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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Leave voters rate leaving the EU as more important than peace in Northern Ireland
At Deltapoll, we asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the #EU and peace in #NorthernIreland. Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important. #Brexit pic.twitter.com/0FqMJAJZgN
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Bit scared by this poll.
They've seemed so *reasonable* up until now.
Who needs a third referendum, let's just park some tanks on JRM's lawn.
Imagine if it was only possible for one of the following to occur, which would be more important to you?
Remaining in the EU
Peace in the Yemen
Nobody wants a return to violence in Northern Ireland. The readiness of Remain, during and after the campaign, to use the spectre of terrorism to try and determine, and then annul, a democratic decision has likely influenced the polling here.
The forced choice (only one can happen) could be read as pitting democracy against terrorism, whereas those on the other side of the fence are perhaps reading it as "Do you want murdering to happen?" (as opposed to "Do you want democracy to happen?").
A poll on whether, in a forced and mutually exclusive choice, people prefer blasphemy laws or terrorism could be interesting.
It is alarming that the situation with the Irish border is seemingly nowhere close to being resolved. Varadkar's decision to end his predecessor's co-operative approach and opt for a combative one is not helpful, nor is the EU's demented request (and the Government's acquiescence) that we somehow resolve the border without knowing what the final trade deal will be.
How can we know how the border will function on a long term basis if we don't know what the basis of our trade will be? It's impossible.
We are pleading, PLEADING with the France and Germany, to give us a deal, ANY deal that will allow us to dig ourselves out of the grave the Tories have dug for us.
This is what taking back control means, apparently. Grovelling prostrate at the knees of our European masters, begging for table scraps.
If you allow you politics to be dictated by terrorists you let them win. In this case, you let them win by virtue of terrorism from past decades. Those sickening Terror fests SF arrange will be all the more relevant.
So stop this false narrative that Brexit makes the Belfast Agreement redundant. What is doing that is SF and DUP failing to deliver. Putting NI peace into Theresa May's hands takes it out of the two women who are really failing us.
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1024272597796761600
As Emperor Kahless the Unforgetable said
'Destroying an empire to win a war is no victory, and ending a war to save an empire is no defeat'
May is so bad at this, we've actually un-negotiated backwards through time.
Leave voters are saying that they really do feel strongly about leaving the EU. I wonder how strongly the mass of Remain voters feel? But it would have to be tested with a different question, after all staying in the EU is axiomatically not compatible with violence in NI.
However, many people (not just leavers) will feel that would-be terrorists shouldn't have a voice in democratic debate anyway and the threat of violence shouldn't be a lever on the system.
When it comes down to it, the question is this: what price are you willing to pay to buy off the threat of violence from terrorists? To me, the idea that we should be willing to subvert democracy (which is not just about voting but about implementing the logical outcome of that vote), is too high a price.
In truth, the question is more about when terrorism or any political violence is justified.
Has anyone tried turning the UK off and back on again?
https://twitter.com/roger_scully/status/1024225257434046464
In reality, it's only a non sequitur if taken at its face value - what it really is is a mask for a campaign to Remain. There's no thought whatsoever in the proposal as to what a second Leave vote would mean.
I think that you are rather over egging the refusal to talk to terrorists angle. We have done so innumerable times in our history, including in Ireland, Africa, Middle East and Asia. Indeed at risk of re-awakening the interminable Palestine discussion over the last week, that is precisely how we got out of the place in 1948.
From this part of the UK it seems what might push the Northern Ireland into the arms of the Republic is a very disorderly Brexit.
The DUP then can't blame anyone else for the mess, they were actively supporting and encouraging a no deal Brexit, they can't credibly blame Westminster.
Will it be enough for the DUP to be replaced by some other party?
*Well late 1978 which means I turn 40 in a few weeks time, which really terrifies me.
And yes, it's also clear that many Remainers care about Northern Ireland only insofar as it's a thick political cudgel with which to drub the Brexiteers.
But, well, you never create hostages to fortune. By being so lazy, the Brexiteers have offered up a huge weapon, and turned their backsides and are demanding to be spanked.
Brexiteers brought this on themselves, NEVER forget this.
You're just rephrasing the results. Brexiteers are relaxed, nay enthusiastic, about allowing a war to take place so they can be seen to be "right".
I mean, I get it. I like to be right too, but I also like to think I'd pause to reflect if I thought people might die for it.
Of course, the idea of a Brexiteer reflecting: now THAT is ridiculous.
In the 1970s my father did 2 tours of NI with the British army, one in Belfast and one in Derry. In Derry some of the men did not come home and one of them was the father of a school friend of mine. I have in all honesty been pretty ambivalent about NI ever since, not least because my dad assured me that if anything the "unionists" were worse than the IRA to deal with.
The DUP will be thrown under a bus [ many DUP voters also voted to Remain, hence they also support the CU ].
The EU will accept this. Of course, Scotland will raise the question, why not them too. After all, the Advocate General gave precisely that opinion saying that Scotland could remain in the SM and CU even if the rUK left the EU.
The BMA confirms why I gave up my membership. I used to pay them to fight for my pay and conditions, not moan about national issues. I prefer to do that myself!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1024263146008207361
Or if it is a crime I didn't do it.
Or if I did do it, Hillary made me do it.
His seat?
His wife and six kids?
His weird medieval catholicism?
Wait I've got it.
It's The Queen.
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1024274947672342530
Carole Cadwalladr 1/3
Arron Banks 9/4
The BMA is stuck halfway between being a Union, and being a Chartered Institution, that's why it often seems so craven in the face of government stupidity and weirdly unwilling to stand up for its members interests.
One response to that is to argue the Leavers are mad (as the EU and many Remainers often do) another is to ask why 52% of the electorate, or 41% on no-deal, if you prefer, feel that strongly about it and what the EU might have done to drive those feelings.
He's a GOPer but didn't vote Trump in 2016, he said this is how it will play out, as Trump will say the following over the next few months
1) There was no collusion
2) Collusion isn't a crime
3) Ok there was collusion but it was the only way to stop crooked Hillary becoming POTUS and ruining again. I'm a patriot because I stopped Hillary from taking power.
Sadly he expects the Trump fans to cheer along and keep on backing their boy.
A worryingly high percentage, but still a clear minority who are looking to trash this country in pursuit of their mad hobbyhorse.
The mistake people who say we shouldn't be dictated to by terrorists are making is not understanding the unique situation and history of the Province.
Society was riven and the peace wall not a figment of someone's dystopian imagination. The vast majority of people there do not want a return to those days. But a significant enough minority are still fighting the war. They want a united Ireland on the one side and those on the other side will fight as vigorously to remain under the Crown.
The Belfast agreement manages to balance all sides' desires and it works. Or has worked.
Saying it is a bunch of terrorists who we should not be giving in to is not seeing the wood for the trees.
We're discussing how long it's got.
There is the telephone call from Trump Jr just after the meeting to a unknown number. If Cohen was in Trump's office at the time of the call plus Trump's tweets immediately afterwards, we could be in for some fun.
BTW, Trump is not worried about criminal convictions. He is more worried about impeachment as he can see the writing on the wall for November.
Mueller also will not give his report until after January 20th.
They have learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.
What a Blairite metric
In other news, Dorset is booming. And I just saw a Cocker Spanisl in a canoe. He hadn’t jumped off at all. Remarkable!
Your strategy is simply to say the EU is the only answer to whatever one posts about.
Loon.
Perhaps you can explain why leaving the EU will bring back terrorism in NI? I admit I'm confused.
And for this selfless act he's demanded only token remuneration of several million pounds a year from the taxpayer.
NATIONAL HERO.
The essential elements of a conspiracy to defraud the United States consist of the following: (1) two or more persons formed an agreement to defraud the United States; (2) the defendant knowingly participated in the conspiracy with the intent to defraud the United States; and (3) at least one overt act was committed in furtherance of the common scheme. See United States v. Treadwell, 760 F.2d 327, 333 (D.C. Cir. 1985); United States v. Coplan, 703 F.3d 46, 61 (2d Cir. 2012), cert. denied, 571 U.S. 819 (2013). The agreement to defraud must be one to obstruct a lawful function of the Government or its agencies by deceitful or dishonest means. Coplan, 703 F.3d at 60–61; see United States v. Davis, 863 F.3d 894, 901 (D.C. Cir. 2017) (explaining that a charge under the defraud clause requires proof that a defendant “knowingly agreed with [the codefendant] (or another person) to defraud the federal government of money or to deceptively interfere with the lawful functions of” a particular government agency). The mens rea is a specific intent to defraud the United States, not willfulness. See United States v. Khalife, 106 F.3d 1300, 1303 (6th Cir. 1997), cert. denied, 522 U.S. 1045 (1998); United States v. Jackson, 33 F.3d 866, 871–72 (7th Cir. 1994), cert. denied, 514 U.S. 1005 (1995). The mens rea requirements of particular substantive crimes, in short, do not carry over to defraud-clause prosecutions. See, e.g., Jackson, 33 F.3d at 870–72 (government need not establish the level of willfulness required to prove a “structuring” offense when it charges the same behavior as a conspiracy to defraud); Khalife, 106 F.3d at 1303 (same).....
As other posters have pointed out downthread this is a non-sequitur designed to make them look unreasonable. There’s no way 30% of the UK are certifiable (perhaps 2%, 5% or 10%.. but not 30%) so... I ask again, why do so many people feel so strongly about the EU? And what might the EU have done to earn that enmity?
https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1024287452087902208
Well he's certainly not bashful...
Verified account @GoodwinMJ
Matthew Goodwin Retweeted Edward Luce
Reversing Brexit would =
-erode public trust
-harden social divides
-pour gasoline on populism
Matthew Goodwin added,
Edward Luce
Verified account @EdwardGLuce
Increasingly clear that if U.K. can somehow reverse Brexit, it would be hammer blow to western populist-nationalism in general. Not just Britain’s future at stake.
12:24 AM - 31 Jul 2018 "
Despite admitting my ignorance, no one seems to want to answer my question. I understand that leaving the EU will cause all sorts of horrific consequences and we'll all die in a cataclysm, but how does the process of leaving cause Northern Ireland to dissolve into factional infighting?
I can understand the attraction of the phlogiston theory and why it took so long to disprove, but this one seems stickier.
You have to break a few eggs to make a Republican omelette.
Ta.