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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A second Jewish LAB MP who has dared to criticise Team Corbyn on antisemitism faces party discipline
Second MP under investigation in Labour party antisemitism row https://t.co/C0c3V0uiY4
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Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.0
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The purging will continue until morale improves...0
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What seems to play best in both communities is the impression that the other party is prejudiced against them.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
If what I heard is what he said then Ian Austin definitely deserves some kind of charge even if it is only to the extent of a warning.0 -
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.0 -
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.0 -
TheJezziah said:
What seems to play best in both communities is the impression that the other party is prejudiced against them.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
If what I heard is what he said then Ian Austin definitely deserves some kind of charge even if it is only to the extent of a warning.
Like it.RobD said:The purging will continue until morale improves...
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Has the Labour Party responded to Nexhmije's letter? The deadline was 4pm on Wednesday 25th July.0
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The UK is now 5% muslim and 0.5% jewish so it's a net electoral positive for JC. He knows exactly what he's doing...asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
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Clearly this is antisemitic. Has anyone suggested it is not? The tweet in the OP describes its author as a supporter rather than member. The Twitter thread links back to Facebook where the comments are unanimous in condemnation.0
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Not necessarily - it depends on concentration of voters, whether seats are marginal or not (eg a vote in Barnet may be more valuable than, say, Tower Hamlets) and whether there is any spillover effect on other votersDura_Ace said:
The UK is now 5% muslim and 0.5% jewish so it's a net electoral positive for JC. He knows exactly what he's doing...asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
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Btw, is Ian Austin Jewish as described in the headline? His adoptive parents were, but Judaism is passed via the birth mother and not by adoption. He might be, I don't know, but one does not need to be Jewish to be appalled and offended by antisemitism.0
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Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.0 -
The headlines I've seen described him as adopted by Jewish parents rather than just saying Jewish... I guess you could say he isn't Jewish by actual genetic lineage, he is though by adopted heritage (I like to think if you choose to make your adopted parents as if your real parents) if he chooses, and then whether he is actual religiously Jewish?DecrepitJohnL said:Btw, is Ian Austin Jewish as described in the headline? His adoptive parents were, but Judaism is passed via the birth mother and not by adoption. He might be, I don't know, but one does not need to be Jewish to be appalled and offended by antisemitism.
Going by the headlines I've seen I'm guessing he isn't thought of as Jewish although it is the first time I've seen it brought up (maybe earlier today) regarding a Jewish link with him so I'm guessing.0 -
I’ve just read the guardian articleDecrepitJohnL said:Btw, is Ian Austin Jewish as described in the headline? His adoptive parents were, but Judaism is passed via the birth mother and not by adoption. He might be, I don't know, but one does not need to be Jewish to be appalled and offended by antisemitism.
The most disturbing thing about it is theLabour Party spokesman’s defence of Corbyn’s comments.
They conflated an out and out terrorist attack with a error made in the heat of battle and which Israel acknowledged to justify Corbyn’s claim that Israel may have launched an unprovoked asssult on innocent Egyptians.
FFS Labour. Wake the fuck up.0 -
I was half tempted to make a sarcastic post about how the Conservatives were promoting Islamophobia to win the Jewish vote to be honest. I did assume it wouldn't go down as well as the more serious suggestions the other way.Foxy said:
Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Which when added to the ravings of SeanT, the popularity of people like Tommy Robinson and the negative use of Muslims to win the Brexit referendum vote helps explain why the Conservatives have concluded they haven't got an Islamophobia problem but a vote winner... outside of maybe the Muslim community itself.0 -
The tweet referenced is almost bad enough to be a spoof. Are we sure it's not from a Russian troll farm?0
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+1Charles said:
Not necessarily - it depends on concentration of voters, whether seats are marginal or not (eg a vote in Barnet may be more valuable than, say, Tower Hamlets) and whether there is any spillover effect on other votersDura_Ace said:
The UK is now 5% muslim and 0.5% jewish so it's a net electoral positive for JC. He knows exactly what he's doing...asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
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@ rcs1000 Have you found any good bakeries for bread yet? How are you enjoying LA?0
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It's a disgusting tweet.
Everyone's missed the important question so far: why is the background filled with pink unicorns?0 -
Following it back to Facebook like Decrepit did and reading the comments seem to indicate that the people who did have him as a mutual friend on facebook didn't know who he was, someone mentioned about his about section being blank (couldn't search the guy without logging in myself) and the one person who mentioned removing him as a friend didn't say it in a very personal way like you would with somebody you know in real life (or at least to my eyes) someone else mentioned about it possibly not being his real name though they looked like they were guessing.MTimT said:The tweet referenced is almost bad enough to be a spoof. Are we sure it's not from a Russian troll farm?
So plausibly a troll but impossible to know really.0 -
My attention went immediately to the push-me pull-me.JosiasJessop said:It's a disgusting tweet.
Everyone's missed the important question so far: why is the background filled with pink unicorns?0 -
Bread remains an issue. I have found a good - but incredibly expensive - deli, which sells decent baguettes. The price, however, would make you blush.rcs1000 said:
Well, I'm currently in Hawaii (Aloha!).MTimT said:@ rcs1000 Have you found any good bakeries for bread yet? How are you enjoying LA?
Generally, I love it. The ocean, the mountains, the weather are all great.0 -
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Bethnal Green and Bow. Bradford West. Perhaps only George Galloway can win such seats. But it is clear that the Muslim vote can be delivered en masse.rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Of course, much like the SNP, they'd likely back Labour in a hung parliament. But better to have control of the MPs directly.
Well New Labour weren't averse to this sort of thing. They certainly wanted to make sure people knew about the Jewish heritage of Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin.Foxy said:
Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.0 -
2018: the Conservative Party tears itself apart over how to implement the biggest political change since World War 2.
2018: the Labour Party tears itself apart over how to implement the biggest atrocity of World War 2.0 -
"But it is clear that the Muslim vote can be delivered en masse."tlg86 said:
Bethnal Green and Bow. Bradford West. Perhaps only George Galloway can win such seats. But it is clear that the Muslim vote can be delivered en masse.rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Of course, much like the SNP, they'd likely back Labour in a hung parliament. But better to have control of the MPs directly.
Well New Labour weren't averse to this sort of thing. They certainly wanted to make sure people knew about the Jewish heritage of Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin.Foxy said:
Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Is it clear? On what basis?0 -
The two examples I cited. And Tower Hamlets voting for Lutfur Rahman. I did qualify with the statement that it might need a personality at the local level, so perhaps the threat is local rather than national.JosiasJessop said:
"But it is clear that the Muslim vote can be delivered en masse."tlg86 said:
Bethnal Green and Bow. Bradford West. Perhaps only George Galloway can win such seats. But it is clear that the Muslim vote can be delivered en masse.rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Of course, much like the SNP, they'd likely back Labour in a hung parliament. But better to have control of the MPs directly.
Well New Labour weren't averse to this sort of thing. They certainly wanted to make sure people knew about the Jewish heritage of Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin.Foxy said:
Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Is it clear? On what basis?0 -
The Tory press and party were the same over Ed Miliband, and a bit more recently as I recall.tlg86 said:
Bethnal Green and Bow. Bradford West. Perhaps only George Galloway can win such seats. But it is clear that the Muslim vote can be delivered en masse.rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Of course, much like the SNP, they'd likely back Labour in a hung parliament. But better to have control of the MPs directly.
Well New Labour weren't averse to this sort of thing. They certainly wanted to make sure people knew about the Jewish heritage of Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin.Foxy said:
Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.0 -
There's a long way from those example to the claim that the 'Muslim vote can be delivered en masse', which implies a national perspective, not a local one.tlg86 said:
The two examples I cited. And Tower Hamlets voting for Lutfur Rahman. I did qualify with the statement that it might need a personality at the local level, so perhaps the threat is local rather than national.JosiasJessop said:
"But it is clear that the Muslim vote can be delivered en masse."tlg86 said:
Bethnal Green and Bow. Bradford West. Perhaps only George Galloway can win such seats. But it is clear that the Muslim vote can be delivered en masse.rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Of course, much like the SNP, they'd likely back Labour in a hung parliament. But better to have control of the MPs directly.
Well New Labour weren't averse to this sort of thing. They certainly wanted to make sure people knew about the Jewish heritage of Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin.Foxy said:
Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Is it clear? On what basis?0 -
Giving the much talked about on here Muslim instinct to vote for anti-Semitism I assume Labours Muslim vote crashed and the Conservatives took the majority of them....Foxy said:
The Tory press and party were the same over Ed Miliband, and a bit more recently as I recall.tlg86 said:
Bethnal Green and Bow. Bradford West. Perhaps only George Galloway can win such seats. But it is clear that the Muslim vote can be delivered en masse.rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Of course, much like the SNP, they'd likely back Labour in a hung parliament. But better to have control of the MPs directly.
Well New Labour weren't averse to this sort of thing. They certainly wanted to make sure people knew about the Jewish heritage of Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin.Foxy said:
Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.0 -
Bacon sandwich? I think that was more about showing the guy looking like a numpty. I think the press did the same with May eating some chips.Foxy said:
The Tory press and party were the same over Ed Miliband, and a bit more recently as I recall.tlg86 said:
Bethnal Green and Bow. Bradford West. Perhaps only George Galloway can win such seats. But it is clear that the Muslim vote can be delivered en masse.rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Of course, much like the SNP, they'd likely back Labour in a hung parliament. But better to have control of the MPs directly.
Well New Labour weren't averse to this sort of thing. They certainly wanted to make sure people knew about the Jewish heritage of Michael Howard and Oliver Letwin.Foxy said:
Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
The Mail's raking over Ralph Miliband, was, I agree, disgraceful.0 -
My bet on England hosting the 2022 World Cup looking a little more likely to come off this morning.0
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People vote for all sorts of reasons. On here, we tend to be political anoraks who, if we're not tribal members of a political club, examine politics immensely closely and vote accordingly.
The vest majority of the public are not like us. Talking to 'normal' people, voting often tends to be somewhat less rational or evidence-based.
You will have people who vote for a party because they always have like their fathers and forefathers, who vote a way because they are told so by their husbands, because they like or dislike the candidate's gender, because their friend are voting that way, because of that new housing development a rumour says might be built three villages away, because a newspaper tells them to, because it is a Thursday, etc ...
Masses of people don't have the time or inclination to do the sort of reading-up that we do on here into the political situation, and are much more likely to look at evidence that backs up their current biases and views.
Hence why spin and fake news have become so important.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
That's bloody alarming.0 -
F1: didn't put up the pre-race article yesterday because I couldn't get a bet on. So, that'll be coming probably this morning.
In the meantime, I found this tweet which gamblers on the US elections (presidential) might like:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1023244322504892417
Edited extra bit: Perez has revealed that if he hadn't taken the administration step another creditor would have likely seen the team immediately shut down, so he took the alternative approach to keep things running.0 -
Corbyn has allowed himself to be painted into a corner. If he had quickly adopted all the examples in the hours after the initial publication of the draft policy, he could have saved the sutuasitu. But he didn't. He stuck by a position and refused to countenance chsmge.
Then he allowed investigations into Margaret Hodge. The optics of that are awful.
Now we get even more investigations.
When viewed against the backgrounf of the investigations into Livingstone et al, it looks even worse.
But now any shift from the entrenched position will be a major, major climb down. And almost certainly not improve perceptions of Corbyn on this issue.
I don't see his ''out' on this one.0 -
Perez is basically a stalking horse for Mercedes, who didn’t want to be seen as the ones making the decision.Morris_Dancer said:F1: didn't put up the pre-race article yesterday because I couldn't get a bet on. So, that'll be coming probably this morning.
In the meantime, I found this tweet which gamblers on the US elections (presidential) might like:
tps://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/1023244322504892417
Edited extra bit: Perez has revealed that if he hadn't taken the administration step another creditor would have likely seen the team immediately shut down, so he took the alternative approach to keep things running.
The two Indians who owned the team are in a whole load of personal trouble and haven’t been paying the bills, while refusing to sell up for anything less than their wild over-estimate of the value of the team.
The always excellent Joe Saward has a very good piece on the trials and tribulations of Force India. https://www.motorsportweek.com/joeblogsf1/id/00281
It’s unlikely the team will fold, there’s plenty of interest now that the Indians’ valuation doesn’t need to be met.0 -
Off-topic:
There are rumours that Grayling may be about to uncancel the not-not-not-cancelled TransPennine Electrification.
This has been rather a farce for over a decade now. If it does go ahead, let's' hope they've learnt the lessons from the messes on the GW and Edinburgh-Glasgow schemes.0 -
Sort of on topic - got an email about voting on candidates to Labours NEC recently.
Never heard of most of them, but found the tone of some of their pitches a bit depressing. "Vote for me because I am implacably opposed to an alternative faction within Labour" didn't give me a great deal of hope for reduced in-party squabbling....0 -
You wouldn’t have to go far to find mad Conservative anti-Semitic supporters. The Conservative party has not, however, tied itself in knots about the exact dividing line between vehement criticism of Israel and anti-Semitism so there’s no resonance when such examples emerge.
The investigations into Margaret Hodge and Ian Austin display either a very thin-skinned approach to criticism or a conscious attempt to make membership of the party uncomfortable for the leadership’s most strident critics. Because it looks so awful I’m inclined to the latter - the external appearance must have been considered before action was taken.0 -
It hardly matters what the effect is in areas with significant Jewish populations, as they are very few. What matters more is that the general public will take an unfavourable view of this whipping up of the unjustified charge that Labour is antisemitic by Jews and Jewish organisations, and it is likely to lead to a backlash against them. Special pleading by a minority group is likely to increase hostility towards that group, and does not assist their long-term future.rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
It is true that the current Labour leadership is unsympathetic towards Israel, but that is not surprising in those on the left of politics, given that it is a right radical nationalist state. If Labour was actually antisemitic, i.e. hostile to Jews just because of their origin, it would not be introducing a policy to tackle antisemitism, and would not have been so welcoming to people like Jon Lansman (founder of Momentum) or Ed Miliband.
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Political parties acting "a bit stupid" .... well there's a rarity !!TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Substitute "black" for "Jewish" and we have a card from any extreme right wing nut job playbook.0 -
That assumes that the 'general public' will assume that it is 'whipped up' and an 'unjustified charge'.daodao said:
It hardly matters what the effect is in areas with significant Jewish populations, as they are very few. What matters more is that the general public will take an unfavourable view of this whipping up of the unjustified charge that Labour is antisemitic by Jews and Jewish organisations, and it is likely to lead to a backlash against them. Special pleading by a minority group is likely to increase hostility towards that group, and does not assist their long-term future.rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
It is true that the current Labour leadership is unsympathetic towards Israel, but that is not surprising in those on the left of politics, given that it is a right radical nationalist state. If Labour was actually antisemitic, i.e. hostile to Jews just because of their origin, it would not be introducing a policy to tackle antisemitism, and would not have been so welcoming to people like Jon Lansman (founder of Momentum) or Ed Miliband.0 -
That really does sound like victim blaming to me.daodao said:
It hardly matters what the effect is in areas with significant Jewish populations, as they are very few. What matters more is that the general public will take an unfavourable view of this whipping up of the unjustified charge that Labour is antisemitic by Jews and Jewish organisations, and it is likely to lead to a backlash against them. Special pleading by a minority group is likely to increase hostility towards that group, and does not assist their long-term future.rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
It is true that the current Labour leadership is unsympathetic towards Israel, but that is not surprising in those on the left of politics, given that it is a right radical nationalist state. If Labour was actually antisemitic, i.e. hostile to Jews just because of their origin, it would not be introducing a policy to tackle antisemitism, and would not have been so welcoming to people like Jon Lansman (founder of Momentum) or Ed Miliband.
The charge is sticking because there is some truth at the core of it. There has been a failure to act, to acknowledge fault, to deal appropriately and quickly with genuine problems.
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As much as anything else, the idea that Muslims wouldn't attack another Muslim during Ramadan is rather... interesting.Scott_P said:0 -
It's hard for me to take seriously claims that the Labour Party is anti-semitic for a number of reason. It's an absurd posture for any serious Party but for one with such strong historic links to the Jews the mere suggestion jars.
So why is it tying itself in knots, as Alastair puts it? His two suggestions are perfectly plausible. I would suggest a third. It is highly selective in the oppressors it chooses to oppose. Netanyahu's Israel is fair game. The ANC and Mynamar's NLD are not. I seem to recall Robert Mugabe got a bit of a pass too.
I suspect this reflects nothing more than a bit of unattractive posturing that pleases the more 'right-on' members but it cannot be justified, and is of course electorally harmful, as the current Hodge/Austin publicity illustrates.0 -
Sad and scary. Sigh. British politics is a mess. The current party structure coupled with social media seems to enable, amplify and reward those with extreme or downright appalling views. Active party politics seems to be designed for odd balls.
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Quite. Even more worrying is where the next generation of politicians are going to come from? I can’t see many intelligent people wanting to put their families through the constant abuse and threats that now seem to have become a normal part of political discourse.Jonathan said:Sad and scary. Sigh. British politics is a mess. The current party structure coupled with social media seems to enable, amplify and reward those with extreme or downright appalling views. Active party politics seems to be designed for odd balls.
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Deleted. Replied to wrong comment.0
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May called her own party stupid. but that's a good word for Labour. However, they can't stop themselves. In their game of victimhood, the Jews come very low so for some, their instinctive reaction is anger.
It may not be a common trait in Labour, but their nit-picking from the top makes them look hypocritical. An unnecessary own-goal. Or is it merely Jezza sticking to his principles?0 -
The tribalism and leader personality cults in political parties is the heart of the problem. Cyclefree had it right the other day. When you're convinced that your tribe is right, or worse still, righteous, there is seemingly no limit on the things you are justified to say or do.0
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Betting Post
F1: pre-race tosh here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/hungary-pre-race-2018.html
For proper bets, I've backed Bottas to lead lap 1 at 7.5 and Verstappen to be winner (each way) without Hamilton/Vettel at 6.5.
For a silly, tiny stakes bet, I've backed Sainz each way to win at 751, just in case the forecast is bollocks again and half the field ends up sliding off the track.
On the proper bets, Bottas is longer odds to lead lap 1 than the Ferraris. Which is daft. He can't deliberately throw the start, and if Hamilton has a small error the Finn will, all else being equal, go into the lead.
The Red Bull seems tasty in the dry, the Mercedes chews up its tyres, the rear gunners may be sacrificed for the title contenders, and there's not a unrealistic possibility of some of the top four colliding immediately. Of all that, Verstappen will be the beneficiary.0 -
IMV the issue is that Corbyn and his fellow travellers have always been on the side of the oppressed against the oppressors. That is a defining struggle for them.Peter_the_Punter said:It's hard for me to take seriously claims that the Labour Party is anti-semitic for a number of reason. It's an absurd posture for any serious Party but for one with such strong historic links to the Jews the mere suggestion jars.
So why is it tying itself in knots, as Alastair puts it? His two suggestions are perfectly plausible. I would suggest a third. It is highly selective in the oppressors it chooses to oppose. Netanyahu's Israel is fair game. The ANC and Mynamar's NLD are not. I seem to recall Robert Mugabe got a bit of a pass too.
I suspect this reflects nothing more than a bit of unattractive posturing that please the more 'right-on' members but it is fundamentally unjustifiable, and of course electorally harmful, as the current Hodge/Austin publicity illustrates.
In the UK, racism has been a clear example of oppression, and therefore they chose anti-Racism as a position. Which is absolutely fair enough IMO.
But in their minds, the oppressors are 'the rich', and the oppressed are 'the poor'.
However (and stereotyping slightly here), Jews tend to be richer and more successful than many other minority groups. Therefore you can't really be racist against Jews, because they're rich and powerful, and therefore on the side of the oppressors.
This is exactly why a series of Labour MPs had to stand up in parliament and say: "anti-semitism is racism." - quite a ridiculous situation to have got into.
From what I've read and seen, I'd class Corbyn as a 'passive' anti-Semite. He'd never dream of himself as being one, but he's all too willing to fall into classic anti-Semitic thinking. Because he can't be racist because he's been anti-racist all his life ...
As you say, the problems with this sort of thinking extends outside the UK: groups that are 'oppressed' in this country might be the 'oppressors' in other countries.0 -
We re-learned that lesson from the era of Gordon Brown.Jonathan said:The tribalism and leader personality cults in political parties is the heart of the problem. Cyclefree had it right the other day. When you're convinced that your tribe is right, or worse still, righteous, there is seemingly no limit on the things you are justified to say or do.
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The muslim vote is (and always has been) heavily Labour, and Muslims are (rightly) assuming positions of influence within the party. It's simplistic (and wrong) to suggest Labour has this problem as a result of an electoral calculation, or that the ordinary muslim voter is going to be heavily swayed in this way. Labour's world view does however tend to lump people into "interest groups" and in foreign policy it will be under pressure to adapt its world view and policy priorities accordingly, particularly in Corybn's London back yard where the party will have many influential muslim members.Foxy said:
Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.0 -
Dan Hodges in the Mail on Sunday, reckons there is a going to be a breakaway by a group of Labour MPs in the PLP.0
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More striking and convincing examples from history come to mind.SquareRoot said:
We re-learned that lesson from the era of Gordon Brown.Jonathan said:The tribalism and leader personality cults in political parties is the heart of the problem. Cyclefree had it right the other day. When you're convinced that your tribe is right, or worse still, righteous, there is seemingly no limit on the things you are justified to say or do.
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Thanks for the thoughtful reply, Josias.
The only point I would like to make in response is that it is important to distinguish between The Jews and The State of Israel. The latter appears to be perceived by many on the left as a legitimate Bogeyman - the former definitely not.
Hamas, the PLO and the like are of course not Bogeymen at all, but Oppressed Minorities. Oi vey.
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The original point was based around it going down well with the Islamic community but as pointed out we pretty much holds the seats where they are a factor anyway, that would be no reason to do so.JackW said:
Political parties acting "a bit stupid" .... well there's a rarity !!TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Substitute "black" for "Jewish" and we have a card from any extreme right wing nut job playbook.
The far right approach does win votes for parties but it also has a low ceiling that would generally undercut a major party.
I do have to fully cede the point on political parties acting a bit stupid though!0 -
If you have a break away MP group it makes a general election far less likely short term.0
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I'd be a lot happier if our current parties were only a 'bit' stupid. 'Mind-bendingly cretinous' would seem a more apt description.TheJezziah said:
The original point was based around it going down well with the Islamic community but as pointed out we pretty much holds the seats where they are a factor anyway, that would be no reason to do so.JackW said:
Political parties acting "a bit stupid" .... well there's a rarity !!TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
Substitute "black" for "Jewish" and we have a card from any extreme right wing nut job playbook.
The far right approach does win votes for parties but it also has a low ceiling that would generally undercut a major party.
I do have to fully cede the point on political parties acting a bit stupid though!0 -
Dan Hodges might be right but does have rather a track record over the years of letting wishful thinking cloud his crystal ball.old_labour said:Dan Hodges in the Mail on Sunday, reckons there is a going to be a breakaway by a group of Labour MPs in the PLP.
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WTF ?daodao said:
It hardly matters what the effect is in areas with significant Jewish populations, as they are very few. What matters more is that the general public will take an unfavourable view of this whipping up of the unjustified charge that Labour is antisemitic by Jews and Jewish organisations, and it is likely to lead to a backlash against them. Special pleading by a minority group is likely to increase hostility towards that group, and does not assist their long-term future...rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
“...does not assist their long term future...”
Just what do you mean by that ?
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Mr Jessop,
"Therefore you can't really be racist against Jews, because they're rich and powerful, and therefore on the side of the oppressors."
With the Labour extremists, every person in an oppressed group is a revolutionary hero. Every member of an oppressing group is always a villain. Childish simplicity, but easy to remember.
Jezza circa 1968 had sympathy for that view. Unfortunately, Jezza 2018 retains that view.
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I have begun to wonder if Daodao is actually a reincarnation of RodCrosby.Nigelb said:
WTF ?daodao said:
It hardly matters what the effect is in areas with significant Jewish populations, as they are very few. What matters more is that the general public will take an unfavourable view of this whipping up of the unjustified charge that Labour is antisemitic by Jews and Jewish organisations, and it is likely to lead to a backlash against them. Special pleading by a minority group is likely to increase hostility towards that group, and does not assist their long-term future...rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
“...does not assist their long term future...”
Just what do you mean by that ?
Seems unlikely though as there have been no shrewd comments on the American scene to make up for the anti-semitism.0 -
Mr. JohnL, aye, I was thinking that.
A significant split could be interesting, though. A soft centrist party could attract a number of blue defectors too. May spell doom for the Lib Dems, though.0 -
I don't think they would see it that way. Rather, they could merge with them to form a significant new third force under a different name that would finally underline the coalition for them. That would give a new party a nationwide organisation and slew of candidates in every seat as well.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. JohnL, aye, I was thinking that.
A significant split could be interesting, though. A soft centrist party could attract a number of blue defectors too. May spell doom for the Lib Dems, though.
Because let's face it, in their current form they're going precisely nowhere.
It's a pipe dream, but most such things are. 1981, 1931, 1902, 1886 all proved more or less phantasmic. Essentially if you merge two smaller parties you combine their basic irrelevance, if you merge a smaller party with a larger one the smaller one gets absorbed and two large parties have no need to combine in our system.0 -
Decent suggestions; the weather (how hot, how dry) will have as great an influence on the outcome as anything the drivers can do.Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
F1: pre-race tosh here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/hungary-pre-race-2018.html
For proper bets, I've backed Bottas to lead lap 1 at 7.5 and Verstappen to be winner (each way) without Hamilton/Vettel at 6.5.
For a silly, tiny stakes bet, I've backed Sainz each way to win at 751, just in case the forecast is bollocks again and half the field ends up sliding off the track.
On the proper bets, Bottas is longer odds to lead lap 1 than the Ferraris. Which is daft. He can't deliberately throw the start, and if Hamilton has a small error the Finn will, all else being equal, go into the lead.
The Red Bull seems tasty in the dry, the Mercedes chews up its tyres, the rear gunners may be sacrificed for the title contenders, and there's not a unrealistic possibility of some of the top four colliding immediately. Of all that, Verstappen will be the beneficiary.
One quibble - Ricciardo’s lack of pace in Q2 was quite explicable: he got a yellow flag in his fast lap. He’s not had much luck this season.
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Starting with RBR's choice of team mate.Nigelb said:
Decent suggestions; the weather (how hot, how dry) will have as great an influence on the outcome as anything the drivers can do.Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
F1: pre-race tosh here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/hungary-pre-race-2018.html
For proper bets, I've backed Bottas to lead lap 1 at 7.5 and Verstappen to be winner (each way) without Hamilton/Vettel at 6.5.
For a silly, tiny stakes bet, I've backed Sainz each way to win at 751, just in case the forecast is bollocks again and half the field ends up sliding off the track.
On the proper bets, Bottas is longer odds to lead lap 1 than the Ferraris. Which is daft. He can't deliberately throw the start, and if Hamilton has a small error the Finn will, all else being equal, go into the lead.
The Red Bull seems tasty in the dry, the Mercedes chews up its tyres, the rear gunners may be sacrificed for the title contenders, and there's not a unrealistic possibility of some of the top four colliding immediately. Of all that, Verstappen will be the beneficiary.
One quibble - Ricciardo’s lack of pace in Q2 was quite explicable: he got a yellow flag in his fast lap. He’s not had much luck this season.0 -
So long as there’s a more active and charismatic leader than VInce....Morris_Dancer said:Mr. JohnL, aye, I was thinking that.
A significant split could be interesting, though. A soft centrist party could attract a number of blue defectors too. May spell doom for the Lib Dems, though.0 -
Trump’s tariffs are not going down well n the midwest:
https://www.sidneydailynews.com/opinion/columns/112560/local-farmer-calls-it-like-he-sees-it
This week the president announced he is offering $12 billion of borrowed taxpayer monies to continue to “have farmer’s backs.” These dollars are nothing more than verification that the president’s protectionist’s trade policies are folly.
Let me tell you a riddle. “I slept with a billionaire because he said he loved me. I expected to make love, but in the morning I realized I was getting screwed. When I went to tell the world, I was offered cash to keep my mouth shut.” Who am I? No, I’m not a model or someone named Stormy. I’m the American farmer....0 -
Mr. B, cheers for that correction/clarification, didn't realise Ricciardo got a yellow flag.
King Cole, that bar's so low even a pixie couldn't limbo dance under it.0 -
I think that's fair comment.Peter_the_Punter said:Thanks for the thoughtful reply, Josias.
The only point I would like to make in response is that it is important to distinguish between The Jews and The State of Israel. The latter appears to be perceived by many on the left as a legitimate Bogeyman - the former definitely not.
Hamas, the PLO and the like are of course not Bogeymen at all, but Oppressed Minorities. Oi vey.0 -
Ricciardo was a little unlucky, being just behind Stroll when he spun in deteriorating weather, so couldn’t improve enough to get out of Q2.Nigelb said:
Decent suggestions; the weather (how hot, how dry) will have as great an influence on the outcome as anything the drivers can do.Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
F1: pre-race tosh here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2018/07/hungary-pre-race-2018.html
For proper bets, I've backed Bottas to lead lap 1 at 7.5 and Verstappen to be winner (each way) without Hamilton/Vettel at 6.5.
For a silly, tiny stakes bet, I've backed Sainz each way to win at 751, just in case the forecast is bollocks again and half the field ends up sliding off the track.
On the proper bets, Bottas is longer odds to lead lap 1 than the Ferraris. Which is daft. He can't deliberately throw the start, and if Hamilton has a small error the Finn will, all else being equal, go into the lead.
The Red Bull seems tasty in the dry, the Mercedes chews up its tyres, the rear gunners may be sacrificed for the title contenders, and there's not a unrealistic possibility of some of the top four colliding immediately. Of all that, Verstappen will be the beneficiary.
One quibble - Ricciardo’s lack of pace in Q2 was quite explicable: he got a yellow flag in his fast lap. He’s not had much luck this season.
BBC seem to think it’s going to be dry, the F3 race starts in an hour or so and is televised on Sky, which should give us an idea of the conditions. https://www.bbc.com/weather/0/3054643
If it’s dry, the red cars have been starting well. Overtaking is not too easy here, Ricciardo could have a real struggle from so far back.0 -
It's bucketing down here in Cannock. We've had 19 hours of rain.
Is it too soon to start complaining about this?0 -
Mr. Sandpit, qualifying was meant to be dry too. Weather can change quickly, so the F3 should be useful but not a guarantee of future conditions.0
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Mr. Doethur, yes.
Plenty more rain here, and much needed it is too. Nice to have cooler conditions too.0 -
Three separate Marist polls came out last week. They were in MIchigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. All were equally bad for the GOP come November.Nigelb said:Trump’s tariffs are not going down well n the midwest:
https://www.sidneydailynews.com/opinion/columns/112560/local-farmer-calls-it-like-he-sees-it
This week the president announced he is offering $12 billion of borrowed taxpayer monies to continue to “have farmer’s backs.” These dollars are nothing more than verification that the president’s protectionist’s trade policies are folly.
Let me tell you a riddle. “I slept with a billionaire because he said he loved me. I expected to make love, but in the morning I realized I was getting screwed. When I went to tell the world, I was offered cash to keep my mouth shut.” Who am I? No, I’m not a model or someone named Stormy. I’m the American farmer....
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/scott-walker-other-gop-candidates-key-midwest-states-trail-democratic-n8950010 -
On Friday, We had thunderstorms. Before them, it was 32 degrees or so. Afterwards it was a barmy 25. That evening it was back to 30+.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Doethur, yes.
Plenty more rain here, and much needed it is too. Nice to have cooler conditions too.
I much prefer the cooler weather.0 -
Indeed, but his is the most recent...IanB2 said:
More striking and convincing examples from history come to mind.SquareRoot said:
We re-learned that lesson from the era of Gordon Brown.Jonathan said:The tribalism and leader personality cults in political parties is the heart of the problem. Cyclefree had it right the other day. When you're convinced that your tribe is right, or worse still, righteous, there is seemingly no limit on the things you are justified to say or do.
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Please ignore-1
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The first hour or so of rain was a bit of a novelty then I wanted my beautiful summer back.ydoethur said:It's bucketing down here in Cannock. We've had 19 hours of rain.
Is it too soon to start complaining about this?
Everyone who complained that it was 'too warm' or 'too sunny' this is on your heads!
In regards to the some Labour MPs breaking away I'm sure Dan Hodges is just building my hopes up falsely again...0 -
How do you implement an atrocity that's already occurred?MarqueeMark said:2018: the Conservative Party tears itself apart over how to implement the biggest political change since World War 2.
2018: the Labour Party tears itself apart over how to implement the biggest atrocity of World War 2.0 -
Lol - are you for real! Polling shows considerable hostility in the Muslim community to both Gays and Jews - and i thought denial was just an long river in N Africa!Foxy said:
Not to mention the rather offensive Islamophobic assumption that many Muslims are going to change their vote because they are itching to vote for an Anti-Semitic party.TheJezziah said:
I don't want to get accused of anti semitism again but as I pointed out previously the idea of Labour doing it to win votes was always a bit stupid....rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.0 -
Your Grace can control the weather?JackW said:
I did advise you last night that you were to be judged and have found you to be a complete shower .... hence ....ydoethur said:It's bucketing down here in Cannock. We've had 19 hours of rain.
Is it too soon to start complaining about this?
Naturally. We're British. When we can't moan about the weather, we feel as though the universe isn't functioning.TheJezziah said:
The first hour or so of rain was a bit of a novelty then I wanted my beautiful summer back.ydoethur said:It's bucketing down here in Cannock. We've had 19 hours of rain.
Is it too soon to start complaining about this?
Everyone who complained that it was 'too warm' or 'too sunny' this is on your heads!0 -
Incidentally I have not seen any mention of this on the site:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-44971287
I'm going to be careful in what I say next. There seem to me to be major legal implications and I think there is a possibility of another agency becoming involved.
In which case there is a truly huge scandal brewing.0 -
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He has said it before on here. Extraordinary.Nigelb said:
WTF ?daodao said:
It hardly matters what the effect is in areas with significant Jewish populations, as they are very few. What matters more is that the general public will take an unfavourable view of this whipping up of the unjustified charge that Labour is antisemitic by Jews and Jewish organisations, and it is likely to lead to a backlash against them. Special pleading by a minority group is likely to increase hostility towards that group, and does not assist their long-term future...rcs1000 said:
Although all the seats with significant Muslim populations are Labour already.asjohnstone said:Probably plays fairly well in the Islamic community though.
This plays badly in areas with significant Jewish populations.
“...does not assist their long term future...”
Just what do you mean by that ?0 -
I think that that piece is a good example of the problem. Corbyn is suggesting that Israel is stirring up trouble between the new Egyptian government (in 2012) and the Palestinians.Scott_P said:
It is an entirely credible accusation. The previous Egyptian government was the main source of weaponry for Gaza which was a significant thorn in Israel's side. Of course they would seek to disrupt that relationship given the opportunity. If you ask cui bono the answer is clearly Israel.
There are some peculiar bits such as the Ramadan suggestion. The fact that it was Egyptian bombers doing the bombing is somewhat glided over. But what makes this suspicion that a government with a long track record of seeking to divide and rule its opponents (for entirely understandable reasons) anti-Semitic? I am not sure I see it.0 -
I have not read the IHRA definition of anti-semitism. Indeed, I have not read the Labour party version either.
In what way, are the two significantly different ?
One post I read said the IHRA definition should be implemented because it was accepted by the Board of Deputies for Jewish people.
Should we also implement a standard on Islamophobia agreed by the Chief Imam of Makkah ?
I, for one, would not immediately agree with that one. In fact, my question will be , who is he ? Just like the BoD. To me they should, of course, have an opinion like everyone else. But no statement should be there just because the BoD is OK with it. That cannot be a condition.
Isn't it the case that today , just like the Church of England of old, that the BoD is the Tory party in prayer in a Synagogue ?
I take it the I in IHRA stands for International. Who agreed the statement of behalf of the International community ? How was that body made up ?
Finally, I would take many of these criticisms of Corbyn more seriously if any of the these people also showed the slightest sympathy for Palestinians, whose lands were seized without reparations, illegal [ in international law ] settlements built on their lands. Orchards, which provided their livelihood destroyed to build these wretched settlements.
One or two will have a sentence buried in an avalanche of attack on Corbyn. The others won't even bother.
Huge injustices including the murder of 6m Jews took place in Europe barely 75 years ago. But I am not sure why Palestinians should pay for that.
In reality, the summary is, that Israel cannot be criticised even in the month when it flagrantly created a law which said only Jews have the right of self-determination in Israel. So much for equality ?
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This is the key piece of insight. How is it possible to say anti-semitic things whilst claiming not to be anti-semitic? Because you don't know what anti-Semitism actually is. I've been making this exact point on the biggest Labour Facebook group - that statements about "there is no anti-Semitism" and "Jeremy is a staunch anti-racist are so often immediately followed by comments that are basic anti-semitism.JosiasJessop said:
From what I've read and seen, I'd class Corbyn as a 'passive' anti-Semite. He'd never dream of himself as being one, but he's all too willing to fall into classic anti-Semitic thinking. Because he can't be racist because he's been anti-racist all his life ...
As you say, the problems with this sort of thinking extends outside the UK: groups that are 'oppressed' in this country might be the 'oppressors' in other countries.
They don't hate Jews. They will tell you in detail how they fight against racism and for all those oppressed by it. And its true - they genuinely aren't racist or anti-semitic. They just think that Israel is a disgusting racist endevour oppressing the palestinians and that it is illegitimate and that its supportwrs use their power and wealth to suppress their right to criticise it and all these Jews complaining about anti-Semitism are part of a monied powerful conspiracy against their beloved Jeremy (peace be upon him) and before they complain about antisemitism how about they apologise for the actions of Israel.
Passive anti-semitism. A wonderful summation by JosiasJessop
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Yes. I have had several conversations with fellow Labour members this week and there is general agreement that corbyns handling of this issue has been a disaster (several new members who joined since 2015 took this line, it's not just the pre-Corbyn generation). But no one mentioned a breakaway as a possible response. It's not a live issue. I can't think of more than a handful of members in my CLP who might be attracted to a new party.DecrepitJohnL said:
Dan Hodges might be right but does have rather a track record over the years of letting wishful thinking cloud his crystal ball.old_labour said:Dan Hodges in the Mail on Sunday, reckons there is a going to be a breakaway by a group of Labour MPs in the PLP.
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This discussion has been closed.