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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An awful amount of excrement has just hit the fan for Trump
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » An awful amount of excrement has just hit the fan for Trump
BREAKING: Michael Cohen says he was directed to violate campaign law at the direction of a candidate for federal office https://t.co/kVdINYkpI3 pic.twitter.com/xa4XAexv1V
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You can get 3/1 on Trump to go before 2020, which I think is a fun bet if nothing else. If you haven't spent all your petty change on popcorn of course...
That actually makes sense. Trump isn't going any time soon for many reasons, not least of which is that the Dems wouldn't want to get rid of him before 2020 even if they could, which they probably couldn't anyway.
He's toxic for the GOP. They should have held the House comfortably but it was looking bad for them even before all this shit dropped on them. I think the House has gone for them now.
Maybe the Senate comes into play now? On Betfair you can get 9/1 against the Dems taking it. It's a hell of a stretch and a lot of Republican voters distinguish their Senate Reps from Trump, but I guess you have to believe the odds will shorten now. Maybe a trading bet but.....
I know sometimes it can be difficult to tell
But I wonder if the Trump fans won't just shrug this off. "Some sleazy guys I've never heard of did some plea bargains to implicate Trump, when will they stop ganging up on him?" They might concede that his judgment is choosing associates is proving sub-optimal.
I doubt a single one of his base will be turned by any of this.
He will scream 'fake news', 'fake judges' and just pardon.
Hope I am wrong.
It makes it impossible for the evidence to be tested properly by a court. It is not how I think justice should be done.
FWIW, I think 8.8 is far too short. I doubt there's time for an impeachment trial this year and I simply can't see him resigning, no matter how bad things look (not least because if resigning wouldn't get him off any legal hook and while Pence could pardon him, that would kill Pence's presidency stone dead).
https://twitter.com/RepAdamSchiff/status/1032015975539978246
Marvellous!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1032017630662729728
Even if you put them in the Dem column, then they can only afford one loss between Nevada, Arizona and Texas (all Republican), and their existing seats (including Montana, West Virginia, Missouri...).
FPT "Boring conversation anyway! Luke, we're gonna have company!"
https://crooksandliars.com/logan-murphy/shocking-fox-news-labels-disgraced-re
He can pardon others and himself but that's no immunity against impeachment. Indeed, if he did start dishing out pardons to his former associates, that'd be more likely to bring impeachment on.
You have to wonder why so many Republicans on the Hill have decided not to oust Trump but a surprising number decided to retire from Congress when they didn't need to. They don't owe their positions to him but some of them are sure as hell in a position of knowing and being involved in some notable dealings. Plenty more know its as rotten as a medieval beggar.
Then there is Prague. What was Cohen doing there?
My Attorney Got Arrested
Remember if a President commits a crime in office associated with abuse of that office, it needs Congress. If its unrelated or before he became president, Congress may not need to be involved.
It was Nixon's abysmal poll ratings post Watergate which ended his Presidency
Two men have been found with bullet wounds in the garden of a west London home after a group of people was shot at near a Tube station.
Again, whether this news moves the dial at all is another matter.
I'm not saying it's impossible. It's just very unlikely. The Dems have to get lucky everywhere. They can't afford a single misstep.
https://twitter.com/autumnbragwell/status/1031328234607181826
Personally, I think the GOP establishment are going decide soon to cut their loses and throw Trump under the bus. Maybe Pence too: although he’s more to their taste he’s tainted and a bit too whackadoodle religiously. Getting Paul Ryan into the White House while they still can must be looking more and more attractive to them.
How correlated Senate seats are is an interesting queston and one that could probably be quantified pretty accurately. But remember party can also affect things indirectly. For example a buoyant national party will be able to give their candidates more money.
Ryan is retiring in November
You could end up in a situation where no mandate is ever valid again.
Has he, er, read the charges?
I point out again to anyone following this. A surprising number of GOP guys on the Hill are not running again. They know, Ryan knows plenty well about some of the money sources. This isn't just going to reflect on Trump its going to reflect on swathes of the party.
The actual legal papers around Cohen's charges reveal, not surprisingly, a lot more detail than the headline.
I am not sure that is anything to wish for.
Assuming Democrats take Congress, then it would be one of their number. And I do not see that is a way of establishing legitimacy for any President.
Far more likely would be to inflict maximum damage on the Republicans and let them serve out the end of this term in hope of a big Electoral College win in November 2020.
Trying to gain the presidency mid-term by way of impeachment might be legitimate in terms of the constitution - but it is no way democratic or desirable.
https://twitter.com/ColMorrisDavis/status/1032042875935186951
Yes I know the Electoral Commission found you didn’t break any technical rules.
But stop and think
Michael Brown stole money from pensioners. And you guys were happy to keep it. Despicable.