politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next gene
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next general election
Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next election and this is a market I’m going to avoid for the time being for the following known unknowns
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Personally I like the 20% - 30% band, even with a new party there is a still a lot of value in the brand, in 1983 they still got 27%, for me that's a support level that's hard to dip under.
I can get 6/1 on Brendon Hartley scoring points in the Singapore demolition derby Grand Prix and it’ll pay out today.
https://twitter.com/DeclanTaylor87/status/1041181146300604416
Interesting thought, though I'd be irked if they did split and Labour got 21%.
F1: will peruse the markets fairly soon. Hopefully more of them will have gone up.
Since we don't know what the 1997 Tory vote will be doing it's impossible to guess if say 39% will be enough to win.
Bit rubbish.
Would he kick out Thornberry to take the combined seat? Would he get another elsewhere as part of the mandatory reselections the Mad Mul...er, Chris Williamson is so forcefully pushing? Or would he take the opportunity to retire gracefully and let someone else have a go?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Underwater_and_Marine_Agency#The_fictional_NUMA
'Numa' will always mean Dirk Pitt and Al Giordino to me, along with a sprinkling of Admiral James Sandecker.
I'll get my coat.
Numa was the second king of Rome, and wasn't even in Rome when others decided he should succeed Romulus. He put into place, I think, lots of the long term institutions and laws that served the early republic well. (Although some suggest it was his 'friends' who helpfully suggested making him king).
Detective Chief Superintendent Lesley Boal has been drafted in to spearhead the probe, with unprecedented senior resources at her disposal for such an inquiry. As the Head of Public Protection for Scotland, Boal is one of the most highly regarded officers on the force.
It emerged yesterday that Police Scotland had stepped up its operation, with a full blown investigation now underway. And the Sunday Mail has learned Boal will be given “every resource necessary”, with up to four detective chief inspectors at her disposal.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/alex-salmond-sex-claims-handled-13253766
So much so, it's possible to write a 'Clive Cussler plot generator."
*) Pick an historical event at a dramatic moment as a prologue.
*) In the modern day, place a professional woman (e.g. UN diplomat) in peril.
*) Dirk Pitt just so happens to be in the area to rescue her.
*) The peril the woman faced is from a shadowy group that has connections with the historical event first described.
*) A threat develops, involving the shadowy group and the historical event.
So, for instance, you might have a prologue about the eruption of Vesuvius.
In modern-day Australia, a beautiful, intelligent archaeologist is attacked by armed men whilst travelling to a conference. Dirk Pitt, who just so happened to be in the area to test his submersible, sees the attack and breaks it up. Meanwhile, a volcanic eruption in Indonesia appears to have been caused by strange tremors from a nearby mining rig ...
The books got a little boring and samey after a while, but they sold well. The later co-written ones are a bit pants.
Mr. Jessop, must admit, some of the Sir Edric stories can be a little too similar (in my defence, a big journey for reason X is in a lot of fantasy). Tried fiddling with it a bit this time around, without taking the Kingdom route of setting it in one city with several trips outside for invasions etc.
Maclean and Fleming both experimented with their writing styles (e.g. The Last Frontier and The Spy Who Loved Me) and these were very badly received. So you can't blame them for keeping with what works.
In Sir Edric's Kingdom, he gets lumbered as a sort of regent because the king's very sick, so he (mostly) has to stay in the capital. I do have vague ideas of a sort-of single location story where he's trapped in a labyrinth or such.
I like the idea of some sort of diplomatic shenanigans in a closed location (summit in a castle) but it's tricky building a comedic plot around that.
Anyway, nearly finished the first draft of the work in progress, so something to consider a bit later on.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45535490
Maybe she'll go back to Canterbury? She fought that in 2001 and came close to winning it, and it doesn't look as though Duffield will be standing again.
But Corbyn at over 70 would really be the obvious one to make way.
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/arts-entertainment/things-theyre-going-to-bollocks-up-in-star-wars-episode-ix-20180830176816
It may well depend on when the election happens, but if 2022 would be a good time to bow out gracefully. after 7 years at the top most party leaders run out of steam and energy.
Annoyingly the support races are not televised here, so there’s no live coverage from the track until the drivers’ parade at 11:30 UK time.
FWIW I expect Labour to fall back a bit the next time out, especially if they are still led by Corbyn. I would have liked a 30-35% range.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-45535490
Yes the draw very nearly came in. Fantastic fight I actually thought GGG might have edged it in the later rounds.
But it sort of went as expected. Canelo not (as) afraid and GGG tiring and showing his (grand old) age.
https://twitter.com/tradegovuk/status/1040903048892018688
At least in their political division.
This is the first year since 2013, I think, we haven't had either.
Why are people so convinced Corbyn will retire? This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the hard left to secure long term control of Labour.
If he is called to serve then he will serve the cause.
He will only go willingly once (a) the constitutional structure is changed (b) the parliamentary party has been reconstituted and (c) he can guarantee the movement can choose their own successor.
@SeanT once wrote about a bug that paralyses its prey. That’s a good metaphor here - it looks like Labour, but it’s no longer Labour as we knew it. The sooner that the good lefties such as @RochdalePioneers realised that then the sooner we can build a healthy left party. Frankly I’d donate to that organisation even though I’d have no desire to see it elected.
Selective blindness and vacillation is the order of the day in Labour.
Or you can do something different.
the idea that Corbyn is suddenly going to become a different man, driven by different instincts, is equally misplaced. He is who he is. At a certain point, service becomes acquiescence.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/alex-massie-there-isnt-a-better-jeremy-corbyn-out-there-qbs539hcn
It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief
A lot of the hard lefts grip on Labour is invested in Jezza as an individual, with his marmite-like qualities, I think it far from clear that a fellow traveller would get similar support.
I commented the other night about how I dislike charismatic politicians, who all too often lack the substance needed for effective party management. I would class Jezza with these. Charisma certainly helps with campaigning though. You have to give a fairly cynical populace something to believe in.
Weirdly, and annoyingly, slow, though.
Seems a lot of resource for an alleged grope in a bedroom however unpleasant it may have been for the women involved. I expect the drug dealers, burglars, muggers, local thugs who commit anti social behaviour on council estates and murderers in Scotland can sleep safe in their beds at a time of constrained police resources! Wouldn't her skills be better deployed?
Should the resources allocated to your reported crime be proportional to the fame of the person alleged to have committed it?
Wants peoples vote (second referendum) as Marr plays back his comprehensive rejection of a second vote last year
Just no integrity anymore
When you're the one laying the trap, getting caught in it yourself is not an edifying spectacle.
London loves the EU. Khan's volte face will go down will with his constituents.
No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.
I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn
Never is a difficult concept in politics, but very difficult to see how she can now ever run for PM.
It is a bit odd as iirc we were being told only a few weeks ago that she was seriously thinking of jumping down to England and seeking a seat.
Britain in the EU means a larger single market and a population of 65m who just love to buy imported goods.
And - something we rarely talk about - the EU without the U.K. has less standing globally and less coherence. It is a diminished force, can no longer legitimately represent all Europeans, and more likely to be weighed down by North-South tensions.
Brexit is lose-lose. Remain is win-win.
Your last paragraph could have been penned by a Brexiteer
The UK has declared that, instinctively, it is opposed to EU membership. Is it really to anybody's benefit that that is overlooked, probably when that feeling has barely changed? When we would likely be going back in with no rebate and many other opt outs removed. When the UK would have almost zero influence in future because a UK that has tried to leave and failed would have lost its ultimate trump card that meant they had to be listened to? And where, let's not forget, they could elect a government committed to triggering Article 50 again, on the back of a more planned process?
Interestingly when I was in Italy last month several Italians bought up the Eu with me.
They are not happy bunnies.
More than one person basically aid they were waiting to see how we got on before deciding if they wanted to leave.
The EU knows this - no wonder they are acting as they are.
What a great club eh?
Get people in, strip away democracy and lock them in on the quiet and punish any dissenters.
Oh and run interest rates and general policy for the benefit of Germany - remind me how that worked out for Spain, Italy and Greece amongst others.
As for our politicians who lied to us and connived in tying us to that bloated mess they should be ashamed.
There is a reason why the remainers have project fear on 24/7 (laughable as it is) - no one can articulate a positive vision of EU membership.
Why is that?
As far as the rest of the EU is concerned I get the feeling that none of the 27 want to see us leave, although their reasons may be different.
Whichever way it goes I fear there are going to be a lot of very unhappy people on one side or the other, and it will take a long time for the divisions to be healed!
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1041264229976879104
https://twitter.com/lewisiwu/status/1041269983362330626
Betting PostF1: be a little while before the blog's up so here's something that caught my eye right away: Raikkonen to be winner without Vettel or Hamilton, 7.5 (8 with boost), fifth the odds top three for each way.
It's effectively a bet for him to be top 5 (or top 3 if Vettel and Hamilton both DNF). Given the reliability failings of Red Bull and the fact that the top three teams are a league above everyone else, it'd be quite unlucky to fail.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/09/singapore-pre-race-2018.html
Not going to happen. May cannot do a deal that will satisfy the voters and her attempts to spin will convince nobody. You may breathe a sigh of relief that May has sold out on Brexit but the majority of her party and her voters won’t see it that way. Which is why she will never get a deal approved. You can’t have the losers dictating terms to the winners. That is not democracy.
K Hopkins
A reasonably successful new centre-left party would leave the Tories in power for at least another 10 years and quite possibly 20, while the opposition fought it out. That, rather than zealous loyalty or paralysis, is what is keeping moderates in the party. They would in my opinion lose an SDP vs Labour showdown, and even if they "won" (in terms of getting more votes) it would poison the well for a decade or more. They recognise that Jeremy won't carry on indefinitely and see a reasonable chance of liking his successor - it's worth noting that the anti-Momentum slate got about 40% of the votes.
https://twitter.com/BootstrapCook/status/1041007558457217024
Her orders were a slim majority in a dodgy advisory referendum and against her own judgement.
Her position is supine, immoral and totally lacking in leadership. History will judge her very harshly. Unless she surprises us in the end game.