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Nate Silver comes out even better when you look at the ECV bands. I just checked my record of the forecasts, which I noted a few days before the election. For Hillary under 250 ECVs, Nate had a probability of 25%, New York Times had 8.5%, and Huff Post had 0.18%. Final outcome: 227.rcs1000 said:
Yes, 538 got a huge amount of stick for NOT showing it as a Hillary certainty. Their 2:1 shot on Donald Trump looks a pretty good forecast compared to... absolutely everybody else.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, they had her on something like a 65% to 70% shot (and got a lot of criticism for it at the time). There were some other models which did as you say have her as a virtual certainty.JohnRussell said:
Not research as much as possibly faulty memory... but didn’t they have Hilary a 1.01 shot?Richard_Nabavi said:Democrats to get majority in the House of Representatives:
fivethirtyeight.com: 83.6% (Classic model) or 76% (Polls-only model).
Betfair price to back: 1.51
DYOR
Beware excessive precision in forecasts!0 -
May - 'considerable progress has been made since Salzburg - we can achieve a deal, a deal that I believe everybody wants'
This must be an entirely new meaning of the word "everybody" entirely unfamiliar to me.0 -
+1!! All the very bestBig_G_NorthWales said:
I really hope the hospital helps you. Health is far more important than brexit. All the best0 -
Mr. Fenman, I've heard of that, and it's on my list. Likewise Iron Heel by Jack London.
And, slightly differently, EM Forster's The Machine Stops, which is over a century old but effectively predicts the internet. And technology-driven slovenliness.0 -
Why?rcs1000 said:The United States is pulling out of the Universal Postal Union.
For those who don't who or what the UPU is, here's a nice video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHhkNwE7pr80 -
It won't at most we will rejoin the single marketTheScreamingEagles said:
Just remember a bad Brexit might well see us sign up to the Euro as part of Rejoining cost.Alanbrooke said:
which is why I want out of the damned thing. Its run in the interests of a handful of statesTheScreamingEagles said:
As Jean Claude Juncker put it in the 2016 EU gives budget leeway to France 'because it is France'Alanbrooke said:So if Im following this correctly the EU will reject Italys budget as it breaks the rules and will start proceedings against it, France also will breach EU budget guidelines but wont get prosecuted
How are you going to feel then?0 -
ChinaFF43 said:
Why?rcs1000 said:The United States is pulling out of the Universal Postal Union.
For those who don't who or what the UPU is, here's a nice video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHhkNwE7pr8
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-postoffice-trump/update-1-trump-pulling-out-of-treaty-that-cut-rates-for-foreign-postal-deliveries-to-u-s-idUSL2N1WX0RG0 -
Thanks. The US has a pointCarlottaVance said:
ChinaFF43 said:
Why?rcs1000 said:The United States is pulling out of the Universal Postal Union.
For those who don't who or what the UPU is, here's a nice video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHhkNwE7pr8
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-postoffice-trump/update-1-trump-pulling-out-of-treaty-that-cut-rates-for-foreign-postal-deliveries-to-u-s-idUSL2N1WX0RG0 -
You say that with all the assurance you used to Boris Johnson was nailed on to succeed Mrs May.HYUFD said:
It won't at most we will rejoin the single marketTheScreamingEagles said:
Just remember a bad Brexit might well see us sign up to the Euro as part of Rejoining cost.Alanbrooke said:
which is why I want out of the damned thing. Its run in the interests of a handful of statesTheScreamingEagles said:
As Jean Claude Juncker put it in the 2016 EU gives budget leeway to France 'because it is France'Alanbrooke said:So if Im following this correctly the EU will reject Italys budget as it breaks the rules and will start proceedings against it, France also will breach EU budget guidelines but wont get prosecuted
How are you going to feel then?0 -
I thought you’d seen the light. Don’t tell me we have to wait for PM Chuka again?HYUFD said:
It won't at most we will rejoin the single marketTheScreamingEagles said:
Just remember a bad Brexit might well see us sign up to the Euro as part of Rejoining cost.Alanbrooke said:
which is why I want out of the damned thing. Its run in the interests of a handful of statesTheScreamingEagles said:
As Jean Claude Juncker put it in the 2016 EU gives budget leeway to France 'because it is France'Alanbrooke said:So if Im following this correctly the EU will reject Italys budget as it breaks the rules and will start proceedings against it, France also will breach EU budget guidelines but wont get prosecuted
How are you going to feel then?0 -
Why is it harder to write an agreement about an all-UK customs backstop than an Ireland-only customs backstop? Admittedly both are bonkers, since the whole idea of the backstop is to allow us to move on to agreeing a deal that makes the backstop redundant, but that's a separate point.CarlottaVance said:0 -
On the Khashoggi case, there were earlier reports in Turkey (allegedly from British intelligence) that this was a planned abduction gone wrong (but why bring a bone a saw?).
In any case its all spectacularly inept - why not simply arrange a traffic accident that would raise few if any questions?
The answer I think is because they thought they could get away with it
Apparently MBS (or 'Mister Bone Saw' from now on) is a great admirer of Putin.0 -
Even No Deal is substantially more popular than the Euro.TheScreamingEagles said:
You say that with all the assurance you used to Boris Johnson was nailed on to succeed Mrs May.HYUFD said:
It won't at most we will rejoin the single marketTheScreamingEagles said:
Just remember a bad Brexit might well see us sign up to the Euro as part of Rejoining cost.Alanbrooke said:
which is why I want out of the damned thing. Its run in the interests of a handful of statesTheScreamingEagles said:
As Jean Claude Juncker put it in the 2016 EU gives budget leeway to France 'because it is France'Alanbrooke said:So if Im following this correctly the EU will reject Italys budget as it breaks the rules and will start proceedings against it, France also will breach EU budget guidelines but wont get prosecuted
How are you going to feel then?
If we enter the Euro it does not matter what happens about the UK as our economy would be controlled by Germany anyway.
Boris of course remains Tory members choice to succeed May in the ConHome polling0 -
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
An ordinary dinner party, the sort of occasion we all enjoy. The LEAVERs are exchanging witty stories. And look at the REMAINERs; aren’t they pretty? Look at the way they laugh, they’re delightful. But now the conversation turns to more serious matters.
LEAVER 1:
“I wonder if the Government should stay out of the EU Customs Union”
LEAVER 2:
“I think it should.”
LEAVER 1:
“Good. Then we’re all agreed.”
But oh dear, what’s this? One of the REMAINERs is about to embarrass us all…
REMAINER:
“I think the Government should stay in the Customs Union, so that the Pound can reach a level that would keep our exports competitive.”
The REMAINER has foolishly attempted to join the conversation with a wild and dangerous opinion of his own! What half-baked drivel! See how the LEAVERS look at him with utter contempt!
LEAVER 2:
“Alastair, we’re going home!!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
Look at the effect of education on a LEAVER and a REMAINER’s mind. Education passes into the mind of a LEAVER. See how the information is evenly and tidily stored.
Now see the same thing on a REMAINER. At first we see a similar result. But now look. Still at a reasonably low level of education his brain suddenly overloads. He can't take in complicated information. He becomes frantically and absurdly deranged.
Look at these venomous harridans. They went to university. Hard to believe they are all under 25. Yes, over-education leads to ugliness, premature aging and beard growth. And ranting on online political betting fora.
Now, let’s see the proper way.
LEAVER 1:
“Good. So we’re all agreed. We should stay out of the Customs Union.”
REMAINER:
“Oh, I don’t know anything about the Northern Ireland Backstop, I’m afraid, but I do love little kittens! They’re so soft, and furry.”
LEAVER 2:
“What a delightful thought, you dear, sweet, fragile little thing! I adore you, Alastair!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS. In thought, be plain and simple, and let your natural sweetness shine through!
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It was a huge blunder not to support the Hashemites against the Saudis. But I think the Saudis Wahabbi "purity" appealed to the aescetic Arabists in the FO more.Foxy said:
It's not for us to choose their successors, indeed it was rather foolish of us to put the House of Saud in control after WW1.david_herdson said:
That's easy to say (and may well be right). All the same, if you want to topple the House of Saud, you need to say what you want to replace it with, and how. To me, it's pretty damn clear that if the Saudi state loses control of the Peninsula, there's little that the Islamic extremists would love more than to occupy Mecca and establish their supposed new caliphate there. Good luck sorting that out.Foxy said:
The whole House of Saud is rotten. A palace coup is not enough.david_herdson said:
The only realistic option to one Saudi prince is another Saudi prince. But western governments tread in a minefield if they get involved in palace coups there given the sensitivity of the control of Mecca and Medina.SeanT said:
Emotionally I agree with you. I despise Saudi Arabia. But look what's happened almost everywhere else in the Muslim world when autocrats have been toppled, either by their own people or with our "help".Foxy said:
No it isn't. It is never worth propping up such a regime.SeanT said:
Any human with a soulFoxy said:
Yet we still want to flog them bombs.SeanT said:
Jesus Christ. Why?? What do they gain dismembering him alive? Apart from some sadistic pleasure?
Killing him by itself is surely enough to frighten dissidents into silence. This just makes the Saudi regime look psychotic, worse than North Korea, and deserving of similar isolation.
https://twitter.com/IsraaAlGhomgham/status/1051907856251772929?s=19
With friends like this, who needs enemies?
That's why we prop up the Saudi royals. Because the alternative, incredibly, is even WORSE.
Jihadists have moved in.
Saudi Arabia is the HQ of jihadism, the cradle of Waahabism. They are the only credible opposition to the royals. They would take over. And that WOULD be worse.
The best thing we can do is slowly wean ourselves off Middle Eastern oil (which we are doing) and pray that over time the fires ofworldwide jihadism simply burn out. I think they surely will (all things must pass) but it could take decades.
I fully agree that becoming less reliant on ME oil is a big part of the answer - though that of itself may starve the tiger that the Saudi royals are riding.
Our dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire left more than a few legacy issues!0 -
I think it demonstrates tremendous bad faith from the EU that they have zero intention of ever agreeing a deal that makes the backstop redundant.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why is it harder to write an agreement about an all-UK customs backstop than an Ireland-only customs backstop? Admittedly both are bonkers, since the whole idea of the backstop is to agree a deal that makes the backstop redundant, but that's a separate point.CarlottaVance said:0 -
It may be PM Chuka but at the moment it looks like we may stay in the single market even after the transition period if we are to get a dealwilliamglenn said:
I thought you’d seen the light. Don’t tell me we have to wait for PM Chuka again?HYUFD said:
It won't at most we will rejoin the single marketTheScreamingEagles said:
Just remember a bad Brexit might well see us sign up to the Euro as part of Rejoining cost.Alanbrooke said:
which is why I want out of the damned thing. Its run in the interests of a handful of statesTheScreamingEagles said:
As Jean Claude Juncker put it in the 2016 EU gives budget leeway to France 'because it is France'Alanbrooke said:So if Im following this correctly the EU will reject Italys budget as it breaks the rules and will start proceedings against it, France also will breach EU budget guidelines but wont get prosecuted
How are you going to feel then?0 -
London voted remain.AllyPally_Rob said:
What I can't get my head round is why are they holding it in London yet again? Why not hold it in Birmingham or Manchester?TheScreamingEagles said:
Are you attending this weekend's Pleb's People's Vote rally?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Yes it is.SquareRoot said:Oops typo
Is it really more important?0 -
NEW THREAD0
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NEW THREAD
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Actually, no it doesn't.FF43 said:
Thanks. The US has a pointCarlottaVance said:
ChinaFF43 said:
Why?rcs1000 said:The United States is pulling out of the Universal Postal Union.
For those who don't who or what the UPU is, here's a nice video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHhkNwE7pr8
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-postoffice-trump/update-1-trump-pulling-out-of-treaty-that-cut-rates-for-foreign-postal-deliveries-to-u-s-idUSL2N1WX0RG
The US is allowed to have its own delivery charges as part of the UPU process. But it can't discriminate. It can't have $0.10 for a British letter from New York harbor to Rochester NY, and $1.00 for a Chinese one.
It could easily raise delivery rates, but ultimately the Trump administration just HATES multinational bodies.0 -
Rather unusual use of "considerable progress" as well. To the casual observer it would appear that nothing much has changed since the "breakthrough" in December in which May agreed to the backstop arrangement she is now trying to wriggle out of.grabcocque said:May - 'considerable progress has been made since Salzburg - we can achieve a deal, a deal that I believe everybody wants'
This must be an entirely new meaning of the word "everybody" entirely unfamiliar to me.0
This discussion has been closed.