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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the next CON leader betting market has moved since last ye

I love these historical charts of Betfair trades from Betdata.io and they are particularly interesting when you have events like the party conferences.
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https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1047846536896569344
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656
Disclosure: my only current red numbers on either next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader are Jeremy Corbyn, David Miliband and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Only Jeremy Corbyn causes me any concern and as I posted this morning I still see him as a clear lay at current prices.
gotcha.
The top 8 picks were:
Elizabeth Warren
Kamala Harris
Kirsten Gillibrand
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Cory Booker
Beto O’Rourke
Eric Holder
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-third-ish-2020-democratic-primary-draft-got-weird/?ex_cid=538twitter
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1047851323180429312
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1047850125161377793
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047753665208111104
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/
.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"
So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?
Sometimes things can be done but are economically infeasiable.
And sometimes no one has ever had the need and so the first attempt is likely to be a bit of a test case (to put it mildly)
Never buy "Version zero" of anything is good advice in the technology business
They are known for 'never, never, never' rather than 'Oh go on then, why not...'
And what has that to do with me making a sarcastic reply to a rhetorical question from Gareth?
If he had said "Yes it can be done because it currently works well between country xxxx and country zzzz" then it would carry more force than a mere opinion.
Besides, I thought we had had enough of experts?
NI sends £4 bn to RoI and imports £1.3 bn
looking at the volume of trade the RoI has the bigger problem
together thats £5bn of trade which is less than 1% of UK EU trade
half of it is farm goods
https://fullfact.org/europe/irish-border-trade/
Javid is Nosferatu voiced by Amy Poehler.
Either of those plays straight into hands of Labour, Hunts NHS record, and, well it’s established fact of all politics, no hair, no chance. If you have any doubt what I am saying, the smoking gun is their conference speeches, Javid declaring war on hope, Hunt channeling his inner Boris and making the biggest gaff of the entire rally.
It has to be Patel. It will be Patel. From out between the tired and fading old big beasts of eurosceptism she will, with their endorsements, spring like a tiger. Imagine May v Ledsome, only it ain’t Leadsom it’s Patel, and she ain’t rolling over.
If you have any respect or admiration for Margaret Thatcher, your vote has to go to Patel. Whatever Maggie had, Patel has in spades. Interviews, speeches, knows her subject, knows her mind, it all adds up to confidence, drive to win and smack of firm leadership. Imagine the day the Conservative Party make Patel PM, you can go to your cocoa and goodnights sleep knowing Britain has its Thatcher back. Just in time too.
Some of you are pretty switched on, surely it can’t just be me who sees this?
If you think it is the answer to the NI problem, I wish you good luck with it, but I am not going waste any more time on pie-in-the-sky stuff.
"If you have nothing to say, or, rather, something extremely stupid and obvious, say it, but in a 'plonking' tone of voice - ie roundly, but hollowly and dogmatically."—Stephen Potter, In a book called Lifemanship, written in 1950
(Which is perhaps slightly unfair, particularly the 'stupid', but it nonetheless seems quite apposite.)
Edit: And an incompetent liar based on her initial apology which was then easily shown to be a lie.
Her performance on the death penalty question on QT is perhaps the most poorly constructed argument I've ever seen a politician give. For those that haven't seen it...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DrsVhzbLzU
I was more interested in the message than the messenger.
If true, it might explain Macron's hard line stance in the belief he can force us to back down. That could end badly for all concerned.
Also she thinks I’m a supporter!
He really is that crap.
He realises no UK means theres nobody he can call on to stand up to Germany. France is just a a vassal and he has pissed off half of Europe while doing Merkels bidding.
They agreed to have a limited further investigation. Which is what they got.
Now it was the wrong kind of 'limited'
It is clear what game they are playing. They will continue to move the goalposts as long as they possibly can.
Feinstein hasn't even read it in full - but has still decided it isn't enough.
For all the faults of the GOP, the Dems have played Dr Ford for political gain and have made it harder for other victims of abuse to come forward.
The mistake you are making is just using that one piece of QT to make your point. We both know there’s a whole lot more to be said than that.
I know why it’s Patel, a Thatcher style leader needed, because I know exactly what is wrong with the Tories at the moment, the reason why they are heading for the U bend and the great drain of opposition: they are listening to voters too much on the doorsteps. Simples.
http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/04/esteri/moscovici-lue-rischia-di-implodere-con-salvini-orban-e-le-pen-ml1xJhP4iRU8dOkU2ZOdeK/pagina.html
the EU risks implosion with Salvini Orban and LePen
Must be an election in the wind
Today's Press Conference in the Hague illustrates how much help European countries get from UK Intelligence - not that Druncker acknowledged that in his 'The EU is on top of this' statement.
It's pretty clear what game was played with the limits on the 'investigation', too, if they couldn't even talk to this guy:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/brett-kavanaugh-college-roommate-jamie-roche.html
In 1983, I was one of Brett Kavanaugh’s freshman roommates at Yale University. About two weeks ago I came forward to lend my support to my friend Deborah Ramirez, who says Brett sexually assaulted her at a party in a dorm suite. I did this because I believe Debbie.
Now the FBI is investigating this incident. I am willing to speak with them about my experiences at Yale with both Debbie and Brett. I would tell them this: Brett Kavanaugh stood up under oath and lied about his drinking and about the meaning of words in his yearbook. He did so baldly, without hesitation or reservation…
If you want a Thatcherite, I think you can do better. Liz Truss perhaps.
Whodathunkit?