If Rd 1 really is 41/25, it will be very difficult for Haddad to win the second round, Bolsonaro will only need to add Alckmin's share and he'll be pretty much there.
Broadly agree. imho the bands are:
Under 30% - Haddad favourite 30-35% - Tight but Haddad favourite 35-40% - Tight but Bolsonaro favourite Over 40% - Bolsonaro solid favourite unless run-off polls show a big surge in stop-Bolsonaro voters.
If Rd 1 really is 41/25, it will be very difficult for Haddad to win the second round, Bolsonaro will only need to add Alckmin's share and he'll be pretty much there.
I recall a Maldivian presidential election where the candidate with circa 45% in the first round didn't win the second round, only getting 48/49%, but I don't know if it was in any way free or fair.
Yes that's right - unlike the US they'll wait for the whole country to finish voting before any pres exits get released.
It might make it fairer, but less fun to watch!
what's weirder is the votes have been coutned but no-one has leaked the results in a country the leading candidate thinks is so corrupt the military dictatorship was better
If Rd 1 really is 41/25, it will be very difficult for Haddad to win the second round, Bolsonaro will only need to add Alckmin's share and he'll be pretty much there.
Populism is not just a British, nor even a developed world phenomenon. Bolsonaro seems a fairly nasty specimen:
I see from his wiki page that Bolsonaro has been a member of 9 differently named political entities in his political career. I wonder if that is just a result of a lot of party rebrandings.
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
Well I have to confess that Latvia is the outside the "basket" of countries that I follow - it votes on a Saturday and is very fragmented and that's all I know.
But if you can't have niche discussions on Sunday night on PB where can you?
Wow, showing the pictures form London where thousands of Brazilians voted earlier. Voting is compulsory in Brazil, but I do not know if that includes citizens abroad
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
Yes but he does that to everyone who doesn't agree with him.
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
Yes but he does that to everyone who doesn't agree with him.
He is quite the most stupid President the US could have elected and he does not look like he is going anywhere, sadly
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
'Jean-Claude, a great business person, head of the European Union,” Trump said. “Jean-Claude my friend. I’d say, ‘Jean-Claude, we want to make a deal.'”
“He goes, ‘No, no, no. We are very happy,'” Trump said, slightly rolling the “r” and dropping the “h” and drawing out the “pee” in “happy” for emphasis'
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
Yes but he does that to everyone who doesn't agree with him.
He is quite the most stupid President the US could have elected and he does not look like he is going anywhere, sadly
Trump is no intellectual but he is sharp, Rubio was the thickest candidate the US could have elected in 2016
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
"Do you want Total War?" Goebbels in 1943, receiving rapturous applause from those present.
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
Yes but he does that to everyone who doesn't agree with him.
He is quite the most stupid President the US could have elected and he does not look like he is going anywhere, sadly
Trump is no intellectual but he is sharp, Rubio was the thickest candidate the US could have elected in 2016
Trump is quite the most divisive objectionable person to hold the office
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
"Do you want Total War?" Goebbels in 1943, receiving rapturous applause from those present.
I hope that is an extreme example, the word there is hope
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
Yes but he does that to everyone who doesn't agree with him.
He is quite the most stupid President the US could have elected and he does not look like he is going anywhere, sadly
Trump is no intellectual but he is sharp, Rubio was the thickest candidate the US could have elected in 2016
Trump is quite the most divisive objectionable person to hold the office
Maybe but that is different from being the stupidest
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
My recollection is the other parties usually find a way to group to prevent the russian minority party with the most seats being in government.
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
Yes but he does that to everyone who doesn't agree with him.
He is quite the most stupid President the US could have elected and he does not look like he is going anywhere, sadly
Trump is no intellectual but he is sharp, Rubio was the thickest candidate the US could have elected in 2016
Trump is quite the most divisive objectionable person to hold the office
Maybe but that is different from being the stupidest
I do not know anything about Latvian politics but is it not more evidence that next years EU elections could provide a very different commission with lots of hard right and left meps replacing those in the centre
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
The Commission isn't proportional to Parliament - they are appointed by the national governments and Parliament says yea or nay. I can see Hungary proposing someone controversial, maybe Italy, but that's probably it.
The reason Harmony may get into government this time is that the other parties include overt homophobes and keen LGBT supporters- it's hard to see them teaming up. Also, Harmony has made an effort to be non-sectarian with several leading non-Russian candidates, and politically they are centrists, neither latter-day commnuists nor Putin fans, so I suspect the refusal to work with them in government will be less strong.
Harmony is not a terrible name for a party - perhaps that new centrist that is totally going to happen and not at all a pipe dream could take that as their name?
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Diplomatic impunity more like.
There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.
A Google of diplomatic immunity for murder suggests that actually, there is.
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Diplomatic impunity more like.
There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.
A Google of diplomatic immunity for murder suggests that actually, there is.
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Diplomatic impunity more like.
There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.
Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Diplomatic impunity more like.
There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.
Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.
CPS guidance says the following:
“Criminal immunity is only afforded to the Service Staff at foreign diplomatic or foreign London-based consular missions in respect of the acts performed in the course of their duties. However, such staff are not inviolable.”
Murder is not an act performed in the course of a diplomat’s duties.
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Diplomatic impunity more like.
There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.
Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.
CPS guidance says the following:
“Criminal immunity is only afforded to the Service Staff at foreign diplomatic or foreign London-based consular missions in respect of the acts performed in the course of their duties. However, such staff are not inviolable.”
Murder is not an act performed in the course of a diplomat’s duties.
Are you sure? I mean James Bond never seems to end up in court
Although winning Rd 1 and losing Rd 2 must be fairly rare.
Here's one for people - change of governing party (excluding technocrats) without an election? (or revolution obv)
Post WW2 I can only think of W Germany 1982 and Spain 2018 - any other examples?
There have been a few coalition governments where the PM has switched from one to the other, in Scandanavia for example, or where coalition parties have joined/left without an election
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Diplomatic impunity more like.
There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.
Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.
CPS guidance says the following:
“Criminal immunity is only afforded to the Service Staff at foreign diplomatic or foreign London-based consular missions in respect of the acts performed in the course of their duties. However, such staff are not inviolable.”
Murder is not an act performed in the course of a diplomat’s duties.
I have some vague memory of someone with diplomatic immunity who killed someone drink driving, pretty open and shut case but the diplomats country chose to withdraw his immunity rather than it being automatically voided by his actions.
I'd guess you could given enough time, resources and with strong evidence of guilt get it legally removed without the diplomats nations consent but I assume that would not be easy to do.
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Diplomatic impunity more like.
There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.
Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.
CPS guidance says the following:
“Criminal immunity is only afforded to the Service Staff at foreign diplomatic or foreign London-based consular missions in respect of the acts performed in the course of their duties. However, such staff are not inviolable.”
Murder is not an act performed in the course of a diplomat’s duties.
Are you sure? I mean James Bond never seems to end up in court
I know, it’s the lack of legal realism in those films that ruin them for me .......
Honestly think BF is either going loopy or there's some info out there I'm missing. Are the final 20% or votes from Haddad strongholds? Even if he slipped to 45% or slightly less this has still *surely* improved Bolsonaro's chances from the polls, but he's back on BF to barely shorter than when the night started!
I've reversed my position and am now green on Bolsonaro, red on everyone else.
Yes. It appears the final results are from Haddad areas so he's softening a bit to 47% atm, maybe 45% at the end (bang on the exit poll if so). I struggle to see how this isn't much better for him than polls suggested, and he was 1.4 before the results began.
Just checked, he's back to 1.3. I frankly thing 1.1-1.2 seems fair but on the other hand I know very little about Brazilian politics so I wouldn't like to be too bullish.
I appreciate it isn't an AV election, the anti-Bolsonaro parties can go off and find new (i.e. more) voters for the second round - it isn't just whose voters will split where. But so can Bolsonaro, and he appears even more popular than polls predicted by quite a large margin. Those same polls had him a narrow favourite in run-offs even before this.
Yes. It appears the final results are from Haddad areas so he's softening a bit to 47% atm, maybe 45% at the end (bang on the exit poll if so). I struggle to see how this isn't much better for him than polls suggested, and he was 1.4 before the results began.
Anything could happen in the final round, which I guess explains why the odds are as they are. 3 weeks is a long time in Brazil. For example if his supporters start causing trouble all over the place it could damage his popularity.
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Diplomatic impunity more like.
There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.
Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.
CPS guidance says the following:
“Criminal immunity is only afforded to the Service Staff at foreign diplomatic or foreign London-based consular missions in respect of the acts performed in the course of their duties. However, such staff are not inviolable.”
Murder is not an act performed in the course of a diplomat’s duties.
Yes. It appears the final results are from Haddad areas so he's softening a bit to 47% atm, maybe 45% at the end (bang on the exit poll if so). I struggle to see how this isn't much better for him than polls suggested, and he was 1.4 before the results began.
Anything could happen in the final round, which I guess explains why the odds are as they are. 3 weeks is a long time in Brazil. For example if his supporters start causing trouble all over the place it could damage his popularity.
But anything could have happened in 3 weeks and two days - but two days ago he was polling around 35% in the first round and was on 1.4. Now he's gotten 45-47% in the first round and he's just 1.3? I just don't buy it. That's a move from 70% likely to win to 75% likely.
But then again, I really don't know much about this situation so I might just be missing something.
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Yes. It appears the final results are from Haddad areas so he's softening a bit to 47% atm, maybe 45% at the end (bang on the exit poll if so). I struggle to see how this isn't much better for him than polls suggested, and he was 1.4 before the results began.
Anything could happen in the final round, which I guess explains why the odds are as they are. 3 weeks is a long time in Brazil. For example if his supporters start causing trouble all over the place it could damage his popularity.
But anything could have happened in 3 weeks and two days - but two days ago he was polling around 35% in the first round and was on 1.4. Now he's gotten 45-47% in the first round and he's just 1.3? I just don't buy it. That's a move from 70% likely to win to 75% likely.
But then again, I really don't know much about this situation so I might just be missing something.
He could go down in the next 3 weeks in the same way he went up in the previous 3.
Yes. It appears the final results are from Haddad areas so he's softening a bit to 47% atm, maybe 45% at the end (bang on the exit poll if so). I struggle to see how this isn't much better for him than polls suggested, and he was 1.4 before the results began.
Anything could happen in the final round, which I guess explains why the odds are as they are. 3 weeks is a long time in Brazil. For example if his supporters start causing trouble all over the place it could damage his popularity.
But anything could have happened in 3 weeks and two days - but two days ago he was polling around 35% in the first round and was on 1.4. Now he's gotten 45-47% in the first round and he's just 1.3? I just don't buy it. That's a move from 70% likely to win to 75% likely.
But then again, I really don't know much about this situation so I might just be missing something.
He could go down in the next 3 weeks in the same way he went up in the previous 3.
Sure, it isn't a done deal. But are his chances not much better at 47% than 35% in the first round?
The journalist murdered at the Saudi embassy has Saudi dissidents absolutely shitting themselves. People are moving house and disappearing off the grid.
Will our government stop arms sales to the Saudis over this, even if they will not for the Yemen war crimes?
That's a lot of money.
We expected other countries to apply sanctions over Salisbury.
I was commenting on the likelihood of something happening. I think we all knew the answer.
Yes, but is it OK to tolerate the Saudis doing this, while we complain over Putin doing the same?
Can you not see a dangerous international trend developing?
Do we (and by we, I mean our government) complain about Putin doing the same?
I do seem to recall that we objected to Putin bumping off opposition activists abroad.
I know it's splitting hairs, but isn't a consulate technically Saudi soil?
Having done some digging it would seem that it is not Saudi soil, but it does have diplomatic immunity.
Diplomatic impunity more like.
There is no diplomatic immunity for murder.
Yes there is it would just be expected to be waived.
CPS guidance says the following:
“Criminal immunity is only afforded to the Service Staff at foreign diplomatic or foreign London-based consular missions in respect of the acts performed in the course of their duties. However, such staff are not inviolable.”
Murder is not an act performed in the course of a diplomat’s duties.
In some unexpectedly happy news, Steve Richards has a new series out on BBC Parliament. It's called "Reflections" (cf his previous "Turning Points") and you can find it here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/b0bkyrx5
Comments
Under 30% - Haddad favourite
30-35% - Tight but Haddad favourite
35-40% - Tight but Bolsonaro favourite
Over 40% - Bolsonaro solid favourite unless run-off polls show a big surge in stop-Bolsonaro voters.
It might make it fairer, but less fun to watch!
edit: one of his sons, apparently he has a few
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/06/homophobic-mismogynist-racist-brazil-jair-bolsonaro
I presume we discussed ad infinitum and indeed ad nauseam the results of the Latvian General Election:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latvian_parliamentary_election,_2018
The Party representing the Russian minority comes out on top but the confusing and turbulent nature of Latvian conservative and liberal politics has left the New Conservative Party (pro EU) with 16 seats and a new Liberal grouping with 13 seats with the other big winners the "Who Owns The State?" party also with 16 seats. These three blocs are all new to the Saeima and have won 45 seats between them.
The big losers are the Liepaja Party of the Prime Minister which has lost 10 of its 21 seats and the centre-right Unity Party which is part of the EPP grouping and lost 15 of its 23 seats.
I'm going to find somewhere dark and have a lie-down....
What do Cardiff and TSE have in common?
(urgh.)
But if you can't have niche discussions on Sunday night on PB where can you?
See Trump has today launched a full on attack on Junckers and the EU with his threat of 25% taxes on German cars receiving rapturous applause from those present
He was mimicking Junkers and generally expressing complete disdain for the EU
Argentina
Australia
Belgium
Canada
Denmark
Finland
Greece
India
Indonesia
Israel
Portugal
South Africa
Switzerland
“He goes, ‘No, no, no. We are very happy,'” Trump said, slightly rolling the “r” and dropping the “h” and drawing out the “pee” in “happy” for emphasis'
https://www.politico.eu/article/no-no-no-donald-trump-tries-out-jean-claude-juncker-accent/
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/gop-debate-christie-rubio-square-off-fiery-exchange/story?id=36763275
So let's see if that's true.
One of the great things about election days/nights is separating the fake rumours from the real ones.
Ciro Gomes 369 votos
J. Bolsonaro 366 votos
J. Amoedo 145 votos
F. Haddad 95 votos
Marina Silva 37 votos
Geraldo Alckmin 22 votos
G. Boulos 22 votos
Álvaro Dias 7 votos
Daciolo 2 votos
João Goulart 2 votos
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resultados_da_eleição_presidencial_no_Brasil_em_2014
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-45777681
The Chinese state is starting to 'disappear' prominent figures in a more open way. And that is never good.
Apparently Bolsonaro is at 49% in current vote count, Haddad 26% with 53% counted.
is slow at the moment but will keep looking around - want to see vote count in the states too.
Looks like no victory tonight. But ow low does it have to go for Haddad to have any chance????
I think he has to be below 45% for Haddad to have any chance.
EDIT: Sorry, thought you just meant Brazil.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maldivian_presidential_election,_2013
Has anyone ever gone backwards after winning the first round and almost winning outright?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_1974#Result
“Criminal immunity is only afforded to the Service Staff at foreign diplomatic or foreign London-based consular missions in respect of the acts performed in the course of their duties. However, such staff are not inviolable.”
Murder is not an act performed in the course of a diplomat’s duties.
Although winning Rd 1 and losing Rd 2 must be fairly rare.
Here's one for people - change of governing party (excluding technocrats) without an election? (or revolution obv)
Post WW2 I can only think of W Germany 1982 and Spain 2018 - any other examples?
same again but other way round re candidates v 1974
But in general I think the incoming party wants to get a mandate, rather than winning by getting some defections.
https://placar.eleicoes.uol.com.br/2018/1turno/presidente-por-estado/
and with maps!!
https://politica.estadao.com.br/eleicoes/2018/cobertura-votacao-apuracao/primeiro-turno/presidente
Outside of Belgium (!) there's Denmark 2015 and Austria 1999.
https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2018/apuracao/presidente.ghtml
Bolsonaro's vote likely to dip but only to 46.7% +/-1 according to my calculations
I'd guess you could given enough time, resources and with strong evidence of guilt get it legally removed without the diplomats nations consent but I assume that would not be easy to do.
I've reversed my position and am now green on Bolsonaro, red on everyone else.
But then again, I really don't know much about this situation so I might just be missing something.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwC_IaY3BmY