politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betfair punters make it about an evens chance that TMay will b
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A May Vs Corbyn rematch is still the most likely combination for the next election.DavidL said:Having largely agreed with Osborne on election night that May was a dead woman walking and having got stung as a result I am inclined to go long on May at the moment. It’s not that she is any good ( she isn’t) but that there is no consensus on who would be better.
I think that she will get a deal not a million miles from Chequers but with quite a lot of important stuff left until later. Brexiteers won’t like it but will recognise that if they don’t take it there is a real risk we won’t leave at all. Remainers won’t like it but will recognise that a no deal exit is possible, even probable if they don’t. Just like with the leadership May is the worst possible solution apart from all the others.
Once she has that the difficult stuff then needs to be negotiated. Are we really going to change Captain during that? I increasingly think not.0 -
Yes I also find #3 on Barnesian's outline the one I'm not sure about; I think that if we get there, there's a Commons vote on the Boles plan to join the EEA temporarily, and I'm not sure whether there would be a no confidence vote on that measure, if only proposed once Cheequers had been voted down. I would expect her to walk a confidence vote in that scenario, and I'd be less sure if she was going to 2nd referendum.HYUFD said:
Most likely we will stay in the single market and customs union in all but name to get the withdrawal agreement and transition period and that should be enough to get through the House with Chequers used as the starting point for FTA negotiations in the transition periodBarnesian said:Excluding ill-health, I think the only way that Mrs May will cease to be PM next year is if she loses a leadership confidence motion from Tory MPs. In that unlikely event the Tory Government will also lose a vote of confidence in the House because no Tory successor will be acceptable to a majority of the House.
My scenario is as follows:
1. The modified Chequers deal is voted down by all opposition parties plus ERG.
2. This leaves "No deal".
3. Mrs May knows that is unacceptable but Chequers is dead. She announces "As Parliament has been unable to agree on a way forward, it is with great reluctance that my government will now ask the EU to extend A50 to allow the question to be put to the people in a referendum on the withdrawal terms"
4. There is immediately a vote of no confidence in Mrs May by Tory MPs.
5. If she wins the vote, - and she might because the alternative is a collapse of the Tory Government and a chaotic exit, - then a referendum will be called and she will continue as PM to implement the result.
6. If she loses the vote, and it is clear to the House that no possible Tory successor is going to survive a confidence vote of the House, then a temporary three month "Government of National Unity" under say Dominic Greave will be formed that has the support of a majority. The Queen allows it to form a Government. It extends A50 and calls a referendum after which there is a general election.
I do think Stephen Lloyd's pledge not to vote against should be making waves though - if even the Lib Dems aren't voting against in full there could be a lot of abstentions from Labour?0 -
And Jezza with a nice majority at the end of it...Danny565 said:
A May Vs Corbyn rematch is still the most likely combination for the next election.DavidL said:Having largely agreed with Osborne on election night that May was a dead woman walking and having got stung as a result I am inclined to go long on May at the moment. It’s not that she is any good ( she isn’t) but that there is no consensus on who would be better.
I think that she will get a deal not a million miles from Chequers but with quite a lot of important stuff left until later. Brexiteers won’t like it but will recognise that if they don’t take it there is a real risk we won’t leave at all. Remainers won’t like it but will recognise that a no deal exit is possible, even probable if they don’t. Just like with the leadership May is the worst possible solution apart from all the others.
Once she has that the difficult stuff then needs to be negotiated. Are we really going to change Captain during that? I increasingly think not.
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I found the way that stress testing of our banking system was presented last week bordering on the perverse. I really can’t believe that those very well paid chaps and chapesses at the BBC could be that stupid. It was wilful misrepresentation.GIN1138 said:Is it me or is BBC news becoming totally unhinged over the Brexit this week?
It's actually unwatchable at the moment...0 -
Yes, and indeed some actively voting in favour to avoid chaos (in addition to the small number of Labour Leaver MPs)tpfkar said:I do think Stephen Lloyd's pledge not to vote against should be making waves though - if even the Lib Dems aren't voting against in full there could be a lot of abstentions from Labour?
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German carmakers BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen are to face an EU inquiry for allegedly conspiring to restrict diesel emissions treatment systems.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-455585880 -
It’s incredible isn’t it? Arguably the worst 2 candidates in my adult lifetime and they both get another go!Danny565 said:
A May Vs Corbyn rematch is still the most likely combination for the next election.DavidL said:Having largely agreed with Osborne on election night that May was a dead woman walking and having got stung as a result I am inclined to go long on May at the moment. It’s not that she is any good ( she isn’t) but that there is no consensus on who would be better.
I think that she will get a deal not a million miles from Chequers but with quite a lot of important stuff left until later. Brexiteers won’t like it but will recognise that if they don’t take it there is a real risk we won’t leave at all. Remainers won’t like it but will recognise that a no deal exit is possible, even probable if they don’t. Just like with the leadership May is the worst possible solution apart from all the others.
Once she has that the difficult stuff then needs to be negotiated. Are we really going to change Captain during that? I increasingly think not.0 -
They felt Australian political discourse needed jolting out of its boring, rational rut ?TOPPING said:
Go on. Put us out of our misery.archer101au said:
Yes of course it does. That is why they let me in.CarlottaVance said:
Australia doesn't operate an immigration system based on skills?Dura_Ace said:
Every other country apart from the EU27, Australia, New Zealand, Israel and probably a few others.Sandpit said:
Which is exactly how every other country in the world operates an immigration programme - based on those who can be net contributors or who have specific skills to fill a shortage.0 -
Finns? I expect even British weather looks sunnier to them than back homeNemtynakht said:I’ve just dipped in and out on here this but it seems to me that the MAC report has highlighted what has been obvious for a long time.we dont really need low skill immigration, at the cost of unemployed low skill U.K. nationals. Conversely, the focus of the Tories on limiting immigration has meant that high skilled immigration has suffered, and we need more of this. Also in general we emigrate to retire, and foreign nationals come here to work. I have never met a foriegn national who has retired to th U.K. I know of many people who have gone ethe other way.
Has anyone met someone who has come to the UK to retire?0 -
Yes and no. One of the things that we have agreed to in order to be a community of nations with the EU27 is that our citizens have the right to go where they want. Several studies have shown this has a certain but by no means conclusive effect on GDP and per capita GDP. But I am not hung up on immigration and I believe that many Leavers (sorry not sure if you are one) are precisely hung up on immigration regardless of the economic arguments one way or the other. It is more often than not an excuse which politicians of all stripes use to blame their failings on.Tykejohnno said:
Don't get me wrong,I want immigration but only immigration the country needs,is that wrong ?TOPPING said:
And what would you change about Bradford West's immigration policy if you could? Is it pretty bad at the moment?Tykejohnno said:
Bradford west.TOPPING said:
You may. It is the glorious region of Acton.Tykejohnno said:
The one i live in,it looks even poorer with the poorest of the poor from the new countries of the eastern block.TOPPING said:
It would look pretty much the same as it does right now. Which "poor area's" did you have in mind?Tykejohnno said:
What would a Topping immigration control look like ?TOPPING said:
Good point plus of course putting in EU migration controls is simply to build a Maginot Line to repel foreigners.CarlottaVance said:
How it is now( which isn't good for poor area's)open borders to the world - what is it ?
May I ask what part of London you live ?
And you?0 -
I'm *glad* they didn't break down Merkel's door to ensure a soft Brexit with free trade. Cheating huns the lot of 'em. Bring back Austin, Sunbeam, and Alvis! Maybe not De Lorean though, at least without a working flux capacitor.FrancisUrquhart said:German carmakers BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen are to face an EU inquiry for allegedly conspiring to restrict diesel emissions treatment systems.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-455585880 -
I’m going to take a guess that this is a USA-specific deal. Different laws and rules in other markets and regions specifically ban gambling on sports events, advertising by gambling companies and gambling with overseas companies.FrancisUrquhart said:Formula 1's owners sign sponsorship rights deal for in-play betting
https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/45558975
Soon you will be able to bet on the length of pit-stop, how many swear words a driver uses over the radio and how many days at year Lewis Hamilton spends in the UK.
Lewis, definitely fewer than 90 days if he wants to avoid a large invoice from HMRC.0 -
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Shocking intro on WATO to the MAC report - "The picture you paint seems to be one of an overwhelmingly positive impact of EU immigration....."
Professor Manning put her right.....0 -
Agreed I think she would get it through even if Corbyn opposestpfkar said:
Yes I also find #3 on Barnesian's outline the one I'm not sure about; I think that if we get there, there's a Commons vote on the Boles plan to join the EEA temporarily, and I'm not sure whether there would be a no confidence vote on that measure, if only proposed once Cheequers had been voted down. I would expect her to walk a confidence vote in that scenario, and I'd be less sure if she was going to 2nd referendum.HYUFD said:
Most likely we will stay in the single market and customs union in all but name to get the withdrawal agreement and transition period and that should be enough to get through the House with Chequers used as the starting point for FTA negotiations in the transition periodBarnesian said:Excluding ill-health, I think the only way that Mrs May will cease to be PM next year is if she loses a leadership confidence motion from Tory MPs. In that unlikely event the Tory Government will also lose a vote of confidence in the House because no Tory successor will be acceptable to a majority of the House.
My scenario is as follows:
1. The modified Chequers deal is voted down by all opposition parties plus ERG.
2. This leaves "No deal".
3. Mrs May knows that is unacceptable but Chequers is dead. She announces "As Parliament has been unable to agree on a way forward, it is with great reluctance that my government will now ask the EU to extend A50 to allow the question to be put to the people in a referendum on the withdrawal terms"
4. There is immediately a vote of no confidence in Mrs May by Tory MPs.
5. If she wins the vote, - and she might because the alternative is a collapse of the Tory Government and a chaotic exit, - then a referendum will be called and she will continue as PM to implement the result.
6. If she loses the vote, and it is clear to the House that no possible Tory successor is going to survive a confidence vote of the House, then a temporary three month "Government of National Unity" under say Dominic Greave will be formed that has the support of a majority. The Queen allows it to form a Government. It extends A50 and calls a referendum after which there is a general election.
I do think Stephen Lloyd's pledge not to vote against should be making waves though - if even the Lib Dems aren't voting against in full there could be a lot of abstentions from Labour?0 -
There is a 1% swing from Labour to the Tories with Yougov today since 2017 which would be enough to give May a small majorityGIN1138 said:
And Jezza with a nice majority at the end of it...Danny565 said:
A May Vs Corbyn rematch is still the most likely combination for the next election.DavidL said:Having largely agreed with Osborne on election night that May was a dead woman walking and having got stung as a result I am inclined to go long on May at the moment. It’s not that she is any good ( she isn’t) but that there is no consensus on who would be better.
I think that she will get a deal not a million miles from Chequers but with quite a lot of important stuff left until later. Brexiteers won’t like it but will recognise that if they don’t take it there is a real risk we won’t leave at all. Remainers won’t like it but will recognise that a no deal exit is possible, even probable if they don’t. Just like with the leadership May is the worst possible solution apart from all the others.
Once she has that the difficult stuff then needs to be negotiated. Are we really going to change Captain during that? I increasingly think not.0 -
We should have had immigration controls when Blair agreed to the new Eastern EU states on joining.TOPPING said:
Yes and no. One of the things that we have agreed to in order to be a community of nations with the EU27 is that our citizens have the right to go where they want. Several studies have shown this has a certain but by no means conclusive effect on GDP and per capita GDP. But I am not hung up on immigration and I believe that many Leavers (sorry not sure if you are one) are precisely hung up on immigration regardless of the economic arguments one way or the other. It is more often than not an excuse which politicians of all stripes use to blame their failings on.Tykejohnno said:
Don't get me wrong,I want immigration but only immigration the country needs,is that wrong ?TOPPING said:
And what would you change about Bradford West's immigration policy if you could? Is it pretty bad at the moment?Tykejohnno said:
Bradford west.TOPPING said:
You may. It is the glorious region of Acton.Tykejohnno said:
The one i live in,it looks even poorer with the poorest of the poor from the new countries of the eastern block.TOPPING said:
It would look pretty much the same as it does right now. Which "poor area's" did you have in mind?Tykejohnno said:
What would a Topping immigration control look like ?TOPPING said:
Good point plus of course putting in EU migration controls is simply to build a Maginot Line to repel foreigners.CarlottaVance said:
How it is now( which isn't good for poor area's)open borders to the world - what is it ?
May I ask what part of London you live ?
And you?
Britain one of the richest countries opening the borders to the poorest countries in Europe was a great idea if you don't live in poorer area's.0 -
'That might be more of a problem'.williamglenn said:
'That might be more of a problem'.
Glad to see it's all been thought through!0 -
The rate of EU immigration is of course falling quite dramatically now but I appreciate that it might be a consequence of the vote.Tykejohnno said:
We should have had immigration controls when Blair agreed to the new Eastern EU states on joining.TOPPING said:
Yes and no. One of the things that we have agreed to in order to be a community of nations with the EU27 is that our citizens have the right to go where they want. Several studies have shown this has a certain but by no means conclusive effect on GDP and per capita GDP. But I am not hung up on immigration and I believe that many Leavers (sorry not sure if you are one) are precisely hung up on immigration regardless of the economic arguments one way or the other. It is more often than not an excuse which politicians of all stripes use to blame their failings on.Tykejohnno said:
Don't get me wrong,I want immigration but only immigration the country needs,is that wrong ?TOPPING said:
And what would you change about Bradford West's immigration policy if you could? Is it pretty bad at the moment?Tykejohnno said:
Bradford west.TOPPING said:
You may. It is the glorious region of Acton.Tykejohnno said:
The one i live in,it looks even poorer with the poorest of the poor from the new countries of the eastern block.TOPPING said:
It would look pretty much the same as it does right now. Which "poor area's" did you have in mind?Tykejohnno said:
What would a Topping immigration control look like ?TOPPING said:
Good point plus of course putting in EU migration controls is simply to build a Maginot Line to repel foreigners.CarlottaVance said:
How it is now( which isn't good for poor area's)open borders to the world - what is it ?
May I ask what part of London you live ?
And you?
Britain one of the richest countries opening the borders to the poorest countries in Europe was a great idea if you don't live in poorer area's.0 -
Still it won't be anywhere near the 13 thousand the labour government told us at the time.TOPPING said:
The rate of EU immigration is of course falling quite dramatically now but I appreciate that it might be a consequence of the vote.Tykejohnno said:
We should have had immigration controls when Blair agreed to the new Eastern EU states on joining.TOPPING said:
Yes and no. One of the things that we have agreed to in order to be a community of nations with the EU27 is that our citizens have the right to go where they want. Several studies have shown this has a certain but by no means conclusive effect on GDP and per capita GDP. But I am not hung up on immigration and I believe that many Leavers (sorry not sure if you are one) are precisely hung up on immigration regardless of the economic arguments one way or the other. It is more often than not an excuse which politicians of all stripes use to blame their failings on.Tykejohnno said:
Don't get me wrong,I want immigration but only immigration the country needs,is that wrong ?TOPPING said:
And what would you change about Bradford West's immigration policy if you could? Is it pretty bad at the moment?Tykejohnno said:
Bradford west.TOPPING said:
You may. It is the glorious region of Acton.Tykejohnno said:
The one i live in,it looks even poorer with the poorest of the poor from the new countries of the eastern block.TOPPING said:
It would look pretty much the same as it does right now. Which "poor area's" did you have in mind?Tykejohnno said:
What would a Topping immigration control look like ?TOPPING said:
Good point plus of course putting in EU migration controls is simply to build a Maginot Line to repel foreigners.CarlottaVance said:
How it is now( which isn't good for poor area's)open borders to the world - what is it ?
May I ask what part of London you live ?
And you?
Britain one of the richest countries opening the borders to the poorest countries in Europe was a great idea if you don't live in poorer area's.0 -
Not all too surprising when 52% of our country's population effectively says "F off you furriners". Not really very friendly environment to settle in. The irony is that it will be the highly skilled that turn away as they have other options. The low skilled will still come regardlessTOPPING said:
The rate of EU immigration is of course falling quite dramatically now but I appreciate that it might be a consequence of the vote.Tykejohnno said:
We should have had immigration controls when Blair agreed to the new Eastern EU states on joining.TOPPING said:
Yes and no. One of the things that we have agreed to in order to be a community of nations with the EU27 is that our citizens have the right to go where they want. Several studies have shown this has a certain but by no means conclusive effect on GDP and per capita GDP. But I am not hung up on immigration and I believe that many Leavers (sorry not sure if you are one) are precisely hung up on immigration regardless of the economic arguments one way or the other. It is more often than not an excuse which politicians of all stripes use to blame their failings on.Tykejohnno said:
Don't get me wrong,I want immigration but only immigration the country needs,is that wrong ?TOPPING said:
And what would you change about Bradford West's immigration policy if you could? Is it pretty bad at the moment?Tykejohnno said:
Bradford west.TOPPING said:
You may. It is the glorious region of Acton.Tykejohnno said:
The one i live in,it looks even poorer with the poorest of the poor from the new countries of the eastern block.TOPPING said:
It would look pretty much the same as it does right now. Which "poor area's" did you have in mind?Tykejohnno said:
What would a Topping immigration control look like ?TOPPING said:
Good point plus of course putting in EU migration controls is simply to build a Maginot Line to repel foreigners.CarlottaVance said:
How it is now( which isn't good for poor area's)open borders to the world - what is it ?
May I ask what part of London you live ?
And you?
Britain one of the richest countries opening the borders to the poorest countries in Europe was a great idea if you don't live in poorer area's.0 -
Top marks to the "Politics Live" producers for trolling - cutting short the usual monotonous Brexit arguments between Nick Clegg and Gisela Stuart by rolling the end credits prematurely:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/10420233015208837130 -
A lot of the British media are completely losing their minds over Brexit.DavidL said:
I found the way that stress testing of our banking system was presented last week bordering on the perverse. I really can’t believe that those very well paid chaps and chapesses at the BBC could be that stupid. It was wilful misrepresentation.GIN1138 said:Is it me or is BBC news becoming totally unhinged over the Brexit this week?
It's actually unwatchable at the moment...
Something similar is observed in the US, where the media have lost their collective minds over Trump.
In both cases their attitude is less than helpful towards the ‘side’ they support.0 -
After his spin BMW have issued a statement, which Mr Islam is now reporting saying the BMW have just brought forward the annual maintenance shutdown to coincide with Brexit leave day.Scott_P said:
A very sensible decision.
Edit I see his last tweet makes the point.0 -
What about the clip from Irish radio below? The problem with Brexit is that in order to deliver it you need to negotiate with people who are not on either side of your culture war.Sandpit said:
A lot of the British media are completely losing their minds over Brexit.DavidL said:
I found the way that stress testing of our banking system was presented last week bordering on the perverse. I really can’t believe that those very well paid chaps and chapesses at the BBC could be that stupid. It was wilful misrepresentation.GIN1138 said:Is it me or is BBC news becoming totally unhinged over the Brexit this week?
It's actually unwatchable at the moment...
Something similar is observed in the US, where the media have lost their collective minds over Trump.
In both cases their attitude is less than helpful towards the ‘side’ they support.0 -
The report is strikingly short on problems caused by EU immigration. The main problem seems to have been that a lot of old British people don’t like immigrants.CarlottaVance said:Shocking intro on WATO to the MAC report - "The picture you paint seems to be one of an overwhelmingly positive impact of EU immigration....."
Professor Manning put her right.....0 -
The mainstream media tends to be populated by people who are well educated and hold moderate views. They find populist movements that have given us Brexit, Trump and Corbyn gauche and ridiculous. They try to maintain balance, and impartiality but I understand their difficulty. Trying to be impartial about movements that are essentially advancing anti-cultural self- destructive bigotry is a big challenge.Sandpit said:
A lot of the British media are completely losing their minds over Brexit.DavidL said:
I found the way that stress testing of our banking system was presented last week bordering on the perverse. I really can’t believe that those very well paid chaps and chapesses at the BBC could be that stupid. It was wilful misrepresentation.GIN1138 said:Is it me or is BBC news becoming totally unhinged over the Brexit this week?
It's actually unwatchable at the moment...
Something similar is observed in the US, where the media have lost their collective minds over Trump.
In both cases their attitude is less than helpful towards the ‘side’ they support.0 -
So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.0
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Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
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Extremists always complain about the media. It gives them justification to close down dissent from their narrow minded viewpointsAlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
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Effectively there was collateral damage from a clampdown on high (and low) skilled immigration from outside the EU carried out for reasons of political expediency - that is in order to try and limit total net migration headcount and thus the political damage given that governments could do nothing about the impact on the headcount of the uncontrollable and excessive low skilled immigration from Eastern Europe.Nemtynakht said:I’ve just dipped in and out on here this but it seems to me that the MAC report has highlighted what has been obvious for a long time.we dont really need low skill immigration, at the cost of unemployed low skill U.K. nationals. Conversely, the focus of the Tories on limiting immigration has meant that high skilled immigration has suffered, and we need more of this.
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I will take great pleasure in voting against that twerp on every occasion I have the opportunity.williamglenn said:
Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
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They talk to themselves, and so fail to understand the world as it is.Nigel_Foremain said:
The mainstream media tends to be populated by people who are well educated and hold moderate views. They find populist movements that have given us Brexit, Trump and Corbyn gauche and ridiculous. They try to maintain balance, and impartiality but I understand their difficulty. Trying to be impartial about movements that are essentially advancing anti-cultural self- destructive bigotry is a big challenge.Sandpit said:
A lot of the British media are completely losing their minds over Brexit.DavidL said:
I found the way that stress testing of our banking system was presented last week bordering on the perverse. I really can’t believe that those very well paid chaps and chapesses at the BBC could be that stupid. It was wilful misrepresentation.GIN1138 said:Is it me or is BBC news becoming totally unhinged over the Brexit this week?
It's actually unwatchable at the moment...
Something similar is observed in the US, where the media have lost their collective minds over Trump.
In both cases their attitude is less than helpful towards the ‘side’ they support.
0 -
The 50% of immigration that comes from outside the EU is always conveniently forgotten about by Leavers.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Effectively there was collateral damage from a clampdown on high (and low) skilled immigration from outside the EU carried out for reasons of political expediency - that is in order to try and limit total net migration headcount and thus the political damage given that governments could do nothing about the impact on the headcount of the uncontrollable and excessive low skilled immigration from Eastern Europe.Nemtynakht said:I’ve just dipped in and out on here this but it seems to me that the MAC report has highlighted what has been obvious for a long time.we dont really need low skill immigration, at the cost of unemployed low skill U.K. nationals. Conversely, the focus of the Tories on limiting immigration has meant that high skilled immigration has suffered, and we need more of this.
0 -
Particularly dusky Muslim immigrants that apparently look like pillar boxes.AlastairMeeks said:
The report is strikingly short on problems caused by EU immigration. The main problem seems to have been that a lot of old British people don’t like immigrants.CarlottaVance said:Shocking intro on WATO to the MAC report - "The picture you paint seems to be one of an overwhelmingly positive impact of EU immigration....."
Professor Manning put her right.....
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If he loses his seat I’m classing it as a Tory gain.AlastairMeeks said:
I will take great pleasure in voting against that twerp on every occasion I have the opportunity.williamglenn said:
Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
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You should try watching SkyGIN1138 said:Is it me or is BBC news becoming totally unhinged over the Brexit this week?
It's actually unwatchable at the moment...0 -
Not a chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he loses his seat I’m classing it as a Tory gain.AlastairMeeks said:
I will take great pleasure in voting against that twerp on every occasion I have the opportunity.williamglenn said:
Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
0 -
They should have done it two minutes into the programme.Danny565 said:Top marks to the "Politics Live" producers for trolling - cutting short the usual monotonous Brexit arguments between Nick Clegg and Gisela Stuart by rolling the end credits prematurely:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1042023301520883713
Nick Clegg was arguing we should give preference to Bulgarian immigramnts over Canadian immigrants because Bulgaria is closer to the UK geographically.0 -
Harwich was Labour in 97 and there's evidence of a big swing away from Brexit in Essex generally so he could be a casualty in the right circumstances.Sean_F said:
Not a chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he loses his seat I’m classing it as a Tory gain.AlastairMeeks said:
I will take great pleasure in voting against that twerp on every occasion I have the opportunity.williamglenn said:
Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
0 -
Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
After a time earlier in the summer when it looked like the battle for congress might be tightening, it now seems the momentum is with the Dems heading for a 'Blue Wave' this November. They can easily expect to gain the house of representatives now, which brings the focus on to what happens in the Senate.
The received wisdom still seems to be that the GOP will hold the Senate, simply due to there being so many Dems up for election this year, and quite a few in Trump voting seats. I think the battle is actually much more of a 50/50 situation than that.
As it stands counting senators not up for re-election, and those favoured to win in November, you can probably put the GOP on 47 seats and the Dems on 43. Which leaves 10 competitive races; NV, AZ, ND, MO, IN, WV, FL, TN, TX, MT.
I think all the incumbent Dem senators in these races should be favoured to win, for the simple fact that incumbent senators don't lose races in their wave year. In fact you have to go back to 1994 to find a senate election that breaks this precedent when the Dems picked up a seat in South Dakota against the GOP wave. So i struggle to see that the fundamentals of the 2018 environment aren't going to get the Dems over the line in ND, MO, IN, WV, FL and MT. Which takes the Dems to 49.
Look at Florida where Rick Scott has spent a fortune bombarding the airwaves with ads and its only got him to level in the polls with Bill Nelson. If he had a real shot at winning he should be well ahead to counteract the headwinds coming his way as election day gets closer.
So it comes down to GOP held seats in NV, AZ, TN and TX. I'd say the Dems look strong in Nevada and Arizona based on current polling, but anything could happen. Texas is going to be an uphill struggle despite a strong candidate so I still think Cruz will be safe given it's Texas. Tennessee surprisingly looks like a toss up aswell (the latest CNN poll has the Dem up 5 points at 50-45). He's a great candidate for the Dems in a very GOP leaning state. This will come down to whether a strong candidate can overcome a state that voted heavily for trump. If you'd asked me earlier in the year I'd have said it was a slim chance, but the polls have put the Dem ahead pretty consistently so it's looking close.
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.0 -
Not true for the EU/Canada trade deal nor the EU/Japan trade deal.Danny565 said:
Yes, exactly. In an ideal world, there shouldn't be preferential treatment for EU citizens over rest-of-world citizens; but, in the real world, if we want a privileged trading relationship with the EU, then naturally we're going to have to give them privileges vis-a-vis the rest of the world in return.SouthamObserver said:0 -
Only if the dead get out of their graves and make their way to the ballot box. Last year, the dead gave more to the Conservative Party coffers than the living members .....HYUFD said:
There is a 1% swing from Labour to the Tories with Yougov today since 2017 which would be enough to give May a small majorityGIN1138 said:
And Jezza with a nice majority at the end of it...Danny565 said:
A May Vs Corbyn rematch is still the most likely combination for the next election.DavidL said:Having largely agreed with Osborne on election night that May was a dead woman walking and having got stung as a result I am inclined to go long on May at the moment. It’s not that she is any good ( she isn’t) but that there is no consensus on who would be better.
I think that she will get a deal not a million miles from Chequers but with quite a lot of important stuff left until later. Brexiteers won’t like it but will recognise that if they don’t take it there is a real risk we won’t leave at all. Remainers won’t like it but will recognise that a no deal exit is possible, even probable if they don’t. Just like with the leadership May is the worst possible solution apart from all the others.
Once she has that the difficult stuff then needs to be negotiated. Are we really going to change Captain during that? I increasingly think not.0 -
There's a world of difference between a single market and a trade deal.David_Evershed said:
Not true for the EU/Canada trade deal nor the EU/Japan trade deal.Danny565 said:
Yes, exactly. In an ideal world, there shouldn't be preferential treatment for EU citizens over rest-of-world citizens; but, in the real world, if we want a privileged trading relationship with the EU, then naturally we're going to have to give them privileges vis-a-vis the rest of the world in return.SouthamObserver said:0 -
Except the EU is only 20% of the World but 50% of immigration.Nigel_Foremain said:
The 50% of immigration that comes from outside the EU is always conveniently forgotten about by Leavers.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Effectively there was collateral damage from a clampdown on high (and low) skilled immigration from outside the EU carried out for reasons of political expediency - that is in order to try and limit total net migration headcount and thus the political damage given that governments could do nothing about the impact on the headcount of the uncontrollable and excessive low skilled immigration from Eastern Europe.Nemtynakht said:I’ve just dipped in and out on here this but it seems to me that the MAC report has highlighted what has been obvious for a long time.we dont really need low skill immigration, at the cost of unemployed low skill U.K. nationals. Conversely, the focus of the Tories on limiting immigration has meant that high skilled immigration has suffered, and we need more of this.
0 -
Essex seems like a reverse Merseyside: trending incessantly to the Right beyond what raw demographics would suggest.williamglenn said:
Harwich was Labour in 97 and there's evidence of a big swing away from Brexit in Essex generally so he could be a casualty in the right circumstances.Sean_F said:
Not a chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he loses his seat I’m classing it as a Tory gain.AlastairMeeks said:
I will take great pleasure in voting against that twerp on every occasion I have the opportunity.williamglenn said:
Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
0 -
What happened when he went against the useless Gordon brown then ?TheScreamingEagles said:0
-
Where is the evidence that Essex is hostile to Brexit? Rather the reverse.williamglenn said:
Harwich was Labour in 97 and there's evidence of a big swing away from Brexit in Essex generally so he could be a casualty in the right circumstances.Sean_F said:
Not a chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he loses his seat I’m classing it as a Tory gain.AlastairMeeks said:
I will take great pleasure in voting against that twerp on every occasion I have the opportunity.williamglenn said:
Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
0 -
Because they are our effing neighbours. I'm not asking you to derive according to first principles the Gravity model of international trade but you can at least understand the logic underpinning it. And so it goes for our relationship with the EU.David_Evershed said:
Except the EU is only 20% of the World but 50% of immigration.Nigel_Foremain said:
The 50% of immigration that comes from outside the EU is always conveniently forgotten about by Leavers.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Effectively there was collateral damage from a clampdown on high (and low) skilled immigration from outside the EU carried out for reasons of political expediency - that is in order to try and limit total net migration headcount and thus the political damage given that governments could do nothing about the impact on the headcount of the uncontrollable and excessive low skilled immigration from Eastern Europe.Nemtynakht said:I’ve just dipped in and out on here this but it seems to me that the MAC report has highlighted what has been obvious for a long time.we dont really need low skill immigration, at the cost of unemployed low skill U.K. nationals. Conversely, the focus of the Tories on limiting immigration has meant that high skilled immigration has suffered, and we need more of this.
0 -
less than a third now. Most immigration now is from Asia and Africa.David_Evershed said:
Except the EU is only 20% of the World but 50% of immigration.Nigel_Foremain said:
The 50% of immigration that comes from outside the EU is always conveniently forgotten about by Leavers.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Effectively there was collateral damage from a clampdown on high (and low) skilled immigration from outside the EU carried out for reasons of political expediency - that is in order to try and limit total net migration headcount and thus the political damage given that governments could do nothing about the impact on the headcount of the uncontrollable and excessive low skilled immigration from Eastern Europe.Nemtynakht said:I’ve just dipped in and out on here this but it seems to me that the MAC report has highlighted what has been obvious for a long time.we dont really need low skill immigration, at the cost of unemployed low skill U.K. nationals. Conversely, the focus of the Tories on limiting immigration has meant that high skilled immigration has suffered, and we need more of this.
0 -
He made over 100 Tory net gains in 2010.Tykejohnno said:What happened when he went against the useless Gordon brown then ?
TheScreamingEagles said:
IIRC it was the largest net gains by the Tories in a century.0 -
An incumbent Senator in Florida should be doing better than level-pegging, in a good year for his party.AllyPally_Rob said:Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
After a time earlier in the summer when it looked like the battle for congress might be tightening, it now seems the momentum is with the Dems heading for a 'Blue Wave' this November. They can easily expect to gain the house of representatives now, which brings the focus on to what happens in the Senate.
The received wisdom still seems to be that the GOP will hold the Senate, simply due to there being so many Dems up for election this year, and quite a few in Trump voting seats. I think the battle is actually much more of a 50/50 situation than that.
As it stands counting senators not up for re-election, and those favoured to win in November, you can probably put the GOP on 47 seats and the Dems on 43. Which leaves 10 competitive races; NV, AZ, ND, MO, IN, WV, FL, TN, TX, MT.
I think all the incumbent Dem senators in these races should be favoured to win, for the simple fact that incumbent senators don't lose races in their wave year. In fact you have to go back to 1994 to find a senate election that breaks this precedent when the Dems picked up a seat in South Dakota against the GOP wave. So i struggle to see that the fundamentals of the 2018 environment aren't going to get the Dems over the line in ND, MO, IN, WV, FL and MT. Which takes the Dems to 49.
Look at Florida where Rick Scott has spent a fortune bombarding the airwaves with ads and its only got him to level in the polls with Bill Nelson. If he had a real shot at winning he should be well ahead to counteract the headwinds coming his way as election day gets closer.
So it comes down to GOP held seats in NV, AZ, TN and TX. I'd say the Dems look strong in Nevada and Arizona based on current polling, but anything could happen. Texas is going to be an uphill struggle despite a strong candidate so I still think Cruz will be safe given it's Texas. Tennessee surprisingly looks like a toss up aswell (the latest CNN poll has the Dem up 5 points at 50-45). He's a great candidate for the Dems in a very GOP leaning state. This will come down to whether a strong candidate can overcome a state that voted heavily for trump. If you'd asked me earlier in the year I'd have said it was a slim chance, but the polls have put the Dem ahead pretty consistently so it's looking close.
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.0 -
Vince Cable ( who) about to deliver his conference speech
Watching the coverage on Sky they have only one tune, give us a peoples vote, we didnt vote for this or that, the public were mislead, etc, etc.
Not one word on how to appeal to the 52% or any relevant policies
They have become the party of local government and nothing else0 -
I just said a swing away from Brexit. The constituency analysis of the two big YouGov polls shows that Colchester, Chelmsford and Ipswich are all now pro-Remain and the rest of the county no longer shows such big leads for Brexit.Sean_F said:
Where is the evidence that Essex is hostile to Brexit? Rather the reverse.williamglenn said:
Harwich was Labour in 97 and there's evidence of a big swing away from Brexit in Essex generally so he could be a casualty in the right circumstances.Sean_F said:
Not a chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he loses his seat I’m classing it as a Tory gain.AlastairMeeks said:
I will take great pleasure in voting against that twerp on every occasion I have the opportunity.williamglenn said:
Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
0 -
I expect there's still a big lead for Leave in Harwich, and the county generally.williamglenn said:
I just said a swing away from Brexit. The constituency analysis of the two big YouGov polls shows that Colchester, Chelmsford and Ipswich are all now pro-Remain and the rest of the county no longer shows such big leads for Brexit.Sean_F said:
Where is the evidence that Essex is hostile to Brexit? Rather the reverse.williamglenn said:
Harwich was Labour in 97 and there's evidence of a big swing away from Brexit in Essex generally so he could be a casualty in the right circumstances.Sean_F said:
Not a chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he loses his seat I’m classing it as a Tory gain.AlastairMeeks said:
I will take great pleasure in voting against that twerp on every occasion I have the opportunity.williamglenn said:
Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
0 -
Isn't Ipswich in Suffolk?williamglenn said:
I just said a swing away from Brexit. The constituency analysis of the two big YouGov polls shows that Colchester, Chelmsford and Ipswich are all now pro-Remain and the rest of the county no longer shows such big leads for Brexit.Sean_F said:
Where is the evidence that Essex is hostile to Brexit? Rather the reverse.williamglenn said:
Harwich was Labour in 97 and there's evidence of a big swing away from Brexit in Essex generally so he could be a casualty in the right circumstances.Sean_F said:
Not a chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he loses his seat I’m classing it as a Tory gain.AlastairMeeks said:
I will take great pleasure in voting against that twerp on every occasion I have the opportunity.williamglenn said:
Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
0 -
*Sigh*HYUFD said:
There is a 1% swing from Labour to the Tories with Yougov today since 2017 which would be enough to give May a small majorityGIN1138 said:
And Jezza with a nice majority at the end of it...Danny565 said:
A May Vs Corbyn rematch is still the most likely combination for the next election.DavidL said:Having largely agreed with Osborne on election night that May was a dead woman walking and having got stung as a result I am inclined to go long on May at the moment. It’s not that she is any good ( she isn’t) but that there is no consensus on who would be better.
I think that she will get a deal not a million miles from Chequers but with quite a lot of important stuff left until later. Brexiteers won’t like it but will recognise that if they don’t take it there is a real risk we won’t leave at all. Remainers won’t like it but will recognise that a no deal exit is possible, even probable if they don’t. Just like with the leadership May is the worst possible solution apart from all the others.
Once she has that the difficult stuff then needs to be negotiated. Are we really going to change Captain during that? I increasingly think not.
May had a 25% poll lead FOUR WEEKS before the 2017 general election!0 -
At least there's no chance of him being stuck in the middle of the "man" as the sacrificial virgin, and we can look forward to many more of his epistles for sometime to come..... On second thoughts, though...FrancisUrquhart said:SeanT will be disappointed if they send him to Burning Man to do a review...
What it's like going to Burning Man for the first time
Even the Orgy Dome, which I have envisioned as a den of sweaty carnality so iniquitous it would make the devil blush, has its own set of rules.
"The Orgy Dome is so boring," a campmate complains. "First, you have to hear this long lecture about consent. Then you have to wait in line forever. And then, once you get in, it's mostly just couples laying around. It's the most organized sex you'll ever have in your life."
"It's true," a friend volunteers. "The only good reason to go to the Orgy Dome is if you want to take a nap."
http://uk.businessinsider.com/what-its-like-going-to-burning-man-for-first-time-photos-2018-9?r=US&IR=T0 -
Listening to Cable this morning on Today made me swerve towards ardent Brexitism. Thank goodness they followed it up with an interview with one Nigel Farage, which restored me to sane Remainerdom.Big_G_NorthWales said:Vince Cable ( who) about to deliver his conference speech
Watching the coverage on Sky they have only one tune, give us a peoples vote, we didnt vote for this or that, the public were mislead, etc, etc.
Not one word on how to appeal to the 52% or any relevant policies
They have become the party of local government and nothing else0 -
Scott won his two governors races by 1.2% and 1% in 2010 and 2014. Both Wave years for the GOP. The fundamentals say he isn't going to win in a Blue Wave year, altough he'll probably keep it comparatively close.Sean_F said:
An incumbent Senator in Florida should be doing better than level-pegging, in a good year for his party.AllyPally_Rob said:Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
After a time earlier in the summer when it looked like the battle for congress might be tightening, it now seems the momentum is with the Dems heading for a 'Blue Wave' this November. They can easily expect to gain the house of representatives now, which brings the focus on to what happens in the Senate.
The received wisdom still seems to be that the GOP will hold the Senate, simply due to there being so many Dems up for election this year, and quite a few in Trump voting seats. I think the battle is actually much more of a 50/50 situation than that.
As it stands counting senators not up for re-election, and those favoured to win in November, you can probably put the GOP on 47 seats and the Dems on 43. Which leaves 10 competitive races; NV, AZ, ND, MO, IN, WV, FL, TN, TX, MT.
I think all the incumbent Dem senators in these races should be favoured to win, for the simple fact that incumbent senators don't lose races in their wave year. In fact you have to go back to 1994 to find a senate election that breaks this precedent when the Dems picked up a seat in South Dakota against the GOP wave. So i struggle to see that the fundamentals of the 2018 environment aren't going to get the Dems over the line in ND, MO, IN, WV, FL and MT. Which takes the Dems to 49.
Look at Florida where Rick Scott has spent a fortune bombarding the airwaves with ads and its only got him to level in the polls with Bill Nelson. If he had a real shot at winning he should be well ahead to counteract the headwinds coming his way as election day gets closer.
So it comes down to GOP held seats in NV, AZ, TN and TX. I'd say the Dems look strong in Nevada and Arizona based on current polling, but anything could happen. Texas is going to be an uphill struggle despite a strong candidate so I still think Cruz will be safe given it's Texas. Tennessee surprisingly looks like a toss up aswell (the latest CNN poll has the Dem up 5 points at 50-45). He's a great candidate for the Dems in a very GOP leaning state. This will come down to whether a strong candidate can overcome a state that voted heavily for trump. If you'd asked me earlier in the year I'd have said it was a slim chance, but the polls have put the Dem ahead pretty consistently so it's looking close.
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.0 -
Impressive from the Foreign Secretary:
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/10420289696572866570 -
Good point! But it has similar characteristics.welshowl said:
Isn't Ipswich in Suffolk?williamglenn said:
I just said a swing away from Brexit. The constituency analysis of the two big YouGov polls shows that Colchester, Chelmsford and Ipswich are all now pro-Remain and the rest of the county no longer shows such big leads for Brexit.Sean_F said:
Where is the evidence that Essex is hostile to Brexit? Rather the reverse.williamglenn said:
Harwich was Labour in 97 and there's evidence of a big swing away from Brexit in Essex generally so he could be a casualty in the right circumstances.Sean_F said:
Not a chance.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he loses his seat I’m classing it as a Tory gain.AlastairMeeks said:
I will take great pleasure in voting against that twerp on every occasion I have the opportunity.williamglenn said:
Did you hear Bernard Jenkin yesterday? "I never actually wanted to leave the EU. It was David Cameron who insisted on the in/out referendum."AlastairMeeks said:So Leavers have reached the point of complaining about the media. The idea that it may be their cherished prejudices rather than the reporting being the problem evidently hasn’t occurred to them.
0 -
Put's Boris Johnson's polyglot pretensions to shame.Tissue_Price said:Impressive from the Foreign Secretary:
0 -
The two extremes of the argumentTOPPING said:
Listening to Cable this morning on Today made me swerve towards ardent Brexitism. Thank goodness they followed it up with an interview with one Nigel Farage, which restored me to sane Remainerdom.Big_G_NorthWales said:Vince Cable ( who) about to deliver his conference speech
Watching the coverage on Sky they have only one tune, give us a peoples vote, we didnt vote for this or that, the public were mislead, etc, etc.
Not one word on how to appeal to the 52% or any relevant policies
They have become the party of local government and nothing else0 -
So is Chad. Not a great argument from the Cleggster, there.David_Evershed said:
They should have done it two minutes into the programme.Danny565 said:Top marks to the "Politics Live" producers for trolling - cutting short the usual monotonous Brexit arguments between Nick Clegg and Gisela Stuart by rolling the end credits prematurely:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1042023301520883713
Nick Clegg was arguing we should give preference to Bulgarian immigramnts over Canadian immigrants because Bulgaria is closer to the UK geographically.
[To preempt any suggestions that this country was picked on the basis of colour: "Transparency International has ranked Chad as one of the most corrupt nations in the world. In 2007, it scored 1.8 out of 10 on the Corruption Perceptions Index (with 10 being the least corrupt). Only Tonga, Uzbekistan, Haiti, Iraq, Myanmar, and Somalia scored lower."]0 -
Very impressive .Tissue_Price said:Impressive from the Foreign Secretary:
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/10420289696572866570 -
Also, Trump's ratings have held up a lot better in Florida than they have nationally.AllyPally_Rob said:
Scott won his two governors races by 1.2% and 1% in 2010 and 2014. Both Wave years for the GOP. The fundamentals say he isn't going to win in a Blue Wave year, altough he'll probably keep it comparatively close.Sean_F said:
An incumbent Senator in Florida should be doing better than level-pegging, in a good year for his party.AllyPally_Rob said:Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
After a time earlier in the summer when it looked like the battle for congress might be tightening, it now seems the momentum is with the Dems heading for a 'Blue Wave' this November. They can easily expect to gain the house of representatives now, which brings the focus on to what happens in the Senate.
The received wisdom still seems to be that the GOP will hold the Senate, simply due to there being so many Dems up for election this year, and quite a few in Trump voting seats. I think the battle is actually much more of a 50/50 situation than that.
As it stands counting senators not up for re-election, and those favoured to win in November, you can probably put the GOP on 47 seats and the Dems on 43. Which leaves 10 competitive races; NV, AZ, ND, MO, IN, WV, FL, TN, TX, MT.
get the Dems over the line in ND, MO, IN, WV, FL and MT. Which takes the Dems to 49.
Look at Florida where Rick Scott has spent a fortune bombarding the airwaves with ads and its only got him to level in the polls with Bill Nelson. If he had a real shot at winning he should be well ahead to counteract the headwinds coming his way as election day gets closer.
So it comes down to GOP held seats in NV, AZ, TN and TX. I'd say the Dems look strong in Nevada and Arizona based on current polling, but anything could happen. Texas is going to be an uphill struggle despite a strong candidate so I still think Cruz will be safe given it's Texas. Tennessee surprisingly looks like a toss up aswell (the latest CNN poll has the Dem up 5 points at 50-45). He's a great candidate for the Dems in a very GOP leaning state. This will come down to whether a strong candidate can overcome a state that voted heavily for trump. If you'd asked me earlier in the year I'd have said it was a slim chance, but the polls have put the Dem ahead pretty consistently so it's looking close.
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.0 -
Nice one. Good to see a sensible person representing us abroad. He will go down well in Japan; polite and pretty humble for a politician (no gags about "much to be humble about" please, it has been done before!)Tissue_Price said:Impressive from the Foreign Secretary:
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/10420289696572866570 -
-
To be fair, it is afternoon nap time for him...normally followed by a spot of Countdown.Scott_P said:0 -
He is way past his sell by dateScott_P said:0 -
What is the point of the Lib Dems? Explanation 9 is the best:
“It’s basically just a drinking society for people who like politics,” someone told me. Like the Sealed Knot re-enacting battles without the danger of bloodshed, the Lib Dems re-enact politics without the danger of power.
https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/09/what-point-liberal-democrats0 -
Bit passed his sell by. Peaked when he was caretaker leader.Scott_P said:0 -
To be fair, Exotic Sprasms do lead to the best sorts of Erotic Spasms. Costly, mind.FrancisUrquhart said:
To be fair, it is afternoon nap time for him...normally followed by a spot of Countdown.Scott_P said:0 -
Talking about selling remain - he would be better at selling funeral plansNigel_Foremain said:
Bit passed his sell by. Peaked when he was caretaker leader.Scott_P said:0 -
Looks to me that the Ds are set to pick up AZ, NV and TN of those three, and TX (Texas!) is looking a lot more likely a D pickup than it should. Against that FL, IN, and ND are looking iffy, although I think the Ds will retain FL on balance. All in all I think the best the GOP can hope for is maintaining the current 51/49 balance in their favour, and a 50/50 split is probably the most likely outcome (Ds pick up AZ, NV and TN but fail to retain IN and ND). Mike Pence will be busy.AllyPally_Rob said:Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
[...]
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.0 -
Peaked on d.o.b, I'd sayNigel_Foremain said:
Bit passed his sell by. Peaked when he was caretaker leader.Scott_P said:0 -
Yet, strangely enough, the one time the Lib Dems were in government now seems like a halcyon period.Tissue_Price said:What is the point of the Lib Dems? Explanation 9 is the best:
“It’s basically just a drinking society for people who like politics,” someone told me. Like the Sealed Knot re-enacting battles without the danger of bloodshed, the Lib Dems re-enact politics without the danger of power.
https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/09/what-point-liberal-democrats0 -
My own view is that the Republicans will hold TN, given how Red it is.rpjs said:
Looks to me that the Ds are set to pick up AZ, NV and TN of those three, and TX (Texas!) is looking a lot more likely a D pickup than it should. Against that FL, IN, and ND are looking iffy, although I think the Ds will retain FL on balance. All in all I think the best the GOP can hope for is maintaining the current 51/49 balance in their favour, and a 50/50 split is probably the most likely outcome (Ds pick up AZ, NV and TN but fail to retain IN and ND). Mike Pence will be busy.AllyPally_Rob said:Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
[...]
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.0 -
It was a very good governmentAlastairMeeks said:
Yet, strangely enough, the one time the Lib Dems were in government now seems like a halcyon period.Tissue_Price said:What is the point of the Lib Dems? Explanation 9 is the best:
“It’s basically just a drinking society for people who like politics,” someone told me. Like the Sealed Knot re-enacting battles without the danger of bloodshed, the Lib Dems re-enact politics without the danger of power.
https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/09/what-point-liberal-democrats0 -
The $64,000 question in FL is how many Puerto Ricans moved there after Irma, and have they registered to vote?Sean_F said:
Also, Trump's ratings have held up a lot better in Florida than they have nationally.AllyPally_Rob said:
Scott won his two governors races by 1.2% and 1% in 2010 and 2014. Both Wave years for the GOP. The fundamentals say he isn't going to win in a Blue Wave year, altough he'll probably keep it comparatively close.Sean_F said:
An incumbent Senator in Florida should be doing better than level-pegging, in a good year for his party.AllyPally_Rob said:Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
After a time earlier in the summer when it looked like the battle for congress might be tightening, it now seems the momentum is with the Dems heading for a 'Blue Wave' this November. They can easily expect to gain the house of representatives now, which brings the focus on to what happens in the Senate.
The received wisdom still seems to be that the GOP will hold the Senate, simply due to there being so many Dems up for election this year, and quite a few in Trump voting seats. I think the battle is actually much more of a 50/50 situation than that.
As it stands counting senators not up for re-election, and those favoured to win in November, you can probably put the GOP on 47 seats and the Dems on 43. Which leaves 10 competitive races; NV, AZ, ND, MO, IN, WV, FL, TN, TX, MT.
get the Dems over the line in ND, MO, IN, WV, FL and MT. Which takes the Dems to 49.
Look at Florida where Rick Scott has spent a fortune bombarding the airwaves with ads and its only got him to level in the polls with Bill Nelson. If he had a real shot at winning he should be well ahead to counteract the headwinds coming his way as election day gets closer.
So it comes down to GOP held seats in NV, AZ, TN and TX. I'd say the Dems look strong in Nevada and Arizona based on current polling, but anything could happen. Texas is going to be an uphill struggle despite a strong candidate so I still think Cruz will be safe given it's Texas. Tennessee surprisingly looks like a toss up aswell (the latest CNN poll has the Dem up 5 points at 50-45). He's a great candidate for the Dems in a very GOP leaning state. This will come down to whether a strong candidate can overcome a state that voted heavily for trump. If you'd asked me earlier in the year I'd have said it was a slim chance, but the polls have put the Dem ahead pretty consistently so it's looking close.
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.0 -
It was a very good government. They should have told people so. (Not that it would have helped much - "the little party always gets smashed").AlastairMeeks said:
Yet, strangely enough, the one time the Lib Dems were in government now seems like a halcyon period.Tissue_Price said:What is the point of the Lib Dems? Explanation 9 is the best:
“It’s basically just a drinking society for people who like politics,” someone told me. Like the Sealed Knot re-enacting battles without the danger of bloodshed, the Lib Dems re-enact politics without the danger of power.
https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/09/what-point-liberal-democrats0 -
"Call us to learn about the benefits of the single market, and you'll get a free Parker pen just for enquiring."Big_G_NorthWales said:
Talking about selling remain - he would be better at selling funeral plansNigel_Foremain said:
Bit passed his sell by. Peaked when he was caretaker leader.Scott_P said:0 -
Just switched on Vince.
Seems to be talking about replacing himself with a robot.
Or have I got the wrong end of the stick?0 -
Would anybody notice?rottenborough said:Just switched on Vince.
Seems to be talking about replacing himself with a robot.
Or have I got the wrong end of the stick?0 -
Without the danger of bloodshed??? Have you seen how they all carry a sharp knife, for the plunging between the shoulder blades of their potential leadership rivals....Tissue_Price said:What is the point of the Lib Dems? Explanation 9 is the best:
“It’s basically just a drinking society for people who like politics,” someone told me. Like the Sealed Knot re-enacting battles without the danger of bloodshed, the Lib Dems re-enact politics without the danger of power.
https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/09/what-point-liberal-democrats0 -
Broadbend (sic) cabling is coming according to Vince0
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A robot would have far more idea than Cable. If I was a lib dem I would despairrottenborough said:Just switched on Vince.
Seems to be talking about replacing himself with a robot.
Or have I got the wrong end of the stick?
I also do not understand why conference speeches are delivered in the afternoon rather than a sensible morning slot.0 -
That was then. Cable is most renowned for carrying around a Matthew Oakeshott poll...MarqueeMark said:
Without the danger of bloodshed??? Have you seen how they all carry a sharp knife, for the plunging between the shoulder blades of their potential leadership rivals....Tissue_Price said:What is the point of the Lib Dems? Explanation 9 is the best:
“It’s basically just a drinking society for people who like politics,” someone told me. Like the Sealed Knot re-enacting battles without the danger of bloodshed, the Lib Dems re-enact politics without the danger of power.
https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/09/what-point-liberal-democrats0 -
Now over to Susie Dent to check that...rottenborough said:Broadbend (sic) cabling is coming according to Vince
I am afraid Vince I can't allow your 9 letter word....0 -
Well, unless they send our POWs on Death Marches again....Tissue_Price said:Impressive from the Foreign Secretary:
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/10420289696572866570 -
Next PM nailed on after that. If only someone had tipped him at 100/1.Tissue_Price said:Impressive from the Foreign Secretary:
https://twitter.com/foreignoffice/status/1042028969657286657
His wife is Japanese isn’t she?
No surprise to see him fluent in the lingo.
0 -
The idea of Vince Cable as a fluffer is just too bizarre even for mind bleach to deal with....Tissue_Price said:0 -
Damnit.
I missed a ‘turning Japanese’ gag there.0
