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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Most current polling movement is between CON and UKIP with
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Most current polling movement is between CON and UKIP with LAB and LD relatively stable
Each week, as we know, YouGov carries out four polls for the Sun and one for its News International stable-mate, the Sunday Times. The result is a mass of polling data that sometimes it is hard to see the big picture.
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Lab 24%
UKIP 7%
LD 6%
No Tory figure given.
About 85% recovered from Burns Night on Saturday .... will probably achieve full operation mode by February !!
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins
BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
Chris Deerin@chrisdeerin2 mins
Worth remembering re 50p tax that it was pre-election stunt by Brown to screw the Tories. Never was economic rationale behind it. Same again
There's a world of difference between that and saying someone wants your kids to die.
For the moment.
I expect that to change as GE2015 approaches.
Worth reproducing this from yesterday in light of that polling.
I can't remember your exact words but they were to the effect of "no LD voter wants power". I take issue with this - in their own terms they want the power either to register their dissatisfaction with the existing political environment or the power to change or mitigate it or the power to say, tangibly, "something's got to change."
And in this, they have been successful so yes, it is power they wanted and power they got. They now have to decide whether it is all they wanted.
To start I suggest you look at the series of farces and resignations that wracked the tory party treasury after Ashcroft which directly impacts their ability to raise funds. That's even before taking into account the increasing influence of what Ashcroft is now doing which is by no means always what Cameron wants. Then tell me that having two shadow cabinet members quit from little Ed's cabinet, SLAB made to look completely clueless and out of the loop and a possible complete rethink of how labour are funded is no effect from Falkirk. Finally the Rennard debacle is not even close to being over. As he himself has made abundantly clear.
Very little change, really. UKIP slightly down, Conservatives slightly up, the others basically the same.
Mr. M, I expect comprehensive reports filled with wit and insight.
Mr. Scrapheap, this Hound fellow sounds like an utter arse. He should be made to withdraw the remark. And those comparing it to Clarkson's comment should know better. Clarkson called Brown an idiot (the one-eyed bit was factually accurate, but crude). He did not accuse Brown of wanting children to die. Clarkson was also not standing for office.
I'm going to sue the BBC. No, not for Hound's remarks, but for using a picture of me with a suntan without my permission. Grrrr... No, actually, ugggg...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25885519
"Education, the NHS and local planning controversies are the ones I get all the time. "
Interesting Nick. What are your doorstep people saying about education?
Something entirely local, or something relating to national patterns?
That said, after Clarkson's comment (not the Brown-idiot, the shooting people for striking one) I think a QI episode he was to appear on was pulled from broadcast.
The BBC is not directly involved here because, as you say, the comments were made online (and not on a BBC site). However, a man accusing the PM of apparently wanting children to die is far more serious (especially given it seems to be genuine rather than Clarkson's blatant mockery).
Personally I think he should be fired from some sort of giant cannon into the heart of the sun.
The Rennard story is far from over, and given how low the LDs are at the mo it's hard to see how much more VI can shift to Lab, but didn't we see a bit of a jump recently?
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/decision-to-let-mike-hancock-stay-causes-rumpus-1-5835054
"‘I’m personally ashamed when I see good friends and colleagues from other ends of the country saying “this was a disgraceful decision”.’"
BBC are carrying it too.
He is also having far too little sleep.
Perhaps Charles or RN could arrange a visit to Cousin Seth for him before he cracks up totally.
I've heard of him as I (drum rolls) listen to the BBC. Particularly Radio 4.
Obviously he's never been heard of to such an extent that he was on, and won, last year's Celebrity Come Dancing Christmas Special, just a month ago. Broadcast on the BBC.
Yes, a total non-entity.
Ian Birrell@ianbirrell5 mins
Another 'comedian' climbing on Brand's bandwagon. @RufusHound is offensive, wrong & stupid in one short piece http://rufushound.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/david-and-jeremy-want-your-kids-to-die-unless-youre-rich/ …
Robbie Gibb@RobbieGibb60 secs
Today's #bbcdp - floods, regulations, housing, NHS Action party, feminism & which party is best for business? With @jo_coburn - 12pm BBC2
And you must admit that comment is fairly hideous.
Avery's problem is that having set himself up as an proponent of Osborne's 100% perfection he is now reduced to pretending inconvenient things don't exist or 'proving' some 2+2=5 meanderings.
It makes you wonder how easily politicians might lose touch with the real world with their tendancy to surround themselves with sycophants and not do any research for themselves.
Tell me, what do you find so acceptable of the following chain of events?
Eric "You can't touch me, I'm an MP!" Joyce resigns after assault charges.
Karie Murphy announces she wants to be the candidate to replace Eric
Stevie Deans is elected chariman of the Falkirk Labour party
Karie Murphy and Stevie Deans recruit lots of new local members, many of whom didn't even know...
Ed suspends the Falkirk selection, and following Henry Smith MP (Tory), reports the fiasco to the police.
Stevie Deans was then suspended from his job at Grangemouth for fixing Labour's Falkirk vote on company time (when he was supposed to be working)
Unite bosses threatened a "leverage" programme of rolling closures and strikes
Unite then threatened to boycott Labour conference, unless Ed Miliband cleared them of wrongdoing and restarted the Falkirk selection
Ed caves in and clears Unite
Unite's strike threats lead to the closure of Grangemouth, with the loss of 800 jobs
Not only 800 jobs but roughly 8% of the Scottish manufacturing base.
At the last minute Unite admit defeat and the 800 jobs are saved
As a result of internal investigations at Grangemouth. Emails were leaked, suggesting a conspiracy by Unite officials to change evidence
I've never bought into the argument of two polarised blocs of opinion - I suspect it's nowhere near as simple as that. My methodology assumes half the UKIP vote will break for the Conservatives so yesterday's Com Res would give the Conservatives a four-point lead while today's YouGov puts the Tories three in front.
That of course is based on the assumption that, as happened with the Liberal/LD vote in the past, a large part of the midterm protest vote will run back to its former home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder but of course we don't know that for sure with UKIP and therein lies one of the many issues facing those trying to predict 2015.
And he won another BBC dance contest in 2010.
As I said, a total non-entity.
nɒˈnɛntɪti/
noun
1. a person or thing with no special or interesting qualities; an unimportant person or thing.'
As I said, no contradiction.
So what has irritated you to the point whereby you have forsaken the best alternative possible (obtainable now) for the best possible alternative (unobtainable right now)?
Or are you playing the long game?
Surely that shows that there need to be a root-and-branch reform of who they allow on their shows? I think you and SO should be put on a special committee to grant people 'entity' and 'non-entity' status.
Or perhaps you are both wrong ...
Forecasts are forecasts. They are often wrong. And it's pretty common that there is one line deep in a model that throws out a slightly bizarre number anyway.
Taking as an example the December IPSOS/MORI numbers and applying the above, you'd have the Conservatives and Labour level on 37 (allowing for your argument, we'll make it 38/37 in Labour's favour) which would again be much better for Labour overall.
Once again, we don't know what will happen - will the UKIP vote a) stay with UKIP b) stay at home or c) return to old loyalties ? We can't answer that yet - this time next year, we may have a better idea.
We also don't know if the current Labour vote (solid as it is) is the party's potential maximum. What we do know is that IF Labour polls in the range 37-40% in 2015 it becomes almost impossible for the Conservatives to achieve an overall majority.
The point is that in the current climate ("they're all awful") individual scandals don't really affect VI. However they can have material impacts on process points:
eg:
- Falkirk: damaged SLAB, may damage Labour's union funding
- Flowers: likely to damage Labour's Coop funding
- Rennard: may impact on LD activist morale
- Hancock: may reinforce Rennard impact
All of these could be important come GE15, but probably won't show up in VI polling
If I remember rightly, Cameron has lost one of his children; how many children has Mr Hound watched die?
For the avoidance of doubt, my personal opinion is that winning some celebrity dance bollox doesn't confer specialness or importance upon someone, your personal opinion appears to differ on that. I'm entirely comfortable with that, you, apparently, not so much.
Had Brown not held up a sizeable Scottish vote they could have been much lower.
But in a way that is even worse in terms of seats, since if Labour drops in Scotland those seats are heading to the SNP - one or two Conservative gains at the most. Labour doing even better in Scotland and worse in England and Wales would be better for Dave, instead it is the other way round.
It would be interesting to know who you'd consider as being 'entities'.
No more vacuous, meaningless and irritating statement than someone "sharing your frustration".
There's a lot of talk among the Conservative-inclined on here about getting the Labour number down - what matters is getting the Conservative vote share higher. Polling in the 30-35% range isn't good enough - the party needs to be over 40%. The last four majorities (up to and including 1992) came with shares over 40%. Labour can win a majority by polling 36-38% - the Conservatives can't at present.
Similarly, many more people will notice prices that have gone up than those which have come down and our media are focussed that way too. We may well have a situation where the vast majority of people are in fact better off than they are now by the election (albeit worse off than they were in 2010) but think that they are worse off.
The evidence that politicians and governments get much credit for good past economic performance is somewhat sparse. More important is peoples' perception of how they are likely to perform in the future. This is of course entirely right.
Although he appears to have adopted his porn name for commercial purposes (name of first pet followed by type of pet .. which make his porn tastes rather "exotic")
Does that make me a bad person?
Maybe Young included 'BBC' in the headline as a dig to associate them with the disgusting comments, but don't let that overshadow what an appalling thing has been said.
I hope Hound makes a public apology and steps down from the euro election
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100256663/bbc-comedian-says-cameron-wants-your-kids-to-die/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25910853
Anyone describing Strictly Come Dancing as bollox, well you need to be educated by me on your mistake, before you know it, you'll be saying Hannibal is superior to Caesar.
The phrase that really got on my nerves was "We're helping hard working families"
What about the hard working singletons?
OMG - I'm channelling Bridget Jones.