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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the next CON leader betting market has moved since last year’s Conference

I love these historical charts of Betfair trades from Betdata.io and they are particularly interesting when you have events like the party conferences.

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SquareRoot

first

CarlottaVance

Second...

CarlottaVance

FPT:

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1047846536896569344

CarlottaVance

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Richard_Nabavi

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Seems a fair summary. Raab is still a newbie, of course, and might improve as he gets more top-level experience.

Morris_Dancer

Javid or Hunt both entirely possible, but think Mordaunt would clearly be the best.

Andy_Cooke

Whenever I write a longer comment, I think I'm going to end it with: "Oh, by the way, New Thread just coming..."

OldKingCole

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

Morris_Dancer

King Cole, MPs will determine the final two. So it's a necessary but not sufficient step to get support from them.

Richard_Nabavi

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

GarethoftheVale2

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

RobD

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

OldKingCole

Morris_Dancer said:

King Cole, MPs will determine the final two. So it's a necessary but not sufficient step to get support from them.

Of course. Didn’t suggest otherwise.

Richard_Nabavi

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Seems a fair summary. Raab is still a newbie, of course, and might improve as he gets more top-level experience.

I've got him as a red number in my book, that might be wrong but he doesn't particularly impress me.

OldKingCole

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

Good point. I don’t recall a bald Labour leader, although Kinnock was heading that way.

dixiedean

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

Good point. I don’t recall a bald Labour leader, although Kinnock was heading that way.

Attlee?

Sean_F

CarlottaVance said:

FPT:

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1047846536896569344

He seems to be destined to be even less popular than Hollande, which is saying something.

Sean_F

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

He does rather resemble Dr. Evil.

OldKingCole

dixiedean said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

Good point. I don’t recall a bald Labour leader, although Kinnock was heading that way.

Attlee?

Yup. Ought have remembered him.

AlastairMeeks

I doubt that the party conference has made the slightest difference to Theresa May's prospects or anyone else's. No one shone and no one in two weeks' time will remember or care.

Disclosure: my only current red numbers on either next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader are Jeremy Corbyn, David Miliband and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Only Jeremy Corbyn causes me any concern and as I posted this morning I still see him as a clear lay at current prices.

tpfkar

AlastairMeeks said:

I doubt that the party conference has made the slightest difference to Theresa May's prospects or anyone else's. No one shone and no one in two weeks' time will remember or care.

Disclosure: my only current red numbers on either next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader are Jeremy Corbyn, David Miliband and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Only Jeremy Corbyn causes me any concern and as I posted this morning I still see him as a clear lay at current prices.

For next Conservative leader?! I should think so!

Beverley_C

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

He does rather resemble Dr. Evil.

I have heard it said that US Presidents are usually elected on the basis of height (taller one wins) and then hairstyle. I presume Hilary was shorter than Trump because she had hair whereas Mr Trump appears to have a misplaced lemming or baby sloth on his head.

RobD

AlastairMeeks said:

I doubt that the party conference has made the slightest difference to Theresa May's prospects or anyone else's. No one shone and no one in two weeks' time will remember or care.

Disclosure: my only current red numbers on either next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader are Jeremy Corbyn, David Miliband and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Only Jeremy Corbyn causes me any concern and as I posted this morning I still see him as a clear lay at current prices.

The only thing that is saving her is that her challengers all appear crap.

Beverley_C

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

Good point. I don’t recall a bald Labour leader, although Kinnock was heading that way.

Michael Foot did not lack hair, so being follically bumptious is obviously not a help given Foot's ... errr... "policies"

BannedInParis

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

Good point. I don’t recall a bald Labour leader, although Kinnock was heading that way.

...

BannedInParis

oh ... BALD.

gotcha.

Tissue_Price

538 have done another of their Democratic primary "drafts", always worth reading.

The top 8 picks were:

Elizabeth Warren
Kamala Harris
Kirsten Gillibrand
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Cory Booker
Beto O’Rourke
Eric Holder

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-third-ish-2020-democratic-primary-draft-got-weird/?ex_cid=538twitter

RobD

BannedInParis said:

oh ... BALD.

gotcha.

Your coat, sir.

CarlottaVance

Tusk's 'Canada+++' not passing uncommented upon:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1047851323180429312

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1047850125161377793

Sean_F

Beverley_C said:

Sean_F said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

He does rather resemble Dr. Evil.

I have heard it said that US Presidents are usually elected on the basis of height (taller one wins) and then hairstyle. I presume Hilary was shorter than Trump because she had hair whereas Mr Trump appears to have a misplaced lemming or baby sloth on his head.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/3b/98/2b/3b982bd7ba9e9a92b61423bdd4502804.jpg

CarlottaVance

Interesting....

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047753665208111104

Sandpit

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Beverley_C

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

Who?

rcs1000

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Is Philip a Tory minister?

rcs1000

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

Good point. I don’t recall a bald Labour leader, although Kinnock was heading that way.

He was using faux baldness to distract from being a finger.

RobD

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

CarlottaVance

Beverley_C said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

Who?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__GkNPKqeQ

anothernick

dixiedean said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

Good point. I don’t recall a bald Labour leader, although Kinnock was heading that way.

Attlee?

John Smith

OldKingCole

anothernick said:

dixiedean said:

OldKingCole said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

Good point. I don’t recall a bald Labour leader, although Kinnock was heading that way.

Attlee?

John Smith

Indeed. Memory failing.

Beverley_C

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

Who?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__GkNPKqeQ

Perhaps I should have tagged it "[Sarcasm alert]"

FrancisUrquhart

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I doubt that the party conference has made the slightest difference to Theresa May's prospects or anyone else's. No one shone and no one in two weeks' time will remember or care.

Disclosure: my only current red numbers on either next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader are Jeremy Corbyn, David Miliband and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Only Jeremy Corbyn causes me any concern and as I posted this morning I still see him as a clear lay at current prices.

The only thing that is saving her is that her challengers all appear crap.

And also labour aren’t marching ahead in the polls because beardy grandpa act doesn’t work on the oldies.

CarlottaVance

Beverley_C said:

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

Who?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__GkNPKqeQ

Perhaps I should have tagged it "[Sarcasm alert]"

Have you listened to his speech?

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I doubt that the party conference has made the slightest difference to Theresa May's prospects or anyone else's. No one shone and no one in two weeks' time will remember or care.

Disclosure: my only current red numbers on either next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader are Jeremy Corbyn, David Miliband and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Only Jeremy Corbyn causes me any concern and as I posted this morning I still see him as a clear lay at current prices.

The only thing that is saving her is that her challengers all appear crap.

And also labour aren’t marching ahead in the polls because beardy grandpa act doesn’t work on the oldies.

Don’t worry, they’ll all shuffle off this mortal coil eventually.... or so we are constantly told.

Beverley_C

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

rkrkrk

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

Who?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__GkNPKqeQ

He has a fantastic voice. Perhaps like a mixture of Brian Blessed and a newsreader from the 1960s.

RobD

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

So because something hasn’t been done means it can’t be done?

logical_song

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

So because something hasn’t been done means it can’t be done?

... in 5 months?

Beverley_C

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

So because something hasn’t been done means it can’t be done?

Sometimes that is indeed the case. Things that cannot BE done do not GET done.

Sometimes things can be done but are economically infeasiable.

And sometimes no one has ever had the need and so the first attempt is likely to be a bit of a test case (to put it mildly)

Never buy "Version zero" of anything is good advice in the technology business

RobD

logical_song said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

So because something hasn’t been done means it can’t be done?

... in 5 months?

After the transition, surely?

RobD

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

So because something hasn’t been done means it can’t be done?

Sometimes that is indeed the case. Things that cannot BE done do not GET done.

Sometimes things can be done but are economically infeasiable.

And sometimes no one has ever had the need and so the first attempt is likely to be a bit of a test case (to put it mildly)

Never buy "Version zero" of anything is good advice in the technology business

But wasn’t one of his main conclusions that it can be done?

rottenborough

CarlottaVance said:

Tusk's 'Canada+++' not passing uncommented upon:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1047851323180429312

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1047850125161377793

Cannot happen. Unless DUP cave in.

They are known for 'never, never, never' rather than 'Oh go on then, why not...'

Beverley_C

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

Who?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__GkNPKqeQ

Perhaps I should have tagged it "[Sarcasm alert]"

Have you listened to his speech?

Yes.

And what has that to do with me making a sarcastic reply to a rhetorical question from Gareth?

OldKingCole

rkrkrk said:

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

Who?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__GkNPKqeQ

He has a fantastic voice. Perhaps like a mixture of Brian Blessed and a newsreader from the 1960s.

Very, very good speaker. Of course he’s a barrister, with some interesting cases in his past.

Beverley_C

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

So because something hasn’t been done means it can’t be done?

Sometimes that is indeed the case. Things that cannot BE done do not GET done.

Sometimes things can be done but are economically infeasiable.

And sometimes no one has ever had the need and so the first attempt is likely to be a bit of a test case (to put it mildly)

Never buy "Version zero" of anything is good advice in the technology business

But wasn’t one of his main conclusions that it can be done?

He SAYS it can be done, but it adds that no one has ever done. So it is an opinion not a fact and experts can be wrong.

If he had said "Yes it can be done because it currently works well between country xxxx and country zzzz" then it would carry more force than a mere opinion.

Besides, I thought we had had enough of experts?

felix

Richard_Nabavi said:

RobD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

OldKingCole said:

Javid may well do well with the MP’s, but I’m not sure that the members are ready for him yet. Of course Disraeli was Conservative, so that might not be the case, although of course the membership had no role in leadership then.

You seem to be accusing members of racism, which is both offensive and silly. Members would be fine with Javid in that respect, but have doubts about how effective he was as Business Sec. He seems to be doing better as Home Sec, though, so he's definitely a main contender. He's not the world's most inspiring speaker, however.

Perhaps he was referring to Javid’s baldness?

We're a party dedicated to eliminating all kinds of follicularism, embracing diversity from William Hague to Boris.

So we're not ruling out OGH then?

AlastairMeeks

rottenborough said:

CarlottaVance said:

Tusk's 'Canada+++' not passing uncommented upon:

https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1047851323180429312

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1047850125161377793

Cannot happen. Unless DUP cave in.

They are known for 'never, never, never' rather than 'Oh go on then, why not...'

It can if an alternative source of votes is found in Parliament. The bigger problem is that it would require large numbers of currently hostile Conservative MPs to cave in. That's much less likely.

rkrkrk

OldKingCole said:

rkrkrk said:

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

Who?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__GkNPKqeQ

He has a fantastic voice. Perhaps like a mixture of Brian Blessed and a newsreader from the 1960s.

Very, very good speaker. Of course he’s a barrister, with some interesting cases in his past.

Yes. The speech was good too, although the bit at the end about Milton, eagles and methinks lost me a bit.

RobD

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

So because something hasn’t been done means it can’t be done?

Sometimes that is indeed the case. Things that cannot BE done do not GET done.

Sometimes things can be done but are economically infeasiable.

And sometimes no one has ever had the need and so the first attempt is likely to be a bit of a test case (to put it mildly)

Never buy "Version zero" of anything is good advice in the technology business

But wasn’t one of his main conclusions that it can be done?

He SAYS it can be done, but it adds that no one has ever done. So it is an opinion not a fact and experts can be wrong.

If he had said "Yes it can be done because it currently works well between country xxxx and country zzzz" then it would carry more force than a mere opinion.

Besides, I thought we had had enough of experts?

So in his opinion, as an expert, it can be done? Glad we cleared that up.

Alanbrooke

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

So because something hasn’t been done means it can’t be done?

Sometimes that is indeed the case. Things that cannot BE done do not GET done.

Sometimes things can be done but are economically infeasiable.

And sometimes no one has ever had the need and so the first attempt is likely to be a bit of a test case (to put it mildly)

Never buy "Version zero" of anything is good advice in the technology business

all these claims lack numbers

NI sends £4 bn to RoI and imports £1.3 bn

looking at the volume of trade the RoI has the bigger problem

together thats £5bn of trade which is less than 1% of UK EU trade

half of it is farm goods

https://fullfact.org/europe/irish-border-trade/

LordOfReason

Morris_Dancer said:

Javid or Hunt both entirely possible, but think Mordaunt would clearly be the best.

Hunt is so beta-male he makes Millifandom look like Bacchanalia.

Javid is Nosferatu voiced by Amy Poehler.

Either of those plays straight into hands of Labour, Hunts NHS record, and, well it’s established fact of all politics, no hair, no chance. If you have any doubt what I am saying, the smoking gun is their conference speeches, Javid declaring war on hope, Hunt channeling his inner Boris and making the biggest gaff of the entire rally.

It has to be Patel. It will be Patel. From out between the tired and fading old big beasts of eurosceptism she will, with their endorsements, spring like a tiger. Imagine May v Ledsome, only it ain’t Leadsom it’s Patel, and she ain’t rolling over.

If you have any respect or admiration for Margaret Thatcher, your vote has to go to Patel. Whatever Maggie had, Patel has in spades. Interviews, speeches, knows her subject, knows her mind, it all adds up to confidence, drive to win and smack of firm leadership. Imagine the day the Conservative Party make Patel PM, you can go to your cocoa and goodnights sleep knowing Britain has its Thatcher back. Just in time too.

Some of you are pretty switched on, surely it can’t just be me who sees this?

Nigelb

Tissue_Price said:

538 have done another of their Democratic primary "drafts", always worth reading.

The top 8 picks were:

Elizabeth Warren
Kamala Harris
Kirsten Gillibrand
Joe Biden
Bernie Sanders
Cory Booker
Beto O’Rourke
Eric Holder

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-third-ish-2020-democratic-primary-draft-got-weird/?ex_cid=538twitter

Note how low Hickenlooper came...

Beverley_C

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

So because something hasn’t been done means it can’t be done?

Sometimes that is indeed the case. Things that cannot BE done do not GET done.

Sometimes things can be done but are economically infeasiable.

And sometimes no one has ever had the need and so the first attempt is likely to be a bit of a test case (to put it mildly)

Never buy "Version zero" of anything is good advice in the technology business

But wasn’t one of his main conclusions that it can be done?

He SAYS it can be done, but it adds that no one has ever done. So it is an opinion not a fact and experts can be wrong.

If he had said "Yes it can be done because it currently works well between country xxxx and country zzzz" then it would carry more force than a mere opinion.

Besides, I thought we had had enough of experts?

So in his opinion, as an expert, it can be done? Glad we cleared that up.

Suit yourself...

If you think it is the answer to the NI problem, I wish you good luck with it, but I am not going waste any more time on pie-in-the-sky stuff.

Morris_Dancer

Lord of Reason, I'd be peeved if it were Patel, as I'd previously backed her to succeed Cameron.

RobD

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Beverley_C said:

RobD said:

Sandpit said:

Former head of World Customs Organisation, hired by the EU to work on NI border, says that a technological solution is perfectly feasible with existing infrastructure, and the only impediments are politics and ideology.
https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2018/04/ultra-hi-tech-invisible-irish-border-perfectly-doable-ex-customs-chief-says/

Who’d have thunk it?

"Allie Rennison, the Institute of Directors’ Brexit expert, told the conference, which was attended by figures from the region’s manufacturing sector, that avoiding a hard border with no physical infrastructure would “almost certainly require more heavy lifting and a higher cost burden [to be] borne by businesses"

.... he [Karlsson] acknowledged that a fully operational smart border is not currently in use anywhere in the world"

So, it is a costly but workable solution that no one has ever done yet?

So because something hasn’t been done means it can’t be done?

Sometimes that is indeed the case. Things that cannot BE done do not GET done.

Sometimes things can be done but are economically infeasiable.

And sometimes no one has ever had the need and so the first attempt is likely to be a bit of a test case (to put it mildly)

Never buy "Version zero" of anything is good advice in the technology business

But wasn’t one of his main conclusions that it can be done?

He SAYS it can be done, but it adds that no one has ever done. So it is an opinion not a fact and experts can be wrong.

If he had said "Yes it can be done because it currently works well between country xxxx and country zzzz" then it would carry more force than a mere opinion.

Besides, I thought we had had enough of experts?

So in his opinion, as an expert, it can be done? Glad we cleared that up.

Suit yourself...

If you think it is the answer to the NI problem, I wish you good luck with it, but I am not going waste any more time on pie-in-the-sky stuff.

Luckily for everyone else, both sides are still actively considering it.

RobD

LordOfReason said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Javid or Hunt both entirely possible, but think Mordaunt would clearly be the best.

Hunt is so beta-male he makes Millifandom look like Bacchanalia.

Javid is Nosferatu voiced by Amy Poehler.

Either of those plays straight into hands of Labour, Hunts NHS record, and, well it’s established fact of all politics, no hair, no chance. If you have any doubt what I am saying, the smoking gun is their conference speeches, Javid declaring war on hope, Hunt channeling his inner Boris and making the biggest gaff of the entire rally.

It has to be Patel. It will be Patel. From out between the tired and fading old big beasts of eurosceptism she will, with their endorsements, spring like a tiger. Imagine May v Ledsome, only it ain’t Leadsom it’s Patel, and she ain’t rolling over.

If you have any respect or admiration for Margaret Thatcher, your vote has to go to Patel. Whatever Maggie had, Patel has in spades. Interviews, speeches, knows her subject, knows her mind, it all adds up to confidence, drive to win and smack of firm leadership. Imagine the day the Conservative Party make Patel PM, you can go to your cocoa and goodnights sleep knowing Britain has its Thatcher back. Just in time too.

Some of you are pretty switched on, surely it can’t just be me who sees this?

A pity she isn’t in Cabinet, which might make things a bit more difficult?

Nigelb

rkrkrk said:

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

Who?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__GkNPKqeQ

He has a fantastic voice. Perhaps like a mixture of Brian Blessed and a newsreader from the 1960s.

More like a throwback to the 50s...

"If you have nothing to say, or, rather, something extremely stupid and obvious, say it, but in a 'plonking' tone of voice - ie roundly, but hollowly and dogmatically."—Stephen Potter, In a book called Lifemanship, written in 1950

(Which is perhaps slightly unfair, particularly the 'stupid', but it nonetheless seems quite apposite.)

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

CarlottaVance

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Is Philip a Tory minister?

Ho ho. That said he's very active on the phone bank operation and provides unfiltered feedback on what voters are saying.

AlastairMeeks

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

You can see why he calls himself @toryboypierce

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

Somebody tell him we might yet stay - if France leaves.

rkrkrk

LordOfReason said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Javid or Hunt both entirely possible, but think Mordaunt would clearly be the best.

Hunt is so beta-male he makes Millifandom look like Bacchanalia.

Javid is Nosferatu voiced by Amy Poehler.

Either of those plays straight into hands of Labour, Hunts NHS record, and, well it’s established fact of all politics, no hair, no chance. If you have any doubt what I am saying, the smoking gun is their conference speeches, Javid declaring war on hope, Hunt channeling his inner Boris and making the biggest gaff of the entire rally.

It has to be Patel. It will be Patel. From out between the tired and fading old big beasts of eurosceptism she will, with their endorsements, spring like a tiger. Imagine May v Ledsome, only it ain’t Leadsom it’s Patel, and she ain’t rolling over.

If you have any respect or admiration for Margaret Thatcher, your vote has to go to Patel. Whatever Maggie had, Patel has in spades. Interviews, speeches, knows her subject, knows her mind, it all adds up to confidence, drive to win and smack of firm leadership. Imagine the day the Conservative Party make Patel PM, you can go to your cocoa and goodnights sleep knowing Britain has its Thatcher back. Just in time too.

Some of you are pretty switched on, surely it can’t just be me who sees this?

I honestly think Priti Patel is the weakest person mentioned as a potential leader by a long, long way. She is also disloyal as demonstrated by what kicked her out of government.

Edit: And an incompetent liar based on her initial apology which was then easily shown to be a lie.

RobD

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

You can see why he calls himself @toryboypierce

From this tweet? I don’t see why myself.

AllyPally_Rob

LordOfReason said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Javid or Hunt both entirely possible, but think Mordaunt would clearly be the best.

Hunt is so beta-male he makes Millifandom look like Bacchanalia.

Javid is Nosferatu voiced by Amy Poehler.

Either of those plays straight into hands of Labour, Hunts NHS record, and, well it’s established fact of all politics, no hair, no chance. If you have any doubt what I am saying, the smoking gun is their conference speeches, Javid declaring war on hope, Hunt channeling his inner Boris and making the biggest gaff of the entire rally.

It has to be Patel. It will be Patel. From out between the tired and fading old big beasts of eurosceptism she will, with their endorsements, spring like a tiger. Imagine May v Ledsome, only it ain’t Leadsom it’s Patel, and she ain’t rolling over.

If you have any respect or admiration for Margaret Thatcher, your vote has to go to Patel. Whatever Maggie had, Patel has in spades. Interviews, speeches, knows her subject, knows her mind, it all adds up to confidence, drive to win and smack of firm leadership. Imagine the day the Conservative Party make Patel PM, you can go to your cocoa and goodnights sleep knowing Britain has its Thatcher back. Just in time too.

Some of you are pretty switched on, surely it can’t just be me who sees this?

Do you mean Priti Patel?!

Her performance on the death penalty question on QT is perhaps the most poorly constructed argument I've ever seen a politician give. For those that haven't seen it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DrsVhzbLzU

CarlottaVance

Beverley_C said:

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

CarlottaVance said:

Beverley_C said:

GarethoftheVale2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

On topic:

https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1047771054624710656

Has he forgotten Geoffrey Cox? :-)

Who?

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y__GkNPKqeQ

Perhaps I should have tagged it "[Sarcasm alert]"

Have you listened to his speech?

Yes.

And what has that to do with me making a sarcastic reply to a rhetorical question from Gareth?

Good. Always wise to 'know the enemy'! What did you think of it?

CarlottaVance

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

You can see why he calls himself @toryboypierce

I was more interested in the message than the messenger.

If true, it might explain Macron's hard line stance in the belief he can force us to back down. That could end badly for all concerned.

JohnRussell

AllyPally_Rob said:

LordOfReason said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Javid or Hunt both entirely possible, but think Mordaunt would clearly be the best.

Hunt is so beta-male he makes Millifandom look like Bacchanalia.

Javid is Nosferatu voiced by Amy Poehler.

Either of those plays straight into hands of Labour, Hunts NHS record, and, well it’s established fact of all politics, no hair, no chance. If you have any doubt what I am saying, the smoking gun is their conference speeches, Javid declaring war on hope, Hunt channeling his inner Boris and making the biggest gaff of the entire rally.

It has to be Patel. It will be Patel. From out between the tired and fading old big beasts of eurosceptism she will, with their endorsements, spring like a tiger. Imagine May v Ledsome, only it ain’t Leadsom it’s Patel, and she ain’t rolling over.

If you have any respect or admiration for Margaret Thatcher, your vote has to go to Patel. Whatever Maggie had, Patel has in spades. Interviews, speeches, knows her subject, knows her mind, it all adds up to confidence, drive to win and smack of firm leadership. Imagine the day the Conservative Party make Patel PM, you can go to your cocoa and goodnights sleep knowing Britain has its Thatcher back. Just in time too.

Some of you are pretty switched on, surely it can’t just be me who sees this?

Do you mean Priti Patel?!

Her performance on the death penalty question on QT is perhaps the most poorly constructed argument I've ever seen a politician give. For those that haven't seen it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DrsVhzbLzU

No doubt if there were a referendum on the Death Penalty won by those in favour of reverting to it, the argument over whether to use firing squad, the gallows, electric chair or lethal injection would be interpreted by the anti brigade as conclusive proof the public didn't know what it was voting for

OldKingCole

rkrkrk said:

LordOfReason said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Javid or Hunt both entirely possible, but think Mordaunt would clearly be the best.

Hunt is so beta-male he makes Millifandom look like Bacchanalia.

Javid is Nosferatu voiced by Amy Poehler.

Either of those plays straight into hands of Labour, Hunts NHS record, and, well it’s established fact of all politics, no hair, no chance. If you have any doubt what I am saying, the smoking gun is their conference speeches, Javid declaring war on hope, Hunt channeling his inner Boris and making the biggest gaff of the entire rally.

It has to be Patel. It will be Patel. From out between the tired and fading old big beasts of eurosceptism she will, with their endorsements, spring like a tiger. Imagine May v Ledsome, only it ain’t Leadsom it’s Patel, and she ain’t rolling over.

If you have any respect or admiration for Margaret Thatcher, your vote has to go to Patel. Whatever Maggie had, Patel has in spades. Interviews, speeches, knows her subject, knows her mind, it all adds up to confidence, drive to win and smack of firm leadership. Imagine the day the Conservative Party make Patel PM, you can go to your cocoa and goodnights sleep knowing Britain has its Thatcher back. Just in time too.

Some of you are pretty switched on, surely it can’t just be me who sees this?

I honestly think Priti Patel is the weakest person mentioned as a potential leader by a long, long way. She is also disloyal as demonstrated by what kicked her out of government.

Careful; she’s currently cosying up to the military in Colchester Garrison, as part of the Armed Forces Parliamentary Scheme.

Also she thinks I’m a supporter!

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

You can see why he calls himself @toryboypierce

I was more interested in the message than the messenger.

If true, it might explain Macron's hard line stance in the belief he can force us to back down. That could end badly for all concerned.

Macron thinks himself The Last Jedi.

He really is that crap.

CarlottaVance

LordOfReason said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Javid or Hunt both entirely possible, but think Mordaunt would clearly be the best.

It has to be Patel. It will be Patel.

An interesting view. Which of Patel's great ministerial achievements do you think in particular single her out for the top job?

Fysics_Teacher

AlastairMeeks said:

I doubt that the party conference has made the slightest difference to Theresa May's prospects or anyone else's. No one shone and no one in two weeks' time will remember or care.

Disclosure: my only current red numbers on either next Prime Minister or next Conservative leader are Jeremy Corbyn, David Miliband and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Only Jeremy Corbyn causes me any concern and as I posted this morning I still see him as a clear lay at current prices.

I think you are safe with David Miliband...

TOPPING

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

What do you mean "hastened our departure"? We triggered A50, we leave two years later. What had the initial timetable been which M. Macron has affected today?

AlastairMeeks

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

You can see why he calls himself @toryboypierce

I was more interested in the message than the messenger.

If true, it might explain Macron's hard line stance in the belief he can force us to back down. That could end badly for all concerned.

One should not completely exclude the possibility that he's right. It's not as though any Leaver has got a brilliant plan. At some point, the absence of a brilliant plan is going to come under intense scrutiny.

RobD

TOPPING said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

What do you mean "hastened our departure"? We triggered A50, we leave two years later. What had the initial timetable been which M. Macron has affected today?

If I was to guess, I’d say he was talking about the initial decision to leave in 2016.

JohnRussell

JohnRussell said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

LordOfReason said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Javid or Hunt both entirely possible, but think Mordaunt would clearly be the best.

Hunt is so beta-male he makes Millifandom look like Bacchanalia.

Javid is Nosferatu voiced by Amy Poehler.

Either of those plays straight into hands of Labour, Hunts NHS record, and, well it’s established fact of all politics, no hair, no chance. If you have any doubt what I am saying, the smoking gun is their conference speeches, Javid declaring war on hope, Hunt channeling his inner Boris and making the biggest gaff of the entire rally.

It has to be Patel. It will be Patel. From out between the tired and fading old big beasts of eurosceptism she will, with their endorsements, spring like a tiger. Imagine May v Ledsome, only it ain’t Leadsom it’s Patel, and she ain’t rolling over.

If you have any respect or admiration for Margaret Thatcher, your vote has to go to Patel. Whatever Maggie had, Patel has in spades. Interviews, speeches, knows her subject, knows her mind, it all adds up to confidence, drive to win and smack of firm leadership. Imagine the day the Conservative Party make Patel PM, you can go to your cocoa and goodnights sleep knowing Britain has its Thatcher back. Just in time too.

Some of you are pretty switched on, surely it can’t just be me who sees this?

Do you mean Priti Patel?!

Her performance on the death penalty question on QT is perhaps the most poorly constructed argument I've ever seen a politician give. For those that haven't seen it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DrsVhzbLzU

No doubt if there were a referendum on the Death Penalty won by those in favour of reverting to it, the argument over whether to use firing squad, the gallows, electric chair or lethal injection would be interpreted by the anti brigade as conclusive proof the public didn't know what it was voting for

Theresa May could say "Death means Death" and commit to leaving all mass murderers to die of old age in prison

Alanbrooke

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

You can see why he calls himself @toryboypierce

I was more interested in the message than the messenger.

If true, it might explain Macron's hard line stance in the belief he can force us to back down. That could end badly for all concerned.

Macron thinks himself The Last Jedi.

He really is that crap.

I think its more than that.

He realises no UK means theres nobody he can call on to stand up to Germany. France is just a a vassal and he has pissed off half of Europe while doing Merkels bidding.

TOPPING

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

What do you mean "hastened our departure"? We triggered A50, we leave two years later. What had the initial timetable been which M. Macron has affected today?

If I was to guess, I’d say he was talking about the initial decision to leave in 2016.

You mean a year before Macron was elected? Boy he is good.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/CER_Grant/status/1047860910591807488

oxfordsimon

Dems are throwing their toys out of the pram over the additional FBI report.

They agreed to have a limited further investigation. Which is what they got.

Now it was the wrong kind of 'limited'

It is clear what game they are playing. They will continue to move the goalposts as long as they possibly can.

Feinstein hasn't even read it in full - but has still decided it isn't enough.

For all the faults of the GOP, the Dems have played Dr Ford for political gain and have made it harder for other victims of abuse to come forward.

RobD

TOPPING said:

RobD said:

TOPPING said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

What do you mean "hastened our departure"? We triggered A50, we leave two years later. What had the initial timetable been which M. Macron has affected today?

If I was to guess, I’d say he was talking about the initial decision to leave in 2016.

You mean a year before Macron was elected? Boy he is good.

“Attitude of the likes of Macron”.

CarlottaVance

TOPPING said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

What do you mean "hastened our departure"? We triggered A50, we leave two years later. What had the initial timetable been which M. Macron has affected today?

I think you're missing "attitudes of the likes of".....

LordOfReason

AllyPally_Rob said:

LordOfReason said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Javid or Hunt both entirely possible, but think Mordaunt would clearly be the best.

Hunt is so beta-male he makes Millifandom look like Bacchanalia.

Javid is Nosferatu voiced by Amy Poehler.

Either of those plays straight into hands of Labour, Hunts NHS record, and, well it’s established fact of all politics, no hair, no chance. If you have any doubt what I am saying, the smoking gun is their conference speeches, Javid declaring war on hope, Hunt channeling his inner Boris and making the biggest gaff of the entire rally.

It has to be Patel. It will be Patel. From out between the tired and fading old big beasts of eurosceptism she will, with their endorsements, spring like a tiger. Imagine May v Ledsome, only it ain’t Leadsom it’s Patel, and she ain’t rolling over.

If you have any respect or admiration for Margaret Thatcher, your vote has to go to Patel. Whatever Maggie had, Patel has in spades. Interviews, speeches, knows her subject, knows her mind, it all adds up to confidence, drive to win and smack of firm leadership. Imagine the day the Conservative Party make Patel PM, you can go to your cocoa and goodnights sleep knowing Britain has its Thatcher back. Just in time too.

Some of you are pretty switched on, surely it can’t just be me who sees this?

Do you mean Priti Patel?!

Her performance on the death penalty question on QT is perhaps the most poorly constructed argument I've ever seen a politician give. For those that haven't seen it...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_DrsVhzbLzU

I knew someone would post that and I’m ready for you. You only think it’s poorly constructed because you are on other side of it, if there’s a referendum on capital punishment you confident of winning it?

The mistake you are making is just using that one piece of QT to make your point. We both know there’s a whole lot more to be said than that. It’s that particular clip that convinces me.

I know why it’s Patel, a Thatcher style leader needed, because I know exactly what is wrong with the Tories at the moment, the reason why they are heading for the U bend and the great drain of opposition: they are listening to voters too much on the doorsteps. Simples.

Alanbrooke

Moscovici ramps it up again

http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/04/esteri/moscovici-lue-rischia-di-implodere-con-salvini-orban-e-le-pen-ml1xJhP4iRU8dOkU2ZOdeK/pagina.html

the EU risks implosion with Salvini Orban and LePen

Must be an election in the wind

TheWhiteRabbit

oxfordsimon said:

Dems are throwing their toys out of the pram over the additional FBI report.

They agreed to have a limited further investigation. Which is what they got.

Now it was the wrong kind of 'limited'

It is clear what game they are playing. They will continue to move the goalposts as long as they possibly can.

Feinstein hasn't even read it in full - but has still decided it isn't enough.

For all the faults of the GOP, the Dems have played Dr Ford for political gain and have made it harder for other victims of abuse to come forward.

The only people who have been played are the Dems, by a cynical Republican administration.

CarlottaVance

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

You can see why he calls himself @toryboypierce

I was more interested in the message than the messenger.

If true, it might explain Macron's hard line stance in the belief he can force us to back down. That could end badly for all concerned.

Macron thinks himself The Last Jedi.

He really is that crap.

I think its more than that.

He realises no UK means theres nobody he can call on to stand up to Germany. France is just a a vassal and he has pissed off half of Europe while doing Merkels bidding.

France may well also doing more of the military heavy lifting for the EU if Britain disengages.

Today's Press Conference in the Hague illustrates how much help European countries get from UK Intelligence - not that Druncker acknowledged that in his 'The EU is on top of this' statement.

Nigelb

oxfordsimon said:

Dems are throwing their toys out of the pram over the additional FBI report.

They agreed to have a limited further investigation. Which is what they got.

Now it was the wrong kind of 'limited'

It is clear what game they are playing. They will continue to move the goalposts as long as they possibly can.

Feinstein hasn't even read it in full - but has still decided it isn't enough.

For all the faults of the GOP, the Dems have played Dr Ford for political gain and have made it harder for other victims of abuse to come forward.

I think your frame is every bit as skewed by partisanship.

It's pretty clear what game was played with the limits on the 'investigation', too, if they couldn't even talk to this guy:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/brett-kavanaugh-college-roommate-jamie-roche.html
In 1983, I was one of Brett Kavanaugh’s freshman roommates at Yale University. About two weeks ago I came forward to lend my support to my friend Deborah Ramirez, who says Brett sexually assaulted her at a party in a dorm suite. I did this because I believe Debbie.

Now the FBI is investigating this incident. I am willing to speak with them about my experiences at Yale with both Debbie and Brett. I would tell them this: Brett Kavanaugh stood up under oath and lied about his drinking and about the meaning of words in his yearbook. He did so baldly, without hesitation or reservation…

Alanbrooke

CarlottaVance said:

Alanbrooke said:

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/toryboypierce/status/1047863393707802625

You can see why he calls himself @toryboypierce

I was more interested in the message than the messenger.

If true, it might explain Macron's hard line stance in the belief he can force us to back down. That could end badly for all concerned.

Macron thinks himself The Last Jedi.

He really is that crap.

I think its more than that.

He realises no UK means theres nobody he can call on to stand up to Germany. France is just a a vassal and he has pissed off half of Europe while doing Merkels bidding.

France may well also doing more of the military heavy lifting for the EU if Britain disengages.

Today's Press Conference in the Hague illustrates how much help European countries get from UK Intelligence - not that Druncker acknowledged that in his 'The EU is on top of this' statement.

Nah France uses the Foreign Legion better get foreigners in the body bags than the Gauloisers

rkrkrk

LordOfReason said:

I knew someone would post that and I’m ready for you. You only think it’s poorly constructed because you are on other side of it, if there’s a referendum on capital punishment you confident of winning it?

The mistake you are making is just using that one piece of QT to make your point. We both know there’s a whole lot more to be said than that. It’s that particular clip that convinces me.

I know why it’s Patel, a Thatcher style leader needed, because I know exactly what is wrong with the Tories at the moment, the reason why they are heading for the U bend and the great drain of opposition: they are listening to voters too much on the doorsteps. Simples.

I agree a single QT clip is not enough to condemn her. Her track record otherwise is hardly stellar though. Sacked for disloyalty and dishonesty, a lobbyist for big tobacco and alcohol and a background in PR.

If you want a Thatcherite, I think you can do better. Liz Truss perhaps.

CarlottaVance

Alanbrooke said:

Moscovici ramps it up again

http://www.lastampa.it/2018/10/04/esteri/moscovici-lue-rischia-di-implodere-con-salvini-orban-e-le-pen-ml1xJhP4iRU8dOkU2ZOdeK/pagina.html

the EU risks implosion with Salvini Orban and LePen

Must be an election in the wind

And the solution is....More Europe!

Whodathunkit?

RobD

Nigelb said:

oxfordsimon said:

Dems are throwing their toys out of the pram over the additional FBI report.

They agreed to have a limited further investigation. Which is what they got.

Now it was the wrong kind of 'limited'

It is clear what game they are playing. They will continue to move the goalposts as long as they possibly can.

Feinstein hasn't even read it in full - but has still decided it isn't enough.

For all the faults of the GOP, the Dems have played Dr Ford for political gain and have made it harder for other victims of abuse to come forward.

I think your frame is every bit as skewed by partisanship.

It's pretty clear what game was played with the limits on the 'investigation', too, if they couldn't even talk to this guy:

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/10/brett-kavanaugh-college-roommate-jamie-roche.html
In 1983, I was one of Brett Kavanaugh’s freshman roommates at Yale University. About two weeks ago I came forward to lend my support to my friend Deborah Ramirez, who says Brett sexually assaulted her at a party in a dorm suite. I did this because I believe Debbie.

Now the FBI is investigating this incident. I am willing to speak with them about my experiences at Yale with both Debbie and Brett. I would tell them this: Brett Kavanaugh stood up under oath and lied about his drinking and about the meaning of words in his yearbook. He did so baldly, without hesitation or reservation…

And you have to wonder about his partisanship, too.