What is the point of the Lib Dems? Explanation 9 is the best: “It’s basically just a drinking society for people who like politics,” someone told me. Like the Sealed Knot re-enacting battles without the danger of bloodshed, the Lib Dems re-enact politics without the danger of power. https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/09/what-point-liberal-democrats
Yet, strangely enough, the one time the Lib Dems were in government now seems like a halcyon period.
My favourite thing about that article is its subheading - "To cement its identity in future coalitions, the party needs to own departments." Ah, for the optimism of 2014!
What is the point of the Lib Dems? Explanation 9 is the best: “It’s basically just a drinking society for people who like politics,” someone told me. Like the Sealed Knot re-enacting battles without the danger of bloodshed, the Lib Dems re-enact politics without the danger of power. https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/09/what-point-liberal-democrats
Yet, strangely enough, the one time the Lib Dems were in government now seems like a halcyon period.
My favourite thing about that article is its subheading - "To cement its identity in future coalitions, the party needs to own departments." Ah, for the optimism of 2014!
They should have done from the start. Picasso > Turquoise, as I remember discussing on here.
Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections
[snip]
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.
As you rightly say, to get a majority the Dems need to win 8 out of the 10 competitive races (including TN and TX as competitive).
If those were independent events each with a 75% chance of coming good for them, that just pips a 50% probability overall (52.56% according to my calculations). OK, they are not independent, but the nationwide swing to the Dems is already in the pundits' subjective assessments and state-wide polling, so I think you are overstating it. Nate Silver's current statistical model shows a 32.5% chance, which looks realistic to me.
Vince Cable is monotonous and rambling. He is the perfect speaker to send an audience to sleep
The LDs would probably be on 15% with a different leader.
And Labour on 30%.....
If politics weren't so polarised by Brexit as well as anti-Tory and anti-Labour voting, you could easily imagine fragmentation as in other European countries, with the Greens also picking up support.
Vince Cable is monotonous and rambling. He is the perfect speaker to send an audience to sleep
The LDs would probably be on 15% with a different leader.
And Labour on 30%.....
If politics weren't so polarised by Brexit as well as anti-Tory and anti-Labour voting, you could easily imagine fragmentation as in other European countries, with the Greens also picking up support.
Vince Cable is monotonous and rambling. He is the perfect speaker to send an audience to sleep
The LDs would probably be on 15% with a different leader.
And Labour on 30%.....
If politics weren't so polarised by Brexit as well as anti-Tory and anti-Labour voting, you could easily imagine fragmentation as in other European countries, with the Greens also picking up support.
Maybe but more worrying would be the rise of the hard right
Vince Cable is monotonous and rambling. He is the perfect speaker to send an audience to sleep
The LDs would probably be on 15% with a different leader.
And Labour on 30%.....
If politics weren't so polarised by Brexit as well as anti-Tory and anti-Labour voting, you could easily imagine fragmentation as in other European countries, with the Greens also picking up support.
Vince Cable is monotonous and rambling. He is the perfect speaker to send an audience to sleep
The LDs would probably be on 15% with a different leader.
And Labour on 30%.....
If politics weren't so polarised by Brexit as well as anti-Tory and anti-Labour voting, you could easily imagine fragmentation as in other European countries, with the Greens also picking up support.
One needs PR to fragment.
Not necessarily. Regional fragmentation à la the SNP and Northern Irish parties can also happen.
Vince Cable is monotonous and rambling. He is the perfect speaker to send an audience to sleep
The LDs would probably be on 15% with a different leader.
And Labour on 30%.....
If politics weren't so polarised by Brexit as well as anti-Tory and anti-Labour voting, you could easily imagine fragmentation as in other European countries, with the Greens also picking up support.
Some of us (well, me) have been saying for some time that Jeremy Corbyn's age means that the possibility of him standing down soon should not be underestimated. This looks like part of a retirement plan to me.
Some of us (well, me) have been saying for some time that Jeremy Corbyn's age means that the possibility of him standing down soon should not be underestimated. This looks like part of a retirement plan to me.
Vince Cable is monotonous and rambling. He is the perfect speaker to send an audience to sleep
The LDs would probably be on 15% with a different leader.
And Labour on 30%.....
If politics weren't so polarised by Brexit as well as anti-Tory and anti-Labour voting, you could easily imagine fragmentation as in other European countries, with the Greens also picking up support.
That's a lot of ifs....
And the Greens would actually have to offer something to pick up support.
Their lack of impact has been compounded by their lacklustre new leadership team.
Plus they are not without internal issues that are causing them to look inwards - such as Trans rights, not paying both joint leaders equally and their own antisemitic fringe.
Caroline Lucas alternating between being angry and being earnest is hardly reason to switch to them at the moment.
Some of us (well, me) have been saying for some time that Jeremy Corbyn's age means that the possibility of him standing down soon should not be underestimated. This looks like part of a retirement plan to me.
It is also very clear that John McDonnell is on manoeuvres. Watch this space.
Vince Cable is monotonous and rambling. He is the perfect speaker to send an audience to sleep
The LDs would probably be on 15% with a different leader.
And Labour on 30%.....
If politics weren't so polarised by Brexit as well as anti-Tory and anti-Labour voting, you could easily imagine fragmentation as in other European countries, with the Greens also picking up support.
That's a lot of ifs....
And the Greens would actually have to offer something to pick up support.
Their lack of impact has been compounded by their lacklustre new leadership team.
Plus they are not without internal issues that are causing them to look inwards - such as Trans rights, not paying both joint leaders equally and their own antisemitic fringe.
Caroline Lucas alternating between being angry and being earnest is hardly reason to switch to them at the moment.
Londoners are arrogant and insular according to a new You Gov report
Hard to argue with that
According to provincials.
And what do those idiots know?
I thought you were a provincial now??
I've got a foot in both camps for a few more weeks/months, depending on how my flat sale goes. I reserve the right to be rude about everyone (so no change there then).
Some of us (well, me) have been saying for some time that Jeremy Corbyn's age means that the possibility of him standing down soon should not be underestimated. This looks like part of a retirement plan to me.
It is also very clear that John McDonnell is on manoeuvres. Watch this space.
Yes, but not clear whether the manoeuvres are aimed at making John McDonnell leader, or someone else to carry the true flame. Maybe he hasn't decided yet.
Some of us (well, me) have been saying for some time that Jeremy Corbyn's age means that the possibility of him standing down soon should not be underestimated. This looks like part of a retirement plan to me.
It is also very clear that John McDonnell is on manoeuvres. Watch this space.
Some of us (well, me) have been saying for some time that Jeremy Corbyn's age means that the possibility of him standing down soon should not be underestimated. This looks like part of a retirement plan to me.
It is also very clear that John McDonnell is on manoeuvres. Watch this space.
But Nick Palmer has repeatedly assured us that he wouldn't move against Corbyn or seek the leadership.
Great. We’ll have all the Irish-passported tax-efficient private equity barons and not the Eastern European big issue sales reps please.
Oh? You didn’t realise there’s a difference between mean and median?
You don't get the one without the other. That's the point.
Not true. It is possible to be selective about who you let in. Virtually every other country in the world manages
And so do we. We let people in from our nearest trading bloc neighbour, but not someone from, say, Zhonghua Renmin GongHeGuo.
We do at the moment
But I was responding to @SouthamObserver claim that it’s not possible to discriminate between Irish fat cats and Romanian street sellers. Of course it is
I did not say it was not possible. I said that it would not be advisable to do it if in discriminating against lower-skilled EU migrants we make the UK less attractive for higher skilled ones.
I believe your words were “of course it is. That’s the point”
Some of us (well, me) have been saying for some time that Jeremy Corbyn's age means that the possibility of him standing down soon should not be underestimated. This looks like part of a retirement plan to me.
It is also very clear that John McDonnell is on manoeuvres. Watch this space.
I have a 50/1 bet on John McDonnell for next Labour leader, courtesy of Bet365. I tipped this in 2015.
Amazingly, he wouldn't be my best result in this particular market, or even in my top three.
And what are the moderates going to do about this "Bolshevik" plot...absolutely sweet FA.
Given the appalling way opponents of Corbyn aimed to keep him off the ballot when he was facing a leadership challenge I think it makes sense that his supporters would be wary about an interim leader trying to subvert the rules.
Mr. Gin, the censorious gimpishness and technological illiteracy of the EU is something to behold, whether it's the #VATmess, the antique books delinquency, or the latest clampdown on harmless memes.
Regardless of staying in or leaving the EU, it's bloody alarming.
Not that UK politics is immune to that. Both May and Cooper (and Rudd, when she was in Cabinet) have displayed a weird belief that algorithms can use magic to make the interweb safe for everyone. And the less said about the cretinous attempt to ban encryption the better.
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
Some of us (well, me) have been saying for some time that Jeremy Corbyn's age means that the possibility of him standing down soon should not be underestimated. This looks like part of a retirement plan to me.
It is also very clear that John McDonnell is on manoeuvres. Watch this space.
But Nick Palmer has repeatedly assured us that he wouldn't move against Corbyn or seek the leadership.
Loyalist behaves as unthinking loyalist. Once the [King/Chair] is dead, long live the [King/Queen/Chair]. Tick tock etc.
Vince Cable is monotonous and rambling. He is the perfect speaker to send an audience to sleep
The LDs would probably be on 15% with a different leader.
Who?
Anyone with a bit more energy, such as Layla Moran or Jo Swinson.
Mike Hancock.
Haha. I know there were reasons why he stood down, but Tim Farron was growing into the role, and what he was good at was getting heard and energetic campaigning. Feels like the Lib Dems might have been more visible if he'd remained leader. He may well have grown gravitas over time as well.
Mr. Gin, the censorious gimpishness and technological illiteracy of the EU is something to behold, whether it's the #VATmess, the antique books delinquency, or the latest clampdown on harmless memes.
Regardless of staying in or leaving the EU, it's bloody alarming.
Not that UK politics is immune to that. Both May and Cooper (and Rudd, when she was in Cabinet) have displayed a weird belief that algorithms can use magic to make the interweb safe for everyone. And the less said about the cretinous attempt to ban encryption the better.
Yep, politicians and tech should never meet.
But I've noticed the latest madness from the EU with Articles 11 and 13 has even upset quite a few young (former?) Remainers so every cloud and all that...
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
That must be the greatest worry for the Conservatives. McDonnell is far better at politics than Corbyn, indeed he would be the best Labour leader in terms of doing politics since Blair. He plays the political game far better than most of the current crop of Conservatives and would, in a GE, run rings round the likes of Javid and Hunt.
The truth is the policies would stop him getting elected but he plays the political game well and is, I suspect, like all good politicians, absolutely ruthless.
Mr. Gin, the censorious gimpishness and technological illiteracy of the EU is something to behold, whether it's the #VATmess, the antique books delinquency, or the latest clampdown on harmless memes.
Regardless of staying in or leaving the EU, it's bloody alarming.
Not that UK politics is immune to that. Both May and Cooper (and Rudd, when she was in Cabinet) have displayed a weird belief that algorithms can use magic to make the interweb safe for everyone. And the less said about the cretinous attempt to ban encryption the better.
Politicians have never understood technology, and the problem is definitely getting worse as the tech becomes more pervasive. A large part of the problem is that they only ever talk to either security services or large company lobbyists, both of whom have something of an anti-consumer agenda to push.
Politicians thinking that they can somehow ban mathematics was probably the new low among many recent stories.
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
I am sure someone mentioned on here that he had some health concerns which might make it less likely that he would push for the leadership. But not sure what they are...
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
The truth is the policies would stop him getting elected but he plays the political game well and is, I suspect, like all good politicians, absolutely ruthless.
He's clever enough to know that - so he wouldn't run on the scarier ones - waiting until he got into office 'Things are worse than we thought - we need to go further'
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
I am sure someone mentioned on here that he had some health concerns which might make it less likely that he would push for the leadership. But not sure what they are...
Although technically, the SPD would cease to be the 2nd party, replaced by the Greens. So it wouldn't drop by that much. The FDP and Linke hovering around the 5% mark is the most important stat however, them achieving or not achieving that figure will make a big difference to what kind of coalition emerges. The Bavarians aren't used to coalitions...
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
Some of us (well, me) have been saying for some time that Jeremy Corbyn's age means that the possibility of him standing down soon should not be underestimated. This looks like part of a retirement plan to me.
It is also very clear that John McDonnell is on manoeuvres. Watch this space.
I have a 50/1 bet on John McDonnell for next Labour leader, courtesy of Bet365. I tipped this in 2015.
Amazingly, he wouldn't be my best result in this particular market, or even in my top three.
I have more runners and riders (both backed and laid) in the next Labour leader market than a typical grand national field.
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
I am sure someone mentioned on here that he had some health concerns which might make it less likely that he would push for the leadership. But not sure what they are...
Someone said here he's had a heart-attack.
McDonnell, who hardly drinks and doesn’t smoke, suffered a heart attack in 2013 and was forced to take time off. His new job is hardly likely to help his blood pressure.
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
This is what makes McIRA far more dangerous than moronic Corbyn.
McDonnell is uber creepy and insincere. He lacks Jezza's charm, cant see people taking to him.
I find him the same TBH and don't think he comes across well. However, he is obviously on top of his brief which puts him ahead of many others on both sides.
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
That must be the greatest worry for the Conservatives. McDonnell is far better at politics than Corbyn, indeed he would be the best Labour leader in terms of doing politics since Blair. He plays the political game far better than most of the current crop of Conservatives and would, in a GE, run rings round the likes of Javid and Hunt.
The truth is the policies would stop him getting elected but he plays the political game well and is, I suspect, like all good politicians, absolutely ruthless.
Policies such as rail and water nationalisation? I think McD would go in with the popular stuff and build from there.
But, I do think his personal health rules him out.
Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
[...]
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.
Looks to me that the Ds are set to pick up AZ, NV and TN of those three, and TX (Texas!) is looking a lot more likely a D pickup than it should. Against that FL, IN, and ND are looking iffy, although I think the Ds will retain FL on balance. All in all I think the best the GOP can hope for is maintaining the current 51/49 balance in their favour, and a 50/50 split is probably the most likely outcome (Ds pick up AZ, NV and TN but fail to retain IN and ND). Mike Pence will be busy.
West Virginia voted for Trump by a 'uge margin, and that's up. The same is true of Montana. And Claire McCaskill looks iffy in Missouri.
If the Dems hold onto two of those three, they will have had a good night.
Simon Jenkins is making exactly the point I was making earlier today.
The really important thing to realise is that this concern about cultural issues (being able to control their community's character and pace of change, as he puts it) is not the same as xenophobia, racism or bigotry (although it can, if ignored or slighted, morph into those). It's a perfectly healthy and valid concern.
As an example, I think it would be fair to say no-one in the UK is prejudiced against Swedes. If a Swedish family moved in next door, they'd be welcome anywhere in the country.
But if in a village of 250 people, 50 Swedish families moved in over a short time, so that the whole character of the village was suddenly changed and Swedish became the first language of most children in the local school, it would be a different reaction. It's not about hostility to the incomers themselves, but about wanting to preserve the familiar character of home.
This is why things like the ludicrous attempt to stop people using completely harmless phrases such as 'whiter than white' gets people's hackles rising so much - who the hell are these people coming in to tell us that we're not allowed to use our own language?
Mr. Sandpit, I can understand them not getting the details. But this is basic, obvious stuff that can be learnt in minutes.
I'm a thousand miles away from being tech-savvy yet I (and practically everyone here) seems to have a better understanding than the politicians. It'd help if the media reported things a bit more and understood them better too. For all the media storm over the EU it was on Twitter I saw coverage of the copyright nonsense from the EU, not the broadcast media.
Vince Cable is monotonous and rambling. He is the perfect speaker to send an audience to sleep
The LDs would probably be on 15% with a different leader.
Maybe they could find someone who thinks it is immoral to be gay. That would chime well with their likely voters.
In my view, if you're going to advocate a contentious viewpoint, you need to do it wholeheartedly. Which means, they need a leader who advocates the death penalty for homosexuality.
the Guardian at least is making an effort to understand why the EUref was lost - who knows PB remainers might eventually start ( i know I know )
Why the referendum was lost has absolutely no relevance to dealing with the reality of Brexit, unless of course you hoped that it would just be treated as a protest vote to be reversed after addressing people's concerns...
What is the point of the Lib Dems? Explanation 9 is the best: “It’s basically just a drinking society for people who like politics,” someone told me. Like the Sealed Knot re-enacting battles without the danger of bloodshed, the Lib Dems re-enact politics without the danger of power. https://www.newstatesman.com/2018/09/what-point-liberal-democrats
Without the danger of bloodshed??? Have you seen how they all carry a sharp knife, for the plunging between the shoulder blades of their potential leadership rivals....
You`re getting mixed up with the Tories, Mr Mark. You spend far too long in bad company, I think, and are starting to think that everybody else behaves like they do.
UK weather STORM HELL: Storm Ali to unleash 85mph CHURNING VORTEX
A MERCILESS barrage of storms will hammer Britain this week as the nation hunkers down for ex-Hurricane Helene to unleash hell within hours and Storm Ali on Wednesday.
Potentially killer gales threaten to topple trees, knock out power supplies and hurl flying debris across swathes of the country through the next 24 hours.
Another violent cyclonic weather system will launch an even more vicious assault after Helene has finished her attack today, forecasters warn.
Only those living in a hardened bunker have a chance of survival...
Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
[...]
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.
Looks to me that the Ds are set to pick up AZ, NV and TN of those three, and TX (Texas!) is looking a lot more likely a D pickup than it should. Against that FL, IN, and ND are looking iffy, although I think the Ds will retain FL on balance. All in all I think the best the GOP can hope for is maintaining the current 51/49 balance in their favour, and a 50/50 split is probably the most likely outcome (Ds pick up AZ, NV and TN but fail to retain IN and ND). Mike Pence will be busy.
West Virginia voted for Trump by a 'uge margin, and that's up. The same is true of Montana. And Claire McCaskill looks iffy in Missouri.
If the Dems hold onto two of those three, they will have had a good night.
A lot of times incumbency trumps (see what I did there) other considerations, and appears to be working in the Dems favour in those three states. I think the Dems will retain all three. WV in particular won't even be close.
the Guardian at least is making an effort to understand why the EUref was lost - who knows PB remainers might eventually start ( i know I know )
Why the referendum was lost has absolutely no relevance to dealing with the reality of Brexit, unless of course you hoped that it would just be treated as a protest vote to be reversed after addressing people's concerns...
those caterwauling for a second referendum might find it very relevant
Not much sign of Brexit or the Tories addressing those issues though is there?
Brexit is a solution looking for a problem.
Apart from a few places in the Fens with recent EU migration, there was an inverse relationship of percentage of the population born abroad and voting Leave. Many of the strongest Leave voting areas in the old coalfields of Wales or the NE have had nearly no inward migration.
Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
[...]
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.
Looks to me that the Ds are set to pick up AZ, NV and TN of those three, and TX (Texas!) is looking a lot more likely a D pickup than it should. Against that FL, IN, and ND are looking iffy, although I think the Ds will retain FL on balance. All in all I think the best the GOP can hope for is maintaining the current 51/49 balance in their favour, and a 50/50 split is probably the most likely outcome (Ds pick up AZ, NV and TN but fail to retain IN and ND). Mike Pence will be busy.
West Virginia voted for Trump by a 'uge margin, and that's up. The same is true of Montana. And Claire McCaskill looks iffy in Missouri.
If the Dems hold onto two of those three, they will have had a good night.
A lot of times incumbency trumps (see what I did there) other considerations, and appears to be working in the Dems favour in those three states. I think the Dems will retain all three. WV in particular won't even be close.
What has happened in those three States (and North Dakota and Indiana) is they've shifted Red at a very rapid rate. That doesn't mean they can't be held, but it does make it much harder than previously. People have become so much more partisan.
Things you never expected to read in The Spectator:
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
This is what makes McIRA far more dangerous than moronic Corbyn.
McDonnell is uber creepy and insincere. He lacks Jezza's charm, cant see people taking to him.
I find him the same TBH and don't think he comes across well. However, he is obviously on top of his brief which puts him ahead of many others on both sides.
When you think about all the ways totalitarian governments have began and thengone wrong, and their willingness to do anything to achieve their aims. Whtether it’s breaking eggs to create an omelette, re-education camps, mass executions, means justify the ends. They all need people who will do anyntung, say anything, and carry out any act that they think will further their cause. John Mcdonell. He is ta dangerous demagogue who will if given the opportunity do whatever it takes, whatever the cost.
Not much sign of Brexit or the Tories addressing those issues though is there?
Brexit is a solution looking for a problem.
Apart from a few places in the Fens with recent EU migration, there was an inverse relationship of percentage of the population born abroad and voting Leave. Many of the strongest Leave voting areas in the old coalfields of Wales or the NE have had nearly no inward migration.
the Tories are no closer to addressing the issues than Labour as seen in GE 2017
However in pursuing Brexit they are at least putting themselves in a position where they have more freedom to do so
Not much sign of Brexit or the Tories addressing those issues though is there?
Brexit is a solution looking for a problem.
Apart from a few places in the Fens with recent EU migration, there was an inverse relationship of percentage of the population born abroad and voting Leave. Many of the strongest Leave voting areas in the old coalfields of Wales or the NE have had nearly no inward migration.
Is that supposed to make it invalid as an issue for them?
Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
[...]
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.
Looks to me that the Ds are set to pick up AZ, NV and TN of those three, and TX (Texas!) is looking a lot more likely a D pickup than it should. Against that FL, IN, and ND are looking iffy, although I think the Ds will retain FL on balance. All in all I think the best the GOP can hope for is maintaining the current 51/49 balance in their favour, and a 50/50 split is probably the most likely outcome (Ds pick up AZ, NV and TN but fail to retain IN and ND). Mike Pence will be busy.
West Virginia voted for Trump by a 'uge margin, and that's up. The same is true of Montana. And Claire McCaskill looks iffy in Missouri.
If the Dems hold onto two of those three, they will have had a good night.
A lot of times incumbency trumps (see what I did there) other considerations, and appears to be working in the Dems favour in those three states. I think the Dems will retain all three. WV in particular won't even be close.
What has happened in those three States (and North Dakota and Indiana) is they've shifted Red at a very rapid rate. That doesn't mean they can't be held, but it does make it much harder than previously. People have become so much more partisan.
Here's the issue though Sean. In the last 5 'Wave Elections' (1994, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2014), there have been 54 incumbent senators on the right side of the wave, all 54 have won election. In fact I think you'd have to go back to 1982 when Howard Cannon was defeated in Nevada to find an incumbent senator who wasn't re-elected in a wave year for their party. So basically 36 years of history say the Dems will hold their incumbent seats.
Off Topic - Thoughts on the US Midterm Senate elections.
[...]
So the Dems need to pick up 2 out of 4 in NV, AZ, TN, TX, while hold the rest of their seats. Personally I wouldn't bet against that happening and would at least rate it a 50/50 chance.
Looks to me that the Ds are set to pick up AZ, NV and TN of those three, and TX (Texas!) is looking a lot more likely a D pickup than it should. Against that FL, IN, and ND are looking iffy, although I think the Ds will retain FL on balance. All in all I think the best the GOP can hope for is maintaining the current 51/49 balance in their favour, and a 50/50 split is probably the most likely outcome (Ds pick up AZ, NV and TN but fail to retain IN and ND). Mike Pence will be busy.
West Virginia voted for Trump by a 'uge margin, and that's up. The same is true of Montana. And Claire McCaskill looks iffy in Missouri.
If the Dems hold onto two of those three, they will have had a good night.
The key question may be the extent to which traditional Republican voters see President Trump as sui generis. Will they say to themselves, President Trump clearly does not believe in small government, balanced budgets, free trade, or any other proclaimed GOP values, so I must abstain or vote for someone else, or will they say, President Trump is a moron but is not connected to that fine, upstanding Republican Senator Rebecca Mainstream so I can vote for her?
Not much sign of Brexit or the Tories addressing those issues though is there?
Brexit is a solution looking for a problem.
Apart from a few places in the Fens with recent EU migration, there was an inverse relationship of percentage of the population born abroad and voting Leave. Many of the strongest Leave voting areas in the old coalfields of Wales or the NE have had nearly no inward migration.
Is that supposed to make it invalid as an issue for them?
No. But crudely linking voting Leave to changing demographics does not explain that much of Leaverland has had little or no inward migration.
That is not a co incidence, migrants tend to go where economic opportunity lies, not to places "left behind" such as the Walsall of the article. I lived in Walsall for six months in the eighties, it was pretty grim then too.
Comments
https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/1042053902219264002
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/18/labour-figures-set-plan-restrict-tom-watsons-power-jeremy-corbyn/
And what are the moderates going to do about this "Bolshevik" plot...absolutely sweet FA.
An easy mistake.
If those were independent events each with a 75% chance of coming good for them, that just pips a 50% probability overall (52.56% according to my calculations). OK, they are not independent, but the nationwide swing to the Dems is already in the pundits' subjective assessments and state-wide polling, so I think you are overstating it. Nate Silver's current statistical model shows a 32.5% chance, which looks realistic to me.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1042057197461676032
*wanders off whistling The Red Flag whilst imitating Citizen Smith*
https://twitter.com/lahoare/status/1042058120162357249
The financial crisis in local Government gets closer to home for Messrs Hammond, Hunt and Gove (among others):
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-45552324
Hard to argue with that
Their lack of impact has been compounded by their lacklustre new leadership team.
Plus they are not without internal issues that are causing them to look inwards - such as Trans rights, not paying both joint leaders equally and their own antisemitic fringe.
Caroline Lucas alternating between being angry and being earnest is hardly reason to switch to them at the moment.
And what do those idiots know?
Amazingly, he wouldn't be my best result in this particular market, or even in my top three.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavarian_state_election,_2018
Regardless of staying in or leaving the EU, it's bloody alarming.
Not that UK politics is immune to that. Both May and Cooper (and Rudd, when she was in Cabinet) have displayed a weird belief that algorithms can use magic to make the interweb safe for everyone. And the less said about the cretinous attempt to ban encryption the better.
"How John McDonnell wooed Mumsnet
James Kirkup
As so often these days, if you want real political insight, go to Mumsnet. In a web chat there today, John McDonnell has offered extensive proof that – whatever you think of his politics and policies – he is an extremely professional and skilful political communicator."
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/how-john-mcdonnell-wooed-mumsnet/
But I've noticed the latest madness from the EU with Articles 11 and 13 has even upset quite a few young (former?) Remainers so every cloud and all that...
The truth is the policies would stop him getting elected but he plays the political game well and is, I suspect, like all good politicians, absolutely ruthless.
Politicians thinking that they can somehow ban mathematics was probably the new low among many recent stories.
The FDP and Linke hovering around the 5% mark is the most important stat however, them achieving or not achieving that figure will make a big difference to what kind of coalition emerges.
The Bavarians aren't used to coalitions...
https://www.albin-michel.fr/ouvrages/le-brexit-va-reussir-9782226402219
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/sep/15/john-mcdonnell-unreconstructed-on-the-left-but-with-allies-on-the-right
https://twitter.com/epkaufm/status/1042008178475642885
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/09/trump-toad-penis-stormy-daniels-response-likely-forthcoming.html?
But, I do think his personal health rules him out.
If the Dems hold onto two of those three, they will have had a good night.
The really important thing to realise is that this concern about cultural issues (being able to control their community's character and pace of change, as he puts it) is not the same as xenophobia, racism or bigotry (although it can, if ignored or slighted, morph into those). It's a perfectly healthy and valid concern.
As an example, I think it would be fair to say no-one in the UK is prejudiced against Swedes. If a Swedish family moved in next door, they'd be welcome anywhere in the country.
But if in a village of 250 people, 50 Swedish families moved in over a short time, so that the whole character of the village was suddenly changed and Swedish became the first language of most children in the local school, it would be a different reaction. It's not about hostility to the incomers themselves, but about wanting to preserve the familiar character of home.
This is why things like the ludicrous attempt to stop people using completely harmless phrases such as 'whiter than white' gets people's hackles rising so much - who the hell are these people coming in to tell us that we're not allowed to use our own language?
I'm a thousand miles away from being tech-savvy yet I (and practically everyone here) seems to have a better understanding than the politicians. It'd help if the media reported things a bit more and understood them better too. For all the media storm over the EU it was on Twitter I saw coverage of the copyright nonsense from the EU, not the broadcast media.
I always enjoy John Harris who actually leaves London and goes see for himself
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/sep/17/britains-insecure-towns-left-behind
https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1019090/UK-weather-latest-news-storm-forecast-September-weather-2018
UK weather STORM HELL: Storm Ali to unleash 85mph CHURNING VORTEX
A MERCILESS barrage of storms will hammer Britain this week as the nation hunkers down for ex-Hurricane Helene to unleash hell within hours and Storm Ali on Wednesday.
Potentially killer gales threaten to topple trees, knock out power supplies and hurl flying debris across swathes of the country through the next 24 hours.
Another violent cyclonic weather system will launch an even more vicious assault after Helene has finished her attack today, forecasters warn.
Only those living in a hardened bunker have a chance of survival...
Brexit is a solution looking for a problem.
Apart from a few places in the Fens with recent EU migration, there was an inverse relationship of percentage of the population born abroad and voting Leave. Many of the strongest Leave voting areas in the old coalfields of Wales or the NE have had nearly no inward migration.
John Mcdonell. He is ta dangerous demagogue who will if given the opportunity do whatever it takes, whatever the cost.
However in pursuing Brexit they are at least putting themselves in a position where they have more freedom to do so
NEW THREAD
That is not a co incidence, migrants tend to go where economic opportunity lies, not to places "left behind" such as the Walsall of the article. I lived in Walsall for six months in the eighties, it was pretty grim then too.