Democrats to get majority in the House of Representatives:
fivethirtyeight.com: 83.6% (Classic model) or 76% (Polls-only model).
Betfair price to back: 1.51
DYOR
Not research as much as possibly faulty memory... but didn’t they have Hilary a 1.01 shot?
No, they had her on something like a 65% to 70% shot (and got a lot of criticism for it at the time). There were some other models which did as you say have her as a virtual certainty.
Yes, 538 got a huge amount of stick for NOT showing it as a Hillary certainty. Their 2:1 shot on Donald Trump looks a pretty good forecast compared to... absolutely everybody else.
Nate Silver comes out even better when you look at the ECV bands. I just checked my record of the forecasts, which I noted a few days before the election. For Hillary under 250 ECVs, Nate had a probability of 25%, New York Times had 8.5%, and Huff Post had 0.18%. Final outcome: 227.
Mr. Fenman, I've heard of that, and it's on my list. Likewise Iron Heel by Jack London.
And, slightly differently, EM Forster's The Machine Stops, which is over a century old but effectively predicts the internet. And technology-driven slovenliness.
So if Im following this correctly the EU will reject Italys budget as it breaks the rules and will start proceedings against it, France also will breach EU budget guidelines but wont get prosecuted
As Jean Claude Juncker put it in the 2016 EU gives budget leeway to France 'because it is France'
which is why I want out of the damned thing. Its run in the interests of a handful of states
Just remember a bad Brexit might well see us sign up to the Euro as part of Rejoining cost.
So if Im following this correctly the EU will reject Italys budget as it breaks the rules and will start proceedings against it, France also will breach EU budget guidelines but wont get prosecuted
As Jean Claude Juncker put it in the 2016 EU gives budget leeway to France 'because it is France'
which is why I want out of the damned thing. Its run in the interests of a handful of states
Just remember a bad Brexit might well see us sign up to the Euro as part of Rejoining cost.
How are you going to feel then?
It won't at most we will rejoin the single market
You say that with all the assurance you used to Boris Johnson was nailed on to succeed Mrs May.
So if Im following this correctly the EU will reject Italys budget as it breaks the rules and will start proceedings against it, France also will breach EU budget guidelines but wont get prosecuted
As Jean Claude Juncker put it in the 2016 EU gives budget leeway to France 'because it is France'
which is why I want out of the damned thing. Its run in the interests of a handful of states
Just remember a bad Brexit might well see us sign up to the Euro as part of Rejoining cost.
How are you going to feel then?
It won't at most we will rejoin the single market
I thought you’d seen the light. Don’t tell me we have to wait for PM Chuka again?
Why is it harder to write an agreement about an all-UK customs backstop than an Ireland-only customs backstop? Admittedly both are bonkers, since the whole idea of the backstop is to allow us to move on to agreeing a deal that makes the backstop redundant, but that's a separate point.
On the Khashoggi case, there were earlier reports in Turkey (allegedly from British intelligence) that this was a planned abduction gone wrong (but why bring a bone a saw?).
In any case its all spectacularly inept - why not simply arrange a traffic accident that would raise few if any questions?
The answer I think is because they thought they could get away with it
Apparently MBS (or 'Mister Bone Saw' from now on) is a great admirer of Putin.
So if Im following this correctly the EU will reject Italys budget as it breaks the rules and will start proceedings against it, France also will breach EU budget guidelines but wont get prosecuted
As Jean Claude Juncker put it in the 2016 EU gives budget leeway to France 'because it is France'
which is why I want out of the damned thing. Its run in the interests of a handful of states
Just remember a bad Brexit might well see us sign up to the Euro as part of Rejoining cost.
How are you going to feel then?
It won't at most we will rejoin the single market
You say that with all the assurance you used to Boris Johnson was nailed on to succeed Mrs May.
Even No Deal is substantially more popular than the Euro.
If we enter the Euro it does not matter what happens about the UK as our economy would be controlled by Germany anyway.
Boris of course remains Tory members choice to succeed May in the ConHome polling
An ordinary dinner party, the sort of occasion we all enjoy. The LEAVERs are exchanging witty stories. And look at the REMAINERs; aren’t they pretty? Look at the way they laugh, they’re delightful. But now the conversation turns to more serious matters.
LEAVER 1: “I wonder if the Government should stay out of the EU Customs Union”
LEAVER 2: “I think it should.”
LEAVER 1: “Good. Then we’re all agreed.”
But oh dear, what’s this? One of the REMAINERs is about to embarrass us all…
REMAINER: “I think the Government should stay in the Customs Union, so that the Pound can reach a level that would keep our exports competitive.”
The REMAINER has foolishly attempted to join the conversation with a wild and dangerous opinion of his own! What half-baked drivel! See how the LEAVERS look at him with utter contempt!
LEAVER 2: “Alastair, we’re going home!!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
Look at the effect of education on a LEAVER and a REMAINER’s mind. Education passes into the mind of a LEAVER. See how the information is evenly and tidily stored.
Now see the same thing on a REMAINER. At first we see a similar result. But now look. Still at a reasonably low level of education his brain suddenly overloads. He can't take in complicated information. He becomes frantically and absurdly deranged.
Look at these venomous harridans. They went to university. Hard to believe they are all under 25. Yes, over-education leads to ugliness, premature aging and beard growth. And ranting on online political betting fora.
Now, let’s see the proper way.
LEAVER 1: “Good. So we’re all agreed. We should stay out of the Customs Union.”
REMAINER: “Oh, I don’t know anything about the Northern Ireland Backstop, I’m afraid, but I do love little kittens! They’re so soft, and furry.”
LEAVER 2: “What a delightful thought, you dear, sweet, fragile little thing! I adore you, Alastair!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS. In thought, be plain and simple, and let your natural sweetness shine through!
Jesus Christ. Why?? What do they gain dismembering him alive? Apart from some sadistic pleasure?
Killing him by itself is surely enough to frighten dissidents into silence. This just makes the Saudi regime look psychotic, worse than North Korea, and deserving of similar isolation.
That's why we prop up the Saudi royals. Because the alternative, incredibly, is even WORSE.
No it isn't. It is never worth propping up such a regime.
Emotionally I agree with you. I despise Saudi Arabia. But look what's happened almost everywhere else in the Muslim world when autocrats have been toppled, either by their own people or with our "help".
Jihadists have moved in.
Saudi Arabia is the HQ of jihadism, the cradle of Waahabism. They are the only credible opposition to the royals. They would take over. And that WOULD be worse.
The best thing we can do is slowly wean ourselves off Middle Eastern oil (which we are doing) and pray that over time the fires ofworldwide jihadism simply burn out. I think they surely will (all things must pass) but it could take decades.
The only realistic option to one Saudi prince is another Saudi prince. But western governments tread in a minefield if they get involved in palace coups there given the sensitivity of the control of Mecca and Medina.
I fully agree that becoming less reliant on ME oil is a big part of the answer - though that of itself may starve the tiger that the Saudi royals are riding.
The whole House of Saud is rotten. A palace coup is not enough.
That's easy to say (and may well be right). All the same, if you want to topple the House of Saud, you need to say what you want to replace it with, and how. To me, it's pretty damn clear that if the Saudi state loses control of the Peninsula, there's little that the Islamic extremists would love more than to occupy Mecca and establish their supposed new caliphate there. Good luck sorting that out.
It's not for us to choose their successors, indeed it was rather foolish of us to put the House of Saud in control after WW1.
Our dismemberment of the Ottoman Empire left more than a few legacy issues!
It was a huge blunder not to support the Hashemites against the Saudis. But I think the Saudis Wahabbi "purity" appealed to the aescetic Arabists in the FO more.
Why is it harder to write an agreement about an all-UK customs backstop than an Ireland-only customs backstop? Admittedly both are bonkers, since the whole idea of the backstop is to agree a deal that makes the backstop redundant, but that's a separate point.
I think it demonstrates tremendous bad faith from the EU that they have zero intention of ever agreeing a deal that makes the backstop redundant.
So if Im following this correctly the EU will reject Italys budget as it breaks the rules and will start proceedings against it, France also will breach EU budget guidelines but wont get prosecuted
As Jean Claude Juncker put it in the 2016 EU gives budget leeway to France 'because it is France'
which is why I want out of the damned thing. Its run in the interests of a handful of states
Just remember a bad Brexit might well see us sign up to the Euro as part of Rejoining cost.
How are you going to feel then?
It won't at most we will rejoin the single market
I thought you’d seen the light. Don’t tell me we have to wait for PM Chuka again?
It may be PM Chuka but at the moment it looks like we may stay in the single market even after the transition period if we are to get a deal
The US is allowed to have its own delivery charges as part of the UPU process. But it can't discriminate. It can't have $0.10 for a British letter from New York harbor to Rochester NY, and $1.00 for a Chinese one.
It could easily raise delivery rates, but ultimately the Trump administration just HATES multinational bodies.
May - 'considerable progress has been made since Salzburg - we can achieve a deal, a deal that I believe everybody wants'
This must be an entirely new meaning of the word "everybody" entirely unfamiliar to me.
Rather unusual use of "considerable progress" as well. To the casual observer it would appear that nothing much has changed since the "breakthrough" in December in which May agreed to the backstop arrangement she is now trying to wriggle out of.
Comments
Beware excessive precision in forecasts!
This must be an entirely new meaning of the word "everybody" entirely unfamiliar to me.
And, slightly differently, EM Forster's The Machine Stops, which is over a century old but effectively predicts the internet. And technology-driven slovenliness.
https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-postoffice-trump/update-1-trump-pulling-out-of-treaty-that-cut-rates-for-foreign-postal-deliveries-to-u-s-idUSL2N1WX0RG
In any case its all spectacularly inept - why not simply arrange a traffic accident that would raise few if any questions?
The answer I think is because they thought they could get away with it
Apparently MBS (or 'Mister Bone Saw' from now on) is a great admirer of Putin.
If we enter the Euro it does not matter what happens about the UK as our economy would be controlled by Germany anyway.
Boris of course remains Tory members choice to succeed May in the ConHome polling
An ordinary dinner party, the sort of occasion we all enjoy. The LEAVERs are exchanging witty stories. And look at the REMAINERs; aren’t they pretty? Look at the way they laugh, they’re delightful. But now the conversation turns to more serious matters.
LEAVER 1:
“I wonder if the Government should stay out of the EU Customs Union”
LEAVER 2:
“I think it should.”
LEAVER 1:
“Good. Then we’re all agreed.”
But oh dear, what’s this? One of the REMAINERs is about to embarrass us all…
REMAINER:
“I think the Government should stay in the Customs Union, so that the Pound can reach a level that would keep our exports competitive.”
The REMAINER has foolishly attempted to join the conversation with a wild and dangerous opinion of his own! What half-baked drivel! See how the LEAVERS look at him with utter contempt!
LEAVER 2:
“Alastair, we’re going home!!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS!
Look at the effect of education on a LEAVER and a REMAINER’s mind. Education passes into the mind of a LEAVER. See how the information is evenly and tidily stored.
Now see the same thing on a REMAINER. At first we see a similar result. But now look. Still at a reasonably low level of education his brain suddenly overloads. He can't take in complicated information. He becomes frantically and absurdly deranged.
Look at these venomous harridans. They went to university. Hard to believe they are all under 25. Yes, over-education leads to ugliness, premature aging and beard growth. And ranting on online political betting fora.
Now, let’s see the proper way.
LEAVER 1:
“Good. So we’re all agreed. We should stay out of the Customs Union.”
REMAINER:
“Oh, I don’t know anything about the Northern Ireland Backstop, I’m afraid, but I do love little kittens! They’re so soft, and furry.”
LEAVER 2:
“What a delightful thought, you dear, sweet, fragile little thing! I adore you, Alastair!”
REMAINERS - KNOW YOUR LIMITS. In thought, be plain and simple, and let your natural sweetness shine through!
NEW THREAD
The US is allowed to have its own delivery charges as part of the UPU process. But it can't discriminate. It can't have $0.10 for a British letter from New York harbor to Rochester NY, and $1.00 for a Chinese one.
It could easily raise delivery rates, but ultimately the Trump administration just HATES multinational bodies.