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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay heads back from Salzburg looking more isolated than ever
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay heads back from Salzburg looking more isolated than ever
Rarely has a prime minister looked more isolated both home and abroad. Great pic from the inimitable @StefanRousseau pic.twitter.com/HTJESvrJ21
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Unlike the Conservatives at the next GE
Brace yourselves and strap in.
@notme said:
“May can (but probably wont) come out of this as: "we tried, we wanted to maintain close relationships, but it is an unacceptable for the European Union to try and annexe part of the United Kingdom. An agreement on a deep and workable trade relationship seems to be unacceptable to the European Union. We will be leaving the EU on March 31st next year. If we fail to reach agreement on a withdrawal deal, I cannot pretend it wont be difficult. The EU would have inflicted maximum damage on the British economy and done so to punish us for leaving. We will never forget."
Resounding applause at party conference...”
I have no idea whether a deal is in practice doable. But I would not support a speech like that which strikes all the wrong notes. IMO.
I would have thought that, if one were to walk away, it should simply be a factual statement along the lines of that it has proved not possible, despite all the claims of those who wanted Brexit, to come up with a deal which maintains the integrity of the UK, the SM and respects the GFA. Accordingly, since a democratic mandate is so important and not wanting to rely on a mandate two and a half years old given in different circumstances and in the absence of information now available, there needs to be a referendum on a No Deal Brexit / Remain as now basis. If necessary, I will seek an extension of Art 50 to allow this to happen. And once that result is in then it will be for the government to enact the result. In the meanwhile preparations to be stepped up for a no deal Brexit.
If the HoC won’t pass a new referendum bill then I will resign and wish my successor good luck because he/she will need it.
I certainly would not talk about punishments or revenge or any of that. We need to live with each other in the future not up the rhetoric.
If she were going to do this best done soon.
Of course, this all may be unnecessary if this is just the usual stuff which goes on. But some sort of Plan B is needed.
Anyway back to work. I will look in later to see if I need to start bulk buying lentils.
Brace yourselves and strap in.
Dementia? Not joking.
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1042787465017192450
https://twitter.com/HenryNewman/status/1042778233639514112
I think this is just part of the slow leakage from Labour to the LibDems that polls have recorded over the summer, probably due to Brexit, like we saw in the early months of 2017 when 'Article 50' hype was at its peak. I would still be pretty optimistic of winning the bulk of those people back though, based on the canvassing experience last year - people who said they were considering switching from Labour over to the LibDems or Greens were pretty persuadable even in the dark early days of the 2017 campaign, as compared to people who said they were leaning towards switching from Labour to the Tories, who were INCREDIBLY firm in saying they wouldn't even consider Corbyn's Labour at the start of the campaign.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1042803217451704321
Anyway back to work. I will look in later to see if I need to start bulk buying lentils.
Start now before the panic buying....
We simply are running out of time to get stuff sorted and ratified.
Remember solving Northern Ireland was meant to be easy.
The other positive will be all those Eurosceptics who have said No Deal/WTO will be good for the country.
It will be their 'we abolish boom and bust' moment.
We dont need an extension of membership, but a fall back into customs union/single market for a fixed time call it a transition or whatever. Not doing so will rip all the economies of Europe, ours more so, but all of them will suffer.
If everything isn't agreed then we get No Deal.
They are not justiciable, in any event.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1042804293395513344
So we may as well have another vote.
No deal Brexit may still win. But to go down that option without a vote will lead to even more division. There will be enough leavers saying that’s not the sort of Brexit they voted for.
Or Keystone Cops.
“Those who explain that we can easily live without Europe, that everything is going to be alright, and that it’s going to bring a lot of money home are liars.”
Now that's a plan.
https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1042807018376052736
"Chequers goes pop"
Things escalated way out of hand.
The thing is, why was it clear to someone like me, and countless other firms in the banking, financial services, and insurance sectors way back in early 2016 that the EU would protect the four freedoms?
Why did the government and so many others delude themselves that they wouldn't.
After Chequers went pop and we saw DExEU’s midnight runners, David Davis and Steve Baker resigning around midnight, and then Boris Johnson resigning a few hours later it seemed inevitable Mrs May would be ousted this year. But she’s still in place and from that my reading of the situation is that there’s no majority for in the Parliamentary Conservative Party for ousting Mrs May.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/08/12/betting-on-will-there-be-a-tory-leadership-contest-in-2018/
I do rather wonder the extent to which we're up shit creek is due to a certain David Davis. If history writes well of him I'd be very surprised.
The choice has only ever really been a Norway model or a Canada model. Pick one and try and improve it and maybe customise it a bit. But Chequers wanted the Norway access with the Canada obligations....
But yes, the decent thing would have been to credit you.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1042809620270592000
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/722391453599723520
Still, as regards the purely party-political aspect of this, I'm not sure that this is a blow for her in terms of the Tory conference. If you imagine a scenario where the EU had made enthusiastic noises about how close we are to an agreement based on Chequers, that would inevitably have provoked the anti-Chequers brigade into increased vociferousness. As it is, pretty much everyone, including May herself, can say with regret that, despite her huge effort to compromise, the EU aren't playing ball and that as a result we may have to go for a looser arrangement. That actually suits all sides in the short term, and still leaves room for movement in the next stage, and for her to say that she's still confident of a deal.
Given your nom-de-guerre please don't venture into any discussions of logic though.
I forecast a Withdrawal Agreement, with customs union and SM alignment, in a Blind Brexit to give more time to prepare for No Deal Brexit on 31 Dec 2020.
.....Theresa May had been hoping for some warm words from the EU which would have served as a get-out-of jail free card at the Tory get-together. Anything that would have let her hold her Chequers plan up and say ‘this has not been killed off... yet’ would have been a help. Instead they sent her away with a target stuck to her forehead.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/98383/analysis-theresa-may-asked-eu
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/13/its-time-for-labour-to-push-back-against-tory-plastic-patriotism/
Starting to think Gove is too long at 11 on BF.
To get the Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period we will have to stay in the single market and customs union in all but name until at least December 2020 anyway
Tusk gives UK four weeks to save exit talks and rejects Chequers proposals
https://www.ft.com/content/95466282-bcde-11e8-8274-55b72926558f