politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The end of the court of Sessions?

DoubleCarpet said:

Yep Haddad is back out to 3.2 now.

If Rd 1 really is 41/25, it will be very difficult for Haddad to win the second round, Bolsonaro will only need to add Alckmin's share and he'll be pretty much there.

Broadly agree. imho the bands are:

Under 30% - Haddad favourite
30-35% - Tight but Haddad favourite
35-40% - Tight but Bolsonaro favourite
Over 40% - Bolsonaro solid favourite unless run-off polls show a big surge in stop-Bolsonaro voters.

DoubleCarpet said:

Yep Haddad is back out to 3.2 now.

If Rd 1 really is 41/25, it will be very difficult for Haddad to win the second round, Bolsonaro will only need to add Alckmin's share and he'll be pretty much there.

I recall a Maldivian presidential election where the candidate with circa 45% in the first round didn't win the second round, only getting 48/49%, but I don't know if it was in any way free or fair.

Bolsonaro's son leads his Rio Senate seat, but well short of a knockout

edit: one of his sons, apparently he has a few

I see from his wiki page that Bolsonaro has been a member of 9 differently named political entities in his political career. I wonder if that is just a result of a lot of party rebrandings.

Evening again all

I presume we discussed ad infinitum and indeed ad nauseam the results of the Latvian General Election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_parliamentary_election,_2018

The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.

The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.

I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....

DoubleCarpet said:

Bolsonaro into 1.38 and the official results site has crashed.

gotta get TSE up and running again

stodge said:

Evening again all

I presume we discussed ad infinitum and indeed ad nauseam the results of the Latvian General Election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_parliamentary_election,_2018

The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.

The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.

I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....

My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.

Well I have to confess that Latvia is the outside the "basket" of countries that I follow - it votes on a Saturday and is very fragmented and that's all I know.

But if you can't have niche discussions on Sunday night on PB where can you?

Wow, showing the pictures form London where thousands of Brazilians voted earlier. Voting is compulsory in Brazil, but I do not know if that includes citizens abroad

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

stodge said:

Evening again all

I presume we discussed ad infinitum and indeed ad nauseam the results of the Latvian General Election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_parliamentary_election,_2018

The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.

The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.

I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....

My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.

I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre

See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present

He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU

Yes but he does that to everyone who doesn't agree with him.

DoubleCarpet said:

Anyway while we wait for the exits in Brazil, these are all the 2019 elections (the ones I'll be following anyway!) - quite a busy year:

Argentina
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
Greece
India
Indonesia
Israel
Portugal
South Africa
Switzerland

Plus the biggest round of UK council elections this Parliament

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

stodge said:

Evening again all

I presume we discussed ad infinitum and indeed ad nauseam the results of the Latvian General Election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_parliamentary_election,_2018

The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.

The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.

I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....

My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.

I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre

See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present

He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU

'Jean-Claude, a great business person, head of the European Union,” Trump said. “Jean-Claude my friend. I’d say, ‘Jean-Claude, we want to make a deal.'”

“He goes, ‘No, no, no. We are very happy,'” Trump said, slightly rolling the “r” and dropping the “h” and drawing out the “pee” in “happy” for emphasis'

https://www.politico.eu/article/no-no-no-donald-trump-tries-out-jean-claude-juncker-accent/

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

stodge said:

Evening again all

I presume we discussed ad infinitum and indeed ad nauseam the results of the Latvian General Election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_parliamentary_election,_2018

The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.

The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.

I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....

My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.

I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre

See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present

He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU

"Do you want Total War?" Goebbels in 1943, receiving rapturous applause from those present.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

stodge said:

Evening again all

I presume we discussed ad infinitum and indeed ad nauseam the results of the Latvian General Election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_parliamentary_election,_2018

The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.

The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.

I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....

My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.

I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre

See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present

He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU

"Do you want Total War?" Goebbels in 1943, receiving rapturous applause from those present.

I hope that is an extreme example, the word there is hope

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

dixiedean said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

kle4 said:

stodge said:

Evening again all

I presume we discussed ad infinitum and indeed ad nauseam the results of the Latvian General Election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_parliamentary_election,_2018

The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.

The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.

I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....

My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.

I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre

See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present

He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU

Yes but he does that to everyone who doesn't agree with him.

He is quite the most stupid President the US could have elected and he does not look like he is going anywhere, sadly

Trump is no intellectual but he is sharp, Rubio was the thickest candidate the US could have elected in 2016

Trump is quite the most divisive objectionable person to hold the office

Maybe but that is different from being the stupidest

There is no maybe about it

According to journalist Ricardo Noblat, the presidential exit poll that will be released by Ibope will show Bolsonaro winning in the first round.

So let's see if that's true.

One of the great things about election days/nights is separating the fake rumours from the real ones.

Resultado da votação em Dublin, Irlanda

Ciro Gomes 369 votos
J. Bolsonaro 366 votos
J. Amoedo 145 votos
F. Haddad 95 votos
Marina Silva 37 votos
Geraldo Alckmin 22 votos
G. Boulos 22 votos
Álvaro Dias 7 votos
Daciolo 2 votos
João Goulart 2 votos

DoubleCarpet said:

According to journalist Ricardo Noblat, the presidential exit poll that will be released by Ibope will show Bolsonaro winning in the first round.

So let's see if that's true.

One of the great things about election days/nights is separating the fake rumours from the real ones.

not out the question given results elsewhere (I have greyed out)

Harmony is not a terrible name for a party - perhaps that new centrist that is totally going to happen and not at all a pipe dream could take that as their name?

Is anyone else betting on Brazil at the mo?

DoubleCarpet said:

2014 results detail:

https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resultados_da_eleição_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2014

you mean other than my +1/-3 possible outcomes (I might go in again, but no doubt a fraction of the amount staked by others)

geoffw said:

tlg86 said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:

More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.

Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?

That's a lot of money.

We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.

I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.

Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?

Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?

I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.

I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?

Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.

Diplomatic impunity more like.

There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.

AndyJS said:

Interpol chief arrested in China:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-45777681

Isn’t that the second Interpol chief in recent years to get his collar felt by his home country’s plod? Wasn’t there one from South Africa too?

rpjs said:

AndyJS said:

Interpol chief arrested in China:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-45777681

Isn’t that the second Interpol chief in recent years to get his collar felt by his home country’s plod? Wasn’t there one from South Africa too?

This one seems a bit more sinister.

The Chinese state is starting to 'disappear' prominent figures in a more open way. And that is never good.

45% v 28% (Ibope)

Gomes 14 Alckmin 4

DoubleCarpet said:

Exit poll: 2nd round needed. Bolsonaro 45%, Haddad 28%

Looks like a populist rightist v a leftist runoff and if Bolsonaro wins then Brazil has its very own Trump

So crudely, Bolsonaro + Alckmin = 49, Haddad + Gomes = 42

Apparently Bolsonaro is at 49% in current vote count, Haddad 26% with 53% counted.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

AndyJS said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Bolsonaro currently on 49% with half of votes counted

Is there a live results page? Thanks in advance.

... the official one is down for DC and me, but Twitter is getting some graphics from somewhere

Right, thanks.

Cyclefree said:

geoffw said:

tlg86 said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:

More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.

Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?

That's a lot of money.

We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.

I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.

Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?

Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?

I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.

I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?

Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.

Diplomatic impunity more like.

There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.

Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

48.9%, 57% counted

Looks like no victory tonight. But ow low does it have to go for Haddad to have any chance????

I wonder what the highest vote below 50%+1 anyone has ever got in the first round of an election, only for them to lose in the second round?

AndyJS said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

48.9%, 57% counted

Looks like no victory tonight. But ow low does it have to go for Haddad to have any chance????

I wonder what the highest vote below 50%+1 anyone has ever got in the first round of an election, only for them to lose in the second round?

No first round winner has EVER lost the second round.

EDIT: Sorry, thought you just meant Brazil.

Quincel said:

AndyJS said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

48.9%, 57% counted

Looks like no victory tonight. But ow low does it have to go for Haddad to have any chance????

I wonder what the highest vote below 50%+1 anyone has ever got in the first round of an election, only for them to lose in the second round?

No first round winner has EVER lost the second round.

How about this one?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_1974#Result

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

geoffw said:

tlg86 said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:

More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.

Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?

That's a lot of money.

We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.

I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.

Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?

Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?

I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.

I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?

Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.

Diplomatic impunity more like.

There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.

Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.

CPS guidance says the following:

“Criminal immunity is only afforded to the Service Staff at foreign diplomatic or foreign London-based consular missions in respect of the acts performed in the course of their duties. However, such staff are not inviolable.”

Murder is not an act performed in the course of a diplomat’s duties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_1981

same again but other way round re candidates v 1974

DoubleCarpet said:

Haha no probs.

Although winning Rd 1 and losing Rd 2 must be fairly rare.

Here's one for people - change of governing party (excluding technocrats) without an election? (or revolution obv)

Post WW2 I can only think of W Germany 1982 and Spain 2018 - any other examples?

Greek post-junta, I guess - there wasn't a revolution, IIRC the junta just got fed up and handed over power.

But in general I think the incoming party wants to get a mandate, rather than winning by getting some defections.

It's probably not unusual for a candidate to win the first round with 30% and lose in the second round.

DoubleCarpet said:

Haha no probs.

Although winning Rd 1 and losing Rd 2 must be fairly rare.

Here's one for people - change of governing party (excluding technocrats) without an election? (or revolution obv)

Post WW2 I can only think of W Germany 1982 and Spain 2018 - any other examples?

There have been a few coalition governments where the PM has switched from one to the other, in Scandanavia for example, or where coalition parties have joined/left without an election

Bolsonaro is on 48.12% with 72% counted according to this page:

https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/apuracao/presidente.ghtml

NickPalmer said:

Greek post-junta, I guess - there wasn't a revolution, IIRC the junta just got fed up and handed over power.

But in general I think the incoming party wants to get a mandate, rather than winning by getting some defections.

And of course South Africa was very similar to Greece in that way.

Apparently he's on 48% with 72% counted, but BF just moved back to 1.3. Why?!

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

geoffw said:

tlg86 said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:

More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.

Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?

That's a lot of money.

We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.

I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.

Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?

Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?

I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.

I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?

Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.

Diplomatic impunity more like.

There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.

Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.

CPS guidance says the following:

“Criminal immunity is only afforded to the Service Staff at foreign diplomatic or foreign London-based consular missions in respect of the acts performed in the course of their duties. However, such staff are not inviolable.”

Murder is not an act performed in the course of a diplomat’s duties.

Are you sure? I mean James Bond never seems to end up in court

I know, it’s the lack of legal realism in those films that ruin them for me .......

Quincel said:

Now 1.5! Small amounts but still, wtf?

Is that for him to be elected president overall?

Just checked, he's back to 1.3. I frankly thing 1.1-1.2 seems fair but on the other hand I know very little about Brazilian politics so I wouldn't like to be too bullish.

Quincel said:

AndyJS said:

Quincel said:

Now 1.5! Small amounts but still, wtf?

Is that for him to be elected president overall?

Yes. It appears the final results are from Haddad areas so he's softening a bit to 47% atm, maybe 45% at the end (bang on the exit poll if so). I struggle to see how this isn't much better for him than polls suggested, and he was 1.4 before the results began.

Anything could happen in the final round, which I guess explains why the odds are as they are. 3 weeks is a long time in Brazil. For example if his supporters start causing trouble all over the place it could damage his popularity.

AndyJS said:

Quincel said:

AndyJS said:

Quincel said:

Now 1.5! Small amounts but still, wtf?

Is that for him to be elected president overall?

Yes. It appears the final results are from Haddad areas so he's softening a bit to 47% atm, maybe 45% at the end (bang on the exit poll if so). I struggle to see how this isn't much better for him than polls suggested, and he was 1.4 before the results began.

Anything could happen in the final round, which I guess explains why the odds are as they are. 3 weeks is a long time in Brazil. For example if his supporters start causing trouble all over the place it could damage his popularity.

But anything could have happened in 3 weeks and two days - but two days ago he was polling around 35% in the first round and was on 1.4. Now he's gotten 45-47% in the first round and he's just 1.3? I just don't buy it. That's a move from 70% likely to win to 75% likely.

But then again, I really don't know much about this situation so I might just be missing something.

Quincel said:

AndyJS said:

Quincel said:

AndyJS said:

Quincel said:

Now 1.5! Small amounts but still, wtf?

Is that for him to be elected president overall?

Yes. It appears the final results are from Haddad areas so he's softening a bit to 47% atm, maybe 45% at the end (bang on the exit poll if so). I struggle to see how this isn't much better for him than polls suggested, and he was 1.4 before the results began.

Anything could happen in the final round, which I guess explains why the odds are as they are. 3 weeks is a long time in Brazil. For example if his supporters start causing trouble all over the place it could damage his popularity.

But anything could have happened in 3 weeks and two days - but two days ago he was polling around 35% in the first round and was on 1.4. Now he's gotten 45-47% in the first round and he's just 1.3? I just don't buy it. That's a move from 70% likely to win to 75% likely.

But then again, I really don't know much about this situation so I might just be missing something.

He could go down in the next 3 weeks in the same way he went up in the previous 3.

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cyclefree said:

geoffw said:

tlg86 said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

tlg86 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:

More disturbing WTF stories:

Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45775819

'Limousine crash' leaves twenty dead in New York State
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45778366

The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.

Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?

That's a lot of money.

We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.

I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.

Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?

Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?

Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?

I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.

I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?

Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.

Diplomatic impunity more like.

There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.

Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.

CPS guidance says the following:

“Criminal immunity is only afforded to the Service Staff at foreign diplomatic or foreign London-based consular missions in respect of the acts performed in the course of their duties. However, such staff are not inviolable.”

Murder is not an act performed in the course of a diplomat’s duties.

Its happened before overseas and they got away with it: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/can-a-diplomat-get-away-with-murder-1282444.html

He went to jail: http://articles.latimes.com/1997/dec/20/news/mn-531

In some unexpectedly happy news, Steve Richards has a new series out on BBC Parliament. It's called "Reflections" (cf his previous "Turning Points") and you can find it here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bkyrx5