Not really. Monroe quite rightly won her £24000 in damages. The Legal costs for her legal team were £107000 - nearly five times as much!
I really can't feel too sad for her legal team when they charged such extortionate costs over a case involving one tweet!
What price getting justice when the lawyers get five times more than the payout for the victims? How could ordinary people afford to take such risks if they feel they have been wronged?
Strange then they have made so little effort to get us to stay.
Without wishing to wade into such a sterile debate, that's totally wrong. They're making huge efforts to force us to stay.
Why do you think negotiations are a car crash and that the EU team veto every deal and lie repeatedly about what happens at every conference they have? Why do you suppose negotiations have been left to a pair of third rate drunks in Barnier and Juncker, neither of whom have any experience of complex negotiations and neither of whom would have had any legal standing in the matter (for all their posturing)? Why do you think they're playing such hardball on the Irish border in breach of their own agreement which clearly refers to the whole UK?
It's because they have calculated that if they keep the clock ticking long enough we will blink, and sign to either stay in fully or at least in the SM and CU. Because any other outcome, particularly a no-deal outcome, would be an absolute disaster for the EU as well as for us.
In this I believe them to be entirely and tragically mistaken but from their point of view - bearing in mind they genuinely believe everyone is secretly as ardently pro-EU as they are - it is a logical course of action.
If they realised that actually the EU is deeply unpopular and another serious recession caused by, I don't know, every bank in the Eurozone losing access to credit from London, could easily finish it, they might be behaving more rationally and aiming to keep us in by the drastic reforms that are needed. But unfortunately by letting Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr take charge that ship has sailed.
No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.
Ruth has done an immense service to politics by her admission of self harm and suicide issues and has widely been praised across the political divide
I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn
Bad news for Tory modernisers and moderates. She was the great future hope. Maybe not for next leader, but one after.
Never is a difficult concept in politics, but very difficult to see how she can now ever run for PM.
It is a bit odd as iirc we were being told only a few weeks ago that she was seriously thinking of jumping down to England and seeking a seat.
You should ignore 95% of what people say politicians are thinking about.
You should, after proper consideration, ignore 95% of what politicians say about themselves
One of Scotland’s most senior detectives has been assigned to lead the investigation into sex claims against Alex Salmond.
Detective Chief Superintendent Lesley Boal has been drafted in to spearhead the probe, with unprecedented senior resources at her disposal for such an inquiry. As the Head of Public Protection for Scotland, Boal is one of the most highly regarded officers on the force.
It emerged yesterday that Police Scotland had stepped up its operation, with a full blown investigation now underway. And the Sunday Mail has learned Boal will be given “every resource necessary”, with up to four detective chief inspectors at her disposal.
'Every resource necessary' from the police - do alleged crime victims where the accused is not famous also get that?
Seems a lot of resource for an alleged grope in a bedroom however unpleasant it may have been for the women involved. I expect the drug dealers, burglars, muggers, local thugs who commit anti social behaviour on council estates and murderers in Scotland can sleep safe in their beds at a time of constrained police resources! Wouldn't her skills be better deployed?
Should the resources allocated to your reported crime be proportional to the fame of the person alleged to have committed it?
I agree. This is absolutely ridiculous and frankly looks a bit vindictive by the Scottish Government.
Disagree. This removed any possibility of Salmond being able to play the "botched investigation" card. It's not vindictive, it's water tight.
I agree. Whatever conclusion the investigation comes to they're going to get pilloried for either a 'whitewash' or a 'witch hunt'. So they've chosen someone experienced who is not going to get it wrong, will not be subject to claims of 'junior officer mistake' and will be well placed to tell the critics to Foxtrot Oscar. I very much doubt any burglars will be free because Lesley Boal is working this case. And I also assume that the Scottish Government had absolutely nothing to do with this decision - so far they appear to have played it by the book.
No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.
Ruth has done an immense service to politics by her admission of self harm and suicide issues and has widely been praised across the political divide
I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn
History would suggest that Ruth is perfectly capable of changing her mind.
She is Scottish, lives in Edinburgh, has a job in Edinburgh, has a partner who lives with her in Edinburgh and is just about to give birth to a baby in Edinburgh.
Why on earth would any sane person in that position want to become leader of the UK Tory party?
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
Strange then they have made so little effort to get us to stay.
Without wishing to wade into such a sterile debate, that's totally wrong. They're making huge efforts to force us to stay.
Why do you think negotiations are a car crash and that the EU team veto every deal and lie repeatedly about what happens at every conference they have? Why do you suppose negotiations have been left to a pair of third rate drunks in Barnier and Juncker, neither of whom have any experience of complex negotiations and neither of whom would have had any legal standing in the matter (for all their posturing)? Why do you think they're playing such hardball on the Irish border in breach of their own agreement which clearly refers to the whole UK?
It's because they have calculated that if they keep the clock ticking long enough we will blink, and sign to either stay in fully or at least in the SM and CU. Because any other outcome, particularly a no-deal outcome, would be an absolute disaster for the EU as well as for us.
In this I believe them to be entirely and tragically mistaken but from their point of view - bearing in mind they genuinely believe everyone is secretly as ardently pro-EU as they are - it is a logical course of action.
If they realised that actually the EU is deeply unpopular and another serious recession caused by, I don't know, every bank in the Eurozone losing access to credit from London, could easily finish it, they might be behaving more rationally and aiming to keep us in by the drastic reforms that are needed. But unfortunately by letting Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr take charge that ship has sailed.
forgive the confusion I may have caused
I meant before the vote to leave
As I mentioned subsequent to our decision their play is to make it very painful to encourage the others.
Strange then they have made so little effort to get us to stay.
Without wishing to wade into such a sterile debate, that's totally wrong. They're making huge efforts to force us to stay.
Why do you think negotiations are a car crash and that the EU team veto every deal and lie repeatedly about what happens at every conference they have? Why do you suppose negotiations have been left to a pair of third rate drunks in Barnier and Juncker, neither of whom have any experience of complex negotiations and neither of whom would have had any legal standing in the matter (for all their posturing)? Why do you think they're playing such hardball on the Irish border in breach of their own agreement which clearly refers to the whole UK?
It's because they have calculated that if they keep the clock ticking long enough we will blink, and sign to either stay in fully or at least in the SM and CU. Because any other outcome, particularly a no-deal outcome, would be an absolute disaster for the EU as well as for us.
In this I believe them to be entirely and tragically mistaken but from their point of view - bearing in mind they genuinely believe everyone is secretly as ardently pro-EU as they are - it is a logical course of action.
If they realised that actually the EU is deeply unpopular and another serious recession caused by, I don't know, every bank in the Eurozone losing access to credit from London, could easily finish it, they might be behaving more rationally and aiming to keep us in by the drastic reforms that are needed. But unfortunately by letting Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr take charge that ship has sailed.
forgive the confusion I may have caused
I meant before the vote to leave
As I mentioned subsequent to our decision their play is to make it very painful to encourage the others.
What a club eh?
Before the vote, the EU followed Cameron’s direction to stay away from the debate.
Your cantankerous hatred of Europe is making you forgetful.
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
The only way it could happen is if Theresa May loses a vote of no confidence.
However, that in itself pushes the timetable back to mid-December as we would theoretically have to wait 14 days until Corbyn had failed to form a government.
Moreover, if I'm honest I can't see politicians voting for a winter election. There hasn't been one outside February-October since before the war. They also don't like canvassing in the dark and rain.
March seems a realistic possibility if May is toppled.
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
Although I see the EU Commission is proposing that from October 2019 we don't put the clocks back anymore and move to 'permanent summer time with member states potentially deciding which of the three EU time zones they wish to stay in. Perhaps we could trial it a year early so we get an extra hours daylight in the evening to vote in November?
Will we follow the EU anyway and move to permanent summer time as well from next year. London would love it but it might be less popular in Scotland where it wouldn't get light until 10am from mid November to January in the Highlands.
No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.
Ruth has done an immense service to politics by her admission of self harm and suicide issues and has widely been praised across the political divide
I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn
History would suggest that Ruth is perfectly capable of changing her mind.
She is Scottish, lives in Edinburgh, has a job in Edinburgh, has a partner who lives with her in Edinburgh and is just about to give birth to a baby in Edinburgh.
Why on earth would any sane person in that position want to become leader of the UK Tory party?
Can any ambitious politician be called wholly sane?
Strange then they have made so little effort to get us to stay.
Without wishing to wade into such a sterile debate, that's totally wrong. They're making huge efforts to force us to stay.
Why do you think negotiations are a car crash and that the EU team veto every deal and lie repeatedly about what happens at every conference they have? Why do you suppose negotiations have been left to a pair of third rate drunks in Barnier and Juncker, neither of whom have any experience of complex negotiations and neither of whom would have had any legal standing in the matter (for all their posturing)? Why do you think they're playing such hardball on the Irish border in breach of their own agreement which clearly refers to the whole UK?
It's because they have calculated that if they keep the clock ticking long enough we will blink, and sign to either stay in fully or at least in the SM and CU. Because any other outcome, particularly a no-deal outcome, would be an absolute disaster for the EU as well as for us.
In this I believe them to be entirely and tragically mistaken but from their point of view - bearing in mind they genuinely believe everyone is secretly as ardently pro-EU as they are - it is a logical course of action.
If they realised that actually the EU is deeply unpopular and another serious recession caused by, I don't know, every bank in the Eurozone losing access to credit from London, could easily finish it, they might be behaving more rationally and aiming to keep us in by the drastic reforms that are needed. But unfortunately by letting Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr take charge that ship has sailed.
forgive the confusion I may have caused
I meant before the vote to leave
As I mentioned subsequent to our decision their play is to make it very painful to encourage the others.
What a club eh?
Before the vote, the EU followed Cameron’s direction to stay away from the debate.
Your cantankerous hatred of Europe is making you forgetful.
I dislike the EU - not Europe - hopefully even you can follow that
Remind me what the EU offered Cameron?
oh thats' right sweet FA
After all - we could always be told to vote again - their usual playbook
Would be unusual for a party leader to give up his seat!
Why are people so convinced Corbyn will retire? This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the hard left to secure long term control of Labour.
If he is called to serve then he will serve the cause.
He will only go willingly once (a) the constitutional structure is changed (b) the parliamentary party has been reconstituted and (c) he can guarantee the movement can choose their own successor.
@SeanT once wrote about a bug that paralyses its prey. That’s a good metaphor here - it looks like Labour, but it’s no longer Labour as we knew it. The sooner that the good lefties such as @RochdalePioneers realised that then the sooner we can build a healthy left party. Frankly I’d donate to that organisation even though I’d have no desire to see it elected.
I agree with part of this - Jeremy won't have the slightest trouble in finding a seat, and he won't stand down for comfort and a quiet life: "if called then he will serve the cause" is exactly right. Foxy is right that the left doesn't have a clear successor, though - the inner circle is really just McDonnell and Abbott (neither of whom want the leadership on health grounds).
A reasonably successful new centre-left party would leave the Tories in power for at least another 10 years and quite possibly 20, while the opposition fought it out. That, rather than zealous loyalty or paralysis, is what is keeping moderates in the party. They would in my opinion lose an SDP vs Labour showdown, and even if they "won" (in terms of getting more votes) it would poison the well for a decade or more. They recognise that Jeremy won't carry on indefinitely and see a reasonable chance of liking his successor - it's worth noting that the anti-Momentum slate got about 40% of the votes.
That’s why they stay in, yes, but each time the ratchet turns it becomes harder for them.
Good old Rod. If you get to the end of that piece, you realize it's really about how wonderful yet victimized his mate Boris is.
Liddle is the thinking man’s Tommy Robinson. He’s an embarrassment to the “Right”.
Does Rod do much in the way of thinking though? I remember a piece by him years ago ranting about how crap and hammy Mel Brooks's acting was in The Producers only for him then to be told that Brooks wasn't actually a member of the cast.
Jack Monroe may have got a court order on costs (I assume) but if Hopkins can’t pay then she has a moral obligation to pay her lawyer herself
What is moral anyway about the victim's lawyers charging £107,000 for a legal case about one tweet when the victim only gets £24,000. I really won't be shedding any tears for the poor lawyers - at those rates they must be doing rather well!
Another lesson is keep off Twitter as Twitter spats can prove costly and make lawyers very rich! Perhaps we should think about how ridiculous it all was. It could all have been avoided if Hopkins had issued a tweet apologising and paid £5k to Monroe's nominated charity.
Good old Rod. If you get to the end of that piece, you realize it's really about how wonderful yet victimized his mate Boris is.
Liddle is the thinking man’s Tommy Robinson. He’s an embarrassment to the “Right”.
Didn't he used to vote for New Labour in the '90s? I seem to recall he was sacked by the Beeb after some ill-chosen remarks on how hunt supporters should remind Londoners why they voted Labour.
If so he's one convert I would have thought the Tories could do without.
The Hard left need Brexit to allow some of the things they have planned.
True. But also I think there is a cynical motive as well. They think that Brexit will bring economic chaos and the Tories will be blamed and so Jezza gets into power.
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
We would have had an October election this centurey - if Brown hadn't bottled it.....
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
We would have had an October election this centurey - if Brown hadn't bottled it.....
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
We would have had an October election this centurey - if Brown hadn't bottled it.....
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
October before the clocks go back is perhaps doable - but we have missed the boat for that. November to mid March is very difficult - cold, dark and miserable.
But we haven't departed from a spring or early summer election on for 40 years. It's quite nice doing it all with dawn at 4.30am or slightly later. Dawn was also just breaking on 24 June 2016 when leave won - pitch black darkness outside wouldn't have been the same.
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
We would have had an October election this centurey - if Brown hadn't bottled it.....
Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):
His willingness to engage in unmediated exchanges with members of the public is really refreshing. TMay would rather die than put herself in such a position.
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
October before the clocks go back is perhaps doable - but we have missed the boat for that. November to mid March is very difficult - cold, dark and miserable.
But we haven't departed from a spring or early summer election on for 40 years. It's quite nice doing it all with dawn at 4.30am or slightly later. Dawn was also just breaking on 24 June 2016 when leave won - pitch black darkness outside wouldn't have been the same.
On the other hand, the February 1950 election had a turnout of 84%. It was also high in February 1974.
Without wishing to wade into such a sterile debate, that's totally wrong. They're making huge efforts to force us to stay.
Why do you think negotiations are a car crash and that the EU team veto every deal and lie repeatedly about what happens at every conference they have? Why do you suppose negotiations have been left to a pair of third rate drunks in Barnier and Juncker, neither of whom have any experience of complex negotiations and neither of whom would have had any legal standing in the matter (for all their posturing)? Why do you think they're playing such hardball on the Irish border in breach of their own agreement which clearly refers to the whole UK?
It's because they have calculated that if they keep the clock ticking long enough we will blink, and sign to either stay in fully or at least in the SM and CU. Because any other outcome, particularly a no-deal outcome, would be an absolute disaster for the EU as well as for us.
In this I believe them to be entirely and tragically mistaken but from their point of view - bearing in mind they genuinely believe everyone is secretly as ardently pro-EU as they are - it is a logical course of action.
If they realised that actually the EU is deeply unpopular and another serious recession caused by, I don't know, every bank in the Eurozone losing access to credit from London, could easily finish it, they might be behaving more rationally and aiming to keep us in by the drastic reforms that are needed. But unfortunately by letting Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr take charge that ship has sailed.
There's a lot wrong here on the facts.
Firstly, Juncker is not part of the negotiation. Barnier takes his instruction from the EU27 governments through the European Council. He sticks closely to the script given him by the Council and was knocked back on the one occasion he did veer off. Donald Tusk, the Council President, probably has a bigger influence on policy, but ultimately it's the consensus policy set by the EU27.
Secondly deals are what the EU is good at. The fact they have conceded virtually nothing at all so far may be telling. This negotiation is led at the technical level by Sabine Weyand, Barnier's deputy, who is one of the top trade negotiators in the world.
Thirdly, the EU has not made a single move to stop us leaving. They are focused on getting us out with the least additional damage to them. (Which is perhaps something second referendumers might consider).
Fourthly attitudes to the EU in the remaining EU27 are mixed. The negatives are tied up in things like migration and the ability of governments to do what they want. Whether the EU gives us a good deal is not on anyone's radar, except perhaps the Irish, whom the UK government treats with misplaced patronising aggression. The EU has seen its stock rise in response to Brexit however.
Would be unusual for a party leader to give up his seat!
Why are people so convinced Corbyn will retire? This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the hard left to secure long term control of Labour.
If he is called to serve then he will serve the cause.
He will only go willingly once (a) the constitutional structure is changed (b) the parliamentary party has been reconstituted and (c) he can guarantee the movement can choose their own successor.
@SeanT once wrote about a bug that paralyses its prey. That’s a good metaphor here - it looks like Labour, but it’s no longer Labour as we knew it. The sooner that the good lefties such as @RochdalePioneers realised that then the sooner we can build a healthy left party. Frankly I’d donate to that organisation even though I’d have no desire to see it elected.
I agree with part of this - Jeremy won't have the slightest trouble in finding a seat, and he won't stand down for comfort and a quiet life: "if called then he will serve the cause" is exactly right. Foxy is right that the left doesn't have a clear successor, though - the inner circle is really just McDonnell and Abbott (neither of whom want the leadership on health grounds).
A reasonably successful new centre-left party would leave the Tories in power for at least another 10 years and quite possibly 20, while the opposition fought it out. That, rather than zealous loyalty or paralysis, is what is keeping moderates in the party. They would in my opinion lose an SDP vs Labour showdown, and even if they "won" (in terms of getting more votes) it would poison the well for a decade or more. They recognise that Jeremy won't carry on indefinitely and see a reasonable chance of liking his successor - it's worth noting that the anti-Momentum slate got about 40% of the votes.
It depends on numbers. Is there a majority of Labour MPs currently who are anti-Corbyn. There certainly seemed to be when all the resignations and votes of no confidence were happening. If so they COULD break away immediately becoming the official opposition, take the £50million, forge agreements with LibDems, SNP, Green and some Tories and vote against May. They'd only need to win one GE if they espoused proportional representation.
Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements
It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief
You mean just like the voters breathed a huge sigh of relief when May announced that the Cabinet had approved Chequers? Or when Cameron announced his renegotiation?
Not going to happen. May cannot do a deal that will satisfy the voters and her attempts to spin will convince nobody. You may breathe a sigh of relief that May has sold out on Brexit but the majority of her party and her voters won’t see it that way. Which is why she will never get a deal approved. You can’t have the losers dictating terms to the winners. That is not democracy.
In years to come, when the young generation ask May "How could you let that happen?" her defence will be the Adolph Eichmann defence "I was only following orders"
Her orders were a slim majority in a dodgy advisory referendum and against her own judgement.
Her position is supine, immoral and totally lacking in leadership. History will judge her very harshly. Unless she surprises us in the end game.
Oh, its a ‘dodgy advisory referendum’ when you lost. If you had won it would have been legitimate, binding and final. That is why nobody takes the talk of another vote seriously.
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
We would have had an October election this centurey - if Brown hadn't bottled it.....
That's a very saucy comment.
A gentleman's relish at such puns is obvious....
I may be playing katchup here, but that one failed to cut the mustard.
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
We would have had an October election this centurey - if Brown hadn't bottled it.....
That's a very saucy comment.
A gentleman's relish at such puns is obvious....
I may be playing katchup here, but that one failed to cut the mustard.
But it got us out of a jam when otherwise we were all talking about how Brexit has left us in the soup.
Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):
It depends on numbers. Is there a majority of Labour MPs currently who are anti-Corbyn. There certainly seemed to be when all the resignations and votes of no confidence were happening. If so they COULD break away immediately becoming the official opposition, take the £50million, forge agreements with LibDems, SNP, Green and some Tories and vote against May. They'd only need to win one GE if they espoused proportional representation.
Several problems with this. First, winning a FPTP election with a divided movement simply doesn't work, no matter how committed you are to PR if you win. 20-25% of the elctorate are strongly pro-Corbyn, as every poll shows (more are anti-Corbyn, but that includes Tories like Charles who will help with money but not votes), and the brand is probably worth an additional 10%.
Second, defection is simply very difficult - you lose most of your friends who have supported you for decades, and maybe some of your family - I'm relaxed about people changing party, perhaps because I come from the more diffuse Continental background with lots of parties, but many party people see it as much of a betrayal as adultery.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen? Were all the Labour candidates fervent lefties? I offer you one T. Blair as an example. I'd like Labour to be firmly left-wing, but it isn't, and the centrists know it.
It works on the other side too. How often has Anna Soubry said she's fed up with the Tories as they are, would join a centrist movement if there was one, etc.? But what is she going to do? Stand as the Tory candidate. Shrug.
Caewyn Jones on Ridge on Sunday said that Chequers was a move in the right direction and Barry Gardiner on the same programme denied Emily Thornberry said labour would take down any deal negotiated by TM and labour would consider how the deal met its requirements
It comes back to my point over the last few days that when TM agrees the deal and it is announced jointly with TM, Tusk and Juncker, with endorsements from Merkel and Macron it will be very difficult for labour to take it down, just when the voter breathes a great sigh of relief
Agree; I’m certainly getting the feeling that IF we have a referendum it’ll be ‘Out with this deal’ or ‘Stay in:.
Its a big if as the Tories would implode if we held one - and Corbyn still doesn't want one. We also have to bear in mind that 27 other member states and the EU parliament also have to approve any deal - do they wait for us? The 'peoples vote' idea still seems to be very London centric - no doubt there will be another people's march coming soon in London again but nowhere else to promote it.
Wake me up when Mansfield, Stoke and Hartlepool start marching in their tens of thousands demanding a Further Referendum - with Remain as an option......
One appreciates that May failed in terms of Parliamentary arimthmetic in the 2017 GE, but on reflection wasn’t it as much about pushing the next GE to 2022... as a counterfactual, where would we be on Brexit if we were now 18 months, and Brexit day a year away from the GE?
The DUP would have been covered in treadmarks after being run over by the leave bus with Northern Ireland being left in the customs union.
The Hard left need Brexit to allow some of the things they have planned.
True. But also I think there is a cynical motive as well. They think that Brexit will bring economic chaos and the Tories will be blamed and so Jezza gets into power.
It's all cynical - but yes that is there best bet and you can be bloody sure they will run with what could be their only chance to feck up err radically alter the country
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
No doubt this has been debated earlier before I surfaced, but Ruth Davidson now out at 50 on BF after Sunday Times front page.
Ruth has done an immense service to politics by her admission of self harm and suicide issues and has widely been praised across the political divide
I have zero hope that she will change her mind and that is bad news for labour as her star status rises in Scotland eclipsing the two Englishmen leading labour, Leonard in Scotland and Corbyn
History would suggest that Ruth is perfectly capable of changing her mind.
She is Scottish, lives in Edinburgh, has a job in Edinburgh, has a partner who lives with her in Edinburgh and is just about to give birth to a baby in Edinburgh.
Why on earth would any sane person in that position want to become leader of the UK Tory party?
Apart from anything else, she is better as a medium sized fish in a medium sized pond. She has little real connection with English politics, and it would be a steep learning curve. How much better to aim to be the first ever Tory First Minister of Scotland? There is opportunity in the current decay and disarray of the SNP.
I wish her well, she is one of the few Tories that I would consider voting for.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
It depends on numbers. Is there a majority of Labour MPs currently who are anti-Corbyn. There certainly seemed to be when all the resignations and votes of no confidence were happening. If so they COULD break away immediately becoming the official opposition, take the £50million, forge agreements with LibDems, SNP, Green and some Tories and vote against May. They'd only need to win one GE if they espoused proportional representation.
Several problems with this. First, winning a FPTP election with a divided movement simply doesn't work, no matter how committed you are to PR if you win. 20-25% of the elctorate are strongly pro-Corbyn, as every poll shows (more are anti-Corbyn, but that includes Tories like Charles who will help with money but not votes), and the brand is probably worth an additional 10%.
Second, defection is simply very difficult - you lose most of your friends who have supported you for decades, and maybe some of your family - I'm relaxed about people changing party, perhaps because I come from the more diffuse Continental background with lots of parties, but many party people see it as much of a betrayal as adultery.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen? Were all the Labour candidates fervent lefties? I offer you one T. Blair as an example. I'd like Labour to be firmly left-wing, but it isn't, and the centrists know it.
It works on the other side too. How often has Anna Soubry said she's fed up with the Tories as they are, would join a centrist movement if there was one, etc.? But what is she going to do? Stand as the Tory candidate. Shrug.
What I don't get is why people are STILL so convinced that a "new centrist party" would hurt Labour most.
As Stephen Bush has written at length, the people who tend to tell pollsters that they feel "politically unrepresented" by the current parties are Tory Remain voters (which, after all, still made up more than a third of Tory votes even in the 2017 "Brexit election").
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
October before the clocks go back is perhaps doable - but we have missed the boat for that. November to mid March is very difficult - cold, dark and miserable.
But we haven't departed from a spring or early summer election on for 40 years. It's quite nice doing it all with dawn at 4.30am or slightly later. Dawn was also just breaking on 24 June 2016 when leave won - pitch black darkness outside wouldn't have been the same.
On the other hand, the February 1950 election had a turnout of 84%. It was also high in February 1974.
People were tougher back then and lives were simpler and turnout higher. I very much doubt a February election - particularly if it snowed or was very cold - would have a higher turnout than one in May or June. The snowflakes would be a problem - and think of the health and safety issues if someone slipped on some ice outside a polling station. Someone might take it to court and bankrupt a local council with the excessive legal fees?
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary, Chancellor and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary, a former Transport secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
Approximately fuck all. Some of them didn't even make it that far. Bruce Douglas Mann honourably resigned his seat and lost the by-election. I think 18 of the 29 ultimately suffered defeat in 1983 along with Williams.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
So we're talking about Boris, Gove and Rudd being needed?
Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):
The words "con" and "connard" appear quite a lot after that tweet. Well, at least he did not suggest the bloke become a gigolo and service old ladies for a living.
...As Stephen Bush has written at length, the people who tend to tell pollsters that they feel "politically unrepresented" by the current parties are Tory Remain voters...
Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):
The words "con" and "connard" appear quite a lot after that tweet. Well, at least he did not suggest the bloke become a gigolo and service old ladies for a living.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
So we're talking about Boris, Gove and Rudd being needed?
One might say if only we had the quality of politicians we had back then - people who had done actual jobs perhaps in the real world (not the media or party HQ) before entering politics.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
So we're talking about Boris, Gove and Rudd being needed?
Edit - and Adonis? Or perhaps Grayling would be a better fit when he's finally sacked for serial uselessness?
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
So we're talking about Boris, Gove and Rudd being needed?
One might say if only we had the quality of politicians we had back then - people who had done actual jobs perhaps in the real world (not the media or party HQ) before entering politics.
Well, oddly that's true of both Hammond and Macdonnell. Don't like the latter, but running a residential children's home in the 80s would definitely have been life at the sharp end.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
So we're talking about Boris, Gove and Rudd being needed?
Edit - and Adonis? Or perhaps Grayling would be a better fit when he's finally sacked for serial uselessness?
If you need a past politician, you could always pick a Lilley......
Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):
His willingness to engage in unmediated exchanges with members of the public is really refreshing. TMay would rather die than put herself in such a position.
monte sur ton vélo....
I think Cameron got a lot of credit for doing so. I had a lot of sympathy for him when that Lib Dem activist with the disabled son played on his willingness to engage to try and make a big scene.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
So we're talking about Boris, Gove and Rudd being needed?
Edit - and Adonis? Or perhaps Grayling would be a better fit when he's finally sacked for serial uselessness?
Of all the words I would use to describe Adonis and Grayling, "being needed" would not be amongst them
Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):
The words "con" and "connard" appear quite a lot after that tweet. Well, at least he did not suggest the bloke become a gigolo and service old ladies for a living.
I wonder if the real Brexit negotiations involving Macron go anything like this?
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
So we're talking about Boris, Gove and Rudd being needed?
Edit - and Adonis? Or perhaps Grayling would be a better fit when he's finally sacked for serial uselessness?
If you need a past politician, you could always pick a Lilley......
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
So we're talking about Boris, Gove and Rudd being needed?
Edit - and Adonis? Or perhaps Grayling would be a better fit when he's finally sacked for serial uselessness?
Of all the words I would use to describe Adonis and Grayling, "being needed" would not be amongst them
It's as well we don't use the actual words, as even when redacted the correct epithet earns everyone except @murali_s, @SeanT and @TSE an automatic ban.
And since Murali was for some obscure reason describing himself I suppose the mods stretched a point.
...As Stephen Bush has written at length, the people who tend to tell pollsters that they feel "politically unrepresented" by the current parties are Tory Remain voters...
Linky?
Quick Google search only throws up this, although I'm sure I remember him going into much more detail than this so I don't know if there's another article that I can't get hold of:
I think it stands to reason though: if the more vulnerable part of the Tories' 2017 vote is Remain-inclined, and the more vulnerable part of Labour's 2017 vote is Leave-inclined, does that not give a hint as to which voter bloc a new party largely based on being anti-Brexit would appeal to?
Now, if this "new centrist party" was some kind of economically left-wing/socially conservative (a kind of "Red UKIP" or even "Frank Field-esque") party, then that would be a whole different kettle of fish, and would be most in line with the people who only grudgingly voted Lab in 2017 - but, that is usually the exact opposite of what people mean when they talk about a "new centrist party".
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
So we're talking about Boris, Gove and Rudd being needed?
Edit - and Adonis? Or perhaps Grayling would be a better fit when he's finally sacked for serial uselessness?
Of all the words I would use to describe Adonis and Grayling....
Shakespeare’s deservedly obscure sequel to Venus and Adonis ? (Which I think we discussed the other day in the ‘whiter than white’ debate...)
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
Only 6 SDP MPs were elected in 1983 of whom one - Charles Kennedy - was a new member.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
The SDP was founded by a former Home Secretary and President of the European Commission, a former Foreign Secretary and a former Education Secretary. Umunna amd Soubry aren't quite in that league.
So we're talking about Boris, Gove and Rudd being needed?
Edit - and Adonis? Or perhaps Grayling would be a better fit when he's finally sacked for serial uselessness?
Of all the words I would use to describe Adonis and Grayling, "being needed" would not be amongst them
Although, used independently, "being" and "needy" might be appropriate
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
Only 6 SDP MPs were elected in 1983 of whom one - Charles Kennedy - was a new member.
I make it six - Jenkins, Owen, Maclennan, Kennedy, Wrigglesworth and Cartwright.
Ah, I see you have corrected it.
Further Edit - so of the actual defectors, only four held their seats beyond 1983. Some retired and the majority were defeated.
The chances of a general election being held this year are now very small indeed. The Commons does not return from Recess until 9th October so that the very earliest Thursday for Polling Day would be 15th November - with 22nd November being much more likely. However, given the probable holding of a special EU summit in mid-November to consider any final deal, it becomes pretty difficult to see how an election could take place before the New Year.
We have had elections between April and June during BST since 1979 - and I would be amazed if that ever changes whatever the situation politically. No one is going to hold an election when it's getting dark at 4pm and freezing cold.
I think that is far from being written in stone. October elections were pretty common in the 3rd quarter of the 20th century having been held in 1951- 1959 - 1964 - and 1974. There was also a widespread expectation of a September/October election for 1978 until Callaghan made the decision which he later regretted. It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
October before the clocks go back is perhaps doable - but we have missed the boat for that. November to mid March is very difficult - cold, dark and miserable.
But we haven't departed from a spring or early summer election on for 40 years. It's quite nice doing it all with dawn at 4.30am or slightly later. Dawn was also just breaking on 24 June 2016 when leave won - pitch black darkness outside wouldn't have been the same.
On the other hand, the February 1950 election had a turnout of 84%. It was also high in February 1974.
People were tougher back then and lives were simpler and turnout higher. I very much doubt a February election - particularly if it snowed or was very cold - would have a higher turnout than one in May or June. The snowflakes would be a problem - and think of the health and safety issues if someone slipped on some ice outside a polling station. Someone might take it to court and bankrupt a local council with the excessive legal fees?
There were technical reasons why the turnout was high in both February elections - specifically the electoral registers were new and more up to date at that time of the year. Nowadays postal voting is an option much more readily available should there be concerns re- the weather etc.
Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):
I recall Margaret Thatcher had a similar encounter. You come across as uncaring, a perception that Mrs Thatcher already suffered from, as does Emanuel Macron. Politicians learn to avoid mixing with the public, which is a pity.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
Only 6 SDP MPs were elected in 1983 of whom one - Charles Kennedy - was a new member.
I make it six - Jenkins, Owen, Maclennan, Kennedy, Wrigglesworth and Cartwright.
Ah, I see you have corrected it.
Further Edit - so of the actual defectors, only four held their seats beyond 1983. Some retired and the majority were defeated.
In 1987 Jenkins and Wrigglesworth were defeated - as was Mike Hancock victor of the 1984 Portsmouth South By-election. On the other hand, Rosie Barnes was able to hang on to Greenwich - won at the by election a few months earlier.
F1: well, at least Monaco means it wasn't the most tedious race of the year.
F1 seems to have turned into Dodgems between Perez and Verstappen, but it's still become very dull. I don't watch it now and I don't think I'll miss it next year.
Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):
I recall Margaret Thatcher had a similar encounter. You come across as uncaring, a perception that Mrs Thatcher already suffered from, as does Emanuel Macron. Politicians learn to avoid mixing with the public, which is a pity.
Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan and John Major fared pretty well in their public encounters. Brown,though, did come a cropper.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
Only 6 SDP MPs were elected in 1983 of whom one - Charles Kennedy - was a new member.
I make it six - Jenkins, Owen, Maclennan, Kennedy, Wrigglesworth and Cartwright.
Ah, I see you have corrected it.
Further Edit - so of the actual defectors, only four held their seats beyond 1983. Some retired and the majority were defeated.
In 1987 Jenkins and Wrigglesworth were defeated - as was Mike Hancock victor of the 1984 Portsmouth South By-election. On the other hand, Rosie Barnes was able to hang on to Greenwich - won at the by election a few months earlier.
True, although not germane to the original question.
Which does however mean that the only original SDP MP to hold his seat after 1992 was Robert Maclennan (and I don't think it's any coincidence he was also the only one to join the Liberal Democrats).
F1: well, at least Monaco means it wasn't the most tedious race of the year.
Yes, we really needed some rain to make it fun. Though I suspect that wouldn’t have bothered Hamilton.
It's interesting to reflect that Sebastian Vettel's early career was noted for his extraordinary skill in the rain, including an almost unbelievable maiden victory in a Go kart Toro Rosso.
These days I wouldn't trust him with a Ford Fiesta in a drizzle.
It depends on numbers. Is there a majority of Labour MPs currently who are anti-Corbyn. There certainly seemed to be when all the resignations and votes of no confidence were happening. If so they COULD break away immediately becoming the official opposition, take the £50million, forge agreements with LibDems, SNP, Green and some Tories and vote against May. They'd only need to win one GE if they espoused proportional representation.
Several problems with this. First, winning a FPTP election with a divided movement simply doesn't work, no matter how committed you are to PR if you win. 20-25% of the elctorate are strongly pro-Corbyn, as every poll shows (more are anti-Corbyn, but that includes Tories like Charles who will help with money but not votes), and the brand is probably worth an additional 10%.
Second, defection is simply very difficult - you lose most of your friends who have supported you for decades, and maybe some of your family - I'm relaxed about people changing party, perhaps because I come from the more diffuse Continental background with lots of parties, but many party people see it as much of a betrayal as adultery.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen? Were all the Labour candidates fervent lefties? I offer you one T. Blair as an example. I'd like Labour to be firmly left-wing, but it isn't, and the centrists know it.
It works on the other side too. How often has Anna Soubry said she's fed up with the Tories as they are, would join a centrist movement if there was one, etc.? But what is she going to do? Stand as the Tory candidate. Shrug.
Well that was certainly true of the original SDP, but nowadays it's Labour MPs who are the ones who are out of step with the membership. They can wait to be deselected one by one and for Corbyn to tighten his grip on the party and to lose the Labour Party as we used to know it. It's not going to swing back to the centre anytime soon. If enough Labour MPs to form the official opposition broke away it transforms the political landscape. At the next GE you would have 'Real Labour' (maybe) standing on a popular platform with a new popular leader and you'd vote for your well know existing MP. Labour (now the third or fourth party, who you hadn't heard much from because they don't get many parliamentary questions) would put up Corbynites with dodgy back stories. However the electoral deal with the LibDems and Greens will help. What would have happened if the SDP had attracted many more MPs, it's the numbers that matter.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
Only 6 SDP MPs were elected in 1983 of whom one - Charles Kennedy - was a new member.
I make it six - Jenkins, Owen, Maclennan, Kennedy, Wrigglesworth and Cartwright.
Ah, I see you have corrected it.
Further Edit - so of the actual defectors, only four held their seats beyond 1983. Some retired and the majority were defeated.
In 1987 Jenkins and Wrigglesworth were defeated - as was Mike Hancock victor of the 1984 Portsmouth South By-election. On the other hand, Rosie Barnes was able to hang on to Greenwich - won at the by election a few months earlier.
True, although not germane to the original question.
Which does however mean that the only original SDP MP to hold his seat after 1992 was Robert Maclennan (and I don't think it's any coincidence he was also the only one to join the Liberal Democrats).
I miss Charles Kennedy. Seems from a different age now. Decent, gentle humour, good with the public and so on.
...As Stephen Bush has written at length, the people who tend to tell pollsters that they feel "politically unrepresented" by the current parties are Tory Remain voters...
Linky?
Quick Google search only throws up this, although I'm sure I remember him going into much more detail than this so I don't know if there's another article that I can't get hold of:
I think it stands to reason though: if the more vulnerable part of the Tories' 2017 vote is Remain-inclined, and the more vulnerable part of Labour's 2017 vote is Leave-inclined, does that not give a hint as to which voter bloc a new party largely based on being anti-Brexit would appeal to?
Now, if this "new centrist party" was some kind of economically left-wing/socially conservative (a kind of "Red UKIP" or even "Frank Field-esque") party, then that would be a whole different kettle of fish, and would be most in line with the people who only grudgingly voted Lab in 2017 - but, that is usually the exact opposite of what people mean when they talk about a "new centrist party".
Ah, I see. Bush was talking[1] from a left-wing perspective what Goodwin has been talking[2] about from a right-wing perspective: there is a unfilled gap in the UK for a pro-Brexit, economically liberal, socially conservative party. Thank you.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen?
28 sitting Labour MPs and 1 Conservative.
How many of those survived the 1983 GE?
Only 6 SDP MPs were elected in 1983 of whom one - Charles Kennedy - was a new member.
I make it six - Jenkins, Owen, Maclennan, Kennedy, Wrigglesworth and Cartwright.
Ah, I see you have corrected it.
Further Edit - so of the actual defectors, only four held their seats beyond 1983. Some retired and the majority were defeated.
In 1987 Jenkins and Wrigglesworth were defeated - as was Mike Hancock victor of the 1984 Portsmouth South By-election. On the other hand, Rosie Barnes was able to hang on to Greenwich - won at the by election a few months earlier.
True, although not germane to the original question.
Which does however mean that the only original SDP MP to hold his seat after 1992 was Robert Maclennan (and I don't think it's any coincidence he was also the only one to join the Liberal Democrats).
Indeed so. Cartwright and Barnes both lost in 1992 - the latter quite narrowly at Greenwich. Had he stood that year, Owen might well have held on to Devonport.
Not sure this will help his rating - unemployed horticulture student - Macron's advice - go work in a cafe or on a building site (if my ancient French is up to it!):
I recall Margaret Thatcher had a similar encounter. You come across as uncaring, a perception that Mrs Thatcher already suffered from, as does Emanuel Macron. Politicians learn to avoid mixing with the public, which is a pity.
Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan and John Major fared pretty well in their public encounters. Brown,though, did come a cropper.
To see a true class act with the public I recommend the Robert Kennedy documentary series. His outings with voters, especially the working class, like miners, and the poor agricultural workers, were amazing.
Mr. Jessop, if Channel 4 chose to broadcast it, then it's their own damned fault. Being surprised at Monaco or Singapore being boring is daft. They're almost always tedious.
Comments
I really can't feel too sad for her legal team when they charged such extortionate costs over a case involving one tweet!
What price getting justice when the lawyers get five times more than the payout for the victims? How could ordinary people afford to take such risks if they feel they have been wronged?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/katie-hopkins-libel-case-appeal-lose-jack-monroe-food-blogger-daily-mail-sun-a8155661.html
Why do you think negotiations are a car crash and that the EU team veto every deal and lie repeatedly about what happens at every conference they have? Why do you suppose negotiations have been left to a pair of third rate drunks in Barnier and Juncker, neither of whom have any experience of complex negotiations and neither of whom would have had any legal standing in the matter (for all their posturing)? Why do you think they're playing such hardball on the Irish border in breach of their own agreement which clearly refers to the whole UK?
It's because they have calculated that if they keep the clock ticking long enough we will blink, and sign to either stay in fully or at least in the SM and CU. Because any other outcome, particularly a no-deal outcome, would be an absolute disaster for the EU as well as for us.
In this I believe them to be entirely and tragically mistaken but from their point of view - bearing in mind they genuinely believe everyone is secretly as ardently pro-EU as they are - it is a logical course of action.
If they realised that actually the EU is deeply unpopular and another serious recession caused by, I don't know, every bank in the Eurozone losing access to credit from London, could easily finish it, they might be behaving more rationally and aiming to keep us in by the drastic reforms that are needed. But unfortunately by letting Juncker, Barnier and Selmayr take charge that ship has sailed.
You should, after proper consideration, ignore 95% of what politicians say about themselves
https://order-order.com/2018/09/16/gardiner-second-referendum-throw-may-lifeline/
The Hard left need Brexit to allow some of the things they have planned.
Why on earth would any sane person in that position want to become leader of the UK Tory party?
I meant before the vote to leave
As I mentioned subsequent to our decision their play is to make it very painful to encourage the others.
What a club eh?
Your cantankerous hatred of Europe is making you forgetful.
However, that in itself pushes the timetable back to mid-December as we would theoretically have to wait 14 days until Corbyn had failed to form a government.
Moreover, if I'm honest I can't see politicians voting for a winter election. There hasn't been one outside February-October since before the war. They also don't like canvassing in the dark and rain.
March seems a realistic possibility if May is toppled.
Although I see the EU Commission is proposing that from October 2019 we don't put the clocks back anymore and move to 'permanent summer time with member states potentially deciding which of the three EU time zones they wish to stay in. Perhaps we could trial it a year early so we get an extra hours daylight in the evening to vote in November?
Will we follow the EU anyway and move to permanent summer time as well from next year. London would love it but it might be less popular in Scotland where it wouldn't get light until 10am from mid November to January in the Highlands.
Remind me what the EU offered Cameron?
oh thats' right sweet FA
After all - we could always be told to vote again - their usual playbook
https://twitter.com/BootstrapCook/status/1040623349725110276?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1040623349725110276&ref_url=https://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&f=harrysplace&t_i=118798%20http%3A%2F%2Fhurryupharry.org%2F%3Fp%3D118798&t_u=http%3A%2F%2Fhurryupharry.org%2F2018%2F09%2F14%2Fmomentum-speaker-franco-berardi-and-the-new-nazis%2F&t_e=Momentum%20Speaker%20Franco%20Berardi%20and%20the%20New%20Nazis&t_d=Harry%27s%20Place%20%C2%BB%20Momentum%20Speaker%20Franco%20Berardi%20and%20the%20New%20Nazis&t_t=Momentum%20Speaker%20Franco%20Berardi%20and%20the%20New%20Nazis&s_o=default&l=#version=e7fe02698bddde52c3bc420198c95fb5
Another lesson is keep off Twitter as Twitter spats can prove costly and make lawyers very rich! Perhaps we should think about how ridiculous it all was. It could all have been avoided if Hopkins had issued a tweet apologising and paid £5k to Monroe's nominated charity.
So I must have just imagined that heavy downpour.
If so he's one convert I would have thought the Tories could do without.
It is probably true to say that the terms of the FTPA make it a fair bit more difficult to call an election to be held earlier than mid-October in that Parliament would have to be sitting and 5 weeks must now separate Dissolution and Polling Day.
https://twitter.com/EnCausee/status/1041251072801730561
But we haven't departed from a spring or early summer election on for 40 years. It's quite nice doing it all with dawn at 4.30am or slightly later. Dawn was also just breaking on 24 June 2016 when leave won - pitch black darkness outside wouldn't have been the same.
Firstly, Juncker is not part of the negotiation. Barnier takes his instruction from the EU27 governments through the European Council. He sticks closely to the script given him by the Council and was knocked back on the one occasion he did veer off. Donald Tusk, the Council President, probably has a bigger influence on policy, but ultimately it's the consensus policy set by the EU27.
Secondly deals are what the EU is good at. The fact they have conceded virtually nothing at all so far may be telling. This negotiation is led at the technical level by Sabine Weyand, Barnier's deputy, who is one of the top trade negotiators in the world.
Thirdly, the EU has not made a single move to stop us leaving. They are focused on getting us out with the least additional damage to them. (Which is perhaps something second referendumers might consider).
Fourthly attitudes to the EU in the remaining EU27 are mixed. The negatives are tied up in things like migration and the ability of governments to do what they want. Whether the EU gives us a good deal is not on anyone's radar, except perhaps the Irish, whom the UK government treats with misplaced patronising aggression. The EU has seen its stock rise in response to Brexit however.
They'd only need to win one GE if they espoused proportional representation.
It was almost a raspberry, indeed.
Second, defection is simply very difficult - you lose most of your friends who have supported you for decades, and maybe some of your family - I'm relaxed about people changing party, perhaps because I come from the more diffuse Continental background with lots of parties, but many party people see it as much of a betrayal as adultery.
I was a candidate in 1983, and the Alliance really looked a strong offer - several well-known leaders, and a Labour Party perceived as even further left than it is today. How many MPs defected? Half a dozen? Were all the Labour candidates fervent lefties? I offer you one T. Blair as an example. I'd like Labour to be firmly left-wing, but it isn't, and the centrists know it.
It works on the other side too. How often has Anna Soubry said she's fed up with the Tories as they are, would join a centrist movement if there was one, etc.? But what is she going to do? Stand as the Tory candidate. Shrug.
I wish her well, she is one of the few Tories that I would consider voting for.
As Stephen Bush has written at length, the people who tend to tell pollsters that they feel "politically unrepresented" by the current parties are Tory Remain voters (which, after all, still made up more than a third of Tory votes even in the 2017 "Brexit election").
(Ducks...)
I think Cameron got a lot of credit for doing so. I had a lot of sympathy for him when that Lib Dem activist with the disabled son played on his willingness to engage to try and make a big scene.
https://youtu.be/sP_l5aPww-4
And since Murali was for some obscure reason describing himself I suppose the mods stretched a point.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/04/it-s-tories-not-labour-who-should-fear-new-centrist-party
I think it stands to reason though: if the more vulnerable part of the Tories' 2017 vote is Remain-inclined, and the more vulnerable part of Labour's 2017 vote is Leave-inclined, does that not give a hint as to which voter bloc a new party largely based on being anti-Brexit would appeal to?
Now, if this "new centrist party" was some kind of economically left-wing/socially conservative (a kind of "Red UKIP" or even "Frank Field-esque") party, then that would be a whole different kettle of fish, and would be most in line with the people who only grudgingly voted Lab in 2017 - but, that is usually the exact opposite of what people mean when they talk about a "new centrist party".
(Which I think we discussed the other day in the ‘whiter than white’ debate...)
Ah, I see you have corrected it.
Further Edit - so of the actual defectors, only four held their seats beyond 1983. Some retired and the majority were defeated.
F1: well, at least Monaco means it wasn't the most tedious race of the year.
Though I suspect that wouldn’t have bothered Hamilton.
Which does however mean that the only original SDP MP to hold his seat after 1992 was Robert Maclennan (and I don't think it's any coincidence he was also the only one to join the Liberal Democrats).
Go kartToro Rosso.These days I wouldn't trust him with a Ford Fiesta in a drizzle.
It's a shame that one of the televised races was so utterly boring.
If enough Labour MPs to form the official opposition broke away it transforms the political landscape.
At the next GE you would have 'Real Labour' (maybe) standing on a popular platform with a new popular leader and you'd vote for your well know existing MP. Labour (now the third or fourth party, who you hadn't heard much from because they don't get many parliamentary questions) would put up Corbynites with dodgy back stories. However the electoral deal with the LibDems and Greens will help.
What would have happened if the SDP had attracted many more MPs, it's the numbers that matter.
[1] https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/04/it-s-tories-not-labour-who-should-fear-new-centrist-party
[2] https://www.politico.eu/article/introducing-britain-new-political-party-brexit-remainers-migration/
Only on Netflix at the moment I think.