politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Most current polling movement is between CON and UKIP with LAB and LD relatively stable
Each week, as we know, YouGov carries out four polls for the Sun and one for its News International stable-mate, the Sunday Times. The result is a mass of polling data that sometimes it is hard to see the big picture.
It is not as if the tories and UKIP are oscillating wildly either. Indeed what these useful averages show is that the last 5-6 weeks have been a period of remarkable stability. From the tory perspective this remains a worry. There has been a lot of good economic news in that time with better growth forecasts and a dramatic reduction in unemployment but so far there is no sign at all that it is making any difference.
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
Chris Deerin@chrisdeerin2 mins Worth remembering re 50p tax that it was pre-election stunt by Brown to screw the Tories. Never was economic rationale behind it. Same again
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
I note that Rennard Gate has had no effect - as I predicted. And despite the usual wishful thinking from many on here. Each party has now had a 'scandal' that has made no difference - Ashcroft, Falkirk, Rennard. All are scandals only in the sense the entertain political obsessives while the general public say, erm, what?
It is not as if the tories and UKIP are oscillating wildly either. Indeed what these useful averages show is that the last 5-6 weeks have been a period of remarkable stability. From the tory perspective this remains a worry. There has been a lot of good economic news in that time with better growth forecasts and a dramatic reduction in unemployment but so far there is no sign at all that it is making any difference.
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
Tractor stats don't shift votes; experiences and perceptions do. The Tories need the improving economy to deliver for ordinary punters. So far, that's not really happening to any great extent.
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
"You mean the one-eyes Scottish idiot?" Well, two parts of that are undoubtedly factual, and the other debatable, depending on your view.
There's a world of difference between that and saying someone wants your kids to die.
I note that Rennard Gate has had no effect - as I predicted. And despite the usual wishful thinking from many on here. Each party has now had a 'scandal' that has made no difference - Ashcroft, Falkirk, Rennard. All are scandals only in the sense the entertain political obsessives while the general public say, erm, what?
The figures show the Lib Dem average down 0.6% over the last week. Doesn't sound a lot but when you are already below 10% it is significant. They have lost slightly more than 6% of their remaining support. In a week.
It is not as if the tories and UKIP are oscillating wildly either. Indeed what these useful averages show is that the last 5-6 weeks have been a period of remarkable stability. From the tory perspective this remains a worry. There has been a lot of good economic news in that time with better growth forecasts and a dramatic reduction in unemployment but so far there is no sign at all that it is making any difference.
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
Tractor stats don't shift votes; experiences and perceptions do. The Tories need the improving economy to deliver for ordinary punters. So far, that's not really happening to any great extent.
In fact, it's getting worse. There was an interesting analysis over the weekend which said living standards are falling for most, once you take tax credits and child benefit losses into account.
I note that Rennard Gate has had no effect - as I predicted. And despite the usual wishful thinking from many on here. Each party has now had a 'scandal' that has made no difference - Ashcroft, Falkirk, Rennard. All are scandals only in the sense the entertain political obsessives while the general public say, erm, what?
The figures show the Lib Dem average down 0.6% over the last week. Doesn't sound a lot but when you are already below 10% it is significant. They have lost slightly more than 6% of their remaining support. In a week.
True, but I suspect that is just MOE variation rather than a meaningful shift David.
It is not as if the tories and UKIP are oscillating wildly either. Indeed what these useful averages show is that the last 5-6 weeks have been a period of remarkable stability. From the tory perspective this remains a worry. There has been a lot of good economic news in that time with better growth forecasts and a dramatic reduction in unemployment but so far there is no sign at all that it is making any difference.
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
Tractor stats don't shift votes; experiences and perceptions do. The Tories need the improving economy to deliver for ordinary punters. So far, that's not really happening to any great extent.
Agree but/and from the other side of the spectrum if you are a hell-in-a-handbasket Kipper nothing has happened which will all of a sudden make you feel better, or give you the belief that Britain is regaining its greatness, or convince you to stop giving Cam a kicking.
It is not as if the tories and UKIP are oscillating wildly either. Indeed what these useful averages show is that the last 5-6 weeks have been a period of remarkable stability. From the tory perspective this remains a worry. There has been a lot of good economic news in that time with better growth forecasts and a dramatic reduction in unemployment but so far there is no sign at all that it is making any difference.
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
The economy isn't coming up on the doorstep significantly. Speculating, I think that's because the news is neither wonderful nor terrible, so people are focusing on other things. Education, the NHS and local planning controversies are the ones I get all the time.
Agree that he's (Charles Kennedy) been very quiet lately - I can't remember any recent intervention of significance.
Irrespective of his merits or otherwise, If they fronted him, in any case, I think it'd only be seen as emphasising how it is only the LD and Labour penal battalions fronting for Tories who were afraid to come and get involved (as opposed to doing a seagull, ie. fly in, squawk, and fly out again before the locals can react, like Mr Hague a few days ago).
It is truly astonishing that so many of lib dems at westminster either haven't noticed that or just don't seem to care. It is blatantly obvious on scottish TV and media with Rennie and Carmichael the go-to daily rent a quotes for the coalition/No campaign. They must have a radio mic permanently wired into them by now. If the lib dems elsewhere ever stopped for a second to wonder just why they are finishing behind the kippers in scotland they might eventually work it out.
It is not as if the tories and UKIP are oscillating wildly either. Indeed what these useful averages show is that the last 5-6 weeks have been a period of remarkable stability. From the tory perspective this remains a worry. There has been a lot of good economic news in that time with better growth forecasts and a dramatic reduction in unemployment but so far there is no sign at all that it is making any difference.
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
The economy isn't coming up on the doorstep significantly. Speculating, I think that's because the news is neither wonderful nor terrible, so people are focusing on other things. Education, the NHS and local planning controversies are the ones I get all the time.
Ah there you are Nick - apologies I had wanted to get back to you over the weekend.
I can't remember your exact words but they were to the effect of "no LD voter wants power". I take issue with this - in their own terms they want the power either to register their dissatisfaction with the existing political environment or the power to change or mitigate it or the power to say, tangibly, "something's got to change."
And in this, they have been successful so yes, it is power they wanted and power they got. They now have to decide whether it is all they wanted.
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
Sigh, neither covered themselves in glory, but why wheel the Clarkson thing out to somehow defend the idiot Hound? Are you saying what he said was OK, given that the BBC have given this "balance"?
It is not as if the tories and UKIP are oscillating wildly either. Indeed what these useful averages show is that the last 5-6 weeks have been a period of remarkable stability. From the tory perspective this remains a worry. There has been a lot of good economic news in that time with better growth forecasts and a dramatic reduction in unemployment but so far there is no sign at all that it is making any difference.
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
Tractor stats don't shift votes; experiences and perceptions do. The Tories need the improving economy to deliver for ordinary punters. So far, that's not really happening to any great extent.
Agree but/and from the other side of the spectrum if you are a hell-in-a-handbasket Kipper nothing has happened which will all of a sudden make you feel better, or give you the belief that Britain is regaining its greatness, or convince you to stop giving Cam a kicking.
For the moment.
I expect that to change as GE2015 approaches.
Agree with that... I think there isn't much that can or should be done for the kippers at the moment. Once the Euros are behind us and (hopefully) the good economic news continues with the positive effects being felt by the man on the street, then there will be a drift back.
I note that Rennard Gate has had no effect - as I predicted. And despite the usual wishful thinking from many on here. Each party has now had a 'scandal' that has made no difference - Ashcroft, Falkirk, Rennard. All are scandals only in the sense the entertain political obsessives while the general public say, erm, what?
I'm afraid you've got it wrong. They've had no immediate effect on VI (to be fair it will take a bomb to shift the lib dems from their VI flatlining at around 10% for the last four years anyway) but political effect, oh yes they have.
To start I suggest you look at the series of farces and resignations that wracked the tory party treasury after Ashcroft which directly impacts their ability to raise funds. That's even before taking into account the increasing influence of what Ashcroft is now doing which is by no means always what Cameron wants. Then tell me that having two shadow cabinet members quit from little Ed's cabinet, SLAB made to look completely clueless and out of the loop and a possible complete rethink of how labour are funded is no effect from Falkirk. Finally the Rennard debacle is not even close to being over. As he himself has made abundantly clear.
Sunday Times: THE Liberal Democrat peer at the centre of a sexual harassment scandal could expose two decades of sex scandals in the party if Nick Clegg “goes nuclear” and tries to expel him, say his friends.
Lord Rennard, who masterminded some of the party’s most successful election campaigns, is said by allies to “know where the bodies are buried”, including details of a married Lib Dem peer who has had extramarital affairs, a married MP who had a sexual liaison with a Lib Dem peer, a former MP who was regarded as a sex pest and secret gay liaisons involving both MPs and peers.
Very little change, really. UKIP slightly down, Conservatives slightly up, the others basically the same.
Mr. M, I expect comprehensive reports filled with wit and insight.
Mr. Scrapheap, this Hound fellow sounds like an utter arse. He should be made to withdraw the remark. And those comparing it to Clarkson's comment should know better. Clarkson called Brown an idiot (the one-eyed bit was factually accurate, but crude). He did not accuse Brown of wanting children to die. Clarkson was also not standing for office.
I'm going to sue the BBC. No, not for Hound's remarks, but for using a picture of me with a suntan without my permission. Grrrr... No, actually, ugggg...
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
Sigh, neither covered themselves in glory, but why wheel the Clarkson thing out to somehow defend the idiot Hound? Are you saying what he said was OK, given that the BBC have given this "balance"?
Surely the BBC is the one smeared here, by Young. Unless I've misread it, Hound did not smear Cameron on the BBC (and that is to beg the question of what distinguishes a smear from political hyperbole).
Mr. L, I'm not sure I'd consider it a smear so much as a mad utterance from a man standing for office.
That said, after Clarkson's comment (not the Brown-idiot, the shooting people for striking one) I think a QI episode he was to appear on was pulled from broadcast.
The BBC is not directly involved here because, as you say, the comments were made online (and not on a BBC site). However, a man accusing the PM of apparently wanting children to die is far more serious (especially given it seems to be genuine rather than Clarkson's blatant mockery).
Personally I think he should be fired from some sort of giant cannon into the heart of the sun.
I note that Rennard Gate has had no effect - as I predicted. And despite the usual wishful thinking from many on here. Each party has now had a 'scandal' that has made no difference - Ashcroft, Falkirk, Rennard. All are scandals only in the sense the entertain political obsessives while the general public say, erm, what?
Falkirk was/is a scandal by any acceptable definition of the word. The fact it didn't seem to move VI much does not stop it being scandalous. The wider impact on Labour, how they are funded and how they operate in Scotland is far from the little local difficulty that you are portray it as.
The Rennard story is far from over, and given how low the LDs are at the mo it's hard to see how much more VI can shift to Lab, but didn't we see a bit of a jump recently?
Hound was actually on ITV's Jonathan Ross plugging Dirty Rotten Scoundrels show when he pronounced the NHS was being privatised and so standing for the NHA. His blog builds on that publicity. He is now 'sans' wild 'tash and looks the worse for it which is some achievement.
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
Sigh, neither covered themselves in glory, but why wheel the Clarkson thing out to somehow defend the idiot Hound? Are you saying what he said was OK, given that the BBC have given this "balance"?
Surely the BBC is the one smeared here, by Young. Unless I've misread it, Hound did not smear Cameron on the BBC (and that is to beg the question of what distinguishes a smear from political hyperbole).
Whether Hound said it as a BBC employee or not is immaterial. I was poking SO for wheeling out Clarkson as somehow excusing/validating what Hound said.
@NickPalmer "Education, the NHS and local planning controversies are the ones I get all the time. "
Interesting Nick. What are your doorstep people saying about education? Something entirely local, or something relating to national patterns?
Presumably the voters are demanding that their children be given a better education than their neighbours'. During the brief period I sat as a councillor I did my damnedest to prevent anyone in the ward from finding out I was on the education committee...
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
"You mean the one-eyes Scottish idiot?" Well, two parts of that are undoubtedly factual, and the other debatable, depending on your view.
There's a world of difference between that and saying someone wants your kids to die.
Both are puerile, pathetic and ridiculous. The point being that using this comedian no-one has ever heard of to attack the BBC for "bias" is absurd. And that is clearly what Toby Young is doing, otherwise why mention the BBC at all?
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
Sigh, neither covered themselves in glory, but why wheel the Clarkson thing out to somehow defend the idiot Hound? Are you saying what he said was OK, given that the BBC have given this "balance"?
Surely the BBC is the one smeared here, by Young. Unless I've misread it, Hound did not smear Cameron on the BBC (and that is to beg the question of what distinguishes a smear from political hyperbole).
Whether Hound said it as a BBC employee or not is immaterial. I was poking SO for wheeling out Clarkson as somehow excusing/validating what Hound said.
Nothing can validate what this complete non-entity said. Clarkson only becomes relevant when folk start associating his words with the BBC.
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
"You mean the one-eyes Scottish idiot?" Well, two parts of that are undoubtedly factual, and the other debatable, depending on your view.
There's a world of difference between that and saying someone wants your kids to die.
Both are puerile, pathetic and ridiculous. The point being that using this comedian no-one has ever heard of to attack the BBC for "bias" is absurd. And that is clearly what Toby Young is doing, otherwise why mention the BBC at all?
"No-one has never heard of."
I've heard of him as I (drum rolls) listen to the BBC. Particularly Radio 4.
Obviously he's never been heard of to such an extent that he was on, and won, last year's Celebrity Come Dancing Christmas Special, just a month ago. Broadcast on the BBC.
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
Sigh, neither covered themselves in glory, but why wheel the Clarkson thing out to somehow defend the idiot Hound? Are you saying what he said was OK, given that the BBC have given this "balance"?
Surely the BBC is the one smeared here, by Young. Unless I've misread it, Hound did not smear Cameron on the BBC (and that is to beg the question of what distinguishes a smear from political hyperbole).
Whether Hound said it as a BBC employee or not is immaterial. I was poking SO for wheeling out Clarkson as somehow excusing/validating what Hound said.
Nothing can validate what this complete non-entity said. Clarkson only becomes relevant when folk start associating his words with the BBC.
I don't see how Clarkson can be relevant at all... I'm all for defending the BBC, national treasure and all that, but using one idiot to defend another is dumb. What hound said may have had nothing to do with the BBC, and fair enough to point that out.
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
"You mean the one-eyes Scottish idiot?" Well, two parts of that are undoubtedly factual, and the other debatable, depending on your view.
There's a world of difference between that and saying someone wants your kids to die.
Both are puerile, pathetic and ridiculous. The point being that using this comedian no-one has ever heard of to attack the BBC for "bias" is absurd. And that is clearly what Toby Young is doing, otherwise why mention the BBC at all?
"No-one has never heard of."
I've heard of him as I (drum rolls) listen to the BBC. Particularly Radio 4.
Obviously he's never been heard of to such an extent that he was on, and won, last year's Celebrity Come Dancing Christmas Special, just a month ago. Broadcast on the BBC.
Yes, a total non-entity.
Indeed. It would be interesting to know what listening figures his Radio 4 show gets and to compare those with Clarkson's viewing figures.
I note that Rennard Gate has had no effect - as I predicted. And despite the usual wishful thinking from many on here. Each party has now had a 'scandal' that has made no difference - Ashcroft, Falkirk, Rennard. All are scandals only in the sense the entertain political obsessives while the general public say, erm, what?
Falkirk was/is a scandal by any acceptable definition of the word. The fact it didn't seem to move VI much does not stop it being scandalous. The wider impact on Labour, how they are funded and how they operate in Scotland is far from the little local difficulty that you are portray it as.
The Rennard story is far from over, and given how low the LDs are at the mo it's hard to see how much more VI can shift to Lab, but didn't we see a bit of a jump recently?
In a sentence, what would you say the Falkirk scandal was all about?
Well Hound is getting the NHS Action Party some time then...
Robbie Gibb@RobbieGibb60 secs Today's #bbcdp - floods, regulations, housing, NHS Action party, feminism & which party is best for business? With @jo_coburn - 12pm BBC2
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
"You mean the one-eyes Scottish idiot?" Well, two parts of that are undoubtedly factual, and the other debatable, depending on your view.
There's a world of difference between that and saying someone wants your kids to die.
Both are puerile, pathetic and ridiculous. The point being that using this comedian no-one has ever heard of to attack the BBC for "bias" is absurd. And that is clearly what Toby Young is doing, otherwise why mention the BBC at all?
"No-one has never heard of."
I've heard of him as I (drum rolls) listen to the BBC. Particularly Radio 4.
Obviously he's never been heard of to such an extent that he was on, and won, last year's Celebrity Come Dancing Christmas Special, just a month ago. Broadcast on the BBC.
Yes, a total non-entity.
Indeed. It would be interesting to know what listening figures his Radio 4 show gets and to compare those with Clarkson's viewing figures.
Sorry, I didn't realise that in your world, the offensiveness of a comment was marked by how famous or watched the commenter is.
And you must admit that comment is fairly hideous.
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
"You mean the one-eyes Scottish idiot?" Well, two parts of that are undoubtedly factual, and the other debatable, depending on your view.
There's a world of difference between that and saying someone wants your kids to die.
Both are puerile, pathetic and ridiculous. The point being that using this comedian no-one has ever heard of to attack the BBC for "bias" is absurd. And that is clearly what Toby Young is doing, otherwise why mention the BBC at all?
"No-one has never heard of."
I've heard of him as I (drum rolls) listen to the BBC. Particularly Radio 4.
Obviously he's never been heard of to such an extent that he was on, and won, last year's Celebrity Come Dancing Christmas Special, just a month ago. Broadcast on the BBC.
Yes, a total non-entity.
Indeed. It would be interesting to know what listening figures his Radio 4 show gets and to compare those with Clarkson's viewing figures.
Sorry, I didn't realise that in your world, the offensiveness of a comment was marked by how famous or watched the commenter is.
And you must admit that comment is fairly hideous.
It's revolting. My point is about dragging the BBC into it.
Avery's problem is that having set himself up as an proponent of Osborne's 100% perfection he is now reduced to pretending inconvenient things don't exist or 'proving' some 2+2=5 meanderings.
It makes you wonder how easily politicians might lose touch with the real world with their tendancy to surround themselves with sycophants and not do any research for themselves.
Rufus Hound came out on Jonathan Ross - last week it was Russell Brand slating Cameron now Rufus this week.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
What was it BBC employee Jeremy Clarkson said about Gordon Brown?
Sigh, neither covered themselves in glory, but why wheel the Clarkson thing out to somehow defend the idiot Hound? Are you saying what he said was OK, given that the BBC have given this "balance"?
Surely the BBC is the one smeared here, by Young. Unless I've misread it, Hound did not smear Cameron on the BBC (and that is to beg the question of what distinguishes a smear from political hyperbole).
Whether Hound said it as a BBC employee or not is immaterial. I was poking SO for wheeling out Clarkson as somehow excusing/validating what Hound said.
Nothing can validate what this complete non-entity said. Clarkson only becomes relevant when folk start associating his words with the BBC.
I don't see how Clarkson can be relevant at all... I'm all for defending the BBC, national treasure and all that, but using one idiot to defend another is dumb. What hound said may have had nothing to do with the BBC, and fair enough to point that out.
That's all I'm doing. The BBC is irrelevant, but Toby is attempting to drag them in. For obvious reasons.
Indeed. Clarkson would always prefer the harlot's privilege of spouting his 'hilarious' opinions on the public payroll without actually having to put himself to the trouble of asking the public to vote in support of them.
Obviously he's never been heard of to such an extent that he was on, and won, last year's Celebrity Come Dancing Christmas Special, just a month ago. Broadcast on the BBC.
Yes, a total non-entity.
I'm not sure the former in any way contradicts the latter.
Indeed. Clarkson would always prefer the harlot's privilege of spouting his 'hilarious' opinions on the public payroll without actually having to put himself to the trouble of asking the public to vote in support of them.
Avery's problem is that having set himself up as an proponent of Osborne's 100% perfection he is now reduced to pretending inconvenient things don't exist or 'proving' some 2+2=5 meanderings.
It makes you wonder how easily politicians might lose touch with the real world with their tendancy to surround themselves with sycophants and not do any research for themselves.
Agree with the last sentence but even as a Kipper I have to acknowledge that Osborne has done a superb job thus far.
I note that Rennard Gate has had no effect - as I predicted. And despite the usual wishful thinking from many on here. Each party has now had a 'scandal' that has made no difference - Ashcroft, Falkirk, Rennard. All are scandals only in the sense the entertain political obsessives while the general public say, erm, what?
Falkirk was/is a scandal by any acceptable definition of the word. The fact it didn't seem to move VI much does not stop it being scandalous. The wider impact on Labour, how they are funded and how they operate in Scotland is far from the little local difficulty that you are portray it as.
The Rennard story is far from over, and given how low the LDs are at the mo it's hard to see how much more VI can shift to Lab, but didn't we see a bit of a jump recently?
In a sentence, what would you say the Falkirk scandal was all about?
I couldn't possibly reduce the saga to just one sentence.
Tell me, what do you find so acceptable of the following chain of events?
Eric "You can't touch me, I'm an MP!" Joyce resigns after assault charges. Karie Murphy announces she wants to be the candidate to replace Eric Stevie Deans is elected chariman of the Falkirk Labour party Karie Murphy and Stevie Deans recruit lots of new local members, many of whom didn't even know... Ed suspends the Falkirk selection, and following Henry Smith MP (Tory), reports the fiasco to the police. Stevie Deans was then suspended from his job at Grangemouth for fixing Labour's Falkirk vote on company time (when he was supposed to be working) Unite bosses threatened a "leverage" programme of rolling closures and strikes Unite then threatened to boycott Labour conference, unless Ed Miliband cleared them of wrongdoing and restarted the Falkirk selection Ed caves in and clears Unite Unite's strike threats lead to the closure of Grangemouth, with the loss of 800 jobs Not only 800 jobs but roughly 8% of the Scottish manufacturing base. At the last minute Unite admit defeat and the 800 jobs are saved As a result of internal investigations at Grangemouth. Emails were leaked, suggesting a conspiracy by Unite officials to change evidence
I've never bought into the argument of two polarised blocs of opinion - I suspect it's nowhere near as simple as that. My methodology assumes half the UKIP vote will break for the Conservatives so yesterday's Com Res would give the Conservatives a four-point lead while today's YouGov puts the Tories three in front.
That of course is based on the assumption that, as happened with the Liberal/LD vote in the past, a large part of the midterm protest vote will run back to its former home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder but of course we don't know that for sure with UKIP and therein lies one of the many issues facing those trying to predict 2015.
Avery's problem is that having set himself up as an proponent of Osborne's 100% perfection he is now reduced to pretending inconvenient things don't exist or 'proving' some 2+2=5 meanderings.
It makes you wonder how easily politicians might lose touch with the real world with their tendancy to surround themselves with sycophants and not do any research for themselves.
Agree with the last sentence but even as a Kipper I have to acknowledge that Osborne has done a superb job thus far.
You mean particularly as a Kipper. It was Obrowne's omnishambles and the biggest drop in tory polling since before 2010 that really kicked the kippers off of 5% and set them on their rise. It was that incompetence which first persuaded so many soft tories to start jumping ship over to Farage. You have much to be grateful for.
Obviously he's never been heard of to such an extent that he was on, and won, last year's Celebrity Come Dancing Christmas Special, just a month ago. Broadcast on the BBC.
Yes, a total non-entity.
I'm not sure the former in any way contradicts the latter.
It was won by an audience vote. So he's hardly a non-entity, In fact, in the way of these things, he probably got more votes from the public than any of our elected MPs.
That ICM poll for Scotland is remarkable. The party in power (SNP) looks like increasing its vote share at these European elections. Labour, the main opposition is stuck under 30% and has not recovered much from the 21% in 2009. Lib Dems heading for an * .
Obviously he's never been heard of to such an extent that he was on, and won, last year's Celebrity Come Dancing Christmas Special, just a month ago. Broadcast on the BBC.
Yes, a total non-entity.
I'm not sure the former in any way contradicts the latter.
It was won by an audience vote. So he's hardly a non-entity, In fact, in the way of these things, he probably got more votes from the public than any of our elected MPs.
And he won another BBC dance contest in 2010.
As I said, a total non-entity.
'nonentity nɒˈnɛntɪti/ noun
1. a person or thing with no special or interesting qualities; an unimportant person or thing.'
Avery's problem is that having set himself up as an proponent of Osborne's 100% perfection he is now reduced to pretending inconvenient things don't exist or 'proving' some 2+2=5 meanderings.
It makes you wonder how easily politicians might lose touch with the real world with their tendancy to surround themselves with sycophants and not do any research for themselves.
Agree with the last sentence but even as a Kipper I have to acknowledge that Osborne has done a superb job thus far.
So is it Europe that is the key issue? Or immigration? Assuming that Lab would have c*cked it up as usual, the Cons are proving the only party able to deliver competent economic policy. Without that most of the rest is moot.
So what has irritated you to the point whereby you have forsaken the best alternative possible (obtainable now) for the best possible alternative (unobtainable right now)?
I've never bought into the argument of two polarised blocs of opinion - I suspect it's nowhere near as simple as that. My methodology assumes half the UKIP vote will break for the Conservatives so yesterday's Com Res would give the Conservatives a four-point lead while today's YouGov puts the Tories three in front.
That of course is based on the assumption that, as happened with the Liberal/LD vote in the past, a large part of the midterm protest vote will run back to its former home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder but of course we don't know that for sure with UKIP and therein lies one of the many issues facing those trying to predict 2015.
Half seems like too much. It's unlikely that that much ever came from Con in the first place, and in the event that UKIP get squeezed out of the general election coverage some of the current UKIP identifiers will move back to Lab. The latter may not account for a lot of voters, but they count for a lot because they cancel out some of the ones going back to Con. So UKIP lose maybe 7% but of those only 4% go Con while 1% go Lab, and Con only net +3%.
I note that Rennard Gate has had no effect - as I predicted. And despite the usual wishful thinking from many on here. Each party has now had a 'scandal' that has made no difference - Ashcroft, Falkirk, Rennard. All are scandals only in the sense the entertain political obsessives while the general public say, erm, what?
Falkirk was/is a scandal by any acceptable definition of the word. The fact it didn't seem to move VI much does not stop it being scandalous. The wider impact on Labour, how they are funded and how they operate in Scotland is far from the little local difficulty that you are portray it as. [edited]
In a sentence, what would you say the Falkirk scandal was all about?
I couldn't possibly reduce the saga to just one sentence.
Tell me, what do you find so acceptable of the following chain of events?
Eric "You can't touch me, I'm an MP!" Joyce resigns after assault charges. Karie Murphy announces she wants to be the candidate to replace Eric Stevie Deans is elected chariman of the Falkirk Labour party Karie Murphy and Stevie Deans recruit lots of new local members, many of whom didn't even know... Ed suspends the Falkirk selection, and following Henry Smith MP (Tory), reports the fiasco to the police. Stevie Deans was then suspended from his job at Grangemouth for fixing Labour's Falkirk vote on company time (when he was supposed to be working) Unite bosses threatened a "leverage" programme of rolling closures and strikes Unite then threatened to boycott Labour conference, unless Ed Miliband cleared them of wrongdoing and restarted the Falkirk selection Ed caves in and clears Unite Unite's strike threats lead to the closure of Grangemouth, with the loss of 800 jobs Not only 800 jobs but roughly 8% of the Scottish manufacturing base. At the last minute Unite admit defeat and the 800 jobs are saved As a result of internal investigations at Grangemouth. Emails were leaked, suggesting a conspiracy by Unite officials to change evidence
And 800 union members end up with worse contracts because of that strike. And the associated refinery would have been at long term risk if the adjacent petrochemical works had closed. And many contractor jobs were put at risk too. A lot of people were - I assume - very badly frightened. And it was the SNP Government, not the local head of the Labour Party in Scotland, who were seen to try and sort out the mess even if Mr Salmond had to miss key elements of his party conference, if I recall rightly. If those don't have some effect on voting, even in a Labour heartland seat, I really will be surprised.
I've never bought into the argument of two polarised blocs of opinion - I suspect it's nowhere near as simple as that. My methodology assumes half the UKIP vote will break for the Conservatives so yesterday's Com Res would give the Conservatives a four-point lead while today's YouGov puts the Tories three in front.
That of course is based on the assumption that, as happened with the Liberal/LD vote in the past, a large part of the midterm protest vote will run back to its former home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder but of course we don't know that for sure with UKIP and therein lies one of the many issues facing those trying to predict 2015.
I guess you think the result will be almost identically split in terms of seats Lab/Con ? Do you think it will be a continuation of the coaltion or a Lib/Lab administration
Obviously he's never been heard of to such an extent that he was on, and won, last year's Celebrity Come Dancing Christmas Special, just a month ago. Broadcast on the BBC.
Yes, a total non-entity.
I'm not sure the former in any way contradicts the latter.
It was won by an audience vote. So he's hardly a non-entity, In fact, in the way of these things, he probably got more votes from the public than any of our elected MPs.
And he won another BBC dance contest in 2010.
As I said, a total non-entity.
'nonentity nɒˈnɛntɪti/ noun
1. a person or thing with no special or interesting qualities; an unimportant person or thing.'
As I said, no contradiction.
If he has no special or interesting qualities, and is unimportant, then why does he appear on the BBC, ITV and Channel 4 so often?
Surely that shows that there need to be a root-and-branch reform of who they allow on their shows? I think you and SO should be put on a special committee to grant people 'entity' and 'non-entity' status.
I see that Avery is now trying to hide his humiliation in a fog of long winded posts with long important sounding words.
He is also having far too little sleep.
Perhaps Charles or RN could arrange a visit to Cousin Seth for him before he cracks up totally.
His argument was reasonably convinced ar, if you hadn't already made up your mind.
Forecasts are forecasts. They are often wrong. And it's pretty common that there is one line deep in a model that throws out a slightly bizarre number anyway.
Half seems like too much. It's unlikely that that much ever came from Con in the first place, and in the event that UKIP get squeezed out of the general election coverage some of the current UKIP identifiers will move back to Lab. The latter may not account for a lot of voters, but they count for a lot because they cancel out some of the ones going back to Con. So UKIP lose maybe 7% but of those only 4% go Con while 1% go Lab, and Con only net +3%.
Perhaps but I've seen polls suggesting at least 40% of UKIP voters prefer a Conservative Government so that's my starting point as a way of trying to estimate the maximum potential Conservative vote. This is the basis, I think, of Cameron's UKIP squeeze theory.
Taking as an example the December IPSOS/MORI numbers and applying the above, you'd have the Conservatives and Labour level on 37 (allowing for your argument, we'll make it 38/37 in Labour's favour) which would again be much better for Labour overall.
Once again, we don't know what will happen - will the UKIP vote a) stay with UKIP b) stay at home or c) return to old loyalties ? We can't answer that yet - this time next year, we may have a better idea.
We also don't know if the current Labour vote (solid as it is) is the party's potential maximum. What we do know is that IF Labour polls in the range 37-40% in 2015 it becomes almost impossible for the Conservatives to achieve an overall majority.
I note that Rennard Gate has had no effect - as I predicted. And despite the usual wishful thinking from many on here. Each party has now had a 'scandal' that has made no difference - Ashcroft, Falkirk, Rennard. All are scandals only in the sense the entertain political obsessives while the general public say, erm, what?
Falkirk was/is a scandal by any acceptable definition of the word. The fact it didn't seem to move VI much does not stop it being scandalous. The wider impact on Labour, how they are funded and how they operate in Scotland is far from the little local difficulty that you are portray it as.
The Rennard story is far from over, and given how low the LDs are at the mo it's hard to see how much more VI can shift to Lab, but didn't we see a bit of a jump recently?
In a sentence, what would you say the Falkirk scandal was all about?
Unions threatening people to try and get their own way? (well that was Grangemouth)
The point is that in the current climate ("they're all awful") individual scandals don't really affect VI. However they can have material impacts on process points:
eg:
- Falkirk: damaged SLAB, may damage Labour's union funding - Flowers: likely to damage Labour's Coop funding - Rennard: may impact on LD activist morale - Hancock: may reinforce Rennard impact
All of these could be important come GE15, but probably won't show up in VI polling
I think you and SO should be put on a special committee to grant people 'entity' and 'non-entity' status.
Why would we bother? You seem to have enthusiastically cornered that market.
For the avoidance of doubt, my personal opinion is that winning some celebrity dance bollox doesn't confer specialness or importance upon someone, your personal opinion appears to differ on that. I'm entirely comfortable with that, you, apparently, not so much.
Half seems like too much. It's unlikely that that much ever came from Con in the first place, and in the event that UKIP get squeezed out of the general election coverage some of the current UKIP identifiers will move back to Lab. The latter may not account for a lot of voters, but they count for a lot because they cancel out some of the ones going back to Con. So UKIP lose maybe 7% but of those only 4% go Con while 1% go Lab, and Con only net +3%.
Perhaps but I've seen polls suggesting at least 40% of UKIP voters prefer a Conservative Government so that's my starting point as a way of trying to estimate the maximum potential Conservative vote. This is the basis, I think, of Cameron's UKIP squeeze theory.
Taking as an example the December IPSOS/MORI numbers and applying the above, you'd have the Conservatives and Labour level on 37 (allowing for your argument, we'll make it 38/37 in Labour's favour) which would again be much better for Labour overall.
Once again, we don't know what will happen - will the UKIP vote a) stay with UKIP b) stay at home or c) return to old loyalties ? We can't answer that yet - this time next year, we may have a better idea.
We also don't know if the current Labour vote (solid as it is) is the party's potential maximum. What we do know is that IF Labour polls in the range 37-40% in 2015 it becomes almost impossible for the Conservatives to achieve an overall majority.
I think Labour has a higher potential minimum and a lower potential maximum than the Conservatives. I think at GE2010 that pretty much was the Labour minimum.
Half seems like too much. It's unlikely that that much ever came from Con in the first place, and in the event that UKIP get squeezed out of the general election coverage some of the current UKIP identifiers will move back to Lab. The latter may not account for a lot of voters, but they count for a lot because they cancel out some of the ones going back to Con. So UKIP lose maybe 7% but of those only 4% go Con while 1% go Lab, and Con only net +3%.
Perhaps but I've seen polls suggesting at least 40% of UKIP voters prefer a Conservative Government so that's my starting point as a way of trying to estimate the maximum potential Conservative vote. This is the basis, I think, of Cameron's UKIP squeeze theory.
Taking as an example the December IPSOS/MORI numbers and applying the above, you'd have the Conservatives and Labour level on 37 (allowing for your argument, we'll make it 38/37 in Labour's favour) which would again be much better for Labour overall.
Once again, we don't know what will happen - will the UKIP vote a) stay with UKIP b) stay at home or c) return to old loyalties ? We can't answer that yet - this time next year, we may have a better idea.
We also don't know if the current Labour vote (solid as it is) is the party's potential maximum. What we do know is that IF Labour polls in the range 37-40% in 2015 it becomes almost impossible for the Conservatives to achieve an overall majority.
I think Labour has a higher potential minimum and a lower potential maximum than the Conservatives. I think at GE2010 that pretty much was the Labour minimum.
I'd disagree - Labour got 42% in Scotland and 27% in England in 2010.
Had Brown not held up a sizeable Scottish vote they could have been much lower.
I don't think Cameron can tap the potential current maximum however, John Major hit it in 1992. Centrist voters who see the Conservatives as the party of people that want to get on, that's the big 'mine' that is going to go largely untapped at the next GE I think.
Half seems like too much. It's unlikely that that much ever came from Con in the first place, and in the event that UKIP get squeezed out of the general election coverage some of the current UKIP identifiers will move back to Lab. The latter may not account for a lot of voters, but they count for a lot because they cancel out some of the ones going back to Con. So UKIP lose maybe 7% but of those only 4% go Con while 1% go Lab, and Con only net +3%.
Perhaps but I've seen polls suggesting at least 40% of UKIP voters prefer a Conservative Government so that's my starting point as a way of trying to estimate the maximum potential Conservative vote. This is the basis, I think, of Cameron's UKIP squeeze theory.
Taking as an example the December IPSOS/MORI numbers and applying the above, you'd have the Conservatives and Labour level on 37 (allowing for your argument, we'll make it 38/37 in Labour's favour) which would again be much better for Labour overall.
Once again, we don't know what will happen - will the UKIP vote a) stay with UKIP b) stay at home or c) return to old loyalties ? We can't answer that yet - this time next year, we may have a better idea.
We also don't know if the current Labour vote (solid as it is) is the party's potential maximum. What we do know is that IF Labour polls in the range 37-40% in 2015 it becomes almost impossible for the Conservatives to achieve an overall majority.
I think Labour has a higher potential minimum and a lower potential maximum than the Conservatives. I think at GE2010 that pretty much was the Labour minimum.
I'd disagree - Labour got 42% in Scotland and 27% in England in 2010.
Had Brown not held up a sizeable Scottish vote they could have been much lower.
Not really - Scotland is, what, 5% of the electorate? So c. 2% of Labour's 29% came from Scotland. Even if their share of the vote had been 21% (half) then it would have only impacted their overall vote share by 1%
Half seems like too much. It's unlikely that that much ever came from Con in the first place, and in the event that UKIP get squeezed out of the general election coverage some of the current UKIP identifiers will move back to Lab. The latter may not account for a lot of voters, but they count for a lot because they cancel out some of the ones going back to Con. So UKIP lose maybe 7% but of those only 4% go Con while 1% go Lab, and Con only net +3%.
Perhaps but I've seen polls suggesting at least 40% of UKIP voters prefer a Conservative Government so that's my starting point as a way of trying to estimate the maximum potential Conservative vote. This is the basis, I think, of Cameron's UKIP squeeze theory.
Taking as an example the December IPSOS/MORI numbers and applying the above, you'd have the Conservatives and Labour level on 37 (allowing for your argument, we'll make it 38/37 in Labour's favour) which would again be much better for Labour overall.
Once again, we don't know what will happen - will the UKIP vote a) stay with UKIP b) stay at home or c) return to old loyalties ? We can't answer that yet - this time next year, we may have a better idea.
We also don't know if the current Labour vote (solid as it is) is the party's potential maximum. What we do know is that IF Labour polls in the range 37-40% in 2015 it becomes almost impossible for the Conservatives to achieve an overall majority.
I think Labour has a higher potential minimum and a lower potential maximum than the Conservatives. I think at GE2010 that pretty much was the Labour minimum.
I'd disagree - Labour got 42% in Scotland and 27% in England in 2010.
Had Brown not held up a sizeable Scottish vote they could have been much lower.
Yes sorry I'd agree Labour was not at a minimum in Scotland, England and Wales yes.
But in a way that is even worse in terms of seats, since if Labour drops in Scotland those seats are heading to the SNP - one or two Conservative gains at the most. Labour doing even better in Scotland and worse in England and Wales would be better for Dave, instead it is the other way round.
I think you and SO should be put on a special committee to grant people 'entity' and 'non-entity' status.
Why would we bother? You seem to have enthusiastically cornered that market.
For the avoidance of doubt, my personal opinion is that winning some celebrity dance bollox doesn't confer specialness or importance upon someone, your personal opinion appears to differ on that. I'm entirely comfortable with that, you, apparently, not so much.
No, I'm saying that calling someone who has regular slots on three TV channels (plus radio), appears on Jonathon Ross, and won the audience vote on a TV show at Christmas is not a non-entity. You obviously differ.
It would be interesting to know who you'd consider as being 'entities'.
I think Labour has a higher potential minimum and a lower potential maximum than the Conservatives. I think at GE2010 that pretty much was the Labour minimum.
Remarkably, Labour in 2010 got a lower vote share than the Conservatives in 1997 yet ended up with 90 seats more. The failure of the Conservatives to ruthlessly exploit and split the anti-Tory vote in 2010 as effectively as they had in the 1980s and 1992 cost them a majority. Move 5% from the LD share to the Conservative share from 2010 and Baxter the numbers and you get a Conservative majority of 60+.
There's a lot of talk among the Conservative-inclined on here about getting the Labour number down - what matters is getting the Conservative vote share higher. Polling in the 30-35% range isn't good enough - the party needs to be over 40%. The last four majorities (up to and including 1992) came with shares over 40%. Labour can win a majority by polling 36-38% - the Conservatives can't at present.
It is not as if the tories and UKIP are oscillating wildly either. Indeed what these useful averages show is that the last 5-6 weeks have been a period of remarkable stability. From the tory perspective this remains a worry. There has been a lot of good economic news in that time with better growth forecasts and a dramatic reduction in unemployment but so far there is no sign at all that it is making any difference.
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
Tractor stats don't shift votes; experiences and perceptions do. The Tories need the improving economy to deliver for ordinary punters. So far, that's not really happening to any great extent.
I'd agree with that SO. The problem is that the population as a whole are very bad at judging whether they are better off or not. This is not surprising. the differences we are talking about are very small, tenths of one per cent. It really is a game for statisticians and economists.
Similarly, many more people will notice prices that have gone up than those which have come down and our media are focussed that way too. We may well have a situation where the vast majority of people are in fact better off than they are now by the election (albeit worse off than they were in 2010) but think that they are worse off.
The evidence that politicians and governments get much credit for good past economic performance is somewhat sparse. More important is peoples' perception of how they are likely to perform in the future. This is of course entirely right.
I thought the Mr Hound (who he?) article a touch over the top.
If I remember rightly, Cameron has lost one of his children; how many children has Mr Hound watched die?
He is somebody called Robert Simpson, it seems.
Although he appears to have adopted his porn name for commercial purposes (name of first pet followed by type of pet .. which make his porn tastes rather "exotic")
The twitter argument between Hound and Young shows Hound in a very bad light. Young is right to say that had a Ukip politician said what Hound did there would be calls for Farage to disown them, and Hound is showing an appalling lack of judgement to infer that someone whose child died, of all people, would like to see other children suffer the same fate
Maybe Young included 'BBC' in the headline as a dig to associate them with the disgusting comments, but don't let that overshadow what an appalling thing has been said.
I hope Hound makes a public apology and steps down from the euro election
It is not as if the tories and UKIP are oscillating wildly either. Indeed what these useful averages show is that the last 5-6 weeks have been a period of remarkable stability. From the tory perspective this remains a worry. There has been a lot of good economic news in that time with better growth forecasts and a dramatic reduction in unemployment but so far there is no sign at all that it is making any difference.
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
Tractor stats don't shift votes; experiences and perceptions do. The Tories need the improving economy to deliver for ordinary punters. So far, that's not really happening to any great extent.
I'd agree with that SO. The problem is that the population as a whole are very bad at judging whether they are better off or not. This is not surprising. the differences we are talking about are very small, tenths of one per cent. It really is a game for statisticians and economists.
Similarly, many more people will notice prices that have gone up than those which have come down and our media are focussed that way too. We may well have a situation where the vast majority of people are in fact better off than they are now by the election (albeit worse off than they were in 2010) but think that they are worse off.
The evidence that politicians and governments get much credit for good past economic performance is somewhat sparse. More important is peoples' perception of how they are likely to perform in the future. This is of course entirely right.
Looking at historical precedent, the economy grew strongly in 1985 and 1986, but it wasn't until the Autumn of 1986 that this had any impact on the Conservatives' poll ratings.
It is not as if the tories and UKIP are oscillating wildly either. Indeed what these useful averages show is that the last 5-6 weeks have been a period of remarkable stability. From the tory perspective this remains a worry. There has been a lot of good economic news in that time with better growth forecasts and a dramatic reduction in unemployment but so far there is no sign at all that it is making any difference.
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
Tractor stats don't shift votes; experiences and perceptions do. The Tories need the improving economy to deliver for ordinary punters. So far, that's not really happening to any great extent.
I'd agree with that SO. The problem is that the population as a whole are very bad at judging whether they are better off or not. This is not surprising. the differences we are talking about are very small, tenths of one per cent. It really is a game for statisticians and economists.
Similarly, many more people will notice prices that have gone up than those which have come down and our media are focussed that way too. We may well have a situation where the vast majority of people are in fact better off than they are now by the election (albeit worse off than they were in 2010) but think that they are worse off.
The evidence that politicians and governments get much credit for good past economic performance is somewhat sparse. More important is peoples' perception of how they are likely to perform in the future. This is of course entirely right.
DavidL - Who'd be a politician? The fact is that most things take a long time to put right, certainly longer than an electoral cycle, or even two or three; and sometimes when you do try to make things better they get worse first. And in the age of 24 hour news, blogs, tweets and all the rest of it, the scrutiny is much greater (worse) than it has ever been before. But that's the world we live in and the one in which politicians choose to operate. Good luck to them!
Re Rufus Hound, his middle name is Blair, just saying.
Anyone describing Strictly Come Dancing as bollox, well you need to be educated by me on your mistake, before you know it, you'll be saying Hannibal is superior to Caesar.
The phrase that really got on my nerves was "We're helping hard working families"
Comments
Lab 24%
UKIP 7%
LD 6%
No Tory figure given.
About 85% recovered from Burns Night on Saturday .... will probably achieve full operation mode by February !!
This week we will have the Q4 results which should be goodish but I have always doubted the traction of those. Will the drip, drip, drip of good news start to have an effect or will the pattern hold? Time is starting to run a little short for the tories. They need a move soon.
Toby Young@toadmeister5 mins
BBC comedian says Cameron 'wants your kids to die': This is a new low. Rufus Hound, the host of a Radio 4 come... http://bit.ly/1jVF9Xy
Chris Deerin@chrisdeerin2 mins
Worth remembering re 50p tax that it was pre-election stunt by Brown to screw the Tories. Never was economic rationale behind it. Same again
There's a world of difference between that and saying someone wants your kids to die.
For the moment.
I expect that to change as GE2015 approaches.
Worth reproducing this from yesterday in light of that polling.
I can't remember your exact words but they were to the effect of "no LD voter wants power". I take issue with this - in their own terms they want the power either to register their dissatisfaction with the existing political environment or the power to change or mitigate it or the power to say, tangibly, "something's got to change."
And in this, they have been successful so yes, it is power they wanted and power they got. They now have to decide whether it is all they wanted.
To start I suggest you look at the series of farces and resignations that wracked the tory party treasury after Ashcroft which directly impacts their ability to raise funds. That's even before taking into account the increasing influence of what Ashcroft is now doing which is by no means always what Cameron wants. Then tell me that having two shadow cabinet members quit from little Ed's cabinet, SLAB made to look completely clueless and out of the loop and a possible complete rethink of how labour are funded is no effect from Falkirk. Finally the Rennard debacle is not even close to being over. As he himself has made abundantly clear.
Very little change, really. UKIP slightly down, Conservatives slightly up, the others basically the same.
Mr. M, I expect comprehensive reports filled with wit and insight.
Mr. Scrapheap, this Hound fellow sounds like an utter arse. He should be made to withdraw the remark. And those comparing it to Clarkson's comment should know better. Clarkson called Brown an idiot (the one-eyed bit was factually accurate, but crude). He did not accuse Brown of wanting children to die. Clarkson was also not standing for office.
I'm going to sue the BBC. No, not for Hound's remarks, but for using a picture of me with a suntan without my permission. Grrrr... No, actually, ugggg...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25885519
"Education, the NHS and local planning controversies are the ones I get all the time. "
Interesting Nick. What are your doorstep people saying about education?
Something entirely local, or something relating to national patterns?
That said, after Clarkson's comment (not the Brown-idiot, the shooting people for striking one) I think a QI episode he was to appear on was pulled from broadcast.
The BBC is not directly involved here because, as you say, the comments were made online (and not on a BBC site). However, a man accusing the PM of apparently wanting children to die is far more serious (especially given it seems to be genuine rather than Clarkson's blatant mockery).
Personally I think he should be fired from some sort of giant cannon into the heart of the sun.
The Rennard story is far from over, and given how low the LDs are at the mo it's hard to see how much more VI can shift to Lab, but didn't we see a bit of a jump recently?
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/local/decision-to-let-mike-hancock-stay-causes-rumpus-1-5835054
"‘I’m personally ashamed when I see good friends and colleagues from other ends of the country saying “this was a disgraceful decision”.’"
BBC are carrying it too.
He is also having far too little sleep.
Perhaps Charles or RN could arrange a visit to Cousin Seth for him before he cracks up totally.
I've heard of him as I (drum rolls) listen to the BBC. Particularly Radio 4.
Obviously he's never been heard of to such an extent that he was on, and won, last year's Celebrity Come Dancing Christmas Special, just a month ago. Broadcast on the BBC.
Yes, a total non-entity.
Ian Birrell@ianbirrell5 mins
Another 'comedian' climbing on Brand's bandwagon. @RufusHound is offensive, wrong & stupid in one short piece http://rufushound.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/david-and-jeremy-want-your-kids-to-die-unless-youre-rich/ …
Robbie Gibb@RobbieGibb60 secs
Today's #bbcdp - floods, regulations, housing, NHS Action party, feminism & which party is best for business? With @jo_coburn - 12pm BBC2
And you must admit that comment is fairly hideous.
Avery's problem is that having set himself up as an proponent of Osborne's 100% perfection he is now reduced to pretending inconvenient things don't exist or 'proving' some 2+2=5 meanderings.
It makes you wonder how easily politicians might lose touch with the real world with their tendancy to surround themselves with sycophants and not do any research for themselves.
Tell me, what do you find so acceptable of the following chain of events?
Eric "You can't touch me, I'm an MP!" Joyce resigns after assault charges.
Karie Murphy announces she wants to be the candidate to replace Eric
Stevie Deans is elected chariman of the Falkirk Labour party
Karie Murphy and Stevie Deans recruit lots of new local members, many of whom didn't even know...
Ed suspends the Falkirk selection, and following Henry Smith MP (Tory), reports the fiasco to the police.
Stevie Deans was then suspended from his job at Grangemouth for fixing Labour's Falkirk vote on company time (when he was supposed to be working)
Unite bosses threatened a "leverage" programme of rolling closures and strikes
Unite then threatened to boycott Labour conference, unless Ed Miliband cleared them of wrongdoing and restarted the Falkirk selection
Ed caves in and clears Unite
Unite's strike threats lead to the closure of Grangemouth, with the loss of 800 jobs
Not only 800 jobs but roughly 8% of the Scottish manufacturing base.
At the last minute Unite admit defeat and the 800 jobs are saved
As a result of internal investigations at Grangemouth. Emails were leaked, suggesting a conspiracy by Unite officials to change evidence
I've never bought into the argument of two polarised blocs of opinion - I suspect it's nowhere near as simple as that. My methodology assumes half the UKIP vote will break for the Conservatives so yesterday's Com Res would give the Conservatives a four-point lead while today's YouGov puts the Tories three in front.
That of course is based on the assumption that, as happened with the Liberal/LD vote in the past, a large part of the midterm protest vote will run back to its former home at the first whiff of electoral gunpowder but of course we don't know that for sure with UKIP and therein lies one of the many issues facing those trying to predict 2015.
And he won another BBC dance contest in 2010.
As I said, a total non-entity.
nɒˈnɛntɪti/
noun
1. a person or thing with no special or interesting qualities; an unimportant person or thing.'
As I said, no contradiction.
So what has irritated you to the point whereby you have forsaken the best alternative possible (obtainable now) for the best possible alternative (unobtainable right now)?
Or are you playing the long game?
Surely that shows that there need to be a root-and-branch reform of who they allow on their shows? I think you and SO should be put on a special committee to grant people 'entity' and 'non-entity' status.
Or perhaps you are both wrong ...
Forecasts are forecasts. They are often wrong. And it's pretty common that there is one line deep in a model that throws out a slightly bizarre number anyway.
Taking as an example the December IPSOS/MORI numbers and applying the above, you'd have the Conservatives and Labour level on 37 (allowing for your argument, we'll make it 38/37 in Labour's favour) which would again be much better for Labour overall.
Once again, we don't know what will happen - will the UKIP vote a) stay with UKIP b) stay at home or c) return to old loyalties ? We can't answer that yet - this time next year, we may have a better idea.
We also don't know if the current Labour vote (solid as it is) is the party's potential maximum. What we do know is that IF Labour polls in the range 37-40% in 2015 it becomes almost impossible for the Conservatives to achieve an overall majority.
The point is that in the current climate ("they're all awful") individual scandals don't really affect VI. However they can have material impacts on process points:
eg:
- Falkirk: damaged SLAB, may damage Labour's union funding
- Flowers: likely to damage Labour's Coop funding
- Rennard: may impact on LD activist morale
- Hancock: may reinforce Rennard impact
All of these could be important come GE15, but probably won't show up in VI polling
If I remember rightly, Cameron has lost one of his children; how many children has Mr Hound watched die?
For the avoidance of doubt, my personal opinion is that winning some celebrity dance bollox doesn't confer specialness or importance upon someone, your personal opinion appears to differ on that. I'm entirely comfortable with that, you, apparently, not so much.
Had Brown not held up a sizeable Scottish vote they could have been much lower.
But in a way that is even worse in terms of seats, since if Labour drops in Scotland those seats are heading to the SNP - one or two Conservative gains at the most. Labour doing even better in Scotland and worse in England and Wales would be better for Dave, instead it is the other way round.
It would be interesting to know who you'd consider as being 'entities'.
No more vacuous, meaningless and irritating statement than someone "sharing your frustration".
There's a lot of talk among the Conservative-inclined on here about getting the Labour number down - what matters is getting the Conservative vote share higher. Polling in the 30-35% range isn't good enough - the party needs to be over 40%. The last four majorities (up to and including 1992) came with shares over 40%. Labour can win a majority by polling 36-38% - the Conservatives can't at present.
Similarly, many more people will notice prices that have gone up than those which have come down and our media are focussed that way too. We may well have a situation where the vast majority of people are in fact better off than they are now by the election (albeit worse off than they were in 2010) but think that they are worse off.
The evidence that politicians and governments get much credit for good past economic performance is somewhat sparse. More important is peoples' perception of how they are likely to perform in the future. This is of course entirely right.
Although he appears to have adopted his porn name for commercial purposes (name of first pet followed by type of pet .. which make his porn tastes rather "exotic")
Does that make me a bad person?
Maybe Young included 'BBC' in the headline as a dig to associate them with the disgusting comments, but don't let that overshadow what an appalling thing has been said.
I hope Hound makes a public apology and steps down from the euro election
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyyoung/100256663/bbc-comedian-says-cameron-wants-your-kids-to-die/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-25910853
Anyone describing Strictly Come Dancing as bollox, well you need to be educated by me on your mistake, before you know it, you'll be saying Hannibal is superior to Caesar.
The phrase that really got on my nerves was "We're helping hard working families"
What about the hard working singletons?
OMG - I'm channelling Bridget Jones.