politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you’re betting on the next Lib Dem leader the field could a

First

Please tell me LibDem conference is going to stop this reckless madman?

I repeat as loud as I can: this is utter utter insanity and will end with the destruction of the LibDems.

Doesn't have to be an MP, either.

Sadly, Shadsy doesn't seem to rate Lembit's chances (500/1), much longer than George Osborne (100/1).

Tell you what, though - wouldn't UK politics be transformed if they went for David Miliband (66/1)?

[For the avoidance of doubt, none of the above are tips!]

Even if the LibDem supporters club* gets it right this time and votes for non-MP who isn't an insane right wing or hard left nutter, what about the next time.

* also known as an old right or left wing nutjob who can get past the pathetic checks the party will have.

LibDem PBers! Stop this if you can.

At this rate what with Blue Momentum, Momentum, UKIP joining forces with Tommy Robinson and now LibDem Momentum in embryo form, the Green Party will be the only UK party left that hasn't gone completely mad.

rottenborough said:

Even if the LibDem supporters club* gets it right this time and votes for non-MP who isn't an insane right wing or hard left nutter, what about the next time.

* also known as an old right or left wing nutjob who can get past the pathetic checks the party will have.

LibDem PBers! Stop this if you can.

If you're not a lib dem, why are you so worried about the party being destroyed?

How the f could a moderate Lab MP take over as leader and remain Labour?

If there is one waiting in the wings they should jump now and there should be a normal leadership contest.

matt said:

Is the thought process here, “ I’m rational, the people I generally speak to are rational, the population of Twickenham is generally middle class rational, everyone is rational”? Too much time in a narrow environment.

Nope.

One of the Twickenham residents is allegedly in possession of ballistic missiles, or something similar, in his pocket.

Twickenham people are a unhinged as any other region

Stereotomy said:

rottenborough said:

Even if the LibDem supporters club* gets it right this time and votes for non-MP who isn't an insane right wing or hard left nutter, what about the next time.

* also known as an old right or left wing nutjob who can get past the pathetic checks the party will have.

LibDem PBers! Stop this if you can.

If you're not a lib dem, why are you so worried about the party being destroyed?

Because I want to live in a democracy where there is at least one or two proper functioning parties that haven't been infiltrated and ruined by extreme nutjobs.

Have the Lib Dems not been watching over the summer, at a live example of what happens when a political party opens itself up to anyone without a commitment?

Sandpit said:

Have the Lib Dems not been watching over the summer, at a live example of what happens when a political party opens itself up to anyone without a commitment?

Nope.

Stereotomy said:

oxfordsimon said:

rottenborough said:

At this rate what with Blue Momentum, Momentum, UKIP joining forces with Tommy Robinson and now LibDem Momentum in embryo form, the Green Party will be the only UK party left that hasn't gone completely mad.

The Green Party has their fair share of antisemitism and oddballs. Plus they are only paying the male half of their new leadership team.

That is a pretty mad decision.

Main battle within the Green party at the moment is about transsexuality

Are they still arguing over the merits or otherwise of allowing a rapist to go to a women’s prison, if they say they feel a bit female?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6139305/Transgender-prisoner-rapist-identifies-woman-admits-sexually-assaulting-fellow-inmates.html

I think you have to look at what Cable is saying in a wider context.

Several senior MPs have this summer mentioned a period of National Government being the only way out of the Brexit Malaise and the extremist take over of the Labour party. Nicholas Soames and Mike Gapes have even mentioned it on the floor of the H of C.

I think Cable might well be positioning the Lib Dems a survival strategy as surely the Lib Dem MPs would take part in any National Government. If all Lib Dem MPs were involved in a Government of National unity, then someone needs to lead the non parliamentary party!

The scenario is as follows, the PM cannot get Chequers through parliament. The Tory Brexiteers launch a leadership contest. The PM invites dissident moderate Labour MPs and the Lib Dems into Government. She then calls an election whereby moderate Tories, Labour and all LD are all under the Coupon of National Government candidates. The central theme of the National Government ticket is to maintain the UK in the EU and to retract Article 50 should she win. If this scenario did occur, what would the Brexiteers do such as Johnson, Fox and Rees - Mogg. Would they risk defeat under a non National banner? I suspect Johnson would rather be pissing inside the tent than outside and Fox likes being in power hence his non resignation this summer! Just saying, the above scenario is a possibility and we should not judge Cable today as being anything other than intelligent given the wider context.

To be honest, I'm not sure who would gain from infiltrating the lib dems. Anybody who has a party who already represents them wouldn't want to install a leader, because they'd just split their own party's vote

The_Taxman said:

I think you have to look at what Cable is saying in a wider context.

Several senior MPs have this summer mentioned a period of National Government being the only way out of the Brexit Malaise and the extremist take over of the Labour party. Nicholas Soames and Mike Gapes have even mentioned it on the floor of the H of C.

I think Cable might well be positioning the Lib Dems a survival strategy as surely the Lib Dem MPs would take part in any National Government. If all Lib Dem MPs were involved in a Government of National unity, then someone needs to lead the non parliamentary party!

The scenario is as follows, the PM cannot get Chequers through parliament. The Tory Brexiteers launch a leadership contest. The PM invites dissident moderate Labour MPs and the Lib Dems into Government. She then calls an election whereby moderate Tories, Labour and all LD are all under the Coupon of National Government candidates. The central theme of the National Government ticket is to maintain the UK in the EU and to retract Article 50 should she win. If this scenario did occur, what would the Brexiteers do such as Johnson, Fox and Rees - Mogg. Would they risk defeat under a non National banner? I suspect Johnson would rather be pissing inside the tent than outside and Fox likes being in power hence his non resignation this summer! Just saying, the above scenario is a possibility and we should not judge Cable today as being anything other than intelligent given the wider context.

You think May is the person to go through with all that?

Wow!

Maybe I will end up eating my baseball cap, but nothing in her entire life suggests that level of historic risk taking par excellence.

The_Taxman said:

I think you have to look at what Cable is saying in a wider context.

Several senior MPs have this summer mentioned a period of National Government being the only way out of the Brexit Malaise and the extremist take over of the Labour party. Nicholas Soames and Mike Gapes have even mentioned it on the floor of the H of C.

I think Cable might well be positioning the Lib Dems a survival strategy as surely the Lib Dem MPs would take part in any National Government. If all Lib Dem MPs were involved in a Government of National unity, then someone needs to lead the non parliamentary party!

The scenario is as follows, the PM cannot get Chequers through parliament. The Tory Brexiteers launch a leadership contest. The PM invites dissident moderate Labour MPs and the Lib Dems into Government. She then calls an election whereby moderate Tories, Labour and all LD are all under the Coupon of National Government candidates. The central theme of the National Government ticket is to maintain the UK in the EU and to retract Article 50 should she win. If this scenario did occur, what would the Brexiteers do such as Johnson, Fox and Rees - Mogg. Would they risk defeat under a non National banner? I suspect Johnson would rather be pissing inside the tent than outside and Fox likes being in power hence his non resignation this summer! Just saying, the above scenario is a possibility and we should not judge Cable today as being anything other than intelligent given the wider context.

So you're saying that Cable is intelligent because he's putting his party at huge risk in order to prepare for this insane fever-dream scenario that will never ina million years transpire?

rottenborough said:

Sandpit said:

Have the Lib Dems not been watching over the summer, at a live example of what happens when a political party opens itself up to anyone without a commitment?

The problem with opening up is that it doesn't work. Ordinary busy, fairly non-political people don't join as supporters, just as they haven't joined as members. Certainly not in the numbers strategists theorise about.

Instead, madly committed, raving loons who have been in other fringe parties see a massive open goal opportunity and go for it.

Can Vince explain to us why he thinks LibDems will be different to Labour?

And can his party afford a decent level of checking of supporters to see whether they are members of other parties or have been in the past.

Indeed, I can’t see any positives that could come out of it, it would be a takeover by fringe intereststs. What happens if the “new members” want to elect David Ward, Chris Rennard or Lembit Opik?

The Tories are dealing with a similar problem at the moment, as Arron Banks is spending a lot of money encouraging entryists. We don’t want people with “UKIP TILL I DIE” or “FREE TOMMY ROBINSON” as their Twitter handles joining, thanks very much.

Vince who?

rottenborough said:

The_Taxman said:

I think you have to look at what Cable is saying in a wider context.

Several senior MPs have this summer mentioned a period of National Government being the only way out of the Brexit Malaise and the extremist take over of the Labour party. Nicholas Soames and Mike Gapes have even mentioned it on the floor of the H of C.

I think Cable might well be positioning the Lib Dems a survival strategy as surely the Lib Dem MPs would take part in any National Government. If all Lib Dem MPs were involved in a Government of National unity, then someone needs to lead the non parliamentary party!

The scenario is as follows, the PM cannot get Chequers through parliament. The Tory Brexiteers launch a leadership contest. The PM invites dissident moderate Labour MPs and the Lib Dems into Government. She then calls an election whereby moderate Tories, Labour and all LD are all under the Coupon of National Government candidates. The central theme of the National Government ticket is to maintain the UK in the EU and to retract Article 50 should she win. If this scenario did occur, what would the Brexiteers do such as Johnson, Fox and Rees - Mogg. Would they risk defeat under a non National banner? I suspect Johnson would rather be pissing inside the tent than outside and Fox likes being in power hence his non resignation this summer! Just saying, the above scenario is a possibility and we should not judge Cable today as being anything other than intelligent given the wider context.

You think May is the person to go through with all that?

Wow!

Maybe I will end up eating my baseball cap, but nothing in her entire life suggests that level of historic risk taking par excellence.

It might be her only option. If she is being put on notice of a leadership challenge.

The_Taxman said:

Freggles said:

I can't see the problem with this proposal tbh. Are we worried about legions of extreme centrists?

The Tories should do the same for their leadership contests in the future, after all they have had open primaries for MP positions so why not an open leadership contest with the whole of the population invited to engage? Indeed, in the longer run it could be used to change Conservative voters into Conservative members. Some extremists will engage but if they are open to entryism at the moment from the far right, then opening the franchise completely will stop extremists in their tracks.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/671348849647198208

Yvette Cooper for leader.

"German spy chief at odds with Merkel over hounding of migrants in Chemnitz
Michelle Martin, Paul Carrel

BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s domestic spy chief expressed scepticism on Friday that migrants had been hounded in Chemnitz after the fatal stabbing of a German man, undermining Chancellor Angela Merkel who has said images from the eastern city “very clearly” showed hate."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-protests/germanys-top-spy-not-convinced-migrants-were-hunted-down-in-chemnitz-idUSKCN1LN0VP

Jonathan said:

So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

What next?

You wake up?

Stereotomy said:

Jonathan said:

So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

What next?

You wake up?

That would be a better outcome than not in that scenario, which would be the nightmare for many.

williamglenn said:

Jonathan said:

So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

What next?

They form a coalition with a moderate Tory leader, instantly become toxic but run a stable administration for 5 years before getting crushed in the next election. Rinse and repeat?

Well quite, the new party - even if it does very well - by historic standards- is still not out of trouble.

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

What next?

We likely still have a Tory PM as most of the votes they take will probably be from Remain backing Labour voters rather than mainly Leave voting Tory voters so the Tories likely remain largest party but most votes will have to be compromised over to get through

A coalition kills the new party. Corbyn or death in that scenario.

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

What next?

We likely still have a Tory PM as most of the votes they take will probably be from Remain backing Labour voters rather than mainly Leave voting Tory voters so the Tories likely remain largest party but most votes will have to be compromised over to get through

A coalition kills the new party. Corbyn or death in that scenario.

Neither Corbyn not Tory leader.

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.

Would you welcome Labour members?

Yes, provided they are genuine converts rather than entryists, ditto for the sane wing of the Tories.

Jonathan said:

An interning scenario is

New party 180 seats
Labour 140 seats.
Tories 250 seats

Labour would surely have to have a new leader before any New Party would deal. No point in walking away from Corbyn only to then bring him into government with you. Same for his fellow travellers. None of his supporters would be welcome - surely.

williamglenn said:

The_Taxman said:

Freggles said:

I can't see the problem with this proposal tbh. Are we worried about legions of extreme centrists?

The Tories should do the same for their leadership contests in the future, after all they have had open primaries for MP positions so why not an open leadership contest with the whole of the population invited to engage? Indeed, in the longer run it could be used to change Conservative voters into Conservative members. Some extremists will engage but if they are open to entryism at the moment from the far right, then opening the franchise completely will stop extremists in their tracks.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/671348849647198208

I did not mean the candidates as they would come from the PCP (So no Trump but Johnson might do better than the current system), just all voters would get involved in the selection. I see the downside but at least it avoids entryism.

Jonathan said:

So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

What next?

Not gonna happen but if it did, probably a coalition with Labour (and the SNP if required) implementing most of Labour's social and economic policies on the condition Corbyn, Milne and co aren't allowed anywhere near No. 10. Would be perfect, in power and you send the cranks into a marginalised frenzy and reunite Labour as a sensible party again.

Well , we can dream, eh?

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.

Would you welcome Labour members?

Yes, provided they are genuine converts rather than entryists, ditto for the sane wing of the Tories.

Still believing in what moderate Social Democratic Labour folk believe in? Would they need to convert?

I used to be a member of Labour, so it is not a long journey,but the parties are different.

I would deal with defections by a case by case basis.

williamglenn said:

How about a new party which stands in England and Wales only and copies SNP-style progressive policies?

Is it progressive to stop poor Scottish students having full access to Higher Education? I don't see anything progressive there at all.

Foxy said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.

There is no doubt that Brexit is the single most important event facing the country at the minute, but being a one trick pony is only going to get you so far. Invisible Vince wasn't much of a circus master.

Beverley_C said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

What is the point of ANY of the "big three" parties?

I'd say we only have a big two now, unless you're including the SNP as one of the three?
Surely the point of any modern political party is to get elected, and then get reelected? Running the country clearly comes a distant second. Maybe we should all join the Lib Dems, make it a real #peoplesparty and keep the professionals out of the loop?

The Cable plan might just work, but it's premised on two assumptions. Firstly it doesn't have much of an institutional investment to lose. Secondly there isn't anyone within that institution able to take it forward.I would say the second is probably the case. The first I'm not sure.of. I think the Liberal or Lib Dem brand does have some value.

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

Jonathan said:

Foxy said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.

Would you welcome Labour members?

Yes, provided they are genuine converts rather than entryists, ditto for the sane wing of the Tories.

Still believing in what moderate Social Democratic Labour folk believe in? Would they need to convert?

I used to be a member of Labour, so it is not a long journey,but the parties are different.

I would deal with defections by a case by case basis.

So what would I need to do? Swear allegiance wearing sandals and socks? Asking for a friend.

A sense of humour helps, but is not sufficient in itself.

In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.

MJW said:

Jonathan said:

MJW said:

Jonathan said:

So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

What next?

Not gonna happen but if it did, probably a coalition with Labour (and the SNP if required) implementing most of Labour's social and economic policies on the condition Corbyn, Milne and co aren't allowed anywhere near No. 10. Would be perfect, in power and you send the cranks into a marginalised frenzy and reunite Labour as a sensible party again.

Well , we can dream, eh?

So exactly the same as staying put, but with less chance of it happening.

As soon as Labour wins power, assuming a small majority, organised backbenchers become very powerful.

Not in Corbyn's Labour. The mob is already powerful and will only get more so. Imagine he does win a narrow election - MPs aren't going to be able to turf him out without being utterly destroyed by the Momentum hordes. Plus, there's the moral question.

To pass laws or do anything you need them to vote for you.

Debating tips for the modern age...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4q-VbAIMzU&feature=youtu.be

Foxy said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Foxy said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.

There is no doubt that Brexit is the single most important event facing the country at the minute, but being a one trick pony is only going to get you so far. Invisible Vince wasn't much of a circus master.

I completely agree.

I opposed Vince from the start,today convinced me that I was correct.

It just seems he has managed to fail as a leader and decides to come up with a rambling mess of an idea

Layla Moran seems capable enough but is in a very marginal seat. However she woud be a huge improvement on the old fossil (says an old fossil)

On Robert's point on demographics (which is the economic killer that dare not speak its name) it seems we have three choices: (1) accept ever more anemica growth and taxes on the workers, and a slower rise in living standards (2) mass immigration or (3) more home births.

After much deliberation I've changed my mind. I think the Government should adopt policies that support and encourage young families and births. This should include greater childcare support, child benefit and parenting/support centres. It also needs to then include more education on base and higher skills. This should be coupled with reforms to encourage those over 65 to work part or full time and contribute. I'd also cut NI for employers and extend it to be a lifelong tax under the header of "social insurance".

That's the only way I see we can get reasonable growth in the long term without mass immigration.

Foxy said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.

That’s not a party, it’s a pressure group. No different to UKIP, Friends of the Earth ornthe Taxpayers’ Alliance. Whinging is easy. Positivism is hard.

Pulpstar said:

Debating tips for the modern age...
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4q-VbAIMzU&feature=youtu.be

I wonder how long it will take for the Corbynista to make that go viral without realising it’s a spoof. The young lady teacher with the slight Aussie accent is Chloe Westley from the Taxpayers’ Alliance.

matt said:

Foxy said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.

That’s not a party, it’s a pressure group. No different to UKIP, Friends of the Earth ornthe Taxpayers’ Alliance. Whinging is easy. Positivism is hard.

Single issue campaigns have taken over all parties. Brexit for the Tories, #peoplesvote for the LDs, and bizarrely anti-Semitism for Labour. Greens and SNP are self explanatory.

It's a pile of pants all round.

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Jonathan said:

In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.

FF43 said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

That seems to be the question Vince Cable is asking too. Hence his plan.

Not much of a plan, is it? We're shit and we need to parachute some fecker in who can actually engage with the public and come up with something that doesn't involve us chewing off the EU?

I suspect Cable is hoping for a Macron. You can select from the current crop of MPs. To be fair they are decent pavement politicians. Getting elected as a Lib Dem MP is hard work when the natural order is one of the main parties. They are good at potholes but so much on the bigger picture. Heather remains firmly unalight. So you find someone able to articulate an idea that can resonate.and bring new people in. There are plenty reasons why this might not work, aired on his forum. The Devils Advocate would say, what's to lose?

Saw a report this morning attacking jet air hand dryers as they spread more germs and bacteria than using paper towels. There is a call to ban them from all hospitals

When you think about it it does make sense

ralphmalph said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

I saw some stills from a pro Brexit demo and the hatred on the faces was dreadful. Same hatred as you see from the hard left.

It is time for the vast majority of normal decent people to rise up and strike this evil from our Country.

Where has tolerance and decency gone. A new centre ground party would be a good start

It went out the window when after the vote leavers were call thick, racist northerners.
All this by so called "centre" parties full of moderates.

There is no place or excuse for it in society

Jonathan said:

FF43 said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

Jonathan said:

In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.

FF43 said:

twistedfirestopper3 said:

What's the point of the Lib Dems?

That seems to be the question Vince Cable is asking too. Hence his plan.

Not much of a plan, is it? We're shit and we need to parachute some fecker in who can actually engage with the public and come up with something that doesn't involve us chewing off the EU?

I suspect Cable is hoping for a Macron. You can select from the current crop of MPs. To be fair they are decent pavement politicians. Getting elected as a Lib Dem MP is hard work when the natural order is one of the main parties. They are good at potholes but so much on the bigger picture. Heather remains firmly unalight. So you find someone able to articulate an idea that can resonate.and bring new people in. There are plenty reasons why this might not work, aired on his forum. The Devils Advocate would say, what's to lose?

Macron came from the governing party where he was a popular minister in an unpopular administration. Not sure we have a Macron.

And is now very unpopular.