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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part tw
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. US midterms special (part two) with Ariel Edwards-Levy
As part of the Polling Matters mini-series on the US midterms, Keiran Pedley talks to Ariel Edwards-Levy of The Huffington Post.
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The former PM is hoping for a Cabinet recall after a new Tory leader succeeds Theresa May.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7639377/david-cameron-return-to-politics/#Echobox=1541110199
In a separate development, the ex-Tory boss’s old nemesis Boris Johnson has also told his friends he has given up hope of becoming the next Tory leader.
But Boris still hopes to be “in the mix” for a Cabinet job under Mrs May’s successor.
Political friends say the former London Mayor is unlikely to even enter the next leadership race.
One said: “If Boris think the chances are against him, he won’t go for it. He deosn’t want to be humiliated by coming fourth or fifth”.
rcs1000: Yes, father.
Mikus Smithsonius: You will not be Moderator.
rcs1000: Which wiser, older man is to take my place?
Mikus Smithsonius: My powers will pass to TSE, to hold in trust until the forum is ready to rule once more. PB is to be a republic again.
rcs1000: TSE?
Mikus Smithsonius: Yes.
[Mikus Smithsonius tries to comfort rcs1000 by reaching out his hand to touch him on the face but rcs1000 pulls his head away from Mikus Smithsonius' hand in disgust]
Mikus Smithsonius: My decision disappoints you?
rcs1000: You wrote to me once, listing the four chief virtues: Wisdom, justice, fortitude and temperance. As I read the list, I knew I had none of them. But I have other virtues, father. Ambition. That can be a virtue when it drives us to excel. Resourcefulness, courage, perhaps not on Youtube, but... there are many forms of courage. Devotion, to my family and to you. But none of my virtues were on your list. Even then it was as if you didn't want me for your son.
Mikus Smithsonius: Oh, rcs1000. You go too far.
rcs1000: I search the faces of the gods... for ways to please you, to make you proud. One kind word, one full hug... where you pressed me to your chest and held me tight. Would have been like the sun on my heart for a thousand years. What is it in me that you hate so much?
Mikus Smithsonius: Shh, rcs1000.
rcs1000: All I've ever wanted was to live up to you, OGH. Father.
Mikus Smithsonius: [gets down on his knees] rcs1000, your faults as a son is my failure as a father.
[Mikus opens up his arms to rcs1000 and gives him a hug]
rcs1000: [Commodus hugs Mikus and cries] Father. I would have Brexit the whole world... if you would only love me!
[rcs1000 then goes off to unplug every single one of the PB servers...]
But it would be way too soon as we are still in the middle of the divisive event which torpedoed Cameron's premiership and will be right in the thick of it for years to come (so even the 'some time after his memoirs are published' is suggesting way too soon I would think. Plus Foreign Secretary would just be silly. But he is young enough that if he wanted he could come back in 10 years or something.
But it looks like a weak story anyway.
I'd presume if and when he comes back it'd be through a peerage? Jumping the queue ahead of Major, Blair and Brown though (in fairness I do not know if any of those would want a peerage).
Hovland refused to block the law’s application to these unlucky voters and their tribe, Spirit Lake. Hovland conceded that their claims gave him “great cause for concern.” But he cited the Supreme Court’s Purcell principle, which warns lower courts not to alter voting laws shortly before an election due to the risk of voter confusion. In a jab at the 8th Circuit, Hovland noted that the problems highlighted in this lawsuit “were clearly predictable and certain to occur.” Yet because early voting has already begun—and the election is five days away—Hovland concluded that a new injunction “will create as much confusion as it will alleviate
He has done enough harm. RIP. No flowers.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/11/conhomes-survey-davis-tears-a-chunk-off-johnson-who-now-leads-javid-by-less-than-a-point.html
Tory MPs get to do that, that's why Boris is buggered.
'The friend who the ex-PM confided in said he is now “bored s***less”, two years on from walking out of No10 and then resigning as an MP....The source said: “David is dedicated to public service, and has often said he wouldn’t rule out a public role one day, domestically or internationally.
“But he is only 52, and still a young man.'
If a few Blairites leave the party if Boris or Mogg become leader for the LDs it might give them a bit of much needed publicity but not much more than that
https://www.facebook.com/DavidCameronOfficial
I am going nowhere and neither is Boris. He is finished and I resent your arrogant nonsense about my politics and reference to liberals
You would have the party led by a group that would destroy it
The fact you voted Labour in 1997 and 2001 is a statement of fact, the Tories won 30% in 1997 and 31% in 2001. Given the Tories got 42% in 2017 you could say you make up only a minority of about 1/4 of the current Tory vote ie those who voted for Blair but have switched to the Tories to vote for Cameron and May, you are therefore in the minority rather than the majority of the party's vote.
It is also a bit rich to complain of people wishing to 'destroy' the party when you did not even vote for the party in at least 2 general elections, those who loyally stuck to the party through bad times as well as good may I suggest have more grounds to lecture on that front
Until recently you accepted Boris was over but your obsession with polls and surveys clouds even sensible debate. And to try to make out you are a superior conservative to my views is beyond arrogance. I was asked to be a conservative councillor in 1967 and even recently have been asked to consider the Welsh Assembly but of course that boat has sailed. I fought every GE for the party throughout the sixties, seventies and eighties, and was David Jones personal driver in 2010.
When are you going to return to championing the prevention of no deal which you were recently until you fell under Boris spell again and realise some of us in the party do not share your views
I have no doubt you lean more to the Tory side than the Labour side and as I said before respect your past service to the party but the fact you voted for Blair in 1997 and 2001 and New Labour shows you are very much on the left of the party, as confirmed by your Remain vote too, the majority of the party membership is both more rightwing than you are and more pro Leave and on that basis you cannot dismiss Boris
Remember what Clarke said at PMQs on his final day - he's the best performer there has been in his entire time as an MP - in a completely different league to anyone else around today.
His electoral record in terms of MPs gained in 2010 and expectations in 2015 is also outstanding.
If he did become Foreign Secretary he would then be hot favourite for next PM.
I wish she were my MP so I could vote for her.
It's a shame this has to be mentioned yet again, but ConHome surveys are not polls.
How exactly is he going to be in the HoC to be Foreign Secretary? Or does he think he can do it from the Lords? I doubt the hard grind between him & the job (and no guarantee of getting it) are his cup of tea.
On the Crouch resignation I suspect; i) The govt did not want (any more) headlines over job losses in April 2019 so shunted it back 6 months, ii) Crouch did a 'do it in April or I quit' iii) Pour encourage les autres May said 'there's the door'.
If the decision had been to delay 'indefinitely' or for '18 months' I could understand it, but over a 6 month delay seems a tad excessive. Perhaps Ms Crouch overplayed her hand and backed herself into a corner.
Boris will not stand at GE2020 and has risen as far as he will ever rise in politics. As Lilian Bayliss of the Old Vic once observed to an aspiring actress; 'Well, you had your chance my dear, and you've muffed it'
It's an interesting site, but their poll respondents are definitely on the UKIP/Hard Brexit wing of the party.
Accuracy really isn't your thing.
*innocent face*
It was an easy win for the Govt, and to borrow Carlotta's phrase, they muffed it.
The industry have known for at least a year that limiting the stake was under consideration. I see no justifiable defence for the delay. I am incredibly annoyed at the Govt., and full of admiration for Crouch.
https://en.oxforddictionaries.com/punctuation/apostrophe
But it definitely isn’t Sander’s
One thing that's striking to me on Presidents is that, at least since WWII and perhaps before that, successful Democratic candidates tend to be younger and Republicans older.
Of the 14 Presidents from FDR onwards, Democrats make up the 5 youngest and Republicans the 5 oldest. The two who are out of order are Truman and Johnson, who of course both served as VP before and became President through a death.
Does that have any relevance for 2020? Perhaps makes me just a bit more cautious on the idea that Biden and Warren are such frontrunners...
Crouch resignation and FOBT-gate may have been due to the government's fear of Brexit-adjacent job losses but we should perhaps also wonder about Esther McVey, whose partner is the bookmakers' friend, Philip Davies, and who is said to have led the move in the spring to delay the stakes cut. Did the Prime Minister in effect have to choose which minister was the more disposable?
Agree the McVey issue may have been a factor - Crouch alluded to it in her resignation letter.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8xjwmp/what-it-feels-like-to-be-disenfranchised-by-a-voter-id-law
Where to send him? France?
Until the 1940s it wasn't that unusual for ex-PMs to stay on in politics - Chamberlain, Baldwin, Macdonanld and Balfour all did (Balfour for 24 years under three Prime Ministers). Heath would probably have taken the Foreign Office if Thatcher had offered it to him. In the 19th century it was actually quite unusual for living and healthy ex-PMs not to serve under their successors.
Since then the issue has generally been that they left office under a cloud having quarelled with their successor. But I also think that with the modern political system isn't terribly sympathetic to people with alternative power bases and a sense of their time having passed.
I can't see Cameron coming back absent a war for those reasons.
Chongqing bus plunge caused by fight between driver and passenger
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-46068412
See the nation's principal organ of record, the Times pb:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/05/27/esther-mcveys-betting-problem-is-why-im-taking-the-20-1-on-her-as-next-out-of-the-cabinet/
The Dreadnought program has been in full swing for a year and is 660m over budget. That feels like a good performance (compared to QEC and Typhoon) to me.
Not a good day for her chances yesterday.
Im afarid he's had his time in politics and should look for something else to do.