Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Salzburg: Betting across a range of relevant political markets

135

Comments

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    glw said:

    It's exactly that lack of ability to be flexible and willing to change course that pushed a lot of us relucatant Leavers over the edge in the first place.
    Agreed. I might not make the same choice if offered it again, but that was a big part of it.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,034

    It was the way they did it and to be honest I cannot see the public accepting anything other than the EU are to blame if we no deal
    Even if for argument's sake you are right what difference will it make? The consequences will be equally dire. Sometimes this entire Brexit debacle seems more about saving the Tories skin than the national interest.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    nielh said:

    Northern Ireland is going to end up being a massive drain on government resources, particularly in terms of the army and security services. It is a set of problems that were entirely foreseeable and avoidable.
    No it won't there is not the will nor the resources.
  • Throwing your son’s financial well-being under a bus due to a misplaced sympathy with a mendacious and incompetent politician is never a good look.
    My son in law will be fine - but it is upto the government to ensure the massive Airbus factory continues to prosper for the sake of the North Wales economy
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    welshowl said:

    This about freedom, self determination, and democracy, not economics. Remain still have not twigged that.
    It is also about isolationism, jingoism and a narrowly defined set of British values that excludes many Britons.

    Far too much about Brexit is about poorly focussed anger, the political equivalent of a bad day at the office, and coming home to beat the wife.
  • GIN1138 said:


    I thought I saw you fantasizing about us joining the euro in this morning's thread? ;)
    Is more of a prediction if we get a truly bad Brexit experience that leads to years of economic ruin (and the EU end up doing well)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    JohnO said:

    But assuredly that will be the basis of any deal despite today’s events. But will it be credible in the sense that Cameron’s palpably wasn’t? That by definition we can’t know now. More immediately it’s not clear whether the latest fiasco helps or hinders Mrs May in the run-up to the Tory conference.
    Something has to change. There is no sign of that tonight. A talented politician on either side might pull it off. Sadly there are none.
  • In really great news, I've got confirmation my new iPhone will be delivered in the morning.

    #SodBrexitTalk
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    edited September 2018

    William is a very good proxy for exactly how the EU institutions and their ideologues think, however.

    It seems they are either staffed or advised (or both) by people exactly like him.
    Ideology and commitment to the cause of an EU Superstate comes before all else
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    Nah, is the birthright of every Englishman to be rude about the French.

    Heck my ancestors came from the Indian subcontinent and it was ingrained into me.

    Actually my derision towards the French stems from the time I visited Normandy as part of the 50th anniversary of D-Day.

    Not realising I could speak French, I could hear just how bitter the French were that they were liberated by Les Rosbifs and the Anglos.
    If it wasn't for Robert Clive you could have been as French as Pondicherry :)
  • Just putting this thought out there, since the guy's been maligned aplenty. Not saying I actually agree with the proposition. But...

    By the end of his tenure, did David "Thicko" Davis have a better grasp of the Brexit negotiations, particularly the parameters that were actually workable?

    Again, not saying he was super-smart. Not saying he would have been able to deliver anything (though clearly that would have ultimately depended on decisions taken by his superiors anyway). Merely postulating, did Davis actually have more of a clue than May? Or to put it another way round, is May more clueless in misjudgment than Davis?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited September 2018

    In really great news, I've got confirmation my new iPhone will be delivered in the morning.

    #SodBrexitTalk

    I presume you have gone for the iPhone Xtra-Specially-Max-crappola.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,187
    OchEye said:

    We are not a great country. We are regarded, worldwide, as a criminal country with London as the centre of the enterprise. Our bankers, financiers, hedge funds, even estate agents and builders are recognised as being worse than any mafia. Why do you think the 29th of March, 2019, is so significant? On the 30th, if we were still members of the EU, we would have to divulge ownership of bank accounts and financial transactions through the UK - how embarrassing would that be....
    Both of these premises are wrong.

    I do business all around the world; indeed London is the centre of the world art and antique trade. We’re a beacon of liberal democracy, of capitalism and good government.

    The beneficial ownership bank accounts and companies is already British law.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Foxy said:

    It is also about isolationism, jingoism and a narrowly defined set of British values that excludes many Britons.

    Far too much about Brexit is about poorly focussed anger, the political equivalent of a bad day at the office, and coming home to beat the wife.
    I'm not convinced there was much jingoism involved.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    My son in law will be fine - but it is upto the government to ensure the massive Airbus factory continues to prosper for the sake of the North Wales economy
    Simple - stop the Brexit madness now. The Airbus workers will be out of jobs but then if they voted leave...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    In other news what a choice bunch of Union Jack boxer short-wearing, land of hope and glory ringtone, keyboard warrior, oooh Frank Spencer, Leaver arseholes there are on PB this evening.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423

    The Sun has an 'interesting' take on the day's events:

    Euro mobsters ambush May

    WE can’t wait to shake ourselves free of the two-bit mobsters who run the European Union.

    EU leaders promised a fair hearing on our future relationship at yesterday’s crunch Salzburg summit. Instead, Mrs May was ambushed with a cack-handed attempt to sign us up to Brussels’ unacceptable terms there and then. The PM refused to budge on the UK’s red lines, and she’s absolutely right to do so. This lot are more Bugsy Malone than Al Capone. Yesterday the leaders of the undemocratic European Union showed their true colours. This isn’t some grand project, designed to bring the peoples of Europe together in one happy union. It’s a protection racket.


    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7309816/the-sun-says-eu-brexit-mobsters/

    As predictable as the tone is, and recognising it is quite possible for one's red lines to be unacceptable to the other side, it is curious how to some the UK is being unreasonable in sticking to its red lines, and the EU reasonable, or vice versa. If neither stuck to them they would not be red lines. It probably isn't insightful to think that the whole negotiation is really about finding out which red lines are actually just pink lines, and unfortunately I think ours are more likely to be so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    Irish Times 'A United Ireland would see living standards in the Republic fall 15%' as the Republic would have to accommodate the €11 billion subvention Northern Ireland receives annually from the UK, which equates to 25 per cent of its national income.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/united-ireland-would-see-living-standards-in-republic-fall-by-15-1.3629748
  • I presume you have gone for the iPhone Xtra-Specially-Max-crappola.
    Yup, the XS Max 512GB.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349

    Just putting this thought out there, since the guy's been maligned aplenty. Not saying I actually agree with the proposition. But...

    By the end of his tenure, did David "Thicko" Davis have a better grasp of the Brexit negotiations, particularly the parameters that were actually workable?

    Again, not saying he was super-smart. Not saying he would have been able to deliver anything (though clearly that would have ultimately depended on decisions taken by his superiors anyway). Merely postulating, did Davis actually have more of a clue than May? Or to put it another way round, is May more clueless in misjudgment than Davis?

    Yes and yes.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    OllyT said:

    Even if for argument's sake you are right what difference will it make? The consequences will be equally dire. Sometimes this entire Brexit debacle seems more about saving the Tories skin than the national interest.
    Haven't you worked out the politics of the last 7 years? It's all been about saving the Tories and the national interest could go hang.
  • Please tell Mrs G that we cannot 'have nothing to do with them' - geography dictates that we are part of Europe. Isolating ourselves will have dire economic consequences as you yourself have pointed out on numerous occasions.
    I have been married to my dear lady for 54 years and have learnt it is not a good strategy to 'tell' her anything but we will have to have trading relations with Europe but exactly how is open for debate
  • GIN1138 said:

    No you just need to brick it up surely? :D
    Slight problem with that is that the brickies will have gone home to Poland by then.
  • OchEye said:

    The EU works on a series of rules and laws which the UK is trying to circumvent. 28, soon to be 27, do not give a monkeys about a soon to be ex-member, they all have enough problems of their own to deal with, that is why they instruct the EU Commission to deal with it under their instructions.
    I think that the key divide here is not about this, but about NI. I have no issue with the EU saying that we cannot be in any way inside their SM. If they want to introduce friction on trade, that is their right, even though it is not necessary and self defeating.

    But the EU do not need the NI backstop. It is not critical to their interests - everyone really knows that a Maxfac soft border would work well enough. It is a consequence of Brexit for both sides, because it was the actions of both sides led to Brexit. The point of the backstop is not to protect the EU single market, it is to humiliate the UK and also allow the EU the ability to wind back any commitments in the trade declaration later and force the UK to accept EU regulations (especially the CU) in the future.

    It is the EU that is trying to have its cake and eat it. If we cannot be in the SM in any form, then we don’t follow EU regulations in any form. If they want us to have CETA, then we are not subject to their control.

    The NI backstop is the definition of bad faith and it was for that reason that I have always opposed it. As May found today, that bad faith is at the core of the EUs posiiton.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Leaver = batshit mental 100%. Always has done.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    welshowl said:

    This about freedom, self determination, and democracy, not economics. Remain still have not twigged that.
    No individual punter is going to be any freer, more self-determined or experience more democracy than when we were in Europe. It's a mirage. Westminster, where virtually all significant decisions are made, will continue to do so with little regard to the population at large.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    HYUFD said:

    Irish Times 'A United Ireland would see living standards in the Republic fall 15%' as the Republic would have to accommodate the €11 billion subvention Northern Ireland receives annually from the UK, which equates to 25 per cent of its national income.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/united-ireland-would-see-living-standards-in-republic-fall-by-15-1.3629748

    Reunification would have its costs, as it did in Germany, but in time the Northern Ireland economy would catch up with the booming ROI one.
  • Yup, the XS Max 512GB.
    Let us know what you think....I'm being very good for Santa....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    edited September 2018
    Chris_A said:

    Haven't you worked out the politics of the last 7 years? It's all been about saving the Tories and the national interest could go hang.
    I doubt it. Parties have a better chance of staying in power if they are also looking out for the national interest. They just get confused at times as whether being in power is itself in the national interest, no matter what, since their whole reason for existing is to presume they always are best. There's nothing particularly Tory or Labour about that.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831

    Slight problem with that is that the brickies will have gone home to Poland by then.
    :D
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,168
    welshowl said:

    This about freedom, self determination, and democracy, not economics. Remain still have not twigged that.

    Economics is freedom, self determination, and democracy. Poverty is powerlessness.
  • In another interview today Mr Corbyn's aide cut off the reporter asking him about a plot to censure the Labour MP Rosie Duffield for criticising him.

    She revealed she had contemplated quitting Parliament after facing a motion blasting her for attending a demonstration in Westminster against anti-Semitism in March.

    The motion was eventually withdrawn but she said “you have to ask yourself if positives outweigh negatives, and whether it is worth the effect it is having on my family”.

    Asked about it by BBC South East’s Helen Catt the leader’s head of strategic communications said: “Sorry, can we stop this.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7308628/jeremy-corbyn-says-labour-will-vote-down-theresa-mays-chequers-deal-so-they-can-push-for-another-election/

    You can't ask the great leader tough questions...
  • I have been married to my dear lady for 54 years and have learnt it is not a good strategy to 'tell' her anything but we will have to have trading relations with Europe but exactly how is open for debate
    Wise words.

    What's the secret to a happy marriage?

    "Yes, dear."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    edited September 2018

    In another interview today Mr Corbyn's aide cut off the reporter asking him about a plot to censure the Labour MP Rosie Duffield for criticising him.

    She revealed she had contemplated quitting Parliament after facing a motion blasting her for attending a demonstration in Westminster against anti-Semitism in March.

    The motion was eventually withdrawn but she said “you have to ask yourself if positives outweigh negatives, and whether it is worth the effect it is having on my family”.

    Asked about it by BBC South East’s Helen Catt the leader’s head of strategic communications said: “Sorry, can we stop this.”

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7308628/jeremy-corbyn-says-labour-will-vote-down-theresa-mays-chequers-deal-so-they-can-push-for-another-election/

    You can't ask the great leader tough questions...

    Don't think many people are going to be focusing on Corbyn's trouble this weekend despite the best efforts of all his external an internal opponents in the run up to conference.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    No individual punter is going to be any freer, more self-determined or experience more democracy than when we were in Europe. It's a mirage. Westminster, where virtually all significant decisions are made, will continue to do so with little regard to the population at large.
    Rubbish.

    How do I fire Selmayr?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    edited September 2018

    I have been married to my dear lady for 54 years and have learnt it is not a good strategy to 'tell' her anything but we will have to have trading relations with Europe but exactly how is open for debate
    Fair point. Maybe just mention in passing that 'having nothing to do with them' will be a trifle difficult.

    :smile:
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,080
    edited September 2018

    The Leavers are particularly batshit mental tonight. Next step will be dynamiting the Channel Tunnel.

    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
  • Yup, the XS Max 512GB.
    Well it will certainly put a large bump in your trousers...
  • Let us know what you think....I'm being very good for Santa....
    I shall.

    Is a big step for me, I avoided the Plus phones in the past.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Hardly surprising, if there was a UK En Marche you would be at the front of the queue with Osborne and Clegg to sign up
    Brexit choice of British people. Check ☒
    Pushed by people saying it would be easy. Check ☒
    Those people being liars. Check ☒

    Not seeing where the problem is.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,187
    edited September 2018
    welshowl said:

    Rubbish.

    How do I fire Selmayr?
    Or the fools trying to make the import of antiques more difficult....
  • murali_s said:


    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,187

    I shall.

    Is a big step for me, I avoided the Plus phones in the past.
    Can very much recommend. Can’t beleive I used to own a small one...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    edited September 2018
    Chris_A said:

    Leaver = batshit mental 100%. Always has done.
    murali_s said:


    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    TOPPING said:

    In other news what a choice bunch of Union Jack boxer short-wearing, land of hope and glory ringtone, keyboard warrior, oooh Frank Spencer, Leaver arseholes there are on PB this evening.

    I'm certainly glad others lead by example in at least attempting reasoned, polite discourse. Ah, there's my high horse.

    Have a lovely evening everybody. I'm off to see King of Thieves tomorrow, it looks dreadful, and why it took this long for Michael Caine to be in a movie about that event I don't know, it was a shoo-in the second the details were known.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,831
    murali_s said:


    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    Now tell us how you really feel about your fellow PB'ers. :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited September 2018
    Mortimer said:

    Can very much recommend. Can’t beleive I used to own a small one...
    As we still talking about iPhones or has the conversation moved on now we are well past the watershed?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Yup, the XS Max 512GB.

    You having pineapple on that?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,187

    As we still talking about iPhones or has the conversation moved on now we are well past the watershed?
    ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    Wise words.

    What's the secret to a happy marriage?

    "Yes, dear."
    "When you are wrong, admit it, when you're right, shut up!"

    Though not advice that works on PB. :)
  • Can I just say, whatever AI YouTube uses for video selection, I think the rise of the robots is still some way off.

    I watch one video of Ross Noble telling a funny story about sausage rolls and now have to scroll past bloody 100s of Ross Noble videos.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    One more thing - I have business to get on with - we are always being told that the EU officialdom are a nightmare/ideologues/hostile but the EU heads of government would be on our side. Perhaps we might now appreciate that nice Mr Barnier having a quiet chat with a few of the hotheads.
  • Well after a day when the EU showed their true colours it is time to settle down once more

    I hope everyone has a restful night and maybe we must all try to be kinder to each other as the days come and go

    Good night folks
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    Foxy said:

    "When you are wrong, admit it, when you're right, shut up!"

    Though not advice that works on PB. :)
    I would have to posting altogether :wink:
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,168

    Are you impressed by how the EU has handled this?
    Impressed? Wrong word. But I do think they are winning. And although I have considerable respect for you and @Big_G_NorthWales 's stances as the more reasonable Leavers, there is a streak of emotionality that prevents you from achieving your goal. "Failing and blaming" is what people do when they lose. Start winning.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    murali_s said:


    Haha indeed. The (right-wing pea-brained) Leaver trash that live on this blog are in utter denial. They are going into melt-down.
    I think your comments say far more about you than any leaver.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Well after a day when the EU showed their true colours it is time to settle down once more

    I hope everyone has a restful night and maybe we must all try to be kinder to each other as the days come and go

    Good night folks

    Yes good night Big_G. Plenty of Brexit twists and turns to come yet, I warrant.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Foxy said:

    Yes, the failure to make preparations for No Deal, or even to see it as a possibility was the Tories central error.

    May certainly has a tin ear and is devoid of people skills, but even the suave and emmoliative Cameron could not convince the EU to break up the Single Market.

    May's folly was not in her lack of negotiating skill* but in her rigidity that prevented her from exploring other options.

    *demonstrated not only in Salzburg, but also in Chequers itself, where she presented her cabinet with a fait accompli, with the alternative of walking home. No way to treat your own colleagues.
    I personally much prefer May to Cameron in most respects, but Cameron would've been better in these negotiations I think. He would've been better at buttering the other leaders up, and stroking their considerable egos, which like it or not is one the big ingredients of a successful negotiation.

    One of the reports today mentioned that one of the things that irritated the other leaders was that, at last night's dinner, May basically just read out her op-ed from "Die Welt" almost word-for-word. That reminded me of a piece from Rafael Behr from a long time ago, when he correctly predicted her lack of people skills would really damage her:

    With European leaders she has been formal to the point of rudeness, sticking to prepared speaking notes and gnomic banalities. Even in bilateral chats, where friendly counterparts have offered support in exchange for insight into May’s thinking, the prime minister has used her “Brexit means Brexit” line, unaware of how insulting it is to fob off the head of an EU power with a vacuous media soundbite.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/14/theresa-may-brexit-talks-prime-minister-diplomacy-eu
  • In really great news, I've got confirmation my new iPhone will be delivered in the morning.

    #SodBrexitTalk

    In further #SodBrexitTalk

    How long you been using last series Peaks as Avatar? Damn fine series.

    My theory for the end, Coop mistook what home was and took her back to the daemon, not The Fireman and Senorita Dido
  • Foxy said:

    "When you are wrong, admit it, when you're right, shut up!"

    Though not advice that works on PB. :)
    Bad advice. A husband is always wrong.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349

    Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    Yes right now you would find it awfully dificult to make a case that the hard Brexiteers are the deluded ones. They do seem to have been proven right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    edited September 2018
    Foxy said:

    Reunification would have its costs, as it did in Germany, but in time the Northern Ireland economy would catch up with the booming ROI one.
    The East German economy is still well behind the West German economy and has more in common with Poland's than that of the rest of Germany.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited September 2018
    viewcode said:

    Economics is freedom, self determination, and democracy. Poverty is powerlessness.
    Bold but interesting claim. You're interested, iirc, in tech and Big Data. The government of China is combining some of the cutting edge in technological totalitarianism (moving on from the Great Firewall to facial recognition and loyalty-tracking) with increased incomes that substantially widen its inhabitants' consumption-possibility frontiers. There are some great articles about that, well worth reading.

    From a different angle, Savoy was for centuries a notable European power - in fact it was only annexed to France as late as 1860. To what extent is Savoy "free" or "self-determined" today, when it no longer even exists as a polity? Do we get a different answer if I replace "Savoy" with "the Savoyards"? In terms of "democratic", I think it's arguable that had Savoy retained its independence, then Savoyards would have more individual voting power. More importantly, they would live in a country whose governance more closely matched their preferences (since the preferences of Savoyards will tend to be correlated, and not always in lockstep with other regions of what is now France). There's a similar argument to be made re Bavaria in 1870 - it's not even obvious that Bavarians themselves would be poorer today if their state had remained independent or, as some had suggested, joined with Switzerland, within which Bavarians would have had more power and also in several respects had greater affinity than Germany.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    HYUFD said:

    The East German economy is still well behind the West German economy and has more in common with Poland's than that of the rest of Germany.
    It's also full of people who are voting "wrong". A familiar problem in the happy family that is the EU.
  • In really great news, I've got confirmation my new iPhone will be delivered in the morning.

    #SodBrexitTalk

    In order to do the Wales main line rail network, just need Whitland (near Carmarthen) to Pembroke, and in order to do England*, just need Middlesbrough to Whitby.

    (* plus some odd short curves in northern England)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Can I just say, whatever AI YouTube uses for video selection, I think the rise of the robots is still some way off.

    I watch one video of Ross Noble telling a funny story about sausage rolls and now have to scroll past bloody 100s of Ross Noble videos.


    Very interesting programme on AI by Jim Al-Khalili earlier this month "The Joy of AI" seemed to come to the same conclusion. AI could well join Nuclear Fusion Power Generation in being forever 20-30 years away.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bhwhw1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    Alistair said:

    Brexit choice of British people. Check ☒
    Pushed by people saying it would be easy. Check ☒
    Those people being liars. Check ☒

    Not seeing where the problem is.
    The EU of course refused to offer any compromise to the UK before the referendum to reflect sovereignty and immigration concerns and still are not budging now
  • Just thought that there is a weird sort of parallel between how Chequers is going down in flames ... and how the Dementia Tax proposal did.

    May just doesn't do grandiose ideas effectively.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    glw said:

    It's also full of people who are voting "wrong". A familiar problem in the happy family that is the EU.
    And will continue to be so
  • GIN1138 said:

    No you just need to brick it up surely? :D
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MNZALcCzSg
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Bold but interesting claim. You're interested, iirc, in tech and Big Data. The government of China is combining some of the cutting edge in technological totalitarianism (moving on from the Great Firewall to facial recognition and loyalty-tracking) with increased incomes that substantially widen its inhabitants' consumption-possibility frontiers. There are some great articles about that, well worth reading.

    From a different angle, Savoy was for centuries a notable European power - in fact it was only annexed to France as late as 1860. To what extent is Savoy "free" or "self-determined" today, when it no longer even exists as a polity? Do we get a different answer if I replace "Savoy" with "the Savoyards"? In terms of "democratic", I think it's arguable that had Savoy retained its independence, then Savoyards would have more individual voting power. More importantly, they would live in a country whose governance more closely matched their preferences (since the preferences of Savoyards will tend to be correlated, and not always in lockstep with other regions of what is now France). There's a similar argument to be made re Bavaria in 1870 - it's not even obvious that Bavarians themselves would be poorer today if their state had remained independent or, as some had suggested, joined with Switzerland, within which Bavarians would have had more power and also in several respects had greater affinity than Germany.
    But where do you stop? Why not have an independent London?
  • Vice have just put out a documentary on London’s Knife Crime Emergency

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_pNlDhpbew
  • Leaver trash - that’s me! What are we in denial about exactly? I would have thought our view of reality had just been confirmed?
    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    glw said:

    It's also full of people who are voting "wrong". A familiar problem in the happy family that is the EU.
    Right wing populists and crypto-fascists are not just to be found in Europe. Look at Russia and America for example, or the Phillipines for that matter.
  • HYUFD said:
    I think somebody has been on the NyeTimber.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    edited September 2018

    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    Why is a 2nd referendum unaccaptable? And how exactly do you expect any government to beable to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales in the event of a no deal Brexit? Those jobs will just go, tragically.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    How? Nationalisation? Didn’t have you down as a Corbynite.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,884
    edited September 2018
    I think you may be right but a lot of support for Boris on MailOnline tonight too as he awaits his Churchill moment after May's Munich Chequers Deal similarly failed to appease the Tiger and leaves her facing a Chamberlain scenario
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,668
    edited September 2018

    I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    Big G you have finally realised that Brexit is not only some rich man's plaything but is also real life for people who can't afford for it to go wrong.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    Just thought that there is a weird sort of parallel between how Chequers is going down in flames ... and how the Dementia Tax proposal did.

    May just doesn't do grandiose ideas effectively.

    She couldn't sell ice creams in the sahara!
  • Jonathan said:

    How? Nationalisation? Didn’t have you down as a Corbynite.
    Reduced taxation and investment - nationalisation never
  • TOPPING said:

    In other news what a choice bunch of Union Jack boxer short-wearing, land of hope and glory ringtone, keyboard warrior, oooh Frank Spencer, Leaver arseholes there are on PB this evening.

    Union Jack boxer shorts? Really!

    Union Jack thongs, thank you very much!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    HYUFD said:
    Hairy eyebrows? If only Denis Healey was still with us.
  • I have today apologised to you for some of our disagreements as today has justified your stance. I now support a deal by TM or a hard Brexit as a second referendum is not acceptable

    In the event of a hard Brexit I expect HMG to protect Airbus jobs in North Wales as they are vital to our economy
    If today has told us anything, it's that HMG couldn't protect a single job on a whelk-stall.
  • glw said:

    It's also full of people who are voting "wrong". A familiar problem in the happy family that is the EU.
    And because they never had decades practising integration of foreign folk, with different skin colour, all East Germany are racist fascists. Or fascist racists. Fascists racists racing fascists.

    Nazi’s
  • Hairy eyebrows? If only Denis Healey was still with us.
    John McCririck?
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,158
    A good example of the state of politics today - in Ottery St Marys by election the Independent wins with a huge majority despite the last Independent being disqualified for non attendance.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Reduced taxation and investment - nationalisation never
    So increased deficit? Or further cuts to social, health, defence, education and other public services (oh, and more county councils going bust)?
  • Enough about this Europe stuff..... Late night iht....

    Are labour down to abolish the additional residence nil rate band do we know?

    And did you see the lib dems have voted to set a maximum pension tax free cash ceiling of just 40k?

    Compared to 25pct of £1.03m.

    That presumably wouldn't apply to existing pension pots. .. But going forward on new monies... Retrospective tax otherwise and those using tfc as mortgage repayment vehicle will be stuffed..

  • Foxy said:

    In a No Deal Brexit, how do you expect those Airbus jobs to be preserved? particularly if it is a hostile Brexit, where we refuse to pay our bills?
    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    Reduced taxation and investment - nationalisation never
    Paid for by?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Enough about this Europe stuff..... Late night iht....

    Are labour down to abolish the additional residence nil rate band do we know?

    And did you see the lib dems have voted to set a maximum pension tax free cash ceiling of just 40k?

    Compared to 25pct of £1.03m.

    That presumably wouldn't apply to existing pension pots. .. But going forward on new monies... Retrospective tax otherwise and those using tfc as mortgage repayment vehicle will be stuffed..

    Worry not, it's the LDs so not ever going to happen.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    Jonathan said:

    Paid for by?
    A shake of the money tree :wink:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    How do you expect Airbus to sell planes without wings?
    I suspect in the short term they will be produced in the UK, but new investment will be in mainland Europe. Airbus UK will go the way of the Australian Car Industry.

  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,168

    Bold but interesting claim. You're interested, iirc, in tech and Big Data. The government of China is combining some of the cutting edge in technological totalitarianism (moving on from the Great Firewall to facial recognition and loyalty-tracking) with increased incomes that substantially widen its inhabitants' consumption-possibility frontiers. There are some great articles about that, well worth reading.

    From a different angle, Savoy was for centuries a notable European power - in fact it was only annexed to France as late as 1860. To what extent is Savoy "free" or "self-determined" today, when it no longer even exists as a polity? Do we get a different answer if I replace "Savoy" with "the Savoyards"? In terms of "democratic", I think it's arguable that had Savoy retained its independence, then Savoyards would have more individual voting power. More importantly, they would live in a country whose governance more closely matched their preferences (since the preferences of Savoyards will tend to be correlated, and not always in lockstep with other regions of what is now France). There's a similar argument to be made re Bavaria in 1870 - it's not even obvious that Bavarians themselves would be poorer today if their state had remained independent or, as some had suggested, joined with Switzerland, within which Bavarians would have had more power and also in several respects had greater affinity than Germany.
    Fair point, and you may be right about Savoy and Bavaria: I am familiar with the demos concept. So my point might have been better phrased around "necessary but not sufficient".

    But consider the following: the washing machine, contraception, vaccination, medical statistics, capitalism, mass transportation and (my favorite) the refrigerated lorry and ship. These things are scientific/technological/economic in nature and have made a massive difference to people's lives.. I know they can't be separated from politics - no rule of law=no economy, for example - but economics (broadly defined) underpins freedom.
  • Foxy said:

    I suspect in the short term they will be produced in the UK, but new investment will be in mainland Europe. Airbus UK will go the way of the Australian Car Industry.

    Given Airbus is a political beast of a company that is effectively the flag carrier of the EU I expect that will happen regardless of what type of Brexit we agree.

    In which case agreeing a Brexit with Airbus in mind seems redundant.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    Foxy said:

    I suspect in the short term they will be produced in the UK, but new investment will be in mainland Europe. Airbus UK will go the way of the Australian Car Industry.

    That's been on the cards ever since BAE Systems sold their stake.
This discussion has been closed.