politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prospect of Johnson as leader should make Theresa’s positi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The prospect of Johnson as leader should make Theresa’s position a bit more secure
Much has been written about the incredible resilience of Theresa May who has managed to hang on to her job now for well over a year after losing the party it’s majority in the June 2017 general election.
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Honestly I think Boris has guaranteed the parliamentary party will do everything in their power to ensure he *never* gets put to the membership.
Including not moving against May as long as he remains an alternative.
In his own idiotic way, he's done more to shore up May's precarious position than anyone.
Except he's on the wrong side of history. In 1940 we had an empire, and we were threatened by upstart countries trying to supplant us as dominant regional or even global powers. Now - we have no empire, there is no threat, the Brexit 'crisis' is entirely of our own making, so is this the behaviour of a delusional Churchill-fetishist, or are there enough people in the country ready to rally around a "blood, toil, tears and sweat" Boris if and when we fall off a cliff economics-wise? I can't see it myself, but then I couldn't see leave winning two years ago...
https://antisemitism.uk/politics/
I thought the Tories getting 50% good 50% bad was not very good until I saw the other parties. Perhaps someone should have a word with Alan Duncan and Andrew Bridgen.
No idea how this will end.
Agree the definition. Claim any "breach" can't be judged retrospectively. He won't resign. Can't be sacked.
"Nothing has changed!"
Who knows. Personally, I'm not convinced by that view.
The shade of puce TSE turns when Boris becomes party leader will not be.
"Nothing has changed!"
This conversation could last some time but fortunately I have a lunch in the sun date beckoning.
A while back, I might have conceded that there was a realistic case for arguing that, for all his faults and lack of attention to detail, he might nonetheless be a good leader, delegating the detailed stuff to others, although it required a bit of a leap of faith. But I don't think that case is arguable any more. He had a golden opportunity at the Foreign Office to show that he could use his talents and reign in his undisciplined phrase-making; it is, after all, a role potentially well-suited to a 'big-picture' style. He didn't take that opportunity to convince us - and more importantly, fellow Tory MPs - that he could be a serious politician, and he now seems to have given up trying altogether.
It's almost as though he has some kind of unconscious fear of his own ambition, which always kicks in and sabotages his own efforts.
Whatever the reason, I don't think it's likely that he'll be Tory leader.
Whilst there is a risk that Boris becomes prime minister, there is also the possibility that he will be outmanoeuvred like last time, and we already have an inept prime minister, so if risking another one is the only way to get rid then it could happen.
At the moment I rate it a 40% chance for autumn 40% for next spring, and 15% before next election. There has to be a 5% chance May will last to next election a la Brown.
That's a big ask.....
I frankly don't see how the niqab represents the "Islamification" of Britain whatever that means. I'm more concerned with men wearing socks over sandals.
On topic, nothing will change until and unless Boris looks the only way Conservative backbench MPs with small majorities will survive. Those who oppose him now will support him if he is the only way to keep them in a job.
For now, Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are between them working well to guarantee the job status of the average Conservative MP with a majority below 5,000 so there's no need to change.
I think a lot will depend on the local elections next year - a bad night for the Conservatives and perceptions may change.
We badly need this debate. Not pointing and laughing at individual women and their dress. By doing the latter he's poisoned the well for the former. Rather than a Churchill for our age, he's more like an Enoch Powell. And, no, I don't mean that as a compliment.
Not doing so is costing him a lot and distracting from the Tories woes.
But I think the real reason is that he thinks he's right and sees no reason to change his views, certainly not to accommodate people he doesn't much care for and who won't vote for him anyway.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1322240/
By and large, we did not join the Conservative Party to deliver the policies of Blair or Miliband.
Do you deny he has drawn a line in the sand, and forced people to choose on which side to stand? I saw Theresa May defending a woman's right to wear the Burqa, which is, in all likelihood, a vote loser for her. Question whether he were right or wrong to do so the way he did, but his aim seems to be obvious, and it has worked.
Roman soldiers posted here wore socks with their sandals. It's a tradition going back millennia.
Mr. (Miss?) Blue, indeed, the wibbling of that nature is most displeasing.
Actually, I imagine that Boris would love nothing more than to be prosecuted for his comments.
The laissez-faire tax cutting small state Conservatives have been as expunged as the Blairites in Labour but none of the Tories seem to have noticed.
That's just great for a PM in a complex, rapidly moving world.
Boris is an oaf but the idea an obnoxious utterance should be considered a criminal offence, and the highest law officer in the land deciding her minions ought to explore the possibility, is alarming.
If 'a good backstory' were the sole criterion for leadership then none of Cameron, Harman, Miliband, Corbyn, or Blair could have become party leader. Love them or loathe them, that would seem excessive. On the other hand we would of course have lost Osborne and Boris too, so it wouldn't all have been bad news.
And grey skies and drizzle must favour the hosts, surely.
Likewise, bikini-wearing models (who were perfectly healthy) have been banned from Tube ads. It seems judging what women wear, and even banning it from advertising or axing their jobs altogether, is deemed fine if you're a puritan, but if you're condemning or questioning burkas rather than bikinis suddenly it's horrendous to tell women what they should wear.
They couldn't forecast the winner of a one-horse race.
Sorry, I'll get my coat.
Same with May, strong and stable was the message, no belief system their either.
We are now entering a phase with the Govt finances being such that positive spending choices can be made. Hence the politicians have a choice and can start to express their beliefs about how they want to improve society.
If we see Boris clearly articulate over the next couple of months what Borisism means for the future then I see a challenge around the time of the October EU summit.
The other contenders have to do the same if they want to be taken seriously, what is Huntism, what is Javidism. It will not be enough to say again "I am the safe candidate."
This could be very healthy for the Tory party. Get some ideas flowing again.
I have a weak perception based on the anecdotal evidence of my own eyes that isn't the case. The niqab doesn't stop people laughing, smiling or talking. I do accept that when women are with men there is far more restraint but when women are together they seem as happy as any other group of women.
What about men forced to wear suits and ties in the heat ? Isn't that degrading or demeaning to be told this is how you have to dress for eight hours per day? I'm fortunate but coming back into Waterloo and seeing the poor sweat-stained slobs trying to maintain a shred of decorum is just pitiful.
I'd love to know what he and May discussed in that long meeting that led to her earlier reshuffle being aborted, but I suspect Brexit strategy was a large part of it.
https://www.politico.eu/article/bernie-sanders-and-his-army-are-losing-2018-us-election/
So May backers can effectively say it is either me or Boris in the words of Thatcher 'TINA - There is no Alternative'
I do think maybe a Burqa ban would be desirable with appropriate protections, exclusions and sunsets.
I think Boris is an amoral, sociopathic arsehole who shouldn't be allowed within a thousand miles of power.
These aren't incompatible positions.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-will-kill-the-sandwich/
If the Democrats do win back Congress they will have the momentum and will be able to say they can risk a more populist leftist as candidate in 2020 due to the unpopularity of Trump and the GOP.
Do not forget only Biden beats Sanders in 2020 Democratic primary polls and Sanders and Warren combined outpoll Biden
To be positive, at least England aren’t half their wickets down by lunch!