746488316510482433?lang=en

    Chickened out of standing for leader, made no effort as Foreign secretary, scared to run next time.

    If only he had submitted the other column...
    Boris' record is twice London Mayor, and the man who got Brexit over the line. I'm not sure being PM would add much to that...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,569
    HYUFD said:

    So how do you explain Mogg leading Yougov of Tory members then?

    I am not interested in or concerned with other sources of information. I am pointing out that you are building a case by claiming a source of information as reliable, useful and accurate when it is not. You do it far too often and it is not only stupid, but dishonest.

    (Even if I did accept your claim, which I note you don't link to, it falls for three other reasons: (1) Yougov's panels are also self selected and will not be representative, nor are they large enough to draw reliable data from in this case (2) there is no point in having a poll until we know the candidates, and there is no reason to think Mogg will be one (3) even if those are set aside and I accepted the findings it would contradict your own point by showing Boris is not in fact the most popular figure.)
  • HYUFD said:

    You voted Labour in 1997 and 2001 NOT Tory you are therefore not a Tory core voter and would have been classed on canvass sheets as a possible at best then
    This is nonsense. The ballot is secret so no one knew who I voted for in 97 and 01.

    I think my association would be open mouthed in astonishment if they read your open attack on my party credentials and I know whose side they would be on
  • kle4 said:

    Are you assuming May or someone else as leader when considering it to be more like a 5/1 shot?
    Yes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Boris' record is twice London Mayor, and the man who got Brexit over the line. I'm not sure being PM would add much to that...

    Getting Brexit over the line is the albatross round his neck.

    That's the shameful part of his record he desperately wants to expunge
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,720

    This is nonsense. The ballot is secret so no one knew who I voted for in 97 and 01.

    I think my association would be open mouthed in astonishment if they read your open attack on my party credentials and I know whose side they would be on
    Big G I wouldn't take an exchange on an internet chatroom (even one as illustrious, influential and important as PB [hi Mike]) as a meaningful attack on you or your beliefs. It is of course entirely up to HYUFD to make all kinds of assertions based upon his beliefs, but unless I am mistaken, you have been alive longer than him so you were a Tory BEFORE HE WAS EVEN BORN OR AT LEAST HAD A POLITICAL OPINION and hence when he was in the womb, and thereafter when he was asking for sherbert dabs at the sweet shop, You Were a Tory.

    Always remember that; you outrank him.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    The 16/1 looks fair value. Given the possibility of extreme turbulence you can easily imagine how he might be brought back in that timeframe to help steady the ship. It looks more like a 5/1 shot to me given that he has apparently indicated that he is interested.
    Not amongst the specials, well "To be next Foreign Secretary - 50/1" but doesn't appeal.
  • TOPPING said:

    Big G I wouldn't take an exchange on an internet chatroom (even one as illustrious, influential and important as PB [hi Mike]) as a meaningful attack on you or your beliefs. It is of course entirely up to HYUFD to make all kinds of assertions based upon his beliefs, but unless I am mistaken, you have been alive longer than him so you were a Tory BEFORE HE WAS EVEN BORN OR AT LEAST HAD A POLITICAL OPINION and hence when he was in the womb, and thereafter when he was asking for sherbert dabs at the sweet shop, You Were a Tory.

    Always remember that; you outrank him.
    +1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Pulpstar said:

    Not amongst the specials, well "To be next Foreign Secretary - 50/1" but doesn't appeal.
    Noone replying on twitter seems to have tried to get on the bet so far as I can tell.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    The disagreement on thge facts is odd. Crouch clearly suggests that a decision was taken to introduce the change this month. May's frosty reply to her quite friendly letter says flatly that it's not the case. I suppose it's one of those cases where a decision is made in verbal discussion and subsequently overridden. But why May allowed it to become a major issue is really baffling.
    "Nothing has changed" seems to be May's mantra at this point
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Is David Cameron going to become the new David Miliband?
  • Dave isn’t coming back.

    His friend has gotten hold of the wrong end of the stick.
  • Obviously I’d eat pineapple on pizza every day if it meant Dave becoming PM again but it ain’t happening.

    His time has been and gone, sadly.
  • JenSJenS Posts: 91
    £50 note field narrowed down to a scientist or a mathematician I see -
    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2018/november/think-science-for-the-next-50-character

    Suggests that the Turing and Lovelace backers in the thread a while back were, ahem, on the money...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JenS said:

    £50 note field narrowed down to a scientist or a mathematician I see -
    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2018/november/think-science-for-the-next-50-character

    Suggests that the Turing and Lovelace backers in the thread a while back were, ahem, on the money...

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1058296741810917377
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,686
    edited November 2018
    JenS said:

    £50 note field narrowed down to a scientist or a mathematician I see -
    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2018/november/think-science-for-the-next-50-character

    Suggests that the Turing and Lovelace backers in the thread a while back were, ahem, on the money...

    Gordon Bennett does this mean I’ll have won three 33/1 tips at Ladbrokes this year?

    I’m going to be even more smug and unbearable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Dave isn’t coming back.

    His friend has gotten hold of the wrong end of the stick.

    It looked like a weak story. Maybe in 10 years.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    JenS said:

    £50 note field narrowed down to a scientist or a mathematician I see -
    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2018/november/think-science-for-the-next-50-character

    Suggests that the Turing and Lovelace backers in the thread a while back were, ahem, on the money...

    The fact that Hammond mentioned Lovelace in his Budget speech may, possibly, be a clue. I didn’t hear him mention Turing but I may have missed that.
  • JenS said:

    £50 note field narrowed down to a scientist or a mathematician I see -
    https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2018/november/think-science-for-the-next-50-character

    Suggests that the Turing and Lovelace backers in the thread a while back were, ahem, on the money...

    It occurred to me after the last discussion of this subject that if the Bank of England wanted to honour a great Briton, no one would have been more suitable given the users of £50 notes than John Macadam.
  • It occurred to me after the last discussion of this subject that if the Bank of England wanted to honour a great Briton, no one would have been more suitable given the users of £50 notes than John Macadam.
    On that basis, Charles Romley Alder Wright.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651

    +1
    I’ve said this before but BigG seems to me to represent the best sort of Conservatism. The Tory party could do with having more people like him in it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    edited November 2018

    It occurred to me after the last discussion of this subject that if the Bank of England wanted to honour a great Briton, no one would have been more suitable given the users of £50 notes than John Macadam.
    EDIT: wrong person!
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    For anyone who wants to see the greatest band ever, The Specials are touring next year in April and May. The tour will sellout quickly and this may the last chance to see them.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Foxy said:

    Sounds like common assault to me. Certainly worth investigating, whether it was because she was Jewish or not.

    Personally, I dislike the concept of "hate crimes" getting beaten up should be the same crime for everyone, though I think it reasonable to consider motivation when deciding sentencing.
    I concur. And I would entirely remove the extension of the blasphemy laws in the 2010 equalities act.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Yes.
    The bet is now up, was able to boost it to 18-1.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Obviously I’d eat pineapple on pizza every day if it meant Dave becoming PM again but it ain’t happening.

    His time has been and gone, sadly.

    Is he getting bored shooting foxes ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    This LDs in cash trouble story - I thought their membership had surged since the referendum, shouldn't that have given a boost to their finances?
  • Boris' record is twice London Mayor, and the man who got Brexit over the line. I'm not sure being PM would add much to that...
    Cancelling the Thames Gateway Bridge linking northeast London with southeast London?
  • Nigelb said:

    Following on our discussion of high streets yesterday, it's grim in Grimsby...
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46059306


    The report also considered pubs and bars as being good for people, because they are centres for social interaction.

    That's just weird. What kind of Royal Society for Public Health treats addictive poisons as a public good?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    kle4 said:

    It looked like a weak story. Maybe in 10 years.
    I reckon Blair is more likely......
This discussion has been closed.