politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015

CarlottaVance said:

As Mr Glenn (usually) says 'the trend is your friend':

https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1041753409752313856

Danny565 said:

CarlottaVance said:

As Mr Glenn (usually) says 'the trend is your friend':

https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1041753409752313856

IMO, people (including I suspect quite a lot of people who voted Remain last time) are not going to believe the forecasts of food shortages and planes being grounded etcetc. until they see them happen with their own eyes

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

1st to welcome the return of OGH!

Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form

Danny565 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Danny565 said:

CarlottaVance said:

As Mr Glenn (usually) says 'the trend is your friend':

https://twitter.com/whatukthinks/status/1041753409752313856

IMO, people (including I suspect quite a lot of people who voted Remain last time) are not going to believe the forecasts of food shortages and planes being grounded etcetc. until they see them happen with their own eyes

And then many of them will blame the EU.....making rejoining a tough sell

That's where I completely disagree. If planes are grounded, and types of food run out, people aren't going to care about blame games, they are just going to want 'normal service resumed', and it won't be hard to figure out what could've disrupted that normal service.

Whether those consequences actually occur in the first place is a very different question.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/MatthewOToole2/status/1041741029748236289

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

1st to welcome the return of OGH!

Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Ishmael_Z said:

1st to welcome the return of OGH!

Welcome back OGH - hope you had an enjoyable time!

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mrs May on Panorama:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcone

Wake me up if she says anything vaguely interesting...

ExiledInScotland said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

Mrs May on Panorama:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcone

Wake me up if she says anything vaguely interesting...

It feels like a less funny remake of The Office

Danny565 said:

Highlight so far is Dominic Raab doing a sassy finger-wag with the words "I've got no time for that drama".

LordOfReason said:

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

1st to welcome the return of OGH!

Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form

Unfortunately a strange bit of science occurs, when wine is taken from under the blue skies of its birth, across the English Channel, to a cloudier climate. It never tastes the same as it did on holiday.

Casino_Royale said:

To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

Casino_Royale said:

To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

stodge said:

Casino_Royale said:

To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

I thought the idea was for Governments to stand on their record and it's not unreasonable for me, as a voter, to ask what the Conservatives have achieved since 2010.

Glen O'Hara was fairly scatching this morning and for all the "attractive offer" nonsense it's going to take more than that to convince those of us whose economic prospects have stagnated in the past decade or so to put our X in the blue team box again.

stodge said:

Casino_Royale said:

stodge said:

Casino_Royale said:

To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

I thought the idea was for Governments to stand on their record and it's not unreasonable for me, as a voter, to ask what the Conservatives have achieved since 2010.

Glen O'Hara was fairly scatching this morning and for all the "attractive offer" nonsense it's going to take more than that to convince those of us whose economic prospects have stagnated in the past decade or so to put our X in the blue team box again.

Have you ever voted Conservative?

No and I've never voted Labour either. Doesn't mean I don't have the right to scrutinise or ask questions or challenge the Government's performance.

stodge said:

Casino_Royale said:

To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

I thought the idea was for Governments to stand on their record and it's not unreasonable for me, as a voter, to ask what the Conservatives have achieved since 2010.

Glen O'Hara was fairly scatching this morning and for all the "attractive offer" nonsense it's going to take more than that to convince those of us whose economic prospects have stagnated in the past decade or so to put our X in the blue team box again.

In any case, I thought the message to the "oldies" was going to be "vote Conservative or Jeremy Corbyn will eat your grandchildren."

JosiasJessop said:

LordOfReason said:

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

1st to welcome the return of OGH!

Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form

Unfortunately a strange bit of science occurs, when wine is taken from under the blue skies of its birth, across the English Channel, to a cloudier climate. It never tastes the same as it did on holiday.

I would be willing to undertake research into this very interesting and vital area of chemistry.

Nigelb said:

JosiasJessop said:

LordOfReason said:

MikeSmithson said:

Ishmael_Z said:

1st to welcome the return of OGH!

Not quite back home after a 2000 mile trip by car from French Catalonia. We are at Calais waiting to be repatriated tomorrow.

Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.

Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form

Unfortunately a strange bit of science occurs, when wine is taken from under the blue skies of its birth, across the English Channel, to a cloudier climate. It never tastes the same as it did on holiday.

I would be willing to undertake research into this very interesting and vital area of chemistry.

I’m unconvinced by that theory.
As a control experiment (after all, wines can vary dramatically from bottle to bottle), I conducted a similar experiment with the industrially consistent Pernod.

A drink which tastes marvellous in France, and dreadful in England actually proved entirely palatable at home this summer. I concluded it’s all a matter of the sun shining long enough.
A minor, but significant consolation of global warming.

Casino_Royale said:

Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?

That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

I don’t expect you to agree.

You answered my question differently....do you think the way the Tories have governed and behaved these last two years..they deserve to be reelected? Forget the ideological stuff..just concentrate on the management.

I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...

stodge said:

Casino_Royale said:

Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.

Casino_Royale said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?

That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

I don’t expect you to agree.

You answered my question differently....do you think the way the Tories have governed and behaved these last two years..they deserve to be reelected? Forget the ideological stuff..just concentrate on the management.

I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...

Yes.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1041787257974337538

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

tyson said:

Casino_Royale said:

To win in GE2022 the Conservatives should be ‘steady as she goes’ with the oldies, whilst pitching an attractive offer to 35-50 year olds.

Do you think the Tories deserve to win 2022?

That’s not the question, I was commenting on the electoral strategy I’d recommend but, for what it’s worth, yes: despite the Brexit dramas the country is in a much better state than it was in 2010 and I think the Conservatives would build on that best in the 2020s with a balanced approach to public spending that grew wealth and prosperity whilst investing sustainably in public services.

I don’t expect you to agree.

You answered my question differently....do you think the way the Tories have governed and behaved these last two years..they deserve to be reelected? Forget the ideological stuff..just concentrate on the management.

I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...

Yes.

So, it appears you are an ideological bonehead with zilch capacity to think laterally...so I'm not going to spend any more time on this debate....

Casino_Royale said:

You are arguing against a straw man.

I’ve not asked you to give the Government a free pass, nor would I ever do so.

CarlottaVance said:

Complaint against Musk:

https://www.scribd.com/document/388811025/2018-09-17-Complaint-for-Defamation-Stamped-Filed-Copy-Unsworth-v-Musk#download&from_embed

Unsworth will also sue in London

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

Foxy said:

notme said:

stodge said:

Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.

I think that whether you live in the SE of England, or a similar microgeography affects perceptions. For much of the remainder of the country it has been a decade of stagnation at best, with continued erosion of wages. London and the SE struggle with some of the problems of wealth, such as the cost of housing, but for much of the rest that is a taste of honey that they will never get. Just grinding austerity and the feeling of being left behind. Brexit is a symptom, not the cure of such ills.

I'd say it is much more mixed up.

There's a lot of poverty in London and parts of the SE with collapsing levels of home ownership and what I term middle class regression.

But equally lots of people are doing very nicely in what are thought of as deprived areas.

In many ways its easier to be rich in a poor town than in a rich town and likewise easier to be poor in a rich town than a poor town.

Relative contrasts matter both financially and psychologically.

It is a simplification of couse, but the interesting JRT analysis of Brexit showed that those stuck in the middle in different areas were affected by their peers. Those in prosperous parts were more likely to vote Remain, while the same profile in less prosperous parts were inclined to Leave. People are affected by their environment, so a secretary in Hartlepool would vote differently to one in Cambridge.

oxfordsimon said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

UBS 'rogue trader' gets last-minute reprieve from deportation

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/17/uk-deportation-ubs-kweku-adoboli-ghana

It is not a reprieve - more a temporary stay of execution.

He seriously broke the law. He has not legal status within the UK. Why should the courts look at this yet again? Nothing to do with the colour of his skin or his country of origin - and everything to do with applying the law.

Foxy said:

notme said:

Foxy said:

notme said:

stodge said:

Casino_Royale said:

Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.

I think actually people aren

I think that whether you live in the SE of England, or a similar microgeography affects perceptions. For much of the remainder of the country it has been a decade of stagnation at best, with continued erosion of wages. London and the SE struggle with some of the problems of wealth, such as the cost of housing, but for much of the rest that is a taste of honey that they will never get. Just grinding austerity and the feeling of being left behind. Brexit is a symptom, not the cure of such ills.

Grinding austerity? You are having a laugh. George Osborne made a virtue out of it, but the reality was only the police and local government suffered any. The nhs continued to have its mouth shoved with gold, to the detriment of everything else. Austerity just meant getting spending back the percentages before the crash and before the ‘temporary stimulus’.

Grinding austerity is a tag line foe some ken loach nonsense. Not someone who should know better.

My NHS pay has shrunk in real terms by 20% over the decade, though some staff groups have done slightly better at only half that paycut. This year was another 2% real terms cut. Capital spending has been frozen.

But sure, tell people that we've been stuffed with gold.

welshowl said:

Foxy said:

notme said:

Foxy said:

notme said:

stodge said:

Casino_Royale said:

Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.

I think actually people aren

I think that whether you live in the SE of England

Grinding austerity? You are having a laugh. George Osborne made a virtue out of it, but the reality was only the police and local government suffered any. The nhs continued to have its mouth shoved with gold, to the detriment of everything else. Austerity just meant getting spending back the percentages before the crash and before the ‘temporary stimulus’.

Grinding austerity is a tag line foe some ken loach nonsense. Not someone who should know better.

My NHS pay has shrunk in real terms by 20% over the decade, though some staff groups have done slightly better at only half that paycut. This year was another 2% real terms cut. Capital spending has been frozen.

But sure, tell people that we've been stuffed with gold.

You haven’t, sure. But your pensions have been protected by the tax payer, whilst the rest of us have seen the sums we need for our old age multiply as interest rates have gone subterranean.

Foxy said:

welshowl said:

Foxy said:

notme said:

Foxy said:

notme said:

stodge said:

Casino_Royale said:

Of course not, but you referred to putting an X in the blue team box in the second team plural.

I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.

Let's try it the other way, do you think the years since 2010 have been good ones for this country and all its citizens? Yes, some have done well, you personally may have done well, good luck to you.

I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.

Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.

I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.

I think actually people aren

I think that whether you live in the SE of England

Grinding austerity? You are having a laugh. George Osborne made a virtue out of it, but the reality was only the police and local government suffered any. The nhs continued to have its mouth shoved with gold, to the detriment of everything else. Austerity just meant getting spending back the percentages before the crash and before the ‘temporary stimulus’.

Grinding austerity is a tag line foe some ken loach nonsense. Not someone who should know better.

My NHS pay has shrunk in real terms by 20% over the decade, though some staff groups have done slightly better at only half that paycut. This year was another 2% real terms cut. Capital spending has been frozen.

But sure, tell people that we've been stuffed with gold.

You haven’t, sure. But your pensions have been protected by the tax payer, whilst the rest of us have seen the sums we need for our old age multiply as interest rates have gone subterranean.

Yep, and I plan to take that pension next year and run.

But I see you agree that many others have been squeezed too.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/1041795137465143297?s=21

notme said:

GIN1138 said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/mshelicat/status/1041795137465143297?s=21

EU wants us to "stare into the abyss" and then we'll blink.

Seems a dangerous assumption to me...

Wont be the first time...

Freggles said:

welshowl said:

You haven’t, sure. But your pensions have been protected by the tax payer, whilst the rest of us have seen the sums we need for our old age multiply as interest rates have gone subterranean.

http://www.nhsemployers.org/your-workforce/pay-and-reward/pensions/new-2015-scheme

oxfordsimon said:

Alistair said:

The SCOTUS nomination is turning into a car crash for the Republicans. Hot on the heels of the attempted rape claim comes more whispers about what did Kavanaugh know about disgraced judge Alex Kozinski's behaviour when he clerked for him?

The attempted rape claim needs to be properly tested before it can be allowed to become a received fact. There are significant differences between the various versions of events described by the complainant. She is not even that certain as to which year it happened.

By holding this back until the very end of the process, the Democrats have made it very difficult for Kavanaugh to get an opportunity to challenge these serious accusations.

Which is probably why they acted in the way they did.

If he did it - then he should suffer accordingly. But trial by Democrat leaks is not fair for anyone. Not on Kavanaugh and not on the woman making the claims.

As for whispers about other things - they should be on the record or ignored. Gossip is not evidence of anything.

welshowl said:

Freggles said:

welshowl said:

You haven’t, sure. But your pensions have been protected by the tax payer, whilst the rest of us have seen the sums we need for our old age multiply as interest rates have gone subterranean.

http://www.nhsemployers.org/your-workforce/pay-and-reward/pensions/new-2015-scheme

El Dorado compared to anyone in the private sector.