politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The power and politics of pardon

ydoethur said:

Alistair said:

Whosoever it was that tipped the SD below 22% is a Saint.

Which SD?

It is a hugely confusing alphabet soup where you have two parties with the same initials.

The Socialists are "S" (they have a very long actual name)

Räkning i vallokal pågår. 50 av 6004 valdistrikt räknade.

S 25.6
SD 21.3
M 16.4

Alistair said:

Whosoever it was that tipped the SD below 22% is a Saint.

Alistair said:

Whosoever it was that tipped the SD below 22% is a Saint.

Agreed, Alistair, but I'm baffled as to how it could ever have been odds against in the light of copious polls. The price even eased out a bit on election eve.

Weird, but wonderful!

Pulpstar said:

Räkning i vallokal pågår. 50 av 6004 valdistrikt räknade.

S 25.6
SD 21.3
M 16.4

SD doing about 5% better than the first exit poll and 2% better than the second exit poll there.

SD also doing better than most polls which had them closer to the Moderates than the Social Democrats, instead it looks like the reverse

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Räkning i vallokal pågår. 50 av 6004 valdistrikt räknade.

S 25.6
SD 21.3
M 16.4

SD doing about 5% better than the first exit poll and 2% better than the second exit poll there.

SD also doing better than most polls which had them closer to the Moderates than the Social Democrats, instead it looks like the reverse

Does anyone know if rural or urban tend to report first ?

I imagine SD will be stronger outside of Stockholm say.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Räkning i vallokal pågår. 71 av 6004 valdistrikt räknade.

S 25.4
SD 20.6

Pardon my Swedish, is that a result or a change based predicipre?

S are down 4pp and SD up 5pp so far so heading for something like 27/18

Live results.

https://data.val.se/val/val2018/valnatt/R/rike/index.html

Hence my rural/urban question.

Hah Malmo is very very left wing.

Social Democrats on 63% there.

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Räkning i vallokal pågår. 50 av 6004 valdistrikt räknade.

S 25.6
SD 21.3
M 16.4

SD doing about 5% better than the first exit poll and 2% better than the second exit poll there.

SD also doing better than most polls which had them closer to the Moderates than the Social Democrats, instead it looks like the reverse

Does anyone know if rural or urban tend to report first ?

I imagine SD will be stronger outside of Stockholm say.

It may be rural results reporting more first so that may boost the SD a little, dreadful results for the Moderates especially so far though, it is the equivalent of the Tories falling 5% behind UKIP

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1038866401337991168?s=20

28.0, 21.7, 16.6.

204 av 6 004 distrikt räknade. Resultat hämtade kl 20.12.

Source: https://sverigesradio.se/

HYUFD said:

Updates Results 204 districts in

Social Dems 28, Swedish Dems 22, Moderates 17, Centre 11


https://sverigesradio.se/

snap

1.01 train Choo choo

thecommissioner said:

It looks very much like a 5-6% swing to SD from S.

The governing party hangs on but is weakened while the populist option now speaks for something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 of the population - a pattern evident in many parts of Europe now.

Yes, in 3 Western European countries, Italy, France and now Sweden the main centre right party has been overtaken by a populist, nationalist, anti immigration party. A warning for those who say the Tories should abandon Brexit completely.

Of course in Italy and France and Greece the main centre left party has been overtaken by a populist, leftwing, anti austerity party too which may also be a warning to those who say Labour should abandon Corbynism

28.8, 19.5, 17.2

679 av 6 004 distrikt räknade. Resultat hämtade kl 20.27.

Amusing there is any sort of market left on this. Some wishful thinking/bottling going on

29.0, 19.1, 17.4

805 av 6 004 distrikt räknade. Resultat hämtade kl 20.31.

https://sverigesradio.se/

The official results site is still down.

https://www.val.se/

Apologies for distracting from the fun in Sweden, but this piece in the Guardian appears to prove Williams wrong:

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/sep/09/carlos-ramos-serena-williams-tennis-umpire-us-open

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

thecommissioner said:

It looks very much like a 5-6% swing to SD from S.

The governing party hangs on but is weakened while the populist option now speaks for something like 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 of the population - a pattern evident in many parts of Europe now.

Yes, in 3 Western European countries, Italy, France and now Sweden the main centre right party has been overtaken by a populist, nationalist, anti immigration party. A warning for those who say the Tories should abandon Brexit completely.

Of course in Italy and France and Greece the main centre left party has been overtaken by a populist, leftwing, anti austerity party too which may also be a warning to those who say Labour should abandon Corbynism

In this country of course, Labour hasn't been overtaken it's been taken over.

Yes, same with Trump's GOP but they have been taken over by those who would have formed hard right or hard left parties in Western Europe

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ydoethur said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1038847735766700032

[Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "The Empire Strikes Back"]

Good grief.

I never thought you and I would agree on this one...

"[sigh] The boy has no patience!"

Were you any different when I taught you?

28.5 18.5 18.4. SD about to be overtaken by Moderates? Greens still at 4.2.

1 345 av 6 004 distrikt räknade. Resultat hämtade kl 20.40.

Was the first exit poll more accurate than the second SVT?

https://sverigesradio.se/

I now have to go catch a train, so will see you at about midnight.

tlg86 said:

Apologies for distracting from the fun in Sweden, but this piece in the Guardian appears to prove Williams wrong:

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/sep/09/carlos-ramos-serena-williams-tennis-umpire-us-open

It was clear that the umpire was just following the rules of the game. Her coach has admitted he was in the wrong,

It does nobody any good when you play the sexism card and get found wanting.

Knowing when to quit is an important skill to have. It would be a shame for a stellar career to descend into a mess of identity politics and playing the victim.

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Moderates sneaking up on the Swedish Dems lol

Nothing lol about it, these are abysmal results for the Moderates (the Tories sister party in the International Democrat Union), it is effectively like UKIP being ahead of the Tories here

You mean like at Euro 2014?

Pulpstar said:

Moderates sneaking up on the Swedish Dems lol

Crossover !

There was a glorious, and profitable moment, when the percentage changes pointed to that. Assuming no big last minute swings, it has helped me to a profit of £350 or so.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Moderates sneaking up on the Swedish Dems lol

Nothing lol about it, these are abysmal results for the Moderates (the Tories sister party in the International Democrat Union), it is effectively like UKIP being ahead of the Tories here

You mean like at Euro 2014?

Sunil, I travelled on my first IET Azuma today, on the Cotswold line to Oxford. Two points spting to mind:

*) The seats are *really* uncomfortable, and I have a fair amount of padding on my bottom.
*) They can't get the electronic signs right even on a new train; for the entire journey it as saying the next station was Worcester.

28.2, 17.8 19.5

4095 out of 6004 at 21.23

Moderates now in second place, which seems very... moderate of them
Greens now at 4.4

ydoethur said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

ydoethur said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

ydoethur said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1038847735766700032

[Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "The Empire Strikes Back"]

Good grief.

I never thought you and I would agree on this one...

"[sigh] The boy has no patience!"

Were you any different when I taught you?

Have you ever ended up teaching with anyone you taught?

Not yet, although I have taught alongside several of my former teachers after I briefly went back to my old school on supply.

Give me time...

You know when you are on the downward slope when your former trainees are teaching you.

I speak from experience!

justin124 said:

Poor result for Yougov in Sweden - having placed the Swedish Democrats in the lead!

It is staggeringly difficult for pollster from place X to poll place y. Nate silver tried to do UK in 2010 and fucked it up bigstyle (120 Libs?!)

https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/1038841175963258880

I’m quite pleased I went public last month on my hunch that YouGov and Sentio were overstating the Sweden Democrats:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/08/03/the-limits-of-populism-will-the-hard-right-disappoint-its-fans-most-ardent-hopes-again-in-sweden/

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1038844661941579776

simply oozing with sincerity....

AlastairMeeks said:

I’m quite pleased I went public last month on my hunch that YouGov and Sentio were overstating the Sweden Democrats:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/08/03/the-limits-of-populism-will-the-hard-right-disappoint-its-fans-most-ardent-hopes-again-in-sweden/

Beforetimers are the best kind of timers.

WD.

Foxy said:

rottenborough said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1038844661941579776

simply oozing with sincerity....

"I want to extend my warmest greetings."

...But I can't because I hate you all.

He did send similar greetings last new year.

He hasn’t changed his views in 50 years

AlastairMeeks said:

I’m quite pleased I went public last month on my hunch that YouGov and Sentio were overstating the Sweden Democrats:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/08/03/the-limits-of-populism-will-the-hard-right-disappoint-its-fans-most-ardent-hopes-again-in-sweden/

Thanks for the tip on the previous thread header Alistair 👍

AlastairMeeks said:

I’m quite pleased I went public last month on my hunch that YouGov and Sentio were overstating the Sweden Democrats:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/08/03/the-limits-of-populism-will-the-hard-right-disappoint-its-fans-most-ardent-hopes-again-in-sweden/

Permission to enable smug mode is granted.

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/casmudde/status/1038856818544529410?s=21

Smaller than the graphic implies

S -2.8
SD +4.7
M -3.5

Being the main ones

Willsman is at it again.
https://twitter.com/TheRedRoar/status/1038858691783602178

They just want to keep this going.

oxfordsimon said:

Willsman is at it again.
https://twitter.com/TheRedRoar/status/1038858691783602178

They just want to keep this going.

Bit odd to say you were obviously speaking as an individual activist, when saying you had seen nothing, even though you are on the NEC disciplinary team and had seen lots.

There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace @HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.

Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.

Foxy said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace @HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.

Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess though.

The same very nearly happened here last year.

Yes.

Richard_Nabavi said:

There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace @HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.

Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.

How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?

HYUFD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace @HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.

Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.

How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?

But didn’t they also hold the balance in the previous Parliament? Why couldn’t a similar arrangement - a minority govt but tolerated by the opposition with strict policy constraints - be put in place for the new one?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

FT

Barnier to pin down agreement at Salzburg meeting as EU vows to save Theresa May

Kinda blindingly obvious, they neither want the Conservative ideologues Brexit and they don't want a Corbyn led government post Brexit either.

How did Yougov get it so so wrong, their polling was horrific on this !

Pulpstar said:

How did Yougov get it so so wrong, their polling was horrific on this !

YouGov are not a Swedish pollster

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace @HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.

Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.

How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?

Minority government, or a reassortment of minor parties. Easy Peasy.

Even a minority Social Democrat Government is not possible as the centre right block may well end up with more than the centre left block and the Moderates are well behind the Social Democrats and neither will touch the Swedish Democrats with a bargepole, so most likely it will have to be a Moderate and Social Democrat Grand Coalition led by Lofven

JohnO said:

HYUFD said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

There are similarities to the 2016 Irish election, with a result where no combination can command a majority. Pace @HYUFD, a grand coalition is not inevitable, in fact it's rather unlikely. Most likely is either an arrangement like that between Fine Gael and Fianna Fianna Fáil, in which the centre right agrees to let the centre right govern but with restrictions on what they can do, or the converse with the centre right governing, or a centre-right minority government to which the Sweden Democrats provide limited support on a 'we can pull the plug anytime' basis.

Like Ireland, and Italy, it's a helluva mess however you look at it.

How can there not be a Grand Coalition when both centre right and centre left blocks are deadlocked without giving the Swedish Democrats the balance of power?

But didn’t they also hold the balance in the previous Parliament? Why couldn’t a similar arrangement - a minority govt but tolerated by the opposition with strict policy constraints - be put in place for the new one?

Last time the centre left block had more MPs than the centre right block, that may well not be the case this time

Pulpstar said:

GIN1138 said:

Pulpstar said:

How did Yougov get it so so wrong, their polling was horrific on this !

What's happened to displease you?

Incoming Betfair Premium charge on Social Democrats winnings. Obviously I bet against Yougov exceptionalism - but I didn't think they'd be quite this far off.

It is still a poor result for the 2 main parties and the Swedish Democrats will likely now be the main party of opposition, whether the Swedish Democrats came top or not was largely irrelevant to that, the main thing is they prevented either of the other main blocks winning,

YouGov are not a Swedish pollster

JosiasJessop said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

Moderates sneaking up on the Swedish Dems lol

Nothing lol about it, these are abysmal results for the Moderates (the Tories sister party in the International Democrat Union), it is effectively like UKIP being ahead of the Tories here

You mean like at Euro 2014?

Sunil, I travelled on my first IET Azuma today, on the Cotswold line to Oxford. Two points spting to mind:

*) The seats are *really* uncomfortable, and I have a fair amount of padding on my bottom.
*) They can't get the electronic signs right even on a new train; for the entire journey it as saying the next station was Worcester.

Sounds like the new Crossrail trains - the most uncomfortable train seats I have ever sat on. Given the massive cut in seats compared to the old trains though it probably won't matter - standing will be the order of the day.