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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the Labour Party would split – and why it won’t

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,126

    I did, and I think you have to try quite hard to interpret it as we should kick out anti-Semites unless they oppose the occupation of Palestine", but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    There were two clauses in a scenario where there are multiple options. You have to try quite hard to gloss over those other options. ;)

    Besides, as Jezziah shows, it's quite hard for Corbynites to see anti-Semitism when it is in their own faction of the party...
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,027

    Momentum won't last. Started by Lansman to run Jeremy's 1st leadership campaign its now supposed to be "People's Momentum" by the members for the members. But its STILL owned by Lansman and he is now public enemy number one having betrayed the movement by binning Willsman. Without any semblance of a leader you then get regional and sub-regional committees organising themselves, and that already makes it very patchy nationally. I know that Momentum has had an impact in some places, in others its barely there.

    I do understand your points about a new messiah and I had shared them until this summer. But now its gone way beyond sanity - Corbyn has been propelled into sainthood as uniquely right all the time, the man who has never been wrong. Yes, Popes get replaced. The problem for the cult now is that nobody else can ever be anything more than a pale imitation of the great man. And besides which is Lansman can become the enemy then any of them can. Who is there who can replace Him? Even if the rules end up as 5% of MPs to nominate with whom do you replace Him?

    My money remains firmly on Emily Thornberry. Who isn't a cult member.

    No longer a member so don't have any first hand experience but to what extent has the membership been taken over by bods from the myriad far left groups that used to oppose Labour? Friends have told me that the party now has some very strange bedfellows. I can understand some of the young new momentum types drifting off but have the far left seen their chance to control the party maintain a long-term grip on it? Be genuinely interested in your take on that
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    Looks about right to me.

    I'm still firmly expecting a deal to be done. The fury from the committed Leavers at the deal will be of tsunami proportions.
    There's probably quite a bit of (as you liked to put it in another context) "You grunt, I'll groan."
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    F1: still markets missing from Ladbrokes. Including, weirdly, fastest qualifier (pole). Hmm. Anyway, keeping one eye on it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    stodge said:

    Your experience is or was slightly different to mine but no less valid. I think the Dimbleby Lecture by Jenkins started the ball rolling for a number of non-political people but politics was different and the personalities seemed bigger at the time.

    I think your final point is hugely valid - unless you have a truly inspirational and charismatic leader the whole has to be greater than the sum of the parts. For all that he did and all that has been said since, Owen's addition to the Gang of Four was pivotal in pushing the Limehouse Declaration beyond narrow confines.

    IF the founders of a new SDP included a Soubry or someone from the Conservative side it would instantly transform its prospects. Plenty on here will write off Soubry but she represents a strain of opinion in the Conservative Party which while marginalised now still exists.
    There is no question that Jenkins was the intellectual heft behind the new party. A brilliant Home Secretary, a successful Chancellor and the former President of the European Commission, it was only his courtesy and modesty that stopped him from being totally dominant. Those of us from a wet Tory background rather liked the harder edge Owen gave and Shirley was such a good speaker she was worth waiting and waiting for. I am sure Bill had some good points too.

    I agree that any new party cannot simply be New Labour2. It needs to reach beyond the Labour Party to become truly centrist. That means some of the Euro enthusiasts still in the Conservatives and those in the Lib Dems. Agreeing a distinct platform for such a party is going to be difficult.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780



    The problem with Long-Bailey is "who?". Political leaders need umph. She has none.

    Before Corbyn I would have agreed with you.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    TOPPING said:

    I think we need a thread by @TheJezziah.

    His/hers is a real and influential voice in politics today.

    As soon as we find someone who shares that username capable of writing a thread up to the standards of other thread writers I shall second that suggestion.

    I did, and I think you have to try quite hard to interpret it as we should kick out anti-Semites unless they oppose the occupation of Palestine", but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    For clarity we should kick out anti-Semites regardless of their views on Palestine or anything else, you (Edmund) are correct in your interpretation.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,163
    stodge said:

    Your experience is or was slightly different to mine but no less valid. I think the Dimbleby Lecture by Jenkins started the ball rolling for a number of non-political people but politics was different and the personalities seemed bigger at the time.

    I think your final point is hugely valid - unless you have a truly inspirational and charismatic leader the whole has to be greater than the sum of the parts. For all that he did and all that has been said since, Owen's addition to the Gang of Four was pivotal in pushing the Limehouse Declaration beyond narrow confines.

    IF the founders of a new SDP included a Soubry or someone from the Conservative side it would instantly transform its prospects. Plenty on here will write off Soubry but she represents a strain of opinion in the Conservative Party which while marginalised now still exists.
    The original SDP included a Tory defector (Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler). Did it make much difference? I doubt it. For something similar to appear a genuinely centrist option rather than labour split, I think you'd need (1) the number of Tory MPs defecting to be not completely swamped by ex-Labour ones, and (2) defections at a proportional seniority - which if an SDP2 attracted a fair number of ex-Cab/ShadCab members, means attracting at least one Tory ex-cabinet minister.

    I don't think that's at all likely.

    The grand strategy of an SDP2 should be to shunt rLab so far left that the splitters occupies the space Labour always did, rather than merging with the LDs one way or another and trying to squash in between Con and rLab. To that end, focussing on Con defectors is a distraction.

    I appreciate that from a partisan point of view, this analysis helps the Tories, so I'm not without an interest. I still think it's right though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370
    DavidL said:

    There is no question that Jenkins was the intellectual heft behind the new party. A brilliant Home Secretary, a successful Chancellor and the former President of the European Commission, it was only his courtesy and modesty that stopped him from being totally dominant. Those of us from a wet Tory background rather liked the harder edge Owen gave and Shirley was such a good speaker she was worth waiting and waiting for. I am sure Bill had some good points too.

    I agree that any new party cannot simply be New Labour2. It needs to reach beyond the Labour Party to become truly centrist. That means some of the Euro enthusiasts still in the Conservatives and those in the Lib Dems. Agreeing a distinct platform for such a party is going to be difficult.
    The SDP had everything going for them, except the most important thing of all. Luck.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,392


    There won't be a purge or deselections. The cult is demanding a full open selection process in every seat hoping that will bring about the removal of most sitting MPs. There are several similar proposals to this effect which will be composited and put to conference. I expect it will pass. And when it does what will change?

    In almost every CLP with a Labour MP they will walk reselection. Most members are inactive - they pay us money every month (thanks!), they will vote for leader if there is another "chicken coup" but thats it. The active members are mostly the ones who have been there for decades, and even the newer activists aren't spending their time agitating against sitting MPs and councillors. Yes there are exceptions to the rule such as Harringey, but most will be fine.

    I live as you know in East Ham which is probably one of the strongest CLPs out there.

    At the recent local elections, there was a churn of about a third in the Labour Group with de-selections, reselections and retirements while the big development was the ousting of Sir Robin Wales (the Mayor) in a ballot of Labour members in favour of Rokhsana Fiaz. Sir Robin had been around for years and was firmly in the Blairite camp so I'd agree the Party has moved.

    Parties do that - the Liberal and then Liberal Democrat Party I joined died in the fire of the Coalition. Somewhere between two thirds and three quarters of the members of the LDs now joined after 2015 - they are very different and that will change the character of the party in time.

    I don't know about the Conservatives - I do get a sense the members who joined in the latter part of the Blair/Brown years are different from those who lived through the Thatcher/Major years. I think Cameron embodied a renaissance of conservatism among 30 and 40 somethings in the mid noughties as a response perhaps to Iraq and the nature of Blair in particular.
  • daodaodaodao Posts: 821

    Except he didn't. I'm actually a Zionist myself (which traditionally is defined as believing that Israel should exist and be protected, although some use it to support illegal West Bank settlement and other policies), and I was on the executive of Labour Friends of Israel, but I think the claims by some who should know better that anti-Zionism is the same as anti-Semitism are ridiculous. Anti-Zionism is an opinion about the Middle East. Anti-semitism is hatred of individuals and communities in Britain. In 40 years of acquaintance, I've never heard Corbyn express hatred for anyone at all.

    In particular, the belief of both keen Zionists and real anti-semites that all Jews identify with Israel (and therefore that being hostile to Israel and in particular to Israeli expansion is the same thing as being hostile to Jews) is itself anti-semitic. Why should all Jewish people hold any particular opinion? They don't.

    But I think we've got as far as we're going to with that particular debate - people either believe he is or he isn't, and it's got way beyond the point where accepting the ILHR examples etc. will make any difference. In my opinion he should make one more speech on the issue and conclude by saying that as party leader and potential PM he now has to concentrate on other issues and will not be commenting further (FWIW I don't plan to either). I think all this is a huge oppportunity cost for Labour and our ratings will decline further until we stop giving the issue oxygen by constantly trying to resolve it - and I think that's why some, though not all, of the critics want to prolong it.



    +10
  • OllyT said:

    No longer a member so don't have any first hand experience but to what extent has the membership been taken over by bods from the myriad far left groups that used to oppose Labour? Friends have told me that the party now has some very strange bedfellows. I can understand some of the young new momentum types drifting off but have the far left seen their chance to control the party maintain a long-term grip on it? Be genuinely interested in your take on that

    We've had entryism but its a small scale problem. The vast majority of new members are genuinely new to politics from what I have seen. The problem with the small number of nutters is that they are vocal and organised. But they are also stupid - they genuinely think their views are the only views. Which makes it very difficult for them to carry the opinions of the rest of the membership.

    Even within Momentum, the "People's Momentum" crap has meant that instead of a few entryists running the show they actually have to have votes and that means new enthusiasts in charge rather than crazies.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,111

    I have been out but just have to respond to this

    You have no idea of how it works. If you are an Englishman you are an Englishman to the Scots no matter how long you have been in Scotland

    I lived and worked in Edinburgh for 5 years then married a Scot from Lossiemouth and I am always an Englishman to my family (even though a half Welsh). Indeed when speaking of me one of my wife's Aunts was overheard saying

    'You know he is an Englishman, but he is not so bad'

    You really need to understand you do not understand the Scots
    A wonderful story is told of a Victorian Wee Free preacher preaching on Galatians 5:13-15. The preacher decided to define neighbour. 'Does it just mean our fellows here in Scotland? No! It means the Arab in his desert, the African in his tribe, the Chinaman in his far palace, and the Turk in his Empire.'

    Pause.

    'Yea, even the very Englishman is our neighbour too.'
  • In all this furore over Corbyn has anyone noticed that TM is just getting on with being Prime Minister. Her Africa trip seems to be receiving quite a few compliments including from Bill Gates and she is talking up UK business post Brexit in a big way

    In the meantime Barnier seems to have been on the road to Damascus with a marked friendly and co-operative attitude, Dominic Raab seems to have recovered from his rather sweaty news conference and David Lidington quietly gets on with negotiations as the de facto deputy PM

    Compared to David Davis and Boris Johnson there does now appear to a be a professional team in charge, backed up by Olly Robbins, and the prize for TM will almost certainly be a deal by the late Autumn

    The hard brexiteers and remainers will not like it but in the end the Country will be relieved and indeed TM could well see a further improvement in her ratings

    While all this is going on and TM still has her faults I for one am pleased she is our Prime Minister and expect he to see out 2019 but at sometime she will stand down before the election, probably with a reasonable legacy. Much better I expect than most anyone could have predicted
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    Sean_F said:

    The SDP had everything going for them, except the most important thing of all. Luck.
    It was a one off experience but it did teach a young DavidL how incredibly hard it is to start a party from scratch and make it effective. It might be easier in these days of social media and mobile phones or it might be harder, I am not sure. Certainly co-ordination in those days was an incredible challenge.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096

    Thank you (for the nice bit)

    Claiming that Jewish people rule the world, or any similarly minded trains of thought is racist. More than that it is stupid, although obviously racist is the worst part.

    Complete with the artists description the anti-Semitism was visible my main contention without it it does simply look like a group of white guys, if I remember rightly there was some argument until the artist released his description, which claimed that two were Jewish and If I remember rightly there were 4 at the table so 2 were not and they all look pretty similar I couldn't for me the life of me do better than a random guess for which ones are Jewish and which ones are not.

    The figures are bankers Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Warburg, industrialist Carnegie and occultist Aleister Crowley.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245
    daodao said:

    +10
    Been out collecting up postal votes have you?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Interesting, and in my view at least, conflicting opinions from the 2 Davids on SPD 2. DavidL it has to be truly centrist, David Herdson it has to replace Labour by shoving it out the way.

    From an electoral success POV I think David Herdson is right, trying to fit between the 2 major parties, even if they are perceived as being far apart and get the middle ground is just probably not going to work.

    Even if you can get around all the problems and get the eqaulish ex Labour and ex Tory so you can look like a mixture rather than just a split off from one of the parties you would have to work minor miracles just to end up with the same result as the SDP of an impressive vote share but beaten in almost every seat by one of the parties.

    Although I don't actually see how you shove Labour off to the left and take their ground either, a new party could happen and could retain seats maybe even win some but I just really can't see it getting anywhere in any major way, the SDP who ultimately failed seem to have much more going for them.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    Pulpstar said:

    The figures are bankers Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Warburg, industrialist Carnegie and occultist Aleister Crowley.
    Rothschild of course being the 'bogey man/keyword' which comes up time and time again.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,126

    As soon as we find someone who shares that username capable of writing a thread up to the standards of other thread writers I shall second that suggestion. For clarity we should kick out anti-Semites regardless of their views on Palestine or anything else, you (Edmund) are correct in your interpretation.
    But if the party shares your incapacity to actually see blatant anti-Semitism (witness that picture as one example), then there is little hope of that, is there?

    It will be:
    "Hang on, this fellow is a good fellow traveller. It's obvious his comments were not anti-Semitic as he's a good fellow traveller, and therefore must have been anti-Zionist comments instead."

    That is where the IHRA comes in useful, and it's odd that Labour think it's necessary to water them down.
  • ydoethur said:

    A wonderful story is told of a Victorian Wee Free preacher preaching on Galatians 5:13-15. The preacher decided to define neighbour. 'Does it just mean our fellows here in Scotland? No! It means the Arab in his desert, the African in his tribe, the Chinaman in his far palace, and the Turk in his Empire.'

    Pause.

    'Yea, even the very Englishman is our neighbour too.'
    Spot on. I have been close to Scotland most of my life having moved to Berwick on Tweed in 1954 and well remember in those days Wendy Wood (the then Alex Salmond) used to appear in the early hours of the morning and draw a line over middle of the border bridge and mark SCOTLAND on the north side. As it was cleaned off she would repeat it from time to time. Of course Berwick has changed hands between Scotland and England 13 times
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,245

    The original SDP included a Tory defector (Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler). Did it make much difference? I doubt it. For something similar to appear a genuinely centrist option rather than labour split, I think you'd need (1) the number of Tory MPs defecting to be not completely swamped by ex-Labour ones, and (2) defections at a proportional seniority - which if an SDP2 attracted a fair number of ex-Cab/ShadCab members, means attracting at least one Tory ex-cabinet minister.

    I don't think that's at all likely.

    The grand strategy of an SDP2 should be to shunt rLab so far left that the splitters occupies the space Labour always did, rather than merging with the LDs one way or another and trying to squash in between Con and rLab. To that end, focussing on Con defectors is a distraction.

    I appreciate that from a partisan point of view, this analysis helps the Tories, so I'm not without an interest. I still think it's right though.

    I was told a very interesting story by another MP as to why Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler was the only Tory MP to join the SDP.....

    He then joined Blair's New Labour in 1996.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    There is a dearth of talent in politics at the moment - I think all would agree that. But if you are centre-left and interested in going into politics - are you REALLY going to put your heart and soul into working to get Corbyn elected?

    I think Labour will bleed what talent it has, and it won't be replaced - other than by those very happy to hitch their wagon to Corbyn cultism. In ten years time it will just be a party of loons and losers.
    On the other side of the fence the same holds true for charlatans such as Rees-Mogg or Johnson.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,151
    daodao said:

    +10
    I want to hear that speech. I want him to explain what exactly he means when he says he is not zionist and I particularly want to hear what the foreign policy of a government with him as PM will be wrt Israel and Middle East.

    Despite all the heat and noise, am I none the wiser what will happen under a Lab government wrt to foreign policy.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,647


    As soon as we find someone who shares that username capable of writing a thread up to the standards of other thread writers I shall second that suggestion.

    Rubbish - you are well able to do that right now. Speaking as a relative thread header writer newbie, I can also say that it focuses your mind on the validity of the point you are making as you know sods like all the PB contributors will be looking to tear it apart at the earliest opportunity.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    I want to hear that speech. I want him to explain what exactly he means when he says he is not zionist and I particularly want to hear what the foreign policy of a government with him as PM will be wrt Israel and Middle East.

    Despite all the heat and noise, am I none the wiser what will happen under a Lab government wrt to foreign policy.
    The sort of thing that the Shadow Foreign Secretary might be setting out? It's not obvious and that may be because the SFS has not been told?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    In all this furore over Corbyn has anyone noticed that TM is just getting on with being Prime Minister. Her Africa trip seems to be receiving quite a few compliments including from Bill Gates and she is talking up UK business post Brexit in a big way

    In the meantime Barnier seems to have been on the road to Damascus with a marked friendly and co-operative attitude, Dominic Raab seems to have recovered from his rather sweaty news conference and David Lidington quietly gets on with negotiations as the de facto deputy PM

    Compared to David Davis and Boris Johnson there does now appear to a be a professional team in charge, backed up by Olly Robbins, and the prize for TM will almost certainly be a deal by the late Autumn

    The hard brexiteers and remainers will not like it but in the end the Country will be relieved and indeed TM could well see a further improvement in her ratings

    While all this is going on and TM still has her faults I for one am pleased she is our Prime Minister and expect he to see out 2019 but at sometime she will stand down before the election, probably with a reasonable legacy. Much better I expect than most anyone could have predicted

    quite so Mr G

    the deadline has focussed minds and toned down the rhetoric

    it simply puts in context the old saying nobody knows and everybody lies, which roughly sums up the commentary on Brexit for the last 2 years
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,623
    OllyT said:

    No longer a member so don't have any first hand experience but to what extent has the membership been taken over by bods from the myriad far left groups that used to oppose Labour? Friends have told me that the party now has some very strange bedfellows. I can understand some of the young new momentum types drifting off but have the far left seen their chance to control the party maintain a long-term grip on it? Be genuinely interested in your take on that
    My experience in Leeds was that an organisation outside of the Labour Party was able to organise its members to join Labour, mobilise them to attend a selection meeting and ensure that their preferred candidates were selected for the council elections.

    I'm not talking about Momentum, I'm talking about the local Mosque.
  • TOPPING said:

    Rubbish - you are well able to do that right now. Speaking as a relative thread header writer newbie, I can also say that it focuses your mind on the validity of the point you are making as you know sods like all the PB contributors will be looking to tear it apart at the earliest opportunity.
    I hope not everyone on PB wants to tear apart a thought through contribution even if you do not share the contributors politics

    Indeed I like to think in general I get on quite well on here with quite a few posters who are not conservatives
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,235



    While all this is going on and TM still has her faults I for one am pleased she is our Prime Minister and expect he to see out 2019 but at sometime she will stand down before the election, probably with a reasonable legacy. Much better I expect than most anyone could have predicted

    She'll probably win Strictly as well.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    She'll probably win Strictly as well.
    Now I think that is pushing it a bit far but she certainly dances better than I can !!!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    edited August 2018
    Yougov reports a similiar gender split, albeit they hav the Swedish Democrats generally higher
    Sweden, Sifo poll:
    Women
    V-LEFT: 13%
    SD-ECR: 11%
    Men
    SD-ECR: 27%
    V: 9%
    Field work: 23/08/18 – 28/08/18
    Sample size: 2,928
    #val2018 #svpol #valet2018

    The male-female split on the Swedish Democrats is astounding.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TOPPING said:

    Rubbish - you are well able to do that right now. Speaking as a relative thread header writer newbie, I can also say that it focuses your mind on the validity of the point you are making as you know sods like all the PB contributors will be looking to tear it apart at the earliest opportunity.
    I'd encourage everyone to have a go at writing a thread header, whatever their politics. The good news is that you soon realise that most people usually reply to the thread that they think you have written rather than the one that you actually have written, which takes the pressure off quite a bit.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,623
    Dura_Ace said:

    She'll probably win Strictly as well.
    Maybe she can persuade BoJo to do I'm a Celebrity?
  • quite so Mr G

    the deadline has focussed minds and toned down the rhetoric

    it simply puts in context the old saying nobody knows and everybody lies, which roughly sums up the commentary on Brexit for the last 2 years
    The problem is despite all the positive rhetoric, we're still no closer to solving the Northern Ireland border problem.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959

    I was told a very interesting story by another MP as to why Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler was the only Tory MP to join the SDP.....

    He then joined Blair's New Labour in 1996.
    To me, that was ultimately the fatal flaw in the SDP. All of its leadership came from the left. If they had attracted the likes of Jim Prior from the wets I think they would have formed at least one government but he stayed put. It is why I disagree with David Herdson. A Labour only split now might help the Tories but it won't offer an alternative government.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,111

    Maybe she can persuade BoJo to do I'm a Celebrity?
    As long as they leave off the subtitle, I think many people would be very happy to see that...
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited August 2018
    ydoethur said:

    I have never quite understood why History teachers, of whom there are five for every four places, should be rated the same in salary terms as physics or maths teachers, where every one teacher can have their pick of five places. We have some freedoms over our pay structure and I believe that after some nifty footwork by the SLT I am paid less than our sole specialist physics teacher. Since he is worth his weight in gold, I have taken care not to know or create a fuss about this.

    We already have different structures for bursaries, golden hellos etc for these people - why not extend it to salary?

    I suppose the only possible issue is that if we compared it with the salaries physics graduates could earn in industry, banking or academia, schools would struggle to fund them.
    My experience working at Cheltenham is that targeted pay is ineffective, though of course our good people could easily quintuple their package by moving to one of the tech giants (when I 'retired', my next role paid about triple, but I was a washed up has-been at 50 ;) ).

    My wife was a teacher, but retired this year and it was the sheer out-of-class workload and administrivia that decided her, rather than the pay (which, while modest by professional standards was pretty good for the provinces).

    There needs to be a serious, and I mean serious, effort to make sure teachers are only doing their core job. Recruit more support staff to do the analysis and measuring, if our obsession with constantly weighing pigs must be indulged.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Thanks to Rochdale Pioneers for an excellent article. He expresses the dilemma of the sane wing of the Labour Party very well.

    What I think might be missing from his analysis is the sheer moral incongruity of remaining in the Labour Party under Corbyn - with fellow-travellers claiming a blatantly anti-Semitic mural can't be anti-Semitic because Corbyn liked it. How much moral crap like this are decent Labour supporters prepared to accept? It doesn't all come down to political calculation, there's a moral and principles aspect as well.

    Of course, if like RP you think this is a temporary aberration in the party, you might well conclude that it's better to stay and fight for Labour to return to its roots as a mainstream political party. However, as I wrote in my article of a few days ago, from the other side of the political divide it doesn't look likely to me at least that this is going to happen anytime soon, except possibly if Corbyn leads Labour to a massive defeat at the next election. Even then there's no guarantee.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767

    The problem is despite all the positive rhetoric, we're still no closer to solving the Northern Ireland border problem.
    Miraculously one will now appear,

    NI was only ever a negotiation ploy as it was a UK pressure point. In the scale of EU\UK trading its about 0,6 % of total trade. You dont base an agreement on the margins,
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited August 2018

    But if the party shares your incapacity to actually see blatant anti-Semitism (witness that picture as one example), then there is little hope of that, is there?

    It will be:
    "Hang on, this fellow is a good fellow traveller. It's obvious his comments were not anti-Semitic as he's a good fellow traveller, and therefore must have been anti-Zionist comments instead."

    That is where the IHRA comes in useful, and it's odd that Labour think it's necessary to water them down.
    Actually we adopted it, it is only examples related to Israel which we didn't, which is were the anti-Semitism anti Palestinian occupation part comes in. Happy to kick out anti-Semites, not happy to kick people out because they oppose the occupation of Palestine.

    You'll be relieved to know (almost as relieved as I am) that I shall be nowhere near disciplinary or dispute panels, I value my sanity far too much.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    I'd encourage everyone to have a go at writing a thread header, whatever their politics. The good news is that you soon realise that most people usually reply to the thread that they think you have written rather than the one that you actually have written, which takes the pressure off quite a bit.
    The most difficult bit in my experience is keeping it short. Mike is brilliant at writing pithy headers.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    matt said:

    On the other side of the fence the same holds true for charlatans such as Rees-Mogg or Johnson.
    While I share your dim view of JRM and BoJo, neither of them are any where near the levers of power in the party, as is right and proper. Of course, both represent the King-across-the-water to some Tory Jacobites, but I think the consensus is that neither really represent an improvement on May. Which is sad, now I think of it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,099

    The most difficult bit in my experience is keeping it short. Mike is brilliant at writing pithy headers.
    Absolutely. He makes it look very easy.

    It isn’t.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795
    The basic rule is in FPTP there is only room for two main parties. Any third party has to kill one of the others to succeed.

    So the analysis is right, the only way a centerist party would thrieve is if it quickly supplanted 'Labour' as the party of the left, which is highly unlikely given it's history and strength of brand.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,126

    Actually we adopted it, it is only examples related to Israel which we didn't, which is were the anti-Semitism anti Palestinian occupation part comes in. Happy to kick out anti-Semites, not happy to kick people out because they oppose the occupation of Palestine.

    You'll be relieved to know (almost as relieved as I am) that I shall be nowhere near disciplinary or dispute panels, I value my sanity far too much.
    No, Labour adopted it in part: and the parts you missed out are telling. It allows exactly the same confusion that you repeatedly fall into to occur. The examples were there for a reason.

    I'm glad you won't be on any panel, as you're evidently unable to detect anti-Semitism when it is staring you in your face.
  • I'm a better batsman than Keaton Jennings.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Keaton Jennings you ****
  • Actually we adopted it, it is only examples related to Israel which we didn't, which is were the anti-Semitism anti Palestinian occupation part comes in. Happy to kick out anti-Semites, not happy to kick people out because they oppose the occupation of Palestine.

    You'll be relieved to know (almost as relieved as I am) that I shall be nowhere near disciplinary or dispute panels, I value my sanity far too much.
    The IHRA definition clearly says "Criticism of Israel similar to that leveled against any other country cannot be regarded as antisemitic." So what's the problem? Which Israel example is unreasonable in that context and why?
  • I'd encourage as many PBers to submit threads for publication.

    This afternoon's thread for example discusses diverse subjects as electoral voting systems and dominatrices.
  • The problem is despite all the positive rhetoric, we're still no closer to solving the Northern Ireland border problem.
    Looks as even with that a compromise is in the offing
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    No, Labour adopted it in part: and the parts you missed out are telling. It allows exactly the same confusion that you repeatedly fall into to occur. The examples were there for a reason.

    I'm glad you won't be on any panel, as you're evidently unable to detect anti-Semitism when it is staring you in your face.
    We adopted all of it but examples that related to Israel as criticism of a country is radically different from criticism of a group of people by their race or religion. The latter is racism, the former is not.

    Similar to my reasons to be glad you are not in the Labour party then, someone who is so readily accepting of Islamophobia has no place in Labour.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    In all this furore over Corbyn has anyone noticed that TM is just getting on with being Prime Minister. Her Africa trip seems to be receiving quite a few compliments including from Bill Gates and she is talking up UK business post Brexit in a big way

    Shush! The children are squabbling in the playground.....meanwhile European Heads of government are starting to pay attention and the Brexit negotiations will move from the "technical" to the "political", M. Barnier's star is setting slowly and the Fudge Factory is cranking up production.....the EU has enough fires of its own without wanting to start an almighty blaze on its western flank.....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,237
    edited August 2018

    Crowdfunder T&Cs:

    Crowdfunder is not appropriate for:
    Projects that involve loans, investments, equity, shares, or anything relating to a criminal investigation.


    https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/help/guidelines/

    Isn't there currently a Criminal Investigation into the allegations against Mr Salmond? Whether anything comes of them, we don't know, but Police Scotland are involved.

    I know his appeal is for funds to support a challenge to the process the Scottish government followed - but the Crowdfunder Condition anything related is very broad.....and his appeal relates to something relating to a criminal investigation.....

    I'd say that someone would have to make a complaint, and then we would see.

    Salmond's claim for the Judicial Review is (quoting the beeboids):

    "Mr Salmond claims that the subsequent investigation into the allegations against him by senior Scottish government civil servants was "unfair and unjust".

    He said he had been given no opportunity to "see and therefore to properly challenge the case against me" and that he had "not been allowed to see the evidence"."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-45333462

    Access to the accusations made against you, and to know the identity of your accusers, is a basic point of natural justice / legal principle, and on those points he is correct to question the process.

    The last thing we need is organisations (whether Universities or the Scottish Government) running their own kangaroo courts without proper process or representation. We all know about Obama's Title IX shambles in the US education system.

    So on this one I support Salmond's right to launch a Judicial Review. Not so clear on the Crowd Funding, though.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,132

    I'd encourage as many PBers to submit threads for publication.

    This afternoon's thread for example discusses diverse subjects as electoral voting systems and dominatrices.

    Natalie Rowe's doing a header on AV?!

    Oh Louise..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,395
    Mr. Eagles, I regular condemn you for your many failures on historical understanding, so kudos for the correct pluralisation of 'dominatrix'.

    Although it does make me wonder if many an apex means 'apices'.
  • Absolutely. He makes it look very easy.

    It isn’t.
    Indeed. I had to cut whole paragraphs out of this piece...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,237

    It's perfectly possible to oppose the occupation of Palestine and be an anti-Semite. What would you do about such people?
    They won't kick out the antisemites, because that would require the upper reaches of the party to be purged of a huge swathe of Corbyn's supporters and comrades-for-decades, and probably Corbyn himself.

    That is why they will need some effective loopholes in their antisemitism definition even if they adopt the full IHRA wording, through which many Corbynistas can wriggle.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    edited August 2018

    The IHRA definition clearly says "Criticism of Israel similar to that leveled against any other country cannot be regarded as antisemitic." So what's the problem? Which Israel example is unreasonable in that context and why?
    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/anti-semitism-theresa-may-new-definition-jewish-council-holocaust-society-israel-criticism-palestine-a7470166.html

    This gives example of criticism of Israel being shut down and other places were the definition has run into problems on the basis of the conflation of anti-Semitism with criticism of Israel.

    I believe the original author has even stated concerns about it being used for that purpose.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,237
    edited August 2018
    @RP

    Interesting piece, thanks.

    I'd forgotten that the gang of Four had been put on appropriately sized boxes such that they were all the same height.
  • We adopted all of it but examples that related to Israel as criticism of a country is radically different from criticism of a group of people by their race or religion. The latter is racism, the former is not.

    Similar to my reasons to be glad you are not in the Labour party then, someone who is so readily accepting of Islamophobia has no place in Labour.
    Again criticism of Israel is specifically permitted within the definition. Criticism of Israel similar to that leveled against any other country cannot be regarded as antisemitic.

    So which example is unreasonable in that context?
  • Mr. Eagles, I regular condemn you for your many failures on historical understanding, so kudos for the correct pluralisation of 'dominatrix'.

    Although it does make me wonder if many an apex means 'apices'.

    I have an A* in GCSE Latin.

    Coupled with an A in A Level History.

    That's when exams were hard and marking was even harder.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    MattW said:

    Access to the accusations made against you, and to know the identity of your accusers, is a basic point of natural justice / legal principle, and on those points he is correct to question the process.
    Agree everyone involved deserves justice - but I also worry about organisations 'investigating' complaints themselves before deciding to go to the Police (if at all) - see the Catholic Church.

    Why did it take 8 months, to conclude the police should be involved? Surely that's a matter for the Police to decide?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    edited August 2018
    Excellent article by @RochdalePioneers – many thanks to him.

    I'd broadly agree with his wait it out strategy. But my concern is 'how long'?

    Regarding Emily vs Rebecca – I agree it is likely to come down to a straight fight between these two ladies.

    Obviously they represent quite different constituencies, both literally and metaphorically.

    Rebecca is the left's starlet and will appeal to northern and working class wing of the party, whereas Emily is the standard bearer of Metropolitana.

    However, I think Emily probably outfoxes Rebecca in a leadership contest – although Rebecca, a self-made solicitor, is much brighter than many give her credit for. The blonde barmaid casting she receives on here is unkind and ungallant but in some way is part of her appeal to Labour's traditional wing.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    Again criticism of Israel is specifically permitted within the definition. Criticism of Israel similar to that leveled against any other country cannot be regarded as antisemitic.

    So which example is unreasonable in that context?
    I replied to you above.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    edited August 2018

    Shush! The children are squabbling in the playground.....meanwhile European Heads of government are starting to pay attention and the Brexit negotiations will move from the "technical" to the "political", M. Barnier's star is setting slowly and the Fudge Factory is cranking up production.....the EU has enough fires of its own without wanting to start an almighty blaze on its western flank.....
    quite

    it has been a consistent feature of the last 2 years that while the UK media scream Brexit stories they are rarely mirrored in the european press. Europeans have enough on their plate and just want the deed done.

    Today Figaro is going with Macron bewailing the French, Die Welt and FAZ are going with Chemnitz and Islam and the Paddies are going with Dublin versus Tyrone on Sunday.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096

    I have an A* in GCSE Latin.

    Coupled with an A in A Level History.

    That's when exams were hard and marking was even harder.
    Exams weren't particularly hard back around 1996.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    Shush! The children are squabbling in the playground.....meanwhile European Heads of government are starting to pay attention and the Brexit negotiations will move from the "technical" to the "political", M. Barnier's star is setting slowly and the Fudge Factory is cranking up production.....the EU has enough fires of its own without wanting to start an almighty blaze on its western flank.....
    I tend to agree with this analysis.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,126

    We adopted all of it but examples that related to Israel as criticism of a country is radically different from criticism of a group of people by their race or religion. The latter is racism, the former is not.

    Similar to my reasons to be glad you are not in the Labour party then, someone who is so readily accepting of Islamophobia has no place in Labour.
    "someone who is so readily accepting of Islamophobia"

    Wow. Just wow.

    Go on, give examples please, because now you're just being really, really stupid. And nasty.
  • https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/anti-semitism-theresa-may-new-definition-jewish-council-holocaust-society-israel-criticism-palestine-a7470166.html

    This gives example of criticism of Israel being shut down and other places were the definition has run into problems on the basis of the conflation of anti-Semitism with criticism of Israel.

    I believe the original author has even stated concerns about it being used for that purpose.
    Actually that gives details about one universities interpretation of a different (but similar) definition. That's not the same thing. The examples are here and they make it explicitly clear that criticism of Israel is permissible: https://www.holocaustremembrance.com/working-definition-antisemitism

    So which example do you have an issue with?

    Do you have a problem with: "Accusing the Jews as a people, or Israel as a state, of inventing or exaggerating the Holocaust"?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840

    "someone who is so readily accepting of Islamophobia"

    Wow. Just wow.

    Go on, give examples please, because now you're just being really, really stupid. And nasty.
    You. Voted. Conservative. At. The. Last. Election.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    Root is a very lucky boy. Hopefully he can take advantage.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Mr. Eagles, I regular condemn you for your many failures on historical understanding, so kudos for the correct pluralisation of 'dominatrix'.

    Although it does make me wonder if many an apex means 'apices'.

    My dictionary reckons either apices or apexes are okay. I’ve seen both used in the context of motorsport.

    Speaking of which, I know it’s a boring bet but 1.89 for Vettel to be on the top step of the Monza podium on Sunday afternoon seems value even this far out.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,766

    Actually we adopted it, it is only examples related to Israel which we didn't, which is were the anti-Semitism anti Palestinian occupation part comes in. Happy to kick out anti-Semites, not happy to kick people out because they oppose the occupation of Palestine.

    You'll be relieved to know (almost as relieved as I am) that I shall be nowhere near disciplinary or dispute panels, I value my sanity far too much.
    You are an apologist for Britain's first anti-Semitic major party leader of modern times. He is nothing short of a disgrace, and all right-thinking people should unequivocally condemn what he said, and the racist actions of many of his followers. Anti-Semitism is racism, ergo the once great Labour Party is currently headed by a racist bigot, nothing less.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281

    You. Voted. Conservative. At. The. Last. Election.
    What was 'Islamophobic' about the Conservative manifesto?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    Anazina said:

    Excellent article by @RochdalePioneers – many thanks to him.

    I'd broadly agree with his wait it out strategy. But my concern is 'how long'?

    Regarding Emily vs Rebecca – I agree it is likely to come down to a straight fight between these two ladies.

    Obviously they represent quite different constituencies, both literally and metaphorically.

    Rebecca is the left's starlet and will appeal to northern and working class wing of the party, whereas Emily is the standard bearer of Metropolitana.

    However, I think Emily probably outfoxes Rebecca in a leadership contest – although Rebecca, a self-made solicitor, is much brighter than many give her credit for. The blonde barmaid casting she receives on here is unkind and ungallant but in some way is part of her appeal to Labour's traditional wing.

    Not having a go at you personally, but there does seem to be some wishful thinking. How is it that on say Brexit all the old fogies will die off and the young will take over but in Labour the old farts will wait it out and the young Corbynites will fall into line ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    Pulpstar said:

    Exams weren't particularly hard back around 1996.
    1976/7 was a completely different story (at least that is my excuse).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,126

    You. Voted. Conservative. At. The. Last. Election.
    Did I? In the last few years I've also voted Lib Dem, Green, Indy and yes, Labour. And you have evidently missed the many, many occasions I have called out Islamaphobia on here and elsewhere.

    You might also want to consider that I'm married to a Turkish lady.

    Stop being an idiot.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,237
    edited August 2018

    Today Figaro is going with Macron bewailing the French, Die Welt and FAZ are going with Chemnitz and Islam and the Paddies are going with Dublin versus Tyrone on Sunday.

    Heh. I thought for a minute that somebody had written a comic opera about it.

    The subtitle - "The Useless Precaution" - would fit.

  • DavidL said:

    Root is a very lucky boy. Hopefully he can take advantage.

    You've doomed him.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,299
    Captain's Log Stardate 40579.8 as antisemitism reaches its fith milenium and our destination is Planet Driveyourselfbonkers..........
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,767
    DavidL said:

    1976/7 was a completely different story (at least that is my excuse).
    LOL

    quite so

    though I remember getting O level past papers from the early 60s and thinking - shit, that's hard !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096
    DavidL said:

    Root is a very lucky boy. Hopefully he can take advantage.

    Oh.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,370

    You. Voted. Conservative. At. The. Last. Election.
    And?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,132
    Everyone's a critic. What do those Belgian furrins know about painting anyway.

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1035106450857754626
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    DavidL said:

    Root is a very lucky boy. Hopefully he can take advantage.

    You were saying...
  • When was the last time a Test side overturned a 2 nil deficit to win a series?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    Sandpit said:

    You were saying...
    He's really out of form. Being captain is not helping him at all. I think we should take that off him and let him concentrate on being our best batsman for a while.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    When was the last time a Test side overturned a 2 nil deficit to win a series?

    1937(!)
    https://www.indiatoday.in/sports/cricket/story/can-virat-kohli-s-india-emulate-don-bradman-s-australia-1322743-2018-08-24
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,766

    Everyone's a critic. What do those Belgian furrins know about painting anyway.

    https://twitter.com/guyverhofstadt/status/1035106450857754626

    It doesn't look twattish enough to be a good likeness
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    DavidL said:

    He's really out of form. Being captain is not helping him at all. I think we should take that off him and let him concentrate on being our best batsman for a while.
    Good idea. We are woefully short of talent at the top of the order, as with the earlier Tests in this series it’s going to be the middle order making the runs.
  • Sandpit said:
    I reckon this test series will see the end of the test careers of Cook, Jennings, and maybe Broad.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,237

    Actually that gives details about one universities interpretation of a different (but similar) definition. That's not the same thing. The examples are here and they make it explicitly clear that criticism of Israel is permissible: https://www.holocaustremembrance.com/working-definition-antisemitism

    So which example do you have an issue with?

    Do you have a problem with: "Accusing the Jews as a people, or Israel as a state, of inventing or exaggerating the Holocaust"?
    The article is also by one Ben White, who is a hardly an objective commentator.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,132
    Pulpstar said:

    Oh.
    Has anyone used the pun Instant Sharma yet?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,099
    Sean_F said:

    The SDP had everything going for them, except the most important thing of all. Luck.
    But, their offering was pretty insipid in an era where Britain was facing some serious problems.

    Whilst many people baulked initially they ultimately concluded Mrs.Thatcher’s programme was probably necessary.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,959
    Sandpit said:

    Good idea. We are woefully short of talent at the top of the order, as with the earlier Tests in this series it’s going to be the middle order making the runs.
    I'd also like to get him back to number 4. With Jennings and Cook struggling to last more than a few overs he's in way too soon.
  • England cricket team like the Labour Party have major problems that they appear unable to address.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,096

    It doesn't look twattish enough to be a good likeness
    There's this available for £70 - https://www.artfinder.com/product/a-warning-from-history/#/ .

    No idea why the Farage painting would be worth 25 grand. Clearly noone else think so either.
This discussion has been closed.