politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » House majority betting moves sharply to the Democrats after 3

System · July 2018

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » House majority betting moves sharply to the Democrats after 3 bad midwest state polls for Trump/GOP

The three states, Michigan,Minnesota and Wisconsin were surveyed by NBC News/Marist polls and are,of course, in the part of the US where Trump very much exceeded expectations at WH2016.

Read the full story here

bigjohnowls · July 2018

1st unlike Trump

RobD · July 2018

1st in the PB electoral college!

tlg86 · July 2018

Libertarian.

Sunil_Prasannan · July 2018

RobD said:
1st in the PB electoral college!

1st like Hillary, you mean

AlastairMeeks · July 2018

Possibly a good time to lay the Democrats. There will be more twists and turns yet.

Fenman · July 2018

Fake news!

bigjohnowls · July 2018

Fenman said:
Fake news!

Fake Business

Alistair · July 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
Possibly a good time to lay the Democrats. There will be more twists and turns yet.

I am no prophet (see my loses on the US election for evidence) but I'm thinking October is going to see a big swing the generic ballot to the Dems as health insurance premiums come due knocking the shine off any minimal tax cuts voters are feeling.

rkrkrk · July 2018

Is there a dramatic shift? It's 1.82 on betfair now, and I think I bet at 1.88 a few days ago?

Sean_F · July 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
Possibly a good time to lay the Democrats. There will be more twists and turns yet.

I can see very little prospect of the Republicans retaining the House. Trump's ratings are similar to those of Obama in 2010 and 2014, which should result in a big swing to the Dems.

Nigelb · July 2018

If real wage growth continues to stagnate of the face of strong GDP growth, they are in real trouble - and perhaps even so if wages do rise.
People might be fine with abolishing Obamacare, but messing with the Affordable Care Act is a different matter...

AlastairMeeks · July 2018

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Possibly a good time to lay the Democrats. There will be more twists and turns yet.
I am no prophet (see my loses on the US election for evidence) but I'm thinking October is going to see a big swing the generic ballot to the Dems as health insurance premiums come due knocking the shine off any minimal tax cuts voters are feeling.

I'm not saying the Democrats won't come good in the end. It is apparent that there is a Trumpian floor. I'm speculating that in the intervening period there will be more polling that is less favourable to the Democrats, lengthening their price, temporarily at least.

Nigelb · July 2018

rkrkrk said:
Is there a dramatic shift? It's 1.82 on betfair now, and I think I bet at 1.88 a few days ago?

I got a chunk at slightly better than evens just over a week ago.

Nigelb · July 2018

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Possibly a good time to lay the Democrats. There will be more twists and turns yet.
I am no prophet (see my loses on the US election for evidence) but I'm thinking October is going to see a big swing the generic ballot to the Dems as health insurance premiums come due knocking the shine off any minimal tax cuts voters are feeling.
I'm not saying the Democrats won't come good in the end. It is apparent that there is a Trumpian floor. I'm speculating that in the intervening period there will be more polling that is less favourable to the Democrats, lengthening their price, temporarily at least.

Those are called buying opportunities.

Pro_Rata · July 2018

No mention of who is defending in these states - as they were surprise Trump wins, I assume there are a number of Democratic defences and perhaps a smattering of marginal Republican congressional districts in these statez. And how much does rust belt swing really predict Deep South swing? As GE 2017 Tory change was predicated on Leave / Remain, what variables might be salient here?

The loss of how many seats are implied by these polls?

Sean_F · July 2018

Pro_Rata said:
No mention of who is defending in these states - as they were surprise Trump wins, I assume there are a number of Democratic defences and perhaps a smattering of marginal Republican congressional districts in these statez. And how much does rust belt swing really predict Deep South swing? As GE 2017 Tory change was predicated on Leave / Remain, what variables might be salient here?

The loss of how many seats are implied by these polls?

If the current generic polling holds till November, and the Dems finish c.7% ahead, they'd probably have a majority of 30-40 in the House.

Nigelb · July 2018

Trade is going to be a key issue in the agricultural states:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/26/trump-trade-war-midwest-anxiety-743413
‘What if this president’s wrong? What if he’s not successful?” said Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association. “There doesn’t appear to be any, any movement forward, in any public way. Are we settling in because we just don’t see any escape or resolutions in the foreseeable future? That’s scary.”

Leeds said the $12 billion in subsidies could buy Trump time politically, placating nervousness in states critical to the GOP’s midterm prospects, especially since the checks are expected to arrive not long before November.

But the value of those checks, when divvied up — there are some 40,000 soybean farmers in Iowa alone — is in question. Leeds said he heard from one farmer who calculated he’d likely receive just a few thousand dollars in subsidies, even as he’s down $150,000 for the season…

Of course a grand trade bargain with China, the EU, or even both, is a possibility, but I'm pretty sceptical that Trump can manage the volte face and negotiations to agree anything substantive in the limited time available.

The 2020 election is rather more of a conundrum.

rottenborough · July 2018

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1022415808008540160

rottenborough · July 2018

Dunt's Law?

Nigelb · July 2018

BTW, Hamilton is available at 5 on Betfair to win in Hungary (and also to top FP1), which I think is good enough odds to have a think about.

Sandpit · July 2018

Nigelb said:
BTW, Hamilton is available at 5 on Betfair to win in Hungary (and also to top FP1), which I think is good enough odds to have a think about.

I’ll have some of that 5 to win the race, thanks.

I’m done betting on FP times, way too many variables such as which tyres someone uses, what mode the engines are in etc. Almost anyone could top the sheets in P1 if they made the effort.

rkrkrk · July 2018

Nigelb said:
Trade is going to be a key issue in the agricultural states:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/26/trump-trade-war-midwest-anxiety-743413
‘What if this president’s wrong? What if he’s not successful?” said Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association. “There doesn’t appear to be any, any movement forward, in any public way. Are we settling in because we just don’t see any escape or resolutions in the foreseeable future? That’s scary.”

Leeds said the $12 billion in subsidies could buy Trump time politically, placating nervousness in states critical to the GOP’s midterm prospects, especially since the checks are expected to arrive not long before November.

But the value of those checks, when divvied up — there are some 40,000 soybean farmers in Iowa alone — is in question. Leeds said he heard from one farmer who calculated he’d likely receive just a few thousand dollars in subsidies, even as he’s down $150,000 for the season…

Of course a grand trade bargain with China, the EU, or even both, is a possibility, but I'm pretty sceptical that Trump can manage the volte face and negotiations to agree anything substantive in the limited time available.

The 2020 election is rather more of a conundrum.

Most of the stuff I've read on this story approaches it wrong. They talk about how free trade republicans are upset, or these farmers won't like having to take the state handouts.

The key question is - do these subsidies make up for the lost sales?
If they don't, then there is going to be trouble for Trump.

Morris_Dancer · July 2018

Got to say I think the weather forecast for right now is wrong.

BBC has 25C feeling like 28C. I feel really comfortable, which is a nice contrast to recent days. Anyway, hopefully that holds true all day.

Speaking of forecasts, Budapest has now changed from thunderstorms to dry throughout Sunday.

david_herdson · July 2018

AlastairMeeks said:
Possibly a good time to lay the Democrats. There will be more twists and turns yet.

I agree. It'd be interesting to know the equivalent figures for Oct 2016. I assume that they weren't *this* bad but elections are always relative games and Trump only had to be more popular than Hillary, which was a low bar. his absolute popularity was less of an issue.

grabcocque · July 2018

It's gonna hit 34 C by teatime.

Fuck this shit.

David_Evershed · July 2018

Gary Lineker backs second referendum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44957901

Gets a slot on the BBC News website.

Nigelb · July 2018

Sandpit said:

Nigelb said:
BTW, Hamilton is available at 5 on Betfair to win in Hungary (and also to top FP1), which I think is good enough odds to have a think about.
I’ll have some of that 5 to win the race, thanks.

I’m done betting on FP times, way too many variables such as which tyres someone uses, what mode the engines are in etc. Almost anyone could top the sheets in P1 if they made the effort.

While that's true, Hamilton is usually quick straight out of the box, and Mercedes don't deliberately run slow in the same way Ferrari has done this season. I think 5 is good odds.

The joker is going to be Ferrari's blown rear wing, if they bring it this weekend (and it works). Though it's likely only of real benefit for single lap pace (as it relies on running the turbo on electrical power, while using the energy of the exhaust gases for downforce benefit), qualifying position is almost as important in Hungary as it is in Monaco....

grabcocque · July 2018

A lame duck Trump will be a joy to behold.

My guess is somehow he'll contrive to become even more erratic.

williamglenn · July 2018

David_Evershed said:
Gary Lineker backs second referendum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44957901

Gets a slot on the BBC News website.

Cue Ed Miliband: "These strikers are wrong at a time when negotiations are ongoing!"

Nigelb · July 2018

rkrkrk said:

Nigelb said:
Trade is going to be a key issue in the agricultural states:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/26/trump-trade-war-midwest-anxiety-743413
‘What if this president’s wrong? What if he’s not successful?” said Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association. “There doesn’t appear to be any, any movement forward, in any public way. Are we settling in because we just don’t see any escape or resolutions in the foreseeable future? That’s scary.”

Leeds said the $12 billion in subsidies could buy Trump time politically, placating nervousness in states critical to the GOP’s midterm prospects, especially since the checks are expected to arrive not long before November.

But the value of those checks, when divvied up — there are some 40,000 soybean farmers in Iowa alone — is in question. Leeds said he heard from one farmer who calculated he’d likely receive just a few thousand dollars in subsidies, even as he’s down $150,000 for the season…

Of course a grand trade bargain with China, the EU, or even both, is a possibility, but I'm pretty sceptical that Trump can manage the volte face and negotiations to agree anything substantive in the limited time available.

The 2020 election is rather more of a conundrum.
Most of the stuff I've read on this story approaches it wrong. They talk about how free trade republicans are upset, or these farmers won't like having to take the state handouts.

The key question is - do these subsidies make up for the lost sales?
If they don't, then there is going to be trouble for Trump.

If they lose the free traders AND fail to make good the farmers, it would be lose/lose.

The farmers really won't like being criticised for taking federal handouts if at the same time they are still losing money...

Nigelb · July 2018

grabcocque said:
A lame duck Trump will be a joy to behold.

My guess is somehow he'll contrive to become even more erratic.

An ex-President Trump would be more gratifying.

AlastairMeeks · July 2018

David_Evershed said:
Gary Lineker backs second referendum.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-44957901

Gets a slot on the BBC News website.

Some Remainers are currently complaining that the BBC website has covered Darren Grimes's crowdfunder.

Personally, I can't see why the BBC is covering either of them.

grabcocque · July 2018

"Serial license fee sponger and crisp-whore Gary Lineker" as he should be called.

Morris_Dancer · July 2018

Mr. B, a key betting snippet will be when Raikkonen gets the new spec engine. That particular race could see him be great value for pole.

Nigelb · July 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. B, a key betting snippet will be when Raikkonen gets the new spec engine. That particular race could see him be great value for pole.

Engine power not quite so important in Hungary, though - so that Red Bull might even be in the mix.

Nigelb · July 2018

grabcocque said:
It's gonna hit 34 C by teatime.

Fuck this shit.

Still my all time favourite political slogan.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottlynchnyc/6301064446

ydoethur · July 2018

Nigelb said:

grabcocque said:
It's gonna hit 34 C by teatime.

Fuck this shit.
Still my all time favourite political slogan.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottlynchnyc/6301064446

Never knew Benedict Cumberbatch had a career as an anarchist!

rkrkrk · July 2018

Nigelb said:

rkrkrk said:

Nigelb said:
Trade is going to be a key issue in the agricultural states:
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/26/trump-trade-war-midwest-anxiety-743413
‘What if this president’s wrong? What if he’s not successful?” said Kirk Leeds, CEO of the Iowa Soybean Association. “There doesn’t appear to be any, any movement forward, in any public way. Are we settling in because we just don’t see any escape or resolutions in the foreseeable future? That’s scary.”

Leeds said the $12 billion in subsidies could buy Trump time politically, placating nervousness in states critical to the GOP’s midterm prospects, especially since the checks are expected to arrive not long before November.

But the value of those checks, when divvied up — there are some 40,000 soybean farmers in Iowa alone — is in question. Leeds said he heard from one farmer who calculated he’d likely receive just a few thousand dollars in subsidies, even as he’s down $150,000 for the season…

Of course a grand trade bargain with China, the EU, or even both, is a possibility, but I'm pretty sceptical that Trump can manage the volte face and negotiations to agree anything substantive in the limited time available.

The 2020 election is rather more of a conundrum.
Most of the stuff I've read on this story approaches it wrong. They talk about how free trade republicans are upset, or these farmers won't like having to take the state handouts.

The key question is - do these subsidies make up for the lost sales?
If they don't, then there is going to be trouble for Trump.
If they lose the free traders AND fail to make good the farmers, it would be lose/lose.

The farmers really won't like being criticised for taking federal handouts if at the same time they are still losing money...

Those factors are relatively minor I think.
Are there many free trade republicans when it actually comes down to political pain in their districts/states? I doubt it. And the farmers get plenty of federal handouts/subsidies already and it hasn't bothered them before.

JohnO · July 2018

grabcocque said:
"Serial license fee sponger and crisp-whore Gary Lineker" as he should be called.

Yes, that’s fine for his supporters but what of those who aren’t?

Nigelb · July 2018

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

grabcocque said:
It's gonna hit 34 C by teatime.

Fuck this shit.
Still my all time favourite political slogan.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottlynchnyc/6301064446
Never knew Benedict Cumberbatch had a career as an anarchist!

Ha !

Morris_Dancer · July 2018

Mr. B, aye, but more engine power is always good. Summer break soon, but after that it's Spa and Monza. If Raikkonen gets a swanky new engine in Italy, that could prove rather handy.

MaxPB · July 2018

grabcocque said:
A lame duck Trump will be a joy to behold.

My guess is somehow he'll contrive to become even more erratic.

Difficult to see how, but agree that he will find a way.

Theuniondivvie · July 2018

Be prepared.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1022160481417609217

SquareRoot · July 2018

Dontcha just love the bbc.. slagging of sky and fully behind Levison 2 until it affected the bbc
. Magical hypocrisy from the dear old Beeb.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-44963548

Stereotomy · July 2018

In the (still unlikely) event of a wave that delivers the democrats the senate and a big majority in the house, I think we'd see the republican establishment turn on a dime. The only thing keeping the GOP hanging together at the moment is the belief that Trump is electorally more of an asset than a liability

rottenborough · July 2018

Farmageddon:

https://inews.co.uk/news/armageddon-scenario-no-deal-brexit/

Shame so many farmers voted to Leave.

SquareRoot · July 2018

Nigelb said:

grabcocque said:
It's gonna hit 34 C by teatime.

Fuck this shit.
Still my all time favourite political slogan.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottlynchnyc/6301064446

Its 35c here in central sussex

CarlottaVance · July 2018

I'm not sure 'pouring petrol on fires' is the happiest of metaphors under the circumstances...

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1022386520538443776

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

rottenborough said:
Farmageddon:

https://inews.co.uk/news/armageddon-scenario-no-deal-brexit/

Shame so many farmers voted to Leave.

Can someone help me find the world’s smallest violin?

rottenborough · July 2018

https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1022437812698841088

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

Disgracefully the England selectors have picked Adil Rashid in the squad for the first test.

A kick in the knackers for red ball cricketers.

SquareRoot · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:
I'm not sure 'pouring petrol on fires' is the happiest of metaphors under the circumstances...

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1022386520538443776

Who gives a feck what Billy Bragg says..

Sandpit · July 2018

Nigelb said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. B, a key betting snippet will be when Raikkonen gets the new spec engine. That particular race could see him be great value for pole.
Engine power not quite so important in Hungary, though - so that Red Bull might even be in the mix.

Yes. I think only Monaco and Singapore are slower races, it’s pretty much a street circuit in layout even though it’s in the country. Red Bull said last weekend that they took all the penalties they did for Ricciardo so as to avoid them in Hungary. They think they’ll compete for the podium this weekend.

Sandpit · July 2018

SquareRoot said:

Nigelb said:

grabcocque said:
It's gonna hit 34 C by teatime.

Fuck this shit.
Still my all time favourite political slogan.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/scottlynchnyc/6301064446
Its 35c here in central sussex

Only 45c here in the Middle East.

David_Evershed · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgracefully the England selectors have picked Adil Rashid in the squad for the first test.

A kick in the knackers for red ball cricketers.

Is that being ballist?

rottenborough · July 2018

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1022436185485000706

ydoethur · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgracefully the England selectors have picked Adil Rashid in the squad for the first test.

A kick in the knackers for red ball cricketers.

When did the England selectors do something intelligent and consistent?

I'm guessing it was some time before the first test (by which I mean the first ever test).

Edit - that seems very harsh on Dom Bess. Incidentally I hope if Moeen comes back that it's Malan who makes way.

Sandpit · July 2018

SquareRoot said:
Dontcha just love the bbc.. slagging of sky and fully behind Levison 2 until it affected the bbc
. Magical hypocrisy from the dear old Beeb.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-44963548

They’re going to try and appeal the Cliff Richard verdict too. Hope the appeal judge adds a zero to their compensation award.
https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/bbc-lawyers-will-ask-permission-to-appeal-sir-cliff-richard-privacy-ruling-in-high-court-over-police-raid-footage/

grabcocque · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:
Farmageddon:

https://inews.co.uk/news/armageddon-scenario-no-deal-brexit/

Shame so many farmers voted to Leave.
Can someone help me find the world’s smallest violin?

NFU members are no more likely to be Brexiteers than the UK as a whole:

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/nfu-survey-of-members-on-eu-referendum/

Nigelb · July 2018

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. B, aye, but more engine power is always good. Summer break soon, but after that it's Spa and Monza. If Raikkonen gets a swanky new engine in Italy, that could prove rather handy.

Monza will be very interesting - Ferrari's real competitive strength at the moment is getting the power down out of corners, which gives them maybe 0.5 sec a lap advantage; Hamilton is brilliant at gaining time in the braking zone.

grabcocque · July 2018

Thanks to that thread we now have Brexit summed up in a single image.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

grabcocque said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:
Farmageddon:

https://inews.co.uk/news/armageddon-scenario-no-deal-brexit/

Shame so many farmers voted to Leave.
Can someone help me find the world’s smallest violin?
NFU members are no more likely to be Brexiteers than the UK as a whole:

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/nfu-survey-of-members-on-eu-referendum/

Only 26% supported Remain.

CarlottaVance · July 2018

SquareRoot said:

CarlottaVance said:
I'm not sure 'pouring petrol on fires' is the happiest of metaphors under the circumstances...

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1022386520538443776
Who gives a feck what Billy Bragg says..

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1022397229670252547

Nigelb · July 2018

Sandpit said:

SquareRoot said:
Dontcha just love the bbc.. slagging of sky and fully behind Levison 2 until it affected the bbc
. Magical hypocrisy from the dear old Beeb.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-44963548
They’re going to try and appeal the Cliff Richard verdict too. Hope the appeal judge adds a zero to their compensation award.
https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/bbc-lawyers-will-ask-permission-to-appeal-sir-cliff-richard-privacy-ruling-in-high-court-over-police-raid-footage/

Are the BBC contesting the principle of damages themselves, or the grounds on which they were awarded ?

Sean_F · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:
I'm not sure 'pouring petrol on fires' is the happiest of metaphors under the circumstances...

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1022386520538443776

The Jews, having forfeited the confidence of the Labour Party, can only win it back by redoubled efforts.

rottenborough · July 2018

CarlottaVance said:

SquareRoot said:

CarlottaVance said:
I'm not sure 'pouring petrol on fires' is the happiest of metaphors under the circumstances...

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1022386520538443776
Who gives a feck what Billy Bragg says..
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1022397229670252547

He may have to change the lyrics to one of his most famous songs now:

I don't want to change the world
I'm not looking for a new England

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

Bring back Dave says the country.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1022389688743673857?s=21

grabcocque · July 2018

Oh, those pesky Jews always letting the Labour party down.

Sean_F · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bring back Dave says the country.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1022389688743673857?s=21

Nobody seems to like Blair and Brown any more.

RobD · July 2018

grabcocque said:
Oh, those pesky Jews always letting the Labour party down.

How have they not closed this whole thing down yet?

Nigelb · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgracefully the England selectors have picked Adil Rashid in the squad for the first test.

A kick in the knackers for red ball cricketers.

Which leg spinner would you have picked in preference ?

rottenborough · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bring back Dave says the country.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1022389688743673857?s=21

Who are these mad people who would rather have May than Blair?

Corbynista I suppose.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

grabcocque said:
Oh, those pesky Jews always letting the Labour party down.

Some Leavers also seem to be obsessed by one Jew in particular.

Horseshoe theory?

rottenborough · July 2018

RobD said:

grabcocque said:
Oh, those pesky Jews always letting the Labour party down.
How have they not closed this whole thing down yet?

Because the leadership don't want to, as so many of their core supporters have the views that are the source of all the concern.

AndyJS · July 2018

Sacha Baron Cohen is probably doing more to help the Democrats than anything the Democrats have done themselves. Once again it's a Brit who has to be relied upon.

Scott_P · July 2018

https://twitter.com/henry_briscoe1/status/1022376606961152005

https://twitter.com/VeeCee30/status/1022363447202332674

rottenborough · July 2018

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bring back Dave says the country.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1022389688743673857?s=21
Nobody seems to like Blair and Brown any more.

Even if you disagreed with every single thing Blair and Brown did, how can you think this shitshow of utter chaos and panic is better run than those governments?

TOPPING · July 2018

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:
I'm not sure 'pouring petrol on fires' is the happiest of metaphors under the circumstances...

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1022386520538443776
The Jews, having forfeited the confidence of the Labour Party, can only win it back by redoubled efforts.

the beatings will continue until...

rottenborough · July 2018

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:
I'm not sure 'pouring petrol on fires' is the happiest of metaphors under the circumstances...

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1022386520538443776
The Jews, having forfeited the confidence of the Labour Party, can only win it back by redoubled efforts.

Isn't it a standard neo-nazi trope that the jews bought the holocaust on themselves?

surby · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

grabcocque said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:
Farmageddon:

https://inews.co.uk/news/armageddon-scenario-no-deal-brexit/

Shame so many farmers voted to Leave.
Can someone help me find the world’s smallest violin?
NFU members are no more likely to be Brexiteers than the UK as a whole:

https://www.nfuonline.com/news/brexit-news/eu-referendum-news/nfu-survey-of-members-on-eu-referendum/
Only 26% supported Remain.

The reason they voted LEAVE was apparently because they had to fill in too many forms. Presumably, the UK government will give them tens of thousands of £'s in subsidy without filling any forms.

williamglenn · July 2018

https://twitter.com/PCollinsTimes/status/1022414363259559936

Sean_F · July 2018

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bring back Dave says the country.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1022389688743673857?s=21
Nobody seems to like Blair and Brown any more.
Even if you disagreed with every single thing Blair and Brown did, how can you think this shitshow of utter chaos and panic is better run than those governments?

It shows what many people think of Brown and Blair that they prefer a government as inept as this one to theirs.

TheScreamingEagles · July 2018

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:
I'm not sure 'pouring petrol on fires' is the happiest of metaphors under the circumstances...

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1022386520538443776
The Jews, having forfeited the confidence of the Labour Party, can only win it back by redoubled efforts.
Isn't it a standard neo-nazi trope that the jews bought the holocaust on themselves?

No.

In Neo Nazi world the holocaust never happened.

Tykejohnno · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgracefully the England selectors have picked Adil Rashid in the squad for the first test.

A kick in the knackers for red ball cricketers.

And Yorkshire cricket,the man should be sacked by the club.

RobD · July 2018

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/henry_briscoe1/status/1022376606961152005

https://twitter.com/VeeCee30/status/1022363447202332674

It's not illegal, is it?

eek · July 2018

Sean_F said:

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bring back Dave says the country.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1022389688743673857?s=21
Nobody seems to like Blair and Brown any more.
Even if you disagreed with every single thing Blair and Brown did, how can you think this shitshow of utter chaos and panic is better run than those governments?
It shows what many people think of Brown and Blair that they prefer a government as inept as this one to theirs.

This entire Brexit mess can be pin-pointed at Blair and Brown who were told that they really needed to introduce a contribution based welfare system and refused to make the minor changes required.

Sean_F · July 2018

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Sean_F said:

CarlottaVance said:
I'm not sure 'pouring petrol on fires' is the happiest of metaphors under the circumstances...

https://twitter.com/WikiGuido/status/1022386520538443776
The Jews, having forfeited the confidence of the Labour Party, can only win it back by redoubled efforts.
Isn't it a standard neo-nazi trope that the jews bought the holocaust on themselves?
No.

In Neo Nazi world the holocaust never happened.

That's for public consumption.

Privately, they think the holocaust did happen, and it was a good things.

MaxPB · July 2018

RobD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/henry_briscoe1/status/1022376606961152005

https://twitter.com/VeeCee30/status/1022363447202332674
It's not illegal, is it?

No, they are funding a legal challenge, not the payment of the fine. It's definitely not illegal. MPs can disagree with the electoral commission as much as the next person.

grabcocque · July 2018

RobD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/henry_briscoe1/status/1022376606961152005

https://twitter.com/VeeCee30/status/1022363447202332674
It's not illegal, is it?

Yes, it's totally illegal to ask others to fund your fine.

Tykejohnno · July 2018

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1022436185485000706

What a remainer wanting a second go, that not changing minds with many on the remain side.

MaxPB · July 2018

grabcocque said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/henry_briscoe1/status/1022376606961152005

https://twitter.com/VeeCee30/status/1022363447202332674
It's not illegal, is it?
Yes, it's totally illegal to ask others to fund your fine.

He's not asking for that, he's asking for money fund a legal challenge to overturn the fine, AIUI.

Nigelb · July 2018

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Bring back Dave says the country.

https://twitter.com/yougov/status/1022389688743673857?s=21
Nobody seems to like Blair and Brown any more.

Nobody seems to like anyone very much.
And the illustration looks like a rather misconceived new set of Royal Mail stamps...

Scott_P · July 2018

RobD said:
It's not illegal, is it?

It doesn't look good for a politician to use taxpayers money defending someone found guilty of electoral fraud...

Sean_F · July 2018

RobD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/henry_briscoe1/status/1022376606961152005

https://twitter.com/VeeCee30/status/1022363447202332674
It's not illegal, is it?

No.

RobD · July 2018

grabcocque said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/henry_briscoe1/status/1022376606961152005

https://twitter.com/VeeCee30/status/1022363447202332674
It's not illegal, is it?
Yes, it's totally illegal to ask others to fund your fine.

Isn't it for an appeal?

And is it actually illegal to pay someone else's fine?

Scott_P · July 2018

https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1022445537000341504

Sandpit · July 2018

Scott_P said:
ttps://twitter.com/henry_briscoe1/status/1022376606961152005

ttps://twitter.com/VeeCee30/status/1022363447202332674

How many of these people outraged at someone crowdsourcing his appeal, were also outraged at narrowing the scope of legal aid? Or do they think he shouldn’t be able to appeal a fine that could bankrupt him?

brendan16 · July 2018

grabcocque said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/henry_briscoe1/status/1022376606961152005

https://twitter.com/VeeCee30/status/1022363447202332674
It's not illegal, is it?
Yes, it's totally illegal to ask others to fund your fine.

It's to fund his legal challenge to the fine - not his fine - as the crowdfunding appeal makes clear.

Perhaps it is right that these matters are handled in a court of law - rather rhan having some unaccountable quango dish out large fines.

tlg86 · July 2018

RobD said:

grabcocque said:

RobD said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/henry_briscoe1/status/1022376606961152005

https://twitter.com/VeeCee30/status/1022363447202332674
It's not illegal, is it?
Yes, it's totally illegal to ask others to fund your fine.
Isn't it for an appeal?

And is it actually illegal to pay someone else's fine?

That's what I read on Guido.

AndyJS · July 2018

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Disgracefully the England selectors have picked Adil Rashid in the squad for the first test.

A kick in the knackers for red ball cricketers.
And Yorkshire cricket,the man should be sacked by the club.

Many people still haven't forgiven Yorkshire for sacking Geoff Boycott in 1986.

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