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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels
Unlike Alastair Meeks on the previous thread I am far less certain that Labour, certainly under Corbyn, have a good chance of winning most seats, let alone getting a majority at the next election.
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The people endlessly banging on about a "people's vote" would be better off keeping their powder dry for now, and then, if a No Deal or Rock-Hard Brexit does trigger some of the dire consequences that have been talked out, then campaign for an immediate Rejoin referendum, before any long-lasting damage to the economy is done. IMO, people (including I suspect quite a lot of people who voted Remain last time) are not going to believe the forecasts of food shortages and planes being grounded etcetc. until they see them happen with their own eyes
Big impression is that the Euro-Pound exchange rate has not been too bad. France more affordable than we expected.
Even with Brexit we have made a big contribution to the well-being of French agricultural workers buying much of their produce - the sort that is easily transportable in liquid form
Whether those consequences actually occur in the first place is a very different question.
If planes are grounded indefinitely . . . then people would want normal service but that's not going to happen.
He's just acting as if the DUP veto in December and subsequent changes to the agreement never happened now and people in the UK are letting him get away with it.
Very wise.
They can speak again when they have come up with a plan for Brexit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcone
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/sep/17/uk-deportation-ubs-kweku-adoboli-ghana
The flaws in the plan were spotted here immediately of course!
The most illuminating thing is the claim there are still Brexit true believers in the Cabinet. And why is Gove the only member of that Cabinet included besides Raab who is willing or chosen to try to bolster the case in the program?
Keir Starmer talking about how no deal cannot be allowed to happen. But then says he would be willing to risk that, since a potential no deal is the only situation where a potential referendum or (not mentioned)a new GE might emerge. He doesn't want no deal, but that's not the same as ensuring it cannot be allowed to happen, if that requires him to back the government, since there's nothing that could make him vote for any May deal.
Glen O'Hara was fairly scatching this morning and for all the "attractive offer" nonsense it's going to take more than that to convince those of us whose economic prospects have stagnated in the past decade or so to put our X in the blue team box again.
In any case, I thought the message to the "oldies" was going to be "vote Conservative or Jeremy Corbyn will eat your grandchildren."
There is no EEA option for the UK. We have to apply to EFTA first.
I don’t expect you to agree.
I wondered because you seem to have a hair-trigger temper whenever it comes to anyone mentioning the Conservative Government’s record in anything like a positive light, so I wondered if it had badly let you down in the past when you’d placed your trust in it.
He seriously broke the law. He has not legal status within the UK. Why should the courts look at this yet again? Nothing to do with the colour of his skin or his country of origin - and everything to do with applying the law.
However it is Labour 1997 to 2005 and Tory 2010 to 2017 and LD 2010, Tory 2015 and 2017 and UKIP 2015 and Tory 2017 and Tory 2010 and 2015 and Labour or LD 2017 voters who will decide if the Tories get their second 4th term in office in a century. If you do not fall into those categories you are not likely to be of much concern to party strategists
I can remember the Brown years, and the Major years, and now we have the May years...hopelessly divided parties led by weak leaders presiding on infighting and intrigue...
As a control experiment (after all, wines can vary dramatically from bottle to bottle), I conducted a similar experiment with the industrially consistent Pernod.
A drink which tastes marvellous in France, and dreadful in England actually proved entirely palatable at home this summer. I concluded it’s all a matter of the sun shining long enough.
A minor, but significant consolation of global warming.
I see a lot that isn't right or positive whether it be well-run local authorities being forced to cut services because this Government is unable or unwilling to help them. I also see too many people, especially in London, struggling to survive, people who have to work long hours often in more than one job to pay for the basics of life.
Do I think Labour could do any better? No and I criticised them on here aplenty in the Blair and Brown years.
I'm not prepared to give any Government a free pass - I have a right to criticise, to question and to offer alternatives, that's called democracy last time I looked.
England didn't deserve to win but Columbia deserved to lose.
Put the political party to the football team as you chose.
By contrast in the Belgium vs Japan game Belgium deserved to win but Japan didn't deserve to lose.
Sadly not much chance of British politics being like that in the foreseeable future.
Putting that to one side, it isn't just about people having jobs - we can employ people to dig holes and fill them in again. The issue is productivity - there are more of us doing about the same - what about improving in business processes and investing in technology? It may be cheaper to employ people when there is an unending supply of cheap labour but that isn't what leads to real economic growth and progress.
As for the deficit, fantastic, yet when well-run Conservative councils such as Somerset, Surrey and East Sussex are staring into the financial abyss and being forced to cut services to the bone, why should I cheer a fall in the deficit? Why isn't Hammond throwing millions at Councils to help them instead of sub-contracting austerity?
I’ve not asked you to give the Government a free pass, nor would I ever do so.
https://www.scribd.com/document/388811025/2018-09-17-Complaint-for-Defamation-Stamped-Filed-Copy-Unsworth-v-Musk#download&from_embed
Unsworth will also sue in London
There's a lot of poverty in London and parts of the SE with collapsing levels of home ownership and what I term middle class regression.
But equally lots of people are doing very nicely in what are thought of as deprived areas.
In many ways its easier to be rich in a poor town than in a rich town and likewise easier to be poor in a rich town than a poor town.
Relative contrasts matter both financially and psychologically.
Your personal insults and flounce off show you don’t actually have any arguments.
An unstable "half in/half out" situation that people think could collapse at any moment will be worse in the long term than a so called "no deal" IMO.
I will cheerfully concede you have done so in the past - others haven't. I've been openly critical of the LDs on many occasions and will continue to be so as I would be of Labour, Greens, the SNP, PC, UKIP, DUP etc, et
Grinding austerity is a tag line foe some ken loach nonsense. Not someone who should know better.
Wrong. It doesn’t matter a blind fig if you can can register for unemployment benefit or not. That’s the measure of the claimant count. Not the unemployment figures. They are conducted as a labour force study using exactly the same process as every other Eu state.
At least with no deal, we have to confront certainties.
@EuropeElects
12m12 minutes ago
UK, Kantar poll:
CON-ECR: 40%
LAB-S&D: 35% (-4)
LDEM-ALDE: 10% (+1)
UKIP-EFDD: 5% (+1)
SNP-G/EFA: 4%
GREENS-G/EFA: 4%
PC-G/EFA: 0% (-1)
Field work: 6/09/18 – 10/09/18
Sample size: 1,119"
I was involved in this case from the day it started until it ended. He was not scapegoated, as he claims. He was rightly convicted and was lucky, as the Court of Appeal pointed out, not to have received the maximum sentence for fraud.
He has been peddling bullshit ever since his release.
Adoboli deserves everything he got and is now getting. He has not admitted his faults. He has not apologised to the many people he wronged and whose lives he ruined. He still does not think that what he did was a crime. He has not been changing banking culture. There are plenty of others who have done and are still doing more than him to understand what went wrong and what needs putting right in the finance sector, people with real insight and an understanding of the difference between right and wrong, neither if which he has.
He is - and always has been - a liar and a bullshitter whose only skill is to play the victim, rather than accept responsibility, and manipulate others into believing his act. It’s what led him into trouble in the first place and that MPs and others are being duped as others have been duped by him in the past is utterly depressing and demoralising for those of us who know the reality and have had to clean up the mess made by him and others like him.
He has wealthy family in Ghana who are well able to look after him.
This judicial review is utterly misconceived.
Aaaaargh.....!
But sure, tell people that we've been stuffed with gold.
But I see you agree that many others have been squeezed too.
I work for a London local authority, in finance, not at a vastly senior level, but with a level of experience that (especially given the turnover in recent years) means that i probably know more about how the place works than almost anyone else. My cost to the the tax payer (inclusive of oncosts - 'gold plated' pension, "generous" holidays etc etc) is probably around £250 a day. A generic interim replacement at my level, at current market rates would cost potentially north of £450 a day. And that's a generic replacement - anyone who works in a local authority knows that (outside of a few very specific areas) there is no such thing as a generic replacement - experience and inside knowledge is irreplaceable. How is it remotely possible to close that gap? Who's going to want to take a permanent role with generous holidays when you can work as an interim for the same salary and take 1/3 of the year off? When you can create your own gold plated pension all by yourself?
Once the public sector could rely on an element of "public sector ethos" and general goodwill from staff. These days when conditions are being regularly downgraded by benchmarking to the lowest common private sector comparator, when "job security" is only guaranteed by the pace of people fleeing exceeding the pace of cuts, this is increasingly a fantasy. The only reason people don't leave is because of inertia. Or because they are too close to retirement. But there is no new generation coming through. And none that will commit to the long term.
That said, pensions are huge. A million quid buys you 28.5k index linked at 65 with 50% on death for the spouse ( ie public sector more or less).
“Pay” must be seen in the round.
We need to be rolling these kind of cuts across the board. Nhs and education behave as if they’ve undergone some kind of austerity. Utter bolderdash. Gvt should have had the guts to do the same. People think they have anyway.
By holding this back until the very end of the process, the Democrats have made it very difficult for Kavanaugh to get an opportunity to challenge these serious accusations.
Which is probably why they acted in the way they did.
If he did it - then he should suffer accordingly. But trial by Democrat leaks is not fair for anyone. Not on Kavanaugh and not on the woman making the claims.
As for whispers about other things - they should be on the record or ignored. Gossip is not evidence of anything.
Seems a dangerous assumption to me...
Because it’s not going to work.