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SystemSystem Posts: 12,687
edited September 2018 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you’re betting on the next Lib Dem leader the field could about to get rather large

Sir Vince Cable: "I'm not putting a timeline [on it]"

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Comments

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    First
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    First again - just to make sure!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    edited September 2018
    Please tell me LibDem conference is going to stop this reckless madman?

    I repeat as loud as I can: this is utter utter insanity and will end with the destruction of the LibDems.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    "Current Lib Dem members might be very annoyed their vote is about to be diluted."

    Hopefully so annoyed they will use conference to stop this insanity.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2018
    Doesn't have to be an MP, either.

    Sadly, Shadsy doesn't seem to rate Lembit's chances (500/1), much longer than George Osborne (100/1).

    Tell you what, though - wouldn't UK politics be transformed if they went for David Miliband (66/1)?

    [For the avoidance of doubt, none of the above are tips!]
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    edited September 2018
    Cable wasn't a good choice by the Lib Dems.

    A lost opportunity of several years where they should have had fruitful fishing from tory and Labour troubled waters.

    Not first as well
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    edited September 2018
    Even if the LibDem supporters club* gets it right this time and votes for non-MP who isn't an insane right wing or hard left nutter, what about the next time.

    * also known as an old right or left wing nutjob who can get past the pathetic checks the party will have.

    LibDem PBers! Stop this if you can.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    I'm not doing anything on Tuesdays at the moment. I could give it a go. Can't be too hard
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    edited September 2018
    At this rate what with Blue Momentum, Momentum, UKIP joining forces with Tommy Robinson and now LibDem Momentum in embryo form, the Green Party will be the only UK party left that hasn't gone completely mad.

  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Is the thought process here, “ I’m rational, the people I generally speak to are rational, the population of Twickenham is generally middle class rational, everyone is rational”? Too much time in a narrow environment.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rottenborough said:

    Even if the LibDem supporters club* gets it right this time and votes for non-MP who isn't an insane right wing or hard left nutter, what about the next time.

    * also known as an old right or left wing nutjob who can get past the pathetic checks the party will have.

    LibDem PBers! Stop this if you can.

    If you're not a lib dem, why are you so worried about the party being destroyed?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    rottenborough said:

    At this rate what with Blue Momentum, Momentum, UKIP joining forces with Tommy Robinson and now LibDem Momentum in embryo form, the Green Party will be the only UK party left that hasn't gone completely mad.

    The Green Party has their fair share of antisemitism and oddballs. Plus they are only paying the male half of their new leadership team.

    That is a pretty mad decision.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    How the f could a moderate Lab MP take over as leader and remain Labour?

    If there is one waiting in the wings they should jump now and there should be a normal leadership contest.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    oxfordsimon said:

    rottenborough said:

    At this rate what with Blue Momentum, Momentum, UKIP joining forces with Tommy Robinson and now LibDem Momentum in embryo form, the Green Party will be the only UK party left that hasn't gone completely mad.

    The Green Party has their fair share of antisemitism and oddballs. Plus they are only paying the male half of their new leadership team.

    That is a pretty mad decision.
    Main battle within the Green party at the moment is about transsexuality
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,706
    matt said:

    Is the thought process here, “ I’m rational, the people I generally speak to are rational, the population of Twickenham is generally middle class rational, everyone is rational”? Too much time in a narrow environment.

    Nope.

    One of the Twickenham residents is allegedly in possession of ballistic missiles, or something similar, in his pocket.

    Twickenham people are a unhinged as any other region
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    Stereotomy said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    rottenborough said:

    At this rate what with Blue Momentum, Momentum, UKIP joining forces with Tommy Robinson and now LibDem Momentum in embryo form, the Green Party will be the only UK party left that hasn't gone completely mad.

    The Green Party has their fair share of antisemitism and oddballs. Plus they are only paying the male half of their new leadership team.

    That is a pretty mad decision.
    Main battle within the Green party at the moment is about transsexuality
    At least their members get to choose the leader, paid or not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    Stereotomy said:

    rottenborough said:

    Even if the LibDem supporters club* gets it right this time and votes for non-MP who isn't an insane right wing or hard left nutter, what about the next time.

    * also known as an old right or left wing nutjob who can get past the pathetic checks the party will have.

    LibDem PBers! Stop this if you can.

    If you're not a lib dem, why are you so worried about the party being destroyed?
    Because I want to live in a democracy where there is at least one or two proper functioning parties that haven't been infiltrated and ruined by extreme nutjobs.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Bear in mind that even if the proposals pass:
    -The membership will still control the nomination process
    -All candidates will have to Lib Dem members
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,980
    Have the Lib Dems not been watching over the summer, at a live example of what happens when a political party opens itself up to anyone without a commitment?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    rottenborough said:

    Stereotomy said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    rottenborough said:

    At this rate what with Blue Momentum, Momentum, UKIP joining forces with Tommy Robinson and now LibDem Momentum in embryo form, the Green Party will be the only UK party left that hasn't gone completely mad.

    The Green Party has their fair share of antisemitism and oddballs. Plus they are only paying the male half of their new leadership team.

    That is a pretty mad decision.
    Main battle within the Green party at the moment is about transsexuality
    At least their members get to choose the leader, paid or not.
    Was hardly an inspiring selection.

    Plus how can they justify not paying their co-leaders equally? How can they stand for equality when they pay the man but not the woman for doing the same job?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    Sandpit said:

    Have the Lib Dems not been watching over the summer, at a live example of what happens when a political party opens itself up to anyone without a commitment?

    Nope.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    rottenborough said:

    At this rate what with Blue Momentum, Momentum, UKIP joining forces with Tommy Robinson and now LibDem Momentum in embryo form, the Green Party will be the only UK party left that hasn't gone completely mad.

    The Greens in Germany are edging towards becoming the most popular centre-left party. Perhaps it's a better candidate for a reverse takeover of Labour moderates than the Lib Dems.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,980
    Stereotomy said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    rottenborough said:

    At this rate what with Blue Momentum, Momentum, UKIP joining forces with Tommy Robinson and now LibDem Momentum in embryo form, the Green Party will be the only UK party left that hasn't gone completely mad.

    The Green Party has their fair share of antisemitism and oddballs. Plus they are only paying the male half of their new leadership team.

    That is a pretty mad decision.
    Main battle within the Green party at the moment is about transsexuality
    Are they still arguing over the merits or otherwise of allowing a rapist to go to a women’s prison, if they say they feel a bit female?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6139305/Transgender-prisoner-rapist-identifies-woman-admits-sexually-assaulting-fellow-inmates.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    Sandpit said:

    Have the Lib Dems not been watching over the summer, at a live example of what happens when a political party opens itself up to anyone without a commitment?

    The problem with opening up is that it doesn't work. Ordinary busy, fairly non-political people don't join as supporters, just as they haven't joined as members. Certainly not in the numbers strategists theorise about.

    Instead, madly committed, raving loons who have been in other fringe parties see a massive open goal opportunity and go for it.

    Can Vince explain to us why he thinks LibDems will be different to Labour?

    And can his party afford a decent level of checking of supporters to see whether they are members of other parties or have been in the past.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I think you have to look at what Cable is saying in a wider context.

    Several senior MPs have this summer mentioned a period of National Government being the only way out of the Brexit Malaise and the extremist take over of the Labour party. Nicholas Soames and Mike Gapes have even mentioned it on the floor of the H of C.

    I think Cable might well be positioning the Lib Dems a survival strategy as surely the Lib Dem MPs would take part in any National Government. If all Lib Dem MPs were involved in a Government of National unity, then someone needs to lead the non parliamentary party!

    The scenario is as follows, the PM cannot get Chequers through parliament. The Tory Brexiteers launch a leadership contest. The PM invites dissident moderate Labour MPs and the Lib Dems into Government. She then calls an election whereby moderate Tories, Labour and all LD are all under the Coupon of National Government candidates. The central theme of the National Government ticket is to maintain the UK in the EU and to retract Article 50 should she win. If this scenario did occur, what would the Brexiteers do such as Johnson, Fox and Rees - Mogg. Would they risk defeat under a non National banner? I suspect Johnson would rather be pissing inside the tent than outside and Fox likes being in power hence his non resignation this summer! Just saying, the above scenario is a possibility and we should not judge Cable today as being anything other than intelligent given the wider context.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    philiph said:

    Cable wasn't a good choice by the Lib Dems.

    A lost opportunity of several years where they should have had fruitful fishing from tory and Labour troubled waters.

    Not first as well

    Looks like not only was he not a good choice, but he is actually a suicidal maniac who wants to finish the party off.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    To be honest, I'm not sure who would gain from infiltrating the lib dems. Anybody who has a party who already represents them wouldn't want to install a leader, because they'd just split their own party's vote
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,021
    Can't believe Vince isn't going to get knifed over this. Didn't (far more) Lib Dem MPs stage a coup against Menzies Campbell for basically being a bit old and useless? Vince is now that and effectively a lame duck, given he's said he's going, is generally agreed to have been abysmal, and now has put forward an absurd proposal while losing another six months at a key moment when Labour may well be splintering, implementing it.

    Added to that, despite having only 12 MPs, they have two really good options for leader (Moran, Swinson - the former I think would be excellent), and two senior figures (Davey, Lamb) who'd do better if they fancy a dull caretaker who'd nonetheless be less useless.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    The_Taxman said:

    I think you have to look at what Cable is saying in a wider context.

    Several senior MPs have this summer mentioned a period of National Government being the only way out of the Brexit Malaise and the extremist take over of the Labour party. Nicholas Soames and Mike Gapes have even mentioned it on the floor of the H of C.

    I think Cable might well be positioning the Lib Dems a survival strategy as surely the Lib Dem MPs would take part in any National Government. If all Lib Dem MPs were involved in a Government of National unity, then someone needs to lead the non parliamentary party!

    The scenario is as follows, the PM cannot get Chequers through parliament. The Tory Brexiteers launch a leadership contest. The PM invites dissident moderate Labour MPs and the Lib Dems into Government. She then calls an election whereby moderate Tories, Labour and all LD are all under the Coupon of National Government candidates. The central theme of the National Government ticket is to maintain the UK in the EU and to retract Article 50 should she win. If this scenario did occur, what would the Brexiteers do such as Johnson, Fox and Rees - Mogg. Would they risk defeat under a non National banner? I suspect Johnson would rather be pissing inside the tent than outside and Fox likes being in power hence his non resignation this summer! Just saying, the above scenario is a possibility and we should not judge Cable today as being anything other than intelligent given the wider context.

    You think May is the person to go through with all that?

    Wow!

    Maybe I will end up eating my baseball cap, but nothing in her entire life suggests that level of historic risk taking par excellence.


  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    I can't see the problem with this proposal tbh. Are we worried about legions of extreme centrists?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    The_Taxman said:

    I think you have to look at what Cable is saying in a wider context.

    Several senior MPs have this summer mentioned a period of National Government being the only way out of the Brexit Malaise and the extremist take over of the Labour party. Nicholas Soames and Mike Gapes have even mentioned it on the floor of the H of C.

    I think Cable might well be positioning the Lib Dems a survival strategy as surely the Lib Dem MPs would take part in any National Government. If all Lib Dem MPs were involved in a Government of National unity, then someone needs to lead the non parliamentary party!

    The scenario is as follows, the PM cannot get Chequers through parliament. The Tory Brexiteers launch a leadership contest. The PM invites dissident moderate Labour MPs and the Lib Dems into Government. She then calls an election whereby moderate Tories, Labour and all LD are all under the Coupon of National Government candidates. The central theme of the National Government ticket is to maintain the UK in the EU and to retract Article 50 should she win. If this scenario did occur, what would the Brexiteers do such as Johnson, Fox and Rees - Mogg. Would they risk defeat under a non National banner? I suspect Johnson would rather be pissing inside the tent than outside and Fox likes being in power hence his non resignation this summer! Just saying, the above scenario is a possibility and we should not judge Cable today as being anything other than intelligent given the wider context.

    So you're saying that Cable is intelligent because he's putting his party at huge risk in order to prepare for this insane fever-dream scenario that will never ina million years transpire?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,007
    edited September 2018
    Stereotomy said:

    To be honest, I'm not sure who would gain from infiltrating the lib dems. Anybody who has a party who already represents them wouldn't want to install a leader, because they'd just split their own party's vote

    If enough SWP/Kipper types infiltrate, then they could tie the party in knots for months with local party crap about Israel or whatever.

    Or will supporters not be allowed to meetings.

    Maybe we need more details on all this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,980
    edited September 2018
    rottenborough said:

    Sandpit said:

    Have the Lib Dems not been watching over the summer, at a live example of what happens when a political party opens itself up to anyone without a commitment?

    The problem with opening up is that it doesn't work. Ordinary busy, fairly non-political people don't join as supporters, just as they haven't joined as members. Certainly not in the numbers strategists theorise about.

    Instead, madly committed, raving loons who have been in other fringe parties see a massive open goal opportunity and go for it.

    Can Vince explain to us why he thinks LibDems will be different to Labour?

    And can his party afford a decent level of checking of supporters to see whether they are members of other parties or have been in the past.
    Indeed, I can’t see any positives that could come out of it, it would be a takeover by fringe intereststs. What happens if the “new members” want to elect David Ward, Chris Rennard or Lembit Opik?

    The Tories are dealing with a similar problem at the moment, as Arron Banks is spending a lot of money encouraging entryists. We don’t want people with “UKIP TILL I DIE” or “FREE TOMMY ROBINSON” as their Twitter handles joining, thanks very much.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,288
    Looks like a battle between Swinson and Moran unless a new centrist party has been formed by then
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Vince who?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    The_Taxman said:

    I think you have to look at what Cable is saying in a wider context.

    Several senior MPs have this summer mentioned a period of National Government being the only way out of the Brexit Malaise and the extremist take over of the Labour party. Nicholas Soames and Mike Gapes have even mentioned it on the floor of the H of C.

    I think Cable might well be positioning the Lib Dems a survival strategy as surely the Lib Dem MPs would take part in any National Government. If all Lib Dem MPs were involved in a Government of National unity, then someone needs to lead the non parliamentary party!

    The scenario is as follows, the PM cannot get Chequers through parliament. The Tory Brexiteers launch a leadership contest. The PM invites dissident moderate Labour MPs and the Lib Dems into Government. She then calls an election whereby moderate Tories, Labour and all LD are all under the Coupon of National Government candidates. The central theme of the National Government ticket is to maintain the UK in the EU and to retract Article 50 should she win. If this scenario did occur, what would the Brexiteers do such as Johnson, Fox and Rees - Mogg. Would they risk defeat under a non National banner? I suspect Johnson would rather be pissing inside the tent than outside and Fox likes being in power hence his non resignation this summer! Just saying, the above scenario is a possibility and we should not judge Cable today as being anything other than intelligent given the wider context.

    This is pure fantasy and would collapse after the first leaked WhatsApp group chat.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    rottenborough said:

    The_Taxman said:

    I think you have to look at what Cable is saying in a wider context.

    Several senior MPs have this summer mentioned a period of National Government being the only way out of the Brexit Malaise and the extremist take over of the Labour party. Nicholas Soames and Mike Gapes have even mentioned it on the floor of the H of C.

    I think Cable might well be positioning the Lib Dems a survival strategy as surely the Lib Dem MPs would take part in any National Government. If all Lib Dem MPs were involved in a Government of National unity, then someone needs to lead the non parliamentary party!

    The scenario is as follows, the PM cannot get Chequers through parliament. The Tory Brexiteers launch a leadership contest. The PM invites dissident moderate Labour MPs and the Lib Dems into Government. She then calls an election whereby moderate Tories, Labour and all LD are all under the Coupon of National Government candidates. The central theme of the National Government ticket is to maintain the UK in the EU and to retract Article 50 should she win. If this scenario did occur, what would the Brexiteers do such as Johnson, Fox and Rees - Mogg. Would they risk defeat under a non National banner? I suspect Johnson would rather be pissing inside the tent than outside and Fox likes being in power hence his non resignation this summer! Just saying, the above scenario is a possibility and we should not judge Cable today as being anything other than intelligent given the wider context.

    You think May is the person to go through with all that?

    Wow!

    Maybe I will end up eating my baseball cap, but nothing in her entire life suggests that level of historic risk taking par excellence.


    It might be her only option. If she is being put on notice of a leadership challenge.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Freggles said:

    I can't see the problem with this proposal tbh. Are we worried about legions of extreme centrists?

    The Tories should do the same for their leadership contests in the future, after all they have had open primaries for MP positions so why not an open leadership contest with the whole of the population invited to engage? Indeed, in the longer run it could be used to change Conservative voters into Conservative members. Some extremists will engage but if they are open to entryism at the moment from the far right, then opening the franchise completely will stop extremists in their tracks.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    The_Taxman said:

    Freggles said:

    I can't see the problem with this proposal tbh. Are we worried about legions of extreme centrists?

    The Tories should do the same for their leadership contests in the future, after all they have had open primaries for MP positions so why not an open leadership contest with the whole of the population invited to engage? Indeed, in the longer run it could be used to change Conservative voters into Conservative members. Some extremists will engage but if they are open to entryism at the moment from the far right, then opening the franchise completely will stop extremists in their tracks.
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/671348849647198208
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    The_Taxman said:

    Freggles said:

    I can't see the problem with this proposal tbh. Are we worried about legions of extreme centrists?

    The Tories should do the same for their leadership contests in the future, after all they have had open primaries for MP positions so why not an open leadership contest with the whole of the population invited to engage? Indeed, in the longer run it could be used to change Conservative voters into Conservative members. Some extremists will engage but if they are open to entryism at the moment from the far right, then opening the franchise completely will stop extremists in their tracks.
    We are grafting a Presidential position onto a parliamentary system of government.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Yvette Cooper for leader.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,643
    What's the point of the Lib Dems?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "German spy chief at odds with Merkel over hounding of migrants in Chemnitz
    Michelle Martin, Paul Carrel

    BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany’s domestic spy chief expressed scepticism on Friday that migrants had been hounded in Chemnitz after the fatal stabbing of a German man, undermining Chancellor Angela Merkel who has said images from the eastern city “very clearly” showed hate."

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-protests/germanys-top-spy-not-convinced-migrants-were-hunted-down-in-chemnitz-idUSKCN1LN0VP
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited September 2018
    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    You wake up?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    They form a coalition with a moderate Tory leader, instantly become toxic but run a stable administration for 5 years before getting crushed in the next election. Rinse and repeat?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Stereotomy said:

    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    You wake up?
    That would be a better outcome than not in that scenario, which would be the nightmare for many.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,210
    philiph said:

    Cable wasn't a good choice by the Lib Dems.

    A lost opportunity of several years where they should have had fruitful fishing from tory and Labour troubled waters.

    Not first as well

    Cable was a coronation, not a choice.

    Never a good idea.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    williamglenn said:

    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    They form a coalition with a moderate Tory leader, instantly become toxic but run a stable administration for 5 years before getting crushed in the next election. Rinse and repeat?
    Well quite, the new party - even if it does very well - by historic standards- is still not out of trouble.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,288
    edited September 2018
    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    We likely still have a Tory PM as most of the votes they take will probably be from Remain backing Labour voters rather than mainly Leave voting Tory voters so the Tories likely remain largest party but most votes will have to be compromised over to get through
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,210
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rottenborough said:

    How the f could a moderate Lab MP take over as leader and remain Labour?

    If there is one waiting in the wings they should jump now and there should be a normal leadership contest.

    Yeah, those tweets are baffling. If you had an MP, surely they'd switch party. At which point opening the contest to non-MPs would hurt, rather than help them.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    We likely still have a Tory PM as most of the votes they take will probably be from Remain backing Labour voters rather than mainly Leave voting Tory voters so the Tories likely remain largest party but most votes will have to be compromised over to get through
    A coalition kills the new party. Corbyn or death in that scenario.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    Would you welcome Labour members?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,210
    edited September 2018
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    We likely still have a Tory PM as most of the votes they take will probably be from Remain backing Labour voters rather than mainly Leave voting Tory voters so the Tories likely remain largest party but most votes will have to be compromised over to get through
    A coalition kills the new party. Corbyn or death in that scenario.
    Neither Corbyn not Tory leader.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    An interning scenario is

    New party 180 seats
    Labour 140 seats.
    Tories 250 seats

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,210
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    Would you welcome Labour members?
    Yes, provided they are genuine converts rather than entryists, ditto for the sane wing of the Tories.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    What is the point of ANY of the "big three" parties?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Jonathan said:

    An interning scenario is

    New party 180 seats
    Labour 140 seats.
    Tories 250 seats

    Labour would surely have to have a new leader before any New Party would deal. No point in walking away from Corbyn only to then bring him into government with you. Same for his fellow travellers. None of his supporters would be welcome - surely.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    Would you welcome Labour members?
    Yes, provided they are genuine converts rather than entryists, ditto for the sane wing of the Tories.
    Still believing in what moderate Social Democratic Labour folk believe in? Would they need to convert?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    williamglenn said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Freggles said:

    I can't see the problem with this proposal tbh. Are we worried about legions of extreme centrists?

    The Tories should do the same for their leadership contests in the future, after all they have had open primaries for MP positions so why not an open leadership contest with the whole of the population invited to engage? Indeed, in the longer run it could be used to change Conservative voters into Conservative members. Some extremists will engage but if they are open to entryism at the moment from the far right, then opening the franchise completely will stop extremists in their tracks.
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/671348849647198208
    I did not mean the candidates as they would come from the PCP (So no Trump but Johnson might do better than the current system), just all voters would get involved in the selection. I see the downside but at least it avoids entryism.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    How about a new party which stands in England and Wales only and copies SNP-style progressive policies?
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,021
    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    Not gonna happen but if it did, probably a coalition with Labour (and the SNP if required) implementing most of Labour's social and economic policies on the condition Corbyn, Milne and co aren't allowed anywhere near No. 10. Would be perfect, in power and you send the cranks into a marginalised frenzy and reunite Labour as a sensible party again.

    Well , we can dream, eh?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    oxfordsimon said:

    Jonathan said:

    An interning scenario is

    New party 180 seats
    Labour 140 seats.
    Tories 250 seats

    Labour would surely have to have a new leader before any New Party would deal. No point in walking away from Corbyn only to then bring him into government with you. Same for his fellow travellers. None of his supporters would be welcome - surely.
    Ah, a unicorn.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,210
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    Would you welcome Labour members?
    Yes, provided they are genuine converts rather than entryists, ditto for the sane wing of the Tories.
    Still believing in what moderate Social Democratic Labour folk believe in? Would they need to convert?
    I used to be a member of Labour, so it is not a long journey,but the parties are different.

    I would deal with defections by a case by case basis.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MJW said:

    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    Not gonna happen but if it did, probably a coalition with Labour (and the SNP if required) implementing most of Labour's social and economic policies on the condition Corbyn, Milne and co aren't allowed anywhere near No. 10. Would be perfect, in power and you send the cranks into a marginalised frenzy and reunite Labour as a sensible party again.

    Well , we can dream, eh?

    So exactly the same as staying put, but with less chance of it happening.

    As soon as Labour wins power, assuming a small majority, organised backbenchers become very powerful.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    edited September 2018
    williamglenn said:

    How about a new party which stands in England and Wales only and copies SNP-style progressive policies?

    Is it progressive to stop poor Scottish students having full access to Higher Education? I don't see anything progressive there at all.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    Would you welcome Labour members?
    Yes, provided they are genuine converts rather than entryists, ditto for the sane wing of the Tories.
    Still believing in what moderate Social Democratic Labour folk believe in? Would they need to convert?
    I used to be a member of Labour, so it is not a long journey,but the parties are different.

    I would deal with defections by a case by case basis.
    So what would I need to do? Swear allegiance wearing sandals and socks? Asking for a friend.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,643
    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    There is no doubt that Brexit is the single most important event facing the country at the minute, but being a one trick pony is only going to get you so far. Invisible Vince wasn't much of a circus master.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    oxfordsimon said:

    williamglenn said:

    How about a new party which stands in England and Wales only and copies SNP-style progressive policies?

    Is it progressive to stop poor Scottish students have full access to Higher Education? I don't see anything progressive there at all.
    Delete that word if you don't agree with it.

    My hypothetical party's USP would be that it put the interests of people in England and Wales first and didn't involve itself so much in Palestine or Venezuela, but had centre-left policies rather than being another UKIP.
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,643
    Beverley_C said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    What is the point of ANY of the "big three" parties?
    I'd say we only have a big two now, unless you're including the SNP as one of the three?
    Surely the point of any modern political party is to get elected, and then get reelected? Running the country clearly comes a distant second. Maybe we should all join the Lib Dems, make it a real #peoplesparty and keep the professionals out of the loop?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,210
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    There is no doubt that Brexit is the single most important event facing the country at the minute, but being a one trick pony is only going to get you so far. Invisible Vince wasn't much of a circus master.
    I completely agree.

    I opposed Vince from the start,today convinced me that I was correct.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    edited September 2018
    The Cable plan might just work, but it's premised on two assumptions. Firstly it doesn't have much of an institutional investment to lose. Secondly there isn't anyone within that institution able to take it forward.I would say the second is probably the case. The first I'm not sure.of. I think the Liberal or Lib Dem brand does have some value.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 2,021
    Jonathan said:

    MJW said:

    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    Not gonna happen but if it did, probably a coalition with Labour (and the SNP if required) implementing most of Labour's social and economic policies on the condition Corbyn, Milne and co aren't allowed anywhere near No. 10. Would be perfect, in power and you send the cranks into a marginalised frenzy and reunite Labour as a sensible party again.

    Well , we can dream, eh?

    So exactly the same as staying put, but with less chance of it happening.

    As soon as Labour wins power, assuming a small majority, organised backbenchers become very powerful.
    Not in Corbyn's Labour. The mob is already powerful and will only get more so. Imagine he does win a narrow election - MPs aren't going to be able to turf him out without being utterly destroyed by the Momentum hordes. Plus, there's the moral question.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,210
    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    Would you welcome Labour members?
    Yes, provided they are genuine converts rather than entryists, ditto for the sane wing of the Tories.
    Still believing in what moderate Social Democratic Labour folk believe in? Would they need to convert?
    I used to be a member of Labour, so it is not a long journey,but the parties are different.

    I would deal with defections by a case by case basis.
    So what would I need to do? Swear allegiance wearing sandals and socks? Asking for a friend.
    A sense of humour helps, but is not sufficient in itself.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,392
    Ever since Vince became leader of the LibDems there has been non-stop chatter about the need for a new Centre Party. This suggests that he hasn't been doing a very good job.

    To me it looks like he wants to turn what remains of his party into a true NOTA but draped in an EU flag.

    Their conference needs to tell him where to get off.

    'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for entryism.'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    That seems to be the question Vince Cable is asking too. Hence his plan.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MJW said:

    Jonathan said:

    MJW said:

    Jonathan said:

    So Labour MPs escape they create a centrist party with the Lib Dem’s. It does exceptionally well, gets 50-100 seats and holds the balance of power between the two big parties stuck mid 200s.

    What next?

    Not gonna happen but if it did, probably a coalition with Labour (and the SNP if required) implementing most of Labour's social and economic policies on the condition Corbyn, Milne and co aren't allowed anywhere near No. 10. Would be perfect, in power and you send the cranks into a marginalised frenzy and reunite Labour as a sensible party again.

    Well , we can dream, eh?

    So exactly the same as staying put, but with less chance of it happening.

    As soon as Labour wins power, assuming a small majority, organised backbenchers become very powerful.
    Not in Corbyn's Labour. The mob is already powerful and will only get more so. Imagine he does win a narrow election - MPs aren't going to be able to turf him out without being utterly destroyed by the Momentum hordes. Plus, there's the moral question.
    To pass laws or do anything you need them to vote for you.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Jonathan said:

    In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.

    What a nightmare.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,129
    Debating tips for the modern age...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4q-VbAIMzU&feature=youtu.be
  • twistedfirestopper3twistedfirestopper3 Posts: 2,643
    Jonathan said:

    In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.

    FF43 said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    That seems to be the question Vince Cable is asking too. Hence his plan.
    Not much of a plan, is it? We're shit and we need to parachute some fecker in who can actually engage with the public and come up with something that doesn't involve us chewing off the EU?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,286
    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    There is no doubt that Brexit is the single most important event facing the country at the minute, but being a one trick pony is only going to get you so far. Invisible Vince wasn't much of a circus master.
    I completely agree.

    I opposed Vince from the start,today convinced me that I was correct.
    It just seems he has managed to fail as a leader and decides to come up with a rambling mess of an idea

    Layla Moran seems capable enough but is in a very marginal seat. However she woud be a huge improvement on the old fossil (says an old fossil)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.

    What a nightmare.
    You know how I feel.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    On Robert's point on demographics (which is the economic killer that dare not speak its name) it seems we have three choices: (1) accept ever more anemica growth and taxes on the workers, and a slower rise in living standards (2) mass immigration or (3) more home births.

    After much deliberation I've changed my mind. I think the Government should adopt policies that support and encourage young families and births. This should include greater childcare support, child benefit and parenting/support centres. It also needs to then include more education on base and higher skills. This should be coupled with reforms to encourage those over 65 to work part or full time and contribute. I'd also cut NI for employers and extend it to be a lifelong tax under the header of "social insurance".

    That's the only way I see we can get reasonable growth in the long term without mass immigration.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.

    What a nightmare.
    You know how I feel.
    From someone who I know had some sympathies with Leave a couple of years ago, I know your views are more complex than that.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    That’s not a party, it’s a pressure group. No different to UKIP, Friends of the Earth ornthe Taxpayers’ Alliance. Whinging is easy. Positivism is hard.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    matt said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    That’s not a party, it’s a pressure group. No different to UKIP, Friends of the Earth ornthe Taxpayers’ Alliance. Whinging is easy. Positivism is hard.
    No one is doing positive politics. It’s all anti this or anti that. Politics is eating itself.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,980
    Pulpstar said:

    Debating tips for the modern age...
    ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4q-VbAIMzU&feature=youtu.be

    I wonder how long it will take for the Corbynista to make that go viral without realising it’s a spoof. The young lady teacher with the slight Aussie accent is Chloe Westley from the Taxpayers’ Alliance.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,320
    edited September 2018
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Beverley_C said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    What is the point of ANY of the "big three" parties?
    I'd say we only have a big two now, unless you're including the SNP as one of the three?
    Surely the point of any modern political party is to get elected, and then get reelected? Running the country clearly comes a distant second. Maybe we should all join the Lib Dems, make it a real #peoplesparty and keep the professionals out of the loop?
    The LibDems got themselves elected into government and their supporters never forgave them for it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,210
    edited September 2018
    matt said:

    Foxy said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    At the moment, stopping Brexit via the #peoplesvote. The party has doubled its membership over the last couple of years on that basis.

    There is no consensus on what we are for otherwise.
    That’s not a party, it’s a pressure group. No different to UKIP, Friends of the Earth ornthe Taxpayers’ Alliance. Whinging is easy. Positivism is hard.
    Single issue campaigns have taken over all parties. Brexit for the Tories, #peoplesvote for the LDs, and bizarrely anti-Semitism for Labour. Greens and SNP are self explanatory.

    It's a pile of pants all round.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,286
    I saw some stills from a pro Brexit demo and the hatred on the faces was dreadful. Same hatred as you see from the hard left.

    It is time for the vast majority of normal decent people to rise up and strike this evil from our Country.

    Where has tolerance and decency gone. A new centre ground party would be a good start
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Jonathan said:

    In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.

    FF43 said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    That seems to be the question Vince Cable is asking too. Hence his plan.
    Not much of a plan, is it? We're shit and we need to parachute some fecker in who can actually engage with the public and come up with something that doesn't involve us chewing off the EU?
    I suspect Cable is hoping for a Macron. You can select from the current crop of MPs. To be fair they are decent pavement politicians. Getting elected as a Lib Dem MP is hard work when the natural order is one of the main parties. They are good at potholes but so much on the bigger picture. Heather remains firmly unalight. So you find someone able to articulate an idea that can resonate.and bring new people in. There are plenty reasons why this might not work, aired on his forum. The Devils Advocate would say, what's to lose?
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I saw some stills from a pro Brexit demo and the hatred on the faces was dreadful. Same hatred as you see from the hard left.

    It is time for the vast majority of normal decent people to rise up and strike this evil from our Country.

    Where has tolerance and decency gone. A new centre ground party would be a good start

    It went out the window when after the vote leavers were call thick, racist northerners.
    All this by so called "centre" parties full of moderates.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,286
    Saw a report this morning attacking jet air hand dryers as they spread more germs and bacteria than using paper towels. There is a call to ban them from all hospitals

    When you think about it it does make sense
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    FF43 said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Jonathan said:

    In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.

    FF43 said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    That seems to be the question Vince Cable is asking too. Hence his plan.
    Not much of a plan, is it? We're shit and we need to parachute some fecker in who can actually engage with the public and come up with something that doesn't involve us chewing off the EU?
    I suspect Cable is hoping for a Macron. You can select from the current crop of MPs. To be fair they are decent pavement politicians. Getting elected as a Lib Dem MP is hard work when the natural order is one of the main parties. They are good at potholes but so much on the bigger picture. Heather remains firmly unalight. So you find someone able to articulate an idea that can resonate.and bring new people in. There are plenty reasons why this might not work, aired on his forum. The Devils Advocate would say, what's to lose?
    Macron came from the governing party where he was a popular minister in an unpopular administration. Not sure we have a Macron.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 67,286
    ralphmalph said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I saw some stills from a pro Brexit demo and the hatred on the faces was dreadful. Same hatred as you see from the hard left.

    It is time for the vast majority of normal decent people to rise up and strike this evil from our Country.

    Where has tolerance and decency gone. A new centre ground party would be a good start

    It went out the window when after the vote leavers were call thick, racist northerners.
    All this by so called "centre" parties full of moderates.
    There is no place or excuse for it in society
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,816
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1038128254488641536
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Jonathan said:

    FF43 said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    Jonathan said:

    In another universe, Clegg didn’t enter a coalition in 2010. After the failure of the 2011-2016 Tory govt, Cleggs Lib-Lab coalition are taking us into the Euro.

    FF43 said:

    twistedfirestopper3 said:

    What's the point of the Lib Dems?

    That seems to be the question Vince Cable is asking too. Hence his plan.
    Not much of a plan, is it? We're shit and we need to parachute some fecker in who can actually engage with the public and come up with something that doesn't involve us chewing off the EU?
    I suspect Cable is hoping for a Macron. You can select from the current crop of MPs. To be fair they are decent pavement politicians. Getting elected as a Lib Dem MP is hard work when the natural order is one of the main parties. They are good at potholes but so much on the bigger picture. Heather remains firmly unalight. So you find someone able to articulate an idea that can resonate.and bring new people in. There are plenty reasons why this might not work, aired on his forum. The Devils Advocate would say, what's to lose?
    Macron came from the governing party where he was a popular minister in an unpopular administration. Not sure we have a Macron.
    And is now very unpopular.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I saw some stills from a pro Brexit demo and the hatred on the faces was dreadful. Same hatred as you see from the hard left.

    It is time for the vast majority of normal decent people to rise up and strike this evil from our Country.

    Where has tolerance and decency gone. A new centre ground party would be a good start

    A new centre party?

    Wash your mouth out with soap. You're a Conservative Party member.
This discussion has been closed.

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